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thestatbook's rumours posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's rumours posts

 

05 Feb 2020 02:04:15
Just posting this for posterity sake:

Dodgers:
Betts
Price
Cash

Red Sox:
Verdugo
Graterol

Twins:
Maeda

My goodness, what an absolute haul for Boston. 12 years of team control (for 2 50+ FV players) for a horrible contract in Price and a rental of Betts.

Red Sox not having to take on a bad contract was a big key. And getting legitimately good young players was even better.

thestatbook

1.) 05 Feb 2020 23:29:54
Good trade overall since the primary objective was to shed payroll. I still think the Red Sox could've gotten more. Verdugo is a great pick up and a future all star. Only time will tell on how this trade works out.


2.) 06 Feb 2020 14:21:30
It's hilarious that my presence is spawning troll accounts. It was a valiant attempt, Insider27. Really good attempt, but not quite close enough.

Try again a little bit harder next time.


3.) 06 Feb 2020 14:30:32
The amount of nonsense about "top 100 prospect lists" is pretty silly. Those lists are compiled by people who don't work for MLB front offices. We don't know where the Red Sox would rank Graterol.

Also, don't forget that Mookie Betts is a rental who is almost all but a sure thing to test free agency. Teams aren't giving up the laughably absurd packages this site has suggested for just one year of him and no guarantee he'll sign an extension (he won't sign an extension) .

Until we know how much money they are sending to LA, we know they shaved over 100M in total dollars, and nearly 50M just for 2020 alone. They got 2 MLB-ready youngsters out of the deal, that's 12 years of service time in exchange for 100M in salary (including a rental) .

I'm not sure what people honestly think the Red Sox could have gotten in return, but they are delusional if they think it's more than this.


4.) 11 Feb 2020 15:52:52
Sorry Thestatbook, you assumed wrong. I just got back from Las Vegas so you might have to search for a different Troll. As for your post, I actually agree with you. I don't see why Bloom is taking so much heat for the return. Price had an awful contract and Betts made it clear he wanted to test FA. To grab two solid guys in Verdugo and Downs, they now can use their flexibility to sign Devers and Benetendi to long term deals.


 

 

02 Dec 2019 14:00:17
Josh Hader just hit the trade block, according to Ken Rosenthal.

Dodgers get: Hader
Brewers get: Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Edwin Rios

It's a bit steep, but when the best available relief options are Will Harris and Daniel Hudson, you have to overpay for elite RP.

thestatbook

1.) 02 Dec 2019 17:12:25
Good start, but I think LA would have to throw in either a sweetener or a better prospect than Rios. Not far off, though.


2.) 03 Dec 2019 05:19:31
I think Milwaukee would be wise to see where they're at in July rather than move Hader now. I'm sure they could get this at the deadline. That's a weird division.


3.) 04 Dec 2019 18:11:43
I agree, Chi Sox.

But I could also see them hoping for a massive overpay from someone who needs a legit closer option.


 

 

27 Nov 2019 15:06:28
Real trade that just went down:

Brewers get: Luis Urias, Eric Lauer.
Padres get: Zach Davies, Trent Grisham.

Really throws a wrench in that whole "Urias for Betts or Lindor" type trades, and shows that Urias isn't as highly seen as Padres fans here thought he was.

thestatbook

1.) 27 Nov 2019 15:40:06
The best the Padres could get with Urias was a pitcher who can't strike people out, and whose fastball teeters below 90mph (Davies has one good pitch: a slider) and a lottery ticket OF, who might not even be one of the top 5 OF in San Diego. And they had to give up Eric Lauer as well.

There's an alternative option too: David Stearns is really good at his job and A. J. Preller is bad at his.

But there's someone who doesn't think very highly of Urias, or thinks far too highly of Davies and Grisham.


2.) 27 Nov 2019 19:01:52
Davies threw a total of 20 sliders in 2019 and was hit to the tune of a .441 xwOBA. In 2018, it was a .616 xwOBA.

If you maybe mean his cutter, those totals were .367 in 2019 and .414 in 2018. His changeup was by far his most effective pitch. The Padres must see something they like, but he's a HEAVY regression candidate.


