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thestatbook's rumours posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's rumours posts

 

23 Oct 2017 01:19:52
This one's for you, Chi Sox.

Giants off-season plans:

Acquire Billy Hamilton for Chris Shaw, Hunter Strickland, Steven Duggar

Hamilton's speed and fielding are elite, which is why he gets a top 100 guy, and a controllable closer, and a wild card prospect. But that OBP isn't doing him any favors. This could be light, but Shaw's power would be monstrous in Cincinnati. And the two teams have made a couple of fairly big trades in the past few years.

Sign Mike Moustakas 5 yr, $80MM

Re-sign Nick Hundley, 1 yr, $2MM

Sign Cameron Maybin, 1 yr, $8 MM

Lineup
CF- Hamilton
1B- Belt
C- Posey
3B- Moustakas
SS- Crawford
RF- Pence
LF- Span
2B- Panik

Bench
C- Hundley
2B- Tomlinson
3B- Sandoval
LF- Maybin
CF- Hernandez

Rotation:
Bumgarner
Cueto
Samardzija
Moore
Stratton (Beede could take this spot mid-year if Stratton fails)

Bullpen
CL- Melancon
SU- Dyson
SU- Smith
RP- Gearing
RP- Law
RP- Crick
RP- Blach.

thestatbook

1.) 23 Oct 2017 02:32:45
So OBP is bad, but let's put him at the top of a lineup trying to contend? Also in a bullpen that was pretty disappointing in 2017, why do they trade one of their most reliable RH arms?


2.) 23 Oct 2017 04:53:05
Also, Shaw is a 1B by pretty much all accounts. His metrics are bad in LF. I heard the Reds have 1B occupied by a decent player.


3.) 23 Oct 2017 05:26:46
You’re right. They never traded for a 3B with zero experience in the OF and turn him into an OF. That’s what they did with Duvall. Cincinnati isn’t very concerned with defense at the corners.

And if it makes you feel better, it can be Arroyo, or Bryan Reynolds. It really doesn’t matter. Strickland is likely gone in a trade. Bochy is not a fan of him or his attitude and he’s only getting more expensive. They’d probably just replace him via FA.

And Bochy would use Hamilton at the top of the order. I’ve watched him use speedy players at the top all the way back when he managed the Padres. Hamilton bats at the top in Cincy. He would in SF too, with Bochy’s mindset.


4.) 23 Oct 2017 15:29:47
The difference, of course, being that Duvall is a pretty good OF considering his size and mobility (-1.4 Def) . Shaw has been really bad in the OF when put there.

But if you are in the Reds FO and are certain that they don't care about OF defense, then hey, you one-upped me there.

Strickland is getting expensive, but what do you think a hard-throwing RH reliever with around a 2.00 ERA is going to net in the open market? Don't know a ton about Strickland and Bochy's relationship and if Bochy's dissent for him is strong enough to warrant a trade.

Last time I checked, Speed means absolutely zero when you can't get on base, in terms of your offensive game. No manager of a contending team is dumb enough to put a sub-.300 OBP guy in the leadoff spot. Span gets on base a ton more and is still an above avg. runner.

Wait, are you making a blind prediction that Hamilton gets on base more this year? Not allowed.


5.) 23 Oct 2017 20:23:27
Where did I predict he gets on base more? I simply said Bochy would use him at the top of the order. As he’s done since he’s ever been a manager: speed at the top.

And if that’s your gripe and you want to live in fantasy land, switch him and Span. Giants are more interested in defensive OF, and they might feel they can help him raise his OBP (I have no idea if it’s possible) .


6.) 23 Oct 2017 22:04:22
No, Bochy doesn't "just put speed at the top. " He puts guys that get on base at the top. Like pretty much every manager.

I can break it down year by year for you if you want, but he hasn't ever consistently leadoff a guy with an OBP less than .330. Roberts, Winn, Pagan, Aoki, Span. All of those guys had at least above average speed, but the point being that they got on base!

To insinuate that Bochy would put Hamilton at the top of the order simply bc he is The Flash is just plain idiotic. No one does that.


7.) 24 Oct 2017 00:26:53
I've literally listened to Bruce Bochy in interviews cite that he likes certain guys at the top of the lineup because they have speed. Multiple times. He said it during Fan Fest when they introduced Denard Span. He's said it in interviews, again, multiple times. He likes speedy players and would likely slot Hamilton in the lead-off spot.

And again, if it makes you feel better, move him to 7th, move Span to #1. It shows exactly how insecure you are that you insist on nit-picking where I slot Billy Hamilton into the lineup.

