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14 Mar 2022 12:23:10
Giants remaining moves:

-Sign Richard Rodriguez, 1/5.5M
-Sign Danny Duffy 1/$6M (with an $8M 2023 option, $500K buyout)
-Acquire OF Brent Rooker from Minnesota for 1B/3B Luis Toribio

Lineup
2B- La Stella
1B- Belt
SS- Crawford
LF- Wade/Rooker
DH- Ruf
3B- Longoria
RF- Yastrzemski/Slater
CF- Duggar/Slater
C- Bart/Casali

Bench
C- Bart/Casali
INF- Flores
OF- Slater
OF- Rooker

Rotation
-Webb
-Rodon
-DeSclafani
-Cobb
-Wood

Bullpen-
-Doval (R)
-Rodriguez (R)
-McGee (L)
-Rogers (R)
-Leone (R)
-Alvarez (L)
-Garcia (L)
-Littell (R)
-Carlos Martinez (R)

Note: Danny Duffy starts the season on the IL.

natedog

1.) 14 Mar 2022 13:06:07
On a second look, there are 27 guys on this roster. Until we know for sure if there will be expanded rosters to start the year, I guess Zack Littell starts in the minors.


2.) 05 Apr 2022 18:15:40
Kind of ironic you bringing up White Sox injuries when your 1, 4, and 6 hitters here are on the shelf, Nathan.


3.) 06 Apr 2022 14:01:51
Well, if all else fails, I can pull the old "bUt ThE iNjUrIeS" excuse like White Sox fans did last year (and likely will this year) .

But hey, look at your team, they are going to have Vince Velasquez start games. Good thing you've got that deep bullpen and offense. 8-0 deficits after the 3rd inning may be tough to overcome.

Wade will be back in the lineup as early as next week, and La Stella as well (he may be okay for Opening Day, at least off the bench) . And in the meantime, the Giants run Estrada/ Flores in the infield and Joc Pederson as Slater's platoon partner? That's not a bad thing.

This is what you get when you build tremendous depth all around the field.

Meanwhile, the White Sox's depth includes Vince Velasquez and Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation and Kyle Crick in the bullpen LOL.

But I look forward to the excuses when you're using Reese "Choking the Chicken" McGuire as the starting catcher by mid-May.

The Twins and Tigers got better. The White Sox have Vince Velasquez as a starting pitcher. Should be comical to watch.


4.) 06 Apr 2022 14:23:58
While we're at it, if there's ever been a fit for the White Sox, Kyle Crick is it.

Losing your season because you broke your hand fighting a teammate? Between him and Tim Anderson's violence issues, Reese McGuire's perversion, and Tony La Russa's substance-abuse issues, the White Sox sure do know how to pick 'em.


5.) 06 Apr 2022 16:55:51
The National League is terrified of the Giants infield of Flores, Crawford, Estrada and Belt.


6.) 06 Apr 2022 21:36:07
LOL. That group hit a combined 135 wRC+ and .371 wOBA, along with 78 HR (19 per hitter) on an .874 OPS.

So yeah, they probably should be. Because that's really damn good.


 

 

02 Dec 2021 04:02:57
JBJ and lesser prospects for Hunter Renfroe.

To think, the Brewers missed their chance at acquiring Dallas Keuchel and his 18M salary!

Dang. Their loss.

natedog

1.) 02 Dec 2021 15:00:09
Could have saved two pretty good prospects! Good thing Milwaukee's farm system is already elite.


2.) 02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.


 

 

29 Nov 2021 16:36:11
White Sox-Braves trade:

Braves get: Craig Kimbrel

White Sox get: Ronald Acuna, Jr.


How could the Braves ever turn down getting a top 10 reliever in the league for a guy with a busted up ACL?

Chi Sox logic.

natedog

1.) 29 Nov 2021 18:52:57
Guys, Natedog is really struggling to cope right now. He's posting ridiculous trades and slapping my name on it, creating friends on this forum to agree with him because his takes are that bad, and his team even lost Kevin Gausman after I was correct about his market.

Let's support him in this time of need.


2.) 30 Nov 2021 16:25:28
Funny thing is, this is more realistic than literally any trade proposal Chi Sox has ever made.

Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys.


3.) 30 Nov 2021 17:54:37
Which trade are you alluding to, Nathan?


4.) 30 Nov 2021 19:16:10
Jean Segura for Craig Kimbrel LMAOOOO.


5.) 01 Dec 2021 14:24:30
Kevin Gausman for $84 million LMAOOOO. Remember, he said he wanted to return to SF. I was reliably told by you.


6.) 01 Dec 2021 18:38:19
I mean, he said it in multiple interviews. Grant Brisbee, Alex Pavolovic, Kerry Crowley, and Andrew Baggerly ALL mentioned the comment.

He then further indicated that his feelings were hurt that the Giants weren't as hot on his trail as he wished they were.

It turns out, the Toronto Blue Jays offered more money than the Giants were, and more years (rumor mill circling that the Giants offered 4/ 90 to Gausman) .

So saying that Gausman wanted to return wasn't made up gobbledygook like we're used to seeing from you. It was a quote straight from the man himself.


7.) 01 Dec 2021 19:12:16
Gausman's quote to The Athletic:

“To be honest, I don’t think the Giants expected me to pitch as well as I did this year, ” Gausman told The Athleitc. “So I’m not putting my eggs into one basket. I’m trying to focus on what I can control right now, which is basically nothing. But yeah, I hope they’ll call me. And honestly, if they don’t, my feelings probably will be hurt because I felt I was a part of something special. ”

His quote to MLB's Maria Guardado:

"“I've kind of hopped around the last couple of years. I felt like I made some good relationships and then had to leave. I just know what I'm getting myself into, know what to expect. I talked from day one just about how great everybody treated me and my family here. That definitely was part of it, but I’ve really enjoyed my time here so far. I really liked all my teammates. "

He mentioned, on video, in an October 3rd Tweet from @NBCSGiants that he "grew up a Giants fan. "

But yes, please continue on how I was one year off on my contract prediction.

But hey, how'd that Joey Wendle for Craig Kimbrel trade go for the White Sox?


8.) 01 Dec 2021 19:47:34
So if you're keeping track at home, we have:

Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) .

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Wendle and Kiermaier.

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura (a trade literally mocked by a guy from MLB. com)

We have: Kevin Gausman to the White Sox.

