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11 Mar 2021 23:41:21
Some late Spring Training moves before the season begins:

Free Agent Signings

C Tyler Flowers- Yankees, 1/2.5
3B Maikel Franco- Orioles, 1/3.5
RHP Shane Greene- Angels, 1/4
LHP Cole Hamels- Cardinals 1/7.5
RHP Rick Porcello- Cubs 1/3.75

Trades

Diamondbacks get: 1B/OF Joey Gallo Rangers get: OF Slade Cecchoni & 1B Seth Beer

Reds get: SS Niko Goodrum
Tigers get: OF Aristides Aquino, C Eric Yang

Braves get: 3B Joey Wendle
Rays get: RHP Viktor Vodnik, RHP Freddy Tarnok, 3B Johan Camargo

Out-of-Option moves

1B Dan Vogelbach (MIL)- traded to White Sox

RHP Taylor Williams (SD)- traded to Baltimore

1B/OF Jose Marmolejos (SEA)- traded to Cubs

RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon (STL)- traded to Arizona

OF Brett Phillips (TB) traded to Oakland

natedog

1.) 16 Mar 2021 18:46:42
Not sure how Vogelbach makes sense for CHW. Collins, Mercedes and Vaughn (even if they manipulate service time for 2 weeks) would be redundant. Not to mention Eloy Jimenez's outlook.

Gallo making sense for Arizona?

Seems like a lot for Wendle (who I actually really like as a player), but I may be higher on Tarnok and Vodnik than you and/ or most.

Signings look good.


2.) 17 Mar 2021 11:56:35
I think it's more of a backup plan in the event they don't like their options. They have plenty of options, but Vogelbach would give them a fairly risk-free play. You don't have to worry about service time, he's minimal cost, and you can cut him when you need another spot.

I like Wendle a lot as well. But the Rays have an embarrassment of riches, and getting some pretty solid value for him would be a good idea to both save money and play the younger studs.


 

 

08 Dec 2020 07:45:43
Let's bail some teams out of big contracts.

#1
Blue Jays get: Nolan Arenado, Jon Gray
Rockies get: Randal Grichuk, Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah, Trent Thornton.

Saves Rockies $175M (21M in 2021).

#2
Twins get: Sonny Gray
Reds get: Jhoan Duran, Keoni Cavaco, Matt Cantetino

Saves Reds 20M (10.2M in 2021)

#3
Nationals get: Kris Bryant
Cubs get: Joe Ross, Drew Mendoza, Mason Denaburg

Saves Cubs: ~17.1M

#4
Angels get: Yu Darvish
Cubs get: Jordyn Adams, Chris Rodriguez, Taylor Ward

Saves Cubs: 60M (21.5M in 2021)

#5
Marlins get: Francisco Lindor
Indians get: JJ Bleday, Monte Harrison, Jon Berti

Saves Indians: ~18.5M

natedog

1.) 08 Dec 2020 17:19:23
No from Indians although Miami is supposed to be a wild card entry for Lindor and certainly would put butts in seats. Two unproven Of's and a Utility INF won't get it done. Believe the Tribe will want at least a ML proven OF with some pop.


2.) 08 Dec 2020 17:24:33
As a Jays fan, I would love this. But the price will be much higher to get those two.


3.) 08 Dec 2020 17:24:59
Replace Berti the 30 YOA utilty INF with perhaps Jazz Chisholm and it would be getting warmer and a little more acceptable.


4.) 08 Dec 2020 18:20:02
The "cash cow" in the Lindor trade would be Bleday, who is a top 25 prospect, 23, and very close to MLB ready.

Frankly, between Berti and Chisholm, if I'm Miami, I'm far more worried about losing Berti. Berti's production is a lot more challenging to produce at the cost (they'll need a 2B regardless) than Chisholm's.

Chisholm-type players haven't exactly had stellar track records transitioning from the minors to the majors. Berti, while 31, is much more of a reliable player. I'd wager he'll produce DOUBLE the wins in the next three (3) seasons than Chisholm will in the next six (6).

But the extra pieces can be discussed as you wish, the point was to get Bleday, who can hit the #### off the ball, to Cleveland.


5.) 08 Dec 2020 18:23:20
Minnow, I'm not sure I agree.

Arenado's trade value will be difficult because he's either a rental or an albatross.

It's far less likely, considering the financial state, that Arenado opts out. So a team is probably stuck with contract into his declining years. Obviously, Colorado's FO is among the worst in baseball, so they might give him up for much less, but if they don't like Kirk and Manoah, then I'm not sure they'll have a reasonable view of a trade.

To be fair, I think Toronto may be paying a bit much for Arenado and a year of Jon Gray.


6.) 08 Dec 2020 18:31:07
I'm not sure what "proven OF with pop" you think a team will just hand over for a year of Francisco Lindor.

Lindor is spectacular, don't get me wrong, but OF with pop, and ones with years of control, aren't a dime a dozen in the majors. And teams, rightly, loathe giving them up for anything, let alone a rental SS who is coming off a season where there several concerning signs about a decline. These weren't "regression" issues, mind you.

Add in the financial state of the game, who is going to give up a young, MLB OF with 5-6 years of control, plus several prospects, for a SS set to make ~20M next season?

If the Indians can get a JJ Bleday for Lindor, they should accept it almost immediately.


7.) 09 Dec 2020 10:24:18
I think it's almost certain that he won't opt out because he won't be getting 35 mil per year anywhere else but I do think the Rockies will want a top prospect in return for those two.

Jays might be a little nervous, they went down this road with Tulowitzki a few years back and he was a bust.


8.) 09 Dec 2020 15:31:14
So, if he doesn't opt out, we're talking 6 years, 200M. That's a lot of money that takes him into his age 35 season.

For what it's worth, the trade I have above gives up a 50 FV prospect (Kirk) and a 45+ prospect (Manoah) .