Move him to the #4 hitter. I really don't care. He's an elite defender and very likely a guy the Giants will try hard to trade for. They want OF defense, and trading for one of the best (probably) available defenders would be a brilliant move for the Giants. It doesn't matter where they hit him, but I'd guess, based on a lifetime of watching Bruce Bochy manage, they'll hit him leadoff.


8.) 24 Oct 2017 01:15:17
"To insinuate that Bochy would put Hamilton at the top of the order simply bc he is The Flash is just plain idiotic. No one does that. "

Bryan Price did it for a whole season. The Royals did it with Whit Merrifield, who batted .274 in 500+ as a leadoff guy. The White Sox had a OBP of .300 from their lead-off guys. The forward-thinking Brewers were only at .320 from that spot. The Blue Jays used Bautista and Pillar in the leadoff spot for 85% of the season and got a .305 OBP (if you're using Bautista, it's clear they weren't considering speed at the top) . I'm not justifying the use, nor am I disagreeing: teams SHOULD look for high OBP guys at the #1 spot.

But insinuating Bruce Bochy doesn't do it just because it's not a wise strategy is false. Bochy's most critical flaw is his old-school management tactics. He's leaned toward his speedy guys his entire management career. It just so happens his speedsters also got on base.

If he had Hamilton, he'd love nothing more than to use him in front of Posey and Belt. No point in getting Hamilton to 2nd or 3rd on steals if he's going to do it in front of the #8 and 9 slots.

The other option I could see him doing is one he's done before: use Hamilton as the #9 hitter, thus creating a second lead-off. This way he's not wasting speed to watch the pitcher strike out with his guy at 2nd.

If you watch Bochy long enough, you know exactly what he'll do. I'm telling you, he'll use Hamilton at the top of the lineup.


9.) 25 Oct 2017 00:36:05
arroyo is the 3b of the future

giants ain't giving his spot away

i could see bring back nunez or something.


10.) 25 Oct 2017 03:37:45
You know what's idiotic: telling a guy who's been watching the Giants consistently for over a decade and a half that you know more about how their manager operates than he does.

Genuine question: how many Giants games do you watch a year? I watch over 100 games a year. While that doesn't automatically make me an "expert", I believe it helps me when it comes to understanding what decisions a manager is likely to make. I can pretty well gather who they'll start, what spot in the lineup they'll bat, and who comes out of the bullpen. Bochy is predictable when you watch him a ton.

So please, unless you actually understand how Bochy manages and what decisions he is prone to make, just stop. You clearly don't know what you're talking about and continue to make a fool of yourself.


11.) 25 Oct 2017 05:14:42
But the thing is, Bochy hasn't just put fast guys at the top. He always has really good OBP guys there, like any manager that isn't trying to develop a future lineup, but win games in the present. Maybe you were watching the Giants that play in Japan? You don't have to watch the games to look at the box scores.

If they got Hamilton, he would bat 7th or 8th on opening day, Span would lead off like he successfully did in 2017, and it would remain that way until either A. Hamilton gets on base a lot more or B. Span can no longer get on base at his career pace. C'mon man, this is simple, very simple baseball stuff.


12.) 25 Oct 2017 06:04:15
What on earth are you talking about? He's batted almost exclusively fast guys at the top of his lineups. Leaders during his tenure as a Giants manager: Pagan, Span, Torres, Blanco, Rowand, Fred Lewis, Nori Aoki, Randy Winn, Velez. All but one of them had what would be considered "Excellent" speed rating per Fangraphs (Rowand) . Not all of them had high OBP (Rowand, Torres, Span, and Velez all had .330 OBP, which is average, or worse in the leadoff spot) .

And again, this is coming from a guy who's watched Bochy manage well over 1000 games for the Giants. I've heard hundreds of interviews. This is what Bochy does: he uses speed at the top of his lineups. But please, tell me more how you know more about the Giants than someone who's watched over 1000 games in the past decade (this doesn't include pre-Bruce Bochy Giants) .

It was kind of adorable to watch you make a fool of yourself, now it's just annoying. You literally have zero clue what you're talking about. You're out of your depth, and you need to go do something. Try learning about milk pasteurization or something (chances are, you think you're an expert at it already) .


13.) 25 Oct 2017 18:20:30
Yeah you can have the Bochy argument. Starting to think he's like your uncle or something since you know exactly how he thinks.

As a Giants fan, good luck to you if Billy Hamilton is your leadoff hitter in 2018. Nothing like Posey consistently coming up with 2 out, nobody on I guess. Hamilton will look really fast sprinting out his ground outs, though. Really entertaining! It's not like the Giants didn't just lose 100 games anyway.


14.) 27 Oct 2017 08:04:19
“Sprinting out those ground outs”

Or Hamilton could work on his swing and launch angle and hit 30 HR next year? According to you, what’s stopping him?


