25 Nov 2022 15:56:06
Free Agent Predictions (sorted by position)

CATCHERS
Willson Contreras- Tigers, 5/100
Omar Narvaez- Red Sox, 2/15
Gary Sanchez- Cardinals, 2/16
Christian Vazquez- Giants, 2/14

FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu- Padres, 2/36
Josh Bell- Astros, 4/48
Brandon Belt- Cubs, 1/10
Trey Mancini- Guardians, 1/8

SECOND BASE
Adam Frazier- Nationals, 1/5
Jean Segura- Mariners, 1/10.5

SHORTSTOPS
Elvis Andrus- Orioles, 1/5.5
Xander Bogaerts- Phillies 7/196
Carlos Correa- Giants, 8/260
Jose Iglesias- Cubs, 1/4
Dansby Swanson- Orioles, 7/175
Trea Turner- Dodgers, 5/185

THIRD BASE
Brian Anderson- Giants, 1/6
Jeimer Candelario- Brewers, 1/6
Justin Turner- Dodgers, 1/10

LEFT FIELD
Andrew Benintendi- Rockies, 3/36
Michael Brantley- Marlins, 2/25
Joey Gallo- Dodgers, 1/12.5
David Peralta- Pirates, 1/5
Jurickson Profar- Astros, 2/20

CENTER FIELD
Cody Bellinger- Tigers, 1/13.5
Kevin Kiermaier- White Sox, 1/10
Brandon Nimmo- Rangers, 6/150

RIGHT FIELD
Mitch Haniger- Giants, 2/32
Aaron Judge- Yankees, 8/340
Wil Myers- Orioles, 1/9
AJ Pollock- Red Sox, 2/22
Matasaka Yoshida- Padres, 3/27

DESIGNATED HITTER
J.D. Martinez- Cardinals, 1/12

STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Bassitt- Mets, 3/51
Jacob deGrom- Rangers, 3/117
Zach Eflin- Orioles, 2/30
Nathan Eovaldi- Red Sox, 3/39
Andrew Heaney- Rays, 2/20
Sean Manaea- Cubs, 1/10
Jose Quintana- White Sox, 2/26
Carlos Rodon- Tigers, 5/130
Kodai Senga- Giants, 4/44
Noah Syndergaard- Padres, 2/30
Jameson Taillon- Blue Jays, 3/30
Justin Verlander- Astros, 2/80
Taijuan Walker- Dodgers, 3/40

RELIEF PITCHERS
Kenley Jansen- Giants, 1/14
Craig Kimbrel- Angels, 1/8
Aroldis Chapman- Diamondbacks, 1/7.5
Brad Hand- Mets, 2/15
Taylor Rogers, Cubs, 1/6.5
Will Smith, Mariners- 2/15

1.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 13:13:47
Chi Sox doesn't like that I have Craig Kimbrel making $8M. He thinks it somehow means that I'm inconsistent on my view of Kimbrel.

This is not the case. Rather, it reveals that I see teams like the Angels having a willingness to overpay for mediocre relievers. Bad teams spend money in bad ways.

Then again, no team would ever spend $8M on a mediocre pitcher would they? Like, no one is giving that money to say, Mike Clevinger, right?

2.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 16:41:03
Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right?

Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck!

3.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 16:42:50
Notice how Nate is sly to slowly walk back his take that Kimbrel is quote - "complete garbage". Now he's just "mediocre". In a couple months he'll be "solid", or something like that.

4.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 16:51:28
Nit-picky here, but if Elvis Andrus is willing to take $5.5 million to play second base, he'll 1000% be back with the White Sox. He'll want to play short somewhere.

Plus this leaves no spot for either Mateo or Henderson on that infield. They probably only add 1 more via free agency/ trade.

5.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 17:04:12
He had a 5.04 FIP as a starter in 2022, Hubert. That was the 8th worst FIP among all MLB starters with 100 IP or more.

"Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck! "

Clevinger hasn't had a sub-4 FIP season since 2019.

"Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right? "

He's never spent $8M on a pitcher who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in a given season, no.

If Rick Hahn wanted a guy with a FIP higher than 5, he could have signed Erick Fedde for like a million dollars. He spent 8x as much money.

6.) 28 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 17:29:29
Scratch that, it's a 12M guarantee, not 8M. That's a comical overpay.

7.) 29 Nov 2022
28 Nov 2022 21:53:52
Yeah because Fedde and Clevinger have the same upsides. Of course, you're really good at this!

8.) 29 Nov 2022
29 Nov 2022 02:03:18
The 2020 Sporting News Executive of the Year RUNNER UP Rick Hahn just gave $12M to a pitcher who was equal to Erick Fedde, or lesser than at worst.

In the words of Elon Musk: Let that sink in.

Then again, he's the same guy who gave Dallas Keuchel $55M, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

9.) 29 Nov 2022
29 Nov 2022 04:39:09
Would you like to make another guarantee like you did for Kimbrel? "Clevinger will have a FIP above x in 2023, feel free to return to this in October. "

FWIW, I would have liked the move a lot more at $8 million than $12 million, but Katz must think he can revive some of the 2017-2020 production (only 156 innings ago) . Katz has earned that opportunity with solid progress with a lot of guys over the last 2 seasons. Clev's xRV numbers pretty clearly show that his stuff and command were better than the 2022 results showed. We'll see - he's their 5th starter, and I like this kind of upside in that slot.

10.) 29 Nov 2022
29 Nov 2022 13:45:31
I would bet good money Clevinger will have a FIP north of 4. He's simply not a $12M pitcher and I will LOL so hard when he is both not very good AND becomes a reason why the clubhouse falls apart, as he did in San Diego.

There were countless pitchers that both had better numbers and likely better outlooks for 2023 than Clevinger, none of whom would cost $12M in 2023.

Unless Reinsdorf is suddenly willing to spend like crazy (he won't), this was a severe waste of the teams' resources.

Here's a bet I'm even more willing to make: Davis Martin will have a better season, including FIP that is a full run higher than Clevinger's, and I don't particularly believe Martin is good.

11.) 30 Nov 2022
30 Nov 2022 13:07:30
Jesus, that should say a full run LOWER. Martin's FIP will be a full run lower. Clevinger's will be the higher FIP.