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13 Nov 2018 09:56:21
Padres get 3b nick senzel
Reds get sp Mackenzie gore

Both are un proven and top 15 prospects.
Reds keep Suarez and Scooter Gennett gets a multi year deal. Reds get their starter and senzel isn't blocked anymore.

Agree1 Disagree6

13 Nov 2018 10:19:44
This is good. Very realistic. Both teams have a need for what they get - the Padres a 3rd baseman and the Reds good pitching. But I think a Jonathan India (instead of Senzel) for Adrian Morejon (instead of Gore) swap would be more realistic because it means both teams take a lower risk. I like your thinking though.

13 Nov 2018 15:05:13
Top prospect for top prospect swaps are so rare. I can't even recall very many, if any at all.

13 Nov 2018 16:29:05
They are incredibly rare, primarily because they know their own guys so well, and as with any prospect, there is a lot of uncertainty involved. So most teams just have more knowledge and confidence in their own prospects.

13 Nov 2018 09:59:59
Could the Rays make these moves during the offseason? We saw them win 90 games in 2018 in a stacked AL East, and AL in general. Here's how they could be legitimate World Series contenders on a limited budget. If this would happen, they have to risk the next 5 and go all in next year:

Sign Brian Dozier - 1/7 (value has never been lower after a disastrous 2018, but still a great hitter)

Sign JA Happ - 2/17 (underrated and the type of move the Rays would make, has plenty of AL East experience)

Sign Jed Lowrie - 2/14 (also the type of move the Rays would pull)

Sign Drew Pomeranz - 1/6 (teams will overlook him, look for the Rays to swoop in and pick him up)

Re-sign Sergio Romo - 1/2

Send Jesus Sanchez, Shane McClanahan, and Lucius Fox to the Marlins for JT Realmuto

Send Brendan McKay and Shane Baz to the Mariners for Edwin Diaz

Send Christian Arroyo and Jose De Leon to the Cardinals for Marcell Ozuna


How would this roster do?

Lineup:
1. Dozier DH
2. Lowrie 3B
3. Realmuto C
4. Ozuna LF
5. Bauers 1B
6. Pham RF
7. Wendle 2B
8. Kiermaier CF
9. Adames SS

Rotation:
1. Snell
2. Happ
3. Pomeranz
4. Yarbrough
5. Glasnow

Bench:
1. Perez C
2. Choi 1B
3. Duffy 3B
4. Lowe 2B

Bullpen:
1. Romo RP
2. Stanek RP
3. Stanek RP
4. Kolarek SU
5. Alvarado SU
6. Roe SU
7. Diaz CL

If this happens, look out for the Rays to win at least 97 games. What are the chances it does happen?

QUESTIONS: SHOULD I KEEP DOING THESE? WHAT TEAMS SHOULD I DO THEM FOR? LET ME KNOW BELOW. ENJOY!

Agree2 Disagree4

13 Nov 2018 10:02:57
Error - I put Stanek twice. I meant to put Anthony Banda there.

13 Nov 2018 13:37:56
Happ, Dozier, Pomeranz, and Lowrie will all sign for more money and some will sign longer term deals.

13 Nov 2018 14:56:35
You seem to struggle with the fact that trades don't happen in a vacuum. If Diaz becomes available (every indication suggests he won't), just about every team is going to offer something for him.

Bauers and Baz isn't horrible, but it's not a top offer, and it would get so quickly outbid by someone else. Start considering the market and recognizing how trades work if you want to continue these.

Also, did you completely ignore the Mike Zunino deal?

13 Nov 2018 15:22:30
Now that the Rays have added Zunino, here is their checklist for the offseason:

- Right handed impact bat: Rays have already been associated with Donaldson and Cruz, as well as trade candidates like Goldschmidt and Jose Martinez

- One traditional starter: They could be big players for someone like Carrasco or a FA like Morton or Cahill

- Back end bullpen arm: Plenty of big names on the FA market, personally I would like them to make a push for Nate Jones, as the White Sox are still rebuilding and the Rays have tons of prospects to offer.

Either way, the Rays not only have 30-40 million to spend this offseason but they also have the prospect capitol to make a big move.

13 Nov 2018 16:27:48
Rays had 30-40M to spend last year. Instead, their owners stole it and they sold any player who made a couple bucks.

I don't think the owners have suddenly begun to care about putting a product on the field this winter.

13 Nov 2018 17:13:52
ummmm. they came into 2018 with a record high payroll and won 90 games. I have no idea what you are talking about in reference to having "30-40M" to spend, that is not accurate at all.

Going into 2019, they only have 35 or so million committed to the roster and are not losing any key players to free agency. In fact, the Rays have even more top prospects on the way close to the major league level. If they set the same payroll restrictions as last season, they would have roughly 30-40 million to spend this offseason. The Rays window for contention is wide open.

I assume you are referencing the Longoria, Dickerson and Odorizzi trades? Let's be honest, Longoria had a horrible year (15% below league average offensively) and Matt Duffy outproduced him by a large margin. for league minimum. Longoria is still owed another 70 million over the next 4 years, the Rays were lucky to get rid of that contract.

Odorizzi had another mediocre year (7-10 4.49 ERA) and the Dickerson trade was about making room for Mallex Smith, who had a better season anyways. The Rays were trying to get younger and open up spots for their top prospects, not just to save money and be cheap.

13 Nov 2018 18:29:58
They traded away almost every player under contract. Kiermaier is their only player with an actual "contract", and that's for only $8M.

