29 Nov 2021 16:36:11
White Sox-Braves trade:

Braves get: Craig Kimbrel

White Sox get: Ronald Acuna, Jr.


How could the Braves ever turn down getting a top 10 reliever in the league for a guy with a busted up ACL?

Chi Sox logic.

1.) 29 Nov 2021
29 Nov 2021 18:52:57
Guys, Natedog is really struggling to cope right now. He's posting ridiculous trades and slapping my name on it, creating friends on this forum to agree with him because his takes are that bad, and his team even lost Kevin Gausman after I was correct about his market.

Let's support him in this time of need.

2.) 30 Nov 2021
30 Nov 2021 16:25:28
Funny thing is, this is more realistic than literally any trade proposal Chi Sox has ever made.

Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys.

3.) 30 Nov 2021
30 Nov 2021 17:54:37
Which trade are you alluding to, Nathan?

4.) 30 Nov 2021
30 Nov 2021 19:16:10
Jean Segura for Craig Kimbrel LMAOOOO.

5.) 01 Dec 2021
01 Dec 2021 14:24:30
Kevin Gausman for $84 million LMAOOOO. Remember, he said he wanted to return to SF. I was reliably told by you.

6.) 01 Dec 2021
01 Dec 2021 18:38:19
I mean, he said it in multiple interviews. Grant Brisbee, Alex Pavolovic, Kerry Crowley, and Andrew Baggerly ALL mentioned the comment.

He then further indicated that his feelings were hurt that the Giants weren't as hot on his trail as he wished they were.

It turns out, the Toronto Blue Jays offered more money than the Giants were, and more years (rumor mill circling that the Giants offered 4/ 90 to Gausman) .

So saying that Gausman wanted to return wasn't made up gobbledygook like we're used to seeing from you. It was a quote straight from the man himself.

7.) 01 Dec 2021
01 Dec 2021 19:12:16
Gausman's quote to The Athletic:

“To be honest, I don’t think the Giants expected me to pitch as well as I did this year, ” Gausman told The Athleitc. “So I’m not putting my eggs into one basket. I’m trying to focus on what I can control right now, which is basically nothing. But yeah, I hope they’ll call me. And honestly, if they don’t, my feelings probably will be hurt because I felt I was a part of something special. ”

His quote to MLB's Maria Guardado:

"“I've kind of hopped around the last couple of years. I felt like I made some good relationships and then had to leave. I just know what I'm getting myself into, know what to expect. I talked from day one just about how great everybody treated me and my family here. That definitely was part of it, but I’ve really enjoyed my time here so far. I really liked all my teammates. "

He mentioned, on video, in an October 3rd Tweet from @NBCSGiants that he "grew up a Giants fan. "

But yes, please continue on how I was one year off on my contract prediction.

But hey, how'd that Joey Wendle for Craig Kimbrel trade go for the White Sox?

8.) 01 Dec 2021
01 Dec 2021 19:47:34
So if you're keeping track at home, we have:

Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) .

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Wendle and Kiermaier.

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura (a trade literally mocked by a guy from MLB. com)

We have: Kevin Gausman to the White Sox.

We have: Dallas Keuchel for Jackie Bradley Jr.

And my woes were that I suggested the Giants don't offer more than a 4-year deal to Gausman.

More for the record:

"Although, 76 wins is a good current 2021 projection for Zaidi's Giants. So he may be right on track for a playoff berth in 2027."

You were only SIX SEASONS OFF, my guy. Jesus, what a take that was.

For someone with your history of being so laughably off on this kind of stuff, you sure do have a puffed up head.

But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here.

9.) 01 Dec 2021
01 Dec 2021 21:26:09
You're trashing my offseason plan because the predictions haven't hit (not meant to be predictions btw, simply the path I would've pursued), yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO.

"Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) "

This was not in my offseason plan. This was a far-fetched idea that I brought up. 3-team deals with that many players hardly ever happen.

"But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here. "

It's not that you missed on one player - all of us will predict more wrong than we do right. However, it was you believing that I was crazy for proposing Gausman playing somewhere other than SF and for offering him 5 for $120 million (he signed for 5 for $110 million for the record; a lot closer than 4 for $84 million)

It may be time to switch over to your David Stearns account full time.

10.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 00:15:13
I never once said you were "crazy. " My exact quote:

:Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on. "

I feel that's a pretty generous, healthy and contributive comment, don't you?

I also said, "It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse. "

Once again, I open the door to me being willing to be wrong.

Going along with a player's very word that he wants to return to the Giants seems like a pretty solid reason to predict he returns.

It's actually based in reality. Turns out, the interest from the Giants wasn't to Gausman's liking.

