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thestatbook's rumours posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's rumours posts

 

01 Nov 2019 00:44:08
Giants Offseason

Non-Tender:
Kevin Pillar
Joey Rickard

Re-sign:
Stephen Vogt- 1/2.5M

Sign:
Yorubbishomo Tsutsugo 4/32M
Rich Hill- 1/7.5M
Eric Sogard- 1/4M
Brett Anderson- 2/15M
Craig Stammen- 1/5M

Trade:
-Brandon Belt to Kansas City for Danny Duffy
-Samardzija & Trevor Gott to NY Mets for Dominic Smith

Lineup
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
LF- Tsutsugo
3B- Longoria
1B- Smith
SS- Crawford
2B- Dubon
CF- Duggar

Bench
C- Stephen Vogt
INF- Eric Sogard
INF- Donovan Solano
OF- Alex Dickerson
OF- Austin Slater

Rotation
1. Johnny Cueto (R)
2. Brett Anderson (L)
3. Danny Duffy (L)
4. Rich Hill (L)
5. Tyler Beede (R)

Bullpen
CL- Shaun Anderson (R)
SU- Craig Stammen (R)
SU- Jandel Gustave (R)
RP- Tyler Rogers (R)
RP- Sam Coonrod (R)
RP- Wandy Peralta (L)
RP- Sam Selman (L)
RP- Enderson Franco (R)

The bullpen would probably be fleshed out more with some waiver claims and spring-training invites. But over all, Zaidi will probably fill the roster with a bunch of aging players on short contracts he can move in July if possible.

thestatbook

1.) 01 Nov 2019 11:49:08
I have no idea what happened with Tsutsugo's first name. It's Yorubbishomo.


2.) 01 Nov 2019 11:54:34
No, the website think's there's a swear word in the middle of Tsutsugo's name. Lol.


3.) 02 Nov 2019 01:10:14
Sogard gets more.


4.) 02 Nov 2019 20:12:08
Not sure I agree. He's a good regression candidate. He's never had a BABIP of higher than .300 for 2 consecutive seasons. He was at .315 this year, which is awfully high.

His numbers and value were tied to a number he's somewhat unlikely to sustain. If he gets more, you're probably looking at 5-6M. But I don't see him getting a multi-year deal, nor do I see him getting a big 1-year deal.


5.) 04 Nov 2019 19:18:51
I don't think Dominic Smith is a guy Farhan would want on his team. Not a chance

And rich hill. yeesh. Maybe like 40 innings all year from him.


6.) 05 Nov 2019 04:56:23
Hill was worth 0.9 wins in just 58 innings last year, and Zaidi was credited for insisting the Dodgers trade for him in LA. I wouldn’t write it off.

As far as Domonic Smith, how? He’s a high OBP guy who can play both 1B and OF. So OBP and positional flexibility. That’s the stuff that gets Farhan out of bed every morning.


 

 

09 Oct 2019 13:45:31
A little different for this site, but I thought I'd go with manager predictions. Look, no one knows who anyone will hire.



Angels- Joe Maddon. He won't fix a thing, but it'll look like they are trying.

Cubs- David Ross. I just can't help but think they'll make a horrible decision for a manager, thus, David Ross is my prediction.

Giants- Raul Ibanez. I wouldn't be shocked if they look internally (Meulens or Wotus), but I think Zaidi goes for something new. Ibanez would be an interesting fit.

Mets- Joe Girardi. The little brother syndrome is in full effect in Flushing Meadows. Nothing will change, but at least they got a good name, right?

Pirates- Hensley Meulens. For a team that has as much focus on international scouting (South Korea, South Africa, India, Lithuania, etc. ), Meulens would be an absolutely incredible candidate for their club.

Phillies (who ultimately fire Kapler) - Buck Showalter. I can't think of a more perfect candidate to lead a team with as much talent as Philadelphia. Get him a bullpen and move out of the way.

Royals- Mike Matheny. Because why not? They need someone to drag them along for a while. Matheny is Rick Renteria 2.0.

thestatbook

1.) 09 Oct 2019 13:51:34
Forgot the Padres- Ron Washington. I'd imagine Preller would need to find someone who would actually enjoy working for him. Going with Washington (who was manager when Preller was in Texas) would probably work.