Nearly 50% of their payroll in 2018 was moved off the roster. Longoria, Span, Colome, Hechavarria, Archer, Miller, Ramos, Eovaldi. If they make a couple bucks, they get moved. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kiermaier get moved this winter, either. Of the 68M in payroll they had, only half was still on the roster at the end of the season.

Tampa Bay is going to have a really hard time selling the idea of going there when the players and their agents know there's a good chance they are with a new club by July.

And for what it's worth, I can tell you matter of factly that the MLBPA is in the process of filing a grievance against Tampa Bay for not using their revenue sharing money to put players on the field. I think that'll be a huge blow to Tampa Bay, and in looking for new cities, it could be a critical blow if they lose revenue sharing dollars because the owners are greedy pigs.

13 Nov 2018 22:19:51
I know that trades don't happen in a vacuum - these are hypothetical. I didn't actually know that the MLBPA are in a grievance with the Rays, I just thought they were sellers because they didn't think they would contend. As for the signings, I recognize how difficult it is to sell Tampa as an appealing landing spot, but it is something the Rays can't afford if their owners change their ways.

I think they may have started to care about putting a good product on the field though. Remember how they were legit contenders every year from 2008-13? I think the owners might recognize they can do the same with this bunch by adding a few key pieces.

13 Nov 2018 22:21:24
Also I forgot about the Zunino deal, I don't know what happened there haha. They need a backup catcher anyway though. Who knows what could happen? I agree with you in saying that the Realmuto deal has a tiny chance of happening after acquiring Zunino.

14 Nov 2018 23:32:37
This is so full of misinformation, I feel obligated to reply.

First off, you act like you NEED to spend money to be successful. Somehow, if you don't, there is no way you can be deemed successful, is this right?

Secondly, it's old news that the MLBPA filed a grievance against 4 MLB teams, including the Rays, nearly 8 MONTHS AGO. Since then, there has been data produced to back up the claims from these teams, that they were, in fact, spending the same percentage of revenue as all of the big market teams. Thanks for this "new" information? The Rays spent .1% less than the average MLB team, well within the acceptable margin.

https:/ / www. draysbay. com/ 2018/ 2/ 26/ 17054394/ tampa-bay-rays-payroll-salary-spending-dollar-dollar-bills-yall

https:/ / www. tampabay. com/ blogs/ rays/ 2018/ 02/ 27/ players-union-files-grievance-vs-rays-3-other-teams-over-revenue-sharing-spending/

Nowhere close to 50% of the 2018 payroll was moved off the roster. Yes, Longoria's dead contract was moved for Span's contract, which was only a difference of about 4.5 million dollars for 2018. So starting with the opening day payroll of 77 million, the Rays only subtracted 28% of their in-season payroll through trades during the season, not 50%.

Even so, the players they traded away were not worth the money they were being paid. Here are some (all of) the examples that your referenced:

- Longoria: due 70 million over the next 4 years, posted 0.4 WAR and 85 wRC+ in 2018
- Span: Rays saved 6 million dollars for 2018 and the option for 2019 was declined by Seattle for 4 million dollars
- Colome: Rays saved 4.2 million dollars, pitched to a 3.77 FIP after trade
- Hechavarria: Rays saved 1.95 million dollars, worth 0.4 WAR in 2018
- Miller: Rays saved 3.02 million, posted 0.0 WAR and 97 wRC+ in 2018
- Archer: Rays saved 2.06 million for 2018, pitched to a 4.30 ERA after trade
- Ramos: Rays saved 3.74 million
- Eovaldi: Rays saved 660K

Lets look at the players that the Rays had replace these "all-stars"

- Smith (replacing Span) : posted a 3.4 WAR for the season
- Wendle (replacing Miller) : posted a 3.7 WAR for the season
- Duffy (replacing Longoria) : posted a 2.4 WAR for the season
- Adames (replacing Hechavarria) : posted a 1.3 WAR for the season
- Alvarado (replacing Colome) : posted a 2.27 FIP in high leverage situations for the season
- Perez (replacing Ramos) : posted a 89 wRC+ in rookie season after trade
- Lowe (replacing Miller) : posted a 113 wRC+ in rookie season after all-star break
- Meadows (return for Archer trade) : posted 223 wRC+ in 179 PA at AAA after trade
- Glasnow (return for Archer) : posted a 3.47 xFIP after trade for Rays
- Beeks (return for Eovaldi) : posted 2.69 FIP in AAA for 2018

"I think that'll be a huge blow to Tampa Bay, and in looking for new cities, it could be a critical blow if they lose revenue sharing dollars because the owners are greedy pigs. "

Again, your opinion is completely based on lack of information. The Rays currently have a new stadium lined up and have until the end of the year to secure the funding. The Rays are not losing revenue sharing dollars in the future, they are clearly within the mean of revenue percentage spending, which is a much smaller margin than you would suspect.

And again, I feel like I must reiterate, after the Rays traded away all of the players that you referenced, they had the 4th highest winning percentage in baseball. The Rays won 90 games on the year, with a higher winning percentage in the second half after all of these "big money" players were traded away. Do you think that maybe the Rays might just have really talented young players that deserve to play over the overpaid veterans, maybe? And, maybe, they still have these very talented players, with more on the way, under control for very cheap, which gives them financial flexibility this offseason to add more salary?

Weird, I could swear the Rays are in the top 10 for 2019 power rankings. oh wait, they are.

goo.gl/nhzvqi

15 Nov 2018 04:04:49
You don't NEED to spend money. But the players deserve their share of the profits. The Rays, instead of paying the product people came to see, they kept the profits, especially for the second half. They cleared most the money off the books by July/ August.

