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natedog's rumours posts with other poster's replies to natedog's rumours posts

 

02 Dec 2021 04:02:57
JBJ and lesser prospects for Hunter Renfroe.

To think, the Brewers missed their chance at acquiring Dallas Keuchel and his 18M salary!

Dang. Their loss.

natedog

1.) 02 Dec 2021 15:00:09
Could have saved two pretty good prospects! Good thing Milwaukee's farm system is already elite.


2.) 02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.


 

 

29 Nov 2021 16:36:11
White Sox-Braves trade:

Braves get: Craig Kimbrel

White Sox get: Ronald Acuna, Jr.


How could the Braves ever turn down getting a top 10 reliever in the league for a guy with a busted up ACL?

Chi Sox logic.

natedog

1.) 29 Nov 2021 18:52:57
Guys, Natedog is really struggling to cope right now. He's posting ridiculous trades and slapping my name on it, creating friends on this forum to agree with him because his takes are that bad, and his team even lost Kevin Gausman after I was correct about his market.

Let's support him in this time of need.


2.) 30 Nov 2021 16:25:28
Funny thing is, this is more realistic than literally any trade proposal Chi Sox has ever made.

Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys.


3.) 30 Nov 2021 17:54:37
Which trade are you alluding to, Nathan?


4.) 30 Nov 2021 19:16:10
Jean Segura for Craig Kimbrel LMAOOOO.


5.) 01 Dec 2021 14:24:30
Kevin Gausman for $84 million LMAOOOO. Remember, he said he wanted to return to SF. I was reliably told by you.


6.) 01 Dec 2021 18:38:19
I mean, he said it in multiple interviews. Grant Brisbee, Alex Pavolovic, Kerry Crowley, and Andrew Baggerly ALL mentioned the comment.

He then further indicated that his feelings were hurt that the Giants weren't as hot on his trail as he wished they were.

It turns out, the Toronto Blue Jays offered more money than the Giants were, and more years (rumor mill circling that the Giants offered 4/ 90 to Gausman) .

So saying that Gausman wanted to return wasn't made up gobbledygook like we're used to seeing from you. It was a quote straight from the man himself.


7.) 01 Dec 2021 19:12:16
Gausman's quote to The Athletic:

“To be honest, I don’t think the Giants expected me to pitch as well as I did this year, ” Gausman told The Athleitc. “So I’m not putting my eggs into one basket. I’m trying to focus on what I can control right now, which is basically nothing. But yeah, I hope they’ll call me. And honestly, if they don’t, my feelings probably will be hurt because I felt I was a part of something special. ”

His quote to MLB's Maria Guardado:

"“I've kind of hopped around the last couple of years. I felt like I made some good relationships and then had to leave. I just know what I'm getting myself into, know what to expect. I talked from day one just about how great everybody treated me and my family here. That definitely was part of it, but I’ve really enjoyed my time here so far. I really liked all my teammates. "

He mentioned, on video, in an October 3rd Tweet from @NBCSGiants that he "grew up a Giants fan. "

But yes, please continue on how I was one year off on my contract prediction.

But hey, how'd that Joey Wendle for Craig Kimbrel trade go for the White Sox?


8.) 01 Dec 2021 19:47:34
So if you're keeping track at home, we have:

Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) .

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Wendle and Kiermaier.

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura (a trade literally mocked by a guy from MLB. com)

We have: Kevin Gausman to the White Sox.

We have: Dallas Keuchel for Jackie Bradley Jr.

And my woes were that I suggested the Giants don't offer more than a 4-year deal to Gausman.

More for the record:

"Although, 76 wins is a good current 2021 projection for Zaidi's Giants. So he may be right on track for a playoff berth in 2027."

You were only SIX SEASONS OFF, my guy. Jesus, what a take that was.

For someone with your history of being so laughably off on this kind of stuff, you sure do have a puffed up head.

But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here.


9.) 01 Dec 2021 21:26:09
You're trashing my offseason plan because the predictions haven't hit (not meant to be predictions btw, simply the path I would've pursued), yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO.

"Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) "

This was not in my offseason plan. This was a far-fetched idea that I brought up. 3-team deals with that many players hardly ever happen.

"But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here. "

It's not that you missed on one player - all of us will predict more wrong than we do right. However, it was you believing that I was crazy for proposing Gausman playing somewhere other than SF and for offering him 5 for $120 million (he signed for 5 for $110 million for the record; a lot closer than 4 for $84 million)

It may be time to switch over to your David Stearns account full time.


10.) 02 Dec 2021 00:15:13
I never once said you were "crazy. " My exact quote:

:Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on. "

I feel that's a pretty generous, healthy and contributive comment, don't you?

I also said, "It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse. "

Once again, I open the door to me being willing to be wrong.

Going along with a player's very word that he wants to return to the Giants seems like a pretty solid reason to predict he returns.

It's actually based in reality. Turns out, the interest from the Giants wasn't to Gausman's liking.

I never even remotely hinted that you were crazy. You're just looking for a win now LMAO. And I get it, with how hysterically bad your other ideas were, I'd be desperate too.

Maybe it's time you create a new account and forget the "Chi Sox" account ever existed.


11.) 02 Dec 2021 00:22:33
"yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO. "

So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint?

Also, for your ideas being, by your own account, "far fetched", you sure get a bit testy when people challenge it, don't you? Even you acknowledge the truth (which is rare, but we'll take what we can get), and yet, you can't handle when others disagree. Not that I'm surprised, but it'd be nice to see *SOME* improvement over the years.

Also, your super intelligent "Kimbrel for Segura" trade just got shot in the foot by Dave Dombrowski LMAO.


12.) 02 Dec 2021 03:27:21
Did he actually reference Kimbrel or are you talking about him saying they're "not necessarily looking for a closer at this point"?

I think the Phillies have a really solid team - one that could easily win a division in 2022 if they make a few improvements. They need a shortstop badly and their pen is quite obviously a glaring hole. They also lost Neris who'd pretty damn good in his own right. While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer.

Adding Kimbrel (even if it was for Segura) and let's say, Story, Rosario and a CF via trade makes them a lot more interesting.

"So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint? "

No, you missed on Gausman, Bundy, Verlander, and Neris too. They could still get Suzuki I guess, but I really think he'll be a Mariner. The Yarbrough trade is also theoretically still in play.


13.) 02 Dec 2021 13:53:50
"While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer. "

Yes, the Phillies should be unhappy with a closer who had a 2.45 ERA in 25 IP with the Dodgers in 2021. What they should really be looking for is to pay 160% more than Knebel for a guy who had a 5.09 ERA in 23 IP with the White Sox!

And they should give up their best middle infielder, which is also a glaring need, to acquire him!

I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero.

I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him.

Hahn would have been wiser to buy out his option and use the savings (15M) to just acquire a 2B via free agency. And if he really wanted to keep Kimbrel, I'm pretty sure he could have had him for a lot cheaper.

But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it.


14.) 02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.


15.) 02 Dec 2021 15:34:14
"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

Lol, going from "absolutely not"

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something"

to "well maybe"!

Also, let me know when we're going to stop grading relievers with ERA over 25 inning samples. Knebel, who has thrown 39 innings over the last 3 seasons, just got $10 million. But Kimbrel's lack of recent consistent track record kills his trade value? GTFOH. Kimbrel is a better pitcher and was never playing 2022 for much cheaper than $15 million.

Second base is not a glaring need for Philly, it's short. They have three guys that can play second for most of 2022.

"I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero. "

His 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021. Please though, tell me more about the reliability of ERA, especially over tiny samples.


16.) 02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!


 

 

15 Nov 2021 14:21:20
Giants Offseason

(Update since Posey retired)

Non-tender Alex Dickerson & Tyler Beede.

Re-sign 1B Brandon Belt (accepts QO)- 1/18.4M
Re-sign RHP Kevin Gausman 4/84M


Sign RHP Dylan Bundy 1/6.5M
Sign RHP Justin Verlander 2/32M
Sign OF Seiya Suzuki 5/75M
Sign RHP Hector Neris 2/15M


Trade LHP Nick Swiney & 1B Garrett Frechette to Tampa Bay for LHP Ryan Yarbrough

C- Casali
1B- Belt
2B- Flores/La Stella
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
LF- Wade/Suzki
CF- Slater/Duggar
RF- Yastrzemski

Bench
C- Bart
1B/OF- Ruf
2B/3B- Flores/La Stella
OF- Wade/Suzuki
OF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation
1. Webb (R)
2. Gausman (R)
3. Verlander (R)
4. Bundy (R)
5. Yarbrough (L)

Bullpen
CP- Doval (R)
CP- McGee (L)
SU- Rogers (R)
RP- Neris (R)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- J. Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)

Estimated 2022 Payroll- $168 Million

natedog

1.) 15 Nov 2021 17:50:36
Still think Gausman at 4/ 84 represents a substantial hometown discount. He's the best pitcher on the market over 4+ seasons, by a decent margin.


2.) 15 Nov 2021 21:15:44
Possibly. And I'd agree it's a hometown discount. He's made it very clear he wants to play in San Francisco, on several occasions.


3.) 16 Nov 2021 04:36:36
I think LAA comes after Gausman hard. Arte probably signs off on 5/ 110-120 easy. Trip to OC might not be too bad for $30 million extra.


4.) 16 Nov 2021 13:38:45
It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse.

But every indication, again, is that there's mutual interest in bringing him back. I just don't know if Zaidi is ready to drop 100M+ on Gausman. I'd rather him give it to Stroman.


5.) 16 Nov 2021 14:14:56
Agree to disagree there I guess. No chance in heck I'd take Stroman over Gausman.

Reports are that LAA is going over the QO to sign Synderaard. Major desperation mode - I think one of Gausman, Stroman or Ray is going there as well.


6.) 16 Nov 2021 14:51:39
I think my greater fear is that the Giants would be paying to get second half Kevin Gausman, which is why I don't want them going more than 4 years on him.


7.) 17 Nov 2021 13:32:33
This offseason should be interesting. To date, the biggest free agent contract they've handed out under Zaidi was to Tommy La Stella. It's clear they'll blow straight through that this winter, but I remain unconvinced that they are going to start giving out 100M contracts just yet.


8.) 18 Nov 2021 14:36:42
The Steamer projections for Stroman versus Gausman show why we shouldn't trust Steamer.

Gausman 2022: 191 IP, 10.02 K/ 9, 2.54 BB/ 9, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP.
Stroman 2022: 182 IP, 7.39 K/ 9, 2.64 BB/ 9, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP.

The problem I see is that Stroman's numbers, most importantly his ERA and FIP are elevated by 50 to 100 points, respectively from his 2021 numbers, and the last time Stroman was that bad over a full season was 2016. He was hurt in 2018. They don't reflect his career numbers very well.

