22 Dec 2023 17:44:51
Some Dylan Cease Trade Packages:

Baltimore Orioles:

Coby Mayo 3B/1B/RF
Joey Ortiz SS
Trace Bright RHP
Carlos Tavera RHP

New York Yankees:

Jasson Dominguez OF
Oswald Peraza SS
Luis Gil RHP
Luis Velasquez RHP

New York Mets:

Drew Gilbert OF
Jett Williams OF/SS
Dominic Hamel RHP
Nate Lavender LHP

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Emmett Sheehan RHP
Andy Pages OF
Ricky Vanasco RHP
Hunter Feduccia C

Cincinnati Reds:
Noelvi Marte INF
Chase Petty RHP
Hunter Hollan LHP
Hector Rodriguez OF

Boston Red Sox:

Ceddanne Rafaela UTL
Nick Yorke 2B
Wikelman Gonzalez RHP
Chase Meidroth 3B

Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver RHP
Hurston Waldrep RHP
Vaughn Grissom SS/2B
Luis Sanchez INF

Arizona Diamondbacks:

*With Eloy Jimenez also included*

Druw Jones OF
Tommy Troy 2B
Yu-Min Lin LHP
Spencer Giesting LHP
Wilderd Patiño OF

1.) 04 Jan 2024
04 Jan 2024 12:35:35
This sort of gigantic haul would make sense if the White Sox were trading away the 2022 version of Dylan Cease.

Cease has two years of team control and still maintains tremendous upside, but there's no chance a team is paying this sort of price for Cease after the 2023 season he had.

I think Cease makes more sense as a trade deadline guy, as teams will want to see what he's done and there may be more desperation.

2.) 14 Jan 2024
14 Jan 2024 17:16:13
Cease's 3.7 fWAR was the 18th best among pitchers in 2023. His 12.6 fWAR is the 8th best over the last 3 seasons.

His ERA was 2.38 runs higher in 2024 despite only 0.62 rise in FIP. He suffered a 70-point (! ) BABIP rise.

He was better in 2022, but he's still an ace.

3.) 15 Jan 2024
15 Jan 2024 19:12:40
Dylan Cease's projections put him around similar production to Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga.

He's a solid pitcher, but no one is gutting the top-end of their farm system for him.

4.) 15 Jan 2024
15 Jan 2024 22:07:19
He nets a top-50 player and another in the top 85-120.

5.) 15 Jan 2024
15 Jan 2024 22:14:30
"He's a solid pitcher" - yes, the 8th best in baseball over the last three years. Very solid indeed.

6.) 16 Jan 2024
16 Jan 2024 02:10:07
No one is paying that price for a player who projects to be as good as Marcus Stroman next year LMAOOOO.

They could still get a really good return for Cease if they realize that Cease is not going to repeat his 2022. All projections have him as worse than 2023. But if they want to demand 2022 prices, then they can screw up their shot at getting on with their rebuild.

That window closed FAST!

7.) 16 Jan 2024
16 Jan 2024 02:55:03
What about Cease, heading into his age 28 season, makes you so confident that his best days are behind him despite him being a consistent 1 or 2 starter over the past 3 seasons?

They should demand a price for a guy that has been the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons who still has a TON of upside. If they don't get it, then wait until the deadline. The guy has never been close to the IL. He struggled mightily through stretches last season and still wound up with a top-20 season for a SP. He's a stud.

He's 4.3 wins better than Stroman over the last three seasons & Steamer has Cease more than a half-win better than Stroman in '24. The comparison makes no sense - not sure what you're getting at.

8.) 16 Jan 2024
16 Jan 2024 03:42:02
Being projected as a a “half-win” better than Stroman for 2024 is kind of making my point. Teams aren’t giving up anywhere close to the return you’re suggesting for a guy who is barely projected to be better than Stroman or Imanaga.

You’re asking teams, who are already hesitant to give up massive returns by way of prospects, to give up huge returns for a guy coming off a pretty bad year and projected to be worse in 2024.

There is just no reason for any team to do that. And there’s no reason for the White Sox to further diminish Cease’s value. They HAVE to drop the asking price. There’s a good return out there for Dylan Cease. But it’s foolish if this is what they insist on.

9.) 16 Jan 2024
16 Jan 2024 12:19:14
It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million, there's a ton of surplus here. Are there only 17 pitchers coming off anything better than a "pretty bad year"?

plus the Sox holding Cease could hurt his value, or it could help. He could very well be more valuable in July than he is now if he returns to '22 form, and there's no reason to suggest why he can't do that.