3.) 28 Nov 2019 01:19:04
Yeah, I don't get it.

But it really tells us a lot about how both teams viewed Urias: not very well. Because Urias wasn't even enough to get Grisham and Davies.


 

 

01 Nov 2019 00:44:08
Giants Offseason

Non-Tender:
Kevin Pillar
Joey Rickard

Re-sign:
Stephen Vogt- 1/2.5M

Sign:
Yorubbishomo Tsutsugo 4/32M
Rich Hill- 1/7.5M
Eric Sogard- 1/4M
Brett Anderson- 2/15M
Craig Stammen- 1/5M

Trade:
-Brandon Belt to Kansas City for Danny Duffy
-Samardzija & Trevor Gott to NY Mets for Dominic Smith

Lineup
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
LF- Tsutsugo
3B- Longoria
1B- Smith
SS- Crawford
2B- Dubon
CF- Duggar

Bench
C- Stephen Vogt
INF- Eric Sogard
INF- Donovan Solano
OF- Alex Dickerson
OF- Austin Slater

Rotation
1. Johnny Cueto (R)
2. Brett Anderson (L)
3. Danny Duffy (L)
4. Rich Hill (L)
5. Tyler Beede (R)

Bullpen
CL- Shaun Anderson (R)
SU- Craig Stammen (R)
SU- Jandel Gustave (R)
RP- Tyler Rogers (R)
RP- Sam Coonrod (R)
RP- Wandy Peralta (L)
RP- Sam Selman (L)
RP- Enderson Franco (R)

The bullpen would probably be fleshed out more with some waiver claims and spring-training invites. But over all, Zaidi will probably fill the roster with a bunch of aging players on short contracts he can move in July if possible.

thestatbook

1.) 01 Nov 2019 11:49:08
I have no idea what happened with Tsutsugo's first name. It's Yorubbishomo.


2.) 01 Nov 2019 11:54:34
No, the website think's there's a swear word in the middle of Tsutsugo's name. Lol.


3.) 02 Nov 2019 01:10:14
Sogard gets more.


4.) 02 Nov 2019 20:12:08
Not sure I agree. He's a good regression candidate. He's never had a BABIP of higher than .300 for 2 consecutive seasons. He was at .315 this year, which is awfully high.

His numbers and value were tied to a number he's somewhat unlikely to sustain. If he gets more, you're probably looking at 5-6M. But I don't see him getting a multi-year deal, nor do I see him getting a big 1-year deal.


5.) 04 Nov 2019 19:18:51
I don't think Dominic Smith is a guy Farhan would want on his team. Not a chance

And rich hill. yeesh. Maybe like 40 innings all year from him.


6.) 05 Nov 2019 04:56:23
Hill was worth 0.9 wins in just 58 innings last year, and Zaidi was credited for insisting the Dodgers trade for him in LA. I wouldn’t write it off.

As far as Domonic Smith, how? He’s a high OBP guy who can play both 1B and OF. So OBP and positional flexibility. That’s the stuff that gets Farhan out of bed every morning.


 

 

09 Oct 2019 13:45:31
A little different for this site, but I thought I'd go with manager predictions. Look, no one knows who anyone will hire.



Angels- Joe Maddon. He won't fix a thing, but it'll look like they are trying.

Cubs- David Ross. I just can't help but think they'll make a horrible decision for a manager, thus, David Ross is my prediction.

Giants- Raul Ibanez. I wouldn't be shocked if they look internally (Meulens or Wotus), but I think Zaidi goes for something new. Ibanez would be an interesting fit.

Mets- Joe Girardi. The little brother syndrome is in full effect in Flushing Meadows. Nothing will change, but at least they got a good name, right?

Pirates- Hensley Meulens. For a team that has as much focus on international scouting (South Korea, South Africa, India, Lithuania, etc. ), Meulens would be an absolutely incredible candidate for their club.

Phillies (who ultimately fire Kapler) - Buck Showalter. I can't think of a more perfect candidate to lead a team with as much talent as Philadelphia. Get him a bullpen and move out of the way.

