27 Oct 2021 04:46:10
A 3-team, 10 player trade? Yes.

White Sox, Diamondbacks, Angels

White Sox Get:
Ketel Marte 2B/OF

DBacks Get:
Justin Upton OF
Griffin Canning RHP
Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF
Wes Kath 3B
Yolbert Sanchez SS
Micker Adolfo OF

Angels Get:
Nick Ahmed SS
David Peralta OF
Dallas Keuchel LHP

Thoughts?

1.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 15:05:36
The CWSox would love getting Ketel Marte. no doubt.

The rest of the deal is a mish-mash of distastefulness.

-Why would the Angels consider losing a young/ controllable SP. but would take back Old Man Keuchel? .

-The DBax are going full rebuild at this point. but would want a $ 28 MM salary from Justin Upton. Why would they want to see Amed leave and have his replacement as Sanchez?

It's a confusing deal for the DBax and Angels. but the CWSox definitely get their guy.

2.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 18:32:22
I'm not sure that Vaughn + Sanchez is enough to cover the $28M of unnecessary salary going to Arizona.

Not to mention, Griffin Canning isn't very good, and young pitching is something the Diamondbacks have quite a bit of, and most of them exist as better options than Canning.

And Adolfo will be out of options, so the Diamondbacks, who are rebuilding, would likely want a player they can option out if they should choose to. They can't do so with Adolfo.

3.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 18:35:10
As for the Angels, I think they might consider trading Ohtani for longer than they'd consider this deal.

They'll have a myriad of options via free agency for SS, OF, and starting pitching. Paying almost 35M for 3 past-prime players, when much, much better options exist elsewhere would be silly.

4.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 19:35:50
So Upton is essentially a sunk cost at this point. He hasn't been a league average hitter since 2018 and is a liability in the outfield. So he's going to sit on the bench or be a weak-side platoon piece as one of the highest AAVs in baseball. By offloading 100% of his money and acquiring Ahmed, Peralta and Keuchel for only another $6 million TOTAL, they would be filling three of their needs - 1. An above avg. defensive SS, 2. a left handed OFer who isn't exciting, but has much better upside than Upton IMO, and #. a back end starter (You could argue they need to add 4 SPs to be competitive) who, yes was objectively bad in 2021, but they can think of it as paying him $2 million in 2022 for a rebound. That defensive INF with Keuchel's GB% would be a nice pairing theoretically.

Again, it's a $6 million addition for all three guys in 2022, so you can defiantly go out and sign two more SPs (Scherzer, Ray, etc. ) and a versatile bat (a la Chris Taylor) .

By taking on Upton for 2022 in this deal, they actually still net $20 million in savings, so it's not just the prospects in exchange for taking on $.

And I disagree about Adolfo, Nate. Arizona is exactly the team where he makes sense as they would be able to give him opportunities to see if his raw talent can manifest into Major League production. If he stinks, they can just outright him likely without fear that he'd be claimed.

5.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 19:39:09
To be honest, I expect to see a lot of posts from Chi Sox where the White Sox conveniently find a taker for Dallas Keuchel and also get something good for him.

So let's remind the world of Dallas Keuchel's stats:
ERA- 5.28
FIP- 5.22
K/ 9- 5.28
K/ BB- 1.61

Now, for his rank among all starters with 100 innings pitched minimum (129 players in total)

ERA- 114th
FIP- 120th
K/ 9- 128th
K/ BB- 128th

He's literally one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And yet, the White Sox can both dump him off to the Angels AND get Ketel Marte as a part of that package, without taking on any money themselves.

How awfully convenient!

6.) 28 Oct 2021
28 Oct 2021 20:14:25
If you read above (this often needs to be reiterated with you, Nate) -- like I said, Keuchel was bad in '21, so thanks for finding evidence to confirm what I already said? LAA would essentially be paying next to nothing for him. They have no use for Upton, Keuchel has an opportunity to bounce back to be a serviceable veteran left-hander with plenty of postseason experience, whether you think that's likely or not.

The Sox are also giving up some good young players here. They, along with LAA, are filling holes inexpensively. Arizona is getting 5 controllable players and save money in total while getting it off their books quicker.

