13 Dec 2020 01:28:15
M's made strides in 2020 and have their sights set on making a move for the AL West crown in 2021. The core of young players have promise, but need more veteran leadership. Trader Jerry has said they'll run with primarily the same rotation again this season (maybe add a low cost veteran and continue the six man approach) and will likely just look to improve the bullpen, with their worst in the AL ERA. But the payroll obligations are fantastically low for 2021 and beyond and this presents an opportunity that the M's ownership and management shouldn't pass up.

FA signings
DJ LeMahieu 6/$120M
Frontloaded, paid out $25-24-23-19-16-13

Trevor Bauer 6/$168
Frontloaded, paid out $40-36-30-26-20-16

Kirby Yates 2/$18M
Paid out $9-9

Ryan Tempera 2/$15M
Paid out $8-7

1.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 03:02:58
DJ LaMahieu's length of contract could be four plus a vesting option over five years. He's already 32. but, the DJL Derby winner may pay him as you've stated, an AAV of $ 20 MM

Bauer would be a huge investment. but what if it's only for a single year? . and what if it's for 20 or 30 % higher than what you've written? .

Does that open the door for what Jerry Di. does best. Let's make a deal?!

2.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 09:41:08
Are you these players' agent? What drastic overpays for all of them.

If no one is going to claim Brad Hand at 10M a year, they aren't going to pay Kirby Yates —who is objectively worse— 9M.

And the Cubs non-tendered Tepera at his projected 1.5M salary. He's not going to get FIVE TIMES more than that.

And LeMahieu is absolutely not getting 6 years.

3.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 14:07:02
@Nate, respectfully, disagree.

-Four plus a vesting option is not six years.

-Bauer was at $ 20+ MM for the 2020 season and is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has a history of health, and wants a single year deal that would maximize his AAV. The stated AAV ( $ 168/ 6 = $28 MM AAV) at 20 to 30 % higher for a one year deal could be (and probably will be) $ 33.5 MM - $ 36.4 MM. Considering Gerritt Cole has a 9 year deal at $ 36 MM AAV, this is not an overpay.

-I'm not sure what Tepera or Hand has to do with these numbers. Perhaps to show the minimal number of dollars being spent on RP's?

-A 33 year old right handed middle reliever with minimal closing experience

-A 30 year old closer who's lost about four ticks on his FB.

but if it helps the narrative. by all means.

Thoughts? .

4.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 15:24:26
What do Brad Hand and Tepera have to do?

For starters, he suggested Ryan Tepera (I'm assuming he misspelled the name) would get 7.5M a year. The Cubs weren't going to tender him a contract at less than 2M a year, so why on earth would ANYONE give him almost 4 times as much?

The Brad Hand argument is simple: Brad Hand is a better reliever, by literally every metric you can use. No one claimed him on waivers at 10M a year. No one.

So, if they aren't claiming Brad Hand at 10M, why would they then take the worse reliever and pay him almost as much?

The elbow issues Yates is dealing with is going to be a legit concern for any team signing him. He's not going to get anywhere close to 9M a year, like at all.

5.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 15:33:09
As far as Bauer is concerned, if we're considering him in the same conversation as Gerrit Cole, then I'm not sure we can have a real discussion about him. Cole had two consecutive seasons with a WAR of 6 or higher going into free agency.

Bauer has had one such season, and it requires us to adjust his WAR for a 162 game season. Bauer has a lifetime 3.90 ERA and has thrown south of 4.00 just twice in his career, and again, one of those was in a short season.

Want to guess how things would have gone in a full season? Check out this career split:

1st Half Trevor Bauer: 3.53 ERA, .227 BAA, .295 wOBA
2nd Half Trevor Bauer: 4.43 ERA, .247 BAA, .324 wOBA

His LAST full season was much, much worse:
2019 1st Half: 3.61, .214, .299
2019 2nd Half: 5.89, .256, .343

I have every indication to believe that Trevor Bauer may have benefitted more than almost anyone from having a 60-game season.

But GMs will see this and pay him accordingly.

6.) 14 Dec 2020
14 Dec 2020 21:29:08
One year committment versus NINE year committment.

Glossed over.

Un-commented on.

The Bauer single year AAV at $ 36. isn't an overpay. look at historical values of salaries.

7.) 15 Dec 2020
15 Dec 2020 13:11:36
Gerrit Cole through age 30: 32.7 WAR, 4 wins per season. That's worth 32M a year.

Trevor Bauer through age 30: 24.2 WAR, 3.4 wins per season. That's worth 27M a year.

In other words, you're overpaying Cole by 4M a year, and Bauer by 9M.

36M is a STEEP overpay for Bauer. And when you consider that Bauer, not once, has sustained his success from one season to the next, it's a really good chance that you'll get bad 4.50 ERA Trevor Bauer next year.

8.) 15 Dec 2020
15 Dec 2020 13:12:08
The best projections on Bauer runs him anywhere 3.5-4 wins next year (I feel that's generous, FWIW) .

With the financial uncertainty, we have to lower $/ WAR, probably around 6-6.5M. Let's just take the higher number, for Bauer's sake.

At 4 wins, Bauer would to be worth 26M next year. In order to justify a 36M contract, Bauer needs to be worth 5.5 wins. If the circumstances are worse and it sits at 6M, or lower, he needs to be worth SIX wins in 2021.

Will Bauer get 36M next year? Possibly. There are still owners like Reinsdorf and Moreno in the game. But if you think 36M isn't an overpay, then you're not being reasonable about this.

In no planet is Trevor Bauer worth 36M, even for just one season.