Royals- Mike Matheny. Because why not? They need someone to drag them along for a while. Matheny is Rick Renteria 2.0.

thestatbook

1.) 09 Oct 2019 13:51:34
Forgot the Padres- Ron Washington. I'd imagine Preller would need to find someone who would actually enjoy working for him. Going with Washington (who was manager when Preller was in Texas) would probably work.


2.) 09 Oct 2019 23:48:19
Wouldn’t mind wash but I hear he isn’t into any of the analytics so I throw him out. I hope it’s one of Maddon, Girardi, or Showalter. We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet.


3.) 10 Oct 2019 05:07:45
I might have to consider adding a prediction for the Dodgers after this, which would certainly be Joe Maddon. And then this whole thing blows up.


4.) 10 Oct 2019 13:08:03
For the Giants, Ibanez has stated he currently doesn't want to manage.


5.) 10 Oct 2019 13:40:56
"We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet. "

Also: I hope it's one of Maddon

Maddon is a GM's wet dream because he doesn't challenge the GM.


6.) 15 Oct 2019 17:55:47
Angels- Joe Maddon
Cubs- Joe Girardi
Giants- Gabe Kapler
Mets- Carlos Beltran
Pirates- Derek Shelton
Phillies- Buck Showalter
Royals- Mike Matheny
Padres- Jayce Tingler.


7.) 15 Oct 2019 23:21:54
Everything looks good I just hope the pads don’t get Tingler!


 

 

 

thestatbook's talk posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's talk posts

 

06 Feb 2020 21:13:09
... deleted

thestatbook

 

 

07 Jan 2020 16:18:35
I thought I'd look at 2019 overperformers, based on BABIP vs. xBABIP differences.

Now, a couple notes:

1) I used a calculation developed by Alex Chamberlain at Fangraphs. This calculator accounts for things like Line Drive %, IFFB, Hard Hit, Speed, Opposite-field hits. Ultimately, the kind of factors that often factor into likeliness for a hit.

2) Some players have unnaturally big xBABIP and BABIP splits. However, just because this is true doesn't mean that a player won't regress. If you disagree, and want to use this defense, you need to give me THREE years worth of data, at a minimum.

3) xBABIP, by nature, gives credit to players who changed their swing, approach, skills or physique. Those changes are already considered, and will manifest themselves in the stats.

4) Regression doesn't guarantee that a player will get worse. Certain changes in stats can change one's BABIP. But statistical trends DO suggest that negative regression is the norm for players who far exceed their xBABIP.

So here are the top 10 BABIP hitters from 2019 (minimum 300 PAs) and their xBABIP.

1. Fernando Tatis: 410 BABIP/.357 xBABIP. Difference: .053

2. Yoan Moncada: .406/.349 Diff: .057

3. Keston Hiura: .402/.357 Diff: .045

4. Tim Anderson: .399/.347 Diff: .052

5. Bryan Reynolds: .387/.357 Diff: .030

6. David Dahl: .386/.358 Diff: .028

7. Brandon Lowe: .377/.348 Diff: .029

8. Harold Castro: .367/.367 Diff: .000

9. Yordan Alvarez: .366/.354 Diff: .012

10. Jorge Alfaro: .364/.359 Diff: .005

A few observations:

1) As usual, the guys at the very top see pretty massive differences. Moncada, Tatis, and Anderson are all over 50 points higher, which is the first time in 5 seasons we've had three that exceed it that highly.

2) Jorge Alfaro's BABIP actually came down from 2018 (.406 BABIP). Since batted ball data was collected (2002), we still have not seen a player manufacture two consecutive .400 BABIP seasons (with 300 PAs). Alfaro had two in a row (.420 in 2017), but he only had 118 PAs, which is not substantive to give data.

3) Castro, Alvarez, and Alfaro were the only ones remotely close to their xBABIP (Castro was dead-on). The thing in common: True IFFB % (FB x IFFB). Castro had a 3.3% IFFB, but that's compared to just a 22.5% fly ball rate. Turns out that not hitting IFFB helps.

4) Moncada, Tatis, and Anderson's thing in common: speed. If there's a skill that will likely result in wider xBABIP vs. BABIP differences, speed is the more likely factor. Although, this isn't a guarantee. Adalberto Mondesi was 15th in BABIP and his xBABIP was only .014 off. Trevor Story's (ranked 11th) speed factor was higher than Anderson & Moncada, and only .004 off.