Gausman's projections are elevated from 2021 as well, but they fall more in line with his career numbers.

Stroman's projections are obviously hurt by a gap in the algorithm, not having any numbers to input in 2020 due to his opt out, but it's odd to me that a guy who had 3.22 and 3.02 ERA seasons over his last two (and wasn't dealing with injuries) would somehow be projected as a 4.12 ERA guy the next season.

I think both are excellent pitchers. But I'd lean toward Stroman, mostly because he has a lengthier track record of success.


9.) 18 Nov 2021 17:20:03
Stroman's GB% is dropping and his 2021 BABIP was a career-low. For a pitcher that's so quality of contact-driven, that's a cause for concern. If he goes to a less defensively-efficient team (i. e. one that doesn't have Lindor and Baez up the middle), we could see the effect. I think he's a high-3s, low-4s ERA guy into his early 30s.

Remember that Steamer is merely a formula. It's not making any subjective determinations.


10.) 22 Nov 2021 13:34:41
Except when Darin Ruf is a -0.7 WAR player next year. Then you're more than willing to accept it as a determination.


11.) 22 Nov 2021 14:30:59
It would be better for your argument on Ruf if Steamer WAS making subjective determinations. Math tells us that you're severely overrating his future outlook.


12.) 29 Nov 2021 03:17:27
Yeah, 4/ 84 for Gausman was unsurprisingly never close, lol.


13.) 01 Dec 2021 20:03:36
Did Gausman go to the White Sox for 5/ 120?

Asking for a friend.


14.) 02 Dec 2021 03:21:10
Nope, but 5/ 120 was a lot closer than 4/ 84.


15.) 02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.


 

 

29 Oct 2021 02:19:10
Giants Offseason

Pick up Posey's option
Re-sign Brandon Belt 1/18.4 (qualifying offer)
Re-sign Kevin Gausman, 4/84
Re-sign Alex Wood 2/20

Non-tender Alex Dickerson

Sign:
Noah Syndergaard, 2/20
Mark Canha, 3/45
Chris Taylor, 4/72
Hector Neris, 2/16

Trade:
Acquire RHP Elieser Hernandez from MIA for C Joey Bart

Acquire RHP Cole Sulser from BAL for RHP Manuel Mercedes and LHP Nick Swiney

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Taylor/La Stella
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
1B- Belt
DH- Ruf
LF- Canha
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
CF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation:
Webb - Gausman - Syndergaard - Wood - Hernandez

Bullpen
Doval (R) - Rogers (R) - Sulser (R) - McGee (L) - Leone (R) - Neris (R) - Alvarez (L) - J. Garcia (L)

natedog

1.) 29 Oct 2021 04:53:16
Why offer Belt the QO when you have an elite everyday 1B for ~$2.5 million already? Just banking on recouping a draft pick if he declines and signs elsewhere?!


2.) 29 Oct 2021 13:07:35
If they get the DH (which I think will happen), there's plenty of ABs to go around. Having TWO first basemen who have over 140 wRC+ is always a great problem to have.


3.) 29 Oct 2021 15:42:31
Exactly. In this scenario with the DH in the NL, it's going to fascinating to watch Ruf put up a 5 WAR season at 36 y/ o. Does he get MVP votes? Kapler will finally be able to unleash the beast from his shackles.


4.) 29 Oct 2021 17:56:18
It'll be great to see "weak side platoon player" Darin Ruf outperform Jose Abreu AGAIN. For the second year in a row.

But hey, the White Sox will pay nearly 8 times that amount to get worse production.

And therein lies the difference between the Executive of the Year and the runner-up: extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment.

But hey, I think giving up legitimately good talent for Craig Kimbrel, and giving 18M to Dallas Keuchel, 8M to Adam Eaton, and extending Jose Abreu so he can be worse than a part-time, weak-sided platoon first basemen in 200% of the plate appearances, I guess that's really good right?

I mean, at least he made sure that he never hits arbitration with any of his players! That's worthy of a Hall of Fame spot if you ask me.


5.) 29 Oct 2021 19:30:10
I commend the Giants GM for finding a superstar playing in Korea, and here you go again attacking Rick Hahn. This has to be getting personal.

Don't forget about Hahn being an abhorrent human being because of his inability to overrule his boss. Oh, and he allowed the team to compete against the Cleveland In*ians, thereby condoning their team name. Awful. That could hurt his HOF chances due to the character clause.

He also traded a generational talent for James Shields - don't sell him short.

"extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment"

Hahn has literally never done this one single time. He was granted good players from a genie who he very easily traded for highly regarded prospects. Then those new players became good in the majors based on pure luck alone. In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us.


6.) 01 Nov 2021 14:39:34
"In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us. "

I mean, the Los Angeles Dodgers are kinda the team they are because Andrew Friedman let Zaidi do what he did in Los Angeles.

That's right, one of the most talented baseball teams in MLB History is where they are because of Farhan Zaidi. So as much as you exaggerate, it's probably more true than you're comfortable with.


7.) 01 Nov 2021 15:34:19
I laugh about you mocking me for the Indians nickname. You're the only one getting your panties in a twist over it. Frankly, I don't really care. I think baseball has a lot more issues than a poorly contrived caricature of a people group.

Some of them include:

-Allowing low-character individuals to keep having jobs in baseball. Rick Hahn was literally okay with his team hiring TLR, he even praised it later on. He also reportedly really wanted A. J. Hinch, who led one of the biggest cheating scandals in baseball history.

-Taking advantage of low-income and disadvantaged minorities through pre-arbitration deals that limit those individuals' ability to make more money later on. What would Tim Anderson make through arbitration right now? More or less than 9M? (Hint: the answer is WAY, WAY more than 9M) . The White Sox knew that Anderson, Moncada, and Jimenez would get way more expensive for them down the road, so they took advantage of them and offered them upfront money knowing those players had next to no leverage to turn down those offers. It's interesting how they didn't do this with Lucas Giolito or Andrew Vaughn. Could it be that those guys come from upper-class households and thus had leverage in turning down deals? No way. That could never be the case.

Now, I'm not suggesting that the White Sox are the only team doing this. I would never. But according to you, they "revolutionized" it.

Once again, look through the players that have historically sign these deals. Other than ones with high-variance and low-expectations (i. e. Scott Kingery, Evan White), the over-whelming majority are non-white players or players from lower economic environments.

I don't think that's merely coincidental. And before you say it, yes, the Giants have their history with doing this, although they have typically reserved this practice for pitchers (i. e. Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum), and they haven't done it for several seasons now.

To the White Sox, this is what Hahn gets praised for: taking advantage of zero-leverage players.

But yes, let's cover our eyes and think that a team's nickname is the big problem!


8.) 02 Nov 2021 04:51:44
Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. This scandal will be greater than the Astros.

Guys like Moncada and Robert were obviously struggling after the respective $32 million and $26 million signing bonuses they got out of Cuba were running out. Hahn clearly took advantage. I suppose maybe in snooty San Francisco those would be considered low socioeconomic incomes, but otherwise I think those guys were able to narrowly get by pre-extensions. Luis Robert’s new Naruto-wrapped Lamborghini Aventor is a good signal of that, I’d say. Poor guys.

I guess Hahn’s moral compass is much worse than yours when your alternative is to pay the organization’s minority players the least amount possible for as long as possible.

Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? I guess the Giants said thanks to their rivals for giving them the most influential executive in baseball history by losing to them when it counted. That was nice.


9.) 05 Nov 2021 13:14:38
"Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? "

He didn't. But reportedly, he received a nice gift from Andrew Friedman as a recognition of what he helped build. No indication of what that was. To be clear, Zaidi has taken teams he runs to more World Series than Rick Hahn EVER will. 2017 and 2018, he was there. 2020, just 2 seasons removed, the Dodgers were back.

Again, this is more than Ol' Ricky can say.


10.) 05 Nov 2021 13:32:57
"Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. "

Yeah, maybe refrain from mocking Charles Johnson and his stupid donations when you yourself don't understand the nature of systemic racism that is rampant in the game, especially through pre-arb deals.

The idea that "they aren't hurting" is so hilariously off that you can't possibly think you're being serious.

If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time.

The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. They knew those guys couldn't afford the risk of going year-to-year in arbitration and possibly facing non-tender if they tank. So they offered money way, way lower than the projected value to those players, knowing they'd accept.

Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here?

The White Sox are literally taking minority, low-economic class players and limiting their earning potential through pre-arb deals that are 100% to the benefit of the team, long term. They do this, again, knowing that the players have no leverage to turn it down.

They are willingly and actively manipulating and limiting the earning potential of minority players. In fact, it's almost a sure bet that if the White Sox have a young, talented minority baseball star, they'll sign them to one of these deals.

And I fully expect them to do the same with Cespedes and Oscar Colas.

They LOVE manipulating the earning power of minority players. It's just what they do.


11.) 05 Nov 2021 13:37:24
That nice gift was an early trip to Cabo while the Dodgers went to the NLCS.


12.) 05 Nov 2021 16:05:40
What did TLR do to celebrate his one playoff win? My guess: probably did a bunch of Jaegerbombs and drove Robert's Lambo all across the greater Chicago area.

It's just what he does.


13.) 05 Nov 2021 17:51:09
Joking about DUI? Ahhhh.


14.) 07 Nov 2021 12:08:56
I mean, which would you rather see: someone joking about a guy getting multiple DUIs, or someone willingly hiring a guy with multiple DUIs.

You have a hard time seeing the forest for the trees, so I'm not surprised by you feigning some level of disgust here.

The White Sox just comically overpaid for another under-performing white guy, and they won't pay minorities even close to their value in arbitration. They also knowingly and willing hired Tony La Russa.

Maybe point your anger that way.


15.) 08 Nov 2021 10:51:15
The Giants better not sign a single white player this season. Seeing that most and their good players are already white, you have to question whether their intentions. Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear?


16.) 08 Nov 2021 14:00:16
LOL. Are you being intentionally obtuse, or is this something that comes naturally for you? I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here, but you're making me lose faith.

If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game, I really don't know if I can help you. And you should probably stop trying to move this to Charles Johnson, who literally HAS NOT MADE A SINGLE DIRECTIVE TO THE GIANTS IN OVER A DECADE. Greg Johnson made it explicitly clear that Charles Johnson just acts as principal owner and hasn't been in a board meeting in years. His voice is worthless to the Giants.

Even Zaidi and many within the Giants front office spoke up in regards to Johnson's questionable campaign donations. Zaidi then assured that he's not heard a directive from Charles since he started, and Bobby Evans confirmed the same thing.

Unlike Jerry Reinsdorf, who willingly hired a horrible human being and his entire front office just went along with it.

