24 Nov 2020 00:06:14
White Sox/Rays

White Sox Get:
Blake Snell LHP

Rays Get:
Andrew Vaughn 1B
Michael Kopech RHP
Lenyn Sosa SS
Alec Hansen RHP

1.) 24 Nov 2020
24 Nov 2020 18:44:33
Take one of the first two guys out of the deal to make this work. Otherwise, this is a PERFECT deal from the Tampa perspective.

2.) 24 Nov 2020
24 Nov 2020 22:07:12
Either:

A. This is a significant overpay for Blake Snell OR
B. You think very poorly of Vaughn and Kopech.

3.) 24 Nov 2020
24 Nov 2020 22:53:14
Overpay.

Both Kopech and Vaughn have the pedigree and skills to become major leaguers. Kopech's path is clearly all about his health. but the early information says he's going to be just fine. Vaughn has a special bat that just does incredibly well at the ML level. Getting both. makes this an overpay.

4.) 24 Nov 2020
24 Nov 2020 23:06:10
Given that Vaughn is a 1st baseman, Kopech hasn't thrown a pitch since August 2018 and we are talking about a top-20 pitcher on a 3-year/ $39 million contract, I don't think it's *that* much of an overpay.

I don't think Vaughn/ Kopech and Dunning/ Stiever gets the job done.

5.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 02:48:02
It also gives them the flexibility to still get George Springer, something that Trevor Bauer wouldn't allow.

6.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 12:24:15
Based on back-of-the-napkin math, Snell has a "surplus value" of anywhere from 45-55M.

You yourself claim that Vaughn's value is 55M on its own.

So, how poorly do you think of Kopech? Just curious.

7.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 12:30:01
Frankly, Vaughn is very, very good, but I don't think Tampa Bay wants to give up Snell for a guy they don't need. They have a plethora of 1B options, including Nate Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Ji-Man Choi (should they tender him a contract) .

They'll likely want a position of immediate need for him.

8.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 15:37:15
At $9M/ WAR, I calculated Snell's projected surplus value in the $60-70 million range. Add in the fact that the move would allow the Sox to still get the top bat on the market, and he's worth even more.

I think 8 combined seasons of Snell + Springer would outperform 11 seasons of Vaughn + Kopech. The window was kicked open this year, and the next 3-4 years is likely the Sox's best shot to win. Getting a cheap ace only increases the likelihood of this happening. Kopech has dealt with injury and mental health issues. The sky's the limit for either guy, but Snell gives me a much better immediate chance to win in this designed window.

For the record, I really like Vaughn and Kopech. However, I don't think just because a rumor was floated out that the Rays are making Snell available means they are extremely motivated to trade him. They are going to want a haul. Maybe the second piece doesn't have to be Kopech -- maybe they like Dunning, Stiever, or even Dylan Cease enough with a higher quality 3rd piece.

I think any reasonable deal that doesn't involve *both* Vaughn and Kopech should almost be a no brainer for the White Sox.

But your note about the Rays having a plethora of 1B options kind of helps my initial point. While Vaughn would certainly be a better option than any combination of Diaz, Lowe, or Choi, we still are talking about first base.

9.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 17:01:38
If the Rays aren't "extremely motivated" to move Snell, what would entice them more: a position of need (catcher) or one in which they have a big surplus (1B/ DH)?

As you said above, they want someone who can contribute immediately. I don't think that includes a 1B (who they don't need) who hasn't played above high-A ball, and a pitcher with "injury and mental health issues" (to use your own quote) .

10.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 17:04:33
You should also work on your sales ability. You don't try to sell a product (in this case, a trade idea) and then downplay the side you're giving up.

"I think 8 combined seasons of Snell + Springer would outperform 11 seasons of Vaughn + Kopech. "

So, why wouldn't the Rays just find someone who can contribute at or above Springer's level (say Arozarena? ) and keep Snell? Why give up the better player for a package that'll get out-performed?

It's remarkable, you got me from believing this was a significant overpay to believing it's a significant underpay, all because you kept trying to sell it. You literally talked your way out of making me believe this deal.

It truly is incredible.

11.) 25 Nov 2020
25 Nov 2020 19:39:28
My goal here isn't to sell you on a trade, believe it or not Nate. As much as you pretend to be, you are not this site's arbiter.

This idea was spawned from the rumors of Snell's availability. I'm allowed to speculate as to how much merit I would like to give it. My guess is that they are flaring his name out there in case an team wants to "blow them away", and that's what my proposed trade would likely do.