We have: Dallas Keuchel for Jackie Bradley Jr.

And my woes were that I suggested the Giants don't offer more than a 4-year deal to Gausman.

More for the record:

"Although, 76 wins is a good current 2021 projection for Zaidi's Giants. So he may be right on track for a playoff berth in 2027."

You were only SIX SEASONS OFF, my guy. Jesus, what a take that was.

For someone with your history of being so laughably off on this kind of stuff, you sure do have a puffed up head.

But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here.


9.) 01 Dec 2021 21:26:09
You're trashing my offseason plan because the predictions haven't hit (not meant to be predictions btw, simply the path I would've pursued), yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO.

"Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) "

This was not in my offseason plan. This was a far-fetched idea that I brought up. 3-team deals with that many players hardly ever happen.

"But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here. "

It's not that you missed on one player - all of us will predict more wrong than we do right. However, it was you believing that I was crazy for proposing Gausman playing somewhere other than SF and for offering him 5 for $120 million (he signed for 5 for $110 million for the record; a lot closer than 4 for $84 million)

It may be time to switch over to your David Stearns account full time.


10.) 02 Dec 2021 00:15:13
I never once said you were "crazy. " My exact quote:

:Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on. "

I feel that's a pretty generous, healthy and contributive comment, don't you?

I also said, "It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse. "

Once again, I open the door to me being willing to be wrong.

Going along with a player's very word that he wants to return to the Giants seems like a pretty solid reason to predict he returns.

It's actually based in reality. Turns out, the interest from the Giants wasn't to Gausman's liking.

I never even remotely hinted that you were crazy. You're just looking for a win now LMAO. And I get it, with how hysterically bad your other ideas were, I'd be desperate too.

Maybe it's time you create a new account and forget the "Chi Sox" account ever existed.


11.) 02 Dec 2021 00:22:33
"yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO. "

So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint?

Also, for your ideas being, by your own account, "far fetched", you sure get a bit testy when people challenge it, don't you? Even you acknowledge the truth (which is rare, but we'll take what we can get), and yet, you can't handle when others disagree. Not that I'm surprised, but it'd be nice to see *SOME* improvement over the years.

Also, your super intelligent "Kimbrel for Segura" trade just got shot in the foot by Dave Dombrowski LMAO.


12.) 02 Dec 2021 03:27:21
Did he actually reference Kimbrel or are you talking about him saying they're "not necessarily looking for a closer at this point"?

I think the Phillies have a really solid team - one that could easily win a division in 2022 if they make a few improvements. They need a shortstop badly and their pen is quite obviously a glaring hole. They also lost Neris who'd pretty damn good in his own right. While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer.

Adding Kimbrel (even if it was for Segura) and let's say, Story, Rosario and a CF via trade makes them a lot more interesting.

"So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint? "

No, you missed on Gausman, Bundy, Verlander, and Neris too. They could still get Suzuki I guess, but I really think he'll be a Mariner. The Yarbrough trade is also theoretically still in play.


13.) 02 Dec 2021 13:53:50
"While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer. "

Yes, the Phillies should be unhappy with a closer who had a 2.45 ERA in 25 IP with the Dodgers in 2021. What they should really be looking for is to pay 160% more than Knebel for a guy who had a 5.09 ERA in 23 IP with the White Sox!

And they should give up their best middle infielder, which is also a glaring need, to acquire him!

I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero.

I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him.

Hahn would have been wiser to buy out his option and use the savings (15M) to just acquire a 2B via free agency. And if he really wanted to keep Kimbrel, I'm pretty sure he could have had him for a lot cheaper.

But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it.


14.) 02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.


15.) 02 Dec 2021 15:34:14
"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

Lol, going from "absolutely not"

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something"

to "well maybe"!

Also, let me know when we're going to stop grading relievers with ERA over 25 inning samples. Knebel, who has thrown 39 innings over the last 3 seasons, just got $10 million. But Kimbrel's lack of recent consistent track record kills his trade value? GTFOH. Kimbrel is a better pitcher and was never playing 2022 for much cheaper than $15 million.

Second base is not a glaring need for Philly, it's short. They have three guys that can play second for most of 2022.

"I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero. "

His 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021. Please though, tell me more about the reliability of ERA, especially over tiny samples.


16.) 02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!


17.) 03 Dec 2021 15:20:47
"Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. "

"a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons"

Bro, pick a side. Either small samples matter or they don't. If you're going to say that Kimbrel's last three months are detrimental to his outlook to the point where he is a useless baseball player, then that's just recency bias.


18.) 13 Dec 2021 13:43:58
The funny thing is: I haven't even brought up "small sample sizes" for Craig Kimbrel, or "recency bias". I brought up his LAST THREE EFFING SEASONS to you, and you're hellbent on focusing on what he did for 4 months with the Cubs. You know what we call that? Oh yeah, small sample size!

To quote you: "Bro, pick a side. "

Let's open up the past three seasons for Kimbrel, just once more for you:

2019: Absolutely terrible.
2020: Absolutely terrible.
2021 with Cubs (4 months) : Incredible.
2021 with White Sox (3 months) : Absolutely terrible.

Trust me, the last three months of 2021 fit the larger sampling WAYYYYY more than the first four.

The White Sox still paid a hefty price for Kimbrel's first half of 2021, because teams do this ALL THE TIME. They pay for small, recent samples.

You're trying to convince everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still an elite reliever ON SMALL SAMPLES all the while trying to downplay small samples.

So to recap:

If you believe that teams are looking at larger, recent samples: Craig Kimbrel is terrible.

If you believe that teams are looking at recent, small samples: Craig Kimbrel is absolutely terrible.

Craig Kimbrel used to be good in the same way Albert Pujols used to be really good. Now, they are exactly the same: washed up has-beens who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster.

The only difference is that the Dodgers simply signed Pujols to a league-minimum deal. The White Sox gave up Heuer and Madrigal for Kimbrel AND picked up his $16M option.

But here you are, thinking the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers! LOLOLOLOL.


19.) 13 Dec 2021 22:25:46
Again, his 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021.

That K-BB% was better than every single Giants reliver in the 2nd half sans Littel. Apparently every single other Giants reliever that pitched at least 20 innings was "absolutely terrible" through the second half of 2021.

