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25 Nov 2022 15:56:06
Free Agent Predictions (sorted by position)

CATCHERS
Willson Contreras- Tigers, 5/100
Omar Narvaez- Red Sox, 2/15
Gary Sanchez- Cardinals, 2/16
Christian Vazquez- Giants, 2/14

FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu- Padres, 2/36
Josh Bell- Astros, 4/48
Brandon Belt- Cubs, 1/10
Trey Mancini- Guardians, 1/8

SECOND BASE
Adam Frazier- Nationals, 1/5
Jean Segura- Mariners, 1/10.5

SHORTSTOPS
Elvis Andrus- Orioles, 1/5.5
Xander Bogaerts- Phillies 7/196
Carlos Correa- Giants, 8/260
Jose Iglesias- Cubs, 1/4
Dansby Swanson- Orioles, 7/175
Trea Turner- Dodgers, 5/185

THIRD BASE
Brian Anderson- Giants, 1/6
Jeimer Candelario- Brewers, 1/6
Justin Turner- Dodgers, 1/10

LEFT FIELD
Andrew Benintendi- Rockies, 3/36
Michael Brantley- Marlins, 2/25
Joey Gallo- Dodgers, 1/12.5
David Peralta- Pirates, 1/5
Jurickson Profar- Astros, 2/20

CENTER FIELD
Cody Bellinger- Tigers, 1/13.5
Kevin Kiermaier- White Sox, 1/10
Brandon Nimmo- Rangers, 6/150

RIGHT FIELD
Mitch Haniger- Giants, 2/32
Aaron Judge- Yankees, 8/340
Wil Myers- Orioles, 1/9
AJ Pollock- Red Sox, 2/22
Matasaka Yoshida- Padres, 3/27

DESIGNATED HITTER
J.D. Martinez- Cardinals, 1/12

STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Bassitt- Mets, 3/51
Jacob deGrom- Rangers, 3/117
Zach Eflin- Orioles, 2/30
Nathan Eovaldi- Red Sox, 3/39
Andrew Heaney- Rays, 2/20
Sean Manaea- Cubs, 1/10
Jose Quintana- White Sox, 2/26
Carlos Rodon- Tigers, 5/130
Kodai Senga- Giants, 4/44
Noah Syndergaard- Padres, 2/30
Jameson Taillon- Blue Jays, 3/30
Justin Verlander- Astros, 2/80
Taijuan Walker- Dodgers, 3/40

RELIEF PITCHERS
Kenley Jansen- Giants, 1/14
Craig Kimbrel- Angels, 1/8
Aroldis Chapman- Diamondbacks, 1/7.5
Brad Hand- Mets, 2/15
Taylor Rogers, Cubs, 1/6.5
Will Smith, Mariners- 2/15

natedog

1.) 28 Nov 2022 13:13:47
Chi Sox doesn't like that I have Craig Kimbrel making $8M. He thinks it somehow means that I'm inconsistent on my view of Kimbrel.

This is not the case. Rather, it reveals that I see teams like the Angels having a willingness to overpay for mediocre relievers. Bad teams spend money in bad ways.

Then again, no team would ever spend $8M on a mediocre pitcher would they? Like, no one is giving that money to say, Mike Clevinger, right?


2.) 28 Nov 2022 16:41:03
Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right?

Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck!


3.) 28 Nov 2022 16:42:50
Notice how Nate is sly to slowly walk back his take that Kimbrel is quote - "complete garbage". Now he's just "mediocre". In a couple months he'll be "solid", or something like that.


4.) 28 Nov 2022 16:51:28
Nit-picky here, but if Elvis Andrus is willing to take $5.5 million to play second base, he'll 1000% be back with the White Sox. He'll want to play short somewhere.

Plus this leaves no spot for either Mateo or Henderson on that infield. They probably only add 1 more via free agency/ trade.


5.) 28 Nov 2022 17:04:12
He had a 5.04 FIP as a starter in 2022, Hubert. That was the 8th worst FIP among all MLB starters with 100 IP or more.

"Guys with career 3.79 FIPs apparently suck! "

Clevinger hasn't had a sub-4 FIP season since 2019.

"Certainly Farhan Zaidi has never bought low on a free agent before. It has literally never happened, right? "

He's never spent $8M on a pitcher who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in a given season, no.

If Rick Hahn wanted a guy with a FIP higher than 5, he could have signed Erick Fedde for like a million dollars. He spent 8x as much money.


6.) 28 Nov 2022 17:29:29
Scratch that, it's a 12M guarantee, not 8M. That's a comical overpay.


7.) 28 Nov 2022 21:53:52
Yeah because Fedde and Clevinger have the same upsides. Of course, you're really good at this!


8.) 29 Nov 2022 02:03:18
The 2020 Sporting News Executive of the Year RUNNER UP Rick Hahn just gave $12M to a pitcher who was equal to Erick Fedde, or lesser than at worst.

In the words of Elon Musk: Let that sink in.

Then again, he's the same guy who gave Dallas Keuchel $55M, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised.


9.) 29 Nov 2022 04:39:09
Would you like to make another guarantee like you did for Kimbrel? "Clevinger will have a FIP above x in 2023, feel free to return to this in October. "

FWIW, I would have liked the move a lot more at $8 million than $12 million, but Katz must think he can revive some of the 2017-2020 production (only 156 innings ago) . Katz has earned that opportunity with solid progress with a lot of guys over the last 2 seasons. Clev's xRV numbers pretty clearly show that his stuff and command were better than the 2022 results showed. We'll see - he's their 5th starter, and I like this kind of upside in that slot.


10.) 29 Nov 2022 13:45:31
I would bet good money Clevinger will have a FIP north of 4. He's simply not a $12M pitcher and I will LOL so hard when he is both not very good AND becomes a reason why the clubhouse falls apart, as he did in San Diego.

There were countless pitchers that both had better numbers and likely better outlooks for 2023 than Clevinger, none of whom would cost $12M in 2023.

Unless Reinsdorf is suddenly willing to spend like crazy (he won't), this was a severe waste of the teams' resources.

Here's a bet I'm even more willing to make: Davis Martin will have a better season, including FIP that is a full run higher than Clevinger's, and I don't particularly believe Martin is good.


11.) 30 Nov 2022 13:07:30
Jesus, that should say a full run LOWER. Martin's FIP will be a full run lower. Clevinger's will be the higher FIP.


 

 

07 Nov 2022 15:47:26
Giants Offseason:

Free Agents:
Sign SS Carlos Correa, 8/260M
Sign SP Kodai Senga, 4/44M
Sign RP Chris Martin, 1/4M
Sign C Christian Vazquez, 2/14M
Sign 1B Josh Bell, 3/36M

Trades:
Acquire OF Ramon Laureano & RHP James Kaprielian from Oakland for OF Grant McCray, RHP Ryan Murphy, OF Luis Gonzalez, RHP Sam Delaplane

Acquire 3B Mike Moustakas & 3B Sal Stewart from Cincinnati for 2B Tommy La Stella. (Immediately cut Moustakas)

Opening Day Lineup
RF- Yastrzemski
1B- Bell
LF- Laureano
3B- Correa
DH- Davis
2B- Estrada
CF- Slater
C- Bart
SS- Crawford

Bench:
C- Vazquez
2B- Flores
3B- Villar
OF- Wade Jr.

Rotation:
1- Webb
2- Senga
3- Cobb
4- DeSclafani
5- Wood

Bullpen
CP- Doval
SU- Martin
SU- Brebbia
RP- Rogers
RP- Young
RP- Kaprielian
RP- Alexander
RP- Junis

natedog

1.) 22 Nov 2022 04:15:14
I don't think Correa is signing to be a third baseman at 28 years old, especially when the shortstop is a 36 year old on a 1 year deal as an inferior defender.

The Giants should go hard for Judge and then quickly pivot to Nimmo if the Yankees don't let him leave.


2.) 22 Nov 2022 15:38:07
Based on Crawford's injury history the past few seasons, there's a good chance Correa (or any SS, should the Giants sign one) would get more reps at SS than any other position. But they'll ask any of their middle infield guys to take reps at 2B/ 3B (much like Trea Turner in '21 when he went to the Dodgers) until Crawford's deal is through. They may not even play Crawford very much against LHP, which will open up that spot for RHH.

Not to mention, noted Correa friend and former boss Pete Putila could probably convince Carlos to take 3B for one of the 8 years of his contract to help the team as it's currently assembled.


3.) 22 Nov 2022 15:39:53
"especially when the shortstop is a 36 year old on a 1 year deal as an inferior defender. "

Crawford's last 3 seasons' dWAR: 7.6, 17.1, 9.2
Correa's last 3: 5.6, 14.9, 2.0

Correa is an excellent defender, but even at Crawford's age, he's still the objectively better defender. Those damn, pesky statistics. Always ruining your silly takes!


4.) 22 Nov 2022 15:53:34
Clarification: that's not "dWAR", it's Fangraphs' defense rating.


5.) 22 Nov 2022 16:28:52
2022-

Crawford: -6 DRS
Correa: 3 DRS

Career-

Crawford: 69 DRS (12872.0 innings)
Correa: 70 DRS (7666.2 innings)

"Pesky statistics"

FanGraphs uses UZR for DEF, which doesn't take the shift in account, essentially making it a useless stat (it may now be semi-useful given the shift ban starting? ) .

Based on various studies, DRS is almost always the go-to for infielders, while OAA is the best for outfielders.


6.) 22 Nov 2022 17:36:00
"Various studies"

Are these from the same folks who predicted the Giants would have just one 110+ wRC+ hitter in 2022? Or that they'd win less than 80 games in 2021? Or that the White Sox would win 95 games in 2022? Let's be honest: your track record on this stuff isn't exactly stellar LMAO.

There's no argument from me that Correa is an elite defender. But the Giants have already pointed out, if you bothered to look ANYTHING up, that they will use Crawford at SS for 2023. This would mean any SS acquired would need to man 2B or 3B for the 2023 season, while getting reps at SS for the purposes of giving Crawford the rest.

This isn't me talking out of my you-know-where, it's directly from interviews that Farhan Zaidi has publicly made.

Regardless of how you feel Correa vs. Crawford defensively, it's better to go with the front office's own claims on the issue: they want Crawford at SS for 2023.


7.) 22 Nov 2022 17:42:57
"FanGraphs uses UZR for DEF, which doesn't take the shift in account, essentially making it a useless stat"

Interesting. Because Correa's UZR and DRS are higher than Crawford's, and yet, their Defensive Rating for Crawford was over 4 times higher.

Make of that what you want, but I don't think it's as simple as "DEF uses UZR, UZR is bad, therefore DEF is bad". Again, Correa's UZR is higher, despite his DEF being 22% of Crawford.

Also funny you'd dismiss OAA. Is that because Crawford was 93rd Percentile while Correa was 18th? Couldn't be due to the number not matching the reality you desire, could it?

Chi Sox would NEVER do that. (Narrator: Chis Sox ALWAYS does that)


8.) 22 Nov 2022 18:41:00
"There's no argument from me that Correa is an elite defender"

That should say "ISN'T". Correa is a stellar defender.


9.) 22 Nov 2022 18:58:32
You can google, right? Google how DEF is calculated. Read about how UZR completely eliminates shifted plays from their calcs and then consider how much teams have shifted their infielders over the last couple of seasons. Research a bit about the different pros and cons of certain defensive metrics. Justin Dunbar has a solid piece on this topic if you need a bit of direction.

"Make of that what you want, but I don't think it's as simple as "DEF uses UZR, UZR is bad, therefore DEF is bad". "

No, this is literally the case. No one uses UZR, and in turn, especially no one uses DEF because they are useless when shifted events are literally ignored. It's that simple, don't over-think it.

"Also funny you'd dismiss OAA. "

Nope, didn't do that. It's just that outfield OAA is 4x as predictive as infield OAA and DRS does a better job for infielders, but OAA is superior for outfielders, yet neither is perfect. Again, just Google this stuff.

But as you usually do, my original comment into something it's not. I ultimately don't care which defensive metrics you personally value to compare Crawford and Correa at short. They're pretty comparable plus defenders. My comment was that Correa's not signing to play third base. Trea Turner never signed with the Dodgers to play 2B, he was traded there and didn't have a choice, so not a comparable situation. You can argue Story, but Trevor Story doesn't have the same leverage as Carlos Correa, and it's no guarantee that Story is the Red Sox SS in '23.

