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25 Dec 2022 20:24:24
Let's switch subjects. Who has some analysis on the latest Blue Jays Diamondbacks trade. I'm a life long Jays fan. Hard to see Moreno get traded but I don't know much about Varsho.

TML1975

1.) 29 Dec 2022 13:42:25
Varsho is an elite defender, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired. His Statcast numbers are yucky.


2.) 29 Dec 2022 18:06:22
You'd like to see the xwOBA higher, but a 66th percentile max EV and a 70th percentile barrel rate are not "yucky" (Gurriel is in the 56th and 12th percentiles for these metrics, respectively) .

Avg. EV, xBA, and HH% (you'd want to use a dynamic hard hit rate, not static) are not the best metrics to leverage.

Love this for both teams, but especially the Jays - creating an elite defensive outfield and a much needed LH bat. Being able to also catch is the cherry on top.


3.) 29 Dec 2022 22:31:57
He was a 106 wRC+ hitter in 2022 while outperforming his xwOBA by 25 points.

Coincidentally, Varsho has performed at his xwOBA in each of his previous two seasons. The wRC+ in those seasons? 76 and 99.

At best, Varsho is a league average hitter. Which is perfectly fine, considering he's elite defensively. Toronto got an elite defender at CF, who can be league average with the bat. That's a very good player by any rights, and totally worth giving up Moreno.

TL:DR version (aka the Chi Sox version) : if Toronto wanted an elite offensive OF, they crapped the bed. If they wanted someone with elite skills on either side and average on the other, they struck gold.

I, too, like this for Toronto.


4.) 31 Dec 2022 12:09:14
I love the fact that this will push Springer to one of the corners for most of the year. I wasn't too concerned about the defence if Kiermeier can stay healthy (big if) . Losing the offensive production from Hernandez will hurt. His injuries last year and pending Free agency brought his trade value down. I think they should of kept him while still making the other moves. Kiermeier to me is no more than a late inning defensive replacement at this point in his career. Similar to what JBJ brought last year. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.


5.) 01 Jan 2023 18:28:14
Kiermaier is so good in the outfield that if he stays healthy, he's a minimum 2-win player. He's better than JBJ because he's shown over his career that he has a playable offensive floor. He's never had lower that a 79 wRC+ in a season, and isn't even a complete dud against LHP.

Hernandez's power production should bounce back at least somewhat, but that lineup wasn't exactly starved for right-handed power. Plus his $15+ million arb projection was more than they were willing to pay. Getting Swanson for him was a nice move.

Varsho being able to catch allows to you still comfortably be able to DH Kirk or Jansen also.

Arizona get more right handed and a really good young catcher in Moreno.


 

 

 

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29 Jul 2021 04:02:58
Yeah, the Jays won't give up those prospects for a player that probably won't even help them get to a WC game this year. I think you will see some higher end prospects moved in the off season for the Jays to make a serious run in the next couple years.

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31 Dec 2022 12:09:14
I love the fact that this will push Springer to one of the corners for most of the year. I wasn't too concerned about the defence if Kiermeier can stay healthy (big if) . Losing the offensive production from Hernandez will hurt. His injuries last year and pending Free agency brought his trade value down. I think they should of kept him while still making the other moves. Kiermeier to me is no more than a late inning defensive replacement at this point in his career. Similar to what JBJ brought last year. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.

TML1975