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16 Nov 2018 08:11:01
Here is an idea:

Mariners get Paul DeJong
Cardinals get Dee Gordon, Alex Colome


Mariners get a power-hitting SS and Cards get a speedy utility and an underrated bullpen asset.

Just a thought.

flappybird995

1.) 16 Nov 2018 17:12:11
Not sure this makes sense as the Mariners already have an All-Star shortstop in Segura and the Cardinals do not have an in-house replacement at SS.


 

 

14 Nov 2018 23:11:30
Could the Red Sox make these moves in the offseason?

Send Eduardo Rodriguez to Washington for Anthony Rendon? (Note 1)

Send Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, Jackie Bradley Jr, and Rafael Devers to Miami for JT Realmuto and Starlin Castro? (Note 2)

Sign Kelvin Herrera 2/12?

Re-sign Craig Kimbrel 4/80?

Sign Dallas Keuchel 5/115?

Sign Anibal Sanchez 2/16

How would this roster do?

Lineup:
1. Benintendi LF
2. Betts CF
3. Martinez DH
4. Rendon 3B
5. Realmuto C
6. Castro 2B
7. Moreland 1B
8. Bogaerts SS
9. Holt RF

Bench:
1. Nunez IF
2. Pedroia 2B (if healthy)
3. Lin UT
4. Vasquez C

Rotation:
1. Sale
2. Keuchel
3. Price
4. Sanchez
5. Porcello

Bullpen:
1. Brasier RP
2. Hembree RP
3. Barnes RP
4. Poyner RP
5. Workman SU
6. Herrera SU
7. Kimbrel CL

Note 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez is a valuable LHP who has 3 more years of team control, the same amount as Max Scherzer. This one works well for both teams. The Nationals need another arm if they are truly looking to go deep into October in 2019, though I based this on the assumption they will sell. The Nationals also have Carter Kieboom who is nearly big-league ready, and could try to move him to 3rd.

The Red Sox need an upgrade at 3rd from Devers, and Anthony Rendon could be what the Red Sox are looking for. Boston might have to give up more though. Not sure. Rendon is a FA after next year.

Note 2 - The Marlins won't compete for at least 2 more years. But all of the players they get have at least 3 more years of team control. They get 4 good young players, and in the event they do compete in 2021 and beyond, it makes pieces like Lewis Brinson trade chips.

The Red Sox get their much needed catching upgrade, and Brock Holt as a superutility moves to RF to replace Bradley as he is better than JD defensively. Castro fills Holt's spot at second.

Quick note - There are trades involving the Red Sox on other sheets. I may or may not apply it to each of the teams I involve on these hypothetical offseasons.

Any thoughts? Also I realize these trades don't happen in a vacuum. It's all hypothetical.

flappybird995

1.) 15 Nov 2018 01:46:00
the first trade isn't good for either team, I think more on both sides need to be added. the second one is terrible for the Red Sox. Herrera will probably sign for more money. Kuechel doesn't fit any where on the Red Sox. I could see Kimbrel coming back. Overall the team you listed is not as good as this years team.


2.) 15 Nov 2018 03:58:26
Rendon has been worth 6+ WAR in each of his past two seasons (17 over his last three seasons) .

It's going to take a hell of a lot more to acquire him. A return I'm not sure the Red Sox even have.


3.) 15 Nov 2018 04:21:59
Consider this:

Over the past three seasons, only one third baseman has put up a higher WAR than Rendon (17.3): Jose Ramirez (19.2). He's been better than Bryant (16.9), Arenado (16.4), and even Manny Machado (15.1). Over the past two seasons, the gap between Rendon and the #3 3B gets even wider (13.0 vs. Bryant's 11.3).

He's a pretty safe bet to be worth 5 wins, and put up a 130 wRC+, at the very least.

If the Red Sox offered that, it wouldn't get hung up on. Mike Rizzo would have to spend 20 minutes making sure it's not a prank call. That's so laughably terrible.


4.) 15 Nov 2018 05:31:59
BATMAN! :

1. Rendon-for-Rodriguez swap makes both teams better and fills each other's needs.

2. JT Realmuto AND Starlin Castro? That's great come on man. Even for that price. Realmuto has 2 years of team control as does Castro. We know about Chavis' PED use, Devers hasn't worked out for Boston, Travis is a good piece, and JBJ is good, but having a good catcher instead of Sandy Leon who hit 211 with a war of -0.5 or Christian Vazquez who hit 207 with a WAR of -0.8! They literally took a win away! Come on man!

3. Hererra won't sign for much more. Teams will target Britton, Kimbrel, Miller or even Cody Allen well ahead of Herrera.

4. So can I.

5. And um. HOW IS THIS WORSE THAN LAST YEAR?


5.) 15 Nov 2018 07:12:09
The Nationals are not better off with E-Rod instead of Rendon.

They could literally sign any of a half dozen pitchers, or trade for someone without including him.

Heck, the Nats could land Rodriguez without Rendon, Soto, or Robles.