That's over 16 years of team control, plus three years of Grichuk for Arenado and his massive contract. I think the Blue Jays are giving up more than they should for Arenado, but I think it's a necessary move for them if they want to compete in the AL East.


 

 

02 Dec 2020 08:45:22
Let me extend an olive branch to Chi Sox, publicly.

We've had some pretty extreme conversations on here. I'll be honest, I enjoy them. I enjoy getting you worked up, and enjoy seeing the wild takes you'll make to justify an opinion, even when it's clear I'm messing with you. But I've also learned a lot from you and genuinely enjoy talking baseball. If I didn't enjoy these convos, I wouldn't engage in them.

However, it seems that we've reached a point in which it has become juvenile, obnoxious, and frankly, ridiculous. I play as much a role in it as you.

We're both passionate about our teams, and it's clear we both have strong opinions. That's perfectly okay. It's baseball. It's a game made for the fans, to be fans.

But we need to both agree, publicly, not to continue the ridiculous behavior here. No more making posts directly, or indirectly calling out the other over a difference of opinion.

No more personal shots or calling out one's character. No more shots below the belt.

Let's agree to disagree on the White Sox and Giants. If we can't do that, then at least agree to leave the other alone.

It's really time we move on, quit being childish, and enjoy baseball.

Agree?

natedog

 

 

24 Nov 2020 14:32:42
Some trades for y'all to downvote:

Trade #1
Giants get: Blake Snell
Rays get: Joey Bart

Explanation: The Giants need, and said they will absolutely target SP. Considering they have Posey at C, and Patrick Bailey (who was a Zaidi pick), would they trade Joey Bart (not a Zaidi pick) for a really, really good lefty?

The Rays getting an MLB ready catcher (and a top 15 prospect) for Snell would be a huge get.

Trade #2
Dodgers get: Josh Hader
Brewers get: Edwin Rios, Jacob Amaya, Andy Pages

Explanation: Edwin Rios is very, very good. He's super underrated, and the Brewers need corner infield help badly. Rios fits that need. He'll hit 30 HRs in Milwaukee, easily.

Trade #3
White Sox get: Lance Lynn
Rangers get: Danny Mendick, Micker Adolfo, Bryce Bush, Andrew Dalquist

Explanation: Lynn is pretty underrated as far as pitchers go. He'd make a lot of sense for Chicago. Chicago gives up a lot of potential here, but it's also not a lot of high impact players, but it gives the Rangers a lot to work with.

#4
Diamondbacks get: Benintendi
Red Sox get: Jon Duplantier, Stuart Fairchild, Josh Rojas

Explanation: Mike Hazen gets one of his guys back from Boston, and the Red Sox get a lot of pieces they can use almost immediately. Duplantier would be the cash cow here for Boston. Cheap, controllable SP to work with.

natedog

1.) 24 Nov 2020 18:27:04
Trade # 1: An additional prospect would be needed from the SF Giants. someone like Blake Rivera who is an upside SP prospect with quite a bit of development in front of him. but, with a ceiling that says he could become something.

Trade # 2: Is a poor return for one of the best closers in MLB. Rios is a needed player and should remain as part of the deal. but, more is needed.

Trade # 3: Quantity over Quality. the CWSox would say YES to this deal almost without thinking. from the Ranger's perspective. Danny Mendick is just like six other utility guys they have. Adolfo showing he's back to being healthy is unknown. Dahlquist is so young, the Rangers won't know what they're getting. etc If the CWSox were to add someone like Jake Burger (who's blocked and will remain blocked by Yoan Moncada) . this could be a fairer deal.

Trade # 4: Benintendi needs to stay in Boston. The very poor results from 2020 *SSS, and reduced output in 2019. looks more like a salary dump than a "eureka" for the DBax. DBax should pass on this short term guy. nothing fixes this deal.

Thoughts? .


2.) 24 Nov 2020 18:50:16
1. The Giants could give up a lesser prospect. I think it's closer to fair, considering the Rays are getting a top 15 prospect, who is also an MLB-ready catcher for a guy with three years before free agency. But I could see the Giants adding in someone like Rivera.

2. I disagree. Hader is coming off a pretty bad season, regardless of how short is was. He had a high xFIP on an unsustainably low BABIP. That's a bad combo. Obviously if they are offered more, they should take it. But they'll be lucky to even get JUST Rios for him, let alone other pieces.

3. The Rangers would serve better to get quantity, especially a couple of guys who are MLB-ready and controllable. Lynn also only has a year remaining, so getting great value from a rental that isn't an elite pitcher is probably not going to happen.

4. Boston likes Benintendi. He's a good fit there. This was more of a trade to get a guy Mike Hazen has spoken very highly of. And it wouldn't cost them much. Duplantier isn't going to start in Arizona. He'd be a good pickup for Boston in exchange for a depressed value player. Arizona can give him the benefit of a hitters park.

Good thoughts all around.


3.) 25 Nov 2020 04:11:31
FWIW, Lynn has the 8th highest fWAR of any pitcher over the last 3 seasons. He is a very good 1 year rental option.


4.) 25 Nov 2020 13:52:48
I agree he's a very good rental option. I just don't know if the Rangers are going to get an elite prospect in return for him.

Getting a lot of high-upside pieces in a fairly weak farm system would be ideal for Texas.


5.) 25 Nov 2020 16:23:02
The Giants trading young talent for a guy that is signed for the next 3 seasons where the Giants won't be contending for at least 2/ 3rds of that deal doesn't seem like a wise path to me. I guess if butts in seats is the goal it's fine.

I also don't think Bart for Snell 1:1 is what they Rays would be looking for. Bart was unfairly rushed by the Giants and he needs more seasoning in the minors. I think the Rays would prefer a prospect that can better impact their 2021 team, something the Giants can't exactly offer.

If they neglect that last point, I think the Rays would insist on Luciano + Corry + 2 others.