"So, why wouldn't the Rays just find someone who can contribute at or above Springer's level (say Arozarena? ) and keep Snell? Why give up the better player for a package that'll get out-performed? "

No kidding! Why are the Rays looking to trade Snell?

It's obviously puzzling why the current AL champion would be looking to trade their ace, but this is how the Rays operate. The run their team like a company on Wall St. (there's a whole book on this btw), so they are alway looking to sell high on ANY of their assets. Given the money lost in 2020, the $39 million owed to Snell by the Rays probably means a lot more to the Rays than it would literally any other team. For the Rays however, even with prospect uncertainty, I'm pretty confident that 11 seasons of Vaughn and Kopech will outperform 3 years of Snell.

They very well may be "extremely motivated", but they won't show their hand. They know that Snell, given his skill and contract status, could fit on virtually any team. My point in pointing out the "flaws" of Vaughn and Kopech were to provide context as to how they're no sure thing for the White Sox here in their contention window. This trade is an overpay, but if I had to guess, that's what it will require to get a bonafide ace on a crazy cheap deal.

If the Giants' offer for Snell is one top-20 prospect that struggled mightily (albeit in a small sample) that probably needs to start the season in AAA, they will definitely be outbid, and it will be rather quickly.

12.) 26 Nov 2020
26 Nov 2020 14:03:00
0 believable, 10 unbelievable (and growing) . You didn't sell ANYONE on this trade.

And I'm giving you a hard time. It's not a bad trade. Vaughn and Kopech are good players. They have tons of trade value. But neither serves a need for the Rays.

At the very least, Joey Bart fills an immediate need for the Rays, who currently have one catcher on their 40-man roster, and even that guy hasn't had a single at-bat above High-A ball. It's no doubt they need catchers. Taking on a cheap, top 15 prospect, who also plays catcher and has some major league experience would be pretty attractive to a budget-conscious team like Tampa Bay.

If they are worried about him being able to immediately fill in, they could sign a guy like Jason Castro for a couple million and then let Castro (or literally anyone) be a backup after Bart gets a handful of games at AAA.

Could a bunch of teams outbid the Giants? Of course. But it seems like Tampa Bay wants the RIGHT deal, not just the deal with the best players.

13.) 26 Nov 2020
26 Nov 2020 14:11:44
You missed the point of my "sales pitch" criticism (surprise, surprise) .

For starters, you are, in fact, trying to "sell" me (and everyone on this site) on your ideas. If you weren't, you wouldn't pay my criticisms any attention or get worked up over them. Yet, here you are.

You can use the word "defend" if you'd prefer. It all adds up the same. Your defense of your trade didn't make sense to me.

On one hand, the Rays are going to demand the world for Blake Snell (it's my opinion that Snell isn't going to net as much as you think, but that's just my opinion), but on the other hand, the Rays will accept a deal for guys that are "no sure thing for the White Sox here in their contention window"?

But they make sense for the Rays, who are an objectively better baseball team in every possible way?

Remove the team names and ask yourself which package would convince the Rays to accept:

Package A: A first baseman (who they don't need) who hasn't had a single PA above High-A ball and a pitcher with "injury and mental health issues. " (Mind you, the Rays have a bad history of players in their organization with major mental health issues) .

OR

Package B: A catcher (of which their team has a significant and glaring need for) that ranks in the top 15 prospects, has 6 years of team control, and has MLB experience.

The player in package B isn't a perfect baseball player. Neither are any in package A. But if the Rays are going to demand to be motivated to move Snell, I'd imagine acquiring players they NEED will probably be more likely to motivate them.

For what it's worth, I don't think Zaidi offers Bart for Snell, not even straight up. So it wouldn't be much to top an offer that Zaidi wouldn't offer. I suggested mine because it was something that works in theory.

14.) 26 Nov 2020
26 Nov 2020 17:15:12
" but on the other hand, the Rays will accept a deal for guys that are "no sure thing for the White Sox here in their contention window"?

But they make sense for the Rays, who are an objectively better baseball team in every possible way? "

Yes. This is where understanding team context really matters. The only reason why Snell is even being discussed is Tampa Bay's budget constraints that are accentuated due to the C.V.. That's why they typically look to sell high, etc. -- if you read my last reply.

And Vaughn and Kopech are no more of a "no sure thing" than any other prospects. I made that point only because prospects are never a sure thing. Teams like Tampa have to be confident they can develop "no sure things" into playoff-contributing players all the time.