2.) 09 Oct 2019 23:48:19
Wouldn’t mind wash but I hear he isn’t into any of the analytics so I throw him out. I hope it’s one of Maddon, Girardi, or Showalter. We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet.


3.) 10 Oct 2019 05:07:45
I might have to consider adding a prediction for the Dodgers after this, which would certainly be Joe Maddon. And then this whole thing blows up.


4.) 10 Oct 2019 13:08:03
For the Giants, Ibanez has stated he currently doesn't want to manage.


5.) 10 Oct 2019 13:40:56
"We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet. "

Also: I hope it's one of Maddon

Maddon is a GM's wet dream because he doesn't challenge the GM.


6.) 15 Oct 2019 17:55:47
Angels- Joe Maddon
Cubs- Joe Girardi
Giants- Gabe Kapler
Mets- Carlos Beltran
Pirates- Derek Shelton
Phillies- Buck Showalter
Royals- Mike Matheny
Padres- Jayce Tingler.


7.) 15 Oct 2019 23:21:54
Everything looks good I just hope the pads don’t get Tingler!


 

 

23 Jul 2019 17:02:53
Lets make some trades!

Rays: Sam Dyson
Giantst: IF Michael Brosseau

Yankees: Marcus Stroman
Blue Jays: RHP Deivi Garcia, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Luis Gil

Dodgers: Will Smith (the reliever)
Giants get: RHP Josiah Gray, IF Omar Estevez

Brewers: Mike Minor
Rangers: IF Mauricio Dubon, OF Trent Grisham

Cubs: Hunter Pence
Rangers: LHP Justin Steele

Padres: Trevor Bauer
Indians: OF Hunter Renfroe, LHP Ryan Weathers

Cardinals: Jake Diekman
Royals: IF Edmundo Sosa

Athletics: Francisco Liriano
Pirates: RHP Wandisson Charles, RHP Gus Varland

thestatbook

 

 

11 Dec 2018 15:53:39
Giants moves:

1) Nationals get: Joe Panik
Giants get: Tanner Roark, Michael Taylor

Nationals are looking to trade Roark. Giants need SP depth.

Here's why this works: Panik is projected to earn about 4M in arbitration, but Roark is projected at 10M. Nationals need to kick in something, and the Giants could ask for an OF who has no path to decent PAs in Washington.

2) Astros get: Brandon Belt (Giants pitch in 15M)
Giants get: Cionel Perez, Myles Straw

Here's why this works: Astros need left-handed hitting, and a 1B/DH. They get the best defensive 1B in baseball, who also has serious power capability (but is held back by SF's ballpark). Giants get a similar return for what they were offering for one year of Goldschmidt, minus Bukauskas.

3) Giants get: Kole Calhoun (10M from Giants)
Angels get: Mark Melancon, Tyler Beede

Giants get a guy the Angels have been trying to move for a while, the Angels get a reliever who's stock is up from last year.

4) Phillies get: Madison Bumgarner
Giants get: Adam Haseley, Spencer Howard

Why this work: Giants get some prospects to build depth, Phillies get a strong SP to add with Nola.

Free Agent Signings:
Yusei Kikuchi- 6/27M, plus tons of incentives
Blake Parker- 1/6.5
Josh Harrison- 2/14
Justin Bour- 1/5

Lineup
CF- Steven Duggar
2B- Josh Harrison
C- Buster Posey
1B- Justin Bour
3B- Evan Longoria
SS- Brandon Crawford
RF- Kole Calhoun
LF- Michael Taylor

Bench:
C- Aramis Garcia
2B- Alen Hanson
3B- Pablo Sandoval
OF- Austin Slater

Rotation
Jeff Samardzija
Yusei Kikuchi
Tanner Roark
Dereck Rodriguez
Andrew Suarez

Bullpen
CP- Will Smith (L)
SU- Sam Dyson (R)
SU- Tony Watson (L)
RP- Blake Parker (R)
RP- Reyes Moronta (R)
RP- Ty Blach (L)
RP- Chris Stratton (R)
RP- Cionel Perez (L)

Giants are able to move about 20-30M in salary.

thestatbook

1.) 11 Dec 2018 16:02:46
Before anyone jumps down my throat about Kikuchi's deal, know this:

Kenta Maeda signed a deal for 8/ 25 in a free agent market that was the deepest for starting pitching we've seen in a long time. Farhan Zaidi had direct involvement in that deal.