The Giants will likely sign white players. They'll probably sign minority players. They just picked up Jay Jackson's 2022 option, despite them not exactly needing him in 2022, if you want just one example.

This isn't to say that the Giants don't have their own set of issues, but they've also acknowledged it and publicly stated their desire to get better and work against their own prejudices.

Meanwhile, Rick Hahn just overpaid Craig Kimbrel by 100-200% of his actual value, but desperately seeks to underpay his own minority players. There's not a single public statement made from him about systemic racism. Not one.

He's one of just three GMs/ PBOs who haven't made a statement of anything across the game. And his own personnel decisions when it comes to which players they acquire, play, and for how much, make it evidently clear why that's the case.


17.) 08 Nov 2021 14:22:05
"Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear? "

Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach?

Man, his directive was heard loud and clear by the organization. They clearly don't employ any minorities!

Seriously, you sound ridiculous.

But as they say, a hit dog will holler. And you are definitely hollering right now.


18.) 10 Nov 2021 04:40:43
“ If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game”

This will remain the most idiotic take on this site for a long, long time. You are literally arguing for the alternative which guarantees that players are paid the league minimum for the first 3 season followed by 3 seasons where they are paid a % of their marginal revenue product. The club assumes ZERO risk from year to year.

The players have all the power in the world to turn down these massive extensions no matter their race, because at worst, they’re paid a league minimum value that is more than 88% of American households make. They can still get plenty of food on the table. Usually, players in the position to accept these deals are well on their way to making millions of dollars through their arb years. They don’t need the extension to become millionaires.

People inherently don’t want their compensation to vary from year to year based on performance, it’s why the compensation smoothing phenomenon is real. These deals greatly benefit both sides at the moment they are signed, but this should be obvious because THAT’S WHY THEY’RE MUTUALLY AGREED UPON IN THE FIRST PLACE. Some work out great for the players and some work out great for their teams.

“Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach? ”

LOL! This is the Giants version of, “I have a black friend, I can’t be racist. ”

Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team?


19.) 06 Nov 2021 14:26:03
"The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. "

Again, Moncada and Robert had humungous signing bonuses in their back pockets. They had all of the leverage in the world. The White Sox guaranteed Tim Anderson $25 million after 398 games of an 86 wRC+. He wasn't considering if he was ever going to be worth $100 million+ at the time, he was trying to survive in the league and the Sox guaranteed him life changing money. He'll end up making $52 million from the contract. How obtuse and out of touch can you be?

Since TA's extension he's hit .322/ .349/ .495 with a 127 wRC+ and is one of the faces of baseball. It's not racism, lmao, it's a smart investment. If Anderson was confident enough in himself that he'd ascend to stardom like this, he could simply turn it down and still make more than 99% of Americans do over the course of 6 years. He also got a $2.2 million signing bonus out of a junior college, so he would have been a very wealthy human being either way.

"If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time. "

What? the $100 million is not guaranteed. You could could play terribly and get non-tendered or sustain a career-altering injury and walk away only having made 1-3 years of league minimum. Both sides are taking a risk with a pre-arb extension. If it was as easy as choosing $100 million or $50 million, there would never be a contract extension. But it's not that simple. Players in general would rather have their contracts be guaranteed year to year rather than it being based on their performance even if means sacrificing some total dollars. It's called compensation smoothing.

Don't mention Chris Sale or Aaron Bummer tho and their pre-arb extensions with the White Sox. They don't fit your convoluted narrative so they don't count in this instance.

The Braves did the same thing with Albies and Acuna, is their FO racist too? How about the Brewers with Freddy Peralta? Yankees and Aaron Hicks? Cleveland and Jose Ramirez? Cardinals and Carlos Martinez? Philly and Odubel Herrera?

Boston tried to extend Mookie Betts tried numerous times but he bet on himself and it paid off. All of the player listed above, including the Sox players could have done the exact same thing.

So now if any club signs a minority player to an extension, they are racist. And again, your alternative is to pay them the league minimum for as long as possible before only giving them a percentage of their market value through arbitration. Which option is manipulating earning power again?

"Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here? "

They are trying to extend all three, but none of them are as wealthy as Robert or Moncada were before they signed their extensions. But again, you're advocating that the team guarantee the white players more money. You're shooting your own argument in the foot.

This is a terribly embarrassing argument by you. How you continue to get worse is beyond me, and everyone else on this site.


20.) 14 Nov 2021 19:36:47
"Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team? "

Once again, a hit dog sure does holler. Your desperate attempts to hide the systemic racism that is RAMPANT in the White Sox front office, as well as the incredibly low moral character of their executives. I'd probably try and use a lot of words to try and defend it as well, especially if I knew how horrendous they truly were.

Seriously, I'm beginning to think your character is that of TLR's with these defenses.

I kind of feel bad for you.


21.) 15 Nov 2021 13:31:39
You're saying that I'm hiding the theoretical systematic racism in the contract extension market (a tremendous stretch at that, and you still have yet to address my rebuttal of the alternative to an extension for these minority players), yet your team's blatantly racist owner is off the hook because "oh, he's not really involved".

It's very convenient for you.

You're not looking for a discussion, you're looking to point the racism finger, which is usually reserved for someone who lacks other defendable arguments.

TBH, an argument that the current CBA contractual control structure is "racist" would have been better than the contract extension market where both sides literally have to agree.


22.) 17 Nov 2021 16:34:44
LOL. Yes, we're talking about the DECISION MAKERS in these cases.

Charles Johnson doesn't make any decisions for Giants personnel issues. Rick Hahn and apparently, Jerry Reinsdorf do.

Charles Johnson doesn't get a pass for being a grimy creep, but when we're talking about racism as it pertains to a ballclub, you might be able to deduce that a non-involved owner shouldn't be considered, don't you think?

Again, your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit.

You're supporting a racist team who also doesn't care that their manager is a drunk and risked people's lives. Maybe focus on that before trying to throw complete non-sequiturs into the fold.


23.) 18 Nov 2021 14:49:57
Ok Nate, we can just pretend that the Giants' largest shareholder makes absolutely zero decisions regarding what the organization does. That totally makes sense. I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making?

It's just one big racist family business out in San Fran.

Surely they have a saint of a CEO, right? Nope. Larry Baer gets physical with his wife on occasion, but soon Nate will tell us that he also doesn't have anything to do with the team's operations or decision-making.

What was that you said? "your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit. "

The irony, LMAO.

Maybe I should start making the argument that TLR doesn't actually make any of the calls from the dugout, that it's Miguel Cairo and Tony is just there for show. That way he's off the hook!


24.) 01 Dec 2021 19:33:30
" I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making? "

He has, on MULTIPLE OCCASIONS, made it known that he doesn't hold any of the same political views as his father. We've been over this. And when Charles was making those donations, it was pointed out that he is merely a silent partner, who continues to just rake in the money. Nothing more. He literally hasn't been a part of the board meetings, whose minutes are publicly available, in years.

As for Larry Baer, he served a several month, unpaid suspension for his actions. He has sought the help he needs, and been very forthright, publicly, about his short-comings.

Did Tony La Russa even get a punishment from his own team? Nope. They tried to HIDE THE INFORMATION and pretend like they didn't know. They paraded him like he was this excellent manager.

Do you need reminded that their second choice was a guy CAUGHT IN ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHEATING SCANDALS IN BASEBALL HISTORY?

The White Sox couldn't wait to hire a piece of _____ as their team's manager. Hahn had his choice. Jerry had his.

Turns out, the drunk driver got picked over the cheater. But yes, that's so much better than a silent partner.


 

 

24 Sep 2021 10:03:38
One last bit... you made sure to pretend that the Giants bullpen was bad.

Here was the quote: "I'm sorry to say, but they probably have the worst bullpen of playoff caliber teams. That'll be tough come October."

You said that on August 2nd. Let's get an update on how the two bullpens have been since August:

Chicago White Sox: 3.56 ERA, .276 wOBA against.

Now, for the "worst among contenders" Giants bullpen:

2.64 ERA, .276 wOBA against.

The Giants did this while playing a gauntlet of excellent baseball teams during that stretch, including the Brewers and Braves (two series each), the Dodgers, Padres, and Athletics.

natedog

1.) 25 Sep 2021 19:18:38
I said their pen could be a problem come October, not the end of September.

Reading is hard.

Comparing must win games for the Giants vs. non-must win games for the Sox is called a skewed sample. The marginal value of a victory for the Sox is your sample here is exponentially lower that a win for the Giants.


2.) 27 Sep 2021 18:31:49
The Giants bullpen has a WPA/ LI of 13.51, second only behind the Dodgers.

They are literally one of the best bullpens in baseball in high leverage situations. They are literally one of the best bullpens when playing top-level teams.

Against the current and highest projected playoff teams, who has the lowest ERA and wOBA? If you guessed the San Francisco Giants, you'd be correct.

Seriously, not a single metric or statistic agrees that the Giants have the "worst bullpen of playoff caliber teams". In fact, EVERY statistic suggests the exact opposite: they might have the best bullpen of all playoff teams.

Once again, HOW ARE YOU SO BAD AT THIS?


3.) 27 Sep 2021 23:24:30
Mr. BABIP and FIP regression himself selectively omits this rationale when it doesn't help his own narrative.

It's almost as if there's a pattern forming here.


4.) 28 Sep 2021 05:51:43
ERA and wOBA against playoff teams, by playoff bullpens, ranked.

Giants- 3.23 ERA, .278 wOBA
Rays- 3.30, .297
Dodgers- 3.79, .294
Cardinals- 3.89, .292
Red Sox- 3.92, .316
Astros- 3.94, .307
Yankees- 4.24, .318
Braves- 4.31, .291
White Sox- 4.92, .346
Brewers- 5.31, .332

We'll put it another way, if the bullpens were a pitcher, and the wOBA represented a hitter, here's what the matchup would look like (stats from 2018-2021)

Giants- Jack Flaherty vs. Dee Gordon
Rays- Zack Wheeler vs. James McCann
Dodgers- Aaron Civale vs. Mike Zunino
Cardinals- Marco Gonzales vs. Yolmer Sanchez
Red Sox- Kenta Maeda vs. Eric Hosmer
Astros- Dallas Keuchel vs. Alex Gordon
Yankees- Joey Lucchesi vs. Gary Sanchez
Braves- Johnny Cueto vs. Nicky Lopez
White Sox- Trevor Cahill vs. Matt Chapman/ Marcus Semien/ Francisco Lindor
Brewers- Vince Velasquez vs. Buster Posey

I ask, which matchup would you rather have: Jack Flaherty vs. Dee Gordon, or Trevor Cahill vs. Semien/ Chapman/ Lindor?

The choice is obvious. And so it is with which bullpen is better.


