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thestatbook's Posts and Other Poster's Replies To thestatbook's Posts

 

 

To thestatbook's last 5 rumours posts

 

To thestatbook's last 5 talk posts

 

To thestatbook's last 5 rumour replies

 

To thestatbook's last 5 talk replies

 

thestatbook's rumours posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's rumours posts

 

13 Nov 2018 19:08:44
A couple trade ideas for y'all. Let's not nit-pick on the secondary pieces for these trades.

1) St. Louis gets: David Peralta. Arizona gets: C Andrew Knizner, LHP Luke Weaver, 2B Max Schrock.

St. Louis gets an OF coming off a huge season with several seasons of control. Arizona retools and gets a young catcher.

2) Boston gets: RHP Jose Leclerc. Texas gets: 3B Michael Chavis, RHP Tanner Houck, and 1B Sam Travis.

Boston gets perhaps the most underrated reliever in baseball. Texas gets several good young players.

3) NY Yankees get: James Paxton. Seattle gets: 3B Miguel Andujar, RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Michael King

New York gets their #2 starter. Seattle gets Andujar, who plays DH for them. (I'm about 90% sure New York lands Machado)

4) LA Dodgers get: Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland gets: Yasiel Puig, RHP Dustin May, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and LHP Alex Wood.

Dodgers get an elite arm. The return isn't "flashy", but it's very, very good for Cleveland.

5) Houston gets: JT Realmuto. Miami gets: RHP Forrest Whitley, OF/1B Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Rogelio Armenteros.

Houston takes advantage of the fact the NL East teams don't want to help a division foe. Miami gets a great return.

5) Brewers get: Joe Panik. Giants get: OF Domingo Santana.

Straight arbitration player swap. A lot of talk about the Brewers non-tendering Schoop. Which creates a need for 2B. Santana has nowhere to play, Giants can save money in the OF and find a replacement 2B elsewhere.

thestatbook

1.) 13 Nov 2018 22:07:36
Trade 1 - Pretty good. I think that Arizona wants one of Nolan Gorman or Dakota Hudson. That's key not a nit-picker haha. Peralta was one of the best OF in the NL last year offensively so I think the return features at least one of those two.

Trade 2 - No matter how much Boston wants Jose Leclerc, Boston has to offer more than that. Someone on the big league roster with 2-3 years of control - like Brian Johnson. Boston gets their missing piece though.

Trade 3 - I can't see the Yankees trading Andujar no matter how desperate they are for pitching. And I don't think they want Machado. I think he lands in Philly. If the Yankees sign him, it's possible that they take on 2 of the 3 biggest contracts ever, making it very difficult to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Especially at those back-end years of each deal. I think they also want money to spend on Mike Trout after 2020.

Trade 4 - The Astros are actually a great potential landing spot for Realmuto, but I don't think they would include Yordan Alvarez. A 277, 21 HR, 74 RBI doesn't attract 2 top 100 prospects. Especially with just 2 years of control and Cole and Verlander being Free Agents after next year. Garrett Stubbs deserves a shot in the bigs as well. 310 in Triple A is incredibly respectable, he is one of the most underrated catching prospects in the game.

Trade 5 - I really like trade 5. All good.


2.) 13 Nov 2018 22:10:23
By trade 5 I meant the Panik for Santana swap. I missed the Carrasco deal, I like that as well.


3.) 13 Nov 2018 22:31:35
I think these are all pretty reasonable trades and I do agree with you that the Yankees are probably going to sign Machado. There has been a lot of connections and stuff on them. All the trades help each team with their needs. If the Marlins do trade Realmuto, they probably will, it is going to have be better than what they got for Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna.


4.) 13 Nov 2018 23:35:04
I just don't see the Yankees outbidding teams like LA, Atlanta or Houston for elite pitching with what's remaining in the farm system.

They have 3 50+ FV prospects remaining (Sheffield, Florial, Abreu) . So unless they are willing to gut all they have left, and not be able to make another big trade later, Andujar just seems to be the right guy.

But if you want a trade of Sheffield, Florial, and Abreu for Paxton, I'd be okay with that.


5.) 13 Nov 2018 23:36:56
Batman, I think the Realmuto trade is going to be fairly close to the Yelich deal, but it'll have to be better because of the weak market for catchers.


6.) 14 Nov 2018 02:45:50
I agree with you statbook, it will be hard for them to outbid other teams. they still have a much better farm system than they did a few years ago, just most of their top talent is in the lower minors now.


7.) 16 Nov 2018 12:35:33
OF Pederson instead of Puig.


 

 

06 Nov 2018 16:15:37
Giants offseason

Sign Bryce Harper 12/ 400M
Note: The Giants will probably write Bryce a blank check. They want him. They wanted Stanton and they now want Harper. I don't think they miss on a verifiable superstar two winters in a row.

