07 Nov 2018 22:44:05
Big name trade ideas:

Yankees get: Paul Goldschmidt
Diamondbacks get: Estevan Florial, Matt Sauer

Why it works for New York: The Yankees have no clear first baseman for 2019. Voit was good in his time in pinstripes, but the Yankees need a sure thing at first if they want a ring in 2019. As for Florial, he's a top 100 prospect. He's an outfielder, but with Stanton and Judge patrolling the outfield the Yankees won't need any help there for a while.

Why it works for Arizona: Arizona's farm system is a straight up disaster. It is unrealistic for them to expect to go deep into October in 2019, so if you get a top 100 prospect as well as a hard throwing righty, it's a start as far as planning for the future.


Red Sox get: Nolan Arenado
Rockies get: Rafael Devers, Jay Groome

Why it works for Boston: Boston's window to win another ring is fast closing. Chris Sale is a free agent next year, as is Xander Bogaerts. JD Martinez will probably opt out if he puts up numbers anything like he did in 2018. Mookie Betts is a free agent after 2020. They have several key free agents this year, including Eovaldi and Kimbrel. Arenado is a massive upgrade for Devers, and if Boston wants to hold on to their core for 1-2 more years, Arenado could be the best upgrade they will get. Say what you want about Coors field, but imagine Arenado hitting 310 to left over the monster. Fenway is one of the few parks in MLB where being a lefty vs being a righty makes a significant difference. But 310 down the line at Fenway is just as good as 347 at Coors.

Why it works for Colorado: We saw this October that Colorado simply can't compete with the elite teams in the NL. Even if they hold on to Arenado, he's a free agent after 2019. No one wants to pitch in Coors field, so if a name like Jay Groome came up, they should snap him up. Devers is under team control for the next 5 years, so he is a perfect player to build a team for the future around. Hitting in Colorado should bolster his confidence as well.


Astros get: Madison Bumgarner
Giants get: Yordan Alvarez, Seth Beer

Why it works for Houston: Dallas Keuchel is as good as gone. The Astros don't want him any more and they have made that clear. What they do want, just like every other team, is an ace in his prime. MadBum is the most dominant postseason pitcher of the last decade. He is still 29. McCann's contract is off the books and Bumgarner makes 5 million dollars less than McCann in 2019 than McCann made in 2018. if you call up Garrett Stubbs, you have a reliable every day catcher who hit 310 in triple A in 2018.

Why it works for San Francisco: Time to tear it down for them. Back to back disastrous seasons. Even with Bumgarner they aren't going anywhere. Yordan Alvarez is a top 50 prospect, and Seth Beer is too easily overlooked. He won the Golden Spikes award at Clemson, and is a promising young talent.



These are far-fetched, but not too far fetched. Let me know what y'all think.


1.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 01:50:31
That's a terrible trade for Colorado. You have Devers, who the Sox already sought to replace and Groome who has both off-field issues and injury issues.

And the Giants would laugh hysterically at that trade offer. It would require either Whitey or Tucker. Maybe both to convince SF to get rid of him.


2.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 04:49:09
The Red Sox are the only fit for Arenado as far as contending teams go. Here are the 2018 playoff teams and their 3rd baseman

AL:
Yankees - Andujar
A's - Matt Chapman
Red Sox - Rafael Devers
Astros - Alex Bregman
Indians - Jose Ramirez (Kipnis at 2nd)

NL:
Brewers - Travis Shaw (Don't overlook the 32 home runs)
Rockies - Arenado
Dodgers - Turner
Braves - Johan Camargo (Not Arenado but 272 19 HR and 76 RBI the Braves aren't giving up any of their farm system. )
Cubs - Bryant

If the Rockies realize they aren't good enough to win it all, they're shopping Arenado. Find me a better contending fit for Arenado.


As for Bumgarner, I can agree with you somewhat, but his stock is way down from where it used to be. I don't think the Giants would laugh hysterically at the offer, but Whitley or Tucker would make it a sure thing.


3.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 05:18:29
Haha. You're joking right? If you think the Red Sox are the only team willing to move players around to fit Arenado, you're delusional. The Cardinals, Braves, Indians, Angels, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, and Brewers can all move players around to different positions. Utterly laughable.

Not to mention, the price you suggested is comical. I don't think the Red Sox have a package of 4 good prospects they can give for Arenado right now.