6.) 25 Nov 2020 16:50:39
For what it's worth, I reached to multiple authors at Baseball Prospectus with my idea, using the handy Google Email application. Most didn't respond (as I expected) . One did respond. Here's what they told me:

"Interesting idea, Nate! As it stands now, no. It doesn't make sense. But if the Giants could land someone like Trevor Bauer, it makes every bit of sense. The Rays would want Bart for the future, the Giants build a very solid rotation. "

I'm not going twenty rounds with you on this. The Giants aren't trading Luciano, and if they do, it's certainly not going to be for Blake Snell. If Bobby Evans were around, they absolutely would have.

Luciano is that guy most teams have: an elite prospect whose potential is just too much to give away. Think of guys like Torres, Robert, Acuna, Soto, Franco. You don't give away prospects like that. Luciano is that prospect for the Giants. I don't see him being dealt in any scenario, for anything short of a Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson package. (It's exaggerated, but you get the point. I think. )


7.) 29 Nov 2020 05:02:36
The the advice from you're buddy at BP! - "As it stands now, no. It doesn't make sense. "

Word of the wise.


8.) 29 Nov 2020 12:20:02
Your entire Snell trade was based around the notion that the White Sox have to also get Springer to make it make sense.

FWIW, Springer, like most elite free agents, isn't going to play for La Russa. So, I guess at the very least, you can go to the attic and dig up your old Adam Eaton White Sox jersey.


9.) 29 Nov 2020 20:29:51
"Your entire Snell trade was based around the notion that the White Sox have to also get Springer to make it make sense. "

Nope, not true. It just makes sense.

Also, money talks my friend.


10.) 30 Nov 2020 13:45:18
Yes, it's true. It's almost exactly what you said. Your own quote:

"I think 8 combined seasons of Snell + Springer would outperform 11 seasons of Vaughn + Kopech"

Do you need reminded that the White Sox don't currently have George Springer? So, yeah, in order for "8 seasons of Snell + Springer" to outperform 11 seasons of Vaughn + Kopech", you kind of need George Springer for that to be the case.


11.) 30 Nov 2020 13:48:41
And for what it's worth, I'll give you a bit of credit. Eno Sarris of The Athletic made the Vaughn + Kopech + Stiever trade idea for Snell. So you that was good.

However, if you're a fan of Andrew Vaughn, I absolutely wouldn't read the article, as Eno Sarris basically downplays the talent of Vaughn in no uncertain terms.

Some gemz:

"Vaughn currently has a below-replacement projection next to his name. "

"Vaughn has his supporters, but his subpar slugging numbers, and the fact that the White Sox didn’t share alternate site data from the 2020 season, means the Rays would be acting on faith if they trade for him"

And finally,

"To wit; every other centerpiece here is projected to be league average or better, "

Sarris doesn't believe that either Vaughn or Kopech will be league average. I'd more than certainly believe other experts feel the same way.

As will the Tampa Bay Rays. Ouch.


12.) 30 Nov 2020 16:25:41
First off all - my Snell proposal was in no way contingent on them signing Springer. My rationale was that since there were rumors of Sox interest in Springer and their expected (relatively) high-spending propensity this offseason, trading for Snell first and addressing their more pressing need (a SP) would make a Springer signing make a lot more sense. This is given the need aspect, but also the financials. Getting Snell for less than $11 million in 2021 gives you a better ability to spend $20+ million AAV on a RFer, a less pressing need.

Even without Springer, acquiring Snell and the surplus value he carries is obviously a plus.

Next, I really like Eno, but this seems like a weird argument. Vaughn would have a below league average projection on a system projecting off of his high-A numbers. He'd have to have like a 200 wRC+ in Winston-Salem for Depth Charts, Steamer, or whatever system you like, to project Vaughn as above average in 2021. It's not building in the context of the C. V. Also, the White Sox would share their alternate site data with the Rays in Blake Snell negotiations -- they just didn't at the 2020 deadline when all they were looking to acquire was the likes of Jarrod Dyson and Yolmer Sanchez -- there was just no need. It's evident why the projection systems *currently* don't like Vaughn, and this is not to downplay their functionality entirely, but no one in their right mind believes that Andrew Vaughn projects in the major leagues as below replacement level.

"as Eno Sarris basically downplays the talent of Vaughn" -- "Sarris doesn't believe that either Vaughn or Kopech will be league average. "

These are absolutely untrue statements. You're now not only twisting my words, but the words of Eno Sarris. No worries, I'll assist with some comprehension.

Sarris is not going against every reputable site and scout that has him in the top-20 prospects in baseball. He's saying there's uncertainty with Vaughn given that we are only looking at 250 PAs in A-ball from literally his draft year, which some evaluators consider a wash anyway.

Even with Vaughn's great projectablility as a top prospect, this uncertainty and the position he plays warrants the inclusion of Kopech, which is exactly the point I made initially -- but I was told this was a huge overpay by people including Nate.

"The Rays would be acting on faith if they trade for him"

To a certain extent, every team that ever trades for a prospect is acting on faith - faith in their scouts, data analysts, player development systems and projection models that each prospect will in fact turn out.

Again, Eno is one of my favorite writers in the industry, but I don't necessarily agree with his outlook on Vaughn and that's fine, or at lease how he's portraying his outlook. I think we share the opinion on relatively what it would take to acquire Snell, although Stiever as the third piece is a little rich for my taste. What you should notice is that there's no Joey Bart straight up for a top-20 pitcher in baseball that's owed $39 million over 3 years deal in here. Again, Eno understands the leverage that the Rays would have in these talks, and that's reflected in all 5 of his trades from that piece. This is one of many things I was trying to get you to understand, Nate.


13.) 30 Nov 2020 17:45:59
Right, why would they give up Jonathan Stiever when they get Brandon Nimmo for him, amirite?

As for him not including Joey Bart, I'd imagine if he pulled a Bleacher Report-style article and included a deal from every team, the Giants' offer would be something like Joey Bart, Alexander Canario, and Logan Webb.