Kimbrel also pitched more innings with the Cubs in 2021 than he did in 2019 and 2020 combined. You conveniently left that detail out. Nothing new, however.

"But, but, but, HIS ERA! ", screamed the boomer stuck in 1995. His .295 BABIP was 32 points higher than his career average and his 19.5% HR/ FB was more than 8% higher than his career average.

Your logic is literally the epitome of recency bias. You equating Kimbrel's value to Albert Pujols shows that you really don't know what you're talking about. Quite the downfall for know-it-all Nate this offseason. Tremendously tough scene.


20.) 15 Dec 2021 13:32:07
And Kimbrel had a .203 BABIP in the first half, 58 points lower than his career average, but we're supposed to automatically assume that this kind of deviance is acceptable, but a 38 point deviance from his career BABIP, which falls in line with his most recent 3-year average is not?

Or how about his HR/ FB%?

Hey Siri, what was Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021? "Here's your answer: Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021 was 19.1%. "

Hey, 19.2% seems strangely REALLLLLLYYYYY close to his average over the last three seasons, does it not?

But yeah, the 3.8% (a rate SIX TIMES lower than his 3-year average) is much, much more reliable! I mean, expecting us to take at wholesale value the really solid production that took place over 4 months, and not the really crappy performance that took place for 2.5 seasons isn't recency bias or anything?

No way! Clearly Craig Kimbrel is the pitcher we saw with the Cubs in 2021, not the Craig Kimbrel we saw with the Cubs in 2019, 2020, or with the White Sox in 2021. No way! What an aberration!


21.) 15 Dec 2021 21:07:54
Some other "elite pitchers" from the 90th percentile of K-BB%:

Hoby Milner, Scott Effross, Jason Adam.

And to think: the Cubs let Jason Adam walk, and the Brewers aren't even using Hoby Milner pitch in the majors.

Man, if only they knew that their K-BB ratios suddenly rendered their ERAs completely moot!


22.) 16 Dec 2021 20:26:53
"Guys, we know a much to high percent of everything Kimbrel pitches ends up in Gary, Indiana, but have you seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio? "


23.) 18 Dec 2021 15:50:56
We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important. What do you think is more sticky, K-BB% or ERA. (hint: It is 1000% the former) . If ERA is the first stat you reference to judge whether a pitcher has been successful or not, then I need to welcome you to the 21st century my man. It has quite literally zero predictive power in projecting the next season's ERA. This has been proven countless times.

Jason Adam had a .429 BABIP, Milner at .393, and Elfross was simply really good in his 14.2 innings despite be a no-namer. You pointing out these guys doesn't prove what you think it does, lol. These are solid pitchers.

You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. He literally threw more innings in 1 half of 2021 than in 2019 AND 2020 COMBINED! One can't be a small sample and the others a massive signal that he's washed. Referencing those 35 innings from 2019-2020 as "TWO WHOLE SEASONS" simply makes no sense. With that logic, his dominant 36 innings with the Cubs in 2021 would be just as good of a signal that he's an elite closer.

I know that you had a rude awakening to some advanced, yet relatively basic pitching stats (see: xFIP), so I tried to dumb it down even more to something as simple strikeouts vs. walks (i. e. the outcomes that any given pitcher has the most control of), and yet it appears that this kind of stuff is still pretty far over your head.

Good news for you though is that there's still a healthy subset of boomers who thing that ERA for pitcher evaluation still matters!


24.) 19 Dec 2021 12:34:15
"We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important"

Good grief, no, we're not. We're to the point where you're PRETENDING that a pitcher with a *checks notes* 5.09 ERA is suddenly "elite" because of a K-BB%. You're grasping at straws and trying to pretend that teams only care about K-BB% and that we should just not address ANY of the other concerning statistics?

"You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. "

I literally used small samples, then you said I couldn't do that. So I went to a larger sampling, then you said I couldn't do that either. But now, you're okay with using *some* small samples, but not others.

So when will you just come right out and tell everyone that we're not allowed to address any statistics that are negative toward the Chicago White Sox?

That's essentially where we are in this discussion. You dodge any statistic that isn't favorable and try to pretend that it's unimportant, despite you having very clearly used ERA in the past to build up your own arguments. Did you also learn from your own ineptitudes or are you continuing to blow smoke?

If we're both being honest, we know it's the latter.

Here's the FACTS:

Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2019.
Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2020.

Then, he had a woefully unsustainable first half of 2021, with a 3.8 HR/ FB% and a .203 BABIP, both major deviations from his career numbers, but also his most recent 3-season sample.

Then, the White Sox paid a COMICAL return for Craig Kimbrel, one that was mocked by people everywhere, myself included. You continued to act like I was stupid and that Kimbrel would be this elite pitcher with the White Sox and continue his dominance.

So, he goes to the White Sox, and what does he do? He performs EXACTLY how he did in 2019 and 2020.

And yet, he's elite. He's not only elite by his Cubs small sampling. He's elite by his WHITE SOX SMALL SAMPLING.

Again, just acknowledge the truth: you don't like anyone telling you that your precious White Sox and your Savior, Rick Hahn, aren't as good as you thought.

But yes, every team should be emulating picking up aging relievers coming off horrible half-seasons and giving them $16M. I'm sure this will work out really well.


25.) 19 Dec 2021 12:35:22
Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022.

Feel free to return to this in October 2022.


26.) 20 Dec 2021 14:17:33
No, you're taking your own comments out of context. You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense.

Kimbrel's 2021 in total ended up being a 2.2 fWAR season, good for 6th among relievers. If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion. He put up a replacement level second half (where his usage was completely mis-managed by La Russa) after an all-star first half to finish with a top-10 RP season. I don't think it's crazy to say that a guy coming off a season in which he struck out 42.6% of batters faced and only walked 9.8% isn't completely washed. You can't exactly fluke your way into that over 60 IP.

Maybe the Giants should trade for Craig. He'd instantly be their best RP. In fact, the White Sox have literally 5 arms in their bullpen that would be the Giants best RP in an instant, LOL.

"Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022."

I will gladly eat crow if this happens.


27.) 20 Dec 2021 16:14:21
"You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense. "

Shot.

"If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion"

Chaser.