Also, regarding Bumgarner. No. The Giants are not moving their most valuable asset for anything short of a stupid package the other team is giving up. If you think they will, you don't pay one bit of attention to what the Giants ownership has said.


4.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 09:56:39
The Cardinals aren't contending for a ring next year. The end.

The Braves couldn't move players around. Their infield is Camargo, Swanson, Albies and Freeman. They could trade one of Camargo or Swanson but they're not giving up any prospects.

Indians - "oh yeah, let's shake our lineup by moving our near 40/ 40 3rd baseman. " You don't know much if you think Ramirez or Lindor are moving in the infield. If you think the price I put on for the Red Sox' deal for Arenado is laughable, tell me what the Indians will give up. Triston McKenzie isn't going anywhere, and they don't have anyone worthy of a Nolan Arenado deal on the big league roster if they're looking to contend. Nolan Jones is the only prospect they would consider giving up, but they don't need Arenado anyway.

Angels - Not competing in 2019, no prospects to give up except Jo Adell. Next

Yankees - Andujar, Torres, Didi when he's healthy, and an uncertain first baseman - see my Goldschmidt deal. There is no need for an offensive upgrade at third. 297, 27 HR and 92 RBI is good enough for me.

Phillies - They could fit Arenado but they're going after Machado and not giving up their farm system. Sure he's an upgrade from Maikel Franco but the Phillies are smart enough to take 4 years of control of Franco over 1 year of Arenado. That said, Alec Bohm is a valuable trade chip. Even if the 2 teams did get a deal done, there would be nowhere to play Franco, one of the best bats in the lineup, because of the DH. Machado is priority number one for them at this point, and Arenado is on their radar but not a concern.

Cubs - Not sure Kris Bryant's going anywhere. Next

Brewers - Keston Hiura is their only top 100 prospect, and they are in a simliar position to Cleveland. No dispensable piece worth an Arenado trade if they plan to contend again in 2019.


Back to Bumgarner - Owners say things because they want to squeeze stupid deals like you said. Let's say you're going to a store. You're trying to buy something. You think it's worth 3 dollars, but the store manager says its 5 dollars. You are more likely to pay the extra dollar. This is what Giants ownership is trying to get from teams. That extra little bit. Bumgarner is considered one of the best in the game, but at this point it's on reputation rather than performance. If the Giants don't think about this, they can't expect to get the extra little bit they are trying to get teams to pay. The price they want will scare off a lot of teams.


5.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 14:20:00
So looks like we got another person on here with an irrational defense for terrible posts. So you do realize that most of these teams could use an upgrade at 3rd. For instance the Yankees, Andujar is not great defensively. They could move him in a trade such as Kluber or move him to another position. The Cubs have tried Bryant out in the outfield before. It doesn't matter if a team is going to be a contender or not when going after players. Just because there is already a player at that position does not mean a team cannot go after another player at that position and either trade the other or move one of them to another position. Examples; Stanton, Rodriguez, I believe Chipper Jones moved position for a brief time.


6.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 17:22:20
You're right, Flappy, no team is smart enough or bold enough to move players around the diamond to make room for a perennial MVP candidate. And none of them have willingness to move prospects. You're hilarious.

As for Bumgarner: Just stop talking. I'm a life long Giants fan. I've listened to countless interviews and read every article out there. When Larry Baer says they aren't interested in doing something, believe him. He's perhaps the most forthright and predictable owner and leader in baseball.

Should they trade Bumgarner, it'll be for a return they can't turn down. I'm telling you, they won't accept that return. They'd rather sell tickets for a sinking ship than try to float along on a dinghy. It's what they do. And ownership won't approve of a trade unless it comes back with a top 20 prospect who is major-league ready.


7.) 08 Nov 2018
08 Nov 2018 19:54:17
I'd like to get back to your trade for Arenado, though.

You have Devers and Groome. If this were 2 years ago, I think it'd be a return the Red Sox would totally balk at. Now, I think they'd laugh their way to the bank if they could pull it off.

Most scouts have completely soured on Groome, at least to the point of what he is. He's not the runaway ace everyone thought he'd be. He was walking 4-5 guys per inning before his TJ Surgery, and missing development time isn't going to help his command any. Fangraphs has him as a 45-value future (highest is 80, lowest is 20), something which every team in baseball.

Then you have Rafael Devers, who really hasn't been that impressive, honestly. A park-neutralized 97 wRC+ in his career. That makes him below league average. Add in his below average fielding, I can see why the Red Sox want to replace him.