5.) 08 Oct 2021 14:35:46
Chi Sox, this says nothing of "regression". Most of these bullpen arms will surely regress, which is why Zaidi won't make long-term commitments to them.

But you'd have to prove that this regression will occur conveniently during the playoffs. Good luck with that.

Also, you'd have to prove what the "mean" BABIP for a bullpen that has just TWO returning relievers from 2020 (Rogers and Garcia) would look like. There's not enough data to point to any actual mean number. The same is true for xFIP. You need some solid sample to point to a "mean", and there's just not enough to build that number.

So yeah, they'll likely regress. Will it be to their 4.20 xFIP? Perhaps, perhaps somewhere between their 2.99 ERA and 4.20 xFIP.

(Don't forget that xFIP punishes pitchers like Jose Alvarez and Tyler Rogers who are pitch-to-contact pitchers and have made a skill out of inducing weak contact) .

Will that regression take place, all of a sudden, during a 3-19 game span in the heart of the postseason? It's extremely unlikely to see regression take place so quickly. It's happened, but it would require a monumental collapse of everyone at the same time.

And based on what we saw out of the 2021 Giants, you probably shouldn't bet on that.


6.) 08 Oct 2021 15:13:11
Also, please tell me how the Giants will regress toward the 4.20 bullpen xFIP when all season, THEY'VE BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM IT!

July ERA- 3.66, 91.0 IP
August ERA- 2.46, 120.2 IP
September ERA- 2.42, 137.1 IP

Yes, you're reading that right: the ERA drop correlated with a steady rise in innings pitched by the bullpen. All of this, mind you, while playing deeply impactful games against very good baseball teams. From July to October 3rd, the Giants played 35 games against .500-or-better teams, not including tough games against the Padres, who are still a very good baseball team.

So if the Giants bullpen is going to regress for the playoffs, it'll be the fastest regression we've likely ever seen, and it would completely buck the trend in which they've been playing.

But I'm sure they'll conveniently regress, just for you, Frankie! Good luck!


7.) 08 Oct 2021 21:26:49
Craig Kimbrel. What a pickup LMAOOOOO.


8.) 09 Oct 2021 14:56:51
“ (Don't forget that xFIP punishes pitchers like Jose Alvarez and Tyler Rogers who are pitch-to-contact pitchers and have made a skill out of inducing weak contact) . ”

Lol, When you were fighting tooth and nail a few years ago to try and prove to me that Will Smith was far superior to Aaron Bummer, calling for Bummer’s xFIP regression was fair game. Now when it’s SF relievers, you choose to consider the big picture like Rogers’ and Alvarez’s BIP profiles.

But hey, at least you’re slowly learning, but only when it fits your convoluted narrative at a given time.


9.) 09 Oct 2021 15:02:30
And Kimbrel. Wow, just wow.


10.) 18 Oct 2021 14:45:30
"But hey, at least you’re slowly learning, but only when it fits your convoluted narrative at a given time. "

LOL. You still think, despite LITERALLY EVERY STAT SAYING OTHERWISE, that Jose Abreu had a better 2021 than Darin Ruf.

I'm not sure you're in the position to accuse anyone of having a "fitted convoluted narrative" that ignores stats.

If you need further proof that Darin Ruf was better and more valuable, look at this:

Ruf: 2.5 fWAR, 1.275M salary.
Abreu: 2.9 fWAR, 17M salary.

Let's see how that fits into the whole team:

% of team WAR vs. percentage of team payroll:

Darin Ruf: 4.8% of team WAR, 0.7% of team payroll.
Jose Abreu: 5.5% of team WAR, 12.1% of team payroll.

So not only was Ruf STATISTICALLY better, he was of far more value than Abreu. Like, it wasn't even remotely close.

And the fact that you continue to refuse this information shows why you should find a new hobby. You're probably the most comically wrong person on this site, consistently. And not having bwright around makes it a lot worse for you. You should find him, because you REALLY need someone to make you look smart again.


11.) 18 Oct 2021 14:52:36
And yes, I used xFIP back in 2019. I was wrong then. I'm willing to admit that.

You, however, won't admit that you've been wrong about the Jose Abreu vs. Darin Ruf thing. Not once.

Nor have you acknowledged how wrong you were about where the Giants were in their timeline, or how you thought the White Sox were "on par with the Dodgers" or how you thought Craig Kimbrel was this incredible talent worth an excellent return, or how believed Cesar Hernandez would be better than Trevor Story ROS.

All of these things were things you've said within the past 12 months.

Maybe you should start by acknowledging all the stupid things you've said in the last 12 months before rehashing something someone said over 2 years ago. At the very least, start there, THEN, you can come at me about my xFIP statements from 2019, which I now admit were wrong at the time.

Fair?


12.) 19 Oct 2021 23:20:27
"All of these things were things you've said within the past 12 months. "

1. I never said that Hernandez would be better than Story -- I said it was a distinct possibility.

2. Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball when he was acquired and he deserved that kind of return They completely botched his role, largely due to the incompetency of their manager. He should have been the 9th inning guys with Hendriks given the highest leverage situation in the 6th-8th.

Madrigal is a polarizing prospect in terms of his value. He has one elite tool with the others only average at best. Heuer is a nice relief arm with a lot of control.


13.) 20 Oct 2021 15:42:50
Wait, so Craig Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball, but he was mismanaged because he was given the higher leverage spots? Shouldn't the "best reliever in baseball" be given the highest leverage spots available, regardless of inning?

The LI for Kimbrel (1.43) vs. Hendriks (1.51) was marginal. So I'm not sure I agree.

As for Kimbrel's "talent", I was never convinced that Kimbrel who was really bad in 2019 and 2020 wasn't going to sustain his 2021 numbers with the Cubs. I just didn't buy it. Hence why I thought it was hilarious that anyone would give up MLB-ready talent for him.

I really don't care about your assessment of Madrigal's value, that was a significant overpay, and I pointed that out the day it happened. You acted like I was dumb. This was your quote: "Of course you think the White Sox locking down maybe the most talented bullpen of all time is a bad deal. "

You'd do any number of federal crimes to undo that trade.

Or this: "Acting like this doesn’t give the White Sox an absolutely filthy bullpen, i. e. what wins in October, for the next 2 seasons, is ridiculous. "

He literally made their bullpen worse when it mattered most.

I was, once again, right about this. You were, once again, wrong. And there's proof of it.

It's really okay to admit that you've had your rear handed to you time and time again on this site by me. It doesn't speak poorly of your character at all.

In fact, not acknowledging what you, myself, and everyone else on this website can VERIFY for themselves as truth, that's the character issue.

Instead, you're holding someone accountable for being wrong 2 years ago (despite them acknowledging they were wrong), but you won't hold yourself accountable for being wrong MULTIPLE TIMES in the past 3 months.

This is a serious character flaw of yours. It makes you a bad person, quite frankly. But I'm not surprised. I've met my fair share of White Sox fans. You're par for the course.


14.) 20 Oct 2021 21:27:33
"Shouldn't the "best reliever in baseball" be given the highest leverage spots available, regardless of inning? "

Theoretically? Yes! Unfortunately, Kimbrel seemingly needed a more structured routine.

"I was never convinced that Kimbrel who was really bad in 2019 and 2020 wasn't going to sustain his 2021 numbers with the Cubs. I just didn't buy it. Hence why I thought it was hilarious that anyone would give up MLB-ready talent for"

He was never going to sustain a 0.49 ERA, no, but giving up ML talent for the best reliever in baseball isn't as crazy as you're making it out to be.

Do I make the trade in hindsight? No. However, without the benefit of hindsight, I make that trade 100/ 100 times and I think it would've worked differently had Kimbrel been given the 9th inning from the start, and its absolutely fine for you to disagree with that, a lot of people do - but I'm not the only one that said that Kimbrel should have been the closer from day 1. Hendriks literally said he didn't care what inning he pitched as long as the team won. Kimbrel is trying to rack up saves to build the best HOF resume possible.

"He literally made their bullpen worse when it mattered most. "

Again, this just objectively wrong. I'm not sure what you're thinking about when you make some of the claims that you do, but they're typically non-sensical. Hence:

White Sox bullpen pre-trade: 4.14 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 6th best fWAR

White Sox bullpen post-trade: 3.72 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 2nd best fWAR.

So yeah, no, you were not "right about this" LMAO. The bullpen improved down the stretch after acquiring Kimbrel.

"It's really okay to admit that you've had your rear handed to you time and time again on this site by me. "

LOL, alright dude. I think you're starting to take this a bit too seriously.

"you're holding someone accountable for being wrong 2 years ago (despite them acknowledging they were wrong), but you won't hold yourself accountable for being wrong MULTIPLE TIMES in the past 3 months. "

I promise you, I'm not holding you THIS accountable. Feel free to carry on with your life. I forgive you.

"It makes you a bad person"

WOOOOW, we're getting deep now, Nathan!


15.) 20 Oct 2021 23:41:36
"LITERALLY EVERY STAT SAYING OTHERWISE"

Except, of course, WAR - the only stat you needed back in July when Ruf's was higher.

Regardless, this is an apples to oranges comparison. Any time you have to reference the per 600 PAs stat adjustment to attempt to scale the stats, the comparison is likely a bad one. Why you ever brought up Jose Abreu when discussing Ruf is beyond me.

If the Giants could pay Ruf $1.25 million to take Abreu's role and not have to pay Brandon Belt THE SAME SALARY AS ABREU just to be the strong-side of the platoon, Zaidi would take that instantly - but you know as well as I do that Ruf is not an every day player. But still, as I keep saying and you keep ignoring, I've never bashed Ruf overall as a player. He is a GREAT piece to have on a championship contending team, and the Giants deployed him optimally.

Let this one go my man. It's not that important. Ruf is a good player, and so is Abreu in a drastically different role.


16.) 25 Oct 2021 17:48:51
" but giving up ML talent for the best reliever in baseball isn't as crazy as you're making it out to be. "

It is when it's pretty obvious to a lot of folks, myself included, that Craig Kimbrel was playing well beyond his actual talent. He proved that the moment he traveled down I-94. So yeah, it was crazy then, and it's crazy now, as you even acknowledge.


17.) 25 Oct 2021 17:55:55
"Again, this just objectively wrong. I'm not sure what you're thinking about when you make some of the claims that you do, but they're typically non-sensical. Hence:

White Sox bullpen pre-trade: 4.14 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 6th best fWAR

White Sox bullpen post-trade: 3.72 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 2nd best fWAR.

So yeah, no, you were not "right about this" LMAO. The bullpen improved down the stretch after acquiring Kimbrel. "

You're not actually serious, are you? You understand that the REST of the White Sox bullpen carried the average, right? And that the bullpen would have been SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER had it not been for Kimbrel's 5.09 ERA during his stint, right?