Vaughn is, as I already said, a better option than any of their in-house candidates at first base and the Rays could likely do wonders for Michael Kopech. Kopech is the typical high-velo, high induced vertical break pitcher that they thrive with. ie. Tyler Glasnow, Fairbanks, Snell, McClanahan, etc. Neander and Co. would drool over this package if it was on the table, despite the flaws that make these 2 not "perfect prospects".

They Rays would take Vaughn and Kopech in a heart beat over Bart. Like it's not even close. Don't tell me you are going to make that argument. Yes, they want "the right players" given that they still want to contend in 2021, but they would get 10x more value from Vaughn and Kopech this year (and likely through the next 6 years for that matter) rather than Bart. 99 times/ 100 the "right players" are also the better players. Bart wouldn't solve their immediate catching needs because he belongs in AAA for at least a couple months. His pitch selection issues were terrible in his 1st 100 or so PA sample. He has the potential to be a really good MLB catcher, he just isn't what the Rays would be seeking right now.

As as I also said, the trade doesn't make sense anyway for the Giants given where they are in their rebuild.

15.) 27 Nov 2020
27 Nov 2020 08:53:39
There is a bunch of rumblings that Zaidi prefers the catcher he drafted (Bailey) over Bart as it were. He's also stated, repeatedly, in every possible way, that the Giants plan on trying to compete in 2021 and that they will seek top level pitchers.

So unless it's just lip service, a trade for Snell would fall in line with what Zaidi plans to do. And it's been something that many people I've ran it by: baseball nerds, beat writers, TB fans, and others have all pretty much agreed that it's fair and makes a lot of sense for both teams.

You don't have to like the trade, because guess what: YOU'RE NOT THIS SITE'S ARBITER, EITHER. The irony of your own comment got totally lost on you.

But to pretend like it's a terrible trade that doesn't make any sense? I'd say at this point, you disagree with the trade simply because it made by Natedog (me) . Just admit it and let's move on, shall we?

16.) 27 Nov 2020
27 Nov 2020 19:04:46
We can move on, it's fine. I think Zaidi stating the have wants to compete in 21 is what's lip service to the fan base. There's really no scenario where they're better than LA or San Diego, and if you want to argue for a second wild card spot, I'd argue for 5 or so NL teams better set up for short term success.

I'm not going to criticize Zaidi for saying that (it's just GM talk), but we both know that's awfully ambitious.

I don't think it's a terrible trade (especially on your scale), but I simply don't think it makes sense for either side - and that's obviously just my opinion. If the Rays are in fact EXTREMELY motivated to move Snell for financial reasons and a trade for Joey Bart straight up is the best offer TB gets, then fine -- but I think the chances of both of those facts being true is slim to none. If we look at Vaughn, Kopech, and Bart -- Bart is the 3rd best in that group. Add in the fact that Bart almost surely needs to start 2021 in AAA (Kopech probably does too FWIW), and all I'm saying is that Hahn picks the phone up and gives TB a better deal very quickly. All that would take is Vaughn + 2 or 3 40 FV prospects.

The last thing I'll say about Zaidi and Bart is that even if he likes Bailey more as his long-term backstop, he should probably at least give Bart a shot to improve his value in 2021 if he plays half a season in San Fran.

17.) 28 Nov 2020
28 Nov 2020 10:34:46
Of course it's ambitious. But the Giants were in a tie-breaker for a playoff spot in 2020. Yes, those were expanded playoffs, but nonetheless, they had a much better year than predicted.

I don't *think* Zaidi makes the Bart-for-Snell trade. I think Tampa Bay would accept it in nothing flat. Bart was the #2 pick for a reason, and Tampa can certainly do wonders if they can help work on his swing, which is something they are very good at.

The Rays catching situation has went from comical to disastrous. And I'd imagine Neander and Silverman would jump at the ability to get a legit catcher in there for the next 5-6 years.

"All that would take is Vaughn + 2 or 3 40 FV prospects. "

Okay, so this changes the conversation really quick, since you removed Kopech and all. If you're Erik Neander, and you get the following offers, which do you take?

Vaughn (#13 MLB prospect, still in High-A to AA) + 2-3 40 FV prospects

OR

Bart (#11 MLB prospect, MLB ready) + 2-3 40 FV prospects?

Not knowing how the Rays view each prospect exactly, Bart is higher ranked, closer to the majors, and fills a position of need.

If you think the Rays would take the first package, then I just don't think you're being objective about this.

Whether it makes sense for SF is a moot point. The Rays have ZERO catchers on their 40-man roster with an AB in the majors. They'll take the package with a catcher first. In fact, I'd wager if that catcher were only ranked #65, and the rest were 40 FV prospects, the Rays would take it before taking Vaughn.