Nico Hoerner is a better defender than Correa at short by every stat, but the Cubs aren't going after Correa to play 3B or 2B - Correa is signing to be an everyday SS in year 1, no matter who that's with, hence why the Giants should target Judge and Nimmo. Their current SS is still solid. You're acting like Correa wanting to sign as a SS when he has literally no reason not to is some kind of hot take.


10.) 22 Nov 2022 20:27:24
Obviously he wants to sign as a SS, and I literally explained that there's good reason Correa would be the SS in 2023 more than he is 3B or SS, based on Crawford's handedness and injury history. If Crawford rakes in 2023, it stands to reason Correa would be the 2B or SS for a season and then get the next 7 at his preferred position. You're acting like the Giants are signing Correa to be the 3B forever. They aren't. It's one season.

If the Giants offered the best contract, do you really think Correa is going to turn it down because he has to play 3B for a few months of a mega-deal? He won't.

As far as SS vs. Judge/ Nimmo, I'd prefer they sign a shortstop. The available SS will never be better, and the Giants will have an opening there after next season. Luciano isn't going to stay at SS (he'll get moved to 2B), and they don't have another SS ready to go. If they miss out on Judge (which I think Judge is going back to NY), they'll pivot and offer that money to a shortstop.

It'll likely be either Correa (his connection to Pete Putila) or Trea Turner (under Zaidi, the Giants have made many efforts to land NC State guys. They cited this when they signed Rodon last winter) .


11.) 22 Nov 2022 20:52:00
The OAA is better for Outfielder argument might work if this was 2019, as it was an outfielder-only stat prior to 2020. So most of your research is still going to factor in OAA with outfielders in mind, specifically, as that is what it was limited to.

In fact, OAA factors in shifting as well, making it fairly useful (and the lack of a shift won't change that reliability) .

Again, this isn't dismissing Correa's defensive abilities, but there are MANY writers, many of whom you would respect, that agree with this assessment. Take Ben Clemens from Fangraphs:

"If you’re looking for a reason to doubt Correa, you’d have to look at his defense. But he’s a good defender, even if his Statcast numbers took a dip this year. Defensive metrics are noisy, and if you didn’t believe he was one of the best defenders in baseball last year (I didn’t), you probably shouldn’t believe he’s below average this year. "

Or take Keith Law's opinion:

"I think it’s also fair to question whether he’s a long-term shortstop at this point, given his age and size, although he was an above-average defender until 2022, when his metrics took a huge hit. "

Law not only points out that Correa's defense took a hit, but that he may not even stay at SS long-term.

Gee, Chi Sox, it's almost like you could Google this information and read it for yourself. But you won't do that, because it doesn't confirm what you've chosen to believe.

I admire your consistency to ignore what's literally been said by experts and by front offices on all this stuff.


12.) 23 Nov 2022 03:49:01
I point you to some research studying the objective year to year reliability of infield and outfield OAA & DRS, and your rebuttal that you believe is the best shot to salvage your argument is opinions of 2 baseball writers on Correa’s defense. And KEITH LAW IS ONE OF THEM. LMAO.

At least I was able to teach you a bit about DEF and UZR. I have a feeling you won’t be referencing those anymore. Blindly rolling with OAA is at least a better option for beginners with these kinds of metrics.


13.) 23 Nov 2022 12:55:49
Keith Law's opinion is:

1. Significantly more valuable than your or my opinions. Like him or not, he has more experience with this than anyone on this site. If you need a reminder: you were the one trying to convince everyone on this site that Craig Kimbrel was an elite reliever, when the Dodgers (the DODGERS) left him off their playoff roster. I seriously doubt you have any room to question an expert on their assessment of a player.

2. In line with other experts. No one believes Carlos Correa had an elite season defensively in 2022, except you. The overall stats don't prove you right, the consensus opinion doesn't look favorably to your take, nothing. All you did was take a few sampled numbers that looked good and ignored all the others and tried to convince us OAA is bad simply because it doesn't fit your theory.


14.) 23 Nov 2022 12:59:00
"I point you to some research studying the objective year to year reliability of infield and outfield OAA & DRS, and your rebuttal that you believe is the best shot to salvage your argument is opinions of 2 baseball writers on Correa’s defense. "

You never pointed me to any specific research. You said "Google it", which is the classic response of anti-vaxxers and pyramid scheme pushers.

Cite your research. Tell me who wrote it. It's quite interesting you didn't do that. Instead, we were just supposed to "Google it".

I'm beginning to think the "research" may not actually exist.


15.) 23 Nov 2022 15:32:35
"22 Nov 2022 18:58:32"

"Justin Dunbar has a solid piece on this topic if you need a bit of direction. "

I'll help ya out again here. It's in the comment in plain text. I said "Google it" because this stuff is not that hard to find. Maybe I'm underestimating the help you need?

"No one believes Carlos Correa had an elite season defensively in 2022, except you. "

Please show me where I said this.

"tried to convince us OAA is bad"

Please show me where I also said this.

You can just make things up, Nathan.

If we want to bring up totally unrelated previous discussions (man, are you grasping for straws or what? ), Kimbrel was no elite reliever in 2022, no, but he was in the top third of RPs with min. 20 IP by FIP. You're acting like a 3.23 FIP is atrocious because the best bullpen in baseball didn't have a spot for him in the postseason. You said he was "no longer good", which the stats tell us is incorrect, and really were more wrong than I was, which makes this kind of funny that you're bringing it up.

Should we maybe talk a bit more about how Darin Ruf is better than Jose Abreu? That's probably more up your alley. Surely Abreu's 9.4 fWAR against Ruf's 2.7 since the start of 2020 is some kind of fluke?


16.) 23 Nov 2022 19:15:54
The article Justin Dunbar wrote was from May 2020 LMAOOOO. Statcast had just started introducing infield OAA. DUNBAR EVEN SAYS THIS HIMSELF.

"It was only recently that Baseball Savant came up with infield OAA, so maybe the results will get better over time"

Statcast OAA for infielders is completely different since the article was written, and the findings of "4 times more predictive for OF than INF" don't stand true today because of how OAA is measured and the details we have.

This also fails to understand something: I never said it was "predictive". I pointed out that Correa & Crawford aren't "equal" nor is Crawford "inferior" as you suggested. By all accounts, statistics as well as the opinion of those in the baseball industry, Brandon Crawford was the objectively better defender, despite being 8 years older than Correa.

I can't wait for you to use information from 2003 to convince of something for today!


17.) 23 Nov 2022 19:41:47
"but he was in the top third of RPs with min. 20 IP by FIP. "

There are 321 relievers that meet the criteria of 20 IP in 2022. Kimbrel ranked 101st. Saying "top third" sounds a whole lot better than "101st"

Interesting you didn't acknowledge he was 180th in xFIP. Or that he was 121st in K-BB%, a stat of which you were so gung ho about last winter. I'm sure it's just purely oversight on your part LMAO.

And I'm sure the Dodgers picked Tommy Kahnle because he had a better FIP, which is the new "preeminent stat for evaluating pitchers according to Chi Sox". Oh wait, his FIP was a full 1.50 runs worse? Oh.


18.) 23 Nov 2022 19:50:49
As far as "hot takes" go, the Darin Ruf one doesn't even land, as you continue to fail to understand the scope of that argument. It was for 2021. It was always considering 2021. But you need it to seem like I said Darin Ruf is the better career 1B. I didn't say that. I'm really sorry, Tito.

If we want to consider hot takes, look no further than this BEAUTY of a trade idea from October 2021:

"White Sox Get:
Ketel Marte 2B/ OF

DBacks Get:
Justin Upton OF
Griffin Canning RHP
Andrew Vaughn 1B/ OF
Wes Kath 3B
Yolbert Sanchez SS
Micker Adolfo OF

Angels Get:
Nick Ahmed SS
David Peralta OF
Dallas Keuchel LHP"

Yes, the trade which the White Sox got to offload a ton of useless salary, the Diamondbacks got to clear salary, and the Angels took the brunt of it. But the White Sox landed the objectively better player, without taking on a dime of dead money.

This one still makes me laugh, because the Angels' return was so awful that it made me wonder if you were trolling.

It's even funnier that you defended the Andrew Vaughn inclusion, especially as Vaughn has -0.7 fWAR after his first 1000 PAs in the majors. I'm sure teams are just lining up to add him AND acquire Keuchel.

Crazy how, yet again, I was right on this stuff.


19.) 23 Nov 2022 19:57:31
Or one last one:

"Keuchel getting to 2.8 WAR in 2022 is much more likely than JBJ getting to 2.8 WAR"

2022 fWAR:
Jackie Bradley Jr: -0.1
Dallas Keuchel: -0.3

You were so adamant that the Brewers would be "all over Keuchel" and spoke glowingly of his "5th Starter upside" despite objections.

"Keuchel is the better player - saying he's as much of a sunk cost as Bradley just really isn't true. "

LMAO.

You take more Ls than a Rick Hahn White Sox team in the playoffs.


20.) 23 Nov 2022 23:35:42
"Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022.

Feel free to return to this in October 2022."

I have returned.

"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

"Also, your regular reminder that Craig Kimbrel is simply not a good pitcher anymore"

Oops! May not want to attempt a victory lap here, bub.

"he was 121st in K-BB%, a stat of which you were so gung ho about last winter. I'm sure it's just purely oversight on your part LMAO. "

"Some other "elite pitchers" from the 90th percentile of K-BB%: Hoby Milner, Scott Effross, Jason Adam. "

Hey Nate, do you have any update on these 3? Surely none of them were good RPs, right? Almost like K-BB% is a pretty good metric to use there buddy.

So, I said that Kimbrel was still a valuable commodity. Andrew Friedman agreed. You called him "a garbage baseball player" He finished in the 69th percentile of FIP (objectively better stat than xFIP - remember I already taught you about this? ) and 62nd peercentile of K-BB%, and you are literally trying to take a victory lab? That is funny dude.

The final thing we neeed to do is stop those racist pre-arb extentions, remember? Especially the Braves giving them to, er, Austin Riley and Spencer Strider too! How racist! Wait, hold on a second.

Your receipts are absolutely hilarious, especially when you feel like a Keuchel for JBJ swap in retrospect tells us anything. You've taken more L's than Farhan Zaidi and Gabe Kapler did against Rick Hahn and Tony freakin' La Russa in 2022. Do you ever reflect on that? The fact that a geriatric Tony La Russa strolled into San Fran, took the Giants lunch money, had Gabe helplessly deploying position players to pitch, and swept the Giants out of their own ballpark. And yet, here you are.

"Statcast OAA for infielders is completely different since the article was written, and the findings of "4 times more predictive for OF than INF" don't stand true today because of how OAA is measured and the details we have. "

Oh wow, interesting. Could you enlighten me on the updated YOY predictability? You must know because apparently my source "doesn't stand true today". I'm very interested to hear your response.

"By all accounts, statistics as well as the opinion of those in the baseball industry, Brandon Crawford was the objectively better defender, despite being 8 years older than Correa. "

So your take is that DRS for infielders is complete BS and we should disregard. Got it.


21.) 25 Nov 2022 15:24:24
"So your take is that DRS for infielders is complete BS and we should disregard. Got it. "

No, my take is that we don't use just one effing metric to value defenders.

"Oh wow, interesting. Could you enlighten me on the updated YOY predictability? You must know because apparently my source "doesn't stand true today". "

It doesn't stand true BECAUSE THE DATA IS OUTDATED. It was written before the writer had any current OAA numbers, which is a vastly different stat for infielders than it was in May 2020. Infield OAA pre-2020 was useless. There's been much written about the new OAA for infielders, most notably by Tom Tango.

Simply put, we've had OAA data for infielders since 2020, or 2.5 seasons. There's not going to be enough data to gauge YOY reliability, yet. But if you're still running with the "4x less valuable" argument, it's outdated, purely based on the data being old and absent of all the new updates to infielder OAA, which wasn't even measured until 2020.

Base your research on current data and not outdated data, and then we'll talk. Until then, the Justin Dunbar article is as relevant as polio research from the 1920s.

It's also curious that someone who tried to dismiss Keith Law & Ben Clemens, who ignored the research from guys like Tom Tango opted to use outdated research from an unknown fantasy baseball writer with 850 Twitter followers instead.