28.) 20 Dec 2021 16:38:36
And of course, if Craig Kimbrel wasn't hilariously bad with the White Sox in 2021, and kept even a little bit within his first half numbers, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

But that awful stint with the White Sox happened. And as I've been pointing out for a while now, it fell more in line with his 2019 and 2020 numbers than the first half did.

Statistically, it's far more likely that what Craig Kimbrel did in the second half is the more likely projection going forward and that his first half was a total aberration and is largely irrelevant as we project going forward.

I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. If lightning can strike in the same place twice, he's got a chance, and it's likely why his ZiPS projections are favorable (that and the 2021 Cubs numbers will skew the algorithm) .

But if this were any other pitcher on any other team, you'd be agreeing: Craig Kimbrel is most likely the pitcher he was in the second-half going forward.

And I think most teams will see that the same way.

And for the record, there's a small chance that Craig Kimbrel *could* be the Giants best reliever should they acquire him. But that's mostly because Farhan actually takes garbage players and makes them really good players.

Craig Kimbrel is, by definition, a garbage baseball player. So maybe he can do what Rick Hahn could not: make Craig Kimbrel decent.

Here's a trade:

Giants get: Kimbrel, Cespedes
White Sox get: Dilan Rosario.

The White Sox will have to attach a pretty intriguing prospect just to clear the salary. And like that, Dilan Rosario would be the best 2B option on the White Sox, and their best prospect.


29.) 20 Dec 2021 23:01:35
Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect.

"I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. "

Don't try and walk back your "Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022" claim now, Nate. Very sly of you to cover all of your bases tho. That Steamer projection making you a little nervous?

So, if I understand correctly, Kimbrel could bounce back to be a productive reliever (maybe even a high end one like Steamer projects), but only he happens to get traded to SF, which you are now realizing may not be such a crazy idea after all.

As a side note, we also know that MLB not only banned sticky stuff mid-season, but they also literally changed the baseballs. It's not *the* reason for Kimbrel's drop off, but it could have certainly played a role.


30.) 04 Apr 2022 15:09:34
"Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect. "

Darin Ruf. Check.
Mike Yastrzemski. Check.
LaMonte Wade Jr. Check.
Donovan Solano. Check.
Thairo Estrada. Check.
Tyler Rogers. Check.
Zack Littell. Check.
Kevin Gausman. Check.
Drew Smyly. Check.
Dominic Leone. Check.

If you don't think that Zaidi could have found a way to fix Craig Kimbrel's issues, then you're being ridiculous. There's a reason pitchers are nearly busting down doors trying to play in San Francisco.


 

 

15 Nov 2021 14:21:20
Giants Offseason

(Update since Posey retired)

Non-tender Alex Dickerson & Tyler Beede.

Re-sign 1B Brandon Belt (accepts QO)- 1/18.4M
Re-sign RHP Kevin Gausman 4/84M


Sign RHP Dylan Bundy 1/6.5M
Sign RHP Justin Verlander 2/32M
Sign OF Seiya Suzuki 5/75M
Sign RHP Hector Neris 2/15M


Trade LHP Nick Swiney & 1B Garrett Frechette to Tampa Bay for LHP Ryan Yarbrough

C- Casali
1B- Belt
2B- Flores/La Stella
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
LF- Wade/Suzki
CF- Slater/Duggar
RF- Yastrzemski

Bench
C- Bart
1B/OF- Ruf
2B/3B- Flores/La Stella
OF- Wade/Suzuki
OF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation
1. Webb (R)
2. Gausman (R)
3. Verlander (R)
4. Bundy (R)
5. Yarbrough (L)

Bullpen
CP- Doval (R)
CP- McGee (L)
SU- Rogers (R)
RP- Neris (R)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- J. Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)

Estimated 2022 Payroll- $168 Million

natedog

1.) 15 Nov 2021 17:50:36
Still think Gausman at 4/ 84 represents a substantial hometown discount. He's the best pitcher on the market over 4+ seasons, by a decent margin.


2.) 15 Nov 2021 21:15:44
Possibly. And I'd agree it's a hometown discount. He's made it very clear he wants to play in San Francisco, on several occasions.


3.) 16 Nov 2021 04:36:36
I think LAA comes after Gausman hard. Arte probably signs off on 5/ 110-120 easy. Trip to OC might not be too bad for $30 million extra.


4.) 16 Nov 2021 13:38:45
It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse.

But every indication, again, is that there's mutual interest in bringing him back. I just don't know if Zaidi is ready to drop 100M+ on Gausman. I'd rather him give it to Stroman.


5.) 16 Nov 2021 14:14:56
Agree to disagree there I guess. No chance in heck I'd take Stroman over Gausman.

Reports are that LAA is going over the QO to sign Synderaard. Major desperation mode - I think one of Gausman, Stroman or Ray is going there as well.


6.) 16 Nov 2021 14:51:39
I think my greater fear is that the Giants would be paying to get second half Kevin Gausman, which is why I don't want them going more than 4 years on him.


7.) 17 Nov 2021 13:32:33
This offseason should be interesting. To date, the biggest free agent contract they've handed out under Zaidi was to Tommy La Stella. It's clear they'll blow straight through that this winter, but I remain unconvinced that they are going to start giving out 100M contracts just yet.


8.) 18 Nov 2021 14:36:42
The Steamer projections for Stroman versus Gausman show why we shouldn't trust Steamer.

Gausman 2022: 191 IP, 10.02 K/ 9, 2.54 BB/ 9, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP.
Stroman 2022: 182 IP, 7.39 K/ 9, 2.64 BB/ 9, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP.

The problem I see is that Stroman's numbers, most importantly his ERA and FIP are elevated by 50 to 100 points, respectively from his 2021 numbers, and the last time Stroman was that bad over a full season was 2016. He was hurt in 2018. They don't reflect his career numbers very well.

Gausman's projections are elevated from 2021 as well, but they fall more in line with his career numbers.

Stroman's projections are obviously hurt by a gap in the algorithm, not having any numbers to input in 2020 due to his opt out, but it's odd to me that a guy who had 3.22 and 3.02 ERA seasons over his last two (and wasn't dealing with injuries) would somehow be projected as a 4.12 ERA guy the next season.

I think both are excellent pitchers. But I'd lean toward Stroman, mostly because he has a lengthier track record of success.