I never even remotely hinted that you were crazy. You're just looking for a win now LMAO. And I get it, with how hysterically bad your other ideas were, I'd be desperate too.

Maybe it's time you create a new account and forget the "Chi Sox" account ever existed.

11.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 00:22:33
"yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO. "

So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint?

Also, for your ideas being, by your own account, "far fetched", you sure get a bit testy when people challenge it, don't you? Even you acknowledge the truth (which is rare, but we'll take what we can get), and yet, you can't handle when others disagree. Not that I'm surprised, but it'd be nice to see *SOME* improvement over the years.

Also, your super intelligent "Kimbrel for Segura" trade just got shot in the foot by Dave Dombrowski LMAO.

12.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 03:27:21
Did he actually reference Kimbrel or are you talking about him saying they're "not necessarily looking for a closer at this point"?

I think the Phillies have a really solid team - one that could easily win a division in 2022 if they make a few improvements. They need a shortstop badly and their pen is quite obviously a glaring hole. They also lost Neris who'd pretty damn good in his own right. While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer.

Adding Kimbrel (even if it was for Segura) and let's say, Story, Rosario and a CF via trade makes them a lot more interesting.

"So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint? "

No, you missed on Gausman, Bundy, Verlander, and Neris too. They could still get Suzuki I guess, but I really think he'll be a Mariner. The Yarbrough trade is also theoretically still in play.

13.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 13:53:50
"While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer. "

Yes, the Phillies should be unhappy with a closer who had a 2.45 ERA in 25 IP with the Dodgers in 2021. What they should really be looking for is to pay 160% more than Knebel for a guy who had a 5.09 ERA in 23 IP with the White Sox!

And they should give up their best middle infielder, which is also a glaring need, to acquire him!

I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero.

I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him.

Hahn would have been wiser to buy out his option and use the savings (15M) to just acquire a 2B via free agency. And if he really wanted to keep Kimbrel, I'm pretty sure he could have had him for a lot cheaper.

But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it.

14.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.

15.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 15:34:14
"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

Lol, going from "absolutely not"

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something"

to "well maybe"!

Also, let me know when we're going to stop grading relievers with ERA over 25 inning samples. Knebel, who has thrown 39 innings over the last 3 seasons, just got $10 million. But Kimbrel's lack of recent consistent track record kills his trade value? GTFOH. Kimbrel is a better pitcher and was never playing 2022 for much cheaper than $15 million.

Second base is not a glaring need for Philly, it's short. They have three guys that can play second for most of 2022.

"I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero. "

His 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021. Please though, tell me more about the reliability of ERA, especially over tiny samples.

16.) 02 Dec 2021
02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!

17.) 03 Dec 2021
03 Dec 2021 15:20:47
"Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. "

"a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons"

Bro, pick a side. Either small samples matter or they don't. If you're going to say that Kimbrel's last three months are detrimental to his outlook to the point where he is a useless baseball player, then that's just recency bias.

18.) 13 Dec 2021
13 Dec 2021 13:43:58
The funny thing is: I haven't even brought up "small sample sizes" for Craig Kimbrel, or "recency bias". I brought up his LAST THREE EFFING SEASONS to you, and you're hellbent on focusing on what he did for 4 months with the Cubs. You know what we call that? Oh yeah, small sample size!

To quote you: "Bro, pick a side. "

Let's open up the past three seasons for Kimbrel, just once more for you:

2019: Absolutely terrible.
2020: Absolutely terrible.
2021 with Cubs (4 months) : Incredible.
2021 with White Sox (3 months) : Absolutely terrible.

Trust me, the last three months of 2021 fit the larger sampling WAYYYYY more than the first four.

The White Sox still paid a hefty price for Kimbrel's first half of 2021, because teams do this ALL THE TIME. They pay for small, recent samples.

You're trying to convince everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still an elite reliever ON SMALL SAMPLES all the while trying to downplay small samples.

So to recap:

If you believe that teams are looking at larger, recent samples: Craig Kimbrel is terrible.

If you believe that teams are looking at recent, small samples: Craig Kimbrel is absolutely terrible.

Craig Kimbrel used to be good in the same way Albert Pujols used to be really good. Now, they are exactly the same: washed up has-beens who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster.

The only difference is that the Dodgers simply signed Pujols to a league-minimum deal. The White Sox gave up Heuer and Madrigal for Kimbrel AND picked up his $16M option.

But here you are, thinking the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers! LOLOLOLOL.

19.) 13 Dec 2021
13 Dec 2021 22:25:46
Again, his 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021.