So saying an Ohtani trade is more likely is completely asinine and right up your alley.

7.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 01:57:44
"Post season experience"

He had an 8.10 ERA in the 2020 playoffs and was so bad in 2021 that the White Sox didn't even let him pitch in the postseason. Unless the White Sox are paying down 12-15M of Keuchel's salary, I see zero reason why the Angels would want to shell out 18M for a #5 (at best) starting pitcher hoping he might bounce back.

I also posted my Keuchel stats before your rebuttal was posted, so I'm curious how you expected me to read what you said?

8.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 02:06:33
Also

"So Upton is essentially a sunk cost at this point. He hasn't been a league average hitter since 2018 and is a liability in the outfield. So he's going to sit on the bench or be a weak-side platoon piece as one of the highest AAVs in baseball. "

So, exactly why would Arizona want him? If anything, Arizona is more likely to OFFLOAD money, not take more on. And I don't think that Andrew Vaughn suddenly makes it worth it to take on $28M of sunk cost AND give up their most valuable asset.

The more and more I look at this, the more I think it's actually pretty bad for Arizona.

I think this return WITHOUT Upton is pretty close. With Upton, the White Sox probably need to give up Cespedes and possibly Crochet as well.

9.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 04:38:53
Arizona does offload money in total. Please read.

10.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 04:44:50
And the good thing about the return for ARI is Vaughn isn’t the only asset they get back. Kath and Sanchez are good prospects.

LAA is only taking on net $6 million, for THREE guys that fit. They could do this and still theoretically go after Scherzer and Ray, or one of those and try to build a bullpen on the fly.

11.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 13:12:21
There's zero reason for the Diamondbacks to offload money for USEFUL players only to take on 28M (which is more than they shed) for dead money.

It literally makes zero sense.

And getting a 1B prospect who looked completely outmatched in his rookie season along with some high variance middling prospects probably isn't worth giving up Ketel Marte AND taking on 28M of dead money.

This isn't to say that Kath and Sanchez don't have positive outlooks, but this is Arizona selling very, very low on Ketel Marte (and the White Sox conveniently buying very, very low) .

12.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 13:14:19
Frankly, if you wanted this to look remotely fair, I'd do the following:

1. Move Upton to the White Sox.
2. Replace Wes Kath with Jared Kelley
3. Keep Keuchel on the White Sox.

The White Sox dodging 46M in salary and still getting Ketel Marte is so laughably one-sided that it's hard to take this seriously at all.

13.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 13:19:08
"LAA is only taking on net $6 million"

But they could take on that "net 6 million" with better, more useful players, could they not?

Why pay $18M for Dallas Keuchel when they could pay significantly less for a better pitcher? They could just not acquire Keuchel and instead get Scherzer (35M) and a very good pitcher for 8-14M a year and save at least 4M.

The same is true for both Ahmed and Peralta. There are far, far better options out there for the Angels. Why lock yourself into some of the worst options?

It makes no sense for them. They could just spend that money on better players.

14.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 15:37:08
"But they could take on that "net 6 million" with better, more useful players, could they not? "

No, probably not. Not a league average corner OF bat, a 5th starter and one of the best defensive SS in the game. Even with all three coming off of down years, Peralta, Keuchel and Ahmed would cost at least $15 million on the open market.

"The same is true for both Ahmed and Peralta. There are far, far better options out there for the Angels. Why lock yourself into some of the worst options? "

The beautiful thing is that they're not locking themselves out of anything. You're acquiring depth for $6 million. By filling LF and SS, they can allocate all of their resources to where they should -- the rotation and the bullpen. Then if they still want to still add a bat, they could go after Bryant or Taylor as a versatile ​bat.

Do you really think they're going to be the mix for one of the top tier SS? I don't. Who's to be had after that?

"there's zero reason for the Diamondbacks to offload money for USEFUL players only to take on 28M (which is more than they shed) for dead money. "

Math is hard:

Peralta is owed $8 million
Ahmed is owed $18 million
Marte is owed $30 million

Upton is owed $28 million

Can we agree that $56 million > $28 million? Or are we going to disagree wth that too? Even without Marte, they'd be taking on an extra $2 million to not owe anything in 2023.

