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27 Jul 2021 16:36:37
Mariners/ Nationals

Mariners: Trea Turner

Nationals: Noelvi Marte SS (50FV), George Kirby P (50FV), Juan Then P (45FV), Milkar Perez 3B (40FV)

Agree0 Disagree5

27 Jul 2021 15:02:19
NY Mets Trades for post season push:

Trade for Max Scherzer
Mets send to Nationals
1. Mark Vientos
2. David Peterson

Trade for J. Baez and C. Kimbrel
Mets send to Cubs
1. Ronny Mauricio
2. Frank Kilome

Agree2 Disagree4

27 Jul 2021 15:27:07
If Nats could land Vientos that would be an incredibly solid get for Scherzer.

Love Mauricio as the headliner here, but there would have to be some other supplementary pieces like Alexander Ramirez or Jordan Palmer instead of Kilome with the direction the cubs have gone in most trades.

Not bad all around, feel like both these moves would put the Mets as serious contenders.

27 Jul 2021 17:31:56
MrOctober_24,

Nats trade
Agreed that Vientos and Peterson would be a goo hall for Nats especially since Scherzer is a rental. They would get a young position player and a decent MLB pitcher under control. It's costly but the Mets would go into the playoffs with arguably the best 1 - 2 punch in a rotation.

Cubs trade
I agree the secondary pieces would change. The only thing is that I don't think the mets will want to trade Palmer while trading Mauricio in this trade and Vientos in the Nats trade. After Mauricio the Mets don't have much SS prospect depth.
Mets would get Baez who could play SS until Lindor comes back then shift around to 2b, 3b when Lindor in healthy. Plus getting Kimbrel for this year and next year ---- he's been lock down.

27 Jul 2021 17:33:34
I highly doubt Nats would trade Turner.
Turner and Soto are the 2 players they will build around.

27 Jul 2021 17:37:35
There's a better chance that Chi Sox says something bad about Jose Abreu than the Cubs getting Ronny Mauricio for Baez + Kimbrel.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:13
Dan

There have been multiple legitimate sources that have stated the Nats are taking offers on Turner and Seattle is very interested.

27 Jul 2021 07:44:19
Here's what the White Sox should do this week:

Trade #1

White Sox get: RHP Ryan Tepera
Cubs Get: RHP Andrew Dalquist, INF Yolbert Sanchez

Trade #2

White Sox get: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar
Diamondbacks get: 1B/OF Gavin Sheets

Trade #3

White Sox get: Ian Kennedy RHP
Rangers get: DH Yermin Mercedes, RHP Kade McClure

Agree3 Disagree5

27 Jul 2021 11:15:10
Tepera trade isn’t bad at all. Would be a solid return for a rental and Sox would get a consistent bullpen arm. I like it.

27 Jul 2021 04:39:52
Official:

Athletics: Andrew Chafin

Cubs: Greg Diechmann OF (FV40+), Daniel Palencia P (FV40+)

FV according to Fangraphs. com.

Agree1 Disagree0

27 Jul 2021 13:38:50
It's an interesting return for Chafin. Very low floor, medium ceiling type players.

The real prize for the Cubs could be Palencia. If they can work on his stuff, he's got late-inning upside, in my opinion.

Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years.

27 Jul 2021 13:57:23
What…? Lol was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and likely would have been up early this year if they didn’t lose 2020 to c.v.. He has also improved his walk rate a ton and cut his strikeout %.

I agree he doesn’t have a high ceiling, but to make that statement you made in your last sentence is just incorrect. Especially when you hype up Dubon who is older and performing worse at the same level.

27 Jul 2021 14:20:08
Dubon is MLB-bench depth who can be played all over the field, something guys like Jed Hoyer have targeted in the past (see: Zobrist, Ben) .

Also, how is Dubon performing worse at the "same level"?

2021 AAA stats:
Dubon- 143 wRC+. .419 wOBA
Deichmann- 128 wRC+, .395 wOBA

They are performing at pretty similar rates. They are both low-ceiling, low-floor guys. Also, both have hilariously unsustainable BABIPs in AAA. Deichmann isn't going to have a .400 BABIP for the Cubs. A BABIP of even .350 pulls his wRC+ down to around league average (100).

I can see why the Cubs are intrigued by Deichmann. If he works out, it's brilliant. They got a great OF for the price of Andrew Chafin (who is also having a hilariously unsustainable year) . If he doesn't, well, they got a 26-year-old OF prospect who likely wasn't going to be much more than a 4th OF anyway.

It's a good trade. But I would lower your expectations for Deichmann by a significant amount.

27 Jul 2021 14:23:55
Also, my statement of "Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years. " cannot be incorrect yet.