That K-BB% was better than every single Giants reliver in the 2nd half sans Littel. Apparently every single other Giants reliever that pitched at least 20 innings was "absolutely terrible" through the second half of 2021.

Kimbrel also pitched more innings with the Cubs in 2021 than he did in 2019 and 2020 combined. You conveniently left that detail out. Nothing new, however.

"But, but, but, HIS ERA! ", screamed the boomer stuck in 1995. His .295 BABIP was 32 points higher than his career average and his 19.5% HR/ FB was more than 8% higher than his career average.

Your logic is literally the epitome of recency bias. You equating Kimbrel's value to Albert Pujols shows that you really don't know what you're talking about. Quite the downfall for know-it-all Nate this offseason. Tremendously tough scene.

20.) 15 Dec 2021
15 Dec 2021 13:32:07
And Kimbrel had a .203 BABIP in the first half, 58 points lower than his career average, but we're supposed to automatically assume that this kind of deviance is acceptable, but a 38 point deviance from his career BABIP, which falls in line with his most recent 3-year average is not?

Or how about his HR/ FB%?

Hey Siri, what was Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021? "Here's your answer: Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021 was 19.1%. "

Hey, 19.2% seems strangely REALLLLLLYYYYY close to his average over the last three seasons, does it not?

But yeah, the 3.8% (a rate SIX TIMES lower than his 3-year average) is much, much more reliable! I mean, expecting us to take at wholesale value the really solid production that took place over 4 months, and not the really crappy performance that took place for 2.5 seasons isn't recency bias or anything?

No way! Clearly Craig Kimbrel is the pitcher we saw with the Cubs in 2021, not the Craig Kimbrel we saw with the Cubs in 2019, 2020, or with the White Sox in 2021. No way! What an aberration!

21.) 15 Dec 2021
15 Dec 2021 21:07:54
Some other "elite pitchers" from the 90th percentile of K-BB%:

Hoby Milner, Scott Effross, Jason Adam.

And to think: the Cubs let Jason Adam walk, and the Brewers aren't even using Hoby Milner pitch in the majors.

Man, if only they knew that their K-BB ratios suddenly rendered their ERAs completely moot!

22.) 16 Dec 2021
16 Dec 2021 20:26:53
"Guys, we know a much to high percent of everything Kimbrel pitches ends up in Gary, Indiana, but have you seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio? "

23.) 18 Dec 2021
18 Dec 2021 15:50:56
We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important. What do you think is more sticky, K-BB% or ERA. (hint: It is 1000% the former) . If ERA is the first stat you reference to judge whether a pitcher has been successful or not, then I need to welcome you to the 21st century my man. It has quite literally zero predictive power in projecting the next season's ERA. This has been proven countless times.

Jason Adam had a .429 BABIP, Milner at .393, and Elfross was simply really good in his 14.2 innings despite be a no-namer. You pointing out these guys doesn't prove what you think it does, lol. These are solid pitchers.

You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. He literally threw more innings in 1 half of 2021 than in 2019 AND 2020 COMBINED! One can't be a small sample and the others a massive signal that he's washed. Referencing those 35 innings from 2019-2020 as "TWO WHOLE SEASONS" simply makes no sense. With that logic, his dominant 36 innings with the Cubs in 2021 would be just as good of a signal that he's an elite closer.

I know that you had a rude awakening to some advanced, yet relatively basic pitching stats (see: xFIP), so I tried to dumb it down even more to something as simple strikeouts vs. walks (i. e. the outcomes that any given pitcher has the most control of), and yet it appears that this kind of stuff is still pretty far over your head.

Good news for you though is that there's still a healthy subset of boomers who thing that ERA for pitcher evaluation still matters!

24.) 19 Dec 2021
19 Dec 2021 12:34:15
"We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important"

Good grief, no, we're not. We're to the point where you're PRETENDING that a pitcher with a *checks notes* 5.09 ERA is suddenly "elite" because of a K-BB%. You're grasping at straws and trying to pretend that teams only care about K-BB% and that we should just not address ANY of the other concerning statistics?

"You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. "

I literally used small samples, then you said I couldn't do that. So I went to a larger sampling, then you said I couldn't do that either. But now, you're okay with using *some* small samples, but not others.

So when will you just come right out and tell everyone that we're not allowed to address any statistics that are negative toward the Chicago White Sox?

That's essentially where we are in this discussion. You dodge any statistic that isn't favorable and try to pretend that it's unimportant, despite you having very clearly used ERA in the past to build up your own arguments. Did you also learn from your own ineptitudes or are you continuing to blow smoke?

If we're both being honest, we know it's the latter.