6.) 15 Nov 2018 10:52:56
thestatbook,

Rendon has put up a WAR of 14.1 over the last 3 years, and it was only 4.2 in 2018. Get your facts right before you tell them.

Anthony Rendon Profile

Rodriguez put up a WAR of 3.0 in just 23 starts - a little bit more than two-thirds of how many starts a pitcher has each year. The Nationals have more room for him on their staff. So for argument's sake let's say a pitcher has 33 starts a year. A 3.0 WAR over 23 starts puts him on pace for a 4.3 WAR over the course of 33 starts. He is another arm the Nationals need. Not to mention he is nearly 10 million dollars cheaper than Rendon. The Red Sox sign Keuchel and Anibal Sanchez making Rodriguez tradeable.

If the Nationals do trade Rendon but plan to contend again in 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez could be their guy. Not to mention his value will go DOWN from here as well.


7.) 15 Nov 2018 13:29:57
Just noticed that you have them signing Anibal Sanchez, I think he proved he needs to stay in the National League. He was quite terrible for the Tigers his entire tenure there. You are still a fool for thinking Herrera will only sign for 6 million a year, he's one of the better relief pitchers and will get more. It just doesn't seem like your listed team will be any better than this year's team. For the Rodriguez/ Rendon sway, its rare there is a one for one trade, and I would think both sides would want more than one player, especially the Nationals for Rendon.


8.) 15 Nov 2018 15:51:05
I use Fangraphs WAR. There’s a difference there. So my facts are correct.

You also have no idea how WAR is calculated. It’s not a counting stat, so tallying a “rate” doesn’t work that way. The point is, one year of Rendon is significantly more valuable than 3-4 of E-Rod.

I don’t know why you think of these silly, extremely unlikely (that’s putting it very generously) trades: Acuna, Berrios, Scherzer, Benintendi.

It’s not even that they are unlikely. They aren’t good. And you acting like you should do these for every team is hilarious. I mean, do what you want if it makes you happy. But these trades are terrible and ridiculous.


9.) 15 Nov 2018 19:33:12
hey thestatbook, i feel like flappybird is someone who use to be on here all the time. the terrible posts seem familiar and his defense for these also seems familiar, don't you think?


10.) 15 Nov 2018 20:29:19
I agree. I’ve been trying to figure out who, though.

These are absolutely terrible.


11.) 15 Nov 2018 20:45:59
I was going to say crazysull, but sull is a Red Sox fan and this guy has stated he is a Yankees fan.


12.) 15 Nov 2018 22:28:07
"You also have no idea how WAR is calculated. It’s not a counting stat, so tallying a “rate” doesn’t work that way. "

You just love bulling people on here, don't you?

WAR is a counting stat, in a sense. WAR is the aggregate of rate based statistics measured over time. The more IP or PA in which you accrue positive rates, the higher your corresponding WAR will be. And yes, you can prorate WAR, assuming the base rates remain constant.

Maybe explain this to other posters instead of trying to insult them. Just a thought.


13.) 15 Nov 2018 23:41:55
No, it's not a counting stat. Literally no sabermetrics guys consider it one. It's a "rate" because of win concentration and because of run environments. It's also a rate because it's not like 1 game = x, 2 games = x, etc. Games only help because it helps them accrue stats. Those same games also allows them to lose value (more on that in a few) .

In order to mete it out on a per start/ game basis requires not just the player to continue playing the same way, at the same rate, with no deviation, but it requires the entire LEAGUE to do so. The chances of the entire run environment to remain constant is so small, you may as well call it impossible.

Besides, it's manipulative. The argument assumes that 'if Rodriguez did "X", then his WAR would be "Y. "'

The problem is: His WAR is "Y" because he failed to do "X". What is stoping teams like the Giants from saying, "You should buy on Steven Duggar because, had he played 162 games, he was worth almost 3 wins! "? It's exceptionally manipulative.

It's also manipulative because it assumes there would be no deviation in any of those "phantom" games. He's only going to be very good in them. That's about as manipulative, speculative, and wrong as it gets.


14.) 16 Nov 2018 02:10:36
I will put out the disclaimer I'm a Red Sox fan.

E-Rod does not get you Rendon. If it does, I'm all for it though. But it won't.

I wouldn't move all of that for Realmuto. The Sox have three capable catchers on the roster, if not any stars. I don't understand why I keep seeing people all over the internet saying that Devers "hasn't worked out for Boston. " The kid just turned 22 last month! He's nowhere close to the player he will become. You probably would have jettisoned Xander in his second year too.

I'm a JBJ fan, and I think his defense in center field is almost as important to the performance of that pitching staff the last few years as anyone on the roster, but if they can pull something big back in a trade coming off that playoff performance, they have to at least listen. This isn't that move though.

If Holt is your everyday starter in RF, you aren't as good as this season. He is very valuable as a supersub, not as much as an every day starter.

Herrera and Kimbrel I'm good with even at the more expensive pricetag it will take to get Herrera than you've shown. The two starters. no thanks. Sanchez is done, especially in the AL, and Keuchel will get way too much considering his last couple of seasons have been very meh.


