13 Dec 2016 08:04:32
TB-SEA

According to Morosi, the Mariners have recently talked to the Rays about their excess starting pitching. While they might not have the pieces to pull of a trade for Archer or possibly even Odorizzi, they could be a great fit for a fly ball pitcher like Smyly.

TB SP Drew Smyly

SEA OF Tyler O'Neil and SP Luiz Gohara

With the recent acquisition of Haniger, the Mariners now have some depth at the corner outfield position and could deem O'Neil as an expendable piece. Likewise, Gohara is still years away and would allow the Rays to add a potential middle of the rotation starter or bullpen piece in the lower minors.

1.) 13 Dec 2016
13 Dec 2016 09:19:08
Mariners say no.

2.) 13 Dec 2016
13 Dec 2016 11:54:07
I think the Mariners jump on that.

3.) 13 Dec 2016
13 Dec 2016 12:32:38
In terms of surplus value, Smyly projects to be roughly worth 20 million. According to the updated Point of Pittsburgh studies, a hitter prospect in the 50-75 range is worth 22.5 million surplus. Taking the market into consideration, adding a B level (50 FV) prospect like Gohara seems to account for current level of inflation for starting pitching. If I were the Rays, I would ask for O'Neil, Gohara and one of Zych or Altavilla. Rays would likely add a 40-45 FV prospect to even the deal out (in terms of 40 man roster spots) .

4.) 13 Dec 2016
13 Dec 2016 13:41:14
I think the Rays would a bit more.

5.) 13 Dec 2016
13 Dec 2016 14:40:08
^should say the Rays would want a bit more.

6.) 14 Dec 2016
14 Dec 2016 03:47:00
Drew Smyly just came off a season were he had a 4.88 era, and only has a fairly average 3.75 career era, with 2 years control left. Mariners definitely don't give up 2 of their top 3 prospects for him.

7.) 14 Dec 2016
14 Dec 2016 08:14:21
Surplus value is a complete farce. It's major flaw is that all players are equal and contracts are simply measurable by WAR comparison, or worse PREDICTIVE wins above replacement, and then given a completely arbitrary dollar amount for those wins.

It does not and cannot take into account the player's age, positional availability, player's fit onto team, team payroll, player trends (is the player getting better or worse) . I would even argue that valuing their control years is an arbitrary task that can't be fairly or accurately quantified. Players aren't linear. Surplus value forces us to believe they are.

Your suggestion of Smyly's value is absolutely laughable. For one, how did you arrive at a $20M value of Smyly? I could see $16M, based on the standard $8M/ WAR estimation. Or are you going on his projections? How did you arrive at $20M?

Not only that, but we're talking about a guy who has four years of service accrued, has only two years of control remaining, has never pitched more than 175 innings, and has never been more than an above average player.

Yes, controllable pitching is valuable, but teams aren't giving up two of their premium young players for guys like Drew Smyly.

8.) 14 Dec 2016
14 Dec 2016 08:25:42
Scratch the "never been more than an above-average player". He's never posted higher than 2.2 fWAR, which means he's never been more than an AVERAGE player.