Also, the funny thing about that White Sox trade, it matched literally ZERO of the criteria he put forth in his intro:

"Any centerpiece in a Snell trade will have to be a young major league player who can at least nearly match the pitcher’s production on the field but also be paid less — so let’s look for a major leaguer who is projected to put up at least three wins next year, and is still on a minimum deal, to be our Austin Meadows. Then the Rays would want a pitcher who is MLB-ready to play the role of Tyler Glasnow, and then some sort of significant prospect piece to mitigate the risk of trading away a more certain thing. "

Let's start with our "Meadows" aka Andrew Vaughn.

Vaughn is nowhere near MLB ready, not by any of the numbers. He played 29 games in High-A ball in 2019, and his production was fairly mediocre, especially in the context of being a "top 20 prospect". Meadows was hitting 111 wRC+ and a .335 wOBA in his MLB debut in Pittsburgh. Vaughn hasn't even made his MLB debut, and probably won't until closer to July/ August at the earliest.

Now, we move onto "Glasnow", aka Michael Kopech:

Kopech has logged 14 IP in the majors. And hasn't thrown a MLB, or MiLB pitch since September of 2018. Compare that to Glasnow, who had over 140 IP in the Majors (10x more than Kopech) by the time he was traded. Glasnow was 24 when traded, Kopech is the same age this offseason, with 10% of the track record of Glasnow.

And for the "Shane Baz" aka, Michael Stiever:

Stiever is a 40+ FV prospect (remember, YOU were the one who said 40 FV isn't even "good". So I assume 40+ isn't much better) . Shane Baz was the #76 prospect prior to that trade and is a 50 FV prospect now. Mind you, he was also that highly touted at 19, when he was traded. Stiever will be 24 in May (5 years older) and is worse.

So for all the work Sarris did to try and find a trade that matched the Archer trade, literally none of the standards applied to the White Sox trade.

And the other four would quickly, and easily, outbid the White Sox' offer.


14.) 30 Nov 2020 17:58:25
"To a certain extent, every team that ever trades for a prospect is acting on faith - faith in their scouts, data analysts, player development systems and projection models that each prospect will in fact turn out. "

Of course they are. But there's levels of trust. Look at the players mentioned outside the White Sox deal:

Hoskins, Howard, Morales, Verdugo, Casas, Houck, Gurriel, SWR, Kirk, Morejon, Patino, Campusano.

With the exception of three of those guys (Casas, SWR, Morales), we have seen some MLB time and can better identify what would be needed to fix or work on.

Stiever is the only one who wouldn't require "operating on faith", but we also understand he's objectively the worst name mentioned in the entire article. So while we "know" what he's capable of, the bar is also incredibly low, comparatively.

So while the Rays will have to act in faith on a few players, they likely don't want to do that for the entire package they receive. They'll want commodities that they know can, to an extent, play at the MLB level. I'm not sure we can say that, at all, about Vaughn or Kopech, or even Stiever, for that matter.

As a thought exercise: would you give up Lucas Giolito for three people who, combined have 20 IP in the majors over the PAST 3 seasons, and that's it? Of course you wouldn't.


15.) 30 Nov 2020 19:37:32
Sarris lined up his criteria for a trade and then included the Sox package as one of five, actually the 1st one outlined. Did he not? The Sox have the best package in that piece, easily. Don't overthink this to fit your own narrative.

Philly's package is nice, but does Philly do that? More a key cog out of their lineup that may also be losing Realmuto? Trade 2 more pitchers that will be in Philadelphia in 2021? unlikely IMO.

Are the Rays going to trade Snell in division? I'd doubt it. And I'd argue that SD's package, a team that already traded a lot to get a starter, is objectively worse. The White Sox make the most sense to over pay for Snell, in my opinion, given A. their current window, B. an already strong lineup and bullpen that can manage the loss of impact prospects, and C. Having those kind of high upside, MLB-ready (or very close to MLB-ready) prospects to move.

While the package doesn't align perfectly with the Archer package, Vaughn and Kopech are the best 2 prospects mentioned in the article, but still, the Sox pay up for the uncertainty with the only 2 top-20 prospects mentioned. We may be on reply 8 or so of me mentioning this.

But in terms of type of players, Vaughn:Meadows and Kopech:Glasnow is pretty darn similar.

"Vaughn is nowhere near MLB ready" lol, then neither is Joey Bart. Vaughn will play the majority of 2021 in MLB, as will Kopech, barring injury.

How do you "know what Steiver is capable of"? From the 2 MLB starts this year?

"As for him not including Joey Bart, I'd imagine if he pulled a Bleacher Report-style article and included a deal from every team, the Giants' offer would be something like Joey Bart, Alexander Canario, and Logan Webb. "

No, no no, not so fast. To compare with the other packages "on the table", it would be Bart + 1 of Luciano, Ramos or Bishop. Not Canario conveniently for the Giants. Try again.

I don't even know your stance anymore. First my Snell proposal was a significant over pay, then it was an underpay, now we have top writers throwing out almost the same trade. I'm not sure.

"As a thought exercise: would you give up Lucas Giolito for three people who, combined have 20 IP in the majors over the PAST 3 seasons, and that's it? Of course you wouldn't. "

Obviously not. But the White Sox don't have to make the same financial decisions as the Rays. The darn context is important Nate.


16.) 30 Nov 2020 20:54:55
"While the package doesn't align perfectly with the Archer package"

You don't say? It's objectively worse, in every possible way. And Snell is better than Archer, in every possible way. Would it not stand to reason that the Snell trade should demand MORE than the Archer trade?

For what it's worth, I don't think anyone gives that kind of an overpay for Snell like they did for Archer. That Archer trade legitimately got a GM fired.

