09 Jan 2019 14:12:12
White Sox & Diamondbacks

White Sox Get:

Zack Greinke RHP (3 years, $95.5 million)
$25 million
David Peralta OF (2 years, Arb)

D-Backs Get:

Blake Rutherford OF (#77 MLB)
Micker Adolfo OF
Lincoln Henzman RHP

This trade would turn out to be similar to the Mets/Mariners trade:

Mets Got:

Robinson Cano 2B/1B (5 years, $120 million)
$20 Million
Edwin Diaz (4 years, Pre-Arb/Arb)

Mariners Got:

Jay Bruce OF/1B (2 years, $26 million)
Anthony Swarzak RHP (1 year, $8 million)
Jarred Kelenic OF (#62 MLB)
Justin Dunn RHP (#89 MLB)
Gerson Bautista RHP

The Mets essentially took on $66 million after the exchange. The price for them doing so was a dominant 3.5 win closer in Diaz who they'll control through the 2022 season.

In my deal, the White Sox are taking on $71.5 million of Greinke's remaining contract plus the $7.7 million that Peralta projects to get in arbitration, bringing the total to $79.2 million. Peralta is coming off of a 3.8 win season in Arizona.

So, while the D-Backs don't quite get the same prospect quality as the Mariners did, they are shedding $13 million more and Peralta is only controlled for 2 years of surplus value while the Mets get Diaz for 4 years of surplus value.

The White Sox take advantage of their payroll flexibility and take a huge contract off the books for Arizona while also getting an OFer that mashes.

Sign Machado and the lineup on April 15th could look like:

Jay CF
Peralta RF
Machado 3B
Abreu DH
Jimenez LF
Alonso 1B
Anderson SS
Castillo C
Moncada 2B


1.) 09 Jan 2019
09 Jan 2019 14:36:22
Or the Diamondbacks could shop Peralta separately and get a better return.

2.) 09 Jan 2019
09 Jan 2019 15:54:23
Right, just like the Mariners could have for Diaz.

3.) 09 Jan 2019
09 Jan 2019 22:44:10
Hazen is also far less aggressive and more calculated than DiPoto and Van Wagenen. (And objectively better at his job.)

Peralta was nothing short of incredible last season, and he actually underperformed in many areas, based on career numbers. Even for only two years, it's going to take a haul, and Arizona isn't benefitted by pairing him to a bad contract.

4.) 10 Jan 2019
10 Jan 2019 00:31:04
Peralta had a career year, but where did he underperform? Slightly in the OF? He actually was much better than his career numbers in virtually every area (though, he’s always got on base) . Streamer doesn’t have him as a top 30 OFer next year. He’s a really good player, but let’s not get crazy. He’s not going to be an almost 4-win player again next year. I guess my thought of a “haul” might differ from yours.

I also think that shedding $90MM+ for a team going nowhere would benefit the team tremendously, actually. DiPoto has tried to avoid rebuilding since he was hired and Van Wagonen has been an exec for 5 minutes if we want to talk about GM MOs.

Getting someone to take a contract like Greinke or Cano takes a serious player (ie. a top 3 closer in the game who is 24 and has 4 years of control) . I wouldn’t be shocked for Arizona to be motivated to move that money if possible.

5.) 10 Jan 2019
10 Jan 2019 05:31:36
Oh, now you're in on the Fangraphs projections? Just last year, they were worthless (a la Avisail Garcia) and you *tried* to ridicule me for using them (by the way, I was pretty much exactly right, as were the projections. Just to remind you) .

This site would be so, so much better when people stop making arguments that are only convenient to their team/ players.

Peralta isn't going to require a guy like Jimenez, but the can get someone much better than Rutherford for him. So why limit the return for Peralta just to shed Greinke? The Diamondbacks don't have to bury a good player with Greinke, for what it's worth.

6.) 10 Jan 2019
10 Jan 2019 14:53:29
Yes, we truly have come full circle. You had the Giants picking Avi up at well. I loved it. One way to ensure that he never reaches his power potential is to put him in San Fran, haha. The projections were not worthless, I never said that, just don’t take them as religion. I'll admit that I was, in retrospect, overly bullish on Garcia, but you said that there was “nothing to suggest more homers” and here we sit with Garcia coming off an almost 30 point ISO increase and a career high in homers (playing an injury-plagued 93 games) . You were just set that there was no way that could happen.

And you are still missing the point. Obviously the D-Backs could get more for Peralta, I’m not saying their only option is to pair him with Greinke. Think of what Seattle could have gotten for Diaz alone! You want to talk about a “haul”. Moving serious money off a team that has severe budget restrictions and isn’t going to compete for the next couple seasons is important, but maybe that’s just me. That Greinke deal has hampered them since they signed it. W/ o it, they probably would have extended Goldy and may also have JD Martinez too.

We are on a site here talking trades that almost never come to fruition, but when I come up with one and lay out how it’s REALLY similar to one that ACTUALLY HAPPENED in the league (mine is less extreme), the principle of my trade is ignored. I never said Rutherford was enough for Peralta alone, just like Kelenic as a headliner wouldn’t have been good enough for Diaz alone either.

7.) 11 Jan 2019
10 Jan 2019 23:39:46
"We are on a site here talking trades that almost never come to fruition, but when I come up with one and lay out how it’s REALLY similar to one that ACTUALLY HAPPENED in the league"

Except yours isn't. It's still super light.