Think of this way, if you have a lazy, good-for-nothing employee, we'll call him "ChiSox", and let's say that ChiSox was decent for a while, and while he was kind of helping out, your company made $50 million in a quarter. But then, the next quarter, all of a sudden, ChiSox just stops coming into work, and he actively loses you money, but your company makes $75M. You wouldn't, in your right mind, look at ChiSox and think, well, collectively we got better when you started being useless, so here's a pay raise.

No, you'd think, "everyone else had to work harder to achieve this success IN SPITE OF YOU. "

ChiSox literally made the company worse than it could have been. Craig Kimbrel literally made the White Sox bullpen worse than it could have been. They were better post-trade deadline in spite of Kimbrel, not because of him.

And maybe, just maybe, without Kimbrel, they could have won TWO PLAYOFF GAMES, instead of just one. Who knows?

But if you're really going to pretend that because the White Sox COLLECTIVE bullpen improved, that Kimbrel didn't hold them back and make them worse, then you truly are the biggest and objectively worst type of homer available.

I actually kind of feel bad for you. You truly believe the laughable BS you keep spewing.


18.) 25 Oct 2021 18:15:44
"Ruf is a good player, and so is Abreu in a drastically different role. "

Yes, Jose Abreu is a STARTING FIRST BASEMAN, paid $17 million dollars a year to be marginally better in terms of wins above replacement than a first baseman who was literally brought to San Francisco to be a replacement level player.

Not to mention, if Darin Ruf is the "weak side of a platoon", what do we do with Abreu, who was worse than Ruf on BOTH SIDES.

wRC+ vs. LHP and RHP

Abreu: 161/ 116
Ruf: 166/ 126

"but you know as well as I do that Ruf is not an every day player. "

That's literally false. Again, the ONLY reason they didn't need Darin Ruf to start full-time was because they had a 1B with a 165 wRC+ against RHP. How many RHH 1B have a 126 wRC+ or better against RHP? Just 7. Some of the names: Vladdy, Goldschmidt, Alonso.

How many have a 166 wRC+ or better against LHP? 3. That's it.

Again, the Giants didn't start him every day because they legitimately don't have to. You see, unlike Rick "2nd Place GM in a Mickey Mouse Season" Hahn, the Giants built up comical depth. And their right-handed platoon 1B, who has 47% of the plate appearances as the White Sox's STARTING 1B was worth 86% of Abreu's WAR.

You understand that's better, right?

Again, if you looked at two businesses, and you said, "Business A made $1 billion dollars while business B made "860 million" therefore, business A is better" you'd probably want to know that Business B is only open 6 months out of the year, compared to Business A, who is open 365 days a year.

Business B is literally better, in every economic and statistical factor.

So you keep dropping the "Darin Ruf is a part-time player" argument, and you continue to fail to recognize that this actually hurts your argument. A part-time player, to the tune of less than half the amount of playing time, was almost as good as the full time player. This is a fact.


19.) 25 Oct 2021 18:40:51
One final way to think about it:

What would Abreu be if he had just 312 plate appearances? He needed over 650 to do what Darin Ruf did in 300.

And then ask, economically, who do you prefer: the guy you only have to pay a million dollars to, play half the time and produces 2.5 wins, or the guy you have to make your most expensive offensive player, play him all the time, and get 2.9 wins?

If you've ever hired someone, ran a business, or even done simple mathematics, you pick the part-time player, literally every time. You wouldn't even think about it.

Producing more in less time is always preferable. Darin Ruf produced a rate of .008 wins per plate appearance. Abreu? .004.

It cost the Giants $4,086 per Darin Ruf plate appearance. It cost the White Sox $25,796 per Abreu PA. Hahn paid 600% more per PA to get just 50% of the production.

The Giants paid $500K per Darin Ruf win. The White Sox paid 5.8 MILLION per Abreu win. Again, they finished with 2.5 wins and 2.9 wins, respectively, which is so marginal that saying Abreu was "better" because of WAR is pretty silly.

Look no further than FG's glossary: "For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. "

I'd bet decent money that the cut-off for this wasn't 0.3, and that 0.4 is suddenly distinguishable.

Their WAR productions are almost identical, and yet, Abreu took twice as long to get to his as Darin Ruf.

This isn't even a matter of me being a homer. Every indication PROVES that Darin Ruf is the more valuable player, and the better player.

If you want to prove yourself as not being a laughable White Sox homer, you should acknowledge this as true. It's the right thing to do if you want to be a person who values facts and lives in the real world.

Somehow, I'm not confident you'll embrace the truth, though.


20.) 26 Oct 2021 14:37:46
"But if you're really going to pretend that because the White Sox COLLECTIVE bullpen improved, that Kimbrel didn't hold them back and make them worse, then you truly are the biggest and objectively worst type of homer available. "

Well, the collective bullpen quite literally improved after the trade per, you know, those pesky stats Nate. This is literally the bullpen as a whole. LOL

Here are the numbers again for you:

White Sox bullpen pre-trade: 4.14 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 6th best fWAR

White Sox bullpen post-trade: 3.72 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 2nd best fWAR.


21.) 26 Oct 2021 15:00:35
Lucky for Zaidi, Belt is now a FA. So he can simply have Ruf play 1B for 150 games and viola, he has a 5-win player for $2.6 million. Given your opinions here, that is the clear and obvious solution.

Oh wait, that would be really dumb to try and deploy a weak-side platoon injury-prone 36 year old bench piece who has never played 120 games in a season for a full season's worth of PAs? You don't say. I think this Zaidi guy is smarter than even you give him credit for!


22.) 26 Oct 2021 15:04:32
And maybe, just maybe, with a better bullpen, the Giants could have won THREE PLAYOFF GAMES, instead of just two. Who knows?


23.) 17 Nov 2021 16:44:22
You clicking the "agree" button 11 times is adorable, Franklin.

The Giants literally took a team that won 105 games to the last game of the NLDS. Their bullpen, for what it's worth, wasn't the reason they lost that series.

But you're continuing to ignore the truth: the Giants went further into the playoffs than the White Sox with a bullpen that consists of:

Tyler Rogers, who throws 82 and doesn't strike out dudes.
Jake McGee, who has been mediocre for most his career.
Dominic Leone and Zack Littell, who were MiLB deals.
Camilo Doval, who had not even a full season above AA ball before becoming the Giants closer.

Meanwhile, the White Sox are going to pay HALF OF THE GIANTS CURRENT PAYROLL on Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks.

And don't forget Aaron "Never going to Regress" Bummer (who is an unmitigated racist. I took 3 classes with him at the University of Nebraska) . According to you, the White Sox top 6 relievers were better than the Giants #1 reliever.

And yet, the White Sox still got ousted in shorter time by a worse team (the Astros, FWIW, had a losing record to the Giants) .

Just face it, little guy, the Giants are an OBJECTIVELY BETTER baseball team than the Chicago White Sox (emphasis on white) .


24.) 18 Nov 2021 16:36:04
Ah so after previously calling Bummer a good dude and rooting for him, now he's an unmitigated racist. Gotcha

You also are insinuating that I said or believe that Bummer was never going to regress, when in reality, you were calling for a massive Bummer regression by citing xFIP as your rationale, LMAO. We don't forget, don't try to twist it.

"You clicking the "agree" button 11 times is adorable, Franklin. "

What? People just recognize you're full of it my man. Welcome to reality. I'm pretty sure you can only vote on a post once.

And wow, it turns out the Cornhuskers really do admit anyone.

"Meanwhile, the White Sox are going to pay HALF OF THE GIANTS CURRENT PAYROLL on Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks. "

As if both of these guys aren't elite relievers, one of which being arguably the best in baseball.

"The Giants literally took a team that won 105 games to the last game of the NLDS. Their bullpen, for what it's worth, wasn't the reason they lost that series. "

It wasn't necessarily why they lost the series, but the Dodgers having a better bullpen than the Giants in game 5 was one of the main reasons why they lost that game. Camilo Doval can't be the guy on the mound when the season is on the line. The fact that you can't admit that is telling how much of a homer you are. The Giants can do no wrong.


 

 

 

natedog's talk posts with other poster's replies to natedog's talk posts

 

18 Oct 2021 14:34:27
Now that both the Giants and White Sox seasons are done, let's do a recap as to where we're at.

After 3 seasons (when Zaidi started and when, supposedly, we're limited to counting Rick Hahn's success), here's where the teams stand:

White Sox: 200-183, 2 playoff wins, 1 division title.
Giants: 213-171, 2 playoff wins, 1 division title.

This, mind you, is a Giants team that had the 106-win Dodgers in their division, and a White Sox team that had legitimately zero other .500 teams in their division.

And to remind you of your own assessment: the Giants were 3-5 years away, and the White Sox were on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

To be honest, Chi Sox, you might be better off deleting this site from your browsing history. It's hilarious how frequently you've proven yourself wrong over the past 18 months or so.

Maybe go learn how microwaves are made, because baseball hot takes aren't your thing.

natedog

1.) 19 Oct 2021 14:43:30
Finally, Chi Sox, there are seriously excellent odds that Farhan Zaidi will be the Executive of the Year, along with Kapler being NL Manager of the Year.

And just so you're clear: they did next to nothing to emulate Rick Hahn or try and match what he did. NOTHING.

And thank goodness he didn't. Otherwise, he would have dropped 8M on Adam Eaton and spinelessly let his owner hire a manager for him.

Maybe Rick Hahn can emulate Farhan Zaidi. After all, his core is only going to get older and he has legitimately baseball's worst farm system. He might need a few pointers. If he's lucky, maybe his team will even win 100+ games in a season for the first time in over 100 years.


2.) 20 Oct 2021 00:06:38
I can admit that I didn't see the Giants winning 107 games with career resurgences from Posey, Longoria and Crawford. Give cresit where credit is due. But then again, you didn't see this coming. We both projected them as third place finishers, as did 99% of baseball fans.

The whole organization deserves a ton of credit for doing what they did. Kapler deserves manager of the year and Zaidi deserves executive.

But as I figured, when you're throwing out someone like Camilo Doval, who was pitching in high-A just 50 innings prior, with your season on the line against the Dodgers in the postseason, it most likely isn't going to end well. There pen wasn't their ultimate issue in that series (they didn't hit enough), but it was at the end of game 5.

If the Sox had some competition from at least one other team in their division to keep that marginal value of a win on a daily basis higher than it was, they probably would have won more than the shameful 93 that they did. It would've also helped had they not had the most WAR lost from injuries in the major leagues. They otherwise probably would have been closer to 100. But again, when you effectively clinch in July, you rest guys, skip starts, etc.

