27 Nov 2019 05:25:42
Red Sox / White Sox

White Sox Get:
LHP David Price
OF Andrew Benintendi
$21 Million

Red Sox Get:
OF Steele Walker
RHP Jonathan Stiever
RHP Tyler Johnson

If I'm Boston, there is no way I can trade Mookie Betts. None - especially if he's going to be on a 1 year or 1/2 year deal. I want to do everything I can to retain him. He's a generational talent that they should never let leave Boston.

Martinez opting-in complicates things, so they need to try and move money around. In this case, they could semi-punt on 2020, and put themselves in position to make the necessary adds to contend in 2021.

By shedding more than $30 million in committed money for 2021, they'll be at roughly $90 million pre-arb (with Devers and E-Rod as the significant arb raises). Plus, JD could opt out too if he feels he can get more than the 2/$38 Million or so he could get from Boston.

$100+ million to work & already having a core of Betts, Devers, Sale, & Bogaerts is not a bad situation. If they are truly intent on shedding payroll, I think saving $100 Million in total over 3 seasons is worth the loss of Benny, who hasn't been spectacular in 2 of his 3 ML seasons.

As I wrote this, I thought about having to pay David Price $25 million per year over the next 3 years, and it doesn't sound great the more you think about it from the White Sox standpoint. But regardless, I think Boston should look to make a deal like this.

1.) 27 Nov 2019
27 Nov 2019 13:23:06
If they have to give up Benintendi to get rid of Price the Red Sox won't get rid of David Price.

2.) 27 Nov 2019
27 Nov 2019 13:27:44
And if they are giving up Benintendi + 21M, I think Chicago would need to give up a better player.

All of those guys are pretty decent, but its not like David Price is Jacoby Ellsbury. He's still a pretty good pitcher, and the White Sox have a lot of payroll space. I'd guess the Red Sox would want someone like Madrigal or Vaughn if the White Sox are getting Benintendi.

3.) 27 Nov 2019
27 Nov 2019 13:32:19
"I think saving $100 Million in total over 3 seasons is worth the loss of Benny, who hasn't been spectacular in 2 of his 3 ML seasons. "

Of course you do. We wouldn't expect anything less from you.

Now, tell us also how you can save the Angels lots of money by acquiring Trout for a handful of 40 FV prospects. I'm guessing they'd have to attach Ohtani as well, right?

4.) 27 Nov 2019
27 Nov 2019 18:54:33
Yes, arguably the greatest player in this game's history is a great comparable to David Price's situation in Boston. Simple baseball knowledge. Stop wasting everyone's time, statbook.

@thedudeabides, that is valid. I'm sure they try and trade JD, but any scenario where they feel they have to part with Betts is a mistake, IMO. I felt like this deal essentially gives them a mulligan with a top tier FA starter, while also being able to raise their offer to Betts. At 34, I'm not sure we can expect much better from Price, so I think Vaughn or Madrigal would require more money to be eaten by Boston. I think Benny has some upside that we haven't seen yet. One way or another, Boston is going to have to make something happen financially.

5.) 28 Nov 2019
28 Nov 2019 01:21:27
Name one time where a player of Benintendi's ilk was thrown into a trade just to offset a big contract?

You could argue Edwin Diaz was added into Robinson Cano's trade, but even then, the Mariners got Kelenic and Dunn, both very, very good prospects.

Meanwhile, Price and Benintendi are overall far better than Cano/ Diaz, and you've got the White Sox giving up next to nothing for them.

It has no grounding in reality whatsoever. Talk about wasting people's time.

6.) 28 Nov 2019
28 Nov 2019 01:30:38
Chi Sox: Right, but why would the Red Sox give up Benintendi? The guy is insanely talented and is fairly cheap. If that's what it takes, I don't think the Red Sox wouldn't trade him.

Unlike thestatbook, I'm going to try and be nice, but I don't think there's a chance Boston even considers this idea without a really good prospect going back to Boston. I could see that return if it were just David Price going back. No way it happens with Benintendi.

7.) 28 Nov 2019
28 Nov 2019 14:24:58
I thought more about that Cano trade, and it really doesn't help your case here. It's the best precedent we have for a massive contract of an older player.

The Mariners attached Edwin Diaz to Cano. And everyone and their mom knew that Diaz wasn't going to replicate 2018. After all the players got moved, the Mets were on the hook for about 63.5M. That's not including the cost of Diaz going forward (est. 21M going forward) .

Taking on over 80M for a 36-year-old 2B (when you can't DH him) and a reliever cost the Mets two 50+ FV prospects.

The White Sox will be taking on around the same amount of money in your scenario, once you consider the arbitration for Benintendi will make the 21M a wash. So maybe 10-20M more in total commitments that the White Sox will be adding.

This doesn't consider the fact that the White Sox can afford this a lot easier than the Mets, who already had several commitments. I'd imagine the White Sox would have to include a similar prospect into that return. So take your pick of the following 50FV prospects: Robert, Kopech, Madrigal, Vaughn. And it very well may be two of them, especially with the factor that Benintendi is a significantly better "add in" than Edwin Diaz.