9.) 18 Nov 2021 17:20:03
Stroman's GB% is dropping and his 2021 BABIP was a career-low. For a pitcher that's so quality of contact-driven, that's a cause for concern. If he goes to a less defensively-efficient team (i. e. one that doesn't have Lindor and Baez up the middle), we could see the effect. I think he's a high-3s, low-4s ERA guy into his early 30s.

Remember that Steamer is merely a formula. It's not making any subjective determinations.


10.) 22 Nov 2021 13:34:41
Except when Darin Ruf is a -0.7 WAR player next year. Then you're more than willing to accept it as a determination.


11.) 22 Nov 2021 14:30:59
It would be better for your argument on Ruf if Steamer WAS making subjective determinations. Math tells us that you're severely overrating his future outlook.


12.) 29 Nov 2021 03:17:27
Yeah, 4/ 84 for Gausman was unsurprisingly never close, lol.


13.) 01 Dec 2021 20:03:36
Did Gausman go to the White Sox for 5/ 120?

Asking for a friend.


14.) 02 Dec 2021 03:21:10
Nope, but 5/ 120 was a lot closer than 4/ 84.


15.) 02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.


 

 

29 Oct 2021 02:19:10
Giants Offseason

Pick up Posey's option
Re-sign Brandon Belt 1/18.4 (qualifying offer)
Re-sign Kevin Gausman, 4/84
Re-sign Alex Wood 2/20

Non-tender Alex Dickerson

Sign:
Noah Syndergaard, 2/20
Mark Canha, 3/45
Chris Taylor, 4/72
Hector Neris, 2/16

Trade:
Acquire RHP Elieser Hernandez from MIA for C Joey Bart

Acquire RHP Cole Sulser from BAL for RHP Manuel Mercedes and LHP Nick Swiney

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Taylor/La Stella
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
1B- Belt
DH- Ruf
LF- Canha
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
CF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation:
Webb - Gausman - Syndergaard - Wood - Hernandez

Bullpen
Doval (R) - Rogers (R) - Sulser (R) - McGee (L) - Leone (R) - Neris (R) - Alvarez (L) - J. Garcia (L)

natedog

1.) 29 Oct 2021 04:53:16
Why offer Belt the QO when you have an elite everyday 1B for ~$2.5 million already? Just banking on recouping a draft pick if he declines and signs elsewhere?!


2.) 29 Oct 2021 13:07:35
If they get the DH (which I think will happen), there's plenty of ABs to go around. Having TWO first basemen who have over 140 wRC+ is always a great problem to have.


3.) 29 Oct 2021 15:42:31
Exactly. In this scenario with the DH in the NL, it's going to fascinating to watch Ruf put up a 5 WAR season at 36 y/ o. Does he get MVP votes? Kapler will finally be able to unleash the beast from his shackles.


4.) 29 Oct 2021 17:56:18
It'll be great to see "weak side platoon player" Darin Ruf outperform Jose Abreu AGAIN. For the second year in a row.

But hey, the White Sox will pay nearly 8 times that amount to get worse production.

And therein lies the difference between the Executive of the Year and the runner-up: extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment.

But hey, I think giving up legitimately good talent for Craig Kimbrel, and giving 18M to Dallas Keuchel, 8M to Adam Eaton, and extending Jose Abreu so he can be worse than a part-time, weak-sided platoon first basemen in 200% of the plate appearances, I guess that's really good right?

I mean, at least he made sure that he never hits arbitration with any of his players! That's worthy of a Hall of Fame spot if you ask me.


5.) 29 Oct 2021 19:30:10
I commend the Giants GM for finding a superstar playing in Korea, and here you go again attacking Rick Hahn. This has to be getting personal.

Don't forget about Hahn being an abhorrent human being because of his inability to overrule his boss. Oh, and he allowed the team to compete against the Cleveland In*ians, thereby condoning their team name. Awful. That could hurt his HOF chances due to the character clause.

He also traded a generational talent for James Shields - don't sell him short.

"extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment"

Hahn has literally never done this one single time. He was granted good players from a genie who he very easily traded for highly regarded prospects. Then those new players became good in the majors based on pure luck alone. In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us.


6.) 01 Nov 2021 14:39:34
"In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us. "

I mean, the Los Angeles Dodgers are kinda the team they are because Andrew Friedman let Zaidi do what he did in Los Angeles.

That's right, one of the most talented baseball teams in MLB History is where they are because of Farhan Zaidi. So as much as you exaggerate, it's probably more true than you're comfortable with.


7.) 01 Nov 2021 15:34:19
I laugh about you mocking me for the Indians nickname. You're the only one getting your panties in a twist over it. Frankly, I don't really care. I think baseball has a lot more issues than a poorly contrived caricature of a people group.

Some of them include:

-Allowing low-character individuals to keep having jobs in baseball. Rick Hahn was literally okay with his team hiring TLR, he even praised it later on. He also reportedly really wanted A. J. Hinch, who led one of the biggest cheating scandals in baseball history.

-Taking advantage of low-income and disadvantaged minorities through pre-arbitration deals that limit those individuals' ability to make more money later on. What would Tim Anderson make through arbitration right now? More or less than 9M? (Hint: the answer is WAY, WAY more than 9M) . The White Sox knew that Anderson, Moncada, and Jimenez would get way more expensive for them down the road, so they took advantage of them and offered them upfront money knowing those players had next to no leverage to turn down those offers. It's interesting how they didn't do this with Lucas Giolito or Andrew Vaughn. Could it be that those guys come from upper-class households and thus had leverage in turning down deals? No way. That could never be the case.

Now, I'm not suggesting that the White Sox are the only team doing this. I would never. But according to you, they "revolutionized" it.

Once again, look through the players that have historically sign these deals. Other than ones with high-variance and low-expectations (i. e. Scott Kingery, Evan White), the over-whelming majority are non-white players or players from lower economic environments.

I don't think that's merely coincidental. And before you say it, yes, the Giants have their history with doing this, although they have typically reserved this practice for pitchers (i. e. Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum), and they haven't done it for several seasons now.

To the White Sox, this is what Hahn gets praised for: taking advantage of zero-leverage players.

But yes, let's cover our eyes and think that a team's nickname is the big problem!


8.) 02 Nov 2021 04:51:44
Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. This scandal will be greater than the Astros.