22.) 25 Nov 2022 15:28:23
Here's the funniest part of it all:

Justin Dunbar, who in May 2020 touted DRS over OAA for infielders (get ready for this) :

USES OAA TO CITE INFIELD DEFENSE IN 2022.

You seriously can't make this up.


23.) 25 Nov 2022 17:32:22
“By all accounts, statistics as well as the opinion of those in the baseball industry, Brandon Crawford was the objectively better defender, despite being 8 years older than Correa”

So if DRS likes Correa more, that would render this statement false. Why is this hard to understand? Again, you started out referencing DEF for defense, and are now trying to lecture me on defensive metrics, lol.

You have no response to your track record. Stop digging your holes deeper with stuff like this. Terrible look.


24.) 25 Nov 2022 18:43:51
So you're not going to admit you tried to pass off an obviously outdated and irrelevant article from a wannabe baseball writer (if you know poor old Justin, you might wanna tell him to work on his grammar if he aspires to be a serious writer), with information that was outdated just months after the article was written and tried to make it seem like you were the expert here?

For about the hundredth time on this here website you were caught making up stuff and you still act like you're intellectually superior to everyone around you.

And worse, when you're presented with the writings of RESPECTED baseball writers, you dismiss it. But yet, the work of Justin Dunbar (who I had to look up because I'd never heard of him) is superior.

Unless you're Justin Dunbar, it was a weird article to cite. But you held it up because it said what you wanted it to say and you clearly didn't bother looking into whether the data presented was still true to this day (hint: it wasn't) .


25.) 25 Nov 2022 18:52:45
"you started out referencing DEF for defense, and are now trying to lecture me on defensive metrics"

Isn't it crazy that in just a matter of a few minutes worth of research, I was able to figure out that you are full of it?

The irony of you telling me to "Google it" led to your entire stance re: OAA vs. DRS actually being proven false. Through Googling it, I learned a lot about OAA, and it seems, yet again, your opinion fails to meet up with that of the industry opinion.

Conveniently, you haven't addressed the fact that you used outdated research to try and prove your stance.

Word of advice: Don't BS a BSer. To quote Walter Sobchak: "You're out of your element, Donnie. "


26.) 25 Nov 2022 19:00:46
"The fact that a geriatric Tony La Russa strolled into San Fran, took the Giants lunch money, had Gabe helplessly deploying position players to pitch, and swept the Giants out of their own ballpark. And yet, here you are. "

The funny thing is: this is about the only thing the White Sox have on the Giants this year. Never mind they finished with the same record (LOL) and finished second in OBJECTIVELY the easiest division in baseball.

The Guardians clearly weren't even trying to win. The only MLB deal they signed last winter was a 3M deal with Bryan Shaw (LOL) . They won the division by 11 games, against the Los Angeles Dodgers of the American League (your terms) .

Congrats on sweeping the Giants! Your storming of the court proves you recognize their superiority over the White Sox.


27.) 25 Nov 2022 21:39:15
Lol - “yeah you may have kicked our ass, but that’s the ONLY thing you have on our baseball team! ” Alright buddy.

Big names aren’t the only ones presenting good research. Amount of Twitter followers are a poor barometer for success, if you were unaware. Dunbar presented objective data and pretty sound analysis, but you seem to care about pundits and their opinions as if that actually matters.

“Keith Law, a journalist, doesn’t like Correa at short, so i’m going to take that to the grave”.

Agree to disagree I guess, but OAA isn’t bad for infielders, it’s just not as good as DRS according to the latest research. If you’d like to provide a similar analysis with updated data, feel free. But without any tangible comparison or reasons why you are taking this stance, it doesn’t really hold any merit. Otherwise, i’d expect the same result with OAA now given it’s essentially just a range metric.

I just presented a long list of instances where you were terribly incorrect (and this was pretty much just the last 12 months), and you say i’m out of my element. That’s pretty funny, and you adding to that list is too.


28.) 27 Nov 2022 02:21:42
"If you’d like to provide a similar analysis with updated data, feel free. "

Again, since you ignored it (it's odd you continuously ignore the details that shut down your argument) : there's not enough data to determine "year over year" reliability. We've had just two full seasons of the new infield OAA on Statcast.

There's no possible way we can determine it's YOY reliability yet.

But the article you cited was written in MAY of the Year of our Lord TWO THOUSAND AND TWENTY (May 2020). We didn't even have a single instance of the new infield OAA stat being measured yet. Not a single one.

If you want to use that information to prop up your argument, the burden is on you to get up-to-date information, not me. I'm not the one making your claims.

I simply pointed out, ACCURATELY, that the data you're citing is outdated now.

Not once have you even been willing to acknowledge the fact you cited outdated information. Either a) you're not educated enough to recognize it was outdated or b) you lack the proper respect for others to trust we'd see through this BS.

Also, you presented where I was *slightly* wrong about a mediocre reliever, who Andrew Friedman refused to give a spot on his playoff roster. You can write that off all you wish, but the Dodgers aren't just leaving "above average" or even good relievers

You intentionally misrepresented my Darin Ruf argument. Those aren't a "long list of instances". It's two cases, one of which isn't even a case (as I REPEATEDLY pointed out that the scope was limited to the 2021 season) .

Meanwhile, I've thrown in for consideration your Dallas Keuchel predictions (ROFL) . Your White Sox projections (LOL), calling them the "Dodgers of the AL" (LMAOOOOO) . You gave us easily one of the top 5 worst trades on this site. You cited the projections of the Giants and having 110 wRC+ hitters (they had 3 with 250+ PAs, not one) .

At the very least, my opinions were at least somewhat seen as in line with FO decisions. The Mets made a DRASTIC overpay for Darin Ruf, and gave up a guy who hit 142 wRC+ for the Giants in 2022, as well as other pieces. Other teams saw the huge value in Darin Ruf, especially at his cost.

Then, again, the Dodgers left Craig Kimbrel off their playoff roster. You can make the argument about the guys they picked over him, but you can't deny what's right before us: they left their $16M relief pitcher, who closed most of the season's games off the roster during the most important time of the baseball calendar. They did so because Craig Kimbrel is just not very good. (If he was as excellent as you prop him up to be, the Dodgers would have found him a spot. )

Your takes were nowhere near reality. The only team that gave Dallas Keuchel more than a few starts was the Chicago White Sox (LMAOOOOO), where he sported an impressive 7.88 ERA and had as many walks as he did strikeouts in 32 innings pitched. A few teams tried him out when he was essentially free, but even after a while, baseball gave up on him.

So your arrogant stance that David Stearns would absolutely want Dallas Keuchel as his 5th Starter is even more comical than it ever seemed.

You're this site's Leury Garcia: you look like you might be kind of brilliant, but when you're actually put to the test, you prove exactly what you are to everyone: a complete and total FRAUD.


29.) 27 Nov 2022 04:25:54
I associated the White Sox with the Dodgers back in like 2020, Nathan. That analysis is outdated, per your logic.

Also, I was proposing Keuchel be dealt for a guy coming off of a -1.6 fWAR season for Pete's sake. Production-wise, they did about the same in 2022. If that's a huge judgement mistake by me for you, then I think I'm in pretty good shape. That's such a nothing-burger proposal, man.

Then, the pitcher who I defended as not being "complete garbage" has a solid season in LA (not worth $16 million, but still as I showed, top third of RPs in the league for the stuff that, you know, matters), and your "gotcha" detail is that he was left off the playoff roster of the team with the best pitching staff in the major leagues. Like, ok? Another massive score for you. Congrats.

You now, ironically, project Perry Minasian to give that "garbage" a sizable AAV heading into 2023. Interesting.

Meanwhile, you're thrown shade at K-BB% (the whole Effross, Milner, Adam comment is one of the funniest posts in hindsight that this site has ever seen. Boy, did you fall flat on your face there) and FIP as evaluation tools for pitchers while using DEF as your preferred defensive metric.

"There's no possible way we can determine it's YOY reliability yet.

But the article you cited was written in MAY of the Year of our Lord TWO THOUSAND AND TWENTY (May 2020). We didn't even have a single instance of the new infield OAA stat being measured yet. Not a single one. "

I'm sorry, but these statements are tangibly false.

Einstein - we have 7 seasons of infield OAA data. Log on to Baseball Savant and see for yourself. Since the stat is the same as it's been (for infielders and outfielders, respectively) since its debut in 2020 when Dunbar had 4 seasons of data at his disposal, we have no reason to believe that defenders have fundamentally changed over the last 2.5 seasons to warrant that analysis moot. If you have any shred of evidence to suggest otherwise, I'm all ears. Infield OAA is still not outperforming DRS, I'm sorry, and Keith Law's opinions can't save you here.

The burden of proof is on you to disprove what I am citing. That's how it works. You have brought zero evidence to the table to suggest that the research is outdated - nothing. But to be honest, there's no reason to suggest major differences because 4 years of data is solid - we're talking about the Law of Large Numbers.

Read Tango's 2020 post on OAA once or twice - it's essentially a range metric, which works great for outfielders but isn't optimized for infielders. It makes sense.

Again, when this thread started, the metrics you chose to justify a defensive claim for Crawford v. Correa were DEF (the most useless stat on FanGraphs) and UZR. Then you learned about OAA in the process of arguing, jumped ship on DEF and are now feverously defending infield OAA - but yeah, I'm the fraud here.

You're a novice with these kinds of metrics - I'm not, and that's the evident circumstance.


30.) 27 Nov 2022 11:17:35
"Einstein - we have 7 seasons of infield OAA data"

Holy F*** my dude. The Infield OAA data isn't even relevant as the entire statistic has changed since the start of the 2020 season.

"The burden of proof is on you to disprove what I am citing. "

I did, by proving, on MULTIPLE accounts, the outdated statistic you are using. The point you used is based on outdated information, therefore, it does not stand. How is that so hard for you to comprehend?

"Read Tango's 2020 post on OAA once or twice"

LMAOOOOO. I was the one who even cited Tom Tango for you. Sorry you missed that as you were stroking your faux-intellectual eggplant emoji. And he spends tons of time discussing the range factors for infielders, did you even read it? LOL.

Anyway, I had a pretty good feeling you weren't going to actually address the fact that Dunbar's data was outdated. And you're actually defending the fact that you believed Dallas Keuchel would EASILY make the Brewers rotation in 2022.

There's an old adage: a hit dog will holler. And you've been doing a lot of hollering, Benji.


31.) 27 Nov 2022 11:43:02
Speaking of K-BB%, I did some looking into it's reliability, here's a fun fact for you:

From 2019-2022, only 2 (two) relievers show up in the Top 20 for MLB relievers (20 IP minimum) for K-BB% each year: Liam Hendriks and Edwin Diaz.

There are just seven (7) others who found their way onto that list more than twice. Out of 40 spots, there are 31 unique names, meaning over the last four seasons, you have just 22.5% of your top relievers according to K-BB% repeat at least once. You have FIVE PERCENT that find their way on the list every season.

You speak a lot of year-over-year reliability, and this shows it's everything but. The threshold to make the top 20 each year doesn't change. The lowest Top 20 K-BB% during that span was 24.7%, the highest was 26.1%.

Any team trying to build a case on a reliever because he had a good K-BB% in one season is asking for trouble. It's, frankly, a useless stat when trying to determine how a reliever might do the next season, as we have almost no cases of top relievers per K-BB% continuing to be the top. (And the only ones that do are making more than $18M in 2023).

It's a nothing-burger stat. You tried to toss it into the ring to prove to me that Craig Kimbrel was somehow an elite reliever.

Also fun fact: Craig Kimbrel's name appears just one time (2021).

You also claim, "the whole Effross, Milner, Adam comment is one of the funniest posts in hindsight that this site has ever seen. Boy, did you fall flat on your face there"

Those guys' K-BB% dropped by an average of 8% from 2021 to 2022. Not a single one of them had better rates the year after. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

It was a useless stat when you tried to make it look like some "gotcha" stat, it's a uselsss stat now.


32.) 27 Nov 2022 12:28:27
And if we want to talk about horrible takes, we could deep dive into the history books with your Avisail Garcia take (ROFL), but we don't need to go that far back.

We just need to address you pointing out that the Giants were 5-6 years away from contending and that the White Sox were such a superior organization at this point in time.

History has, yet again, not been kind to your outlandish White Sox homerism. I'll prove it:

Since 2020 (I'm literally ignoring the bad year for the White Sox, since, according to you, it somehow doesn't count), here is the record for the Chicago Dodgers, I mean Chicago White Sox:

209-175 (.544). That's pretty good if I'm being honest. There's no way the Giants, who are a half-decade or more away from contending would be better than that, right? Right? RIGGHHHTT?