"And getting a 1B prospect who looked completely outmatched in his rookie season along with some high variance middling prospects probably isn't worth giving up Ketel Marte AND taking on 28M of dead money. "

Vaughn had a 107 wRC+ through August (prior to landing on the IL with a back injury) playing a position he'd never played after a mere 245 minor league PAs. This includes the mid-June to mid-August stretch where he hit .303/ .367/ .528 with a 144 wRC+ in 200 PAs. If that's completely over matched to you, then OK I guess.

You want to argue for Kelley over Kath? Fine, but some clubs would value Kath over Kelley I think. I think another valid argument would be that LAA needs to send a better piece than Canning to ARI.

For the sake of a thought experiment, Nate, if a salary floor was part of the new CBA, would that change your opinion of this deal, particularly for Arizona?

15.) 29 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 18:23:50
"For the sake of a thought experiment, Nate, if a salary floor was part of the new CBA, would that change your opinion of this deal, particularly for Arizona? "

No, it wouldn't. Just because owners would be forced to spend a minimum amount of $$$ doesn't mean they are just going to throw it any player with two thumbs.

I could see them taking on Upton for one reason, and one only:

They "buy" a prospect or a package of prospects, but keep Ketel Marte. They then get to get good young talent, meet their salary threshold, and then find a better, more advantageous deal for Ketel Marte.

The Diamondbacks would get Andrew Vaughn for Ketel Marte, straight up, if not even more going back their way. There'd be no reason to include Upton or Keuchel (both of whom are "dead money" at this point in their careers) .

16.) 30 Oct 2021
29 Oct 2021 19:37:44
"The Diamondbacks would get Andrew Vaughn for Ketel Marte, straight up, if not even more going back their way. There'd be no reason to include Upton or Keuchel (both of whom are "dead money" at this point in their careers) . "

Taking on Upton nets Arizona value, they aren't sacrificing it. You are struggling to wrap your head around the math. They are getting a nice return for Marte alone and are cutting payroll commitments by 100% overall. They leave the deal with Bumgarner's $23 million as the only $ committed for 2023.

17.) 01 Nov 2021
01 Nov 2021 15:03:26
"Taking on Upton nets Arizona value, they aren't sacrificing it. "

Remaining money: Ahmed + Peralta = 26M; Justin Upton = 28M.

The Diamondbacks, who are looking to shed money, are taking on MORE money, and worse, more money on a player who is objectively worse than the two they are "shedding".

Ahmed + Peralta 2022 WAR = 2-3 (esitmated)
Justin Upton 2022 WAR = 0.5

So the Diamondbacks lose 2-3 wins, by dumping "one of the best defensive SS in the game" and a "league average corner OF bat" (both of whom could, according to you, get $15M on the open market) and instead, they get Justin Upton at a cost of $2M more?

This doesn't factor in the cost of a player to fill the roster spot that has to play SS in Arizona in 2022. So let's just add $4M more.

To replace the "cost cutting" of Ahmed and Peralta, the Diamondbacks add $6M in payroll.

Not to mention, the Diamondbacks can do a whole lot more than "break even" on Ketel Marte. Someone will overpay, significantly for him. The dude was literally a nearly 3-win player in less than 400 PAs and is on an insanely team-friendly deal through 2024.

You seem to think that Mike Hazen is just interested in breaking even on that trade. I promise you, he's not, and he won't have to.

18.) 01 Nov 2021
01 Nov 2021 15:11:43
A White Sox-Diamondbacks trade that would be more likely, for Marte:

White Sox get: Ketel Marte; Drew Ellis
Diamondbacks get: Andrew Vaughn; Yoelqui Cespedes, Yolbert Sanchez, Jared Kelley

That represents a pretty decent overpay, but the White Sox are literally getting an MVP-caliber 2B/ CF for $8M (the exact same amount Hahn paid Adam Eaton last year LOL) . It also allows them to keep Jose Abreu at 1B for the foreseeable future.