Trade Joe Panik to NY for Sonny Gray and Michael King.

Non-tender Sam Dyson

Sign Josh Harrison 2/ 10M.

Trade Hunter Strickland to Boston for Bryan Mata and Chandler Shepherd

Re-sign Nick Hundler 1/ 2M.
Re-sign Derek Holland 1/ 5M.

Lineup:
CF- Duggar/ Hernandez (until Duggar is healthy)
1B- Belt
C- Posey
RF- Harper
3B- Longoria
SS- Crawford
LF- Shaw/ Slater (platoon)
2B- Harrison

Bench:
Hundley/ Hanson/ Sandoval/ Hernandez/ Slater

Rotation:
1. Bumgarner
2. Samardzija
3. Rodriguez
4. Suarez
5. Holland

Bullpen:
CL- Smith
SU- Watson
SU- Moronta
RP- Melancon
RP- Ty Blach
RP- Ray Black
RP- Chris Stratton

Now tell me all the ways I'm wrong.

thestatbook

1.) 06 Nov 2018 21:24:09
You have them trade for Sonny Gray, but he's not on your roster and you offer no explanation as to why. Did you forget about the trade.


2.) 07 Nov 2018 03:39:53
Haha. Good spot. I had a huge brain fart there apparently.

Geez. I guess that means no Derek Holland, so swap those two.

Or move Stratton to AAA and Holland to the 'pen.


3.) 07 Nov 2018 13:33:50
I want to say no way Harper signs with the Giants because they haven't been as good and seem to be on the downside the last few years. However money talks and if they offer the most money he would probably go there, with an opt out clause after 3-4 years.


 

 

13 Aug 2018 00:24:52
End of the year award projections.


National League

MVP
Who everyone will vote for: Javier Baez
Who should win it: Matt Carpenter

Cy Young
Who everyone will vote for: Max Scherzer
Who should win it: Jacob deGrom

Rookie of the Year:
Who everyone will vote for: Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna
Who should win it: Dereck Rodriguez.

American League

MVP
Who everyone will vote for: Mookie Betts
Who should win it: Mookie Betts

Cy Young:
Who everyone will vote for: Chris Sale
Who should win it: Trevor Bauer

Rookie of the Year:
Who everyone will vote for: Gleyber Torres
Who should win it: Shane Bieber.

thestatbook

1.) 13 Aug 2018 02:05:34
One can't disagree with Betts but it would be interesting to see where the Bosox would be without JD Martinez.

2nd in BA
1st in hits
1st in HR
1st in RBI

Can you think of any prior player with those rankings not to win MVP.

But yes Betts will win it.

Also, I think Scherzer deserves it.


2.) 04 Oct 2018 06:33:03
umm Snell?


 

 

11 Jul 2018 22:22:20
Some trades:

#1
Brewers get Machado, Britton
Orioles get: Corbin Burnes, Brett Phillips, Marcos Diplan

Note: Orioles want young pitching. Brewers have solid young pitching and add in an OF who has no exact role going forward.

#2
Dodgers get: Asdrubal Cabrera
Mets get: Caleb Ferguson

Note: Dodgers get smart and don't overpay for a flashy SS. Cabrera fills in nicely and his versatility plays well for them. Mets get a young pitcher who needs some work.

#3
Red Sox get: Raisel Iglesias
Reds get: Tanner Houck, Darwinzon Hernandez, C. J. Chatham

Note: Red Sox, who've been looking for a significant bullpen upgrade, find one in Iglesias. They pay a hefty price, but manage to keep top prospects who lost playing time for various reasons.

#4
Indians get: Brad Hand
Padres get: Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, Luis Oviedo

Note: Padres get a handful of pitching prospects for the best RP available.

#5
Phillies get: Nathan Eovaldi
Rays get: McKenzie Mills, Dylan Cozens

Note: Eovaldi has been brilliant, but health is still a serious concern. Phillies find a bargain and give up a moderate return.

#6
Yankees get: Cole Hamels, Cash
Rangers get: Chance Adams, Billy McKinney

Note: Yankees take on Hamels' salary and in return, gets off light in terms of prospect haul.

#7
Giants get: Corey Dickerson
Pirates get: Sam Dyson, Tyler Beede, Shaun Anderson

Giants get some help at OF for a season and a half, and basically wash the salary with moving Dyson to Pittsburgh. The Pirates get MLB-ready pitching and some projects for Searage to work his magic with.

I eagerly await to see how you all disagree with these.

thestatbook

1.) 12 Jul 2018 03:22:04
Pittsburgh doesn't do that.


2.) 12 Jul 2018 09:43:40
(Clicked reply too early)

Im not sure what the cost on Dickerson would be. Maybe it’s more than the Giants would want to pay. I more or less think he’d be a good guy for the Giants. And they have a lot of young pitchers that the Pirates could work with.


