03 Dec 2018 17:36:51
Reds trade Nick Senzel

Padres trade Manny Margot and Jacob Nix.

1.) 03 Dec 2018
03 Dec 2018 21:11:54
I don't know why Cincinnati would do this. Margot is basically a Billy Hamilton with worse defense and less speed. He's probably a 4th OF at this point.

Nix is okay, but he's not a guy teams are lining up to trade for.

Senzel is a legitimately good prospect. They'd want much better talent to give him up.

2.) 03 Dec 2018
03 Dec 2018 23:30:56
Before the arguments start setting in. consider the past two seasons:

Margot- .254 BA, .302 OBP, 28 SB, 21 HR, 103 R, 17 DRS, 7.7 UZR, 2.7 WAR
Hamilton- .243 BA, .299 OBP, 93 SB, 8 HR, 159 R, 13 DRS, 14.8 UZR, 2.5 WAR

They didn't even tender Hamilton a contract and he put up almost identical numbers.

If they wanted that kind production, they could've kept Hamilton instead of giving up a top 10 prospect for them.

3.) 04 Dec 2018
04 Dec 2018 16:44:46
Margot is also 4 years younger, paid under a quarter less than hamilton was, under team control until 2023.

Perhaps nix wouldn't be the right pitching prospect in this case but a Morejon and add another lower ranked prospect could help. Like Gabriel Arias. let's not forget that most top 30 guys in the padres farm would be top 10 in a lotttt of farm systems.

4.) 04 Dec 2018
04 Dec 2018 16:55:19
Let's turn this around:

Would you give up Fernando Tatis, Jr. for Manny Margot? Of course you wouldn't. You wouldn't even include him in a trade for Noah Syndergaard (who is objectively a more valuable commodity) .

You're essentially asking the Reds to give up a top 10 prospect for Manuel Margot, when the Padres wouldn't give up the same caliber talent for a much, much better player.

5.) 04 Dec 2018
04 Dec 2018 17:35:48
didn't realize that senzel was that highly ranked. then let's say you replace senzel with saurez? how does this match up?

6.) 04 Dec 2018
04 Dec 2018 18:14:54
Even worse for Cincinnati.

Suarez is coming off the best season of his career, and he's only 27 (doesn't turn 28 until July) .

He's under contract for the next 6 years, at least, and his contract is comically team-friendly. He's only owed 7.3M in 2019. You can't even get Mike Moustakas that cheap.

If the Reds really wanted Margot, I'm sure a package centered around someone like Shed Long would work.

Shed Long, Keury Mella, and some low-level prospect would be pretty enticing.

7.) 05 Dec 2018
04 Dec 2018 23:11:40
If the Padres wanted Eugenio Suarez, it'd likely start with young pitching. something along the lines of:

Chris Paddack
Michel Baez
Hudson Potts.

8.) 05 Dec 2018
05 Dec 2018 17:04:33
Stat is correct. Margot is still young, but he has not come close to realizing his potential given the opportunity. If the Reds were looking for that kind of player, Hamilton would still be in Cincy. Margot would fetch you more than what Hamilton would because of age and control, but not near that much from anyone, let alone the Reds.