It's a prediction. One that neither you nor I have any indication whether it's right or wrong.

If you think Deichmann will be some stud in Chicago, by all means, predict away. I'm of the belief that he's not much of an improvement over someone like Michael Hermosillo, who the Cubs won't even roster.

I'm okay with being wrong, but Deichmann's types have been around for over a decade, and rarely do they stick around.

I'm not incorrect. You're not incorrect. It's called a "prediction". We'll deem what's correct in about 3-5 years.

27 Jul 2021 14:40:56
Ben Zobrist was a key piece in a World Series winning team and a 2 time all star BEFORE the Cubs acquired him. Just because Dubon can play multiple positions doesn’t put him in any relation with Zobrist.

When did I have expectations about GD? I just didn’t agree with what you said. I agreed his ceiling isn’t high, but to say he will be one of those guys to be DFA is just silly given the fact he has shown improvement and has potential to hit well.

27 Jul 2021 17:46:35
My point to Dubon was that positional flexibility is something that Hoyer is ON THE RECORD saying he values. If he can have a bench piece who plays infield and outfield, he can put more relievers on the roster.

Deichmann is a 26-year-old OF prospect, who doesn't hit lefties, at all, who is relying on a .401 BABIP to produce in AAA. He's not going to carry a .401 BABIP in Chicago, or anything close to it.

He'll likely be a 65-80 wRC+ guy, which isn't a starter, by any means, and likely shouldn't come off the bench, unless he becomes someone who can tee off on RHP. Unless something drastically changes, Deichmann is a platoon-guy, likely at the highest possible projection. And those guys get optioned and DFA'd literally every day in baseball.

He's an intriguing option, but saying he's likely to waste his option years and be DFA'd isn't that silly.

20 Jul 2021 14:57:35
Some Giants trades.

#1
Giants get: RHP Kenta Maeda, OF Brent Rooker

Twins get: OF Austin Slater, 3B Luis Toribio (#9, 45 FV), SS Dilan Rosario (#26, 40 FV), RHP Camilo Doval (MLB-ready RHP, 40 FV).

Zaidi is familiar with Maeda, and Rooker seems like a lot of the Zaidi acquisitions. Twins would be more than familiar with the Giants' system.

#2
Giants get: RHP Yimi Garcia

Marlins get: RHP Tyler Beede

Giants solidify their bullpen, while the Marlins get some controllable pitching. They get a fixer-upper in Tyler Beede. Zaidi gets Garcia, who he is more than familiar with.

#3
Giants get: Kris Bryant

Cubs get: OF Alexander Canario (#13, 45 FV), UTIL Mauricio Dubon

Giants go get a guy Scott Harris is familiar with to bolster the lineup. Cubs get a super-utility guy and an intriguing OF prospect.

Lineup vs. RHP
1B- Wade
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
3B- Bryant
SS- Crawford
LF- Dickerson
CF- Duggar
2B- Solano/Flores

vs. LHP
RF- Yastrzemski
3B- Bryant
C- Posey
1B- Ruf
LF- Rooker
SS- Crawford
2B- Flores/Solano
CF- Duggar

Rotation
Gausman, DeSclafani, Maeda, Cueto, Wood

Bullpen
CP- Garcia (R)
SU- Rogers (R)
SU- McGee (L)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)
RP- Jackson/Brebbia (R)

Agree10 Disagree8

21 Jul 2021 12:46:29
Maeda has multiple years of control left at only a 3mil a year price. Going to have to give up a higher touted prospect imo.

Beede / Garcia deal is fine.

Canario is a nice prospect, but if Joc Pederson brought a 40FV prospect, I imagine KB can land a 50 or multiple prospects.

Overall not bad offers just need to be adjusted based on the value of the players coming to the giants. I think the giants make out pretty nicely on all 3 and it’s favored towards them.

21 Jul 2021 14:20:58
The $3.125M is the baseline. It's an incentive based contract.

In order to only be paid $3.125M, Maeda has to have less than 15 starts and less than 90 IP. If you're only paying Maeda $3M, then he had a bad year, and likely, didn't play much at all. At 180IP and 30 games started, Maeda is paid around $11M. That changes the value by quite a bit.

As far as the Bryant trade, if the Cubs can get a 50-grade prospect out of Kris Bryant, then they should, by all means, make that trade. Personally, I don't see any team giving up that return for a rental. And I strongly doubt it'll be the Giants, unless they can secure an extension out of him.

21 Jul 2021 15:45:18
Then the Giants won’t be the trade partner for Bryant. Offer him a QO and receive a high comp pick. Better than settling. If anything, pair Bryant with a reliever (Kimbrel, Chafin, Tepera) and improve the return.