15.) 03 Nov 2017 00:12:16
His size, the type of player he is, lack of even marginal power, etc. He would be adding 25 HRs, not 10.


 

 

01 Jul 2017 12:24:42
Some trade ideas y'all will probably disagree with.

#1
Red Sox get: Mike Moustakas
Royals get: Roniel Raudes and Bobby Dalbec

Sox need a 3B rental, and Moustakas offers the power they seek.

#2
Yankees get: Yonder Alonso
Athletics get: Justus Sheffield

Yankees get their 1B. Have to overpay due to Alonso's season.

#3
Nationals get: Zack Cozart
Reds get: Pedro Severino

With Turner's injury, the Reds will need a consistent SS. Baker knows Cozart and he matches their team. Severino could start at catcher when Mesoraco goes down again.

#4
Astros get: Johnny Cueto
Giants get: Joe Musgrove and Gilberto Celestino

Astros get a strong rental, Giants get a controllable arm and a development piece.

#5
Orioles get: Asdrubal Cabrera
Mets get: Hunter Harvey.

#6
Mariners get: Brandon Belt
Giants get: Tyler O'Neill, Thyago Vieira

Mariners get a long-term 1B answer, Giants retool with some serious prospects.

#7
Cardinals get: Eduardo Nunez
Giants get: Jack Flaherty

Cardinals get a guy who, like Gyorko, they can move all around the diamond. Giants get a strong prospect.

thestatbook

1.) 01 Jul 2017 13:27:14
I actually think these are pretty damn good. Number six, in my opinion, is off a little, as I think it would take more to get Belt - toss in another prospect, and we're good. Otherwise, these all seem well thought out and address needs for teams.


2.) 01 Jul 2017 15:42:36
I thought about that one for a while, actually. Problem with Belt is his contract gets more expensive after this year. $17.2M a year thru 2021, whereas he's only making $4M this season. Unless the Giants throw in cash to offset, it'll be a lighter return.


3.) 02 Jul 2017 15:43:20
I don't see the Nationals trading for a shortstop. Turner is going to be back in September and the Nationals have a large divisional lead. They have a good enough team to maintain the lead and then Turner will back for the playoffs.


4.) 02 Jul 2017 18:00:52
There are always set backs and depth is paramount in the playoffs. They may not necessarily trade for a SS, but it'd be a smart idea at this venture.

Perhaps a guy like Erick Aybar would be a better candidate for Washington?


 

 

07 Jul 2014 00:47:53
Giants:
David Price
Ben Zobrist

Rays:
Kyle Crick
Edwin Escobar
Marcus Simien

White Sox:
Joe Panik
Ryan Vogelsong

Probably a long shot here, but why the heck not.

thestatbook

1.) To call this a long shot is understating it.


2.) Very much a long shot. Giants don't have the best farm system, they do have some pitching but that's about it.


 

 

 

thestatbook's talk posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's talk posts

 

06 Nov 2017 22:07:36
Chi Sox, did you see Fangraphs' Steamer projections for 2018?

Their projection for Garcia:
.281/ .339/ .454, 19 HR, 69 RBI.

If you look back, what I stated their projection would be: .285, 20 HR, 70 RBI.

You said you'd bookmark your projections. I've got mine, and I got them almost to a tee with what Fangraphs put.

For reference, yours were: .295, 28 HR, 90 RBI.

We shall see.

thestatbook

1.) 07 Nov 2017 02:04:07
I don't normally like to gloat, as I generally let the truth speak for itself.

But considering his recent statements, I thought I'd remind him of where we stand.


2.) 07 Nov 2017 03:48:37
Truly amazing, statbook. I really wish I could show you how impressed I am that you were finally right . on a . projection.

It's crazy how they can project those things without even knowing who will be hitting around him yet.


3.) 07 Nov 2017 04:00:08
And yet, there you were, arguing with me about how ludicrous the projection was.

And no, it's not that crazy, except the RBI projection, which really is pretty much garbage and no one cares a bit about it (I just wanted to reveal how close I was) .

Notice the HR projection? Not close to 30, at all. Haha.


4.) 07 Nov 2017 04:15:05
Notice too, that even Fangraphs think Garcia is going to regress hardcore? EVERY point I stated (of which you insisted to argue with me) was featured in these projections.

If we give him a few more hits to make him a .290 hitter, his BABIP is .350, exactly. (You also argued that .350 BABIP doesn't make him a .290 hitter) .

It's almost as if I knew what I was talking about.


5.) 07 Nov 2017 18:31:28
I didn't say your prediction was ludicrous, I just disagreed with it.


6.) 08 Nov 2017 11:32:44
Batting average and OBP are also affected by who is hitting around you. Aka baseball common sense if you've ever played. But we don't have to get into that again.


