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11 Feb 2019 05:08:24
Hi Guys - Haven't been on here in soooo long. As Spring Training approaches, a lot of teams have needs that are still not filled. And the team who won the Commissioner's trophy in 2018 is who I will be talking about.

I think we can all agree that the Red Sox are the most complete team in the bigs, but they have a massive void to fill - the closer. Craig Kimbrel is one of the top 5 closers of the past decade, and 2018 showed you why.

Here is what I think will happen to Kimbrel: He will sign with the Braves for 5 years 80 million. This means the Red Sox will NOT HAVE Kimbrel in 2019. Personally, I think a perfect option is Raisel Igelsias of the Reds. He had a stellar 2018, and his recent seasons show no signs of regress. He was 30 for 34 in save opportunities while pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.

While Cincinatti appears to be looking to contend, I think it's unrealistic at this point in the stacked NL Central. Raisel Iglesias was a big part of the limited success they had, but the Reds can replace him with Jared Hughes, who also had a great 2018.

Here is the proposed deal:

Boston gets: Raisel Iglesias

Cincinatti gets: Michael Chavis, Bryan Mata, $200k

nxtgen

1.) 11 Feb 2019 19:49:04
Maybe at trade deadline, I could see the Reds trading Iglesias. But there's no point in them making the moves they made to trade their very good closer right now.


2.) 12 Feb 2019 18:00:23
Reds are now trying to “compete” so there’s no way they are trading their star closer.


3.) 19 Feb 2019 14:29:42
1st, the Sox are not the most complete team in the bigs. Their bullpen is behind some of the others in MLB. I'd say the Yankees, if their rotation is healthy, and the Astros are both more well rounded. That could easily change with a Kimbrel signing. Having him in the 9th slides everyone up in the pecking order and makes them that much more efficient.

I also don't see the Reds moving Iglesias right now, but there are some good young RP out there the Sox might be able to pry away from teams who aren't going to be competing. I do think Iglesias would be a good deadline target if Cincy isn't in the thick of it.


 

 

16 Nov 2018 02:07:29
One trade and I'm addicted hahaha

I had another one in mind.

It involves a Cy Young candidate from the Indians. His name is not Corey Kluber. His name is Trevor Bauer.

The A's were without a doubt the surprise team of 2018. However, it will be hard to repeat the great run they had without Sean Manaea in their rotation. The A's have shown us that they can compete with a bunch of underrated stars, but Sean Manaea was one of the most important parts of their season. They are without him for 2019, so they need a replacement. Almost any 97-win team is a buyer that winter, at least on the trade market. They will have to give up a lot for Bauer. A 27-year-old all star with a WAR of 6.1, and an ERA of 2.21 doesn't come cheap, especially with 2 years of team control. The other thing to know is that Progressive Field, according to ESPN.com, is ranked the 4th most hitter-friendly park in the Majors. The Coliseum is ranked 28th. To sum this up: the A's will get a 27-year-old, right-handed, all-star flamethrower who put up a 6.1 WAR and a 2.21 ERA in the 4th-least pitcher friendly park in the majors, and will bring him to the 3rd-most pitcher-friendly park in the Majors which is the most pitcher-friendly park in the American League.


Everything we have heard (and seen) about the Indians has them selling (so far) this winter. We can't call the Luplow trade a buy. They have reportedly been in contact with a lot of teams regarding some of their stars. If they do go through with selling, they have several assets to deal. Their farm system is terrible. They need good, young, controllable talent for the long-term. They can't sustain their run for much longer anyway, and they'll come to regret it if they don't make the most of the opportunity and logical outcome to sell. Make no mistake, the White Sox are on the rise as the future of the AL Central.


To show how good Bauer is, let's compare his season to Jacob deGrom's:

11.34 K/9(Bauer) vs 11.16 K/9 (Degrom)
2.21 ERA vs 1.70. We'll move Bauer's ERA down 10% because the AL has the DH. 1.99 vs 1.70. Another 10% because deGrom pitches in Citi Field (most pitcher-friendly) and Bauer pitches in Progressive Field (4th-least pitcher-friendly).