21 Jul 2021 17:04:07
If you think that Alexander Canario and Mauricio Dubon is "settling", then I think you'll be sorely disappointed by any Kris Bryant trade. I don't think this is necessarily the "best" trade, but I do think it falls in line with what's fair.

Keep in mind, compensatory pick rules changed, and the Cubs would get a pick in between rounds 2 and 3 if they lost Bryant after offering a QO (due to their market size, they wouldn't get a 1st Round Comp Pick) . Do you truly believe that a 45-grade prospect would be available by then? If they are, it's likely because they are wanting a massive signing bonus.

Point is: Canario and Dubon would be significantly more valuable than anyone the Cubs are finding in the 3rd round of the draft.

If the Cubs are offered a return involving a couple of 40-FV guys, sure, take your chances in the division and with the Comp Pick. But I see them getting more.

21 Jul 2021 18:50:34
“ If a team that loses a qualifying free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, and the lost player signs for at least $50 million, the team is awarded a compensatory pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for the team comes after Competitive Balance Round B. ”

I think Bryant will sign for over 50 million…lol

27 year old utility man Dubon?! No thanks. As stated before, Canario is a nice prospect, but he won’t lead a package for Bryant.

21 Jul 2021 19:11:00
I've watched my fair share of Maeda start this year, he's looked brutal. Not sure he's any better than what SF currently has in the rotation.

Also, If you think that package is definitely suitable for Bryant and mine wasn't for Story (who is less valuable, having a worse season/ career, and has a smaller market), you need to rethink your valuations and comments.

22 Jul 2021 01:32:55
If you think someone better than Canario is headlining a Bryant deal, I honestly don't know what to say.

You'll be thoroughly disappointed with the deal. Just going to say it.

And Chi Sox, no. I don't think Bryant and Story will receive that drastically different returns. Probably a 45 FV guy each, with Bryant likely fetching an intriguing MLB piece on top of it. (Slater or Dubon from the Giants would likely do the trick)

22 Jul 2021 15:32:37
Ah ok. Maybe all my trade was lacking then was intriguing MLB piece Danny Mendick.

22 Jul 2021 17:15:29
Buddy, your thought process is hilarious and precious.

1. State a wild claim. "Story can be had for a paltry return of 3 40 FV prospects. "

2. Beg the question. "Hey, since Story is only going to be had for 3 40 FV prospects, why is Kris Bryant's trade not much different than your Story trade ideas?

3. Condescend when you realize that begging the question isn't working.

It's an interesting strategy. I'm not sure it's working out for you all that well. But I admire the hustle.

22 Jul 2021 17:25:45
What your trade for Trevor Story was missing was actual players who will convince the Colorado Rockies to hand over Trevor John Story, and names that will beat out the offers of other baseball teams.

Impressively, your trade idea matched neither of those criteria.

22 Jul 2021 17:37:45
MrOctober, you should have kept reading. This is from MLB's Website:

"if the team that loses the free agent is a REVENUE-SHARING RECIPIENT, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2020 MLB Draft. "

Okay, so that paragraph doesn't pertain to the Chicago Cubs, who aren't a revenue-sharing recipient. So what rules pertain to them? Next paragraph:

"If the team that loses the player DOES NOT RECEIVE revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. "

This is where the Cubs' pick would be. The size of the contract doesn't matter. Kris Bryant could feel charitable and go to the Rays on a $1M contract. The Cubs would still be stuck in this spot, providing they don't exceed the luxury tax, of which, they then get a pick after the fourth round.

22 Jul 2021 23:24:58
Ramos + Sheets + Thompson > Canario.

I am truly sorry.

23 Jul 2021 04:37:06
Might want to reevaluate your player values after that Nelson Cruz trade.

24 Jul 2021 01:48:57
Why? Tampa Bay was in a serious roster crunch, and have about 3 billion prospects who are Rule 5 Eligible. Guys like Joe Ryan weren't making the roster in 2022.

Context matters in these deals. And trying to say, "Nelson Cruz got this, therefore, Kris Bryant will get this" is a fools errand and it has NEVER been a rule that ends up being consistent.

If you want, you could point to the Cubs giving up Gleyber Torres for Chapman. Why don't we see those deals? Because no one has the context the Cubs had in 2016. No one.

26 Jul 2021 18:53:13
Chi Sox - Per Fangraphs own rankings, a 45M FV prospect is worth 6M, a 40 FV is worth 2M.

Canario (45M) = 6M
Ramos + Thompson + Sheets = 6M.

Add in Dubon, and the Giants offer is significantly better.

I'm truly sorry.

26 Jul 2021 22:25:10
Nate, you wouldn't be referencing a FG article from 2018 now would you?

Remember, those values have no bearing on today's market. You said so yourself. So maybe the difference between Machado (or Bryant) and Story's values is in fact an addition of Dubon?