And my stance hasn't changed. I still think your trade is a massive overpay. Frankly, I think Vaughn + a 40 FV prospect is more than enough for Blake Snell, who is coming off a season with a 1.6 adjusted fWAR. He wasn't even league-average in 2020, and was just okay in 2019. From 2019-20, Snell's 3.3 wins puts him behind Jon Gray and Chris Bassitt. It ranks him with Matthew Boyd and John Means.

If you take just his 2020 numbers, he tied with Alex Cobb, Mike Fiers, and Danny Duffy, to name a few. Some of that is his lack of innings in 2020, and the fact that the Rays pulled him before the 6th inning in every start. But let's not pretend that we're trading for Walker Buehler here.

There's a lot of uncertainty all around. The Rays are not going to get two top 20 prospects for Blake Snell. I'm not sure they get two top 50 prospects for him, not in this market and not considering the financial circumstances at play.

IF they get two top 50 guys, they'll be guys who are fringy candidates and are littered with serious question marks. Kopech probably fits that profile. Kopech has a significant of work to do to match the hype he came with. I strongly doubt he ever lives up to it. He's another Carson Fulmer type, honestly.


17.) 30 Nov 2020 21:02:13
And really, the confusing part was yours. My mind has never changed on Snell. I think it's an overpay. But I also think you managed to put together a trade that is 100% an overpay, and also with one player who is all hype and no substance.

YOU, on the other hand, acted like it wasn't an overpay. In fact, based on your own words, "I think 8 combined seasons of Snell + Springer would outperform 11 seasons of Vaughn + Kopech. "

So, really, it's an underpay.

But it's also a perfect trade. And it's also the most perfect trade anyone has ever made on this site. It's a trade that zero teams, based on your views, can match (news flash: EVERY team can match that trade) . And it perfectly fits the Rays every need, even though it matches literally zero of them.

See, Jeff, I've never stood on the principle that my trade is better than everyone's here. I've just stated that it is OBJECTIVELY better than YOURS.

The funny thing is: neither your team, nor mine are going to land Blake Snell. Like most players, Snell would retire from baseball before playing for Tony La Russa, and the Giants aren't trading Joey Bart.

So really, this is all moot. You're getting REALLY worked up about someone disagreeing with your made up trade.

Maybe you can make up a Jonathan Stiever for Brandon Nimmo trade and it'll make you feel all better.


18.) 30 Nov 2020 21:30:25
"And my stance hasn't changed. I still think your trade is a massive overpay. "

Shot.

"So, really, it's an underpay. "

Chaser.

Point=Proven.


19.) 30 Nov 2020 21:55:32
Maybe 20-25 teams *could* match the trade, but how many *would*? Not very many at all. The Sox are one of very few teams where trading 2 top-50 prospects for Snell would make sense. Yeah, there's a 95% chance he's still in Tampa Bay in 2021, but Vaughn + Kopech, etc. is the kind of deal that gets the ball significantly rolling. The Rays are making him available in case someone like the White Sox would be willing to make a deal like the one I proposed.

"even though it matches literally zero of [the Rays' needs]"

Vaughn: controllable, high upside, top-20 prospect, potential cornerstone bat of a poor franchise

Kopech: Ace potential, another top-20 prospect, for a team that develops raw stuff as well as any team in the industry.

Quite the puzzling statement. Add it to the (increasingly extensive) list!

"Snell would retire from baseball before playing for Tony La Russa"

You can speak for Blake Snell? Oh, ok. Snell would likely gladly pitch for the White Sox deep into the postseason for a manager that will let him throw 3 or maybe even 4 times through the order if he's looking good. He's an elite starting pitcher in MLB. Over the last 3 seasons, he's 1 of 11 pitchers with a sub-.330 xFIP.

Who's that better than? Oh right, Walker Buehler.

Snell is virtually identical to Buehler in fWAR/ IP. So, yeah, if it weren't for age and contractual control disparities, we are, in fact, essentially talking about trading for Walker Buehler.

The Rays hold the all the cards. I get that. Eno Sarris gets that. You unfortunately do not.


20.) 01 Dec 2020 14:10:25
Name me 3 pitchers who missed two full years of development who turned into "aces". If you can even list ONE, I'll concede the point.

Kopech isn't "ace potential" anymore. He's probably closer to Reynaldo Lopez than he is Lucas Giolito. I'd wager he's closer to Carson Fulmer than Lopez even still.

He's no longer a "raw" pitcher. He's a pitcher that missed extremely vital and crucial time necessary for development. The Rays are great at developing pitching, but even they'll have their limitations.

A prime example of this is Brent Honeywell. Honeywell hasn't thrown an "affiliated" pitch since 2017. The time he missed is undoubtedly going to create risk for the Rays, who are seeking to win the AL East again. He's out of options, and there's no knowing how he'll actually pitch come Spring Training.

I have a pretty strong belief that the Rays don't want two guys just like Brent Honeywell.

And before you try and act like they aren't the same. I agree. Brent Honeywell doesn't come with the off-field issues like Kopech. So, in many ways, Kopech is a persona non grata for teams. He's missed too much time and until he proves that he's worth the hype he came with, no one is buying it.

The Rays don't need more guys with off-field issues. Their franchise has had more than their fair share of them. And they don't need another over-hyped 1B prospect. They've seen their fair share as well.

You can hear it from me first: Andrew Vaughn will not have one season above 3 wins in his career. Not a single one.


21.) 01 Dec 2020 20:36:59
So first, Vaughn was "very, very good" and adding Kopech made my initial Snell proposal a "major overpay".

Now, according to you, Vaughn "will not have one season above 3 wins in his career" and Kopech is now closer to Carson Fulmer or Reynaldo Lopez than a good pitcher?

Very tough to follow, but you move the goal posts so often it's so typical.

Vaughn still has .300/ .400/ .500 potential and Kopech sits 98-100 with an exploding high spin, high spin-efficient 4-seamer to go along with a 65-grade slider and feel for a change and curveball. The best FA pitcher on the market this offseason has shown that off-the-field issues are not a death sentence to your on-the-field performance. Kopech is a top-20 prospect everywhere for a reason. His development in Tampa would be potentially scary. Look what they did for Glasnow - a similar pitcher to Kopech but wasn't as highly regarded.