15.) 16 Nov 2018 22:41:39
thestatbook;

"No, it's not a counting stat. Literally no sabermetrics guys consider it one. "

Rather than argue in circles, I decided to outsource this question to a couple baseball writers that I regularly correspond with via email.

Here is my question and the response from Eno Sarris, Baseball Analytics Writer for the Athletic, former Editor and Writer for Fangraphs, and Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs writer and author of "Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance"

Me - “Could you settle an argument for me in reference to WAR? So would you characterize WAR as more of a counting stat or rate state? My position is that it is more of a counting stat, because it's the aggregate of rate stat effects accrued over time. Aside from weighing the sample size for a rate stat and whether or not it has stabilized, time is really not a variable. I know there are rate stats involved in calculating WAR, but I think it is more of the positive or negative effect those rate stats have had during any given amount of time. So you are essentially "counting" negative and positive attributions of rate stats in the context of runs and wins, right? While the peripheral conditions may change, that is just interdependent on the variable of time. Point being, it's tough to define haha. Is there a better way you would explain this? ”

Eno - "It's interesting. I think of it as a counting stat, but its one of the rare counting stats that can be negative going forward, which makes it act as a rate stat in a way. But the very basic component of WAR is runs, and runs is a counting stat. Because of the 'replacement' concept, it can be negative going forward, is all. Does that help? "


Mike - "It's most certainly a counting stat since WAR can rise or fall with more playing time. Even if the player performs exactly the same, more playing time will change it. That wouldn't be the case if it were a rate stat. There are no rate stats in WAR, you can't turn rate stats into a counting stat. You might think FIP is part of WAR, but it's really the counting stats used to calculate FIP. "


16.) 17 Nov 2018 22:41:54
I would disagree with both on their stances of what constitutes WAR as a "counting stat". It's an aggregate of stats compared to a league average aggregate of stats, adjusted for positions, ballparks, run environments, etc, then weighed against "replacement" level.

If you want to simplify it to "it goes up and down, and thus it's a counting stat", sure. But we can hopefully all agree this is an extremely simplified answer with no explanation of the nuance involved (I can't blame Eno or Mike for giving you the simple answer, they have better things to do with their time) .

If you don't want to call it a "rate", that's also fine. Call it a value stat, then.

But to call it a counting stat, on the notion that it "goes up and down" is no better than calling an airplane a car because it has wheels.


17.) 17 Nov 2018 22:45:25
And the "counting stat" vs. "rate stat" argument still doesn't settle the issue at hand:

It's utterly manipulative, and shows a massive misunderstanding of how WAR works when you think you can just say "had player A played X games, his WAR would be Y"

Because, again, it assumes that all variables remain constant: at the player level, the "replacement level", the run environment, and all other circumstances.

In fact, Mike even hinted at something (perhaps intentionally, who knows) that would make such an argument rather silly: the more games played, the more variations you can have. If anything, an estimation of WAR on MORE games would be a very, very difficult thing to project, and anyone suggesting it is blowing smoke.


18.) 17 Nov 2018 23:12:12
The other problem with considering WAR a "counting stat" is that the folks who created it have even said there are areas in which it can't be differentiated.

"WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. "

What we would traditionally consider a "counting stat" (HR, RBI, SB, W, K, BB, etc), there's a distinguishable difference. The difference between a guy who hit 30 HR and one who hit 31 is 1 home run. That's a tangible, measurable thing. While it says nothing of value, it's distinguishable. We can compare the two and say one hitter was better in that department.

6.4 and 6.1 are not the same thing, I would imagine you agree. And the difference is 0.3. But if we can "distinguish", then what are we counting. What exactly constitutes "0.1" wins above replacement? How do we count that, and if it's countable, it should be distinguishable at the minute levels.

WAR is a value stat. It doesn't "count" anything tangible.


 

 

13 Nov 2018 09:59:59
Could the Rays make these moves during the offseason? We saw them win 90 games in 2018 in a stacked AL East, and AL in general. Here's how they could be legitimate World Series contenders on a limited budget. If this would happen, they have to risk the next 5 and go all in next year:

Sign Brian Dozier - 1/7 (value has never been lower after a disastrous 2018, but still a great hitter)

Sign JA Happ - 2/17 (underrated and the type of move the Rays would make, has plenty of AL East experience)

Sign Jed Lowrie - 2/14 (also the type of move the Rays would pull)

Sign Drew Pomeranz - 1/6 (teams will overlook him, look for the Rays to swoop in and pick him up)

Re-sign Sergio Romo - 1/2

Send Jesus Sanchez, Shane McClanahan, and Lucius Fox to the Marlins for JT Realmuto

Send Brendan McKay and Shane Baz to the Mariners for Edwin Diaz

Send Christian Arroyo and Jose De Leon to the Cardinals for Marcell Ozuna


How would this roster do?