 

 

09 Mar 2018 15:53:09
Nationals get: Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers get: Andrew Stevenson, Erick Fedde, Matt Wieters.

Apparently, that's how this works.

thestatbook

1.) 10 Mar 2018 15:06:28
Peterson and Grandal aren't moving in this one?


2.) 10 Mar 2018 17:31:11
This is good according to Honk-logic.


3.) 10 Mar 2018 20:36:01
The Dodgers can’t trade Pederson and Grandal to themselves.


 

 

 

thestatbook's talk posts with other poster's replies to thestatbook's talk posts

 

06 Nov 2017 22:07:36
Chi Sox, did you see Fangraphs' Steamer projections for 2018?

Their projection for Garcia:
.281/ .339/ .454, 19 HR, 69 RBI.

If you look back, what I stated their projection would be: .285, 20 HR, 70 RBI.

You said you'd bookmark your projections. I've got mine, and I got them almost to a tee with what Fangraphs put.

For reference, yours were: .295, 28 HR, 90 RBI.

We shall see.

thestatbook

1.) 07 Nov 2017 02:04:07
I don't normally like to gloat, as I generally let the truth speak for itself.

But considering his recent statements, I thought I'd remind him of where we stand.


2.) 07 Nov 2017 03:48:37
Truly amazing, statbook. I really wish I could show you how impressed I am that you were finally right . on a . projection.

It's crazy how they can project those things without even knowing who will be hitting around him yet.


3.) 07 Nov 2017 04:00:08
And yet, there you were, arguing with me about how ludicrous the projection was.

And no, it's not that crazy, except the RBI projection, which really is pretty much garbage and no one cares a bit about it (I just wanted to reveal how close I was) .

Notice the HR projection? Not close to 30, at all. Haha.


4.) 07 Nov 2017 04:15:05
Notice too, that even Fangraphs think Garcia is going to regress hardcore? EVERY point I stated (of which you insisted to argue with me) was featured in these projections.

If we give him a few more hits to make him a .290 hitter, his BABIP is .350, exactly. (You also argued that .350 BABIP doesn't make him a .290 hitter) .

It's almost as if I knew what I was talking about.


5.) 07 Nov 2017 18:31:28
I didn't say your prediction was ludicrous, I just disagreed with it.


6.) 08 Nov 2017 11:32:44
Batting average and OBP are also affected by who is hitting around you. Aka baseball common sense if you've ever played. But we don't have to get into that again.


You made your projections based on what is on Fangraphs already, so when they slightly update their new projections in early NOVEMBER, you haven't really proven anything. But hey, I know you crave being right in any facet on this site. We get it, we know your narrative. "I'm always right, everyone else is always wrong. "

I'm also curious to see what Avi's 2017 streamer projections were in November.

Nonetheless, happy hot stove season.


7.) 08 Nov 2017 13:47:35
No, I made my projections based on his 2017 numbers, and considered standard regression, and didn’t elevate any totals to unnecessary or absurd levels (i. e. home runs) . I did all this before Fangraphs put out their Steamer projections.

And the projections won’t change drastically with updates to teams. They might change slightly, but they won’t see Garcia as some .300/ .360 guy simply because they improved at catcher (or wherever) . It’ll be very small, almost unnoticeable changes. It might go up as high as .285, because the projections still have to account for BABIP regression, moderate power, and low-to-average speed.

If the White Sox go out and add J. D. Martinez or something, maybe these projections will see a massive swing, but don’t bet on it happening. ZiPS will likely strike a similar note when they come out in February.


 

 

02 Aug 2017 14:20:30
End of Season predictions, now that the trade deadline has past

AL East- Red Sox. This is honestly a crap shoot, and I think the Red Sox have the better makeup to win the division.

AL Central- Royals. A series of strong deadline moves propels them past Cleveland to surprise everyone for a division title. One last hoorah before the band gets split up.

Al West- Astros. As if there was any doubt.

AL Wild Cards: Indians & Yankees.

NL East- Nationals. Again, they won it early on.

NL Central- Cubs. Brewers were a cute story, but the Cubs will run away with the division.

NL West- Dodgers. The NL was an easy one.

NL Wild Cards- Brewers & Rockies.

Playoffs:
ALWC- Indians over Yankees.
NLWC- Brewers over Rockies.

ALDS #1- Indians over Astros in 5.
ALDS #2- Red Sox over Royals in 3.

NLDS #1- Dodgers over Brewers in 4.
NLDS #2- Nationals over Cubs in 5.

ALCS- Red Sox over Indians in 6.
NLCS- Nationals over Dodgers in 7.

WS- Red Sox over Nationals in 5.