Just admit, the Rays found a way to win despite having incredibly greedy pigs for owners. I don't care how successful they were when they literally stole money from the players.

They'll lose their revenue sharing if they continue to pocket it instead of putting it on the field (which is what it's purpose is) .

15 Nov 2018 04:10:30
Again, I'm going to laugh when no one wants to go to Tampa Bay this winter. As I've asked, why would they? Why would they sign up to go to a rubbishty stadium, with rubbishty owners, and no fan base, only to get moved to another city in 4 months?

Trust me, agents and the players are well aware of how garbage the situation in Tampa Bay is. And they can continue to win with controllable players, until the MLBPA issues their NEW grievance, which is what I'm referencing. You'll see it come into play sooner or later.

I don't care how many games they win. Their owners are greedy pigs who keep the money from players. The MLBPA will win to get that money dished out to the current roster and the Rays won't have the money to pocket for a new stadium.

Then the team will move back to Montreal, and leave hole that is Tampa. And all will be right in baseball again.

15 Nov 2018 19:36:23
I am going to say this, the Rays were lucky to win 90 games last year. They had basically one starter the whole year, they got lucky with this "opener" concept, but it needs to die before it becomes more of thing. If a team needs a spot starter or an emergency start, then fine. But Tampa has very few fans, most people that live in the area are Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Phillie fans, like the rest of Florida.

15 Nov 2018 20:15:30
Holy crap, man. Is this a baseball forum or a Trump rally? You are so full of hate and rhetoric. Seriously, did the Rays personally do something to you? Does it anger you to see small market teams do well with a low payroll? Wow, dude.

Ok. let's address your concerns:

- Again, the Rays pay the same percentage of their revenue as every other team. “As a percentage, the Rays spent 56.2% of revenue on their players in 2017, which is nearly identical to Lindbergh’s findings for baseball overall. ”

- “until the MLBPA issues their NEW grievance, which is what I'm referencing”…Please feel free to support your claims with links as I have

- Do you think small market teams should be penalized and forced to spend a higher percentage of their revenues than large market teams? The whole point behind revenue sharing was not only to provide financial support to the smaller market clubs, and create a more level playing ground, but also to keep teams in large markets in check.

- The Rays are not tanking. The Rays are a competitive team that just happens to be smart with their money and have a strong farm system. I assume you had a huge issue when the Cubs and Astros tanked? Were their owners “greedy pigs” too? I'd hope so.

- “Incredibly greedy pigs for owners…literally stole money from the players”…Again, this is just false, hateful rhetoric. Stuart Sternberg and his group are well liked and respected in the area. They are doing the best they can with their current situation and are actively trying very hard to improve the Rays future. They are not “literally” stealing from anyone just because they don’t spend more money than they have to.

- You continually fail to recognize that the more expensive, older players the Rays traded away performed worse than the younger cheaper players who replaced them. So you think teams should just roster more expensive, worse players instead of better, cheaper players? Wouldn't that lead to less wins? The Rays GM just finished second for MLB executive of the year, I think most in the baseball world think he's doing a damn good job.

- The MLBPA and the owners created guidelines, of which the Rays are complying.

- If you are so concerned about “money for players, ” how about you focus your energy on getting teams to pay their minor leaguers more money? You know that the average lower-level minor leaguer makes around 1,100 dollars a month? The average AAA players only makes around 10,000 a month. If anything, teams who rely on their minor league depth are actually HELPING these young, poor players make more "money". As soon as one of these minor league players is added to the 40 man roster, they make a minimum of 40 thousand a month, and soon as they make it to the major leagues, they obviously make a base salary of 550+ thousand a year. But you would rather see these spots go to less talented, older guys who already have millions of dollars in the bank?

- You should talk about the MLBPA and owners getting together to make the DH universal. That alone would create 15 job openings right away. A lot of the players who have had a tough time findings jobs of late in free agency are defensively challenged hitters. Making the DH universal would be a huge boon for their market. How about MLB just expands the major league roster to 26 or 27 players? They have been talking about doing this for years. Seems like a more productive suggestion.

- Here are some facts about Tropicana Field:

- Yes, the stadium kinda sucks because it’s a dome. You just don’t get the same baseball atmosphere as you would Fenway, Rigley, etc.

- However, the Rays ownerships has poured a lot of money into making sure the stadium is in excellent condition and is a pleasant experience inside. Having been to Yankee, Shea, and Fenway, I can tell you that the Trop is way cleaner, bigger, and has way more fan experience features inside. It is not a “rubbishty (sp? ) ” stadium.

- The biggest problem with Tropicana Field is the location, not the fan base. The Rays actually have one of the better TV market viewerships in MLB. Where the stadium is located right now, it has by far the smallest residential population within a 30 minute radius than any other MLB team. In fact, it is smaller than some AAA teams. Tampa Bay is quite large, however the stadium is located at the southern most part of Tampa Bay, down in south St. Petersburg. Further, the demographic for this area is full of old retirees, not exactly the young fan base a team needs to thrive.

- The Rays ownership has been working very, very hard for many years on getting a new stadium. Unfortunately, they are still working off of a pre-existing lease that doesn’t even expire until 2027. The Rays ownership have also had to deal with a mayor that refused to let the Rays break their lease. Thankfully, a newly elected mayor has given the Rays the opportunity to secure a new stadium in a better location.