Guys like Moncada and Robert were obviously struggling after the respective $32 million and $26 million signing bonuses they got out of Cuba were running out. Hahn clearly took advantage. I suppose maybe in snooty San Francisco those would be considered low socioeconomic incomes, but otherwise I think those guys were able to narrowly get by pre-extensions. Luis Robert’s new Naruto-wrapped Lamborghini Aventor is a good signal of that, I’d say. Poor guys.

I guess Hahn’s moral compass is much worse than yours when your alternative is to pay the organization’s minority players the least amount possible for as long as possible.

Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? I guess the Giants said thanks to their rivals for giving them the most influential executive in baseball history by losing to them when it counted. That was nice.


9.) 05 Nov 2021 13:14:38
"Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? "

He didn't. But reportedly, he received a nice gift from Andrew Friedman as a recognition of what he helped build. No indication of what that was. To be clear, Zaidi has taken teams he runs to more World Series than Rick Hahn EVER will. 2017 and 2018, he was there. 2020, just 2 seasons removed, the Dodgers were back.

Again, this is more than Ol' Ricky can say.


10.) 05 Nov 2021 13:32:57
"Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. "

Yeah, maybe refrain from mocking Charles Johnson and his stupid donations when you yourself don't understand the nature of systemic racism that is rampant in the game, especially through pre-arb deals.

The idea that "they aren't hurting" is so hilariously off that you can't possibly think you're being serious.

If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time.

The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. They knew those guys couldn't afford the risk of going year-to-year in arbitration and possibly facing non-tender if they tank. So they offered money way, way lower than the projected value to those players, knowing they'd accept.

Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here?

The White Sox are literally taking minority, low-economic class players and limiting their earning potential through pre-arb deals that are 100% to the benefit of the team, long term. They do this, again, knowing that the players have no leverage to turn it down.

They are willingly and actively manipulating and limiting the earning potential of minority players. In fact, it's almost a sure bet that if the White Sox have a young, talented minority baseball star, they'll sign them to one of these deals.

And I fully expect them to do the same with Cespedes and Oscar Colas.

They LOVE manipulating the earning power of minority players. It's just what they do.


11.) 05 Nov 2021 13:37:24
That nice gift was an early trip to Cabo while the Dodgers went to the NLCS.


12.) 05 Nov 2021 16:05:40
What did TLR do to celebrate his one playoff win? My guess: probably did a bunch of Jaegerbombs and drove Robert's Lambo all across the greater Chicago area.

It's just what he does.


13.) 05 Nov 2021 17:51:09
Joking about DUI? Ahhhh.


14.) 07 Nov 2021 12:08:56
I mean, which would you rather see: someone joking about a guy getting multiple DUIs, or someone willingly hiring a guy with multiple DUIs.

You have a hard time seeing the forest for the trees, so I'm not surprised by you feigning some level of disgust here.

The White Sox just comically overpaid for another under-performing white guy, and they won't pay minorities even close to their value in arbitration. They also knowingly and willing hired Tony La Russa.

Maybe point your anger that way.


15.) 08 Nov 2021 10:51:15
The Giants better not sign a single white player this season. Seeing that most and their good players are already white, you have to question whether their intentions. Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear?


16.) 08 Nov 2021 14:00:16
LOL. Are you being intentionally obtuse, or is this something that comes naturally for you? I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here, but you're making me lose faith.

If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game, I really don't know if I can help you. And you should probably stop trying to move this to Charles Johnson, who literally HAS NOT MADE A SINGLE DIRECTIVE TO THE GIANTS IN OVER A DECADE. Greg Johnson made it explicitly clear that Charles Johnson just acts as principal owner and hasn't been in a board meeting in years. His voice is worthless to the Giants.

Even Zaidi and many within the Giants front office spoke up in regards to Johnson's questionable campaign donations. Zaidi then assured that he's not heard a directive from Charles since he started, and Bobby Evans confirmed the same thing.

Unlike Jerry Reinsdorf, who willingly hired a horrible human being and his entire front office just went along with it.

The Giants will likely sign white players. They'll probably sign minority players. They just picked up Jay Jackson's 2022 option, despite them not exactly needing him in 2022, if you want just one example.

This isn't to say that the Giants don't have their own set of issues, but they've also acknowledged it and publicly stated their desire to get better and work against their own prejudices.

Meanwhile, Rick Hahn just overpaid Craig Kimbrel by 100-200% of his actual value, but desperately seeks to underpay his own minority players. There's not a single public statement made from him about systemic racism. Not one.

He's one of just three GMs/ PBOs who haven't made a statement of anything across the game. And his own personnel decisions when it comes to which players they acquire, play, and for how much, make it evidently clear why that's the case.


17.) 08 Nov 2021 14:22:05
"Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear? "

Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach?

Man, his directive was heard loud and clear by the organization. They clearly don't employ any minorities!

Seriously, you sound ridiculous.

But as they say, a hit dog will holler. And you are definitely hollering right now.


18.) 10 Nov 2021 04:40:43
“ If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game”

This will remain the most idiotic take on this site for a long, long time. You are literally arguing for the alternative which guarantees that players are paid the league minimum for the first 3 season followed by 3 seasons where they are paid a % of their marginal revenue product. The club assumes ZERO risk from year to year.

The players have all the power in the world to turn down these massive extensions no matter their race, because at worst, they’re paid a league minimum value that is more than 88% of American households make. They can still get plenty of food on the table. Usually, players in the position to accept these deals are well on their way to making millions of dollars through their arb years. They don’t need the extension to become millionaires.

People inherently don’t want their compensation to vary from year to year based on performance, it’s why the compensation smoothing phenomenon is real. These deals greatly benefit both sides at the moment they are signed, but this should be obvious because THAT’S WHY THEY’RE MUTUALLY AGREED UPON IN THE FIRST PLACE. Some work out great for the players and some work out great for their teams.

“Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach? ”

LOL! This is the Giants version of, “I have a black friend, I can’t be racist. ”

Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team?


19.) 06 Nov 2021 14:26:03
"The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. "

Again, Moncada and Robert had humungous signing bonuses in their back pockets. They had all of the leverage in the world. The White Sox guaranteed Tim Anderson $25 million after 398 games of an 86 wRC+. He wasn't considering if he was ever going to be worth $100 million+ at the time, he was trying to survive in the league and the Sox guaranteed him life changing money. He'll end up making $52 million from the contract. How obtuse and out of touch can you be?