It allows the Diamondbacks to accelerate their rebuild with 3 prospects (including Vaughn, who technically isn't a prospect anymore) to be ready by 2023, where they'll have no financial commitments beyond Bumgarner and Ahmed, both of whom they could clear by then.

To be clear, the Diamondbacks are taking on 100% of the risk here. Not one of those prospects, including Vaughn, is a can't-miss type player. Not a single one. And because we're talking about the White Sox system here, it's obvious that this deal would be outdone by at least a dozen teams, probably closer to 20, all of whom would see Marte as an obvious upgrade over what they currently have.

So yeah, the moral of the story here is: The White Sox aren't, ever, getting Ketel Marte for the hilariously one-sided trade you proposed.

19.) 03 Nov 2021
03 Nov 2021 02:33:27
If Vaughn isn’t “can’t miss”, then exactly who is? I’d say he’s a top-5 “safe hitter” prospect. And FWIW, I wouldn’t call any prospect “can’t miss”. He was a consensus top-20 prospect for a reason.

You were also ignoring the money owed to Marte. The Diamondbacks leave this deal committed to less money than when they entered. You are still clearly confused. They also wouldn’t have Ahmed’s $10 million on the books for 2023, where, like you said, then could at least start buying some interesting players.

Even if Marte isn’t included in the calculation, you’re taking on a front-loaded sum that’s only $2 million more than you’re giving up and getting Canning (or if you don’t like him, then a pitching prospect of your liking) as compensation.

But your big addition is to add a 35+ OFer in Cespedes? In exchange for Wes Kath? Kath is probably their best hitting prospect. Your package isn’t so much different from mine and one could easily argue that mine was better.

20.) 05 Nov 2021
05 Nov 2021 13:51:23
Ketel Marte is completely underpaid. Yeah, an underpaid minority player. I can see why the White Sox would desperately want him.

And also absolutely not want the vastly overpaid minority player that is Justin Upton. They'd just rather overpay white players like Adam Eaton, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and possibly even Hendriks and Lynn.

Acting like Ketel Marte's contract is something undesirable for Arizona is hilarious and yet, completely within what I expect from you. Any team employing him is getting a 4-5 win potential player for 8M. Again, the White Sox paid that same amount to DFA Adam Eaton midway through the season. That's what kind of value we're talking about here.

"Even if Marte isn’t included in the calculation, you’re taking on a front-loaded sum that’s only $2 million more than you’re giving up and getting Canning (or if you don’t like him, then a pitching prospect of your liking) as compensation. "

You're, once again, missing the point. The issue is that if the Diamondbacks are going to sell low on Marte by also dealing out Ahmed and Peralta, then why would they also take on $28M?

Their goal is to clear any and all money, future or present. Taking on $28M now AND selling low on their most valuable trade asset does nothing but hurt them.

It continues to make less and less sense for the Diamondbacks the more you try and sell this trade.

21.) 05 Nov 2021
05 Nov 2021 14:38:32
"And also absolutely not want the vastly overpaid minority player that is Justin Upton. They'd just rather overpay white players like Adam Eaton, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and possibly even Hendriks and Lynn. "

hahaha. I can see the Jeff Passan tweet now:

"To fight racism, the White Sox are trading Lucas Giolito, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Aaron Bummer to the Angels for Justin Upton and his guaranteed $28 million. "

22.) 05 Nov 2021
05 Nov 2021 16:09:56
I can see the Bob Nightengale tweet now:

"Sources: Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen taking on a $28M bench player and some mediocre young players to sell really low on Ketel Marte. "

The thing is, even old Bobby N would be more believable than you. That's pretty sad, even by your standards.

23.) 05 Nov 2021
05 Nov 2021 17:55:40
I think it's funny that you hope for Marco Luciano's sake, Zaidi doesn't offer him life changing money through a pre-arb extension where everybody wins because he's 100% guaranteed to sign a $100 million contract after his 6 seasons of control.

This is a new level of stupid.

24.) 07 Nov 2021
07 Nov 2021 12:13:30
Why would I care one bit that the Giants get a deal on Marco Luciano (or hope for it)? I don't. I'd love to see Luciano get paid as much as he possibly can over the course of his career.