In other words, speed helps offset it, but there's still underlying factors, and none which are consistent.

Based on that inconsistency, the top three most likely to regress in 2020: Fernando Tatis, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson.

This doesn't mean they will be bad players. But if you're expecting them to take steps forward in 2020, you're betting against nearly 2 decades worth of data.

The most unlikely to regress: While the easy choice would be Harold Castro, I'm going to pick Yordan Alvarez. His 51% hard hit rate, and his moderate 37% fly ball rate has the makings of being highly sustainable.

thestatbook

1.) 07 Jan 2020 16:58:37
I did the same with every team.

Top underperforming team via xBABIP: three way tie for the Angels, Dodgers, and Athletics at .047. Cardinals and Giants were one point below (.046).

Top OVERperforming team: White Sox. 2019 BABIP: .329. xBABIP: .329. Chicago's .329 BABIP put them #1 in baseball. The Rockies had .321 (thanks to a comical .348 home BABIP vs. 292 road) .

If you neutralize it based on xBABIP, the White Sox were 17th. So what happened? There are several factors, but the White Sox were the third worst team, per Fangraphs, in hard hit percentage (32.8%) . They were just barely above the Mariners (32.5) and Orioles (32.4). And a full percent behind the Padres (33.9).

The other element at play: they were #1 in opposite field hits (28.7%) . And the next highest team, Miami, wasn't all that close (26.9%) . xBABIP considers opposite field hits, but it weighs them less than any other factor. This is likely because hitting it opposite field is only controllable in a very minimal way. In other words, opposite field hits are likely the result of greater luck and not so much a sustainable factor.

The White Sox also had 2 of the top 10 BABIP guys, and 4 of the top 25 (McCanna and Leury Garcia) . That will obviously prop up their BABIP.

It'll be interesting to see how the White Sox do with the levels of xBABIP regression they face all around them.


2.) 08 Jan 2020 22:04:00
Statbook, are you just trying to stir the pot with one individual?


3.) 09 Jan 2020 00:53:32
If anyone gets triggered because of stats, that's their problem.


4.) 12 Jan 2020 06:06:59
Moncada and Anderson definitely aren't going to hit .315 and .335 again, respectively. I think Moncada will benefit with continued plate discipline improvements and I'd bet Anderson to sit .285 - .300 for the next couple of seasons.

One point I will disagree with you on is opposite field hits. I think with expected stats in general, the guys who always underperform are the guys that are easily shifted against. If your offensive approach is one that allows you to hit balls all over the diamond, you're obviously going to be harder to defend against. These will be the guys who generally overperform their expected stats.

Barring injury, McCann and Garcia won't see regular ABs in 2020. Only Moncada, Anderson, Abreu, and Jimenez will be the returning regulars in the lineup, so there isn't really regression "all around them". The Jon Jays of the world are not back. Of those 4, their batted ball profiles, in terms of direction, show nothing to warrant extreme shifts. Only left handed Moncada sees a decent share.

The 2020 White Sox offense has the opportunity to be particularly potent after a really good offseason.


5.) 12 Jan 2020 21:53:41
Regarding opposite field hits, there's a reason the formula considers them, and for the very reason you stated. But there's also good reason why it is given the lowest weight (for the reason I stated) : players can only control where the ball is hit to a very minimal degree. If players can control where the ball is hit, you would never see players get shifted against. So your retorts are already considered in the formula.

The White Sox have to be given credit for being active this winter. And there's probably as many bounce-back candidates as there are regression candidates next year.

The point of the exercise wasn't to throw shade at the White Sox, but it just turned out that the White Sox had a lot of guys (and their best offensive performers last year) who significantly over-performed and should see a massive decline in 2020.

The bigger point was actually to look at Tatis and throw some caution regarding people's expectations there. Padres fans seem to think the guy will hit 150 wRC+ next year, or higher. I didn't even realize that Moncada's BABIP was that comically high.