Luis Castillo is a good package comp here. Very similar age, production, control.

10.) 16 Jan 2024
16 Jan 2024 13:19:46
"It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million"

That's not true, though, because you're ALSO giving up multiple of your top prosepcts to land Dylan Cease. So you're losing a ton of value there.

In each of these trades, you have teams giving up 18-24 years of team control for two years of control on Cease. At even 1.0 WAR per season of control, that's 18 WAR for, what, 5-6 WAR over the next two?

You're asking teams to pay 3-4 times what Cease is likely to give you? Yeah, that's ludicrous. No team is going to pay that right now.

11.) 17 Jan 2024
17 Jan 2024 13:55:17
Yes, this is how trades work my man. lol.

The team is acquiring a current frontline starter at a crazy low salary in exchange for prospects who may turn out to produce 18 WAR, but may also never make the major leagues. Don't overthink this for the sake of arguing.

12.) 17 Jan 2024
17 Jan 2024 16:35:52
Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections.

That's not "overhinking this for the sake of arguing. " It's telling you the reality: Dylan Cease is not as valuable as you think he is.

Then again, you thought Rick Hahn was the greatest GM of all-time, and we all saw how that ended. Maybe your opinions aren't as great as you think they are.

13.) 17 Jan 2024
17 Jan 2024 21:34:31
"Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections. "

The Mariners very recently did this exact thing for Luis Castillo.

The Astros traded their top 2 prospects for a 40 year old Verlander.

etc, etc.

He's the 8th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last three seasons that still possesses additional upside on essentially a 2-year, $20 million contract. You're lost, per usual.

14.) 18 Jan 2024
18 Jan 2024 17:30:58
You're willfully ignoring a crucial detail: Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo were both better pitchers than Marcus Stroman, by a considerable margin.

Dylan Cease is likely not that much better.

No one, I repeat NO ONE, cares what Dylan Cease's 2022 fWAR was. It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him, between the extremely low BABIP and the low HR/ FB%. They all can see that Cease isn't going to match the production again.

Again, the White Sox could get a really solid return for Dylan Cease. There's a solid return that is far less than what you're suggesting for him.

But if Chris Getz doesn't get real with the pricetag, he's going to pull a Rick Hahn and completely bungle the window of opportunity he has before him.

15.) 19 Jan 2024
19 Jan 2024 04:35:23
"It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him"

His '21 fWAR was higher, yet I'm the one who's "willfully ignoring a crucial detail". Again, he's the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the LAST THREE SEASONS. It's not a fluke.

Cease has made 97 start over the last three seasons and has put up a 12.6 fWAR. He will pitch 2024 at 28 years old.

In the 97 starts before Castillo was traded, he put up a 12.9 fWAR and he was traded at 29 years old. The return should be almost identical.

Those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Nate.

16.) 20 Jan 2024
20 Jan 2024 13:51:32
I don't know what part of "his 2022 stats don't matter" made you not only ignore that part, but you went FURTHER BACK in your assessment.

Teams absolutely will not care what Dylan Cease did in 2021, either. I seriously don't know why that's so hard for you.

He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher who was in the 32nd percentile in HardHit% and 23rd in EV. His chase rate went down. His velocity went down. The HardHit% and avg. EV went UP.

Things aren't trending the right way, and thus, we get a pretty lousy projection for him.

Could he buck that trend? Of course he could. But no team is going to give up the premium to bet against that trend.

As far as "fluke" goes, go look at his Statcast metrics. 2023 was directly in line with every other season he's had. 2022 was a fluke and, again, the projections pretty much seem to reflect this.

2021 was a higher fWAR because his K-rate was a full 1.18 K/ 9 higher and his walk-rate was lower. His K/ BB% was 2.4% better in 2021.

It's almost like, and hear me out, the trends have continued to get worse! Man, those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Geronimo.

17.) 21 Jan 2024
21 Jan 2024 15:47:01
I'm not denying that his '23 peripherals were worse, but calling a 4.4 WAR season a "fluke" when it was bookended by a 4.5-win season and a 3.7-win season is kinda funny. You're just talking.

His Statcast metrics fell off the table in '23, and yet he still put up a 3.7-wins season and was a top-20 pitcher in baseball. What does that say about how good he is? If those bounce back even a little bit in 2024, he's a 4+-win pitcher once again.

