11 Nov 2021 21:06:37
White Sox Offseason 2021-2022

1.Sign Kevin Gausman (5 years, $120 million)

2. Sign Stephen Vogt (1 years, $1.5 million)

3. Sign Blake Parker (1 year, $1.5 million)

4. Trade #1:

White Sox Get:
OF Kevin Kiermaier
INF Joey Wendle
RHP Phoenix Sanders

Rays Get:
RHP Craig Kimbrel
2B/3B Bryan Ramos
OF Misael Gonzalez

5. Trade #2:

White Sox Get:
2B/OF Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Get:
1B/OF Andrew Vaughn
RHP Jared Kelley
OF Micker Adolfo
RHP Theo Denlinger

6. Trade #3:

White Sox Get:
OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
$4 million cash

Brewers Get:
LHP Dallas Keuchel

7. Trade #4

White Sox Get:
RHP Tyler Kinley

Rockies Get:
DH Yermin Mercedes
LHP Gil Luna

Lineup:
Tim Anderson SS
Yoan Moncada 3B
Luis Robert RF
Ketel Marte 2B
Jose Abreu 1B
Yasmani Grandal C
Eloy Jimenez DH
Kevin Kiermaier CF
Jackie Bradley Jr. / Adam Engel (platoon) LF

Bench:
Joey Wendle INF
Adam Engel / Jackie Bradley OF
Stephen Vogt C
Romy Gonzalez UTL

Rotation:
Lucas Giolito
Lance Lynn
Kevin Gausman
Dylan Cease
Michael Kopech

Bullpen:
Liam Hendriks
Aaron Bummer
Garrett Crochet
Blake Parker
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose Ruiz
Tyler Kinley
Phoenix Sanders / Ryan Burr

Payroll = ~$179 million

Thoughts?

1.) 14 Nov 2021
14 Nov 2021 19:21:55
Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on.

But also, 5/ 120 seems like an overpay for him.

2.) 14 Nov 2021
14 Nov 2021 19:24:42
Also, that's Milwaukee paying $6.5M for Kimbrel, after the salaries clear. If the Brewers are honestly considering if they are willing to pay Josh Hader $10M, then there's very little chance they'll take on $6.5M for Kimbrel.

3.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 13:01:17
Kimbrel goes to Tampa, not Milwaukee. Milwaukee makes Hader available every off season just in case someone wants to offer a massive overpay.

Also I really don't think $24 million over 5 years will end up being an overpay for Gausman. He should get the biggest deal for any FA SP on a 5 or 6 year deal.

4.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 13:13:20
You're right, I misread the trade. I think it's even less likely the Brewers would want Keuchel. Bradley was a bad signing, but there's a better chance he'll be worth his salary than Keuchel would.

And I watched enough of Gausman to say that if the guy is going to get $20-25M, I want it on a 4-year deal. He has a higher chance of being a bust than most of the top-flight SP options on the market, in my opinion.

This isn't to say he's not good, just that I would proceed with caution. His 2nd Half was pretty rough, once teams figured out that splitter.

5.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 13:47:12
You really think it's more likely that Bradley is worth $17.5 million than Keuchel is worth $18 million (or even $22 million with the added cash)? . I don't. I think there are more signs pointing to a Kuechel bounce back than Bradley, even if I'm not too confident in ether.

Milwaukee could use some SP depth too, more than they need to see if Bradley can bounce back.

6.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 16:28:43
Milwaukee has a really solid rotation as it stands. They could use depth, but I'm not sure dropping 18M on pitching depth is ideal for them.

7.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 17:40:15
Logic here is that Milwaukee would essentially pay Keuchel $22 million for 2022 who's projected 1.2 WAR by Steamer ($18.3 million per win)

They get rid of paying JBJ $17.5 million for 2022 who's projected 0.1 WAR by Steamer. ($175 million per win) .

They're buying a win above replacement for roughly $4.5 million, which is a little less than market value.

8.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 21:19:07
I guess my point is: who is more likely to overcome a really bad season: JBJ or Keuchel? JBJ has elements to his game that are more likely, in my opinion, to overcome his projection. I don't think Keuchel reaches 1 WAR next season.

If the Brewers are that hamstrung by JBJ's salary, they could find more creative ways of clearing that salary. But they could find significantly better value for equal production than Keuchel.

9.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 22:46:22
IDK where you're getting that JBJ is making 17.5M in 2022. Spotrac, B-R, Cots all have him at around 9.5-11M (B-R and Cots are 11M) . That's a sizable difference.

10.) 16 Nov 2021
16 Nov 2021 04:31:55
I'd say the $8 million buyout for 2023 is fairly inevitable, no? It becomes a $4 million decision as otherwise he'd make $12 million, so I guess if he gets back to 2020 JBJ it's a possibility, but nothing in his profile suggests that.

So "paying him $17.5 million for 2022" isn't technically true, but that will probably be what he makes for just playing the 2022 season.

11.) 16 Nov 2021
16 Nov 2021 13:42:59
You were including the buyout into that number. That's where the gap was. Thanks for clarifying that.

I have no reason to believe that JBJ will be better than his projection other than pure prediction on my behalf.

But I think if I'm given the choice between paying Jackie Bradley, Jr. $17.5M to play centerfield or Dallas Keuchel to be a #5 starter for me, I'd rather stick with JBJ. You can find a #5 starter for very cheap.

Not to mention, the Brewers already have a full rotation and could easily turn to Aaron Ashby, or even Brent Suter if they found themselves in a bind. No need to give Dallas Keuchel a boatload of money for a position of strength.