 

 

02 Dec 2018 00:02:50
New homes for some recent non-tendered players:

Billy Hamilton- Athletics
Jonathan Schoop- Twins
Avisail Garcia- Giants
Wilmer Flores- Tigers
Shelby Miller- Tigers
Brad Boxberger- Red Sox
Mike Fiers- Orioles
Hunter Strickland- Braves
Blake Parker- Giants
Dan Jennings- Twins
Yangervis Solarte- Japan (somewhat serious)

thestatbook

1.) 05 Dec 2018 19:09:44
Those are all really good landing spots. Solarte could be a star in Japan with the way he plays, so it will all be a matter of preference on his part. I like Boxburger with the Sox, and I'm very interested to see where both Flores and Garcia wind up. Garcia is a really talented player when he actually plays, and could be a boon to someone. Flores I eel bad for. He's the one guy out there who eats, breathes and sleeps the Mets. They've been his home since he was 16, and he never wanted to leave, but those are the breaks. He should wind up on an American League club. I can see Detroit, but I would keep an ear out on the Yankees. I don't know why, but it just seems like something they would do if they don't make a splashy infield acquisition like Machado.


2.) 05 Dec 2018 20:32:40
With the Tigers a ways from contention, I see them being in on a lot of these guys. You could probably make a case for all of them. Same with the Giants. Teams looking to stockpile playable talent on dirt cheap prices.


3.) 18 Dec 2018 03:42:42
hahaha I absolutely love that statbook has the Giants picking up Avi Garcia.


4.) 01 Jan 2019 06:51:27
I said they’ll pick him up. I didn’t say he’d be great. Zaidi loves cheap depth. They can get Avi for not much more that 4m next year.


 

 

06 Nov 2017 22:07:36
Chi Sox, did you see Fangraphs' Steamer projections for 2018?

Their projection for Garcia:
.281/ .339/ .454, 19 HR, 69 RBI.

If you look back, what I stated their projection would be: .285, 20 HR, 70 RBI.

You said you'd bookmark your projections. I've got mine, and I got them almost to a tee with what Fangraphs put.

For reference, yours were: .295, 28 HR, 90 RBI.

We shall see.

thestatbook

1.) 07 Nov 2017 02:04:07
I don't normally like to gloat, as I generally let the truth speak for itself.

But considering his recent statements, I thought I'd remind him of where we stand.


2.) 07 Nov 2017 03:48:37
Truly amazing, statbook. I really wish I could show you how impressed I am that you were finally right . on a . projection.

It's crazy how they can project those things without even knowing who will be hitting around him yet.


3.) 07 Nov 2017 04:00:08
And yet, there you were, arguing with me about how ludicrous the projection was.

And no, it's not that crazy, except the RBI projection, which really is pretty much garbage and no one cares a bit about it (I just wanted to reveal how close I was) .

Notice the HR projection? Not close to 30, at all. Haha.


4.) 07 Nov 2017 04:15:05
Notice too, that even Fangraphs think Garcia is going to regress hardcore? EVERY point I stated (of which you insisted to argue with me) was featured in these projections.

If we give him a few more hits to make him a .290 hitter, his BABIP is .350, exactly. (You also argued that .350 BABIP doesn't make him a .290 hitter) .

It's almost as if I knew what I was talking about.


5.) 07 Nov 2017 18:31:28
I didn't say your prediction was ludicrous, I just disagreed with it.


6.) 08 Nov 2017 11:32:44
Batting average and OBP are also affected by who is hitting around you. Aka baseball common sense if you've ever played. But we don't have to get into that again.


You made your projections based on what is on Fangraphs already, so when they slightly update their new projections in early NOVEMBER, you haven't really proven anything. But hey, I know you crave being right in any facet on this site. We get it, we know your narrative. "I'm always right, everyone else is always wrong. "

I'm also curious to see what Avi's 2017 streamer projections were in November.

Nonetheless, happy hot stove season.


7.) 08 Nov 2017 13:47:35
No, I made my projections based on his 2017 numbers, and considered standard regression, and didn’t elevate any totals to unnecessary or absurd levels (i. e. home runs) . I did all this before Fangraphs put out their Steamer projections.