Awards:
AL MVP- Altuve
AL CY Young- Sale
AL Rookie- Judge

NL MVP- Harper
NL Cy Young- Scherzer
NL Rookie- Bellinger

thestatbook

1.) 03 Aug 2017 04:32:45
Brewers aren't making the playoffs.


2.) 03 Aug 2017 05:09:58
To be honest, the only team I really think I messed up on was Colorado. Not a chance that pitching staff gets it done.

IF they make the playoffs, there's not a chance in hell they win a game.


 

 

01 Aug 2017 05:08:30
What was the best non-najor deal of the deadline?

I'm going with Tim Beckham to the Orioles. Having a nice season and is controllable. Orioles got him for almost nothing.

What is your pick?

thestatbook

1.) 01 Aug 2017 13:14:13
Non as under the radar but I love the Nats picking up Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.

Lefties are batting .168 against Doolittle dating back to beginning of 2016. A weapon to use against the: Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Rizzo, Hayward, Schwarber's of the world.


2.) 16 Aug 2017 21:41:25
FWIW, check out Beckham's stats since his trade. Incredible.


 

 

08 Jul 2014 15:45:14
Padres send:

SS Johnny Manziel (sign-and-trade)

Dodgers Send:

Clayton Kershaw
Yasiel Puig
Matt Kemp
100M in salary support

Count it good as done!

thestatbook

1.) In your world yes. But in reality no. Manziel isn't even signed to a contract. Nor will he. On top of that he would have to be in the organization for a year before a trade.


2.) Wait this is a joke right lmao


3.) Of course this is a joke. Sign and trade is NBA talk.


 

 

 

thestatbook's rumour replies

 

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17 Nov 2018 23:12:12
The other problem with considering WAR a "counting stat" is that the folks who created it have even said there are areas in which it can't be differentiated.

"WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. "

What we would traditionally consider a "counting stat" (HR, RBI, SB, W, K, BB, etc), there's a distinguishable difference. The difference between a guy who hit 30 HR and one who hit 31 is 1 home run. That's a tangible, measurable thing. While it says nothing of value, it's distinguishable. We can compare the two and say one hitter was better in that department.

6.4 and 6.1 are not the same thing, I would imagine you agree. And the difference is 0.3. But if we can "distinguish", then what are we counting. What exactly constitutes "0.1" wins above replacement? How do we count that, and if it's countable, it should be distinguishable at the minute levels.

WAR is a value stat. It doesn't "count" anything tangible.

thestatbook

 

 

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17 Nov 2018 22:45:25
And the "counting stat" vs. "rate stat" argument still doesn't settle the issue at hand:

It's utterly manipulative, and shows a massive misunderstanding of how WAR works when you think you can just say "had player A played X games, his WAR would be Y"

Because, again, it assumes that all variables remain constant: at the player level, the "replacement level", the run environment, and all other circumstances.

In fact, Mike even hinted at something (perhaps intentionally, who knows) that would make such an argument rather silly: the more games played, the more variations you can have. If anything, an estimation of WAR on MORE games would be a very, very difficult thing to project, and anyone suggesting it is blowing smoke.

thestatbook

 

 

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17 Nov 2018 22:41:54
I would disagree with both on their stances of what constitutes WAR as a "counting stat". It's an aggregate of stats compared to a league average aggregate of stats, adjusted for positions, ballparks, run environments, etc, then weighed against "replacement" level.

If you want to simplify it to "it goes up and down, and thus it's a counting stat", sure. But we can hopefully all agree this is an extremely simplified answer with no explanation of the nuance involved (I can't blame Eno or Mike for giving you the simple answer, they have better things to do with their time) .

If you don't want to call it a "rate", that's also fine. Call it a value stat, then.

But to call it a counting stat, on the notion that it "goes up and down" is no better than calling an airplane a car because it has wheels.

thestatbook

 

 

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17 Nov 2018 17:33:27
Trade 1: Why would the Indians want Luke Voit? They have Encarnacion and Alonso. There's no reason to take on Voit. Also, that's a lot of quantity for the Yankees (You have twelve rostered players being moved for three coming back) .

Trade 2: Greinke's remaining contract minus Ellsbury's makes Greinke about $19M a year. Why would the Diamondbacks even consider giving another team that kind of value?

And if I'm Arizona, I'm not taking 6 guys I have to give a 40-man roster spot to. After Rule 5 protections and the two spots I'm giving away (Greinke and Goldschmidt), I don't even have space on the 40-man roster for those guys.

thestatbook

 

 

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17 Nov 2018 15:20:52
That'd also be a hard pass from Atlanta on the Castellanos deal. He's not worth Mike Soroka, let alone three other very good pieces.

thestatbook

 

 

 

thestatbook's talk replies