Lineup:
1. Dozier DH
2. Lowrie 3B
3. Realmuto C
4. Ozuna LF
5. Bauers 1B
6. Pham RF
7. Wendle 2B
8. Kiermaier CF
9. Adames SS

Rotation:
1. Snell
2. Happ
3. Pomeranz
4. Yarbrough
5. Glasnow

Bench:
1. Perez C
2. Choi 1B
3. Duffy 3B
4. Lowe 2B

Bullpen:
1. Romo RP
2. Stanek RP
3. Stanek RP
4. Kolarek SU
5. Alvarado SU
6. Roe SU
7. Diaz CL

If this happens, look out for the Rays to win at least 97 games. What are the chances it does happen?

QUESTIONS: SHOULD I KEEP DOING THESE? WHAT TEAMS SHOULD I DO THEM FOR? LET ME KNOW BELOW. ENJOY!

flappybird995

1.) 13 Nov 2018 10:02:57
Error - I put Stanek twice. I meant to put Anthony Banda there.


2.) 13 Nov 2018 13:37:56
Happ, Dozier, Pomeranz, and Lowrie will all sign for more money and some will sign longer term deals.


3.) 13 Nov 2018 14:56:35
You seem to struggle with the fact that trades don't happen in a vacuum. If Diaz becomes available (every indication suggests he won't), just about every team is going to offer something for him.

Bauers and Baz isn't horrible, but it's not a top offer, and it would get so quickly outbid by someone else. Start considering the market and recognizing how trades work if you want to continue these.

Also, did you completely ignore the Mike Zunino deal?


4.) 13 Nov 2018 15:22:30
Now that the Rays have added Zunino, here is their checklist for the offseason:

- Right handed impact bat: Rays have already been associated with Donaldson and Cruz, as well as trade candidates like Goldschmidt and Jose Martinez

- One traditional starter: They could be big players for someone like Carrasco or a FA like Morton or Cahill

- Back end bullpen arm: Plenty of big names on the FA market, personally I would like them to make a push for Nate Jones, as the White Sox are still rebuilding and the Rays have tons of prospects to offer.

Either way, the Rays not only have 30-40 million to spend this offseason but they also have the prospect capitol to make a big move.


5.) 13 Nov 2018 16:27:48
Rays had 30-40M to spend last year. Instead, their owners stole it and they sold any player who made a couple bucks.

I don't think the owners have suddenly begun to care about putting a product on the field this winter.


6.) 13 Nov 2018 17:13:52
ummmm. they came into 2018 with a record high payroll and won 90 games. I have no idea what you are talking about in reference to having "30-40M" to spend, that is not accurate at all.

Going into 2019, they only have 35 or so million committed to the roster and are not losing any key players to free agency. In fact, the Rays have even more top prospects on the way close to the major league level. If they set the same payroll restrictions as last season, they would have roughly 30-40 million to spend this offseason. The Rays window for contention is wide open.

I assume you are referencing the Longoria, Dickerson and Odorizzi trades? Let's be honest, Longoria had a horrible year (15% below league average offensively) and Matt Duffy outproduced him by a large margin. for league minimum. Longoria is still owed another 70 million over the next 4 years, the Rays were lucky to get rid of that contract.

Odorizzi had another mediocre year (7-10 4.49 ERA) and the Dickerson trade was about making room for Mallex Smith, who had a better season anyways. The Rays were trying to get younger and open up spots for their top prospects, not just to save money and be cheap.


7.) 13 Nov 2018 18:29:58
They traded away almost every player under contract. Kiermaier is their only player with an actual "contract", and that's for only $8M.

Nearly 50% of their payroll in 2018 was moved off the roster. Longoria, Span, Colome, Hechavarria, Archer, Miller, Ramos, Eovaldi. If they make a couple bucks, they get moved. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kiermaier get moved this winter, either. Of the 68M in payroll they had, only half was still on the roster at the end of the season.

Tampa Bay is going to have a really hard time selling the idea of going there when the players and their agents know there's a good chance they are with a new club by July.

And for what it's worth, I can tell you matter of factly that the MLBPA is in the process of filing a grievance against Tampa Bay for not using their revenue sharing money to put players on the field. I think that'll be a huge blow to Tampa Bay, and in looking for new cities, it could be a critical blow if they lose revenue sharing dollars because the owners are greedy pigs.


8.) 13 Nov 2018 22:19:51
I know that trades don't happen in a vacuum - these are hypothetical. I didn't actually know that the MLBPA are in a grievance with the Rays, I just thought they were sellers because they didn't think they would contend. As for the signings, I recognize how difficult it is to sell Tampa as an appealing landing spot, but it is something the Rays can't afford if their owners change their ways.

I think they may have started to care about putting a good product on the field though. Remember how they were legit contenders every year from 2008-13? I think the owners might recognize they can do the same with this bunch by adding a few key pieces.


9.) 13 Nov 2018 22:21:24
Also I forgot about the Zunino deal, I don't know what happened there haha. They need a backup catcher anyway though. Who knows what could happen? I agree with you in saying that the Realmuto deal has a tiny chance of happening after acquiring Zunino.


10.) 14 Nov 2018 23:32:37
This is so full of misinformation, I feel obligated to reply.

First off, you act like you NEED to spend money to be successful. Somehow, if you don't, there is no way you can be deemed successful, is this right?