Wooooow, see how that works?

26 Jul 2021 22:29:53
My trade for Story was way too light you say, but when you take the value amassed from Sheets, Thompson and Ramos and add a AAAA-guy like Dubon, then, according to you, they could get a player worth more than a win better than Story season.

Interesting string of logic there.

27 Jul 2021 02:44:36
I'm literally referencing the BOARD and the numbers associated with the Farm Rankings Leaderboard, as they currently exist on the website, right now.

Seriously, this game you're playing is beyond petty, bro. You're literally trying to find ANYTHING to nitpick.

Go ask your mom to make you some Kool-Aid and play some Minecraft. You clearly need a break.

27 Jul 2021 05:42:02
You literally posted Abreu's splits vs. .500+ teams and sub-.500 teams, and I'm nit-picking?

Right.

27 Jul 2021 11:58:53
Umm, that's, I don't know, slightly relevant to the conversation.

Saying, "wow, you posted information from 2018 LULULLULULZ" and then being colossally wrong not only makes you look insanely dumb and petty, it also makes you look like an arrogant fill-in-the-blank.

Seriously. You're so incapable to accepting that you're wrong that you had to try and throw something super petty out there.

It makes it look worse when you were dead wrong LOLOLOLOLOL.

19 Jul 2021 04:18:38
Cubs/ Blue Jays

Blue Jays: Craig Kimbrel

Cubs: Jordan Groshans SS/ 2B, Eric Pardinho SP.

Agree1 Disagree10

19 Jul 2021 20:41:43
Drastic overpay by the Blue Jays.

29 Jul 2021 04:02:58
Yeah, the Jays won't give up those prospects for a player that probably won't even help them get to a WC game this year. I think you will see some higher end prospects moved in the off season for the Jays to make a serious run in the next couple years.

19 Jul 2021 04:09:36
Cubs/ Red Sox

Red Sox receive: Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel

Cubs receive: Bryan Mata SP, Gilberto Jimenez OF, Nick Yorke 2B, Brian Bello SP

Red Sox need to strengthen their bullpen and 1B has been arguably their worst producing position on their team. You aren’t going to win with a platoon of Danny Santana and Bobby Dalbec. Red Sox give up a number of quality prospects here but they have a crowded OF, and none of these guys will be reaching the majors to help them compete in the near future.

Cubs get a solid haul here with a lot of upside. Kimbrel’s value is at an all time high so they need to receive a legitimate package to move him. Tagging on Rizzo makes too much sense here and gets them an extra prospect and some more quantity.

Agree0 Disagree8

19 Jul 2021 21:24:21
Kimbrel's "value" isn't at an all-time high. You have two scenarios with his contract:

A) His option fails to vest and he's a free agent this winter, thus a rental
B) His option vests and his acquiring team is on the hook for a $16M reliever.

In situation A, I don't see a single team shelling out a Top 100 prospect (like the Blue Jays do above) for a rental. And I see it even less if teams have to pay him $16M next year.

Kimbrel's value is puffed up by the media, and while I suspect the Cubs will get something interesting for him, I think Cubs fans will be underwhelmed.

21 Jul 2021 12:47:41
Kimbrel’s value is most definitely the highest it will ever be going forward. He will land a respectable package of prospects. We will see when teams get desperate towards the deadline and the type of prospect haul he pulls.

21 Jul 2021 14:26:50
That's fair, but it still doesn't help your trade. In fact, it hurts it.

If Kimbrel will never be this valuable again, then why would teams give up a 50 FV prospect for him? I don't see the elite clubs making a desperate move for him.

I could see Kimbrel drawing in a 45 FV guy, but it'd likely be a fringier player, someone with 45 FV upside, but also could be a massive bust. Think someone like Jairo Solis from Houston or Rafael Marchan out of Philadelphia.

I'm willing to be wrong, because teams do crazy things at the trade deadline, but I don't see anyone desperate enough to blow it open for Craig Kimbrel. I just don't.

27 Jul 2021 03:34:39
Chafin gets a 40+ and another prospect but Kimbrel will only land a fringe 45? Loooool.

27 Jul 2021 04:23:05
Make that two 40+ prospects according to Fangraphs. Again, you may want to reevaluate the way you value players.

27 Jul 2021 17:49:43
But Adam Frazier, who is not a rental, got a 40 FV and 2 35+ FVs.

It's almost as if:

A. You can't compare trades and
B. Pitchers have ALWAYS gotten more at the trade deadline than position players.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:19
More context: Andrew Chafin is making south of 3M this year. The Cubs are likely taking on most of the remainder of that deal.