Since 2020, the non-contending Giants are 217-167 (.565).

Oh.

Surely it must be a fluke! They must play in an easy division with the Dodgers and Padres. They certainly don't play in a division with the Guardians, who won the division, despite their only MLB free agent signing last offseason was Bryan Shaw.

"Okay, Nate. But 2023, that's the year it'll be proven! "

ZiPS recent early projections, since you're into that kind of thing:

Chicago White Sox: 76-86.
San Francisco Giants: 83-79.

Whatever "take" you think I said that was bad, this will eternally be worse. Sometimes I feel bad for bringing this up, because it was truly that embarrassing of a take for you, and every season that passes, it becomes more laughable.

This is easily 100x worse than any Craig Kimbrel take I've made.

So keep trying to "dunk" on me with what you perceived to be bad takes. This one will be eternally worse.


33.) 27 Nov 2022 21:11:16
OAA didn’t change man, they just added it for infielders in 2020. It previously didn’t exist. You’re confused here. The metadata exists back to 2016 (and thus can be used), there was never a fundamental change to the metric, it was simply newly released for infielders.

“Those guys' K-BB% dropped by an average of 8% from 2021 to 2022. Not a single one of them had better rates the year after. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

It was a useless stat when you tried to make it look like some "gotcha" stat, it's a uselsss stat now. ”

You’re telling me that the relationship between walks and strikeouts, 2 of the core components of FIP, do not matter for RPs? At this point, you might just be a bonafide idiot, or it’s just the overwhelming cognitive dissonance (or just trolling) . The stat absolutely matters, and will matter even more now with more BIPs turning into hits with the shift ban. I’m guessing you’re in the “exit velo doesn’t matter for hitters” camp too?

Who cares if their K-BB%s dropped? They all had great seasons overall. That was my point. It’s a good way to find hidden gems, and the three you sarcastically referenced last year turned out to be really good arms. I used it as justification that Kimbrel wasn’t washed, and 2022 showed that Kimbrel wasn’t in fact washed and that it proved useful for guys like Milner, Effross, and Adam too. How funny! Just take the L, there’s no way to can spin this one (though I admire the determination to try an spin even your worst losses) .

Thanks for taking the time to show that reliever performance is fickle. Groundbreaking discovery! But if you want to predict 2023 reliever performance, K-BB% is one of the best metrics you can use, especially because pitchers have almost zero control over BABIP. I guess you’d like to leverage ERA and xFIP more? My goodness.

You’re now referencing team ZiPS projections in November (lol), the same system that I referenced when my take was that the Giants were very unlikely to be anywhere close to 2021, and you called me out for that, as if it was my personal projection and not Dan Szymborski’s projection system.

Rosters are immensely incomplete, and fact that you think the current team projection means anything proves my previous point that you don’t really understand how these projection systems work. It’s now blatantly obvious.

I don’t want to keep rubbing this in, but The White Sox dog-walked the Giants in San Francisco last year. I really don’t care about the team record comparison since 2020. Your Giants had a chance to prove themselves and they got pummeled. It’s really cut and dry. The team comparisons should stop, especially when there’s no need from you to bring it up after what took place H2H. Head-to-head matchups are the best bragging rights, i’m afraid, especially when the teams literally finished with the same record.

I’ve already conceded that I was originally too harsh on the Giants contention window, predicting that it would start in the 2024-25 range. But if they’re unable to crack the postseason again in ‘23, it’ll look even more like 2021 was a complete fluke and I wasn’t in fact that far off.


34.) 28 Nov 2022 12:59:38
"OAA didn’t change man, they just added it for infielders in 2020. It previously didn’t exist. You’re confused here"

Wait, so in May 2020, Justin Dunbar wrote about the reliability of an infield stat that didn't even exist at the time? That's the context of his point? Thank you for further proving my point about the data you presented.

"You’re now referencing team ZiPS projections in November (lol), the same system that I referenced when my take was that the Giants were very unlikely to be anywhere close to 2021, and you called me out for that, as if it was my personal projection and not Dan Szymborski’s projection system. "

I'm referencing them because you care so deeply about them and think so mightily of them. Hence why I said, "since you're into that kind of thing"

Curious how ZiPS projections are gospel truth, until it makes the White Sox a lesser team than you hoped. Of course the rosters are incomplete. It's also far more likely that the projected-83 win Giants will add more significant pieces and spend more money in FA this winter than the White Sox, who just dropped 8M on a pitcher with a 4.98 FIP (5.04 as a starter) . That ranked him the 8th worst starter with minimum 100 IP in 2022. I'm sure that'll bring them to at least 77 wins LMAO.

If you believe the White Sox will bring in more impact players than the Giants, then great.

"fact that you think the current team projection means anything proves my previous point that you don’t really understand how these projection systems work. "

From Dan's article, "These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the league’s pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. It’s hard to get where you want to go if you don’t know where you’re starting. "

Again, you sang ZiPS' praises when it made the White Sox look like a 90+ win team and the Giants a 75-win team, but now that it's reversed, "it doesn't mean anything? "

Speaking of cognitive dissonance.

And again, if you need to feel that a 3-game series is enough to prove some kind of dominance, then I assume you're willing to acknowledge the Arizona Diamondbacks as much better, as they swept your White Sox on their home field?

Because, according to your standards, " Your [White Sox] had a chance to prove themselves and they got pummeled. It’s really cut and dry. The team comparisons should stop, especially when there’s no need from you to bring it up after what took place H2H. Head-to-head matchups are the best bragging rights, i’m afraid. "

So that settles it. H2H records is all that matters. The Diamondbacks are simply better than the White Sox. Cut and dry.

Oh what's that? ZiPS has Arizona as 7 games better than the White Sox as well?

This is awkward, Albert.


35.) 28 Nov 2022 13:03:05
Hi, I'm here to translate Chi Sox's posts so you can see what he really means:

"I’ve already conceded that I was originally too harsh on the Giants contention window, predicting that it would start in the 2024-25 range. But if they’re unable to crack the postseason again in ‘23, it’ll look even more like 2021 was a complete fluke and I wasn’t in fact that far off. "

Translation: "I know I was wrong but I refuse to admit I was wrong. In fact, I'm doubling down on my wrongness despite the history on my predictions being absolutely laughable on this website. "


36.) 28 Nov 2022 15:08:26
"Wait, so in May 2020, Justin Dunbar wrote about the reliability of an infield stat that didn't even exist at the time? That's the context of his point? Thank you for further proving my point about the data you presented. "

Alright, yep, bonafide idiot or troll. Make your selection, folks. Holy hell man, infield OAA was released in January 2020 covering the 2016-2019 seasons based on the articles that YOU also referenced. Dunbar obviously couldn't analyze a metric that didn't exist, hence why he wrote the article in May. Understand now? Good grief. Put your tail between your legs and walk home, little guy.

"And again, if you need to feel that a 3-game series is enough to prove some kind of dominance, then I assume you're willing to acknowledge the Arizona Diamondbacks as much better, as they swept your White Sox on their home field? "

Hey man, If I'd been going back and forth with a Dbacks fan like this, I'd certainly keep my mouth shut about that team - though they did finish 7 games worse, so not the same premise, but again, valiant recovery effort by you here.

I really like Arizona's future outlook too - probably the third best in that division to be honest. I'd be careful.

"Again, you sang ZiPS' praises"

Referencing a certain projection system is not "singing its praises. " If you want to put any stock in the ZiPS team-level projections in November, you're entitled to do so. Knock yourself out.

Nice to se you generate yet another account to agree with you, Nate. Maybe you, "Translator", and "DavidStearnsGM" can all grab a drink sometime.


37.) 28 Nov 2022 15:58:44
"Alright, yep, bonafide idiot or troll. Make your selection, folks. Holy hell man, infield OAA was released in January 2020 covering the 2016-2019 seasons based on the articles that YOU also referenced. Dunbar obviously couldn't analyze a metric that didn't exist, hence why he wrote the article in May. Understand now? Good grief. Put your tail between your legs and walk home, little guy. "

I'm not criticizing Justin Dunbar. He wrote his article with the information he had at the time.

I'm criticizing YOU for using it, because it's obviously outdated and the point of "OAA having 4x more predictive power for OF than it does for infield" was based on pre-2020 data.

So when you try to dismiss the OAA comparison because "it's not as predictive for infielders", you're basing your dismissal on information that doesn't account for the 2020-2022 data.

It's no surprise that almost every respected baseball writer cites OAA for infielders, including Carlos Correa as they discuss his poor defensive season. Few of them cite DRS directly. But I'm sure we should just ignore all the experts and go with Chi Sox's opinion on the matter. That's what Chi Sox prefers: ignore information that hurts his argument, even if it's by guys he loves to cite when it helps his argument.

Again, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections are useless now, despite your consistent use of ZiPS to make your arguments on this site.


38.) 28 Nov 2022 16:30:23
"I'm criticizing YOU for using it, because it's obviously outdated and the point of "OAA having 4x more predictive power for OF than it does for infield" was based on pre-2020 data.

So when you try to dismiss the OAA comparison because "it's not as predictive for infielders", you're basing your dismissal on information that doesn't account for the 2020-2022 data. '

And my point like 8 replies ago, was that unless there's been a major fundamental change in how the stat has been calculated (there has not been), or a major fundamental change in how defenders defend (there has been none that I'm aware of, because OAA takes shifts in account), there's no reason to believe that the last 3 seasons of defensive data would show major holistic differences when compared to the previous 4. Again, if you'd like to bring some other evidence to the table that would suggest otherwise, be my guest. But studies can't just be labeled "old" (in any field, not just sports) after a couple years when there is no evidence of material changes.

And again, I don't care about what the Keith Law, Jim Bowden, Jon Heyman, and Bob Nightengales of the baseball industry reference when looking at defense. That's their opinions and their prerogative - I'm coming with objective data as to why using one is more effective. Still, OAA for infielders is not complete garbage like UZR (and therefore, DEF) for infielders, and I've said this numerous times too. OAA is a range metric, though, which makes it make perfect sense as to why it works a lot better for outfielders than infielders. There are a lot more variables on the infield.

So when you say "all credible stats say that Crawford is the better defender", all I'm saying is that statement is blatantly false, as data tells us that DRS is the best metric for infielders and it like Correa better. Still, you can do a lot worse than referencing infield OAA, like using DEF where you started. Just keep that in mind.

Glad we could (hopefully) put your confusions to bed.

"Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections are useless now"

Nope, don't twist my words. They're largely useless on November 28th - that's my stance.

When comparing our teams, I reference the most recent H2H matchups, and you reference November team-level ZiPS projections.

You tell me who's grasping here.


39.) 28 Nov 2022 16:37:12
And honestly, I'd put money on the fact that DRS is referenced more often than OAA in baseball blogs, regardless of position.


40.) 28 Nov 2022 17:14:52
"Nope, don't twist my words. They're largely useless on November 28th - that's my stance. "

LMAO. Again, anyone who has been on this site and read your nonsense knows exactly what your tune would be if the numbers were flipped.

"When comparing our teams, I reference the most recent H2H matchups, and you reference November team-level ZiPS projections. "

Ahhh yes. I totally forgot that a random 3-game sample means so effing much, more than, say, multiple years worth of information?

Ignore it all and look at just three games. That's it!

Also, I didn't just reference November ZiPS. I referenced their win-loss total over since 2020. I limited it to 2020, since we can't look at anything prior to that for Rick Hahn, as it doesn't count (yet, it counted that he traded Sale, Eaton, Quintana, and made other moves you bragged about) . I've referenced playoff wins. Interesting how the team that's a half-decade+ from contending has the same amount of playoff wins since 2020 as your White Sox.

Consider this, during the wide-open window of a "stacked White Sox" team, they lost more games than the Giants who were clearly rebuilding. How pathetic is that?

But ignore it all and look at a 3-game sample size.

Why should we do this? BECAUSE IT'S THE ONLY THING CHI SOX HAS.