Secondly, it's old news that the MLBPA filed a grievance against 4 MLB teams, including the Rays, nearly 8 MONTHS AGO. Since then, there has been data produced to back up the claims from these teams, that they were, in fact, spending the same percentage of revenue as all of the big market teams. Thanks for this "new" information? The Rays spent .1% less than the average MLB team, well within the acceptable margin.

https:/ / www. draysbay. com/ 2018/ 2/ 26/ 17054394/ tampa-bay-rays-payroll-salary-spending-dollar-dollar-bills-yall

https:/ / www. tampabay. com/ blogs/ rays/ 2018/ 02/ 27/ players-union-files-grievance-vs-rays-3-other-teams-over-revenue-sharing-spending/

Nowhere close to 50% of the 2018 payroll was moved off the roster. Yes, Longoria's dead contract was moved for Span's contract, which was only a difference of about 4.5 million dollars for 2018. So starting with the opening day payroll of 77 million, the Rays only subtracted 28% of their in-season payroll through trades during the season, not 50%.

Even so, the players they traded away were not worth the money they were being paid. Here are some (all of) the examples that your referenced:

- Longoria: due 70 million over the next 4 years, posted 0.4 WAR and 85 wRC+ in 2018
- Span: Rays saved 6 million dollars for 2018 and the option for 2019 was declined by Seattle for 4 million dollars
- Colome: Rays saved 4.2 million dollars, pitched to a 3.77 FIP after trade
- Hechavarria: Rays saved 1.95 million dollars, worth 0.4 WAR in 2018
- Miller: Rays saved 3.02 million, posted 0.0 WAR and 97 wRC+ in 2018
- Archer: Rays saved 2.06 million for 2018, pitched to a 4.30 ERA after trade
- Ramos: Rays saved 3.74 million
- Eovaldi: Rays saved 660K

Lets look at the players that the Rays had replace these "all-stars"

- Smith (replacing Span) : posted a 3.4 WAR for the season
- Wendle (replacing Miller) : posted a 3.7 WAR for the season
- Duffy (replacing Longoria) : posted a 2.4 WAR for the season
- Adames (replacing Hechavarria) : posted a 1.3 WAR for the season
- Alvarado (replacing Colome) : posted a 2.27 FIP in high leverage situations for the season
- Perez (replacing Ramos) : posted a 89 wRC+ in rookie season after trade
- Lowe (replacing Miller) : posted a 113 wRC+ in rookie season after all-star break
- Meadows (return for Archer trade) : posted 223 wRC+ in 179 PA at AAA after trade
- Glasnow (return for Archer) : posted a 3.47 xFIP after trade for Rays
- Beeks (return for Eovaldi) : posted 2.69 FIP in AAA for 2018

"I think that'll be a huge blow to Tampa Bay, and in looking for new cities, it could be a critical blow if they lose revenue sharing dollars because the owners are greedy pigs. "

Again, your opinion is completely based on lack of information. The Rays currently have a new stadium lined up and have until the end of the year to secure the funding. The Rays are not losing revenue sharing dollars in the future, they are clearly within the mean of revenue percentage spending, which is a much smaller margin than you would suspect.

And again, I feel like I must reiterate, after the Rays traded away all of the players that you referenced, they had the 4th highest winning percentage in baseball. The Rays won 90 games on the year, with a higher winning percentage in the second half after all of these "big money" players were traded away. Do you think that maybe the Rays might just have really talented young players that deserve to play over the overpaid veterans, maybe? And, maybe, they still have these very talented players, with more on the way, under control for very cheap, which gives them financial flexibility this offseason to add more salary?

Weird, I could swear the Rays are in the top 10 for 2019 power rankings. oh wait, they are.

goo.gl/nhzvqi


11.) 15 Nov 2018 04:04:49
You don't NEED to spend money. But the players deserve their share of the profits. The Rays, instead of paying the product people came to see, they kept the profits, especially for the second half. They cleared most the money off the books by July/ August.

Just admit, the Rays found a way to win despite having incredibly greedy pigs for owners. I don't care how successful they were when they literally stole money from the players.

They'll lose their revenue sharing if they continue to pocket it instead of putting it on the field (which is what it's purpose is) .


12.) 15 Nov 2018 04:10:30
Again, I'm going to laugh when no one wants to go to Tampa Bay this winter. As I've asked, why would they? Why would they sign up to go to a rubbishty stadium, with rubbishty owners, and no fan base, only to get moved to another city in 4 months?

Trust me, agents and the players are well aware of how garbage the situation in Tampa Bay is. And they can continue to win with controllable players, until the MLBPA issues their NEW grievance, which is what I'm referencing. You'll see it come into play sooner or later.

I don't care how many games they win. Their owners are greedy pigs who keep the money from players. The MLBPA will win to get that money dished out to the current roster and the Rays won't have the money to pocket for a new stadium.

Then the team will move back to Montreal, and leave hole that is Tampa. And all will be right in baseball again.