Craig Kimbrel will make almost DOUBLE that amount, just for the next 60 games of the regular season.

Kimbrel also has the potential of his option vesting. He only needs about 75 games finished (thanks to the pro-rated amount from the shortened season), and is currently at 46. In other words, a team that desperately needs him (enough to pony up a 50-FV prospect) could be on the hook for a 16M reliever in 2022.

A team that may not need him 29 of their next 60 games, thus his option not vesting ABSOLUTELY isn't going to give up a 50-FV prospect for him.

That contract, and the potential for Kimbrel's option to vest, is enough for teams to balk at the asking price.

Now, if the Cubs were to guarantee some serious money should his option vest (8-10M), then I could maybe see it.

14 Jul 2021 04:19:54
White Sox/Rockies

White Sox get:
Trevor Story SS

Rockies get:
Matthew Thompson RHP
Bryan Ramos INF
Gavin Sheets 1B/OF

Agree4 Disagree11

14 Jul 2021 15:55:22
LOL. AT this point, unless you're getting a lesser-touted rental like Eduardo Escobar, the White Sox are going to have to give up Kelley, Vera, or Cespedes.

Literally every team in baseball would best that offer for Trevor Story.

14 Jul 2021 17:47:20
Escobar is "lesser-touted" I guess, but I'm not so sure Arizona gets a lot less for him compared to what Colorado gets for Story. The former has been 16% better at the plate - I think that's notable. Story gives you the defensive advantage, for sure, but then again, what's the market for Story?

Everyone says Oakland, but will they pay the money?

OK, maybe the Yankees would be a fit, but will they even be buyers in a couple weeks? Are they bench Gleyber or Voit, or sending Stanton to LF every day?

The Mets at 2B? Maybe.

The Reds make sense if they feel like they're actually contenders, but they might need a SP more than anything.

Point is, I don't really see anyone shoveling out a "huge" package for a 92 wRC+ as a 2.5 month rental. And yes, I do know Story is on a 3.8-win pace and is a very good player even with below-average offensive production, which I why I'm offering 3 solid prospects.

Colorado simply needs to get more value then the comp pick they'd receive next summer from Story's departure. They get 3 good looking prospects who are collectively much more valuable than that pick. I'm not really surprised that you hate the group of 3, but evaluators love Ramos and what he has done this year, Thompson is projectable albeit still quite a project, and Sheets is clearly a ML ready bat without a long-term spot in Chicago.

Not even saying Kelley, Vera, or Cespedes would be completely off the table either. I just think the Rox would like this package.

14 Jul 2021 18:35:49
I was reliably told, by you, that 40 FV prospects were not "solid prospects. " When I brought up the Mark Melancon trade and said they got a great return, you scoffed at it, because Tristan Beck was a 40 FV.

Now, it's a solid return? It's incredible how you speak out of both sides of your mouth when it's convenient to the argument you're trying to make.

Also, if you think that the Chicago White Sox are the only team who make an offer for Trevor Story, you're out of your mind. And it doesn't even have to be a "huge" package. The return the Rockies are getting is super underwhelming.

That "MLB Ready" player has 47 plate appearances. Once again, you lambasted me for touting Darin Ruf over 100 PAs, but Sheets only needs 47? Seriously, your arguments are so lacking in awareness over what you've said before. It's almost like you just say a bunch of nonsense and hope no one remembers.

Ramos and Thompson are 40-grade prospects in single-A. They are definitely the guys who get tossed in as add-ons, and certainly not the main grabs you think they are. They are, by every account, run-of-the-mill prospects.

Thompson is not a "good looking prospect: by any means. He's nearly walking a batter per inning in Single-A and giving up an earned run per as well.

If this is the ONLY offer the Rockies get for Trevor Story, I could maybe see it. But we both know it won't be the only offer, and we both know that someone else will offer something better.

Perhaps, as you keep talking, TRY to remember what you've said before. Then you can either denounce it as the nonsense we both knew it was OR you can try and keep it up and stay consistent.

But you won't do either.

15 Jul 2021 02:52:46
I don't currently have either Ramos or Sheets as 40 FVs. You're obviously free to disagree with me as there's clearly no science to FV grades. Thompson has thrown all of 25 professional innings with control issues - denounce him and his future outlook through that stretch if that's how you evaluate prospects.

And I'm not saying Sheets headlines a major deal because of 47 solid PAs. I'm saying those PAs help confirm his status as a good pro hitter who's never had a wRC+ below 120 in any of his full pro seasons. It would be a nice piece for Colorado. Ramos, albeit young, has looked quite good in Kannapolis as the numbers confirm. It also not like Colorado is looking to reload for a 2022 run either.