Since TA's extension he's hit .322/ .349/ .495 with a 127 wRC+ and is one of the faces of baseball. It's not racism, lmao, it's a smart investment. If Anderson was confident enough in himself that he'd ascend to stardom like this, he could simply turn it down and still make more than 99% of Americans do over the course of 6 years. He also got a $2.2 million signing bonus out of a junior college, so he would have been a very wealthy human being either way.

"If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time. "

What? the $100 million is not guaranteed. You could could play terribly and get non-tendered or sustain a career-altering injury and walk away only having made 1-3 years of league minimum. Both sides are taking a risk with a pre-arb extension. If it was as easy as choosing $100 million or $50 million, there would never be a contract extension. But it's not that simple. Players in general would rather have their contracts be guaranteed year to year rather than it being based on their performance even if means sacrificing some total dollars. It's called compensation smoothing.

Don't mention Chris Sale or Aaron Bummer tho and their pre-arb extensions with the White Sox. They don't fit your convoluted narrative so they don't count in this instance.

The Braves did the same thing with Albies and Acuna, is their FO racist too? How about the Brewers with Freddy Peralta? Yankees and Aaron Hicks? Cleveland and Jose Ramirez? Cardinals and Carlos Martinez? Philly and Odubel Herrera?

Boston tried to extend Mookie Betts tried numerous times but he bet on himself and it paid off. All of the player listed above, including the Sox players could have done the exact same thing.

So now if any club signs a minority player to an extension, they are racist. And again, your alternative is to pay them the league minimum for as long as possible before only giving them a percentage of their market value through arbitration. Which option is manipulating earning power again?

"Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here? "

They are trying to extend all three, but none of them are as wealthy as Robert or Moncada were before they signed their extensions. But again, you're advocating that the team guarantee the white players more money. You're shooting your own argument in the foot.

This is a terribly embarrassing argument by you. How you continue to get worse is beyond me, and everyone else on this site.


20.) 14 Nov 2021 19:36:47
"Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team? "

Once again, a hit dog sure does holler. Your desperate attempts to hide the systemic racism that is RAMPANT in the White Sox front office, as well as the incredibly low moral character of their executives. I'd probably try and use a lot of words to try and defend it as well, especially if I knew how horrendous they truly were.

Seriously, I'm beginning to think your character is that of TLR's with these defenses.

I kind of feel bad for you.


21.) 15 Nov 2021 13:31:39
You're saying that I'm hiding the theoretical systematic racism in the contract extension market (a tremendous stretch at that, and you still have yet to address my rebuttal of the alternative to an extension for these minority players), yet your team's blatantly racist owner is off the hook because "oh, he's not really involved".

It's very convenient for you.

You're not looking for a discussion, you're looking to point the racism finger, which is usually reserved for someone who lacks other defendable arguments.

TBH, an argument that the current CBA contractual control structure is "racist" would have been better than the contract extension market where both sides literally have to agree.


22.) 17 Nov 2021 16:34:44
LOL. Yes, we're talking about the DECISION MAKERS in these cases.

Charles Johnson doesn't make any decisions for Giants personnel issues. Rick Hahn and apparently, Jerry Reinsdorf do.

Charles Johnson doesn't get a pass for being a grimy creep, but when we're talking about racism as it pertains to a ballclub, you might be able to deduce that a non-involved owner shouldn't be considered, don't you think?

Again, your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit.

You're supporting a racist team who also doesn't care that their manager is a drunk and risked people's lives. Maybe focus on that before trying to throw complete non-sequiturs into the fold.


23.) 18 Nov 2021 14:49:57
Ok Nate, we can just pretend that the Giants' largest shareholder makes absolutely zero decisions regarding what the organization does. That totally makes sense. I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making?

It's just one big racist family business out in San Fran.

Surely they have a saint of a CEO, right? Nope. Larry Baer gets physical with his wife on occasion, but soon Nate will tell us that he also doesn't have anything to do with the team's operations or decision-making.

What was that you said? "your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit. "

The irony, LMAO.

Maybe I should start making the argument that TLR doesn't actually make any of the calls from the dugout, that it's Miguel Cairo and Tony is just there for show. That way he's off the hook!


24.) 01 Dec 2021 19:33:30
" I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making? "

He has, on MULTIPLE OCCASIONS, made it known that he doesn't hold any of the same political views as his father. We've been over this. And when Charles was making those donations, it was pointed out that he is merely a silent partner, who continues to just rake in the money. Nothing more. He literally hasn't been a part of the board meetings, whose minutes are publicly available, in years.

As for Larry Baer, he served a several month, unpaid suspension for his actions. He has sought the help he needs, and been very forthright, publicly, about his short-comings.

Did Tony La Russa even get a punishment from his own team? Nope. They tried to HIDE THE INFORMATION and pretend like they didn't know. They paraded him like he was this excellent manager.

Do you need reminded that their second choice was a guy CAUGHT IN ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHEATING SCANDALS IN BASEBALL HISTORY?

The White Sox couldn't wait to hire a piece of _____ as their team's manager. Hahn had his choice. Jerry had his.

Turns out, the drunk driver got picked over the cheater. But yes, that's so much better than a silent partner.


 

 

 

natedog's talk posts with other poster's replies to natedog's talk posts

 

07 Apr 2022 14:09:47
Updated 2022 Predictions

AL East
Toronto 98-64
New York 92-70
Boston- 82-80
Tampa Bay- 81-81
Baltimore- 59-103

AL Central
Chicago- 95-67
Minnesota- 84-78
Cleveland- 76-86
Detroit- 76-86
Kansas City- 64-98

AL West
Houston- 99-63
Seattle- 92-70
Los Angeles- 89-73
Texas- 74-88
Oakland- 60-102

NL East
Atlanta 95-67
Philadelphia 86-76
New York 84-78
Miami 81-81
Washington 65-97

NL Central
Milwaukee 96-66
St. Louis 90-72
Chicago 79-83
Cincinnati 66-96
Pittsburgh 65-97

NL West
Los Angeles 99-63
San Francisco 90-72
San Diego 89-73
Colorado 65-97
Arizona 59-103

Playoffs:
AL Wild Card
(6) Los Angeles vs. (3) Chicago. LAA wins 2-1
(5) Seattle vs. (4) New York. NYY wins 2-1

NL Wild Card
(6) San Diego vs. (3) Atlanta. ATL wins 2-0.
(5) St. Louis vs. (4) San Francisco. SFG wins 2-1.