Kikuchi follows a similar path as Maeda: late 20's, history of arm/ shoulder injuries, and the new posting system might hurt him even more. He'll probably receive a deal with tons of incentives based on innings pitched and games started that amount to him making money if he's not hurt.


2.) 11 Dec 2018 20:57:20
Why in the world would the giants do any of the deals except the first one. the Calhoun deal is atrocious.


3.) 11 Dec 2018 21:20:37
They'd trade Belt because he still has value. The dude can flat out hit (and he gets on base, a lot), but is hindered by his ballpark. Zaidi has been very outspoken about trying to match the team to the ballpark, which means he's going more pitcher friendly, and more speed/ contact friendly.

Melancon for Calhoun has been a rumor circling for some time now. LA needs relievers, about 4-5 of them.

Zaidi is going to do a lot of work this winter. And the roster will look much, much different than it has in the past.


4.) 12 Dec 2018 22:30:04
Melancon also has full no trade clause so I don't think so but Beede shouldn’t be in that deal then.


 

 

13 Nov 2018 19:08:44
A couple trade ideas for y'all. Let's not nit-pick on the secondary pieces for these trades.

1) St. Louis gets: David Peralta. Arizona gets: C Andrew Knizner, LHP Luke Weaver, 2B Max Schrock.

St. Louis gets an OF coming off a huge season with several seasons of control. Arizona retools and gets a young catcher.

2) Boston gets: RHP Jose Leclerc. Texas gets: 3B Michael Chavis, RHP Tanner Houck, and 1B Sam Travis.

Boston gets perhaps the most underrated reliever in baseball. Texas gets several good young players.

3) NY Yankees get: James Paxton. Seattle gets: 3B Miguel Andujar, RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Michael King

New York gets their #2 starter. Seattle gets Andujar, who plays DH for them. (I'm about 90% sure New York lands Machado)

4) LA Dodgers get: Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland gets: Yasiel Puig, RHP Dustin May, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and LHP Alex Wood.

Dodgers get an elite arm. The return isn't "flashy", but it's very, very good for Cleveland.

5) Houston gets: JT Realmuto. Miami gets: RHP Forrest Whitley, OF/1B Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Rogelio Armenteros.

Houston takes advantage of the fact the NL East teams don't want to help a division foe. Miami gets a great return.

5) Brewers get: Joe Panik. Giants get: OF Domingo Santana.

Straight arbitration player swap. A lot of talk about the Brewers non-tendering Schoop. Which creates a need for 2B. Santana has nowhere to play, Giants can save money in the OF and find a replacement 2B elsewhere.

thestatbook

1.) 13 Nov 2018 22:07:36
Trade 1 - Pretty good. I think that Arizona wants one of Nolan Gorman or Dakota Hudson. That's key not a nit-picker haha. Peralta was one of the best OF in the NL last year offensively so I think the return features at least one of those two.

Trade 2 - No matter how much Boston wants Jose Leclerc, Boston has to offer more than that. Someone on the big league roster with 2-3 years of control - like Brian Johnson. Boston gets their missing piece though.

Trade 3 - I can't see the Yankees trading Andujar no matter how desperate they are for pitching. And I don't think they want Machado. I think he lands in Philly. If the Yankees sign him, it's possible that they take on 2 of the 3 biggest contracts ever, making it very difficult to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Especially at those back-end years of each deal. I think they also want money to spend on Mike Trout after 2020.

Trade 4 - The Astros are actually a great potential landing spot for Realmuto, but I don't think they would include Yordan Alvarez. A 277, 21 HR, 74 RBI doesn't attract 2 top 100 prospects. Especially with just 2 years of control and Cole and Verlander being Free Agents after next year. Garrett Stubbs deserves a shot in the bigs as well. 310 in Triple A is incredibly respectable, he is one of the most underrated catching prospects in the game.