Trade packages with guys like Jeffers (MIN), Kirk or Jansen (TOR), Smith or Ruiz (LAD), Alvarez (NYM), Campusano (SD) would be preferable over a position like 1B/ DH, where they can find production for pennies on the dollar.

18.) 01 Dec 2020
01 Dec 2020 21:25:20
Well, now, see you didn't have 2-3 40 FV prospects in your Bart for Snell deal, so that's not what I was comparing. You had Bart for Snell straight up, which would never happen. You changed the conversation.

Again, Blake Snell is at worst a top-20 pitcher in baseball on a 3-year, $39 million contract. A catcher that just stuck out almost 40% of the time alone is not enough.

As the Rays are serious contenders, they likely wouldn't want to put Bart, who is clearly still learning the ropes of hitting in MLB but also all the things that have to do with catching, behind the dish on opening day. World Series contenders usually don't prefer rookies behind the plate -- especially to execute the pitching system that the Rays deploy.

Zaidi, Kapler, and the Giants org did Joey Bart a huge disservice by bringing him up too early, and they'll have to hope that doesn't' screw with his development process. The guy had less than 100 PAs above high-A. Not good.

Bart is not any more MLB ready than Vaughn is - but I can confidently say that Vaughn would have easily bested Bart's whopping 70 wRC+ in 2020. He hit like you'd expect a catcher belonging in A-ball would hit in MLB. Do they Rays want a guy who's swing has to be "worked on", or a guy whose swing is fine for their cheap ace? Makes you think.

"Silverman would jump at the ability to get a legit catcher in there for the next 5-6 years. "

Sure, but I'm sure they'd like a legit potential .300/ .400/ .500 hitter too. Packages headlined by Bart and Vaughn wouldn't be that far off, but Vaughn would be able to help TB a lot more in 2021 than Bart would. With the money saved from Snell, they could easily go get Jason Castro and Tyler Flowers with that $10 million -- veteran catcher that contending teams usually prefer. Could TB prefer Bart to Vaughn for the reasons you outlined? Yeah they could, but Zaidi better be ready to cough up some other good prospects while he's still in the thick of a rebuild, which let's be honest, he shouldn't and won't do.

"Trade packages with guys like Jeffers (MIN), Kirk or Jansen (TOR), Smith or Ruiz (LAD), Alvarez (NYM), Campusano (SD) would be preferable over a position like 1B/ DH, where they can find production for pennies on the dollar. "

Another patented Statbook comment that is just beyond wild. I live for these because I can see you typing this so confidently, but I guess you forget to think about it? A The Rays take a package headlined by Alejandro Kirk over Andrew Vaughn? LOL! I have to remember that, by you're own admissions, you're merely a troll.

They Rays also have Ronaldo Hernandez on their 40-man, one of the best catch and throw catchers in the minors, so you're wrong there as well. The Rays will want to add 2 MLB-ready catchers to their tight 40-man, not Bart who likely is sent to Durham, or maybe even Montgomery.

But your comment about 1B/ DH not being a prime position is exactly why I included Kopech here, and again, if I'm Hahn, I still do this because it allows me to still sign Springer and win the offseason. The Sox's biggest window is the next 3-5 years - Snell fits it almost perfectly.

IMO you're underrating Blake Snell here, especially with the leverage the Rays would have in these discussions. Any team that gets him would only have to pay him $10.5 million in 2021. The Braves just gave Drew Smyly (who I like) $11 million! In this market, he's extremely valuable.

19.) 02 Dec 2020
02 Dec 2020 08:37:49
Honest question, Chi Sox, why does all of this bother you so much?

I'm just curious as to why you display such a level of vitriol for anyone who deviates from your opinion of them. Is there some sort of deep, personal connection to them that you get EXTREMELY OFFENDED when someone suggests that maybe they aren't as great as you think they are?

We've had lengthy conversations about silly topics, mostly involving the White Sox, and for the most part, I enjoy them. I really do. For as much as I enjoy getting you riled up, I also enjoy hearing your perspectives and learning a thing or two. If I didn't enjoy this, I wouldn't partake in it.

But there seems to be some elements here that show you're not able to be an adult about this. Again, it's not a character flaw if someone doesn't share the same 99th Percentile scouting report on Andrew Vaughn as you do.

You take it deeply personal. To the extent that you've made MULTIPLE posts calling me out, personally, because I dared disagree with you. They weren't even posts where you gloated, but instead, they were simply over differences of opinion.

If you find that one's character is in question because they disagree with your opinion, it may be time to re-evaluate your priorities and take some time off.