You're starting to pull narratives out of your rear end.


22.) 01 Dec 2020 21:01:53
He's a top 20 prospect everywhere because no one has enough data from 2020 to move anyone lol.

And Glasnow didn't miss two crucial years of development. He had 140 IP in the MAJORS and was on the 25-man roster when traded. The example of Glasnow couldn't be any further from reality.

And yeah, it's not a "death sentence", but when your pitcher is taking a year off for supposedly mental health reasons, that's going to raise serious red flags to anyone in baseball.

Except you, apprarently.

Although, you'd be trashing Kopech for those exact reasons every which way to Sunday if it weren't for the team next to his name.


23.) 01 Dec 2020 21:10:07
Also, I first thought it was an overpay. Then you explained to me how much of an underpay it truly was, and showed every reason why the Rays SHOULDN'T accept the deal.

So I began to look into Vaughn and Kopech a little closer. And the more I looked, the more I realized that the two—especially Kopech—aren't very good. It's okay to admit this. You won't get thrown out of Guaranteed Rate Field for admitting the truth. (They can't throw you out, otherwise they only have 14 people left in the stands. )

Kopech's mental health issues alone is going to raise serious red flags, and I'd imagine Boston's ownership is thrilled to let him be someone else's problem.

But if ever there was a fit for an over-rated, has-been prospect with known behavioral and mental health issues, the team that knowingly employed a 76-year-old man with active DUI charges against him seems like the PERFECT fit.

La Russa and Kopech were made for each other.

Anyhoo, enjoy Erik Katz as the pitching coach. Seems like Rick Hahn has to emulate Farhan Zaidi by hiring one of his coaches. Maybe he'll fix Kopech for y'all.


24.) 02 Dec 2020 02:07:55
It's Ethan Katz.

If that isn't symbolic of this whole ordeal, I don't know what is.


25.) 02 Dec 2020 08:03:41
"He's a top 20 prospect everywhere because no one has enough data from 2020 to move anyone lol. "

Or because in March he was sitting 101 along with the other stuff i described? Until he isn't doing that, he's a top prospect. No matter what his off-the-field issues are.

But really, you're seriously going to bag on the kid because he's battling depression? He's made for TLR? What does even mean? Shame on you. It's a low blow, even for someone with the less than desirable moral character you've showed on this forum. It's 2020 -- teams literally employ sport psychologists for things like this.

The amount of pro athletes that have likely battled the same demons is probably vast, but not a lot were brave enough to be vocal about it. He was also going through a divorce right before summer camp started. He's really not a problem - he's a genuinely good kid and an elite talent. One that the Red Sox struggled to part with, the White Sox are still thrilled to have, and the Rays would love to put their magic finishing touches on through his development.

Flip flopping and now saying that Vaughn and Kopech are not good players is such a trolling comment that there's not a whole lot left to say. If they aren't good prospects, then I'm afraid I have some bad news for the entire Giants farm system.

I think Neander would drool over this offer and take it quickly. The more I think about it, however, I just don't think it would be on the table -- as much as I think it should be. This magnitude of a return is likely what it's going to take to get Snell because he doesn't have to be traded at all and likely why he won't be.


26.) 02 Dec 2020 13:55:09
It's not bagging on a guy to state that he deals with mental health issues. It's an EXTREMELY relevant part of dealing with Kopech.

Look, Kopech needs to get the help he needs, clearly. And hopefully for his sake, 2020 was that chance. But his ability to hit 101 on the radar gun won't matter if he's unavailable to pitch because he's on the Restricted List or because his off-field problems lead to his unavailability in any capacity (i. e. 2020).

The Rays, or any team for that matter, aren't taking a guy who they don't even know if they can rely on to be on the field. It's one thing if the guy is battling injuries, it's another when it's emotional/ mental health issues, which point to a larger issue that is usually much more difficult to manage.

Have you ever hired anyone? Had to manage anyone dealing with mental health issues? Honestly. I have. I have them in my family. And they are as unreliable as it gets. That's not bagging on them, it's the truth.

If something as innocuous as getting a divorce is enough to force Kopech to take a break from baseball—while obviously it's better for him to take care of it—that's alarming to teams. And it's indicative of a player who, although very talented, will probably be limited by demons.

It's not knocking Kopech to mention this. And the TLR comment was pretty obviously to rag on the White Sox, who KNOWINGLY HIRED A GUY WITH DUI CHARGES to be their manager. It seems like they genuinely don't care about anything but trying to win (which is odd, because they also hired Tony La Russa) . People who hire guys like TLR have massive moral issues.

And, unfortunately, if the White Sox will overlook something as bad as a DUI, do you honestly think they are paying close enough attention to, or even care about, someone on their team who could be a serious problem down the road?

Doubt it.

Kopech's "value" is absolutely tied to his mental health issues. You can pretend it's not, you can act really offended by someone saying this, but it's 100% relevant and I guarantee the conversations among GMs in any trade discussion would be 10X harsher and less gracious than I'm being.


27.) 02 Dec 2020 20:14:33
FWIW, taking several months off of work because of you divorced your spouse is not normal behavior. I won't pretend to know the circumstances, and won't buy into speculations about it. But that's not normal behavior, and is certainly indicative of larger issues.

As someone who has dealt with mental health issues in the past, I'll be the first to say that businesses, especially sports teams where guys are paid 6-8 figure salaries, are taking on guys who are total enigmas. If Kopech will opt out because he got divorced, what's next? His dog died, so now, no more baseball?

If that seems exaggerative, it's really not. People who fight depression and anxiety to those extremes are prone to being flighty at work. I know, because I was once there.