Trade 5 - I really like trade 5. All good.


2.) 13 Nov 2018 22:10:23
By trade 5 I meant the Panik for Santana swap. I missed the Carrasco deal, I like that as well.


3.) 13 Nov 2018 22:31:35
I think these are all pretty reasonable trades and I do agree with you that the Yankees are probably going to sign Machado. There has been a lot of connections and stuff on them. All the trades help each team with their needs. If the Marlins do trade Realmuto, they probably will, it is going to have be better than what they got for Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna.


4.) 13 Nov 2018 23:35:04
I just don't see the Yankees outbidding teams like LA, Atlanta or Houston for elite pitching with what's remaining in the farm system.

They have 3 50+ FV prospects remaining (Sheffield, Florial, Abreu) . So unless they are willing to gut all they have left, and not be able to make another big trade later, Andujar just seems to be the right guy.

But if you want a trade of Sheffield, Florial, and Abreu for Paxton, I'd be okay with that.


5.) 13 Nov 2018 23:36:56
Batman, I think the Realmuto trade is going to be fairly close to the Yelich deal, but it'll have to be better because of the weak market for catchers.


6.) 14 Nov 2018 02:45:50
I agree with you statbook, it will be hard for them to outbid other teams. they still have a much better farm system than they did a few years ago, just most of their top talent is in the lower minors now.


7.) 16 Nov 2018 12:35:33
OF Pederson instead of Puig.


 

 

 

thestatbook's talk posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's talk posts

 

02 Dec 2018 00:02:50
New homes for some recent non-tendered players:

Billy Hamilton- Athletics
Jonathan Schoop- Twins
Avisail Garcia- Giants
Wilmer Flores- Tigers
Shelby Miller- Tigers
Brad Boxberger- Red Sox
Mike Fiers- Orioles
Hunter Strickland- Braves
Blake Parker- Giants
Dan Jennings- Twins
Yangervis Solarte- Japan (somewhat serious)

thestatbook

1.) 05 Dec 2018 19:09:44
Those are all really good landing spots. Solarte could be a star in Japan with the way he plays, so it will all be a matter of preference on his part. I like Boxburger with the Sox, and I'm very interested to see where both Flores and Garcia wind up. Garcia is a really talented player when he actually plays, and could be a boon to someone. Flores I eel bad for. He's the one guy out there who eats, breathes and sleeps the Mets. They've been his home since he was 16, and he never wanted to leave, but those are the breaks. He should wind up on an American League club. I can see Detroit, but I would keep an ear out on the Yankees. I don't know why, but it just seems like something they would do if they don't make a splashy infield acquisition like Machado.


2.) 05 Dec 2018 20:32:40
With the Tigers a ways from contention, I see them being in on a lot of these guys. You could probably make a case for all of them. Same with the Giants. Teams looking to stockpile playable talent on dirt cheap prices.


3.) 18 Dec 2018 03:42:42
hahaha I absolutely love that statbook has the Giants picking up Avi Garcia.


4.) 01 Jan 2019 06:51:27
I said they’ll pick him up. I didn’t say he’d be great. Zaidi loves cheap depth. They can get Avi for not much more that 4m next year.


 

 

06 Nov 2017 22:07:36
Chi Sox, did you see Fangraphs' Steamer projections for 2018?

Their projection for Garcia:
.281/ .339/ .454, 19 HR, 69 RBI.

If you look back, what I stated their projection would be: .285, 20 HR, 70 RBI.

You said you'd bookmark your projections. I've got mine, and I got them almost to a tee with what Fangraphs put.

For reference, yours were: .295, 28 HR, 90 RBI.

We shall see.

thestatbook

1.) 07 Nov 2017 02:04:07
I don't normally like to gloat, as I generally let the truth speak for itself.

But considering his recent statements, I thought I'd remind him of where we stand.


2.) 07 Nov 2017 03:48:37
Truly amazing, statbook. I really wish I could show you how impressed I am that you were finally right . on a . projection.

