19 Jul 2021 04:09:36
Cubs/ Red Sox

Red Sox receive: Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel

Cubs receive: Bryan Mata SP, Gilberto Jimenez OF, Nick Yorke 2B, Brian Bello SP

Red Sox need to strengthen their bullpen and 1B has been arguably their worst producing position on their team. You aren’t going to win with a platoon of Danny Santana and Bobby Dalbec. Red Sox give up a number of quality prospects here but they have a crowded OF, and none of these guys will be reaching the majors to help them compete in the near future.

Cubs get a solid haul here with a lot of upside. Kimbrel’s value is at an all time high so they need to receive a legitimate package to move him. Tagging on Rizzo makes too much sense here and gets them an extra prospect and some more quantity.

1.) 19 Jul 2021
19 Jul 2021 21:24:21
Kimbrel's "value" isn't at an all-time high. You have two scenarios with his contract:

A) His option fails to vest and he's a free agent this winter, thus a rental
B) His option vests and his acquiring team is on the hook for a $16M reliever.

In situation A, I don't see a single team shelling out a Top 100 prospect (like the Blue Jays do above) for a rental. And I see it even less if teams have to pay him $16M next year.

Kimbrel's value is puffed up by the media, and while I suspect the Cubs will get something interesting for him, I think Cubs fans will be underwhelmed.

2.) 21 Jul 2021
21 Jul 2021 12:47:41
Kimbrel’s value is most definitely the highest it will ever be going forward. He will land a respectable package of prospects. We will see when teams get desperate towards the deadline and the type of prospect haul he pulls.

3.) 21 Jul 2021
21 Jul 2021 14:26:50
That's fair, but it still doesn't help your trade. In fact, it hurts it.

If Kimbrel will never be this valuable again, then why would teams give up a 50 FV prospect for him? I don't see the elite clubs making a desperate move for him.

I could see Kimbrel drawing in a 45 FV guy, but it'd likely be a fringier player, someone with 45 FV upside, but also could be a massive bust. Think someone like Jairo Solis from Houston or Rafael Marchan out of Philadelphia.

I'm willing to be wrong, because teams do crazy things at the trade deadline, but I don't see anyone desperate enough to blow it open for Craig Kimbrel. I just don't.

4.) 27 Jul 2021
27 Jul 2021 03:34:39
Chafin gets a 40+ and another prospect but Kimbrel will only land a fringe 45? Loooool.

5.) 27 Jul 2021
27 Jul 2021 04:23:05
Make that two 40+ prospects according to Fangraphs. Again, you may want to reevaluate the way you value players.

6.) 27 Jul 2021
27 Jul 2021 17:49:43
But Adam Frazier, who is not a rental, got a 40 FV and 2 35+ FVs.

It's almost as if:

A. You can't compare trades and
B. Pitchers have ALWAYS gotten more at the trade deadline than position players.

7.) 27 Jul 2021
27 Jul 2021 18:05:19
More context: Andrew Chafin is making south of 3M this year. The Cubs are likely taking on most of the remainder of that deal.

Craig Kimbrel will make almost DOUBLE that amount, just for the next 60 games of the regular season.

Kimbrel also has the potential of his option vesting. He only needs about 75 games finished (thanks to the pro-rated amount from the shortened season), and is currently at 46. In other words, a team that desperately needs him (enough to pony up a 50-FV prospect) could be on the hook for a 16M reliever in 2022.

A team that may not need him 29 of their next 60 games, thus his option not vesting ABSOLUTELY isn't going to give up a 50-FV prospect for him.

That contract, and the potential for Kimbrel's option to vest, is enough for teams to balk at the asking price.

Now, if the Cubs were to guarantee some serious money should his option vest (8-10M), then I could maybe see it.