And you think that teams only care about 2023 performance when evaluating players? 2022 and 2021 can just be completely thrown out? That's ridiculous.

Take the Castillo return (which is clearly a pretty great comp) and work from there. Yet there's no pressure to trade him now. Even you agreed with that.

18.) 21 Jan 2024
21 Jan 2024 23:29:09
Castillo wasn't coming off a significant downward trend in his Statcast metrics when he was traded, Cease is. Hence why your comparison isn't working here.

The Cease situation is awkward. There's no pressure to trade him now, but every day he plays in a White Sox uniform is a day closer to free agency for his acquiring team. A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off.

The White Sox also have to bank on Cease bucking the projections by a rather hefty margin.

Could he get there? Of course he *could* (I'm not bankning on it) . But this is all getting to where I've been: there's no one who is making that trade NOW. And likely not many who will make that trade later on.

And no, teams aren't going to care about what a pitcher did THREE SEASONS AGO. They might factor it in when running their projections, but that's about it. Dylan Cease's 2021 numbers are about as irrelevant to teams as Brandon Crawford's 2021 numbers.

Teams aren't getting 2021 or 2022 Dylan Cease. They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore.

19.) 22 Jan 2024
22 Jan 2024 01:01:31
"A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off. "

Right, and this is why Castillo and Cease, despite some concerns with Cease's stuff in '23, are more equivalent than you think given Cease has another half-season of control.

"They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore. "

Yeah, that one mph of lost velo is long gone for the 28 year old who has never been on the IL. He's cooked.

20.) 22 Jan 2024
22 Jan 2024 12:51:52
"He's cooked. "

Look, I know you're more interested in arguing in bad faith (it's all you know how to do), but this is a bad look, even for you.

Saying there's not confidence he'll get to those 2021-2022 numbers again doesn't mean he's cooked. There's still, as you have put it, a solid pitcher there.

But teams aren't gutting the upper part of their farm system for a "solid pitcher. " Those prices are asking teams to believe they can get the 2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease again. Is there a team that feels that way? Possibly, but I'm not banking on it.

That's been my point. You have to reflect how teams will likely feel about Cease GOING FORWARD. The projections don't even believe he'll return to those old seasons in 2024. I seriously doubt teams will believe, especially when it costs them the return you're saying it will.

It's just not going to happen.

The White Sox have an avenue to get a really, really good return for Dylan Cease. But if this is what they continue to insist on, they are going to watch his value continue to tank.

But then again, this is what we should expect from the White Sox, who think that hiring the guy their FIRED GM hired was a good idea.

21.) 26 Jan 2024
26 Jan 2024 20:23:01
ZiPs has Cease twice as valuable as Stroman. LOL!

22.) 29 Jan 2024
29 Jan 2024 13:13:18
LOL. Nothing more "Chi Sox" than finding the most optimistic projection and running with it because it matches your view!

The irony is that the variance in projections upholds the point I'm making, not you. That Cease has range of 0.7 WAR on his projections (a non-insignificant total, according to you) is a pretty large blight against his trade value, no?

The fact that teams don't know which Dylan Cease they are getting is precisely why I don't think any of them are making anything remotely close to the trade you've hinted at.

23.) 14 Mar 2024
14 Mar 2024 15:51:15
OOf. One top 100 prospect and some guys with comically high variance.

The White Sox made a good deal for Cease, but you VASTLY over-estimated that deal.

Makes it kind of difficult to appreciate a good deal when Chi Sox' projection ceiling was the absolute moon+.

24.) 15 Mar 2024
15 Mar 2024 06:17:39
Yeah not quite as much as these packages, but they still made out really well. 2 top 75s by Fangraphs and a really fun prospect in Zavala who could very well end up being the best player in the deal on either side. The list of guys that have put up a 140+ wRC+ in A-ball at 18 years old is insane.

Plus Wilson who has really good peripherals that can be flipped later.

Getz has taken arguably the worst farm in baseball and now has it comfortably in the top-10 in less than a year. This team is going to be bad, but I'm intrigued by the direction.

25.) 17 Mar 2024
17 Mar 2024 19:42:41
Man, it's almost as if I was correct in saying that no one was paying the price tag you suggested for a depreciating asset of a pitcher.

Weird that I'm dead right yet again.

26.) 18 Mar 2024
18 Mar 2024 02:54:18
Monumental W for you my man. Huge congrats.