It's crazy how they can project those things without even knowing who will be hitting around him yet.


3.) 07 Nov 2017 04:00:08
And yet, there you were, arguing with me about how ludicrous the projection was.

And no, it's not that crazy, except the RBI projection, which really is pretty much garbage and no one cares a bit about it (I just wanted to reveal how close I was) .

Notice the HR projection? Not close to 30, at all. Haha.


4.) 07 Nov 2017 04:15:05
Notice too, that even Fangraphs think Garcia is going to regress hardcore? EVERY point I stated (of which you insisted to argue with me) was featured in these projections.

If we give him a few more hits to make him a .290 hitter, his BABIP is .350, exactly. (You also argued that .350 BABIP doesn't make him a .290 hitter) .

It's almost as if I knew what I was talking about.


5.) 07 Nov 2017 18:31:28
I didn't say your prediction was ludicrous, I just disagreed with it.


6.) 08 Nov 2017 11:32:44
Batting average and OBP are also affected by who is hitting around you. Aka baseball common sense if you've ever played. But we don't have to get into that again.


You made your projections based on what is on Fangraphs already, so when they slightly update their new projections in early NOVEMBER, you haven't really proven anything. But hey, I know you crave being right in any facet on this site. We get it, we know your narrative. "I'm always right, everyone else is always wrong. "

I'm also curious to see what Avi's 2017 streamer projections were in November.

Nonetheless, happy hot stove season.


7.) 08 Nov 2017 13:47:35
No, I made my projections based on his 2017 numbers, and considered standard regression, and didn’t elevate any totals to unnecessary or absurd levels (i. e. home runs) . I did all this before Fangraphs put out their Steamer projections.

And the projections won’t change drastically with updates to teams. They might change slightly, but they won’t see Garcia as some .300/ .360 guy simply because they improved at catcher (or wherever) . It’ll be very small, almost unnoticeable changes. It might go up as high as .285, because the projections still have to account for BABIP regression, moderate power, and low-to-average speed.

If the White Sox go out and add J. D. Martinez or something, maybe these projections will see a massive swing, but don’t bet on it happening. ZiPS will likely strike a similar note when they come out in February.


 

 

02 Aug 2017 14:20:30
End of Season predictions, now that the trade deadline has past

AL East- Red Sox. This is honestly a crap shoot, and I think the Red Sox have the better makeup to win the division.

AL Central- Royals. A series of strong deadline moves propels them past Cleveland to surprise everyone for a division title. One last hoorah before the band gets split up.

Al West- Astros. As if there was any doubt.

AL Wild Cards: Indians & Yankees.

NL East- Nationals. Again, they won it early on.

NL Central- Cubs. Brewers were a cute story, but the Cubs will run away with the division.

NL West- Dodgers. The NL was an easy one.

NL Wild Cards- Brewers & Rockies.

Playoffs:
ALWC- Indians over Yankees.
NLWC- Brewers over Rockies.

ALDS #1- Indians over Astros in 5.
ALDS #2- Red Sox over Royals in 3.

NLDS #1- Dodgers over Brewers in 4.
NLDS #2- Nationals over Cubs in 5.

ALCS- Red Sox over Indians in 6.
NLCS- Nationals over Dodgers in 7.

WS- Red Sox over Nationals in 5.

Awards:
AL MVP- Altuve
AL CY Young- Sale
AL Rookie- Judge

NL MVP- Harper
NL Cy Young- Scherzer
NL Rookie- Bellinger

thestatbook

1.) 03 Aug 2017 04:32:45
Brewers aren't making the playoffs.


2.) 03 Aug 2017 05:09:58
To be honest, the only team I really think I messed up on was Colorado. Not a chance that pitching staff gets it done.

IF they make the playoffs, there's not a chance in hell they win a game.


 

 

01 Aug 2017 05:08:30
What was the best non-najor deal of the deadline?

I'm going with Tim Beckham to the Orioles. Having a nice season and is controllable. Orioles got him for almost nothing.

What is your pick?

thestatbook

1.) 01 Aug 2017 13:14:13
Non as under the radar but I love the Nats picking up Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.