1.80 ERA (Bauer) vs 1.70 ERA (deGrom)

DeGrom on average got 20 outs per start, Bauer on average got 19 outs per start. If Bauer had pitched a full season (he missed 6 starts), let's say he had the same amount of starts as deGrom (32). We will re-adjust Bauer's stats using the ballpark factor. We'll also give him 2 more wins and 1 more loss assuming he had 32 starts and kept going at the same rate.

Bauer - 32 GS, 14-7, 1.80 ERA, 273K, 202.2 IP 7.1 WAR --> (times by 1.18 because he missed a little bit of time.)
deGrom - 32 GS, 10-9 1.70 ERA, 268K, 217 IP 8.8 WAR



Now we can see how truly unbelievable and underrated Bauer's season was. So let's set the price incredibly high.


Without further ado:

A's get: Trevor Bauer,
Indians get: Jesus Luzardo, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson

I expect this is the VERY LEAST the Indians will CONSIDER for Bauer.

nxtgen

1.) 16 Nov 2018 05:06:07
If the A's dangle Luzardo's name, absolutely, I could see this.

The problem is, I don't think they'll include Olson. They like that guy way too much, and probably for good reason.


2.) 16 Nov 2018 17:13:20
Agreed, that's a high price. You have to remember that Bauer only has 2 years remaining before FA.


 

 

15 Nov 2018 22:49:01
Hi Guys,

I'm new on here. I'm a baseball nut, and I love the offseason buzz just as much as the regular season.

I had a thought on the Mike Trout scenario. Could he go to the Braves for an absolute haul? I'm talking a ridiculous blockbusterous deal.

I feel like it's a win-win for both teams. The Braves won the NL East in 2018, but they're going to need to bolster their squad in a serious way because the Phillies are going all in. The Braves need an OF now that Markakis is gone as well.

The Angels are unlikely to compete and need good young prospects. This could be their opportunity to cash in and stop wasting Trout's prime.

Trout's fangraphs WAR has been over 8 every single year of his career except 2017 when it was 6.9. 6.9 is ridiculous anyway, but he did it in 114 games! His fangraphs WAR projections for next year is a ridiculous 9.3. His AVG/HR/RBI projections are 299, 39 HR, 116 RBI. That could only go up with a better lineup to in front of and behind, as well as hitting in SunTrust Park, ranked 7th according to ESPN.com as a hitters park, compared to Angel Stadium, ranked 19th.

I added in a Shortstop-for-Shortstop deal just to add in a kicker for both teams.

This is how the deal would look:

Braves get: Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons
Angels get: Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Dansby Swanson

nxtgen

1.) 15 Nov 2018 23:50:27
If there were a Trout trade, I guess this would move the needle. I think the Angels would more talent, in some form.

Also, I don't think the Angels would consider a Simmons for Swanson swap. Simmons has been worth 10 wins over the past two seasons. He continues to be one of the best defensive SS in the league, and has even shown he can hit in the past few years. He's only 29, and his 28M remaining is an absolute steal.

Compare that to Swanson, who is younger, sure, but hasn't been remotely close to that good, and probably doesn't ever project to be that good.

I think the Braves would need to give up a lot just to get Simmons, let alone Trout.


2.) 15 Nov 2018 23:53:23
All in all, though, you put a lot of thought into this. Good legwork on the stats.


 

 

 

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16 Nov 2018 00:41:36
I like it as far as value. It appears to be a pretty even deal. I'm just not sure there's room for Wendle on the roster though. I guess they could try and use him in a Kike Hernandez type of role. Chih-Wei Hu is a good kick-in to replace Stripling. Even though the Dodgers could potentially have some difficult roster decisions, I like the value of the deal for both teams.

nxtgen

 

 

 

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