- The Rays have long been plagued by one of the lowest-revenue television deals in baseball. However, The Sports Business Journal reports the Rays are close to a 15-year extension with Fox Sports regional Sun Sports network that will pay on average $82 million per year, almost 3 times more than their current deal. When the Rays secure a new stadium in Tampa and a new television deal, they will be able to attract more fans and corporate support and should be able to dramatically increase their payroll. The Rays management is just desperately trying to get across the finish line and get the process started.

- “I don't care how many games they win. ” Isn’t that the whole point, to win games? If they are smart with their money and can win lots of games despite not throwing their money away, why should they have to spend more? Sure, I completely agree that teams should not be allowed to tank and teams should spend more money to win, but the Rays are winning. The Rays are one of the winningest teams over the past 10 years. Spending more money on older players with no market is not going to make them better, so why do it? The Rays worked very hard to build back up their farm system and now it is starting to bare fruit.

- Have you actually been to Tampa btw? curious.

- In closing, it seems like the biggest issues you have are not with the Rays in particular, but with the collect bargaining agreement that both the owners and the MLBPA agreed upon. Why you insist on taking out these frustrations out on the Rays specifically is beyond me. It's like being angry at a girl for liking the guy with the better sense of humor and personality instead of the guy who spends the most money on her. Sometimes, guys just got game.

15 Nov 2018 21:06:28
Me spending my "energy" going after the Rays actually fits into my ethic. If you believe players should get paid, then it only follows that you should go after those who aren't paying the players.

You seem to think it's okay to systematically withhold the revenue from employees if it means being successful. Which makes your "Trump rally" comment hilariously ironic.

If I owned a business, I could be far more successful in making money if I only paid all my employees eight bucks an hour and just get rid of all those who probably deserve a raise or those who make twelve an hour. I'd be wildly successful, because I'd make more money.

The players deserve the lions share of the profits. I don't care WHO gets that money. Give it to Blake Snell for all I care.

But the owners and front office aren't even being secretive about withholding the profits from the players. And I can't envision players lining up to play there (if Tampa Bay really truly even offers those players anything. We'll see) .

15 Nov 2018 21:17:37
It's so blatantly obvious that Zack Greinke (albeit a VERY smart dude) has flat out said that the Rays are looking to withhold money from the players.

One article put it this way: "The owners save this money and pocket it instead of reinvesting it into the team. Then they’ll turn around, cry poor, and ask residents of Tampa to foot the billion-dollar bill for a new stadium in Ybor City, roughly 25 minutes from their current digs. "

Just accept the truth for what it is: The Rays owners have a new stadium to help finance. And so they're refusing to pay the players, because every penny they pay the players goes against the profits they are trying to generate for themselves.

This isn't cynical, it's something being done right in front of your eyes. And their justification is that it wins games. The Rays ownership are flimflamming the residents better than LeBron did to Akron with "his" school. Pull your head out of the sand and see the truth: They are conning the city into building them a stadium, all the while running to the bank with the profits.

I just really hope the folks in Tampa aren't dumb enough to actually fall for this. I'm not holding out hope.

13 Nov 2018 05:31:35
Could the Yankees make these moves this offseason?

Send Justus Sheffield, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jonathan Holder to the Nationals for Max Scherzer? Yankees eat all of the approximately 90m left on Scherzer's deal.

Send Sonny Gray, and Clint Frazier to the Tigers for Nick Castallenos?

Send Dellin Betances, Tyler Wade, and Chance Adams to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe? (note 1 below)

Send Estevan Florial, and Matt Sauer to the Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt?

Send Aaron Hicks and Jacoby Ellsbury to the Dodgers for Chris Taylor? Yankees take on 15M of the 44M left on Ellsbury's contract. He does have a player option after 2020 though.

Sign Patrick Corbin 5/90? (note 2 below)

Re-sign David Robertson 2/12?


How would this roster do?

1. Renfroe CF
2. Judge RF
3. Goldschmidt 1B
4. Stanton DH
5. Torres 2B
6. Sanchez C
7. Andujar 3B
8. Castallenos SS
9. Taylor LF

Rotation:
1. Scherzer
2. Severino
3. Corbin
4. Tanaka
5. Sabathia

Bench:
1. Gardner
2. Voit
3. Romine
4. Torreyes

Bullpen:
1. Robertson
2. Kahnle
3. Green
4. German
5. Loaisiga
6. Robertson
7. Chapman


Note 1 - Betances has consistently struggled with command to the point he is unreliable in the postseason. The Padres could try to fix him and use him in the future. Chance Adams is overrated, but he could be a nice piece. He is still young. Tyler Wade is a super utility who is still young. That said, he didn't have a great big-league run.

Note 2 - Many have predicted that Corbin will get much more than I have said, but he is from Syracuse and he has consistently said he would love to play in pinstripes. I think he takes a hometown discount.


Please let me know your thoughts. I have already done a "possible winter moves" sheet for the Dodgers and I will continue doing it for other teams as well.

Agree2 Disagree7

13 Nov 2018 06:26:15
As a padres fan that’s a lot for Hunter Renfroe. Lucky if you get only chance Adams.

13 Nov 2018 07:03:47
The trades seem unrealistic. But I think Corbin is a no-brainer for New York. His comments of wanting to play in NY make sense.

I don't know how much of a discount they'd get, but I don't think your projection is too far off what he'd get anywhere else.