You made your projections based on what is on Fangraphs already, so when they slightly update their new projections in early NOVEMBER, you haven't really proven anything. But hey, I know you crave being right in any facet on this site. We get it, we know your narrative. "I'm always right, everyone else is always wrong. "

I'm also curious to see what Avi's 2017 streamer projections were in November.

Nonetheless, happy hot stove season.


7.) 08 Nov 2017 13:47:35
No, I made my projections based on his 2017 numbers, and considered standard regression, and didn’t elevate any totals to unnecessary or absurd levels (i. e. home runs) . I did all this before Fangraphs put out their Steamer projections.

And the projections won’t change drastically with updates to teams. They might change slightly, but they won’t see Garcia as some .300/ .360 guy simply because they improved at catcher (or wherever) . It’ll be very small, almost unnoticeable changes. It might go up as high as .285, because the projections still have to account for BABIP regression, moderate power, and low-to-average speed.

If the White Sox go out and add J. D. Martinez or something, maybe these projections will see a massive swing, but don’t bet on it happening. ZiPS will likely strike a similar note when they come out in February.


 

 

02 Aug 2017 14:20:30
End of Season predictions, now that the trade deadline has past

AL East- Red Sox. This is honestly a crap shoot, and I think the Red Sox have the better makeup to win the division.

AL Central- Royals. A series of strong deadline moves propels them past Cleveland to surprise everyone for a division title. One last hoorah before the band gets split up.

Al West- Astros. As if there was any doubt.

AL Wild Cards: Indians & Yankees.

NL East- Nationals. Again, they won it early on.

NL Central- Cubs. Brewers were a cute story, but the Cubs will run away with the division.

NL West- Dodgers. The NL was an easy one.

NL Wild Cards- Brewers & Rockies.

Playoffs:
ALWC- Indians over Yankees.
NLWC- Brewers over Rockies.

ALDS #1- Indians over Astros in 5.
ALDS #2- Red Sox over Royals in 3.

NLDS #1- Dodgers over Brewers in 4.
NLDS #2- Nationals over Cubs in 5.

ALCS- Red Sox over Indians in 6.
NLCS- Nationals over Dodgers in 7.

WS- Red Sox over Nationals in 5.

Awards:
AL MVP- Altuve
AL CY Young- Sale
AL Rookie- Judge

NL MVP- Harper
NL Cy Young- Scherzer
NL Rookie- Bellinger

thestatbook

1.) 03 Aug 2017 04:32:45
Brewers aren't making the playoffs.


2.) 03 Aug 2017 05:09:58
To be honest, the only team I really think I messed up on was Colorado. Not a chance that pitching staff gets it done.

IF they make the playoffs, there's not a chance in hell they win a game.


 

 

01 Aug 2017 05:08:30
What was the best non-najor deal of the deadline?

I'm going with Tim Beckham to the Orioles. Having a nice season and is controllable. Orioles got him for almost nothing.

What is your pick?

thestatbook

1.) 01 Aug 2017 13:14:13
Non as under the radar but I love the Nats picking up Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.

Lefties are batting .168 against Doolittle dating back to beginning of 2016. A weapon to use against the: Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber's of the world.


2.) 16 Aug 2017 21:41:25
FWIW, check out Beckham's stats since his trade. Incredible.


 

 

08 Jul 2014 15:45:14
Padres send:

SS Johnny Manziel (sign-and-trade)

Dodgers Send:

Clayton Kershaw
Yasiel Puig
Matt Kemp
100M in salary support

Count it good as done!

thestatbook

1.) In your world yes. But in reality no. Manziel isn't even signed to a contract. Nor will he. On top of that he would have to be in the organization for a year before a trade.


2.) Wait this is a joke right lmao


3.) Of course this is a joke. Sign and trade is NBA talk.


 

 

 

thestatbook's rumour replies

 

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23 Nov 2017 15:49:28
You undersold Hand, Myers, and Solarte.

I'm beginning to question your Padres fandom.

thestatbook

 

 

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20 Nov 2017 21:20:59
5/ 160 for Arrieta?

That would be the starkest of overpays for a FA I've seen in many years of following baseball.

It makes me curious to see your terms for the Santana and Machado signings.

thestatbook

 

 

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20 Nov 2017 17:55:58
The Jays turn down that trade?

Ross Atkins must be a worse GM than I previously thought.

thestatbook

 

 

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19 Nov 2017 23:08:17
Let the Dodgers take on that contract. Especially if this is the cost for Stanton.

There's very little chance they'll give that return for him.

thestatbook

 

 

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17 Nov 2017 13:40:07
The Blue Jays. The Cubs wouldn’t even consider this.

thestatbook

 

 

 

thestatbook's talk replies