I think for the Red Sox to actually land Arenado, it would take this: Chavis, Groome, Eduardo Rodriguez, and C. J. Chatham. And I think the Rockies still turn that down in favor of other offers.

The Red Sox farm system is not that stellar anymore. They would have to offer significantly more than all but 5-6 teams to land an elite player via trade.


8.) 09 Nov 2018
09 Nov 2018 01:20:20
I agree with some of the points you made in the Arenado deal, but not all of them. First off, I don't think the Red Sox would have balked at that return back in 2016. Arenado was a star back then as well. He has been one of the best hitters in the NL for the past 4 years. If this deal was in 2016, the Sox would have 3 years of control for him instead of 1. Devers was one of the best prospects in the game, but the Red Sox had a nucleus featuring Betts, Price (albeit he has been disappointing), Benintendi, Porcello (2016 AL Cy Young), Pedroia (who was still good), Bogaerts so with that in mind I think they take the deal - 3 years of Arenado for Groome and Devers (both top prospects back then) . Not to mention they had prospects who LOOKED like they were going to be superstars (Moncada, Kopech) so I think they take Arenado and keep those 2, who they would later use to trade for Chris Sale.

Second, even though Devers had a park neutralized 97 wRC, he had clutch hits in the postseason, and hit 21 homers in 120 games this year. He has 5 years of team control left (as far as I know), and wRC doesn't matter if we have him hitting in Coors field. Not to mention he's still only 22, so his glove and head have plenty of time to improve. Just out of curiosity, what's Arenado's just so we can compare.

Third, the Groome factor is interesting. Yes he's had his off-the-field issues, and yes he's had his injuries. 4-5 walks per inning (brain fart haha) doesn't seem quite right, and his command could have been impacted by his arm health.

I don't think the Red Sox would give up Rodriguez. They might get asked for him to be thrown in, but I think it's a no from Boston.

I do agree that the Red Sox have to give up more than the others, but the others don't have as big of a need for Arenado as the Red Sox.

If you are a lifelong Giants fan, and you have listened and read countless articles on their front office, you probably know more than me, but as an outsider I just think they're so desperate for prospects they might just throw in the towel with Bumgarner. Yordan Alvarez is a top-50, add in the golden spikes winner, it's nothing to sneer at in my opinion.


9.) 09 Nov 2018
09 Nov 2018 01:36:51
BATMAN! I'm not saying that these teams can't use an upgrade at 3rd. I'm saying that they won't. Let's use Andujar for example. The Yankees aren't trading someone they have for the next 5 years who looks like he'll be an excellent offensive third baseman (even though on the defensive side work needs to be done. Stanton, Rodriguez and Jones are different. A-Rod was signed for the next 7 years even after that trade. Stanton for the next 10, Jones was always a third baseman, I don't believe he moved. Also who do the Cubs have do give up in a deal?


10.) 09 Nov 2018
09 Nov 2018 04:23:16
It doesn't matter if those players were signed for a number of years after they were dealt. And Jones played 3-4 years in the outfield, look it up. You cannot say a team won't trade someone they will have control over for the next 5-6 years, its happened numerous times when no one thought a team would trade that player. If they can sign Machado or trade for Aerando, they can trade Andujar for someone like Kluber along with other pieces.


11.) 09 Nov 2018
09 Nov 2018 04:28:54
Hitting does matter if he's hitting in Coors Field, because the adjustment would make him the same player: 97 wRC+. It's why it's park neutralized. He'd be a below average hitter even in Denver.

Groome is averaging 4-5 BB/ 9, not per inning. I mistyped that one. Good catch.

And yes, that offer is comically low from Houston. Seth Beer is a 40 FV prospect by several scouts. His speed is 20 (the lowest is 20!), his fielding is 30. He's about as one-dimensional as it gets. And Alvarez is the same thing: an immobile 1B who is shoved in the outfield for reasons no one understands.

The Giants will demand Whitley and/ or Tucker. Alvarez makes no sense in that outfield.


12.) 09 Nov 2018
09 Nov 2018 04:33:51
Arenado's wRC+ over the last 169 games (to equal Devers) is 131. He's 30% better of a hitter, and that's removing the hitting atmosphere that is Coors.

The more I look at Devers' numbers, the more I'm convinced that he's not a major trade chip. He reminds me too much of Maikel Franco.