The point is, why would the Rays, or any team, pay top-shelf price for a pitcher with known issues, and ones where his own coaches (who know him pretty well) publicly express deep levels of concern for him?

It's foolish to brush the mental health issues aside and treat them like they don't matter. They do. Because the truth is, it won't matter if he can throw 101 if he's not on the field for whatever reason. And over the past 24 months, he's been off the field a whole heck of a lot more than he's been on it. And that'll concern GMs.

You never answered my question, either. Name me just one player who missed two years of minor-league development who came back and pitched like an "ace" for his career? By development, I mean a guy between the ages of 18-25, not someone like Rich Hill.

Just one player. I'm not sure you can find me one. Kopech's value is totally tanked. And if he can log 50+ innings and not get hit all over the yard, you should be VERY HAPPY. I'm not betting that'll happen.

Frankly, I think you've seen the best of Michael Kopech in baseball. I'll take that bet every day.


28.) 02 Dec 2020 23:30:38
Every time I saw his name, I thought it was Erik Kratz. It's an easy mistake to make.

But I think it's actually more ironic than you're willing to admit (or, more realistically, than you're able to comprehend) .

Rick Hahn is taking a coach from the GM who is supposed to be emulating HIM, not the other way around. According to you, it should be the Giants who are hiring the White Sox coaches.

You don't find it a bit ironic that the World Champion White Sox are getting an assistant coach from the minor-league Giants?

I guess, considering the context of your recent comments about the Giants, and about Zaidi needing to emulate Hahn, I found it funny that Hahn hired a coach away from him, and, again, not the other way around.

FWIW, the ONLY reason Katz is going to Chicago is because he coached Giolito at Harvard-Westlake. Nepotism hires don't typically work out very well in baseball. But I expect the ever innovative Rick Hahn to make the most of the opportunity, just like he did from 2013-2017.


 

 

05 Nov 2020 17:35:58
Possible White Sox trades:

1. Trade Jonathan Stiever, Zack Burdi, and Adam Engel to Washington for Juan Soto.

Note: How could Washington not trade their over-rated OF for a bunch of hugely undervalued future superstars?

2. Trade Micker Adolfo and Jose Ruiz to Atlanta for Mike Soroka.

Note: Atlanta would be foolish not to take this. The out-of-options stars from Chicago carry way more surplus value than the ace who was only worth 0.3 WAR in 2020.

3. Trade Reynaldo Lopez to San Diego for Fernando Tatis, Jr.

Note: Tatis isn't very good. Why else did we trade him to San Diego for James Shields in the first place? So giving up Lopez is already a lot, but we feel generous giving up our stud pitcher for their backup SS.

natedog

1.) 05 Nov 2020 19:53:20
Rent free.


2.) 05 Nov 2020 20:11:41
Okay fine. Nationals add Trea Turner.

I expect nothing less from the Sporting News Executive of the Year.


3.) 05 Nov 2020 20:22:08
I know you’re not used to people caring about what you say or paying attention to you, Chi Sox. So I get you being surprised.

I guess revel in it. Someone in this world finally cares about you. Congratulations!


4.) 05 Nov 2020 20:35:07
You always care what I say, it's not new. You have turned your presence on this forum solely paying attention to what I say (See: Nate's profile picture) .

It's cool to have a fan!

RENT FREE!


5.) 05 Nov 2020 20:58:31
I do find it funny that you immediately associate a post that is over-the-top, ridiculous, and absolutely not going to happen with yourself. No one mentioned you, but you knew it was about you.

I don’t know about you, but I call that progress.


6.) 06 Nov 2020 16:28:38
Right, I really went out on a limb guessing who this was targeted at.


7.) 07 Nov 2020 06:01:11
I guess that's fair. There's like 7 White Sox fans in America. And the other ones are busy doing something that will actually impact the world in a meaningful way.

So I guess it wasn't that difficult to narrow you down.


8.) 07 Nov 2020 14:54:25
I know this site is for trade ideas. Butttt you got a better change robbing a bank than the Padres just handing Tatis back to the White Sox for a pitcher that's a 4 starter at best right now.

I'd say Micker Adolfo and Jose Ruiz to Atlanta for Mike Soroka and Acuna.


9.) 07 Nov 2020 15:36:43
I'm taking the route of Chi Sox and making a totally unserious baseball trade idea.

It was obviously in jest.


10.) 07 Nov 2020 17:06:39
Rockies Offseason Needs
Trades:
Nolan Arenado and David Dahl to Rangers for Joey Gallo, Lance Lynn, and Jose Leclerc

Trevor Story to Dodgers for Max Muncy and Kenley Jansen

Ian Desmond to Indians for Zach Plesac

Signings:
Ozuna-2 Years, 40 million
Lemeheiu: 3 years, 75 million
Gregorius: 4 years, 32 million
Turner: 1 year, 7 million w/ 5 million Club Option 2022
Tanaka: 3 years, 18 million

Lineup:
CF Tapia
2B Lemeheiu
1B Muncy
RF Gallo
DH Ozuna
LF Blackmon
SS Gregorius
3B Turner
C Diaz

Bench:
INF Mcmahon
UTIL Hampson
OF Hilliard
C Wolters


Rotation:
German Marquez
Lance Lynn
Mashiro Tanaka
Kyle Freeland
Zach Plesac

Bullpen:
Long: Gray
Middle:
Jose Leclerc
Mychal Givens
Daniel Bard
Setup: Oberg
Closer: Jansen.


11.) 08 Nov 2020 18:55:56
Plesac ain't going no where and ESPECIALLY for that! .