The disconnect here (that is, if you're actually trying to break down a potential deal) is that you believe that Story will command a large return even after I outlined his thin market PLUS the fact that someone like Javy Baez could also be available with almost identical trade value.

I just don't agree with that. We could compare the Manny Machado to LAD deal.

Baltimore got Yusniel Diaz (45+), Dean Kremer (40), Breyvic Valera (40) Zach Pop (40) and Rylon Bannon (35) for Machado who had a 155 wRC+ at the time of the deal and was already worth almost 4 WINS through 96 games, that's 2 full wins better than Story.

All that said, I think the value lines up pretty well. You want too make the argument that Colorado demands Norge Vera or Cespedes for some reason, then so be it.

15 Jul 2021 13:38:05
Oh trust me, I'm well aware that you have Sheets and Ramos as 50-55 FV prospects.

Also, Story's market isn't THAT weak. You just think it is because it's the only way you can justify this hilariously bad trade. I'm by no means suggesting that Story will command some 50 FV prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone gives it up.

But if you don't think the Yankees, Reds, A's, or even the Brewers, Astros, Mets, Phillies, or even the Giants or Dodgers (less likely because of the division) wouldn't jump all over the chance to trade 3 40-grade prospects to get Trevor Story for a couple of months, then you're being unrealistic on purpose.

The Rockies will have no problem trading him, and I don't think they'll have to "settle" for a pathetic trade like you just proposed just because some guy on the interwebs thinks the "market isn't there. "

Story will be just fine. His x-stats are similar to his 6-win seasons. .337 xwOBA currently. He's got a BABIP that is 50 points lower than his career numbers. I'd imagine a handful of teams would gladly leverage some farm depth to see if they can get his old production.

It won't be just the White Sox on him. And it won't be just a couple ho-hum 40-FV prospects going back to Colorado.

15 Jul 2021 13:45:47
Let's explore your "market" ideas:

Oakland- They are likely out to begin with, per their own statements.

Yankees- Would they bench Torres? Considering he's hitting 82 wRC, it's very possible.

Mets- They could try Story at 3B. They are reportedly looking at updates there. It'd be an odd fit, but it's not the first time a team has put s player at a new spot mid-season after a trade.

Reds- Yes, they need SP. They also need a SS. And they have a lot of prospect capital to get both. ESPECIALLY if all it will take is a handful of 40-FV prospects to land Story. Believe it or not, but teams can make more than one trade.

This doesn't, again, account for the Brewers, who look for middle infielders like Derek Jeter looks for supermodels. Or the Dodgers who will gladly take the depth. Or the Astros who can't keep Correa or Bregman healthy. Or the Mariners, who are always wildcards for any trade. Or the Phillies, who may not get Bohm back this year.

If all it takes is the package you put forth, LOTS of teams will be in on Trevor Story.

15 Jul 2021 15:04:44
This is helping my point. You just set out scenarios where maybe, possibly, kinda sorta one could find a reason to believe that each team could make a move for Story.

The Reds and Yankees are really not that good. Neither are the Mets, but the NL East can't ever figure it out on a year-to-year basis. Plus the Yankees are adamant about not crossing the luxury tax threshold which a Story acquisition would do. *This team* is the one they're going to pay extra for? Oakland is out too because of money I guess?

Would the White Sox be the team that currently makes the MOST sense out these teams, even with then moving him to 2B? It actually kind of looks that way. Do I see it as a likely transaction? No. Actually, i'd be somewhat surprised if Escobar isn't back in Chicago by the end of the month, but Story is the more exciting grab.

You say lots of teams would outbid the package; then who and why and with what?

The other teams you mentioned:

The Brewers have 115 and 128 wRC+ in the middle infield respectively. Could they move Peterson to third to make it work? I guess.

The Dodgers could maybe possibly make sense, but then you're likely shifting Chris Taylor out of an everyday role. I wouldn't do that. They're also going to need a SP, especially if Bauer is unable to come back this year and 1 or 2 proven RPs. And we're talking in division.

The Astros have Bregman, Correa, Altuve and Gurriel on their infield. Unless one of them suffers a season-ending injury in the next couple of weeks, he ain't going to Houston, no matter how dinged up they are.

The Mariners in an acquire and attempt to resign kind of thing? I guess maybe, but let's be honest, they're not real championship contenders this year.

Now the Phillies I could actually see if they feel like they can track down the Mets and if they're done waiting on Bohm to produce this year.

Even if you don't consider this batch of teams a "weak" market, you can't say its a strong one. The package Colorado gets back is most likely headlined by 45 FV prospect, if that. Again, Machado only got a 45+ for a 4-win 1st half. And if the Cubs start testing the waters with Baez's name, then that only hurts Story's value.