13.) 15 Nov 2018 19:36:23
I am going to say this, the Rays were lucky to win 90 games last year. They had basically one starter the whole year, they got lucky with this "opener" concept, but it needs to die before it becomes more of thing. If a team needs a spot starter or an emergency start, then fine. But Tampa has very few fans, most people that live in the area are Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Phillie fans, like the rest of Florida.


14.) 15 Nov 2018 20:15:30
Holy crap, man. Is this a baseball forum or a Trump rally? You are so full of hate and rhetoric. Seriously, did the Rays personally do something to you? Does it anger you to see small market teams do well with a low payroll? Wow, dude.

Ok. let's address your concerns:

- Again, the Rays pay the same percentage of their revenue as every other team. “As a percentage, the Rays spent 56.2% of revenue on their players in 2017, which is nearly identical to Lindbergh’s findings for baseball overall. ”

- “until the MLBPA issues their NEW grievance, which is what I'm referencing”…Please feel free to support your claims with links as I have

- Do you think small market teams should be penalized and forced to spend a higher percentage of their revenues than large market teams? The whole point behind revenue sharing was not only to provide financial support to the smaller market clubs, and create a more level playing ground, but also to keep teams in large markets in check.

- The Rays are not tanking. The Rays are a competitive team that just happens to be smart with their money and have a strong farm system. I assume you had a huge issue when the Cubs and Astros tanked? Were their owners “greedy pigs” too? I'd hope so.

- “Incredibly greedy pigs for owners…literally stole money from the players”…Again, this is just false, hateful rhetoric. Stuart Sternberg and his group are well liked and respected in the area. They are doing the best they can with their current situation and are actively trying very hard to improve the Rays future. They are not “literally” stealing from anyone just because they don’t spend more money than they have to.

- You continually fail to recognize that the more expensive, older players the Rays traded away performed worse than the younger cheaper players who replaced them. So you think teams should just roster more expensive, worse players instead of better, cheaper players? Wouldn't that lead to less wins? The Rays GM just finished second for MLB executive of the year, I think most in the baseball world think he's doing a damn good job.

- The MLBPA and the owners created guidelines, of which the Rays are complying.

- If you are so concerned about “money for players, ” how about you focus your energy on getting teams to pay their minor leaguers more money? You know that the average lower-level minor leaguer makes around 1,100 dollars a month? The average AAA players only makes around 10,000 a month. If anything, teams who rely on their minor league depth are actually HELPING these young, poor players make more "money". As soon as one of these minor league players is added to the 40 man roster, they make a minimum of 40 thousand a month, and soon as they make it to the major leagues, they obviously make a base salary of 550+ thousand a year. But you would rather see these spots go to less talented, older guys who already have millions of dollars in the bank?

- You should talk about the MLBPA and owners getting together to make the DH universal. That alone would create 15 job openings right away. A lot of the players who have had a tough time findings jobs of late in free agency are defensively challenged hitters. Making the DH universal would be a huge boon for their market. How about MLB just expands the major league roster to 26 or 27 players? They have been talking about doing this for years. Seems like a more productive suggestion.

- Here are some facts about Tropicana Field:

- Yes, the stadium kinda sucks because it’s a dome. You just don’t get the same baseball atmosphere as you would Fenway, Rigley, etc.

- However, the Rays ownerships has poured a lot of money into making sure the stadium is in excellent condition and is a pleasant experience inside. Having been to Yankee, Shea, and Fenway, I can tell you that the Trop is way cleaner, bigger, and has way more fan experience features inside. It is not a “rubbishty (sp? ) ” stadium.

- The biggest problem with Tropicana Field is the location, not the fan base. The Rays actually have one of the better TV market viewerships in MLB. Where the stadium is located right now, it has by far the smallest residential population within a 30 minute radius than any other MLB team. In fact, it is smaller than some AAA teams. Tampa Bay is quite large, however the stadium is located at the southern most part of Tampa Bay, down in south St. Petersburg. Further, the demographic for this area is full of old retirees, not exactly the young fan base a team needs to thrive.

- The Rays ownership has been working very, very hard for many years on getting a new stadium. Unfortunately, they are still working off of a pre-existing lease that doesn’t even expire until 2027. The Rays ownership have also had to deal with a mayor that refused to let the Rays break their lease. Thankfully, a newly elected mayor has given the Rays the opportunity to secure a new stadium in a better location.

- The Rays have long been plagued by one of the lowest-revenue television deals in baseball. However, The Sports Business Journal reports the Rays are close to a 15-year extension with Fox Sports regional Sun Sports network that will pay on average $82 million per year, almost 3 times more than their current deal. When the Rays secure a new stadium in Tampa and a new television deal, they will be able to attract more fans and corporate support and should be able to dramatically increase their payroll. The Rays management is just desperately trying to get across the finish line and get the process started.

- “I don't care how many games they win. ” Isn’t that the whole point, to win games? If they are smart with their money and can win lots of games despite not throwing their money away, why should they have to spend more? Sure, I completely agree that teams should not be allowed to tank and teams should spend more money to win, but the Rays are winning. The Rays are one of the winningest teams over the past 10 years. Spending more money on older players with no market is not going to make them better, so why do it? The Rays worked very hard to build back up their farm system and now it is starting to bare fruit.