 

 

28 Jul 2022 16:29:33
Let's make some tradez.

#1
Cardinals get: OF Juan Soto
Nationals get: 3B Nolan Gorman, 3B Jordan Walker, RHP Tink Hence, SS Masyn Winn

#2
Astros get: RHP Luis Castillo
Reds get: RHP Jose Urquidy, RHP Hunter Brown, SS Pedro Leon

#3
Mets get: C Willson Contreras
Cubs get: 3B Mark Vientos

#4
Rays get: C Sean Murphy
Athletics get: 3B Curtis Mead, 2B Vidal Brujan, RHP Seth Johnson, C Rene Pinto

#5
Giants get: OF Ian Happ, RHP Adrian Sampson
Cubs get: OF Luis Matos, C Adrian Sugastey, LHP Nick Swiney, RHP Kervin Castro

natedog

 

 

14 Mar 2022 12:23:10
Giants remaining moves:

-Sign Richard Rodriguez, 1/5.5M
-Sign Danny Duffy 1/$6M (with an $8M 2023 option, $500K buyout)
-Acquire OF Brent Rooker from Minnesota for 1B/3B Luis Toribio

Lineup
2B- La Stella
1B- Belt
SS- Crawford
LF- Wade/Rooker
DH- Ruf
3B- Longoria
RF- Yastrzemski/Slater
CF- Duggar/Slater
C- Bart/Casali

Bench
C- Bart/Casali
INF- Flores
OF- Slater
OF- Rooker

Rotation
-Webb
-Rodon
-DeSclafani
-Cobb
-Wood

Bullpen-
-Doval (R)
-Rodriguez (R)
-McGee (L)
-Rogers (R)
-Leone (R)
-Alvarez (L)
-Garcia (L)
-Littell (R)
-Carlos Martinez (R)

Note: Danny Duffy starts the season on the IL.

natedog

1.) 14 Mar 2022 13:06:07
On a second look, there are 27 guys on this roster. Until we know for sure if there will be expanded rosters to start the year, I guess Zack Littell starts in the minors.


2.) 05 Apr 2022 18:15:40
Kind of ironic you bringing up White Sox injuries when your 1, 4, and 6 hitters here are on the shelf, Nathan.


3.) 06 Apr 2022 14:01:51
Well, if all else fails, I can pull the old "bUt ThE iNjUrIeS" excuse like White Sox fans did last year (and likely will this year) .

But hey, look at your team, they are going to have Vince Velasquez start games. Good thing you've got that deep bullpen and offense. 8-0 deficits after the 3rd inning may be tough to overcome.

Wade will be back in the lineup as early as next week, and La Stella as well (he may be okay for Opening Day, at least off the bench) . And in the meantime, the Giants run Estrada/ Flores in the infield and Joc Pederson as Slater's platoon partner? That's not a bad thing.

This is what you get when you build tremendous depth all around the field.

Meanwhile, the White Sox's depth includes Vince Velasquez and Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation and Kyle Crick in the bullpen LOL.

But I look forward to the excuses when you're using Reese "Choking the Chicken" McGuire as the starting catcher by mid-May.

The Twins and Tigers got better. The White Sox have Vince Velasquez as a starting pitcher. Should be comical to watch.


4.) 06 Apr 2022 14:23:58
While we're at it, if there's ever been a fit for the White Sox, Kyle Crick is it.

Losing your season because you broke your hand fighting a teammate? Between him and Tim Anderson's violence issues, Reese McGuire's perversion, and Tony La Russa's substance-abuse issues, the White Sox sure do know how to pick 'em.


5.) 06 Apr 2022 16:55:51
The National League is terrified of the Giants infield of Flores, Crawford, Estrada and Belt.


6.) 06 Apr 2022 21:36:07
LOL. That group hit a combined 135 wRC+ and .371 wOBA, along with 78 HR (19 per hitter) on an .874 OPS.

So yeah, they probably should be. Because that's really damn good.


 

 

02 Dec 2021 04:02:57
JBJ and lesser prospects for Hunter Renfroe.

To think, the Brewers missed their chance at acquiring Dallas Keuchel and his 18M salary!

Dang. Their loss.

natedog

1.) 02 Dec 2021 15:00:09
Could have saved two pretty good prospects! Good thing Milwaukee's farm system is already elite.


2.) 02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.


 

 

 

natedog's banter posts with other poster's replies to natedog's banter posts

 

07 Aug 2022 12:20:04
"[The Giants] have ONE hitter projected to have a wRC+ over 110 (Belt) . This is tied with the Dbacks, Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, A's (LOL, great company) for the 2nd worst in baseball (only the Tigers have zero) . For reference, the White Sox and Blue Jays have 6 and the Dodgers have 7. No one else is higher than 5." -Chi Sox, before the season began.

We're over 100 games into the season, let's see how things are going with his "it's just math" prediction.

Minimum 150 PAs:

White Sox: 4 players over 110 wRC+.
Giants: 6.

Let's go with a minimum of 250 PAs:
White Sox: 4
Giants: 4.

Anyone else wanna tell Chi Sox where he should stick those projections he was using?

natedog

1.) 07 Aug 2022 22:59:32
Someone doesn't know how projections work, lol.

Well, the Giants do have 6 hitters over a 110 wRC+ and they're only, er, 22 games back! Just need to get hot!


2.) 08 Aug 2022 00:31:44
"Someone doesn't know how projections work"

Says the dude who's "projections" were so laughably wrong, for two years in a row now.

I'm not entirely sure YOU know how to make projections LOL.


3.) 08 Aug 2022 00:47:28
I'll sum it up this way: Projections are confirmed by their accuracy.

So far, your projection has not been remotely accurate, as the Giants have 6x as many hitters over 110 wRC+ than the "projection" states they would have.

When your projection holds accurate, come find me.


4.) 08 Aug 2022 05:57:30
Those are not "my projections", those are the projections that FanGraphs displays. They all said that the Giants wouldn't sniff their wins pace from last season, and here we are.

How's your projections working out? 2 egregious ones were that Jose Abreu's 2020 MVP season was a fluke (he's put up a 133 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR since then and is the 3rd best 1B in baseball this season only behind Goldschmidt and Freeman) .

Darin Ruf? He finally got a shot to get more regular ABs and sputtered to a 105 wRC+ with SF, just like I said the weak-side platoon piece would. Putting him up against Abreu was laughable.

The other was that "Craig Kimbrel is no longer a good pitcher". Well, Craig is has the 9th best FIP (2.04) and the 4th best xRV among RPs this season.

Whoops.

The Sox also have 5 hitters > 110 wRC+ even with your convenient 150 PA qualifier (Abreu, Vaughn, Robert, Burger, Anderson) and in 2022 PAs, Eloy Jimenez will be > 110 too.

Going down to a more logical 100 PA qualifier, the Sox have 7 hitter above 110, with the Giants still at 6. Nice trick there!


5.) 08 Aug 2022 14:29:58
"Going down to a more logical 100 PA qualifier, the Sox have 7 hitter above 110, with the Giants still at 6. Nice trick there! "

Wait, so you're acknowledging that the Giants have more than one hitter above 110?

Good to know LOL.

(Not to mention, it was YOUR claim. You didn't specify a minimum PA threshold. )


6.) 14 Nov 2022 04:10:43
"The other was that "Craig Kimbrel is no longer a good pitcher". Well, Craig is has the 9th best FIP (2.04) and the 4th best xRV among RPs this season. "

The Dodgers literally left him off the playoff roster LMAOOOOO.


 

 

02 Aug 2022 20:14:22
Holy Darin Ruf trade, Batman.

The Giants get a controllable MLB bat, 2 40 FV prospects, and another piece for Darin Ruf.

LOL.

Fleeced.

natedog

1.) 05 Aug 2022 16:45:29
Farhan got fleeced indeed! Ruf is an elite bat! Better than the 148 wRC+ Jose Abreu!


2.) 07 Aug 2022 11:51:36
The Mets clearly thought he was worth a controllable MLB bat, 2 40 FV prospects and another prospect on top of it all.

They should have just emulated Rick Hahn and acquired a lefty-reliever with -0.5 WAR since 2021.


3.) 07 Aug 2022 23:02:20
Darin Ruf's most recent MLB season when the Giants picked him up: -0.5 fWAR.

You can't make this stuff up, Batman.


4.) 08 Aug 2022 00:32:32
Yes, and then he went to Korea and revived his career.


5.) 08 Aug 2022 01:06:38
Darin Ruf since 2021: 3.2 WAR.

The -0.5 WAR season that you reference was 2016.

Normally, this wouldn't be that difficult, but then again, I got to realize the source.


6.) 08 Aug 2022 06:02:11
My point is that supporting the Giants and their front office's philosophies while simultaneously bashing another GM for picking up a RP with poor results but elite stuff for absolutely nothing is kind of ironic, don't ya think?


7.) 08 Aug 2022 14:18:29
My point is that when the Giants signed Darin Ruf to come back the US and play for them, Darin Ruf was good. He was one of the best hitters in Korea at the time.

When the White Sox acquired Jake Diekman, he was not good.

I didn't think this would be that difficult to comprehend.


8.) 09 Aug 2022 00:28:47
Being good in Korea doesn't guarantee anything in MLB. It's essentially AAA.

Zaidi just picked up Dixon Machado who put up average numbers in the same exact same league over the past 2 seasons. Should he be condemned for that move too?

The Sox got a guy with 70-grade stuff (who's now struck out half of the hitters he faced in a Sox uniform and has pitch quality numbers that are significantly better than his results) for an out-of-options backup catcher that they were going to DFA otherwise, and your observation is "lol, that guy sucks".

Like, alright man. You just have a passionate hate for all things White Sox, probably stemming from them ruining your 4th of July weekend.


9.) 07 Sep 2022 15:00:42
LOL. It's comical that you highlight Diekman's K numbers, but conveniently ignore the fact that he's among the worst in baseball when it comes to walking batters and giving up home runs.

As far as the trade in the OP goes, since the trade:

Darin Ruf- 29 wRC+
J. D. Dav9s- 141 wRC+

Meanwhile,

Reese McGuire- 0.7 WAR (140 wRC+)
Jake Diekman- -0.1 WAR (5.23 ERA)

Let's take it one more step:

Since the trade deadline:

Yasmani Grandal- 104 wRC+, .314 wOBA (61 PAs)
Seby Zavala- 110 wRC+. .321 wOBA (64 PAs)
Reese McGuire- 140 wRC+, .370 wOBA (66 PAs)

That catcher they were "going to DFA otherwise" would be their best offensive catcher by leaps and bounds since the deadline. They traded him for one of the worst relievers in baseball.

Your 2020 Executive of the Year Runner-Up, everyone.

But hey, it's a good thing the White Sox play in a laughingstock of a baseball division. They might have a chance to still win it! Any other division, they'd be at least 12 games back. But not the AL Central. They are just 3 games back LMAOOOO.


 

 

07 Apr 2022 14:09:47
Updated 2022 Predictions

AL East
Toronto 98-64
New York 92-70
Boston- 82-80
Tampa Bay- 81-81
Baltimore- 59-103

AL Central
Chicago- 95-67
Minnesota- 84-78
Cleveland- 76-86
Detroit- 76-86
Kansas City- 64-98

AL West
Houston- 99-63
Seattle- 92-70
Los Angeles- 89-73
Texas- 74-88
Oakland- 60-102

NL East
Atlanta 95-67
Philadelphia 86-76
New York 84-78
Miami 81-81
Washington 65-97

NL Central
Milwaukee 96-66
St. Louis 90-72
Chicago 79-83
Cincinnati 66-96
Pittsburgh 65-97

NL West
Los Angeles 99-63
San Francisco 90-72
San Diego 89-73
Colorado 65-97
Arizona 59-103

Playoffs:
AL Wild Card
(6) Los Angeles vs. (3) Chicago. LAA wins 2-1
(5) Seattle vs. (4) New York. NYY wins 2-1

NL Wild Card
(6) San Diego vs. (3) Atlanta. ATL wins 2-0.
(5) St. Louis vs. (4) San Francisco. SFG wins 2-1.

AL Divisional Series
(6) Los Angeles vs. (2) Toronto. TOR wins 4-1.
(4) New York vs. (1) Houston. HOU wins 4-0.

NL Divisional Series
(3) Atlanta vs. (2) Milwaukee. MIL wins 4-2.
(4) San Francisco vs. (1) Los Angeles. LAD wins 4-3.

AL Championship Series
(2) Toronto vs. (1) Houston. HOU wins 4-2.

NL Championship Series
(2) Milwaukee vs. (1) Los Angeles. MIL wins 4-3.

World Series
Houston vs. Milwaukee. MIL wins 4-1.