13 Nov 2018 14:10:33
None of these trades are remotely good. I think it would take more to get Scherzer, who I doubt the Nationals would trade. The Castellanos trade doesn't make any sense. I also thought he was 3rd baseman. The Renfroe trade is really unnecessary, they have way to many outfielders already. They aren't interested in Goldschmidt and it would probably take more to get him. The Dodgers trade makes zero sense, the Dodgers have plenty of outfielders and if they Yankees find a partner for Ellsbury, it would take more than just eating 14 million. Finally Corbin is going to get over 100 million.

13 Nov 2018 14:58:26
Castellanos isn't a third baseman anymore. He's one of three 3B since 2000 who've had a worse season defensively at 3B since Andujar, for what it's worth.

So, no, definitely not a 3B.

13 Nov 2018 15:00:51
And Castellanos as a SHORTSTOP?

Do you even watch any of the guys you're talking about? Castellanos and Andujar on the left side of the infield would be so comically bad, they might lose 10 games just by those two buffoons alone.

I didn't even see you sneak that gem in there. That's hilarious.

13 Nov 2018 19:09:51
The following is a list of all the games Nick Castellanos has played at shortstop since being drafted at age 18:

13 Nov 2018 02:15:45
Some ideas for if the Indians completely tear it down...


Brewers get: Jose Ramirez
Indians get: Keston Hiura, Corey Ray, Orlando Arcia



Astros get: Corey Kluber
Indians get: Forrest Whitley, Yordan Alvarez, JB Bukauskas


Braves get: Trevor Bauer
Indians get: Kyle Wright, Austin Riley

Phillies get: Francisco Lindor, Brad Hand
Indians get: Alec Bohm, Adnois Medina, Scott Kingery


Yankees get: Edwin Encarnacion
Indians get: Albert Abreu, Jordan Montgomery


Rockies get: Carlos Carrasco
Indians get: Colton Welker, Antonio Senzatela


Top 100 prospects (according to MLB.com) and their ranks the Indians would get if these trades happened:

- Forrest Whitley (8)
- Kyle Wright (29)
- Keston Hiura (30)
- Yordan Alvarez (42)
- Austin Riley (43)
- Alec Bohm (50)
- Adonis Medina (64)
- Albert Abreu (85)
- Colton Welker (94)

If you factor in Triston McKenzie (38), and Nolan Jones (84), the Indians have 11 top 100 prospects. In the miraculous scenario these deals are possible, should the Indians take them or not?

Agree4 Disagree8

13 Nov 2018 03:30:05
Nowhere close to enough for Ramirez or Lindor. The Indians will start asking for Mike Trout prices on those players. Regardless if you think that's fair, that's going to be the price tag.

13 Nov 2018 06:45:32
Lol they wouldn’t get Lindor and hand if they offered them the whole farm.

12 Nov 2018 03:57:28
Yankees trade Frazier-Acevedo

Jays trade Stroman-Smoak

Jays are light in the OF and Pitcher Prospects

Yankees could use a first baseman. Smoak is a great defender and good switch hitting power bat

Stroman should bounce back from injury riddled season. Doesn't quite fit Jays rebuild timeline anymore but is cheap and controllable for a couple more years.

Agree3 Disagree4

12 Nov 2018 06:11:07
I think that the Jays would give up one of the 2 for that package, but not both. Maybe if you kicked in/ replaced Florial with Frazier they would have a better chance at landing both.

12 Nov 2018 17:53:49
That's selling awfully low on Stroman, in my opinion.

13 Nov 2018 00:33:10
Yeah probably. He still has a chance to be really good. Is Frazier not the prospect he once was or something? He'll have a hard time getting in that Yankees outfield.

13 Nov 2018 03:31:28
Scouts are mixed on Frazier. The concussions are a legitimate concern. But I don't think he's really the player everyone thought he was.

And honestly, the Blue Jays have better young OF they can play and seek better prospects for Stroman.

12 Nov 2018 02:12:03
Could the Dodgers make these moves during the offseason?

Send Kenley Jansen, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig to the Red Sox for Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez? Red Sox eat Kemp's salary.

Sign Zach Britton for 3 years, 24 mil?

Send Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo to the Braves for Ronald Acuna JR?

Send Joc Pederson, Keibert Ruiz and Dustin May to the Cardinals for Matt Carpenter?

Sign Nathan Eovaldi for 5 years, 90 mil?


Hypothetically, how would this roster do?

Lineup:
1. Andrew Benintendi LF
2. Justin Turner 3B
3. Matt Carpenter 1B
4. Cody Bellinger CF
5. Corey Seager SS
6. Ronald Acuna JR RF
7. Max Muncy 2B
8. Yasmani Grandal C
9. P

Rotation:
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Nathan Eovaldi
3. Eduardo Rodriguez
4. Rich Hill
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Bench:
1. Chris Taylor
2. David Freese
3. Austin Barnes
4. Kike Hernandez

Bullpen:
1. Pedro Baez
2. Dylan Floro
3. Ryan Madson
4. Julio Urias
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Scott Alexander
7. Alex Wood
8. Zach Britton

Agree4 Disagree7

12 Nov 2018 02:50:46
In trade one, the Red Sox take over 60M in salary, get older, and get rid of two extremely valuable, controllable players? Of course a Yankees fan would want them to do that. If you could have negative percentages, that would be the chances the Red Sox would even entertain the trade. It's so laughably in the Dodgers' favor.

Why would the Braves trade Acuna? They have a glut of pitchers they can give a go at and still keep Acuna. It's not as if they are hurting for young starting pitching.