15 Jul 2021 20:25:51
I'm saying that if all it takes is a package of middling prospects to get Trevor Story, lots of teams would take the gamble. Heck, the Giants don't exactly have a spot for him, but I'd bet you anything, if Zaidi could get him for 3 40-FV prospects, he'd do it almost immediately.

As far as specific teams, you can try and explain it away, but they all make sense.

The Brewers could match or best that offer and stick Story at 2B or 3B (or moved Adames somewhere) . They could certainly use the help.

The Dodgers would simply move Gavin Lux's 90 wRC+ to the bench (or realistically, OKC) and put Story there.

The Astros currently have Bregman healing a major injury, which put him on the 60-Day IL. And if all it takes is a measly group of ho-hum prospects, who the heck cares if he acts as a bit of depth and you move guys to the bench and mix-and-match? Again, if it's not going to take a significant prospect, why not?

The Mariners, who are just 3.5 games out of the Wild Card, might see a chance. Story would be an upgrade over Dylan Moore (75 wRC+) and possibly even J. P. Crawford going forward. He'd boost them at the right time, especially for a package of 40-grade dudes.

The Mets? You might not think they are good, but they are #1 in the NL East and hold a 6.5 game lead. They'll add depth, and Story would fit right in. They are reportedly looking at 3B additions, and could mix it up and try Story there.

The Phillies, again, could fit.

Heck, if all it took to land Trevor Story was 3 40-grade prospects, I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox did something, and moved Devers to 1B.

The point is, Henry, if it's not going to take very much to land Trevor Story, which you so adamantly believe (mostly because that's the only scenario in which the White Sox can land any player), then Story's market grows, exponentially.

Yours is a classic case, and you do it all the time, hilariously, where you try to pretend a team (in your case, the White Sox) is the ONLY team who could realistically land anyone, and you pretend that no one else can afford him, needs him, or should get him.

And then you try to downplay how good that player is, mostly because what is really going on is you're trying to cope with not wanting to give up the minimal talent the White Sox have in terms of farm system to acquire him.

The fact is, Story is going to command a pretty decent return. It's not going to be a top 100 prospect, but it's also not going to be led by a 40-grade kid, either.

For the White Sox, I think it HAS to start with Jared Kelley, and even then, I don't think that's the best offer the Rockies would get.

15 Jul 2021 20:59:18
Now, while totally futile, because we both know you'll nitpick on each of these (mostly to distract everyone from your laughably bad trade), but here's a deal I think each of those teams could make for Story. All of which, mind you, would top the White Sox offer:

Reds- Rece Hinds (45), Aristides Aquino, Graham Ashcraft (40)
Yankees- T. J. Sikkema (40+), Oswaldo Cabrera (40+), Everson Pereira (40+)
Mets- J. T. Ginn (45), Alexander Ramirez (40+), Junior Santos (40)
Brewers- Mario Feliciano (45), Tristan Lutz (40+)
Dodgers- Alex De Jesus (45), Robinson Ortiz (40+), Jerming Rosario (40)
Astros- Peter Solomon (40+), Freudis Nova (40+), Misael Tamaraz (40)
Mariners- Brandon Williamson (40+), Connor Phillips (40), Jonatan Clase (40)
Phillies- Mickey Moniak (45), Jamari Baylor (40+), Kendall Simmons (35+)

Again, these are hypothetical. I have no idea how any of these teams value the specific players. But you'll notice one thing in common: no trades include significant, blue-chip prospects. All of them include some sort of high-upside or current MLB guy, and none of them would hamstring their team, meaning the team could make the trade and not lose much sleep.

You currently offered: Thompson (40), Ramos (40), Sheets (40). EVEN if that would be the best Story returns, then every other team above would offer lesser packages, and do so excitedly. The White Sox wouldn't even be in the top 5 offers.

If the White Sox offered something like: Kelley (45), Bailey (40+), and Sheets (40), it might get the Rockies attention.

But the original trade, as you gave it, is neither good, nor would it be the "best". Because, again, if that's all it takes, then suddenly, others will feel differently about the "market".

To use an example, if a free agent says, "I demand $100M", then his market is only teams that have money and a need for his spot. But if he says, "I'll play for $5M a year", now, teams will change their plans and find a way to fit him in.

You've made Trevor Story a $5M player. Everyone will try for that if that's what his value really is.

16 Jul 2021 07:42:08
I'm curious as to how Manny Machado in 2018, an all around better player than Story, coming off a first half where he was worth almost 4 wins with a 155 wRC+, returns a 45+ POS, 2 40 Ps, a 40 POS and a 35+ POS, yet Story undoubtedly gets a 45 POS plus a 40+ POS and a 35+ POS, for example.

By these prospect values, Story's return is only worth $2 million less than Machado's for a full 2 wins less.