 

 

 

natedog's talk posts with other poster's replies to natedog's talk posts

 

18 Feb 2021 15:29:20
As Spring Training begins, here are my projected standings for the 2021 season:

AL East
NY Yankees- 96-66
Toronto- 93-69
Tampa Bay- 88-74
Boston- 76-86
Baltimore- 60-102

AL Central
Chicago- 93-69
Minnesota- 92-70
Cleveland- 85-77
Kansas City- 71-91
Detroit- 63-99

AL West
Oakland- 91-71
LA Angels- 88-74
Houston- 87-75
Seattle- 74-88
Texas- 64-98

NL East
Atlanta- 92-70
NY Mets- 90-72
Philadelphia- 81-81
Miami- 75-87
Washington- 75-87

NL Central
St. Louis- 91-71
Chicago- 84-78
Milwaukee- 82-80
Cincinnati- 78-84
Pittsburgh- 58-104

NL West
LA Dodgers- 102-60
San Diego- 90-72
San Francisco- 79-83
Arizona- 76-86
Colorado- 56-106

Playoffs:
AL WC- Toronto over Minnesota
NL WC- San Diego over NY Mets

ALDS
NY Yankees over Toronto, 3-1
Oakland over Chicago, 3-0

NLDS
LA Dodgers over San Diego, 3-2
Atlanta over St. Louis, 3-0

ALCS
NY Yankees over Oakland, 4-2
Atlanta over LA Dodgers, 4-3

World Series
Atlanta over NY Yankees 4-3

natedog

1.) 18 Feb 2021 16:20:11
And no, Chi Sox, I'm not trolling when I suggest the Athletics sweep the White Sox in the first round of the playoffs.


 

 

22 Oct 2020 22:41:13
Free Agent Predictions

-J. T. Realmuto- Mets. 5/ 85M.
-Trevor Bauer- Angels, 1/ 23M.
-Marcell Ozuna- Braves, 6/ 144M
-George Springer- Astros, 7/ 165M
-Nick Castellanos (Opts Out) - Phillies, 5/ 100M
-Marcus Semien-Athletics, 3/ 36M
-DJ LeMahieu- Yankees, 3/ 45M
-Marcus Stroman- Yankees, 2/ 34M
-Didi Gregorius- Angels, 3/ 42M
-Masahiro Tanaka- Twins, 4/ 54M
-Liam Hendriks- Giants, 3/ 21M
-Jake Odorizzi- Cardials, 4/ 60M
-Shane Greene- Blue Jays, 2/ 16M
-Alex Colome- White Sox, 1/ 8M
-Blake Treinen- Astros, 2/ 15M
-Taijuan Walker- Phillies, 4/ 48M
-Jose Quintana- Marlins, 3/ 39M
-Nelson Cruz- Twins, 1/ 12.5M
-James Paxton- Blue Jays, 2/ 28M
-Michael Brantley- Indians, 3/ 39M.

natedog

1.) 25 Oct 2020 03:47:16
So you think there won't be much financial effect on this years FA market? I sure hope so. My thoughts:

1. Someone will give Colome 2 years

2. I think 3 years to Brantley is a bad idea for who ever would do it

3. Tanaka ain't leaving NY imo

4. Bauer gets a lot more on a 1-year deal

5. Castellanos, who just put up a league average offensive 60 games, is definitely not opting out, and if he did, he's not getting close to 9 figures.

6. Ozuna is not getting a 24 million AAV over 6 years. He's largely a DH.


2.) 25 Oct 2020 12:11:43
The Bauer deal is a tough one to pin down. If he’s truly unwilling to consider multi-year deals, he gives up a ton of leverage in negotiations.

Not to mention, his personality isn’t going to fly with a lot of managers, so he may be limited.

I personally think he’s not wise taking one year deals, but that’s the route he is choosing. I’m not convinced it’ll work out for him.


3.) 25 Oct 2020 12:12:58
The point about the financial market is definitely a fair one. And one to be considered. How much affect? We won’t know, so I went with what I thought they’d get in normal years.

A few other thoughts:

I agree that 3 years for Brantley is bad. But someone will probably do it.

Tanaka will follow the money, which I don’t think will come from NY. They have a lot of money on the books and more owed soon. Locking down a 32-year-old pitcher for 4 seasons is unwise.

The other points are fair too. I disagree with some, but it’s whatevs.


 

 

 

natedog's rumour replies

 

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17 Mar 2021 11:56:35
I think it's more of a backup plan in the event they don't like their options. They have plenty of options, but Vogelbach would give them a fairly risk-free play. You don't have to worry about service time, he's minimal cost, and you can cut him when you need another spot.

I like Wendle a lot as well. But the Rays have an embarrassment of riches, and getting some pretty solid value for him would be a good idea to both save money and play the younger studs.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

26 Feb 2021 16:24:18
Umm, they gave up Luis Patino, a consensus top 20 prospect to get Blake Snell. So, yes, they did have to give up someeone great to land Blake Snell.

If it took a 60 FV prospect (Patino), a 50 FV prospect (Hunt) and a 45 FV prospect (Wilcox) AND a controllable MLB catcher to land Blake Snell, what do you think it would take to get Christian Yelich AND Josh Hader?

Suggesting a package of Abrams (60 FV), Campusano (55 FV) and a couple of 45 FV guys isn't trat ridiculous.

In fact, such a trade package is probably too light.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

25 Feb 2021 13:58:26
A trade of this magnitude would require a package with either:

MacKenzie Gore and a few 45 FV prospects

OR

CJ Abrams + Luis Campusano AND a few 45 FV prospects.

Milwaukee has zero reason to dump Yelich for lesser assets.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

25 Feb 2021 13:55:45
So, let's get this straight:

The Padres get Christian Yelich AND Josh Hader, and the Padres get to unload Wil Myers' contract, and give up a bunch of high variance prospects who don't have a bunch of value anymore, as well?

Why, exactly, would the Brewers even think about this offer?

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

03 Feb 2021 17:28:14
Castillo isn't a salary dump, either.

Trading Castillo would represent an opportunity for the Reds to get more youth in their system and try to rebuild a core.

If they want to dump salary, they'll likely start with Sonny Gray, Suarez, or even Moustakas.

But trading Castillo for a lesser return doesn't make any sense.

natedog

 

 

 

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