12 Nov 2018 06:04:54
Is it that much in the Dodgers favor? Kenley Jansen is just about the best closer in the game, even though his 2018 wasn't as good as we've come to expect (largely health related) . Yasiel Puig is a great asset in the outfield, especially on the defensive side with his arm and speed. He also hit 23 home runs in 2018, and 28 in 2017, in Dodger Stadium (a pitcher's park) . Not to mention he's still only 27. Albeit true that Matt Kemp is overpaid, he had a nice bounceback year last year. 290, 21 HR, and 85 RBI, so it's not like he's a drag. He hit 35 home runs in 2016 just before an injury plagued 2017. Hanley Ramirez is off the books, as are Ian Kinsler and Brandon Philips. So it's not like their payroll goes up that much from last year.

Benintendi is dispensable to the Red Sox. Their outfield consists of Mookie, JD Martinez, JBJ, and now Puig if this were to happen. Their starting pitching is stronger than any other team bar the Astros. David Price is trending upward. 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA, and he has improved each year since 2016. Expect that to keep going up if he stays healthy. Rodriguez is controllable, but the Red Sox don't need him as much as they need an elite closer like Jansen (Kimbrel is a FA this year. ) . Not everything I think about Red Sox trade deals is biased by my Yankee fandom.

As for the Acuna deal, you can see the Dodgers rotation is stacked if they trade for Rodriguez and sign Eovaldi. Joc Pederson is good, but he's not Acuna. Acuna (hypothetically) learns how to play right now that Puig is gone.

The Braves get more young pitching, making prospects like Kyle Wright trade chips for their sustained success that's bound to happen. The NL East is a straight up joke, especially now that Harper is going to leave. That said, the Phillies are on the rise.
Alex Verdugo is a great hitter. He has a bright future and would take over for Acuna out in LF.

Again this is all hypothetical, but I'm interested to hear how you think this would impact all the teams in the above.

Also, do you think the Carpenter trade is realistic? Zach Britton is from LA so can you see him ending up in Dodger blue? Could Eovaldi return to his old team?

12 Nov 2018 15:13:53
1. Jansen's trade value has never been lower. And 2018 was his cheapest season of his current contract. He's still owed nearly 60M, with no real clue as to whether the heart condition gets better. His health issues aren't normal baseball things that most pitchers recover from. I with Jansen the best, but no team is taking that on.

2. I'm not saying Puig isn't good, but he's a free agent after 2019. As is Kemp, who is ridiculously expensive.

3. He's not "dispensable" Pre-arb players who put up 4.3 WAR are not dispensable. He's over twice as valuable as Puig (1.8 WAR) and nearly twice as valuable as JBJ (2.8). His value is also significantly greater due to the fact that he costs the Red Sox a league minimum contract.

4. THE ATLANTA BRAVES ARE NOT TRADING RONALD ACUNA! Move along. Okay, we'll be realistic. If the Dodgers trade Kershaw (and cover his entire salary), Seager, Bellinger, and Buehler, sure the Braves would do it. Otherwise, this is horribly unrealistic.

5. I don't know why the Cardinals would move Carpenter after the season he just had. Contending teams don't trade away 5-win players.

13 Nov 2018 01:44:57
1. Didn't think about the heart problem - my bad. But his heart condition was largely caused by Coors Field, which isn't a problem in the AL East. Best wishes to Jansen. Regardless, he is as good as it gets, and fills the massive void left by Kimbrel. You are right in saying the heart issue lowers is value.

2. JD is a free agent after next year as well, so is Sale, so is Bogaerts, so is Nunez, so is Porcello, and so are many many other Red Sox players. Mookie Betts is a FA the year after as well. Their last realistic year to win it all for the next little while is next year. They will have a lot of FA's after next year, but it means they should go all in while they can.

3. The Red Sox outfield is stacked, with more help from Kemp and Puig regardless of value.

4. The Braves would actually win this trade, but I know it won't happen. I remind you that this whole thing was an outside-the-box hypothetical idea.

5. The Cardinals will either go all in or all out. Even if they go all in, I don't think they can compete with the best AL teams. Not even the NL teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves (or even Phillies with youngsters like Aaron Nola, and a lot of money to spend. ) The Carpenter idea was if they realize they just aren't good enough to win it all in 2019. Even if they do contend, pieces like Joc Pederson could help them. If they decide to go all in, they have Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz if the trade happens.

Do you think the Britton and Eovaldi deals are realistic?

13 Nov 2018 03:27:16
Puig, Jansen and Kemp combined WAR in 2018: 3.8
Benintendi: 4.3

Puig, Jansen and Kemp combined projected salary in 2019: 51M
Benintendi projected salary in 2019: 650,000.

So, you're getting about 88% the production for 7800% of the price. It's literally 78 times the price tag for WORSE production.

If you think that's a good idea, mail me a check for 51 dollars. I'll send you one back for 65 cents. And we'll call it even.

13 Nov 2018 03:45:59
That's good.

11 Nov 2018 04:12:42
Yankees get: Jose Berrios
Twins get: Luke Voit, Chance Adams, Jonathan Loaisiga.

Just an idea. Jose Berrios has really fallen under the radar. Any thoughts?

Agree10 Disagree9

11 Nov 2018 05:29:21
I wouldn't give up that much for Berrios, until he proves himself, don't care that he has "fallen under the radar".

11 Nov 2018 06:13:46
I mean he is an all star who has had 2 14-win seasons. I'm a Yankees fan btw. If Cashman can bring him here for that group I'm all for it. What I meant by under the radar is overlooked.