8.) 28 Nov 2019
28 Nov 2019 14:32:45
The other precedent is one that certainly doesn't help your case: Zack Greinke.

Greinke was a full year older than Price when he was traded, and after all the money worked out, it was about 53M that Houston was on the hook for.

Taking on 53M for a 35-year-old pitcher cost them Corbin Martin (50 FV at time of trade) J. B. Bukauskas (50 FV), Seth Beer (40+) and Josh Rojas.

Now, imagine what would have happened if the Diamondbacks also included Ketel Marte into the deal? The return would have been monstrous.

No matter how you spell it, there's absolutely no precedence suggesting that Price and Benintendi can go to Chicago for a bunch of inconsequential prospects. Even for JUST DAVID PRICE, I'd imagine the team getting Price will have to give up something that'd hurt. This is based solely on precedence, not personal preference or homerism.

9.) 28 Nov 2019
28 Nov 2019 15:21:28
I guess my counter-argument would be that Boston has a much greater incentive to clear Price's money than Seattle did with Cano. Also, if we (and the Mets) went by your xFIP argument, they probably thought Diaz's 2018 was more legit than not. I think they thought they were truly getting an elite closer with 4 years of control. I don't think Benny, with 3 years control, has nearly the same trade value as Diaz did alone with Benny coming off a league average season. His batted ball profile also does not inspire a lot of confidence. Price is obviously better than Cano, but is that difference worth the difference in Keleinic vs. Steele Walker? Probably, but then I circle back to my initial sentence of this paragraph.

I'm not dead-set on this proposal, but I think it's interesting to consider how far Boston would go to clear Price's $. If they can present Betts with the offer he deserves while also looking at guys like Realmuto, Springer, Brantley, Pederson, Bauer, Ray, Paxton - and a LOADED class in 2 years - Benny might be worth it. It depends too on how they view Benny internally and how much they'll be willing to pay in luxury taxes with this core in-tact.

I think the Madrigal/ Vaughn/ Kopech (Heck no on Robert) conversation can be had, but more than $21 million attached would be required.

10.) 29 Nov 2019
29 Nov 2019 03:09:28
Look, I'm not a big Andrew Benintendi fan. And for the reasons you cited, I don't get the hype. But Boston seems to be big on him, as do a lot of baseball writers. How does Bloom view him? I'm not sure, but I doubt he views him so lowly that he has to include him with Price's contract AND adding over 20M in salary.

And I don't think Boston will have that much challenge moving Price, if they move some money with his deal. And if they moved Price + 25M, I think they'd get at least one 45 FV prospect, if not more. There's a lot of teams that could use David Price, and a lot of teams that have the salary space for him. They simply wouldn't even consider such a move if it requires Benintendi. I'd bet a lot of money on that.

11.) 29 Nov 2019
29 Nov 2019 05:30:36
I didn’t suggest the Red Sox include Devers or Bogaerts did I? How does including Marte, a guy coming off a 7-win season, compare to Benintendi who averagind 3 wins a season with a career 108 wRC+?

And don’t act like Arizona got a haul for Grienke. Martin is a solid back-end pitching prospect, but Bukauskas is a reliever with control issues and Beer is a solid DH at best. That return, minus about $23 million taken on, isn’t miles away from Walker, Stiever, and Johnson - all of which coming off great seasons.

12.) 29 Nov 2019
29 Nov 2019 12:32:00
I'm comparing the return including Marte to say that teams aren't going to just hand over their really good young talent just for the sake of offsetting big contracts.

The Diamondbacks only had to throw in some cash for Greinke. You can disagree with the level of the return, but at least two of those players were 50 FV prospects according to several outlets (Fangraphs, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline) .

Even then, if the return for Greinke + some cash is the same as Walker, Stiever, and Johnson, you've pretty well shown that the Red Sox wouldn't need to add Benintendi. The Red Sox can get someone to take Price, and they'd probably get a better return without even adding a good young hitter.

This trade wasn't good. Just admit it and move on.

13.) 29 Nov 2019
29 Nov 2019 15:16:28
No one is taking on $70+ million for David Price on his own. With the amount of SPs who are better than Price on the FA market, teams can get someone better for much less than a $25-32 MM AAV.

The context of the Grienke trade was much different, and he's just a better pitcher without the recent injury history that Price has. We are talking about a 5 and a half-win pitcher vs. a 2-win pitcher. Houston is paying him for two and a half years, Price would be 3 full seasons. We've also been over the increased value that Grienke had for Houston in 2019.

I can reason that Boston wouldn't be willing to part with Benny, but I don't think Price will be as easy to move as you're suggesting. On his own, I'd bet Boston would have to eat closer to half of the $96 million he's owed.

14.) 30 Nov 2019
30 Nov 2019 00:08:35
The Red Sox might have to attach something to sweeten the deal, I'll give you that. But you're out of your mind if you think it's any player who is currently slated to start (unless we're talking about Marco Hernandez, maybe) .

I'd also imagine the Red Sox would gladly take next to nothing to let Price's contract be someone else's problem.

I don't think they'll have to take next to nothing. They'll get a decent return.