Awards
AL MVP: Luis Robert, CHW
NL MVP Mookie Betts, LAD

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, NYY
NL Cy Young: Max Fried, ATL

AL ROY: Julio Rodriguez, SEA
NL ROY: Bryson Stott, PHI

natedog

1.) 13 Jun 2022 13:22:06
Damn. Looks like I was FAR too generous toward the White Sox.


2.) 07 Jul 2022 04:59:01
Yup, you forgot to add that the White Sox would sweep the Giants right out of San Francisco, including curb stomping them on get away day.


3.) 07 Jul 2022 13:24:05
The White Sox have as many wins as the Baltimore Orioles.

But then again, I forgot about how the Orioles were the Los Angeles Dodgers of the American League!

Imagine being third in a division where the team ahead of you will struggle to stay .500 all season.


4.) 07 Jul 2022 13:28:46
A comprehensive list of the White Sox's successes this season, so far:

1. Sweeping a third place team on the road.

2. Their star SS pretending someone was racist toward him.

End of list.

Now we wait for La Russa to get behind the wheel of a car again.


5.) 07 Jul 2022 23:18:39
Hold those Ls my friend. (I know, it was a lot of them) .

Maybe pipe down on the White Sox criticism for a while - your team didn't even belong on the same field as them. By the end of it all, Kapler was helplessly deploying position players to pitch to save his already brutal bullpen. LMAO!


6.) 07 Jul 2022 23:19:12
Defending racism is apparently your thing. First Charles Johnson and now Josh Donaldson. Not a great look, but we know what to expect outta ole' Natedog at this point.


7.) 09 Jul 2022 00:07:39
I probably wouldn't criticize any manager when Tony La Russa is legitimately starting Leury Garcia and his 39 wRC+ on a nightly basis.

Just for emphasis: there were pitchers who hit better than that last year.

Again, your White Sox have LESS wins than the Baltimore Orioles at the midway point. This was the team you've deemed the "Los Angeles Dodgers of the American League" and projected to win 95 games.

They'll need to go 56-25, or .691 the rest of the way to get there. They'll need to go .567 just to win 85 games. Your Chicago "LA Dodgers" White Sox, everyone.

And to think, they also get the Royals and Tigers in that division to tee off on.


8.) 09 Jul 2022 00:18:04
And I've never once defended Charles Johnson. I've simply stated that Charles Johnson's "affiliation" with the team is literally just playing Mr. Money Bags.

His son, Greg, who is a staunch Democrat, has pointed out, multiple times, that Charles has almost no interaction with the team, its leadership, or even in decision making. He just makes the investment into the team, and that's where the relationship ends.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox KNOWINGLY hid information about TLR's DUI arrest and hired him anyway. Their next hiring option was one of the masterminds of one of the biggest cheating scandals in baseball history. Really speaks to the morals of that team: it was going to be a drunk or a cheater.

Then, you had Tim Anderson who was literally suspended to start the season due to making physical contact with an official.

Then, he calls himself Jackie Robinson, and then thinks it's racist when someone else calls him Jackie Robinson in a mocking manner (that was 100% worthy of all the mockery, just like all of your outlandish White Sox takes) .

To call that racist makes you hilariously dumb. Frankly, I'm not the least bit surprised you bought the narrative.

Calling that racist is a literal affront to the countless racist incidents that ACTUALLY exist, and if you actually care about racism (you don't), you won't be dumb to stoop to this level.

But you're not interested in defending good morals or good people. You're literally defending a team who hired a drunk (and wanted to hire a cheater) . This is the White Sox for you.

And the longer you defend this, the longer it is that you're an objectively bad person.


9.) 09 Jul 2022 00:55:14
And just for comparison's sake, let's see how reflective their performance truly is:

Record vs. Pythagorean Record:

White Sox: .488 vs. .439
Giants: .506 vs. .527

Or translated more simply: Wins vs. PythW

White Sox: 39 vs. 35
Giants: 41 vs. 43

The White Sox are actually playing BETTER than they really are, by FOUR GAMES, while the Giants are under-performing.

In fact, the White Sox 35 PythWins are right there in line with the Rockies, Cubs, Reds and Diamondbacks.

The Giants are along the same lines as the Rays, Brewers and Mariners.

So you're right, the Giants and White Sox don't deserve to be on the same field. The White Sox belong on a AAA field, as that's how they are playing.


10.) 09 Jul 2022 01:21:23
"Already brutal bullpen"

Let's explore.

Giants bullpen, as a whole: 4.29 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.6 WAR, 11 Blown Saves.

White Sox bullpen, as a whole: 4.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 13 Blown Saves.

I'm not sure the White Sox bullpen is THAT much better LMAOO.

But you've hit the point where you just say things and then hope and pray they'll be true later on. Seriously, did you bother looking at the White Sox bullpen stats?

Or is the season just that bad for you that you'd prefer not to look? I fully understand if that's the case. That window opened and shut awfully quick.


11.) 09 Jul 2022 02:38:09
I did some advanced analytics to compare the 2 teams:

Head to head matchups this year (wins) :

White Sox: 3
Giants: 0

You are big mad lol. They outscored them by 12 runs. You defend Donaldson for a blatantly racist comment and willing support Charles Johnson’s business, you can just admit you’re a little racist. Donaldson was suspended and Tim Anderson curb stomped Johnson’s sorry team, so the good guys won.

TA also didn’t call himself Jackie, he said he wanted to be a modern day Jackie in terms of bringing the game back to the black communities. He also didn’t make malicious contact with an umpire. The umpire grabbed him off of a pile of guys and he shoved him off not knowing who it was. I know you tend to not mind, but facts are important.

I just find it funny that the Sox ruined your 4th of July weekend. They showed no mercy on the fighting Charles Johnson’s.

While you’re frustrated, you may not want to compare Ruf and Abreu’s stats from this year. It’ll put you truly over the edge.


12.) 10 Jul 2022 12:33:36
Hey man, I'll let you take the W versus the Giants. That's fine.

If it means you can rest easy having a worse record than the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, and two (2) other teams in your own division mid-way through the season (one of those teams finished last in the AL Central last year), then I should probably play nice.

As far as this whole Tim "Jussie" Anderson thing is concerned: it ended in a suspension, you're right. A one game suspension. If there was "blatant racism" involved here, MLB would have dropped the hammer. They had to do SOMETHING, so they gave Donaldson a penalty that would satisfy the masses . His own teammates acknowledged it was a mistake not due to racism, but due to the history between Donaldson and Anderson that was already tense.

And for the last time, I haven't "supported" Charles Johnson and his "racism" any more than you continuously support Reinsdorf and his hiding a DUI prior to hiring TLR.

Again, THE WHITE SOX WERE EITHER HIRING A MAN WITH MULTIPLE DUIs OR THE MASTERMIND OF A MASSIVE CHEATING SCANDAL.

Those were what they narrowed it down to. Unsurprisingly, they hired the criminal.

And completely unlike the Giants, the "bad guys" in these situations have direct influence and decision-making in the team and its operations.

Charles Johnson doesn't, and hasn't for several years now. Larry Baer and Greg Johnson have taken care of that. If Charles Johnson did have a say, do you think Gabe Kapler would still have a job after his decision to not join the team for the anthem (a decision I support FWIW)? Hint: he would not. Do you think they'd hire the first Muslim president of baseball operations? Hint: they would not. Or the first woman coach? Hint: they would not.

Charles Johnson literally isn't making any decisions. He hasn't had a say in what happens with the San Francisco Giants or Franklin Resources since 2013.

For someone who wants to accuse someone of not minding the facts, you sure do love to ignore these details.

Again, for recap: the White Sox legitimately knew about La Russa's DUI arrest (not his first one) and decided to hire him anyway. Their second choice was the guy who led a team to an illegitimate WS win by using trash cans and cameras to cheat.

The Giants on the other hand, have a senile 89-year-old principal owner who isn't involved with the team in any capacity beyond his main investment who makes extremely unfortunate campaign donations.

For what it's worth, Charles Johnson hasn't put up any significant money for the Giants in over 15 years. None of their owners have needed to, as three World Series victories, owning their stadium outright (as well as high-end real estate surrounding the stadium) and the marketability of their team does the work for them.

If you think the Giants are the bad guys here, you simply aren't willing to think objectively.

Denounce Reinsdorf, Kenny Williams, Rick Hahn, and Tony La Russa, as each of them continually play a role in propping up TLR as the leader of the White Sox (Hahn had multiple chances to denounce TLR and has yet to do so, so please, spare us of the "it wasn't his decision" nonsense), and then you can proceed your hand-wringing over the objectively better baseball franchise.


13.) 10 Jul 2022 23:25:46
You seem to think that an owner can hire a coach and then a GM can proceed to denounce the hire without complete organizational turmoil. You’re completely naive. Hahn can’t reasonably denounce TLR. It would put his players in an impossible position.

All you can go off of is what’s public knowledge. We don’t need you to pretend that you’re privy to the daily conversations of Charles Johnson, and what exactly he has say over. You also apparently know how every dollar of the Giants is spent, so that’s fascinating. If Baer didn’t want to associate with Johnson, he doesn’t have to or could simply buy him out. But he clearly doesn’t care enough to make a change. If your logic is that Rick Hahn can do something about Jerry Reinsdorf (which is complete nonsense), then Larry Baer can certainly do something about his co-owner.

Them hiring minority execs and one female coach is the equivalent of a racist saying “ but I have black friends! ” He’s the principal owner of the team you support and defend on a daily basis. It’s his company. Any major decision is cleared by him because he literally has the largest stake in the team. It’s how it in everything company in the country is run. But sure, tell me how the Giants are conveniently different. Principally owner is principal owner.

Reinsdorf was wrong for hiring TLR, both for the moral & baseball reasons - but I can at least say he’s not a proud racist, no matter what his influence is in day-to-day operations.

Think about it, Nate. Donaldson could have resorted to various other digs towards TA (e. g., the Sox are sub-.500, TA was leading MLB in errors, etc. ), but we’re supposed to believe the Donaldson recounting a complete non-story from 3 years ago where TA talked about his impact on MLB as a black man didn’t have racial motivation? You’re insane if you think that.

MLB handed him a suspension to “satisfy” the masses because the masses know that Donaldson was being a racist jackass. The good guys won then too - the Sox swept a double header from the Yankees the next day & TA’s an all-star starter. Donaldson has been hated pretty much everywhere he’s been - 6 teams in 11 years is telling. You defending Donaldson here is the least surprising thing all season.


14.) 11 Jul 2022 14:06:14
Are we just conveniently ignoring the FACT that La Russa literally suggested black players should sit in the clubhouse instead of kneeling for the anthem?

Not only that, he literally went out of his way, in that Dan Le Betard interview, to attack Adam Jones for highlighting racism within baseball. He called Colin Kaepernick "insincere. "

But as you know, he's totally moved on from those antiquated stances (from 2016) and no longer believes any of it. That shift in belief certainly wouldn't be merely convenient denial because he already had enough to worry about (i. e. his DUI arrest), could it? Nah, people never hide their true feelings for the sake of their jobs?

Oh wait, you just said that Rick Hahn did! Man, Hahn didn't once speak out about how his owner railroaded him, how his owner hired a drunk as the manager, or how his new manager has public comments about black players that are extremely concerning?

He didn't say this because it was his job and he's scared of the owner? That's your defense of him? Who cares if your manager is a racist, drunk buffoon, you have a job to keep, so be quiet!

Man, it must be par for the course for leaders and team personnel to not question the owners! Oh wait, you're telling me Gabe Kapler, Farhan Zaidi and Larry Baer have all questioned Charles Johnson and made very public comments about him?

Why ever would they do that? (Probably because Johnson has no day-to-day influence and has no seat at the table for decision-making for the Giants anymore) . But I was under the impression that every person was to be as limp-wristed as Rick Hahn.

After all, ALL of baseball is trying to emulate him! (Is Ricky secretly the one telling TLR to play Leury Garcia every day? )

So all of baseball should then just sit down and shut up when their boss hires a multiple-offender DUI arrestee and a man who has deeply concerning comments in regards to minorities in baseball. After all, they all clearly want to be him!

Man, what a joke this has become.