11 Nov 2018 19:36:28
Have you seen the cost of controllable pitching? Marco Gonzales landed the Cardinals Tyler O’Neill.

Not one of the players you listed has that kind of upside, and Berrios is a significantly better pitcher.

A 24-year-old, pre-arb starter with two straight seasons around 3 WAR is going to require some seriously elite talent, not sloppy seconds. Start thinking Andujar + Sheffield.

11 Nov 2018 21:46:11
Yes I have seen the cost of controllable pitching - take a look at the Sonny Gray deal, who was in a very similar position to Berrios the offseason before he was traded to the Yankees. Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, and Jorge Mateo. None of them were top 100 prospects at the time, besides Fowler who was 98 according to MLB. com. And none of them were healthy at the time of the deal. Voit has tremendous upside and is still only 27.

He hit 333 with 14 home runs in 39 games with the Yankees. If that's not upside, I don't know what is. Jonathan Loaisiga is a top 100 prospect. He was very good in his short stint with the Yankees. Chance Adams has an upside of a top 3 starter, but I see this trade (if it happens) as being very similar to the Sonny Gray deal.

11 Nov 2018 22:40:06
1. The Gray trade is a TERRIBLE comparison. Because, unlike Gray, Jose Berrios is actually very good. His WAR in 1.5 seasons prior to being traded to New York: 2.9. That's Berrios' worst SEASON. Not to mention, he'd enter the trade market 4 years younger, and has almost 400 less innings on his arm.

The reality is: Berrios, who isn't even remotely available, would command a significantly larger haul than even guys like James Paxton or Corey Kluber.

2. As far as the return: Voit isn't that valuable. He offers little in the way of analytics. His .365 BABIP is laughably unsustainable. He'll be 28, carries a strikeout percentage of 25+ and his 187 wRC+ isn't going to be the norm. He's a bat-first power hitter who is going to face extreme regression in 2019. And amongst the sabermetric crowd, the jury is completely out on his breakout. They almost unanimously believe 2018 was a total fluke. I'd be willing to make a pretty good bet that he gets less than 200 MLB plate appearances next year. Maybe some team gives him a shot, but it'll be for a Lance Lynn type, not Jose Berrios.

3. Adams is hot garbage and is probably a DFA candidate in the very near future. He reminds me of Zach Lee from a few years ago. An okay prospect who if he didn't play for a major market team would be a massive nobody in baseball.

4. Loaisiga is actually very, very good. I think he's the most valuable Yankees prospect, and it's probably not close.

This just isn't good. And you didn't need to admit you're a Yankees fan. I could tell the moment you thought you'd land an elite youngster for a laughable return.

11 Nov 2018 22:57:21
Also, bear in mind, if Berrios does become available, there'll be two dozen teams with interest. This means his price will skyrocket.

I think Baltimore winning the World Series next fall has significantly better odds than this being the top return Minnesota receives for Berrios.

The WORST package they can offer still has to include one of Andujar or Torres, along with 2-3 other pieces.

12 Nov 2018 01:17:26
You're right. Unlike Sonny Gray, Jose Berrios IS very good. At the time of the Gray trade however, Sonny Gray WAS very good. He finished 3rd in Cy Young voting after 2015 and the trade happened mid-2017. After an injury plagued 2016, he looked bad. But he bounced back and had a 6-5 record and a 3.43 ERA. He had 2 and a half years left of team control even after the trade. Berrios currently has 3.

I agree that Voit's 365 BABIP is ridiculously unsustainable, but the power numbers are not. He got an opportunity and capitalized when Greg Bird went down.

Adams is overrated, but he's definitely not a DFA candidate. He was very good at all minor league levels, but should not be discarded. Post a disastrous stint in 2016, Aaron Judge was widely discarded, and look how those critics turned out.

Loaisiga is the gem of the package for the twins. A top tier right hander who was good enough to skip triple A and still have a good run with the Yankees bar a few bad outings.

Berrios is by no means worth anything like Torres or Andujar though. I wouldn't give them up for someone like even Chris Sale.

12 Nov 2018 03:03:51
1. You're still ignoring the fact that Berrios is 4 years younger than Gray was at the time of the trade, with nearly 400 less IP. That's not insignificant. The better comp to the trade is and should be Marco Gonzales, who was also older at the time of trade, and landed a very good OF prospect.

(Also, Berrios has 4 more years of control. He's not even arbitration eligible this winter. Again, not insignificant. )

2. Voit's BABIP over a 150+ PA is ridiculous. And it's going to send signals across the industry. He doesn't have a high BABIP skillset. That's going to turn the value down significantly.

3. Adams is garbage. End of story. His value by scouts is a 40 FV. And the guys who gave him that high have admitted to being extremely generous in that. His AAA was a disaster in walking 4.6 per 9. His command deteriorated at every stop. He finally caught up with his xFIP he carried even in the lower levels, and it doesn't look great. I can't even see the Yankees using him in the bullpen, with his horrible command.

4. I don't see the Yankees getting a young, controllable pitcher without giving up Andujar or Torres. They can land Kluber (32 y/ o) or Paxton (30) or even Carrasco (31). They won't get Berrios without them.

And this package would get laughed at for several decades in baseball if it were a real offer for the guy.

12 Nov 2018 06:35:34
1. It's more like 2 years younger. Sonny Gray was 27 at the time he was trade. Berrios will be 25 in May. If you're telling me Sonny Gray didn't land the A's a good OF prospect, I'm not sure what to say. Dustin Fowler was a great OF prospect at the time of the deal. 98th best prospect in the game in 2017, according to MLB. com. The comparison is much more similar with Gray than Marco Gonzales. Kaprielian was in 2017 what Chance Adams is now. And Jorge Mateo is the Luke Voit of this particular deal.