- Have you actually been to Tampa btw? curious.

- In closing, it seems like the biggest issues you have are not with the Rays in particular, but with the collect bargaining agreement that both the owners and the MLBPA agreed upon. Why you insist on taking out these frustrations out on the Rays specifically is beyond me. It's like being angry at a girl for liking the guy with the better sense of humor and personality instead of the guy who spends the most money on her. Sometimes, guys just got game.


15.) 15 Nov 2018 21:06:28
Me spending my "energy" going after the Rays actually fits into my ethic. If you believe players should get paid, then it only follows that you should go after those who aren't paying the players.

You seem to think it's okay to systematically withhold the revenue from employees if it means being successful. Which makes your "Trump rally" comment hilariously ironic.

If I owned a business, I could be far more successful in making money if I only paid all my employees eight bucks an hour and just get rid of all those who probably deserve a raise or those who make twelve an hour. I'd be wildly successful, because I'd make more money.

The players deserve the lions share of the profits. I don't care WHO gets that money. Give it to Blake Snell for all I care.

But the owners and front office aren't even being secretive about withholding the profits from the players. And I can't envision players lining up to play there (if Tampa Bay really truly even offers those players anything. We'll see) .


16.) 15 Nov 2018 21:17:37
It's so blatantly obvious that Zack Greinke (albeit a VERY smart dude) has flat out said that the Rays are looking to withhold money from the players.

One article put it this way: "The owners save this money and pocket it instead of reinvesting it into the team. Then they’ll turn around, cry poor, and ask residents of Tampa to foot the billion-dollar bill for a new stadium in Ybor City, roughly 25 minutes from their current digs. "

Just accept the truth for what it is: The Rays owners have a new stadium to help finance. And so they're refusing to pay the players, because every penny they pay the players goes against the profits they are trying to generate for themselves.

This isn't cynical, it's something being done right in front of your eyes. And their justification is that it wins games. The Rays ownership are flimflamming the residents better than LeBron did to Akron with "his" school. Pull your head out of the sand and see the truth: They are conning the city into building them a stadium, all the while running to the bank with the profits.

I just really hope the folks in Tampa aren't dumb enough to actually fall for this. I'm not holding out hope.


 

 

13 Nov 2018 05:31:35
Could the Yankees make these moves this offseason?

Send Justus Sheffield, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jonathan Holder to the Nationals for Max Scherzer? Yankees eat all of the approximately 90m left on Scherzer's deal.

Send Sonny Gray, and Clint Frazier to the Tigers for Nick Castallenos?

Send Dellin Betances, Tyler Wade, and Chance Adams to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe? (note 1 below)

Send Estevan Florial, and Matt Sauer to the Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt?

Send Aaron Hicks and Jacoby Ellsbury to the Dodgers for Chris Taylor? Yankees take on 15M of the 44M left on Ellsbury's contract. He does have a player option after 2020 though.

Sign Patrick Corbin 5/90? (note 2 below)

Re-sign David Robertson 2/12?


How would this roster do?

1. Renfroe CF
2. Judge RF
3. Goldschmidt 1B
4. Stanton DH
5. Torres 2B
6. Sanchez C
7. Andujar 3B
8. Castallenos SS
9. Taylor LF

Rotation:
1. Scherzer
2. Severino
3. Corbin
4. Tanaka
5. Sabathia

Bench:
1. Gardner
2. Voit
3. Romine
4. Torreyes

Bullpen:
1. Robertson
2. Kahnle
3. Green
4. German
5. Loaisiga
6. Robertson
7. Chapman


Note 1 - Betances has consistently struggled with command to the point he is unreliable in the postseason. The Padres could try to fix him and use him in the future. Chance Adams is overrated, but he could be a nice piece. He is still young. Tyler Wade is a super utility who is still young. That said, he didn't have a great big-league run.

Note 2 - Many have predicted that Corbin will get much more than I have said, but he is from Syracuse and he has consistently said he would love to play in pinstripes. I think he takes a hometown discount.


Please let me know your thoughts. I have already done a "possible winter moves" sheet for the Dodgers and I will continue doing it for other teams as well.

flappybird995

1.) 13 Nov 2018 06:26:15
As a padres fan that’s a lot for Hunter Renfroe. Lucky if you get only chance Adams.


2.) 13 Nov 2018 07:03:47
The trades seem unrealistic. But I think Corbin is a no-brainer for New York. His comments of wanting to play in NY make sense.

I don't know how much of a discount they'd get, but I don't think your projection is too far off what he'd get anywhere else.


3.) 13 Nov 2018 14:10:33
None of these trades are remotely good. I think it would take more to get Scherzer, who I doubt the Nationals would trade. The Castellanos trade doesn't make any sense. I also thought he was 3rd baseman. The Renfroe trade is really unnecessary, they have way to many outfielders already. They aren't interested in Goldschmidt and it would probably take more to get him. The Dodgers trade makes zero sense, the Dodgers have plenty of outfielders and if they Yankees find a partner for Ellsbury, it would take more than just eating 14 million. Finally Corbin is going to get over 100 million.