15.) 11 Jul 2022 16:57:16
"Oh wait, you're telling me Gabe Kapler, Farhan Zaidi and Larry Baer have all questioned Charles Johnson and made very public comments about him? "

So why don't they simply get him out of there? Show me exactly where Kapler, Zaidi and the rest of the Giants ownership group called C. Johnson a proud racist. Johnson spoke on his issues, pledged to not donate, and then proceed to MAX OUT his donations to these groups that eventually helped fund January 6th. These are not "unfortunate donations", these are awful human beings. Charles Johnson owns a company that you choose to still support, Nate. He still signs all of the checks and gives his final stamp of approval on everything, or else he wouldn't be the principal owner of an MLB team. I don't care about his involvement in day-to-day baseball operations.

Now, you don't support Johnson personally (and I don't support La Russa - albeit a DUI arrest where no one was hurt is not close to Johnson's issues, but I digress), but you will bring up TLR's hire as a stain on Hahn's resume as if he had any control over that decision. It's clear that he never wanted Tony from what we can see and it's why the front office is now (likely) leaking reports to the media saying that the White Sox clubhouse is not in great shape - they want to make sure that Jerry realizes his mistake so that TLR is not back next year.

Also, many believe that it was someone in the White Sox front office that surfaced the Arizona police report to get rid of him before this even started. The team was so ready to hire Hinch that the Twitter graphic had A. J. Hinch's signature on the graphic by mistake. I would have preferred Hinch to La Russa, but I didn't like the idea of Hinch in general. But in reality, if you are going to condemn every team that has since picked up someone involved in the Astros cheating scandal, you are going to have to start condemning A LOT of teams.

You have a very naïve understanding of how any basic organizational hierarchy works. The GM can be the best baseball mind on the planet and if the owner thinks differently and is stubborn enough to not trust he people he's hired to run the baseball side (i. e., Jerry Reinsdorf), then the owner is going to get what he wants - plain and simple, and the same goes for the Giants if they were in the same circumstance. It's the same thing with every company in America, but somehow it's still "limp-wristed Rick Hahn" not doing enough. Give me a break.

"Probably because Johnson has no day-to-day influence and has no seat at the table for decision-making for the Giants anymore"

This is your perception of the Giants front office. You pretending to have an acute understanding of the Giants daily inner-workings is fun tho. Natedog, our cute little pretend Giants insider.

"He didn't say this because it was his job and he's scared of the owner? That's your defense of him? Who cares if your manager is a racist, drunk buffoon, you have a job to keep, so be quiet! "

You say this like it's false. Hahn can condemn one of the winningest owners in the history of pro sports, or he can try to put of the fire of TLR as best as possible for hopefully 2 seasons and then move on once Jerry gets the regret of firing La Russa in the 80s off his chest. It's a dumb org, but it's the reality of the situation.


16.) 28 Jul 2022 16:16:03
"This is your perception of the Giants front office. You pretending to have an acute understanding of the Giants daily inner-workings is fun tho. Natedog, our cute little pretend Giants insider. "

It's not like I'm privy to some trade secret. Johnson is 89. He's not involved in the day-to-day operations of ANY of the companies he owns. Not at Franklin Resources, nor with the San Francisco Giants. This has been pretty open info to just about anyone, and when all the dumb donations became news stories, that point was made even more clear.

"He still signs all of the checks and gives his final stamp of approval on everything, or else he wouldn't be the principal owner of an MLB team. "

No, he doesn't. Greg Johnson and Larry Baer are in charge of those things. Johnson acts as chairman for the team while Larry Baer acts as CEO. I'm sure Charles Johnson is informed on what decisions are being made, but he handed over the reins to his son years ago.

Meanwhile, the White Sox have an owner who WILLINGLY hired a manager with not one, but TWO DUI arrests on his record, and apparently runs an organization where no one is allowed to question him, or so says Chi Sox.

If Rick Hahn felt it was so bad, and he didn't like being railroaded by his owner, he should have quit and found a new job. According to your perception of him, it wouldn't have been difficult. He's a trailblazer and the greatest executive in American Sports History, so every team would have fired their guy to hire him!

And yet, he stuck around with a mediocre baseball club that employs a drunk, out-of-touch old man who is tearing at the clubhouse morale day by day.

Something tells be that either a) Rick Hahn isn't as desired of a baseball mind as you've built him up to be or b) his moral compass isn't as true north as you believe it to be. I'm actually going to go with "both", but I'm sure you'll disagree with me.

I mean, after all, how is it that so many GMs and PBOs (president of baseball ops) are able to get ownership's blessings to have final say on decisions, such as who the manager will be, but not Rick Hahn? Maybe some of that has to do with Reinsdorf, but so much of that falls on Hahn as well.

And again, Hahn's pick was A. J. Hinch. So that should tell you something about ol' Ricky's moral compass right there. He was hoping to sign the cheater.


17.) 30 Jul 2022 03:39:07
And just like that, Tim Anderson makes contact with another umpire. He simply can't help himself.

It's almost like the White Sox enjoy having low character individuals around their team. Such a modern-day "Jackie Robinson" LMAO. He's an embarrassment.


18.) 01 Aug 2022 15:33:23
Nate, just admit you're a racist and let's move on. Calling TA low-character because he got ejected for arguing a call in a baseball game is very telling. He got in an ump's face and you'd think he killed someone.

Anderson's fWAR is 14.0 since the start of 2019. That embarrassment is FIVE WINS BETTER than your team's best player over that span. LMAO.

The Sox employ guys like Tim Anderson - the guys trying to bring baseball prominence into this country's black communities. The Giants employ Aubrey Huffs for 4 years - A favorite of Charles Johnson.

The embarrassment is you my friend.


19.) 02 Aug 2022 21:17:26
The Giants won't even let Aubrey Huff inside of Oracle Park LMAOOOOOO.

Meanwhile, the White Sox just traded for a major MAGA reliever (Jake Diekman. I played Legion Ball with him in HS) and let Tony La Russa MANAGE their team.


20.) 05 Aug 2022 16:47:44
MAGA? The Giants have made Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt lifetime players, lmao. Save it. The Giants lead the league in MAGAs.


21.) 07 Aug 2022 11:56:33
Brandon Crawford is MAGA? What gives you that indication?

Jake Diekman has made no secrets to his political leanings. Nor has his wife, Former Miss Nebraska. Trust me, I'm more familiar with the Nebraska baseball scene than you'll ever be. I played with Jake Diekman. I played with Joba Chamberlain. I played against Darin Ruf and even Alex Gordon.

I can confidently tell you that Jake Diekman is closer to the awful, terrible Charles Johnson than you'd prefer.

But you're literally talking out of your you-know-where about Crawford's political leanings LOL.


22.) 07 Aug 2022 12:08:08
Now, to be completely honest, I don't care how people vote. I dropped the MAGA card because you've invested so much hand-wringing over Charles Johnson, I thought I'd inform you about the "awful person" the White Sox just acquired! (Diekman is an incredibly nice guy, for what it's worth. )

I'd reckon that MOST baseball teams have a significant amount of hardcore Republicans, especially considering the culture of baseball and where a lot of these dudes come from.

But if you want to talk about the Giants and their current (and past) stars, they have a lot of left-leaning guys. a LOT:

Yaz, Dominic Leone, Curt Casali (now traded), Brebbia, Austin Slater (whose grandfather was the mayor of Jacksonville), Logan Webb, Joc Pederson. Not to mention previous stars like Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, and Matt Cain, just to name a few.

Every team has guys from all across the political spectrum. Only an immature child is concerned about the fact that Republicans (or Democrats) exist on a team.

After all, don't the White Sox have two prominent players who are proudly anti-c.v. vax? How dare they employ people with that political affiliation!


23.) 07 Aug 2022 23:05:09
*Literally brings up that the Sox traded for a supposed right-leaning relief pitcher*

"Only an immature child is concerned about the fact that Republicans (or Democrats) exist on a team. "

Ok dude.


24.) 08 Aug 2022 14:24:31
Bruh, do you not realize it was YOU who made a big stink about Charles Johnson, a non-involved, geriatric billionaire's political leanings? You pretended like it made this massive stain on the San Francisco Giants' organization.

I was merely pointing out to you that the Chicago White Sox have a relief pitcher who has the EXACT SAME political leanings as Charles Johnson. The only difference is: Jake Diekman actually has involvement with the White Sox organization. He plays for them.

Yes, you'll have to root for him. I repeat: you are now rooting for a player who supports MAGA and QANON politicians.

I'm just trying to help you be consistent. Something you have really struggled to do around this site!


25.) 08 Aug 2022 14:26:07
And speaking of Tim Anderson. he's currently serving his THIRD suspension in 2022.

Let's perhaps quit treating him like he's some victim or pretending he's a good person. No one serves three suspensions in a season and remains a good human being.

The White Sox just love their low-character players.


26.) 08 Aug 2022 14:48:06
LOL at you being unable to see what I was pointing out.

If Charles Johnson, a senile, uninvolved billionaire's politics put a huge stain on the San Francisco Giants, doesn't Jake Diekman, who has the exact same political leanings put a huge stain on the Chicago White Sox, who already hired a criminal as their manager?

If you're seeking to be consistent, you should be upset that the White Sox would go out of their way to acquire Jake Diekman, who hasn't exactly hidden what he believes about politics. After all, it's gonna be difficult to root for the White Sox without directly rooting for Diekman's success.

That was my point. I literally don't care how people vote. But you seem very worked up over how Charles Johnson votes. So I think you should know about how Diekman votes. Because it's the exact same way as Charles Johnson.


 

 

04 Apr 2022 13:02:39
RIP to the White Sox giving up a "Top 5 RP" and future Hall of Famer for AJ Pollock, losing Lance Lynn and Garrett Crochet, all in the same day.

Can someone do a wellness check on Chi Sox? I just don't want him to become Tony La Russa or Michael Kopech all of a sudden.

natedog

1.) 05 Apr 2022 18:13:09
Gotta give Hahn credit for netting a guy coming off a 137 wRC+ season for a "completely washed" (according to you) RP like Kimbrel.

But let me guess, Kimbrel is good now? One of the top orgs in baseball just dealt for him. The Sox ate none of his contract and saved $ in the process.

Masterclass.

Glad you're still constantly thinking about me, Nathan.


2.) 05 Apr 2022 18:31:45
"The White Sox will have to attach a pretty intriguing prospect just to clear the salary. "

"The White Sox gave up Heuer and Madrigal for Kimbrel AND picked up his $16M option. But here you are, thinking the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers! LOLOLOLOL. "

"If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention. "

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it. "

"Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys. "

Safe to say these all aged pretty poorly for ole Natedog. Like clockwork.


3.) 06 Apr 2022 14:06:16
I was just making sure that you didn't quit this site like Michael Kopech quit 2020. So I'm glad you're okay.

And for what it's worth, the White Sox, impressively, won that trade. If Pollock can stay healthy (that's a big IF) getting him while unloading Craig Kimbrel, who gave up 7 runs to AAA players in Spring, will look really good.

Sure, it puts Kyle Crick in the Sox's bullpen instead of Kimbrel, but then again, I think that's probably a wash.

In the meantime, enjoy running on the gloating tour. It might be the only positive experience of your baseball season. The fun will likely end when Darin Ruf has a better season than Jose Abreu for a second season in a row.


4.) 06 Apr 2022 15:50:21
While we're at it, I LOL'd today looking back at your lengthy predictions. 8 for 84, a solid 9.5%.

Meanwhile, I got 12 just in the top 50 alone and sit proudly in MLBTR's top 25.

Or do you want me to bring up the trade where the D'Backs get Justin Upton and his 28M salary while the White Sox shed Keuchel's salary AND get Ketel Marte?

Good news for the Diamondbacks: they can just get their mans without giving up Marte!

You seem to gloat here, but you ignore how hilariously terrible some of the trades you've made on here were. And to think, you spent MULTIPLE comments defending that awful idea.

Also, if we want to talk about things that aged well, can your infamous "the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers" take count here? I think it absolutely should.

Or what about the fact that the Giants were 5-6 years away from contention (they led the league in wins last season, and had 103 pythagorean wins, but you don't need reminded of this)? Or where you said Zaidi would be lucky to accomplish 75% of what Hahn has done.

In just three years, the Giants have more wins than the "on-par-with-the-Dodgers" White Sox. Yes, the team 5-6 years away from contention has more wins during Zaidi's tenure, a rebuilding club, than the Chi Sox-proclaimed "preeminent AL club. "

He's done this while bringing up exactly one top prospect: Logan Webb. He'll add another with Joey Bart, and the young players will just keep coming.

