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09 Dec 2018 03:12:32
Rays are showing a willingness to spend so,
Cle trades: Kluber
TB trades: Honeywell, Jesus Sanchez, ptbnl
Cleveland gets 2 top 35 prospects
High risk high reward move for Tampa, but Snell and Kluber would arguably make the best 1-2. If they don't contend they can flip Kluber.
1.) 09 Dec 2018 14:28:06
As a Rays fan, I think I would much rather switch out Honeywell for McKay. I think I would also rather turn Honeywell/ McKay into two lesser pieces. The Rays have a huge logjam on their 40 man roster and it's going to get just worse next offseason. They need to put together big packages. So maybe instead Sanchez, Baz and Fox, +?
2.) 09 Dec 2018 18:05:25
I see where you’re coming from, I was debating McKay or Honeywell, as well as Baz and Fox but it’s going to take 2 top 100 prospects plus another piece. Definitely wouldn’t be as much if they took on Kipnis as well but I don’t see them adding that much money.
3.) 09 Dec 2018 18:30:41
Cleveland is known to want an MLB-ready OF for their pitchers. Would Tampa Bay be willing to include Meadows?
4.) 10 Dec 2018 07:10:08
Someone had mentioned the idea of a 3 way trade with Haniger going to CLE, Bauer to TB, and prospects to SEA. 3 way trades never happen but it sounds plausible.
I really don't think TB would trade Meadows unless they were getting another outfielder in return, like Haniger for example. Who knows, they might trade him if the Mets demanded him in a trade for Syndergaard.
5.) 10 Dec 2018 13:25:21
The OF to Cleveland thing could just be journalists blowing smoke, who knows? But there's a very apparent need there and I think other teams who have the pieces to acquire Bauer also have young OF they can include (Dodgers w/ Pederson; NYY w/ Frazier; etc. )
I'm not sure what the interest would be in Kiermaier, for either side. But I just see the need for an MLB-ready OF to go back to Cleveland.
6.) 10 Dec 2018 15:48:04
Yeah makes sense. Also need to note that a Kiermaier/ Thor trade seems close in value. Maybe something there?
7.) 10 Dec 2018 17:37:09
Kiermaier plus several other pieces (notably those above)? Absolutely.
Kiermaier for Syndergaard straight up? Not a chance. The Mets have zero incentive to do that.
8.) 11 Dec 2018 01:15:46
While I do think the Rays would need to add more (due to durability concerns), don't forget that Kiermaier is signed to a very team friendly longterm deal. He still has 4YR/ 41M guaranteed and a 13M option in 2023. Last year was the first year he didn't play at a 4-5 win pace.
9.) 11 Dec 2018 04:08:20
Kiermaier is also almost 29 and has eclipsed 500 PAs in a season only once, and that was 3 seasons ago.
It obviously makes sense for Tampa Bay. It makes zero sense for the Mets.
The cost of controlled pitching is significantly higher than the cost of cheap OF, especially for guys getting beyond their prime who haven't been healthy.
10.) 11 Dec 2018 05:45:17
With the Mets and Marlins trying to work out a 3 way trade with the Yankees among other teams, saw someone float this idea for the Rays:
NYM: Realmuto, Duffy
TB: Syndergaard
MIA: Sanchez (#4), Baz (#8), Fox (#16), Linares (#17)
Rankings according to THE BOARD. That's a lot to give up from the Rays, but at the same time, it's at the expense of not having to add a second top-50 type piece in addition to Sanchez.
11.) 11 Dec 2018 05:52:05
I think this is fair for all parties.
The Mets still likely pass, as BVW has been very outspoken about wanting more than Realmuto for Syndergaard. I'm not sure Matt Duffy (despite how good he is) is going to be the missing link for him. I can't see the Rays landing Syndergaard without including an MLB ready OF.
12.) 11 Dec 2018 05:55:28
Two further thoughts:
The Mets have expressed a desire to acquire/ bring in a true centerfielder. Conforto is really not a centerfielder by trade. Lagares is the only true centerfielder they have.
Almost all of Kiermaier's injuries have been freak injuries, so it's not a specific chronic reoccurring issue. Most, however, are related to his style of aggressive play (diving in the outfield, sliding into bases, ect) .
13.) 11 Dec 2018 07:53:05
What if you replace Duffy with a back end reliever like Stanek? The Rays have a plethora of young relievers. Mets are thought to be seeking a set up man for Diaz.
14.) 11 Dec 2018 08:08:00
Then add Kiermaier to the package.
15.) 11 Dec 2018 10:01:19
Kiermaier is a centerpiece, not an add on. I know we don't see eye to eye on "surplus value", but if Kiermaier produces an average of 3 wins over the life of his contract, we are talking 50+ million surplus. Two years ago, Kiermaier was considered a top 25 asset due to his contract. At a 600 PA rate, Kiermaier has been worth an average of 4.49 wins in his career. If he plays a full season, he is a borderline MVP candidate. His injuries are not reoccurring or nagging, they are freak injuries from playing the game hard. He's one of the few players you have to watch on a daily basis to really appreciate, so I get it if you don't "see" his value.
16.) 11 Dec 2018 15:24:37
Kiermaier is still guaranteed 44M over the next 4 seasons. That doesn't seem like a lot, until you consider he's only giving you 400 PAs a year.
I don't care HOW Kiermaier gets the injuries. I'd surmise most GMs wouldn't, either. Whether it's injuries on the field or from cutting your hand while making a ham sandwich (a la Matt Cain), it still takes you off the field. At this point, we can call him injury prone. There's no way around it. A team should expect him to be on the field more.
None of this says anything about what kind of a player Kiermaier is. He's incredible. But he can't stay healthy, he's getting older, and he's getting more expensive.
For Noah Syndergaard, who is of a more desirous and valued position right now, I'd say a reasonable offer would be Kiermaier, Honeywell, and Fox. And I don't think the Mets even remotely entertain such an idea, for what it's worth.
17.) 11 Dec 2018 15:28:37
For what it's worth, you and I both like Fangraphs. We both read and appreciate it.
Kiley McDaniels, in his 2018 Trade Value piece, has Syndergaard at #29. He doesn't even have Kiermaier in the honorable mention.
Not saying he's 100% correct, but I think there'd be a fairly good consensus that Syndergaard's value is very high. I'd say if Syndergaard plays a full season, he probably ranks in the top 15. He's insanely good.
18.) 11 Dec 2018 21:04:35
Rays probably trade Arroyo instead of Duffy here.
09 Dec 2018 18:05:25
I see where you’re coming from, I was debating McKay or Honeywell, as well as Baz and Fox but it’s going to take 2 top 100 prospects plus another piece. Definitely wouldn’t be as much if they took on Kipnis as well but I don’t see them adding that much money.