You probably will see a lot of teams emulate the Giants this offseason tbh. Zaidi has turned them into one of the best orgs in baseball. Still, my point about Zaidi building a core like Hahn did still stands. Crawford, Posey, Belt, Longoria, Yaz etc. will be gone sooner rather than later. They are going to have the monetary resources to spend expeditiously in the coming offseason, but that almost always how teams SUPPLEMENT their young cores and then find success. Trying to do it the other way around is a lot more difficult.

I'll be very interested to see how they handle their flexibility.


3.) 20 Oct 2021 15:00:58
"when you're throwing out someone like Camilo Doval, who was pitching in high-A just 50 innings prior, with your season on the line against the Dodgers in the postseason"

Tell me you watched ZERO Giants games without telling me you watched ZERO Giants games. It's okay, you've shown your incompetence time and time again. I expect this from you. From his addition back onto the 26-Man roster, Camilo Doval gave up exactly one run, against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. 16.1 IP, 22 Ks, 1 ER since September 1st. He WAS the guy for the Giants, and he was dominant. I suspect he'll be a crucial part of the Giants bullpen for a long time.

"But then again, you didn't see this coming. We both projected them as third place finishers, as did 99% of baseball fans. "

Right, but I also didn't stupidly suggest that Zaidi would be contending by 2027, or that the Giants were soooo far away. There's a big difference there.

"my point about Zaidi building a core like Hahn did still stands. "

And my point about Rick Hahn doing NOTHING revolutionary still stands. He didn't "revolutionize" the pre-arb deal. He didn't revolutionize the idea of trading good veterans for good prospects. He's done nothing that anyone is trying to emulate. In fact, his team had absolutely zero depth. None. He was so spineless that his owner wouldn't listen to his input on who the manager should be. So therein lay two serious reasons why Rick Hahn's teams CONTINUE their failure to launch.

But yeah, I'm sure Farhan Zaidi is desperate to emulate a GM (not a president of baseball ops, but an inferior role) who has an abundance of young talent and just finished 14 games behind his team where the average age of starters was over 30-years-old.

My prediction: Rick Hahn emulates Farhan Zaidi, by trying to find undervalued veterans with specific skillsets to help build cheap, but meaningful depth to his team.

That's right, it stands to reason that Rick Hahn will be the emulator.

"Crawford, Posey, Belt, Longoria, Yaz etc. will be gone sooner rather than later. "

I mean, it's not like the Giants don't have Luciano, Ramos, Matos, Bart, Bishop, Toribio, etc. And even if you don't think they'll be good, keep in mind, if the Giants can turn LaMonte Wade, Jr. (who they acquired for the thrice DFA'd Shaun Anderson) into a 117 wRC+ hitter, you'd be silly to think that they can't do it with damn-near anyone.

The Giants will be a very good team for the foreseeable future. The White Sox? We'll see.


4.) 20 Oct 2021 15:23:23
The Giants will likely do what they did the past two seasons: find good value 1-year contracts. Think Noah Syndergaard or Andrew Heaney types. They'll do the same with a few position players. I'd imagine they flex their spending muscles with a pitcher and probably go after Kris Bryant, but even that accounts for the organization: the Giants don't have a lock-down 3B prospect out there. And they need a lot of starting pitching.

But they also have intriguing options for pitching: Hjelle, Beck, Frisbee, Plassmeyer, Dabovich, Corry, Ragsdale. And even guys who made appearances in 2021: Santos, Kervin Castro, Sam Long, etc.

The Giants gameplan is, and has been, to win games in the in-between. And they just did, to the tune of MLB's best record. They had to add DeSclafani, Wood, and re-sign Gausman last winter. They have 4 open SP spots instead of 3 this time around, but more options internally.

And the thing is, Austin, the Giants also aren't unwilling to spend money. So they can do whatever they foreseeably wish to do. Seeing what Farhan Zaidi did with this rag-tag roster, I'm not the least bit worried about the future.

They've got a huge group of young, intriguing players for 2022, and a comical depth of riches financially. And yet, their best offseason acquisition will probably be some 48 wRC+ outfielder who they turn into a star.


5.) 20 Oct 2021 20:58:28
The fact that he was THE guy for the Giants in their biggest game of the year simply because of a good 16-inning stretch is my point. He was their best option when the Dodgers had Treinen, Jansen and Scherzer. Again, Doval's NOT why they lost that series or even that game necessarily, but he's a big reason why they got outplayed at the end of that game.

The Sox had the most WAR lost from injuries in the entire league in 2021, still won 93 games, and yet they have no depth? I'm not sure I follow. Their farm system is objectively weak, yes, but their depth propelled them in 2021. How did your saying go? "Tell me you didn't watch the White Sox without telling me you didn't watch the White Sox. "

But for you, you might even be able to extend that to - "Tell me you don't know baseball without telling me you don't know baseball. "

Also, do me a favor and stop slightly changing the context of my words in your replies, it's very tiresome and childish. Just like I never guaranteed that Cesar Hernandez would be better than Trevor Story like you insinuated, I never said that Hahn revolutionized the GM position, lmao. I simply said that he's done a pretty damn good job. Slow down, read, and fully comprehend hat you're reading. It goes a long way as you attempt to make sound, coherent arguments.

Hahn didn't revolutionize the pre-arb deal, he just started doing it a lot more than every other team and they've all worked out really well so far. If Zaidi is smart, he'll look to extend one or more of their top prospects at an opportune time like Hahn did. Likewise, Hahn and every other GM will likely take a page out of the Giants book in 2022. That's no secret. Again, what he was able to do in 2021 was tremendously impressive and no one is arguing against that.


Also, let's look at the facts here:

Do the White Sox have a young, affordable, major league performant core currently? Yes.
Do the Giants have a young, affordable, major league performant core currently? No.
Do the Giants have a good looking farm system that COULD turn into a young affordable core? Yes.
Therefore, is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what Rick Hahn did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core? Precisely.

I don't blame you for being confident in the Giants ability to turn the group you mentioned into a solid core, but to say something like "no one is trying to emulate Hahn" is just objectively wrong. Every team is desperately trying to build a good young core - that's the first big step usually. The Sox haven't supplemented the core optimally yet, and that's been their new goal.

Your determination to not give the White Sox a lick of credit is unnecessary. You wanted them to lose so bad.

"He was so spineless that his owner wouldn't listen to his input on who the manager should be. "

I think you're confused. This isn't how organizational hierarchies work. Hahn reports to Jerry Reinsdorf and Zaidi reports to Charles Johnson. Hahn not being able to go over JR's head to hire the manager of his choice doesn't make him "spineless" lol. That's not how it works. Jerry literally owns the team. What he says, goes. He wanted to hire his buddy, TLR, so that's what happened. Hahn can't just tell his boss no, lmao. You might learn that after you graduate high school.

If Charles Johnson woke up today and after donating a couple more million to QAnon, called Zaidi and said "we're firing Kapler and hiring Buck Showalter today and that's that", guess what, Buck Showalter would be the new Giants manager tomorrow and Zaidi, like Hahn, would be left to twiddle his thumbs.


6.) 20 Oct 2021 21:05:32
"My prediction: Rick Hahn emulates Farhan Zaidi, by trying to find undervalued veterans with specific skillsets to help build cheap, but meaningful depth to his team. "

OMG, stop saying that Zaidi revolutionized acquiring undervalued veterans -- he literally just read Moneyball.

See how dumb that sounds?


7.) 25 Oct 2021 19:02:16
See, the difference is, I never actually said Zaidi revolutionalized anything. You literally used that phrase: "So, he's revolutionized the pre-arb extension idea and is trying to avoid what Theo Epstein (twice) couldn't do" (Dec 20, 2020).

Please know the difference, please and thank you.


8.) 25 Oct 2021 19:20:18
"The Sox had the most WAR lost from injuries in the entire league in 2021, still won 93 games, and yet they have no depth? I'm not sure I follow"

You see, Craig, when the White Sox play in a division that has the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and the Cleveland Baseball Team, a group of rabid rhesus monkeys could win 93 games. It's not that difficult to comprehend this. Reasonable people can do this. Then again, no one here is accusing you of being reasonable.

"Hahn didn't revolutionize the pre-arb deal"

Except you literally told me that Hahn revolutionalized the pre-arb deal. Those were your exact words. Verbatim. You even went as far as using that exact word. But now, you never said it? You'd make an excellent politician (don't take that as a compliment) .

"Therefore, is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what Rick Hahn did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core? Precisely. "

I'll fix that for you: "is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what EVERY SUCCESSFUL GM SINCE THE TURN OF THE MILLENIUM did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core?
Precisely. "

Willfully inserting Rick Hahn, as if he's the inventor, revolutionizer, or trailblazer of this strategy is the biggest homer thing to do. Rick Hahn is doing what Jeff Luhnow did, who did what Theo Epstein did, who did what Brian Sabean did. and other GMs who did this same thing. Building a core to win championships pre-dates Rick Hahn.

"If Zaidi is smart, he'll look to extend one or more of their top prospects at an opportune time like Hahn did. "

I'd argue he doesn't need to, simply based off how the Giants spend versus how the White Sox spend. It's pretty clear that Reinsdorf doesn't want to spend a lot of money on his teams. The Giants are willing to, and thus, they aren't afraid of paying arbitration costs or free agency costs. Locking players into long-term deals before they even reach the majors is a good strategy for the White Sox considering their context. But it's by no means necessary for the San Francisco Giants whose financial situation is almost without comparison in the league.

"If Charles Johnson woke up today and after donating a couple more million to QAnon, called Zaidi and said "we're firing Kapler and hiring Buck Showalter today and that's that", guess what, Buck Showalter would be the new Giants manager tomorrow and Zaidi, like Hahn, would be left to twiddle his thumbs. "

Well, considering Charles Johnson has very, very little say in the day-to-day operations, and that the Giants ownership structure gives Larry Baer this control (and has checks and balances in place), this would never happen.

Speaking of not understanding hierarchical structures.


9.) 25 Oct 2021 19:31:59
"The fact that he was THE guy for the Giants in their biggest game of the year simply because of a good 16-inning stretch is my point. He was their best option when the Dodgers had Treinen, Jansen and Scherzer. Again, Doval's NOT why they lost that series or even that game necessarily, but he's a big reason why they got outplayed at the end of that game. "

Hello Motte, meet Bailey.


10.) 25 Oct 2021 20:26:07
Not to mention, it IS spineless to let your owner do the job he is paying you to do. Jerry Reinsdorf isn't the GM of the White Sox. And if Rick Hahn had a higher amount of T than the guys targeted in that Frank Thomas commercial, he would have been vociferous in his objection to the TLR hire. He wasn't. He publicly made it clear that he supported the decision.