4.) 13 Nov 2018 14:58:26
Castellanos isn't a third baseman anymore. He's one of three 3B since 2000 who've had a worse season defensively at 3B since Andujar, for what it's worth.

So, no, definitely not a 3B.


5.) 13 Nov 2018 15:00:51
And Castellanos as a SHORTSTOP?

Do you even watch any of the guys you're talking about? Castellanos and Andujar on the left side of the infield would be so comically bad, they might lose 10 games just by those two buffoons alone.

I didn't even see you sneak that gem in there. That's hilarious.


6.) 13 Nov 2018 19:09:51
The following is a list of all the games Nick Castellanos has played at shortstop since being drafted at age 18:


 

 

13 Nov 2018 02:15:45
Some ideas for if the Indians completely tear it down...


Brewers get: Jose Ramirez
Indians get: Keston Hiura, Corey Ray, Orlando Arcia



Astros get: Corey Kluber
Indians get: Forrest Whitley, Yordan Alvarez, JB Bukauskas


Braves get: Trevor Bauer
Indians get: Kyle Wright, Austin Riley

Phillies get: Francisco Lindor, Brad Hand
Indians get: Alec Bohm, Adnois Medina, Scott Kingery


Yankees get: Edwin Encarnacion
Indians get: Albert Abreu, Jordan Montgomery


Rockies get: Carlos Carrasco
Indians get: Colton Welker, Antonio Senzatela


Top 100 prospects (according to MLB.com) and their ranks the Indians would get if these trades happened:

- Forrest Whitley (8)
- Kyle Wright (29)
- Keston Hiura (30)
- Yordan Alvarez (42)
- Austin Riley (43)
- Alec Bohm (50)
- Adonis Medina (64)
- Albert Abreu (85)
- Colton Welker (94)

If you factor in Triston McKenzie (38), and Nolan Jones (84), the Indians have 11 top 100 prospects. In the miraculous scenario these deals are possible, should the Indians take them or not?

flappybird995

1.) 13 Nov 2018 03:30:05
Nowhere close to enough for Ramirez or Lindor. The Indians will start asking for Mike Trout prices on those players. Regardless if you think that's fair, that's going to be the price tag.


2.) 13 Nov 2018 06:45:32
Lol they wouldn’t get Lindor and hand if they offered them the whole farm.


 

 

 

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15 Nov 2018 10:52:56
thestatbook,

Rendon has put up a WAR of 14.1 over the last 3 years, and it was only 4.2 in 2018. Get your facts right before you tell them.

Anthony Rendon Profile

Rodriguez put up a WAR of 3.0 in just 23 starts - a little bit more than two-thirds of how many starts a pitcher has each year. The Nationals have more room for him on their staff. So for argument's sake let's say a pitcher has 33 starts a year. A 3.0 WAR over 23 starts puts him on pace for a 4.3 WAR over the course of 33 starts. He is another arm the Nationals need. Not to mention he is nearly 10 million dollars cheaper than Rendon. The Red Sox sign Keuchel and Anibal Sanchez making Rodriguez tradeable.

If the Nationals do trade Rendon but plan to contend again in 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez could be their guy. Not to mention his value will go DOWN from here as well.

flappybird995

 

 

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15 Nov 2018 05:31:59
BATMAN! :

1. Rendon-for-Rodriguez swap makes both teams better and fills each other's needs.

2. JT Realmuto AND Starlin Castro? That's great come on man. Even for that price. Realmuto has 2 years of team control as does Castro. We know about Chavis' PED use, Devers hasn't worked out for Boston, Travis is a good piece, and JBJ is good, but having a good catcher instead of Sandy Leon who hit 211 with a war of -0.5 or Christian Vazquez who hit 207 with a WAR of -0.8! They literally took a win away! Come on man!

3. Hererra won't sign for much more. Teams will target Britton, Kimbrel, Miller or even Cody Allen well ahead of Herrera.

4. So can I.

5. And um. HOW IS THIS WORSE THAN LAST YEAR?

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13 Nov 2018 22:21:24
Also I forgot about the Zunino deal, I don't know what happened there haha. They need a backup catcher anyway though. Who knows what could happen? I agree with you in saying that the Realmuto deal has a tiny chance of happening after acquiring Zunino.

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13 Nov 2018 22:19:51
I know that trades don't happen in a vacuum - these are hypothetical. I didn't actually know that the MLBPA are in a grievance with the Rays, I just thought they were sellers because they didn't think they would contend. As for the signings, I recognize how difficult it is to sell Tampa as an appealing landing spot, but it is something the Rays can't afford if their owners change their ways.

I think they may have started to care about putting a good product on the field though. Remember how they were legit contenders every year from 2008-13? I think the owners might recognize they can do the same with this bunch by adding a few key pieces.

flappybird995

 

 

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13 Nov 2018 22:10:23
By trade 5 I meant the Panik for Santana swap. I missed the Carrasco deal, I like that as well.

flappybird995

 

 

 

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