Consider the evidence:

Over the past two seasons, Greinke + Peralta have combined for 14 wins. Cano + Diaz? 10.6 This doesn't take into consideration the high variance rates of relievers and aging players coming off PED suspensions.

The Mets gave up significantly more for a much worse package. (I'm not interested in your blind homerism of White Sox prospects, the Mets deal was exponentially better) . I think Adolfo is a good start, but the Sox need to replace Rutherford with an actual good one.

8.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 03:33:45
"The Mets gave up significantly more for a much worse package. "

Hopefully you are coherent enough to understand that Diaz alone is much more valuable than Peralta. Like it's not close. Diaz and Treinen are in a category of their own when it comes to closers and the Mets are going to pay Diaz less than a million this year. Cano and Greinke are similar, but Cano is owed $25 million more total. Thus, Seattle would have to attach a better player in order to move Cano rather than Greinke.

Stop acting like Rutherford, Adolfo and Henzman is light years away from Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista. Rutherford might literally be Kelenic's closest comparable and he could 100% headline this deal, you just don't like him. You're pulling hairs like you usually do with me.

You're also forgetting that the Ms had to take back the bad contracts of Bruce and Swarzak in addition to $20 million being sent back to NY. So that also in effect requires a better return of prospects than what I have going to Arizona.

9.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 06:51:34
I'm not willing to split hairs on prospects. It's silly and you think every White Sox prospect is the next Babe Ruth. But just know, there's a lot of folks out there who aren't big on Rutherford. I don't know if Hazen is one of them, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if he's not.

As far as value is concerned, we'll have to agree to disagree. Relief pitching is extremely volatile and leads to a lot of high variance. Brett Cecil went from 1.1 WAR to -0.6 in one season. I could list tons of other examples.

As for Peralta, his numbers aren't obscene. There's nothing that stands out as an obvious regression point. And it's not that easy to find a 30 HR guy with .290/ .345 lines, and not based entirely on BABIP. That's extremely difficult to find. You can find good relief pitching all around the game.

Also, Greinke and Cano are not similar. Maybe contract-wise, but decades worth of data would suggest Greinke is a far more valuable asset at his age. He's not playing a super athletic position and he's not coming off of a PED suspension.

In fact, I'd be comfortable putting Greinke's trade closer to Verlander's than Cano's. Similar age (34 vs. 35), similar contract situation (84M compared to 90M) . Similar production levels (9.1 WAR in 2 seasons vs. 8.6). Verlander, alone, cost the Astros a very good pitching prospect in Franklin Perez. He's arguably better than anyone that went in the real trade or yours.

10.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 06:54:07
And for what it's worth, comparing Greinke/ Peralta to Cano/ Diaz because of contract similarities is like comparing a Ferrari to a Geo Metro because they both have doors.

If you don't agree on value, that's fine, but as I said, I can give you several decades worth of data that shows the volatility of relievers. I'd personally take the position player giving me 3-5 at bats a night over the guy giving me 4 innings a week. That's just me, though.

11.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 15:26:15
If we are talking trade value taking scarcity it consideration, I don't think you can say Peralta is more valuable. If I can show you 30 better OFs (some of which I could currently sign without trading anything) while struggling to find 2 better closers, you're going to be hard presssed to convince me. Then consider that you would pay Diaz 6 figures in 2019, and it's even more compelling.

You don't like my comparsion, but you compare the potential drop off of Edwin Diaz to Brett freakin' Cecil. Really? Talk about comparing a Ferrari to a Geo Metro. As long as Diaz has 98-101 in his back pocket with that slider, I don't forecast much regression. He has already shown us 2 seasons of more 15 K/ 9 and xFIPs below 2.

"It's silly and you think every White Sox prospect is the next Babe Ruth. But just know, there's a lot of folks out there who aren't big on Rutherford. "

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know the drill. I'm a homer and that gives me no credibility. But really, I'm sure DiPoto and Seattle will be pretty darn happy if Kelenic gets to high-A as a 20 year old and hits to a .357 wOBA and a 120 wRC+ - just saying.

And finally, Perez, Rutherford, Kelenic - All pretty similar in terms of value. You're now disagreeing just to do it. You can say Perez is slighly better, but then you just showed us that Verlander is better than Greinke so?

12.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 18:45:27
I wasn’t comparing Diaz to Cecil. Please stop being obtuse. I’m using Cecil as just one of the hundreds of cases that show the volatility in reief pitchers. A 3.5 WAR out of a RP has only happened 7 times since 2000. It’s incredibly unlikely that Diaz repeats that, based on historic data.

Even the most generous projection has Diaz at 2.1 WAR. Even at a +/ - 0.5 WAR, his range is 1.6 to 2.6. If he slips to that bottom number (Steamer has him at 1.4) he’s among a couple dozen other relievers with similar value.

The fact that guys lile Diaz have so much variance in their potential outcomes, in my opinion, is a huge red flag. Diaz has to remain at almost historic numbers to hold the value he has. Any look at historical data shows how ludicrous such a suggest would be. In all rights, the Mets paid for what Diaz did, and not what any reasonable projection would suggest.

13.) 11 Jan 2019
11 Jan 2019 18:52:49
Also, of all people, White Sox fans should know that one trade doesn’t set the value for all future trades.

If they did, teams would trade top 10 prospects for James Shields all the time.