And it's more likely than not, both based on his comments and common sense, that Hahn knew about La Russa's DUI arrest prior to him being hired. And if he didn't, the Hahn is incompetent to be a leader.

There's zero chance they interviewed, hired, on-boarded, and did all the administrative work on TLR and not have Rick Hahn know about this. Zero.

He allowed his boss to micro-manage him and then willfully shut his mouth regarding a DUI arrest that marred the hiring and looked bad on his organization. And he didn't resign? If he's as desirable and as worthy of emulation as you suggest, he'd be able to find a president of baseball ops job tomorrow, with an organization whose owner would listen to him.

And yet, Hahn allowed his team to proceed with hiring a multiple-offense DUI manager, allowed his boss to walk all over him, and still remains with that organization.

Yeah, I feel that "spineless" isn't the right word. It doesn't even come close to accurately defining the character of Rick Hahn. He's much, much worse than spineless.


11.) 26 Oct 2021 14:31:32
My point with the pre-arb extensions regarding Hahn was that find me another GM in the arbitration era who has not only done more extensions, but have them pretty much all work wonderfully for the club (so far) . He didn't invent it obviously, but he made it a point of emphasis more than anyone I can remember, unless you have a better example.

"Well, considering Charles Johnson has very, very little say in the day-to-day operations, and that the Giants ownership structure gives Larry Baer this control (and has checks and balances in place), this would never happen. "

Johnson, Baer, whoever. My point still stands. You called Hahn spineless because he doesn't have control over his boss - an awful take

You keep bringing up the AL Central, but the Giants literally went 32-6 against the Rockies and Diamondbacks.

"The Sox had no depth"

"Well, see, yes they did. A lot of their good players got hurt and they replaced them with above average players"

"Oh, dang, well, THEIR DIVSION SUCKED SO HAAA"

Ok, and? Shame on the White Sox for not having better competition in the AL Central? Their pythag win total was 97 and again, they had the most WAR lost due to injury by a wide margin. They could have easily been a 100-win team if they weren't playing literally two of their everyday bats through stretches in June/ July.

"Hello Motte, meet Bailey. "

After you learned about this in English class last month, you have been wearing it out. It doesn't apply here, unfortunately, because you said the Giants were just fine with their bullpen - actually you said it was maybe the best bullpen of all postseason teams. The bullpen didn't really need a Treinen or Jansen per you. That bullpen presented a wildly talented, but woefully unexperienced Doval with their season on the line, and it played out how one would expect. It's not a Jason Motte and Andrew Bailey, you were just wrong.

"he would have been vociferous in his objection to the TLR hire. "

Pretty much everyone believes he was. But seriously, you acting like Hahn presented this idea of hiring TLR to the organization is just wrong. Reinsdorf unilaterally decided this. La Russa is his buddy who he "wrongfully" fired back in the 80s and this was him "righting his wrong". The man is entitled - he has seven rings and anted to say he could hire his Hall of Fame buddy to manage his last era of White Sox teams.

"There's zero chance they interviewed, hired, on-boarded, and did all the administrative work on TLR and not have Rick Hahn know about this. Zero. "

Yeah he couldn't care that much because he owner didn't. Heck, Hahn was probably the one that sent Passan the police report.

" If he's as desirable and as worthy of emulation as you suggest, he'd be able to find a president of baseball ops job tomorrow, with an organization whose owner would listen to him. "

If he didn't already build a damn good team in Chicago, he'd probably be seriously considering the Mets or Padres jobs tbh.

You're seriously overthinking this. When you own a baseball team, you decide what goes and what doesn't. Right after Renteria was fired last year, Hahn said that he was looking for a "younger manager with recent postseason success" before JR said F that and hired TLR.

Go into work tomorrow Nate and tell your boss (or literally the owner of the company) what he or she's going to do for the day and how things are going to run from now on - let me know how that goes for you. Or are you too spineless?


12.) 28 Oct 2021 18:44:58
"You keep bringing up the AL Central, but the Giants literally went 32-6 against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. "

They also went 10-9 against the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers. Interesting how you failed to point that one out. How many 100+ win teams were in the AL Central? Oh wait, they didn't have a second team finish over .500? Oh, whoops.

Imagine having a division with the Twins, Royals, AND the Tigers and having just one above-.500 team. That's pretty bad.


13.) 28 Oct 2021 18:59:35
"Go into work tomorrow Nate and tell your boss (or literally the owner of the company) what he or she's going to do for the day and how things are going to run from now on - let me know how that goes for you. Or are you too spineless? "

Well, considering I'm part owner of the business my father and I run (a business telecommunications company), this wouldn't really apply. But let's apply it anyway. If my father started hiring sales representatives without consulting me first, I'd absolutely speak up. Not just because I'm part-owner, but also because sales was delegated to me. That's my realm. There's also a mutual respect between the other owner (my father) and I.

This doesn't seem to be the case in the Chicago White Sox front office. I'd guess it has part to do with a doofus owner and part to do with a limp-wristed, panty-waisted GM.

But if my father (who founded the company) overstepped into my delegated area, and then proceeded to withhold information about that new hire having a criminal record, then I'd 100% step down.

Once again, Rick Hahn didn't do this. He has no right to speak up about TLR's issues and still be willfully and gainfully employed by that organization. None.

Once again, it's a serious, serious character issue on Hahn's part. His boss tried to hide the manager's DUI arrest (which, again, wasn't his first offense) and allowed it to potentially hold negative ramifications on Rick Hahn, Kenny Williams, and others within the organization (none of whom have the financial leverage that Reinsdorf has) .

A man with scruples would have resigned and refused to work in such an environment. Not Rick Hahn. He stuck around and even came around to praise TLR on many, many different occasions.

I firmly believe he's a bad person for it. But you continue to worship him at his altar. Says a lot about you, to be honest.


14.) 28 Oct 2021 20:03:40
Right, I think we should shame the White Sox due to the incompetency of Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit and Minnesota in 2021. It's entirely Rick Hahn and the White Sox's fault for their poor play.

"Imagine having a division with the Twins, Royals, AND the Tigers and having just one above-.500 team. That's pretty bad. "

You realize this leaves just one other team right? LOL. The AL Central race probably would have been at least a little different if Cleveland didn't lose their entire starting rotation to injury in the middle of the season.


15.) 29 Oct 2021 19:58:39
You're not being serious, are you? So I guess Cashman should resign because of Aroldis Champman and Dombrowski because of Odubel Herrera and their domestic violence issues. How about Chaim Bloom? He rehired the architect of the Astros cheating scandal. How about Al Avila in Detroit? How could Alex Anthopolis GM such a blatantly racist Atlanta Braves organization? How could Zaidi work for someone like Charles Johnson? He must support QAnon.

Right, right, right but Rick Hahn has moral issues because his boss went over his head to hire his friend who's a borderline alcoholic.

We don't know for sure what was said regarding TLR's hire behind closed doors. For all we know, Hahn could have been adamant that it would be a terrible move. What we do know is that before he was hired and AFTER La Russa was interviewed, Hahn expressed publicly that, again, they were looking for a quote "young manager with recent postseason success. " Heck, when they posted the "Welcome back to Chicago! " Tony La Russa hiring announcement graphics on Twitter, A. J. Hinch's signature was accidentally pasted next to TLR's name. Who do you think most of the org figured was going to be hired until the eleventh hour?

I'm one of the biggest TLR haters out there in terms of Sox fans and I don't even drink because of potential problems like DUIs which is an awful action, but to act like La Russa is a horrible human being given what others have done and still remain affiliated with MLB is a terrible take, but you may just be trolling at this point. At least I hope so for your sake.


16.) 05 Nov 2021 14:02:22
"but to act like La Russa is a horrible human being given what others have done and still remain affiliated with MLB is a terrible take"

You know two things can be true at the same time, right? I think it's important that you understand this. TLR willingly, knowingly getting behind the wheel while intoxicated on more than one occasion, which risks the lives of every person around him, puts him solely in the "horrible human being" category. He's there along with Chapman or Herrera.

And also, if you think a guy donating to candidates who support a stupid conspiracy theory is the same as a guy who risks killing people by drinking and driving, then you're the one trolling here.

As far as Giants ownership goes, Charles Johnson doesn't even have a voice within the Giants front office. That's handled by Larry Baer and Greg Johnson (who states that he doesn't hold his father's political views) . He's literally principal owner, meaning he put up the most money and has the largest stake should the team get sold. He's rarely even in the board meetings (again, his son does that on his behalf) .

Meanwhile, Rick Hahn WAS in the meetings. Regardless of what he may or may not have voiced prior to TLR's hiring, he still willingly stuck around with a club that employed him. He can voice whatever he feels now, but he still stayed with the White Sox. That much won't change.

But hey, TLR was never accused of beating his spouse. He just risked killing people behind the road. He's not that bad of a guy, right? Right?

I really hope you have a few more scruples about you this this, Dominic, but you're doing your damnedest to convince me otherwise.


 

 

22 Sep 2021 21:18:18
One last bit for Chi Sox, you asked if there was any correlation between success vs. .500 teams and success in the playoffs. There is.

I went from 2014-2019, and out of 24 teams who made it to the LCS in their respective leagues, just THREE (3) had losing records against .500 teams:

2015 Mets
2014 Royals
2014 Giants

Surprisingly, all 3 of these teams made it to the World Series, and one (2014 Giants) even won the Series.

But that's just 12% of the teams. From 2016-2019, there were zero of those 16 teams.

Make of that what you wish, but there is a direct, recent correlation between beating good teams in the regular season and success in the playoffs.

So the White Sox's 25-29 record against .500 teams isn't stellar.

Also, let's make something clear: the White Sox 25 wins against teams with .500 records IS THE LOWEST TOTAL IN BASEBALL.

The White Sox are a mediocre team who hasn't played anyone. And when they do play teams, they don't do very well. They currently hold a -15 run differential against those teams.

Let's check in on the "3 years from contention Giants"

They are 43-34 against .500 teams, with a +29 run differential. In other words, they are 44 runs better against good teams than the White Sox.

The Giants are an objectively better team than the Chicago White Sox.

I'll stop posting so you can read these updates through your tears.

natedog

1.) 23 Sep 2021 19:30:54
It shouldn't be difficult to make the correlation, though. The only teams you're playing in the postseason are teams with winning records. So it stands to reason that success against these teams in the regular season is a good indicator of success against them in the postseason.

So, where do the White Sox and Giants rank, individually, against .500 or better teams, let's go take a looksy.