12.) 17 Nov 2021
17 Nov 2021 16:59:43
Chi Sox,

Bradley's 8M buyout would go toward the 2023 payroll, not 2022. And the Brewers are unlikely to add a lot of payroll next year (their projection is already $140M) . Adding Keuchel makes the Crew add 18M for 2022, instead of being able to spread that total out over two seasons. They can address the 8M buyout and how to afford that in 2023.

13.) 17 Nov 2021
17 Nov 2021 17:10:20
One last thing, you say that the White Sox are projected to pay Keuchel 18.3M per win, while the Brewers are paying JBJ $175M per win.

So why, exactly, are you suggesting the White Sox make this trade? I'm guessing, based on your history, that it's not because you think the White Sox just want to extend a hand of benevolence to the Brewers.

You're literally suggesting that the White Sox platoon a "$17.5M player" with a projected 0.1 WAR. Somehow, I'm not believing that you buy the projection on JBJ.

14.) 17 Nov 2021
17 Nov 2021 17:12:00
Then again, the White Sox gave Adam Eaton $8M last season. So I'm not exactly accusing them of being able to make good decisions.

15.) 18 Nov 2021
18 Nov 2021 14:41:42
Yes. The whole "my guy is clearly more valuable, but give me your guy instead" argument lacks conviction.

The question at hand is which would the Brewers rather have:

A replacement-level player on a 2-year, 17.5M deal (which is essentially what JBJ is) or the same on a 1-year, 18M deal?

A team with unlimited budget would take Keuchel. A small-market team would take JBJ.

16.) 18 Nov 2021
18 Nov 2021 17:11:41
I think it would be better for both parties if Keuchel is with a different club in 2022. He's was not happy about not making the PS roster and his comments in 2020 about having to "teach the rest of the team how to win", given the circumstances surrounding when he got his ring, came off poorly to most of his teammates. Therefore I think from the Sox's standpoint it's worth it to take on a worse player and save only $4.5 million in the process to offload Keuchel.

Keuchel was also awful in 2021 and still was worth half a win. I think he'll be worth at least a win in 2022. The Sox have better replacement options for Keuchel and the Brewers have better replacement options for Bradley.

The logic that Bradley is on a 2-year, $17.5 million deal is incorrect. If Bradley plays 2022 and 2023 with the Brewers, he'll make $21.5 million, not $17.5 million. Bradley makes $17.5 million ONLY if he ONLY plays 2022 with the Brewers.

The Brewers would be paying $4.5 million for Keuchel, not $18 million, below market value. We have to be able to understand that Bradley is likely a replacement level player at best and the idea of a sunk cost. Whether you factor in Bradley's buyout to this year's books or next year's isn't that big of deal in my opinion. The money owed is the money owed. While they get Cain off the books in '23, they will also have more significant arb raises due to their best players (Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. )

17.) 18 Nov 2021
18 Nov 2021 18:59:05
I said "essentially". Jackie Bradley, Jr. will make 9.5M in 2022, and his 8M buyout (which is a 99% sure thing at this rate) would factor into the 2023 payroll. That's 17.5M paid out over two years. Or one year of playing, and one year of dead money. However you prefer to look at it, the Brewers aren't paying out 17.5M in one season. They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal.

Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ.

So your justification makes sense for the White Sox, but not for Milwaukee, as they obviously don't like paying Bradley the money he's getting, why would they pay Keuchel his? At the very least, they can play Bradley at a position where depth is needed. The Brewers don't need a starting pitcher, especially not one as bad as Dallas Keuchel.

I think it's better that the Brewers try to see if there's any juice left in the Jackie Bradley Jr. lemon before they move on to another expensive, aging player.

David Stearns passes. Trust me, I'm David Stearns.

18.) 19 Nov 2021
19 Nov 2021 14:49:09
"They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal. "

For a team not battling the luxury tax threshold, does his really matter? I would guess not. Getting out of that money sooner may be preferable given the heftier arb raises due in 2023.

"Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ. "

I outlined why I feel that while Keuchel is most likely at least 1 WAR better than JBJ in 2021, the trade still makes sense from the White Sox's standpoint. They could better use the LH premium OF defender anyway. Just read above. Keuchel is the better player - saying he's as much of a sunk cost as Bradley just really isn't true.

Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this. Keuchel's upside as a 5th starter is much greater than JBJ's, and it only costs $4.5 million. They have Tyrone Taylor who's a much better player at this point and needs PAs.

19.) 21 Nov 2021
21 Nov 2021 12:30:41
"Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this"

Man, you really say something and then think it's uber intelligent, don't you? I say that because reading through these comments, it's common for both you and Natedog.

Look, would the Brewers love to get rid of the money they owe Jackie Bradley Jr.? Of course they would. But you're suggesting that Keuchel is going to be this guy that's totally worth taking on an extra 4.5M. I don't agree.

The best rate I've seen projected is that teams are spending around 6.5M per WAR in baseball right now. Keuchel needs to have a 2.8 win season to get net-zero. Per you, he's projected at 1.1 WAR in 2022. He's overpaid by 250%.

So while he may have a better outlook for 2022, according to you, he's not a guy the Brewers need. Just going by Steamer, Keuchel isn't even projected to be a top 7 starting pitcher for the Brewers in 2022.

I'd rather see if JBJ can do something. Keuchel has no spot on the Brewers.

Sorry that I refuse to praise your excellent baseball knowledge. I await your further hostile and condescending responses.

20.) 22 Nov 2021
22 Nov 2021 02:13:33
Keuchel getting to 2.8 WAR in 2022 is much more likely than JBJ getting to 2.8 WAR. I don't think this is even a hot take. Keuchel's floor is probably 1 WAR, barring injury. JBJ could have to seriously fight to be replacement level.

Keuchel can easily slide into Brett Anderson's role/ innings. There's a spot there. Yet you have JBJ as Milwaukee's 5th outfielder and are telling me that Keuchel has no spot.