Lefties are batting .168 against Doolittle dating back to beginning of 2016. A weapon to use against the: Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber's of the world.


2.) 16 Aug 2017 21:41:25
FWIW, check out Beckham's stats since his trade. Incredible.


 

 

08 Jul 2014 15:45:14
Padres send:

SS Johnny Manziel (sign-and-trade)

Dodgers Send:

Clayton Kershaw
Yasiel Puig
Matt Kemp
100M in salary support

Count it good as done!

thestatbook

1.) In your world yes. But in reality no. Manziel isn't even signed to a contract. Nor will he. On top of that he would have to be in the organization for a year before a trade.


2.) Wait this is a joke right lmao


3.) Of course this is a joke. Sign and trade is NBA talk.


 

 

 

thestatbook's rumour replies

 

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17 Nov 2019 12:50:11
"So Zaidi gets credit for the prospects he inherited, but no blame for the contracts. He didn't "take the farm system" anywhere. "

Okay, for the third time now, ZAIDI DIDN'T SIGN ANYONE TO THOSE CONTRACTS. My goodness, you truly are the densest, most obtuse person on this site.

Those contracts were given out by the previous GM, of whom the Giants fired. Why would anyone blame Zaidi for the things the last GM did?

And yes, he took the farm system from 27th to 15th in just a matter of months. Several of the minor league teams won or nearly won their respective leagues. Most of their prospects actually rose in FV, particularly those around the 35+ to 40 FV range.

But this is clearly well above your pay-grade. I look forward to you not understanding a single thing that was written.

Go back, learn to read, and then return. Until then, toodiloo.

thestatbook

 

 

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16 Nov 2019 21:11:41
Let's also talk about Zaidi for a second, and then the reason the Giants are here.

Zaidi, in 12 months has taken the Giants from the 27th ranked farm system to the 15th (per Fangraphs) . In only 12 months. No one graduated out of the system. No one got traded away from it. He's only added.

He added by getting rid of ALL of Mark Melancon's contract (and got a solid young prospect) . He got rid of a pitcher with a 5.68 ERA and got Mauricio Dubon. He literally acquired his best 2 players last year by not giving up anything. Not one player traded for Pillar has been good (one of them was quickly DFA'd) . And he got Yastrzemski for literally nothing.

He walked into a nightmare scenario in San Francisco, where the previous GM wasted money and prospect capital and he began a rebuild without making a significant trade. Not one of the issues he's facing has been his fault, and yet, he's cleaning it up. I expect him to do the same over the next 12 months.

And let's be honest, the Giants are in this spot because they've been spoiled rotten. When you win 3 world championships in a decade, you're going to have some ugly years following. It's inevitable. The Tigers, Orioles and Phillies all went through it, and two of them don't even have a championship to show for it. The Royals are going through it. The Cubs are a few seasons away, as are the Red Sox. The last two are nearing the scenario where they have an aging roster that's owed a ton of money.

The Giants will be fine. Meanwhile, the White Sox still have to show that they can win a WS with the laughingstock of a front office they have. I'm guessing you'll be waiting an awfully long time. All this stuff they are doing will mean nothing if they can't win even one.

Let's close this conversation with this: the Giants have won three world series this decade. There are kids who can legally drive who weren't even alive to see a White Sox championship. And I'd bet they'll have kids old enough to drive before we see another one.

thestatbook

 

 

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16 Nov 2019 20:52:54
"You say Tatis, I say Bryan Reynolds, but i'm not going to be the hindsight analyst here - those guys are the worst. "

Are you seriously dense? I think you might be. Zaidi didn't trade Reynolds. He didn't sign any of the guys you mentioned. The guys who made those trades were fired, not extended.

thestatbook

 

 

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16 Nov 2019 17:14:06
Betts would start. Cespedes, if he's even healthy, would go to the bench.

Not that much of a problem.

thestatbook

 

 

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16 Nov 2019 01:20:38
Your inability to inventory your own team doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence in your ability to know stats.

Not that I'm surprised. But that dig at the Giants was comical coming from a White Sux fan.

thestatbook

 

 

 

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