2. I said Voit's BABIP isn't sustainable. See above.

3. Scouts aren't always right. Numbers tell the story more than the eye.

4. Who would you rather have on your team when thinking about the future? A 2-time Cy Young winner, or an underrated twins pitcher? Me too! Corey Kluber making 16 million a year is criminal. Jake Arrieta makes 50% more than him! Bottom line - Kluber is a perennial all-star, an annual Cy Young contender, and a bargain. Jose Berrios is good, but he's not Corey Kluber, no matter how young, promising, or how many innings he has thrown. I'll take Kluber over Berrios any day of the week. They're more likely to be forced into giving up Torres or Andujar for Kluber or Paxton (not Carrasco) than they are for Berrios. Straight facts. Berrios doesn't get Andujar or Torres, bottom line. If the Yankees do inquire about Berrios, but the Twins so much as MENTION Andujar or Torres, they'll hang up the phone look elsewhere.

12 Nov 2018 07:12:55
Error on #3 - Yes his command is an issue. Do you know who else command has been an issue for in the past? Anyone who has ever stepped on a mound at any level. Pitchers go through slumps. And what I meant by scouts aren't always right is this: Never forget that Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round and Mark Appel was taken first overall.

12 Nov 2018 15:32:59
1. Fine, math and whatever. It's still a point to show that youth and wear-and-tear does factor into trades. The 400 less IP is far more important than the age. As is the pre-arb factor. Also the fact that Berrios is significantly better RIGHT NOW than Gray was 18 months ago. Valuation on players has changed that much in that span.

2. You say that, but you think he's going to continue playing at this extremely valuable rate. He won't. Again, I'd double down on my bet about Voit not even getting 200 PAs next season. I doubt he's on a big league roster come June. Flash in the pan seasons happen every year. I don't think the Yankees have this super valuable trade asset on their hands.

3. The numbers are pretty clear on Adams. He's gotten worse at nearly every stop. His command tanked at nearly every stop. His ERA has tanked at nearly every stop. The scouts originally had Adams as a 55 FV guy. Then they saw the numbers and adjusted it to 40. Rightly so. He's not good.

4. The Yankees probably should focus their energy on Kluber or Paxton. Both will come at a very reasonable price tag due to age and injury history (for Paxton at least) . And I'm not knocking either guy, they're both phenomenal pitchers.

But you're a straight up lunatic and have no understanding of how young players are valued if you think Kluber commands more than Berrios. MARCO GONZALES DEMANDED A TOP 100 PROSPECT! This was pre-2018 Gonzales. Like, no one knew how good he'd be Marco Gonzales.

Heck, the Mariners acquired Sam Tuivailala for a prospect better than, or equal to Chance Adams by scouting rankings.

Moral of the story: a young pitcher like Berrios who has the upside he has is going to command a ton of really, really good players. Mix in the fact that 20+ teams will be interested, your trade idea wouldn't even get considered.

No Andujar or Torres, no Berrios. End of story. Move along now.

10 Nov 2018 19:43:08
Mariners-Cardinals deal

Seattle sends SP Paxton,3B Seager,OF Gamel to St.Louis for 1B/DH Martinez, SP Weaver, SP Gant, OF Fowler

Mariners get an injection of youth, a productive bat for DH and (2) young arms with good upside.They have to stomach the addition of the Fowler contract with it.

The Cardinals add Payton to join Martinez, Mikolas and Flaherty for a dominant rotation ready for a post season run. Seager provides the power bat and gold glove defense the infield and lineup need and Gamel provides an upgrade over the overpaid Fowler as fourth OF.

Agree3 Disagree7

11 Nov 2018 03:31:10
This was very well thought out and I like it, but a few thoughts:

1. With the trade history between Seattle and St. Louis, I don't find the basis of a Paxton deal insane, but I don't see this particular scenario, or how it works for Seattle.

2. Neither Weaver nor Gant are all that spectacular or remotely impressive. Both are #4 or #5 starters, maybe long-relief bullpen guys. And the Cardinals have a bunch more pitchers the Ms should target, especially if you're giving up Paxton

3. I've liked the idea of Seager to the Cardinals. He meets their needs and fits their organizational philosophy in many ways.

4. I don't see why the Mariners would want Dexter Fowler and his contract. He literally came of a season where he was a -1.2 WAR player. (And a 62 wRC+, which is horrendous) . You want to pay him 18M a year? Unless the Cardinals really sweeten the deal with someone like Jack Flaherty, I don't see the in taking him on.

But I like the thought. And I hope we see more well-thought out posts like this. Good job.

10 Nov 2018 07:02:34
Mets get Kris Bryant
Cubs get Noah Syndergaard
i'll hang up and listen

Agree3 Disagree7

10 Nov 2018 16:43:34
The notion of the Cubs willing to move Bryant has been shot down by almost everyone on the Cubs at this point.

Honestly, I don't know why anyone actually takes Buster Olney seriously anymore.

Moral of the story: The Cubs aren't moving Bryant.

09 Nov 2018 15:41:11
a little out of the box.

Not sure how the Cubs are feeling about Addison Russell.

to Cubs - Tulowitzki
- Leiter Jr

to Jays - Chatwood
- Morrow

Agree0 Disagree9

09 Nov 2018 18:53:59
The Cubs would pass on this.

At least Brandon Morrow has some value remaining.

 


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