Yes, he won 13 more games in 3 seasons than Rick Hahn's Dodgers, ahem, White Sox, with a lineup containing Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Darin Ruf, Donovan Solano, and finding nobodies like Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade, Jr.

In just 3 years into his tenure, Farhan Zaidi has the Giants contending for WS titles and his most expensive FA signing was Carlos Rodon on a 2-year deal.

But please, remind me of your take about Zaidi? For good measure, I'll help you out: The Giants are multiple years away from contention.

How'd that prediction go? It went poorly. It was the worst-aged prediction I've seen on this here website. And the bar was pretty high, especially out of the content you have graced us with.


5.) 06 Apr 2022 16:34:43
You were just as high on the 2021 Giants as I was, Nathan. This is not a victory lap for you, bud.

I already conceded that I underestimated how quickly they could turn around their team. No one expected them to get career years from their entire team last year.

We'll see if they can do that again, but it's a very good org top to bottom.

Also, if Crick and Velasquez were signed by SF, you'd be telling me to stay tuned for their breakout. Crick gave up 1 hit and 2 walks in 7 innings this spring. They're low risk dart throws with high upside, and you're acting like it's a bad thing?

Finally, I, for one, am extremely excited for Dain Ruf's 2022 MVP campaign to commence now that he should see more regular ABs in 2022.


6.) 07 Apr 2022 13:05:11
"You were just as high on the 2021 Giants as I was, Nathan. This is not a victory lap for you, bud. "

Not that I expect you to own up to the most impressively inaccurate take this website has ever seen, but maybe at least don't acknowledge the point if you refuse to own it?

We're not talking our predictions on the '21 Giants. We're talking about your level of confidence regarding the Giants. That they were a half-decade from contending. That they'd be lucky to accomplish 75% of what Rick Hahn has done (never mind them exceeding it already) .

Just acknowledge how hilariously bad your take on the Giants was. It's really simple.


7.) 07 Apr 2022 15:21:10
Surely they won a playoff series last season with how much better they've done.


8.) 07 Apr 2022 17:21:03
Yes, because Rick Hahn's White Sox teams have done so well in that department.

Let that sink in: the guy whose success Farhan would be lucky to accomplish even 75% of hasn't made it once out of the first round, despite being the GM everyone is clearly trying to emulate.

And ironically, in 3 years, Farhan has matched Rick Hahn's career playoff win totals. Absolutely remarkable how that works.


9.) 08 Apr 2022 00:10:31
I said: "I already conceded that I underestimated how quickly they could turn around their team. "

Then you said "Just acknowledge how hilariously bad your take on the Giants was. "

Make it make sense

Zaidi still hasn't built a sustainable roster in SF yet however. He has to prove that last year wasn't a flash in the pan. They replaced Posey with Bart and Bryant with Pederson. Not great for the lineup.

Belt, Crawford and Longoria may not have career years again. It's actually extremely likely that they don't. They really don't have a single game changing hitter in their lineup (No, Darin Ruf doesn't count) . They have ONE hitter projected to have a wRC+ over 110 (Belt) . This is tied with the Dbacks, Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, A's (LOL, great company) for the 2nd worst in baseball (only the Tigers have zero) . For reference, the White Sox and Blue Jays have 6 and the Dodgers have 7. No one else is higher than 5. We're talking about two massively different tiers here based on the best projections available. The Giants could legitimately have one hitter slug over .450.

And before you ho-hum projections in general, it's literally math my man. No need to get upset.

Their biggest FA signing has only pitched 173 innings over the last THREE seasons with a history of recurring shoulder and elbow issues. Acting like Zaidi has the same kind of roster as Hahn in Chicago is laughable. Zaidi deserves credit for piecing together last year's masterpiece, but acting like they are going to stroll to 90 wins again isn't wise IMO, but we're allowed to give him the benefit of the doubt after last year.


10.) 18 Apr 2022 15:15:56
"And before you ho-hum projections in general, it's literally math my man. No need to get upset. "

No, it's theory. And considering the projections were wrong at nearly every projection for the Giants in 2021, maybe they aren't as accurate as you're suggesting?

I mean, ZiPS was off by 30+ wins. They were 2.0 or more WAR UNDER on Crawford, Posey, Ruf, Webb, Gausman, DeSclafani, and Duggar and 1.5 WAR UNDER on Wade and Belt. That's 9 players. The next team to have that many misses for ZiPS was 5, and it was the Brewers.

For what it's worth, just two (2) players had projections 1.0 WAR or more OVER their actual performance: Yastrzemski and Dubon. That's also the lowest amount of any team last year.

So excuse me when I look at ZiPS projections and see the same make similar ZiPS projections two seasons in a row on the same players. But surely, ZiPS is gospel truth that can't be disputed, now can it?

Surely they weren't so historically off that Dan Szymborski should be laughed out of any room he walks into, right?

MLB front offices are clearly rejecting these projection systems, and it's evidenced by how they are spending their money and the roster decisions they are making. Maybe it's time that fans do as well?


11.) 18 Apr 2022 16:04:02
"They have ONE hitter projected to have a wRC+ over 110"

Ahh yes. The team that had EIGHT (8) from last year and brought back 6 of those players, they'll have just TWO in 2022?

Seriously, do you even bother looking up anything before you type it, or do you just run with it because it sounds good? And if you still, after all these years, think that ZiPS is a remotely decent projection system, especially after they were so historically off in 2021 for one team in particular that it was almost contemptuous, I really don't have much belief you'll continue to operate in good faith in these discussions.

No front office in baseball is even the slightest bit focused on ZiPS or any of the publicly available projection systems. In fact, I'd contend, simply by the way they operate, that teams have written off Szymborski's system altogether.


12.) 21 Apr 2022 06:15:43
Could you show me where I said I was referencing ZiPS?


13.) 19 May 2022 14:14:18
Nearly a quarter way through the season, let's check in on how things are going:

White Sox players over 110 wRC+ (min. 50 PAs) : 3.
Giants players over 110 wRC+: 7.

I was so confidently told that it was "just math". Your math sure seems to be wrong an awful lot, now doesn't it?


 

 

16 Mar 2022 02:23:19
Projected MLB Standings:

AL East
Toronto- 93-69
Tampa Bay- 89-73
New York- 87-75
Boston- 81-81
Baltimore- 60-102

AL Central
Chicago- 90-72
Cleveland- 82-80
Detroit- 79-83
Minnesota- 75-87
Kansas City- 72-90

AL West
Houston- 92-70
Seattle 89-73
Los Angeles- 88-74
Texs- 77-85
Oakland- 61-101

NL East
New York- 94-68
Atlanta- 87-75
Philadelphia- 79-83
Miami- 75-87
Washington- 70-92

NL Central
St. Louis- 97-65
Milwaukee- 93-69
Chicago- 77-85
Cincinnati- 70-92
Pittsburgh- 58-104

NL West
Los Angeles- 99-63
San Francisco- 90-72
San Diego- 84-78
Colorado-74-88
Arizona- 68-94

natedog

 

 

 

natedog's rumour replies

 

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30 Nov 2022 13:07:30
Jesus, that should say a full run LOWER. Martin's FIP will be a full run lower. Clevinger's will be the higher FIP.

natedog

 

 

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29 Nov 2022 13:45:31
I would bet good money Clevinger will have a FIP north of 4. He's simply not a $12M pitcher and I will LOL so hard when he is both not very good AND becomes a reason why the clubhouse falls apart, as he did in San Diego.

There were countless pitchers that both had better numbers and likely better outlooks for 2023 than Clevinger, none of whom would cost $12M in 2023.

Unless Reinsdorf is suddenly willing to spend like crazy (he won't), this was a severe waste of the teams' resources.

Here's a bet I'm even more willing to make: Davis Martin will have a better season, including FIP that is a full run higher than Clevinger's, and I don't particularly believe Martin is good.

natedog

 

 

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29 Nov 2022 02:03:18
The 2020 Sporting News Executive of the Year RUNNER UP Rick Hahn just gave $12M to a pitcher who was equal to Erick Fedde, or lesser than at worst.

In the words of Elon Musk: Let that sink in.

Then again, he's the same guy who gave Dallas Keuchel $55M, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

natedog

 

 

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28 Nov 2022 17:29:29
Scratch that, it's a 12M guarantee, not 8M. That's a comical overpay.

natedog

 

 

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28 Nov 2022 17:14:52
"Nope, don't twist my words. They're largely useless on November 28th - that's my stance. "

LMAO. Again, anyone who has been on this site and read your nonsense knows exactly what your tune would be if the numbers were flipped.

"When comparing our teams, I reference the most recent H2H matchups, and you reference November team-level ZiPS projections. "

Ahhh yes. I totally forgot that a random 3-game sample means so effing much, more than, say, multiple years worth of information?

Ignore it all and look at just three games. That's it!

Also, I didn't just reference November ZiPS. I referenced their win-loss total over since 2020. I limited it to 2020, since we can't look at anything prior to that for Rick Hahn, as it doesn't count (yet, it counted that he traded Sale, Eaton, Quintana, and made other moves you bragged about) . I've referenced playoff wins. Interesting how the team that's a half-decade+ from contending has the same amount of playoff wins since 2020 as your White Sox.

Consider this, during the wide-open window of a "stacked White Sox" team, they lost more games than the Giants who were clearly rebuilding. How pathetic is that?

But ignore it all and look at a 3-game sample size.

Why should we do this? BECAUSE IT'S THE ONLY THING CHI SOX HAS.

natedog

 

 

 

natedog's banter replies

 

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14 Nov 2022 04:10:43
"The other was that "Craig Kimbrel is no longer a good pitcher". Well, Craig is has the 9th best FIP (2.04) and the 4th best xRV among RPs this season. "

The Dodgers literally left him off the playoff roster LMAOOOOO.

natedog

 

 

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07 Sep 2022 15:00:42
LOL. It's comical that you highlight Diekman's K numbers, but conveniently ignore the fact that he's among the worst in baseball when it comes to walking batters and giving up home runs.

As far as the trade in the OP goes, since the trade:

Darin Ruf- 29 wRC+
J. D. Dav9s- 141 wRC+

Meanwhile,

Reese McGuire- 0.7 WAR (140 wRC+)
Jake Diekman- -0.1 WAR (5.23 ERA)

Let's take it one more step:

Since the trade deadline:

Yasmani Grandal- 104 wRC+, .314 wOBA (61 PAs)
Seby Zavala- 110 wRC+. .321 wOBA (64 PAs)
Reese McGuire- 140 wRC+, .370 wOBA (66 PAs)

That catcher they were "going to DFA otherwise" would be their best offensive catcher by leaps and bounds since the deadline. They traded him for one of the worst relievers in baseball.

Your 2020 Executive of the Year Runner-Up, everyone.

But hey, it's a good thing the White Sox play in a laughingstock of a baseball division. They might have a chance to still win it! Any other division, they'd be at least 12 games back. But not the AL Central. They are just 3 games back LMAOOOO.

natedog

 

 

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08 Aug 2022 14:48:06
LOL at you being unable to see what I was pointing out.

If Charles Johnson, a senile, uninvolved billionaire's politics put a huge stain on the San Francisco Giants, doesn't Jake Diekman, who has the exact same political leanings put a huge stain on the Chicago White Sox, who already hired a criminal as their manager?

If you're seeking to be consistent, you should be upset that the White Sox would go out of their way to acquire Jake Diekman, who hasn't exactly hidden what he believes about politics. After all, it's gonna be difficult to root for the White Sox without directly rooting for Diekman's success.

That was my point. I literally don't care how people vote. But you seem very worked up over how Charles Johnson votes. So I think you should know about how Diekman votes. Because it's the exact same way as Charles Johnson.

natedog

 

 

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08 Aug 2022 14:29:58
"Going down to a more logical 100 PA qualifier, the Sox have 7 hitter above 110, with the Giants still at 6. Nice trick there! "

Wait, so you're acknowledging that the Giants have more than one hitter above 110?

Good to know LOL.

(Not to mention, it was YOUR claim. You didn't specify a minimum PA threshold. )

natedog

 

 

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08 Aug 2022 14:26:07
And speaking of Tim Anderson. he's currently serving his THIRD suspension in 2022.

Let's perhaps quit treating him like he's some victim or pretending he's a good person. No one serves three suspensions in a season and remains a good human being.

The White Sox just love their low-character players.

natedog