And the projections won’t change drastically with updates to teams. They might change slightly, but they won’t see Garcia as some .300/ .360 guy simply because they improved at catcher (or wherever) . It’ll be very small, almost unnoticeable changes. It might go up as high as .285, because the projections still have to account for BABIP regression, moderate power, and low-to-average speed.

If the White Sox go out and add J. D. Martinez or something, maybe these projections will see a massive swing, but don’t bet on it happening. ZiPS will likely strike a similar note when they come out in February.


 

 

02 Aug 2017 14:20:30
End of Season predictions, now that the trade deadline has past

AL East- Red Sox. This is honestly a crap shoot, and I think the Red Sox have the better makeup to win the division.

AL Central- Royals. A series of strong deadline moves propels them past Cleveland to surprise everyone for a division title. One last hoorah before the band gets split up.

Al West- Astros. As if there was any doubt.

AL Wild Cards: Indians & Yankees.

NL East- Nationals. Again, they won it early on.

NL Central- Cubs. Brewers were a cute story, but the Cubs will run away with the division.

NL West- Dodgers. The NL was an easy one.

NL Wild Cards- Brewers & Rockies.

Playoffs:
ALWC- Indians over Yankees.
NLWC- Brewers over Rockies.

ALDS #1- Indians over Astros in 5.
ALDS #2- Red Sox over Royals in 3.

NLDS #1- Dodgers over Brewers in 4.
NLDS #2- Nationals over Cubs in 5.

ALCS- Red Sox over Indians in 6.
NLCS- Nationals over Dodgers in 7.

WS- Red Sox over Nationals in 5.

Awards:
AL MVP- Altuve
AL CY Young- Sale
AL Rookie- Judge

NL MVP- Harper
NL Cy Young- Scherzer
NL Rookie- Bellinger

thestatbook

1.) 03 Aug 2017 04:32:45
Brewers aren't making the playoffs.


2.) 03 Aug 2017 05:09:58
To be honest, the only team I really think I messed up on was Colorado. Not a chance that pitching staff gets it done.

IF they make the playoffs, there's not a chance in hell they win a game.


 

 

 

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13 Feb 2020 06:22:40
Before y'all continue to downvote me, consider the following:

From 2018-2019, Clevinger had 8.7 WAR. That's 11th. It's just abover Syndergaard (8.5) and Strasburg (8.1). He's just barely below Aaron Nola.

Syndergaard's price tag was monstrous and Strasburg just received 35M a year. Clevinger will make 4M this year and isn't a free agent until 2023.

The price tag will, and absolutely include at least one top ten prospect, and at least 1 major-leaguer with control. You're probably looking at 16-20 years of control for the return for Cleveland. It will be a massive haul.

For LA, that package would begin with Gavin Lux, and probably include someone like Julio Urias and then at least one really good prospect (Gonsolin, Gray, Graterol) . It'd be a tough pill to swallow for the team that gets Clevinger.

thestatbook

 

 

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06 Feb 2020 14:30:32
The amount of nonsense about "top 100 prospect lists" is pretty silly. Those lists are compiled by people who don't work for MLB front offices. We don't know where the Red Sox would rank Graterol.

Also, don't forget that Mookie Betts is a rental who is almost all but a sure thing to test free agency. Teams aren't giving up the laughably absurd packages this site has suggested for just one year of him and no guarantee he'll sign an extension (he won't sign an extension) .

Until we know how much money they are sending to LA, we know they shaved over 100M in total dollars, and nearly 50M just for 2020 alone. They got 2 MLB-ready youngsters out of the deal, that's 12 years of service time in exchange for 100M in salary (including a rental) .

I'm not sure what people honestly think the Red Sox could have gotten in return, but they are delusional if they think it's more than this.

thestatbook

 

 

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06 Feb 2020 14:21:30
It's hilarious that my presence is spawning troll accounts. It was a valiant attempt, Insider27. Really good attempt, but not quite close enough.

Try again a little bit harder next time.

thestatbook

 

 

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06 Feb 2020 14:19:42
The Indians could get significantly more than that for Clevinger.

thestatbook

 

 

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04 Feb 2020 18:32:09
Taking on Wil Myers and his albatross of a contract is probably more than enough to balance the scales.

David Price is useful. Wil Myers is near replacement level.

thestatbook

 

 

 

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