It's literally not my money and I never root for owners. So I want to see players make the most of their money. (I'll still mock it when teams overpay for talent, a la Rick Hahn. )

See, I'm not racist. I don't love cheering on dudes who legitimately take advantage of minority players. It seems you have zero qualms with this issue. But yet, QAnon, that's the squeaky wheel! Yeah, perhaps a little introspection could go a long way, Brandon.

25.) 08 Nov 2021
08 Nov 2021 11:03:20
You arguments are just patently awful.

So if both parties enter into a risky proposition, i. e. The Sox handing an 86 wRC+ hitter $25 million guaranteed to a hitter who they are confident will become worth that contract because of his raw talent, there are two possible outcomes.

1. Tim Anderson continues to hit to a 86 wRC+ or worse and is worth no where near that contract. In this case you argue good for TA for maximizing on his potential.

or

2. Anderson turns into a star and the Sox are racist for handing him life changing money at a time where he was 14% worse than that the average performer in his field.

Your argument is as dumb as they come.

"See, I'm not racist. I don't love cheering on dudes who legitimately take advantage of minority players. "

No, you just cheer for a club that hardly employs any minority players.

26.) 08 Nov 2021
08 Nov 2021 14:17:21
"No, you just cheer for a club that hardly employs any minority players. "

Minority players on current 40-Man Rosters:

White Sox: 13. Anderson, Moncada. Abreu, Grandal, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Lopez, Ruiz, Mercedes, Severino, Zavala.

Giants: 14. Wade, Flores, Estrada, Castro, Doval, Garcia, Alvarez, Jackson, Gonzalez, Nunez, Dubon, Davis, Santos, Marte.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Seriously, do you just say nonsense and pray that it's true? The Giants legitimately employ more minorities than the White Sox, and it's not just players. They have a black coach (Richardson), AAPI coaches (Correa, Uematsu), and even a female coach (Nakken) . For crying out loud, they have a Muslim man of Pakistani descent leading their front office.

This might be your most ridiculous take yet. And that's truly saying something.

The Giants very well may be one of the most diverse organizations in baseball history.

Seriously, I don't know whether to laugh at you or just feel bad for you. I think I'll find a mixture of both and settle for that. So pathetic.

27.) 13 Nov 2021
13 Nov 2021 11:55:37
Exactly, the Giants have some role players and roster filler minority players while the Sox's core was built with minority players. It really begs the question whether or not the Giants are comfortable with minority players as the face of their franchise moving forward.

It's a tough look as they search for the next Aubrey Huff in free agency, lol.

28.) 14 Nov 2021
14 Nov 2021 19:30:39
"It's a tough look as they search for the next Aubrey Huff in free agency, lol. "

Yes, the same Aubrey Huff who is essentially banned from the clubhouse, stadium, and scrubbed from all of their recent history, yes, that's who they are looking for!

But hey, you should probably hope Tony La Russa doesn't fall off the wagon. He's been known to do that, and the White Sox literally don't care the least bit!

29.) 15 Nov 2021
15 Nov 2021 13:33:27
He was banned and "scrubbed from recent history" after he stopped providing the organization with value, Nate. Open your eyes.

30.) 17 Nov 2021
17 Nov 2021 16:37:51
"He was banned and "scrubbed from recent history" after he stopped providing the organization with value"

So you agree that he was banned? And yet you tried to backdoor a pathetically stupid argument into the conversation, why?

Literally, the Giants refuse to have any further association with an awful, terrible human being like Aubrey Huff.

Meanwhile, Tony La Russa is STILL EMPLOYED BY THE WHITE SOX! And they literally hired him knowing he had DUI charges, and didn't care, in the slightest.

What your sad, feeble attempt proved was that the Giants disassociate with awful human beings and the White Sox do not.

So thanks for clearing that up/.

31.) 18 Nov 2021
18 Nov 2021 16:14:09
Again, when Huff was performing on the field and winning World Series, employing him for three years was no big deal. This shouldn't be surprising though considering who runs the team.

The Giants do not disassociate with awful human beings given that they are run by the Johnson family and Larry Baer.