Offense-
Giants: 100 wRC+. .317 wOBA, 116 HR (ranked 3rd)
White Sox: 94 wRC+, .307 wOBA, 51 HR (ranked 12th)

Rotation-
Giants: 388.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, .303 wOBA, 3.92 FIP (ranked 6th)
White Sox: 280.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, .282 wOBA, 3.43 FIP (ranked 3rd)

Bullpen-
Giants: 1285 TBF, 3.47 ERA, .288 wOBA, 4.15 FIP (ranked 3rd)
White Sox: 837 TBF. 4.76 ERA, .334 wOBA, 4.22 FIP (ranked 26th)

The difference in innings pitched and total batters faced is hilarious. The Giants have over 400 more batters faced in this scenario, and more than 100 starting pitcher innings.

The White Sox also have the lowest total of plate appearances against .500 teams of anyone in baseball, with 1999. They simply aren't facing good baseball teams, which is probably good for them. They are really bad when they actually have to.

But hey, at least Rick Hahn was once the runner-up in Sporting News' Executive of the Year. He's got that going for him!


2.) 25 Sep 2021 19:10:33
“Make of that what you wish”, ya, no chance of random variance in a sample of 24 teams, lol. I appreciate your research effort, however.

As you showed, they’re only 4 games under .500 with only a -15 run differential. They’ve played the other postseason teams very tightly. 10 of those 29 losses have been by 1-run.

If this is your evidence that there’s no way that they do anything in the postseason this year, then so be it. Others share your same sentiment.


3.) 27 Sep 2021 18:10:48
Assuming the Yankees and Red Sox end up as the Wild Card teams (which seems likely at this juncture), here's how the White Sox played against the playoff teams:

10-16, -39 Run Differential. Five of those wins were by just one run, as well.

Their first round opponent has 402 record with a +12 RD against the White Sox, and that's actually hurt by a 10-1 game in which the Astros threw their 3 worst relievers on the roster.

And again, this isn't just "my evidence". It's literally not happened once since 2016. Can it happen? Sure. But if you're betting on it, your best bet is to go against the White Sox.

Based on your predictions after the trade deadline, it might benefit you to switch it up a bit.


4.) 28 Sep 2021 00:19:15
LOL - "The Astros threw the worst 3 relievers on the roster"

In the 4 games the Astros won in Houston, the Sox deployed Ruiz, Burdi, Heuer, Foster, and Burr for 13 of the 15.1 relief innings.

Oh, and FYI, 4 of the losses, just like 5 of the wins against the AL postseason teams, were by one run.

Cherry picking facts per usual.


 

 

22 Sep 2021 20:31:44
Also, Chi Sox. Since August 1st:

Cesar Hernandez: .264 wOBA, .591 OPS, 66 wRC+, 3 HR.

Trevor Story: .388 wOBA, .926 OPS, 131 wRC+, 10 HR.

In your own words, "Hernandez could easily be just as valuable as Story ROS."

He wasn't, and it wasn't even remotely close LOLOLOLOL.

Between that and the Craig Kimbrel statements, can we just chalk this up to you blowing smoke out of your you-know-where?

natedog

1.) 25 Sep 2021 18:32:23
Process over results. I don’t believe you foreshadowed Hernandez’s struggles. Hernandez outperforming Story was a very possible outcome.

Nonetheless, it’s been disappointing.


2.) 08 Oct 2021 14:02:37
"Hernandez outperforming Story was a very possible outcome. "

So was you being correct about anything over the course of this season, but that didn't happen, now did it?


 

 

22 Sep 2021 20:13:45
Hey Chi Sox, can we get an update on how elite closer Craig Kimbrel is doing for the White Sox?

I'll help you out.

Since joining the White Sox, Kimbrel has 5.68 ERA, 4 HR, and an incredible 25% save percentage!

Against playoff contenders, it's, how do you say it, not great.

4.35 ERA, .305 wOBA against, 2 blown saves.

Yes, what an incredible, elite relief pitcher the White Sox acquired LMAOOOO.

natedog

1.) 25 Sep 2021 18:30:03
Yep, going off of a 20 inning sample for a pitcher sure is great practice. Kimbrel clearly sucks now!

It’s a patented Natedog pre-mature victory lap.


2.) 27 Sep 2021 18:18:14
After 39 games, you believed Craig Kimbrel was the next coming of Jesus Christ to the White Sox.

But after 22 games, in which he looks exactly the same as he did in 2019, it's too early to tell.

It's absolutely adorable to see you continue to spin these things into some silver lining. I mean, no one is questioning your lack of homerish devotion to the White Sox. We are, however, questioning your sanity.

Craig Kimbrel has been an unmitigated disaster for the White Sox since that trade. The fact that the White Sox have zero competition from an absolute laughingstock of a division possibly makes it easier to swallow, but yeah, if you're trying to pretend he's been good, then you're out of your mind.


3.) 27 Sep 2021 23:20:10
There's a middle ground between being an "unmitigated disaster" and what he was prior to the trade.

"After 39 games, you believed Craig Kimbrel was the next coming of Jesus Christ to the White Sox. "

Really, I said it gives them an extremely valuable advantage come playoff time, and I still feel this way. Teams like the Giants have had to deploy their pen with playoff-like tendencies, the White Sox have not, because, you know, the whole marginal value of a win thing.

It's also funny, because if the roles were flipped, you'd be singing the praises of xFIP regression like no other. Surely the entire Giants Bullpen outperforming their xFIPs by a run and a half won't come back to bite them ever. Surely not!

Wait and see.


4.) 08 Oct 2021 14:11:48
No, Chi Sox. See, unlike you—who has never once accepted a single argument for regression when it comes to the White Sox—not one time—I can acknowledge when regression is likely.

Wanna know why Zaidi doesn't invest a laughable amount of resources into his bullpen? Because the year-over-year volatility of relief pitching is pretty obvious. Hey, it's almost like I've said this a half-dozen times on this very website!

xFIP is a joke of a stat anyway LOL. It punishes pitchers for not giving up home runs.

But if you want to talk about FIP regression (which is statistically very real), yeah, I'm more than willing to accept it. It would be dumb of me to talk about it, and then not apply it to the Giants, simply out of fandom.

That would be something YOU do, and have done, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many times.

But hey, while we're talking about playoff bullpens, I guess it's good that Craig Kimbrel can't blow saves when the White Sox won't take the lead late in a playoff game. Man, that playoff bullpen of Chicago's. SO GOOD! LOL

YOU'RE SO BAD AT THIS.


 

 

16 Aug 2021 14:36:28
Let's make some playoff predictions:

Playoff Teams:
AL #1- Houston
AL #2- Tampa Bay
AL #3- Chicago
AL WC- Boston
AL WC- Toronto

NL #1- San Francsico
NL #2- Milwaukee
NL #3- Philadelphia
NL WC- Los Angeles
NL WC- Cincinnati

AL WC- Boston over New York
NL WC- Los Angeles over Cincinnati

ALDS- Houston over Boston (3-1)
ALDS- Tampa Bay over Chicago (3-0)
NLDS- San Francisco over LA (3-2)
NL DS- Milwaukee over Philly (3-1)

ALCS- Tampa Bay over Houston (4-1)
NLCS- Milwaukee over San Francisco (4-3)

World Series- Tampa Bay over Milwaukee (4-2)

Awards
AL MVP- Shohei Ohtani
AL Cy Young- Lance Lynn
AL ROY- Adolis Garcia

NL MVP- Fernando Tatis, Jr.
NL Cy Young- Corbin Burnes
NL ROY- Trevor Rogers.

natedog

1.) 28 Aug 2021 01:04:56
The real question is: will the AL Central winner have a better record than the 2nd Wild Card team?

As of August 27th, they have a 1 game lead on the Red Sox and are losing 6-1 to the Cubs (LOLOLOL) as I write this.

At this point, they barely have a lead over the Athletics. Seriously, the White Sox may not even have one of the top 5 records in the American league.

They are a joke. And the AL Central is a laughingstock.


2.) 28 Aug 2021 17:06:39
This guy could hardly go a month without an unprompted dig at the White Sox, then it backfires.

The second wild care team will likely be fighting tooth and nail until the last day of the season. The Sox might clinch in mid-Sept. It would be nice to get a home-field ALDS, but not at the expense of lineup health or dis-aligning the rotation. Boston or Oakland could very well end up with a better record than the White Sox, but it doesn't matter. One of those teams is getting a one-game playoff, the Sox are not.

The Sox have a 4.5 game lead on the A's, who they just took 3 of 4 from. I guess that's barely, but if it is, what would you call the Giants lead on LAD?

The Giants might literally play a one and done playoff game after a 100+ win season. That would worry me.

Oh and FYI, the Sox scored 16 (! ) runs after your comment there about the game. Tough look. Their lineup, with everyone healthy, is fun to watch.

Keep the digs coming.


3.) 22 Sep 2021 19:47:25
Nearly one month after my comment, here's where it stands in the American League:

TBR- 93-59
HOU- 90-61
BOS- 87-65
WHITE SOX- 85-66
TOR- 85-66
NYY- 85-67

They are another loss to the Tigers away from being outside of the Top 5 teams in their own league.

This was a team that, 9 months ago, you were comparing to the Los Angeles Dodgers LMAOOO.

This is a team that plays in, STATISTICALLY, the worst division in baseball.

Yes, your Chicago "Just As Good as the Los Angeles Dodgers" White Sox play in baseball's WORST DIVISION, and yet, they can barely squeak in the top 5 teams in their own league.

Meanwhile, the Giants, who you said were 3-4 years away, LEAD BASEBALL with the best record, all the while having the second best record in baseball also in their division. (That team is also the one you compared your White Sox to) .

I guess you can feel good about being the worst division leader that plays in the worst division in baseball.

YAY for mediocrity!


4.) 25 Sep 2021 18:26:06
Man, you’re awfully concerned with the White Sox for someone who isn’t a fan. You want them to lose so bad, lol.

Why don’t you sit back and enjoy your own first place team?

The White Sox clinched their division months ago. They don’t have to fight tooth and nail to win everyday like the Giants do. It’s clearly evident in their day-to-day decision-making. San Francisco is trying to avoid their season potentially being over in a 3-hour span.


 

 

 

natedog's rumour replies

 

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02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

02 Dec 2021 14:55:47
Here's a question for you:

If you're looking at investing in stock, and you see that the company made $1 billion last year, would you invest?

Before you answer, some further information. The company made $1 billion dollars from January to June, and exactly zero dollars from July to December. Still interested?

More information: the company was actually LOSING money, in fact, close to $500M from the two years prior. Now how interested are you?

I'd reckon you wouldn't be very interested, and for good reason.

This is Craig Kimbrel. He was really, really, really good for a brief period, but overall, he's been really bad. And trying to sell him like he made a billion dollars, thus he's worth a billion now is a really bad take, even for your standards, James.

natedog

 

 

Click To View This Thread

02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.

natedog

 

 

 

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