If I go out on some wild ride and promote Ramos to a 40+ FV to update FG rankings that haven't been touched in 8 months, I don't think it's that crazy for a guy that's hit some of his upside this year. I could make very reasonably make a strong case for the same promotion for Sheets. I think it's safe to say he's going to produce more than 0.2 fWAR (the mean 40 POS value) over the course of his career. He passes the eye test at the plate and has looked very comfortable thus far. The Rockies could give him an extended look, if anything, as a cheap pre-arb 1B for a team embarking on a long, dark rebuild.

If it's fathomable to promote those two guys (maybe you only want FanGraphs to update their playoff odds, not their prospect lists) and add Thompson, that puts the return's value around $9 million which, in my opinion, bears a much better relationship to the Machado deal given their production.

It's really getting to the splitting hairs point now because teams value all of these guys differently, but I don't think teams are going to start including 45s for Story, especially when keeping their heads above the .500 mark for some of them hasn't been that easy.

I'm willing to say I'm undervaluing Story here even though I love his upside. His road splits are still daunting, however.

16 Jul 2021 17:26:51
Yeah, when you're offering 3 40-FV prospects for Trevor Story, saying you're "undervaluing" him is a massive understatement.

For what it's worth, there's a lot of skepticism among guys at Fangraphs, most recently, Dan Szymborski, regarding Sheets. Not that Colorado's FO is that forward-thinking, but I doubt he gets them very excited, especially since they have enough corner-infield types that are already MLB-ready or near-MLB ready.

And yes, Story's value isn't that much lower than Machado's. I don't think teams are going to remotely care what Machado netted in a trade FOUR YEARS AGO. Those were two completely different teams with different needs and circumstances.

The Rockies, for whatever reason, haven't been interested in trading Trevor Story. I doubt they'll suddenly change course for a lackadaisical return. They'll just get the extra pick.

16 Jul 2021 19:02:48
Eh, I don't actually think the Rockies are really "ok" with not moving Story. Ideally they want to best that comp pick's value. I think they are just trying to improve their position as much as possible by giving buyers the impression that they're standing ok with standing pat. I think it's somewhat of a false narrative. Ten again, are we putting a lot of faith in that org to make the mot sound decision possible?

MLB orgs love negotiating through the media these days. They all have their favorite insiders that they like to purposely leak information to, so it's always interesting to try an dissect what is actually going on in reality.

Also, is the large amount of "skepticism" on Sheets just Szymborski literally saying the 3 words "I am skeptical" in a FG chat? because I'm struggling to a. ) figure out how that amounts to "lots of skepticism" or b. ) where exactly the other skepticism is.

And I guess you could say 2018 Baltimore and 2021 Colorado are different in terms of who's running them, but I actually think their situations are quite similar - so, like, the exact opposite of what you said.

17 Jul 2021 19:10:58
LOL. I said "most recently". There have been other chats where Sheets is brought up with less than excited responses from experts.

Also, the 40 FV that comes from Fangraphs is probably a pretty solid sign that there's a healthy dose of skepticism coming from the Fangraphs camp.

And just because you want to believe that 2018 Baltimore and 2021 Colorado are similar situations doesn't make it true. They are completely different organizations ran by different individuals. They have different organizational values and approaches. To assume that Colorado is seeking the same, better, or worse deal than Manny Machado is nothing more than you trying to justify your yet again putrid, yet laughable, trade idea.

It's really just a bad idea coming from you. And you refuse to just take it and move on.

18 Jul 2021 01:25:28
The comparison makes sense. I presented a pretty objective example. You have no real response, no insightful critique, but yet it’s putrid and laughable.

To assume Colorado is somewhat comparing a return to Machado makes perfect sense. They’d do really well to get as much as Baltimore got for Machado, it’s probably one of the first trades they bring up for comparison. It’s actually how a lot of contract discussions and trade value discourse is handled.

But by all means, tell me more about how it’s a bad idea, even though I lay out reasons x, y, z of why it’s a comparable situation. Nate doesn’t like the comparison for no specific reason, so we must throw it out the window folks, lol.

18 Jul 2021 18:12:32
I'm not saying it's a bad comparison, but I'm not saying it's a perfect one, either. The Machado trade was 4 years ago with completely different teams, front office folks, and situations. To suggest that any trade has to use the Manny Machado trade as a basis is pretty silly. It might, but it also might not.

You should probably go look up "objective". Because I'd argue that a player's value is 100% subjective, as was Machado's.

And I'd bet you next to anything that the Rockies don't care one bit what the 2018 Baltimore Orioles got for Manny Machado as they think about trading Trevor Story in 2021.

Once again, the example is subjective, entirely.

 


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