Here's the FACTS:

Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2019.
Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2020.

Then, he had a woefully unsustainable first half of 2021, with a 3.8 HR/ FB% and a .203 BABIP, both major deviations from his career numbers, but also his most recent 3-season sample.

Then, the White Sox paid a COMICAL return for Craig Kimbrel, one that was mocked by people everywhere, myself included. You continued to act like I was stupid and that Kimbrel would be this elite pitcher with the White Sox and continue his dominance.

So, he goes to the White Sox, and what does he do? He performs EXACTLY how he did in 2019 and 2020.

And yet, he's elite. He's not only elite by his Cubs small sampling. He's elite by his WHITE SOX SMALL SAMPLING.

Again, just acknowledge the truth: you don't like anyone telling you that your precious White Sox and your Savior, Rick Hahn, aren't as good as you thought.

But yes, every team should be emulating picking up aging relievers coming off horrible half-seasons and giving them $16M. I'm sure this will work out really well.

25.) 19 Dec 2021
19 Dec 2021 12:35:22
Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022.

Feel free to return to this in October 2022.

26.) 20 Dec 2021
20 Dec 2021 14:17:33
No, you're taking your own comments out of context. You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense.

Kimbrel's 2021 in total ended up being a 2.2 fWAR season, good for 6th among relievers. If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion. He put up a replacement level second half (where his usage was completely mis-managed by La Russa) after an all-star first half to finish with a top-10 RP season. I don't think it's crazy to say that a guy coming off a season in which he struck out 42.6% of batters faced and only walked 9.8% isn't completely washed. You can't exactly fluke your way into that over 60 IP.

Maybe the Giants should trade for Craig. He'd instantly be their best RP. In fact, the White Sox have literally 5 arms in their bullpen that would be the Giants best RP in an instant, LOL.

"Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022."

I will gladly eat crow if this happens.

27.) 20 Dec 2021
20 Dec 2021 16:14:21
"You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense. "

Shot.

"If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion"

Chaser.

28.) 20 Dec 2021
20 Dec 2021 16:38:36
And of course, if Craig Kimbrel wasn't hilariously bad with the White Sox in 2021, and kept even a little bit within his first half numbers, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

But that awful stint with the White Sox happened. And as I've been pointing out for a while now, it fell more in line with his 2019 and 2020 numbers than the first half did.

Statistically, it's far more likely that what Craig Kimbrel did in the second half is the more likely projection going forward and that his first half was a total aberration and is largely irrelevant as we project going forward.

I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. If lightning can strike in the same place twice, he's got a chance, and it's likely why his ZiPS projections are favorable (that and the 2021 Cubs numbers will skew the algorithm) .

But if this were any other pitcher on any other team, you'd be agreeing: Craig Kimbrel is most likely the pitcher he was in the second-half going forward.

And I think most teams will see that the same way.

And for the record, there's a small chance that Craig Kimbrel *could* be the Giants best reliever should they acquire him. But that's mostly because Farhan actually takes garbage players and makes them really good players.

Craig Kimbrel is, by definition, a garbage baseball player. So maybe he can do what Rick Hahn could not: make Craig Kimbrel decent.

Here's a trade:

Giants get: Kimbrel, Cespedes
White Sox get: Dilan Rosario.

The White Sox will have to attach a pretty intriguing prospect just to clear the salary. And like that, Dilan Rosario would be the best 2B option on the White Sox, and their best prospect.

29.) 20 Dec 2021
20 Dec 2021 23:01:35
Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect.

"I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. "

Don't try and walk back your "Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022" claim now, Nate. Very sly of you to cover all of your bases tho. That Steamer projection making you a little nervous?

So, if I understand correctly, Kimbrel could bounce back to be a productive reliever (maybe even a high end one like Steamer projects), but only he happens to get traded to SF, which you are now realizing may not be such a crazy idea after all.

As a side note, we also know that MLB not only banned sticky stuff mid-season, but they also literally changed the baseballs. It's not *the* reason for Kimbrel's drop off, but it could have certainly played a role.

30.) 04 Apr 2022
04 Apr 2022 15:09:34
"Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect. "

Darin Ruf. Check.
Mike Yastrzemski. Check.
LaMonte Wade Jr. Check.
Donovan Solano. Check.
Thairo Estrada. Check.
Tyler Rogers. Check.
Zack Littell. Check.
Kevin Gausman. Check.
Drew Smyly. Check.
Dominic Leone. Check.

If you don't think that Zaidi could have found a way to fix Craig Kimbrel's issues, then you're being ridiculous. There's a reason pitchers are nearly busting down doors trying to play in San Francisco.