AL Divisional Series
(6) Los Angeles vs. (2) Toronto. TOR wins 4-1.
(4) New York vs. (1) Houston. HOU wins 4-0.

NL Divisional Series
(3) Atlanta vs. (2) Milwaukee. MIL wins 4-2.
(4) San Francisco vs. (1) Los Angeles. LAD wins 4-3.

AL Championship Series
(2) Toronto vs. (1) Houston. HOU wins 4-2.

NL Championship Series
(2) Milwaukee vs. (1) Los Angeles. MIL wins 4-3.

World Series
Houston vs. Milwaukee. MIL wins 4-1.

Awards
AL MVP: Luis Robert, CHW
NL MVP Mookie Betts, LAD

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, NYY
NL Cy Young: Max Fried, ATL

AL ROY: Julio Rodriguez, SEA
NL ROY: Bryson Stott, PHI

natedog

 

 

04 Apr 2022 13:02:39
RIP to the White Sox giving up a "Top 5 RP" and future Hall of Famer for AJ Pollock, losing Lance Lynn and Garrett Crochet, all in the same day.

Can someone do a wellness check on Chi Sox? I just don't want him to become Tony La Russa or Michael Kopech all of a sudden.

natedog

1.) 05 Apr 2022 18:13:09
Gotta give Hahn credit for netting a guy coming off a 137 wRC+ season for a "completely washed" (according to you) RP like Kimbrel.

But let me guess, Kimbrel is good now? One of the top orgs in baseball just dealt for him. The Sox ate none of his contract and saved $ in the process.

Masterclass.

Glad you're still constantly thinking about me, Nathan.


2.) 05 Apr 2022 18:31:45
"The White Sox will have to attach a pretty intriguing prospect just to clear the salary. "

"The White Sox gave up Heuer and Madrigal for Kimbrel AND picked up his $16M option. But here you are, thinking the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers! LOLOLOLOL. "

"If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention. "

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it. "

"Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys. "

Safe to say these all aged pretty poorly for ole Natedog. Like clockwork.


3.) 06 Apr 2022 14:06:16
I was just making sure that you didn't quit this site like Michael Kopech quit 2020. So I'm glad you're okay.

And for what it's worth, the White Sox, impressively, won that trade. If Pollock can stay healthy (that's a big IF) getting him while unloading Craig Kimbrel, who gave up 7 runs to AAA players in Spring, will look really good.

Sure, it puts Kyle Crick in the Sox's bullpen instead of Kimbrel, but then again, I think that's probably a wash.

In the meantime, enjoy running on the gloating tour. It might be the only positive experience of your baseball season. The fun will likely end when Darin Ruf has a better season than Jose Abreu for a second season in a row.


4.) 06 Apr 2022 15:50:21
While we're at it, I LOL'd today looking back at your lengthy predictions. 8 for 84, a solid 9.5%.

Meanwhile, I got 12 just in the top 50 alone and sit proudly in MLBTR's top 25.

Or do you want me to bring up the trade where the D'Backs get Justin Upton and his 28M salary while the White Sox shed Keuchel's salary AND get Ketel Marte?

Good news for the Diamondbacks: they can just get their mans without giving up Marte!

You seem to gloat here, but you ignore how hilariously terrible some of the trades you've made on here were. And to think, you spent MULTIPLE comments defending that awful idea.

Also, if we want to talk about things that aged well, can your infamous "the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers" take count here? I think it absolutely should.

Or what about the fact that the Giants were 5-6 years away from contention (they led the league in wins last season, and had 103 pythagorean wins, but you don't need reminded of this)? Or where you said Zaidi would be lucky to accomplish 75% of what Hahn has done.

In just three years, the Giants have more wins than the "on-par-with-the-Dodgers" White Sox. Yes, the team 5-6 years away from contention has more wins during Zaidi's tenure, a rebuilding club, than the Chi Sox-proclaimed "preeminent AL club. "

He's done this while bringing up exactly one top prospect: Logan Webb. He'll add another with Joey Bart, and the young players will just keep coming.

Yes, he won 13 more games in 3 seasons than Rick Hahn's Dodgers, ahem, White Sox, with a lineup containing Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Darin Ruf, Donovan Solano, and finding nobodies like Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade, Jr.

In just 3 years into his tenure, Farhan Zaidi has the Giants contending for WS titles and his most expensive FA signing was Carlos Rodon on a 2-year deal.

But please, remind me of your take about Zaidi? For good measure, I'll help you out: The Giants are multiple years away from contention.

How'd that prediction go? It went poorly. It was the worst-aged prediction I've seen on this here website. And the bar was pretty high, especially out of the content you have graced us with.


5.) 06 Apr 2022 16:34:43
You were just as high on the 2021 Giants as I was, Nathan. This is not a victory lap for you, bud.

I already conceded that I underestimated how quickly they could turn around their team. No one expected them to get career years from their entire team last year.

We'll see if they can do that again, but it's a very good org top to bottom.

Also, if Crick and Velasquez were signed by SF, you'd be telling me to stay tuned for their breakout. Crick gave up 1 hit and 2 walks in 7 innings this spring. They're low risk dart throws with high upside, and you're acting like it's a bad thing?

Finally, I, for one, am extremely excited for Dain Ruf's 2022 MVP campaign to commence now that he should see more regular ABs in 2022.


6.) 07 Apr 2022 13:05:11
"You were just as high on the 2021 Giants as I was, Nathan. This is not a victory lap for you, bud. "

Not that I expect you to own up to the most impressively inaccurate take this website has ever seen, but maybe at least don't acknowledge the point if you refuse to own it?

We're not talking our predictions on the '21 Giants. We're talking about your level of confidence regarding the Giants. That they were a half-decade from contending. That they'd be lucky to accomplish 75% of what Rick Hahn has done (never mind them exceeding it already) .

Just acknowledge how hilariously bad your take on the Giants was. It's really simple.


7.) 07 Apr 2022 15:21:10
Surely they won a playoff series last season with how much better they've done.


8.) 07 Apr 2022 17:21:03
Yes, because Rick Hahn's White Sox teams have done so well in that department.

Let that sink in: the guy whose success Farhan would be lucky to accomplish even 75% of hasn't made it once out of the first round, despite being the GM everyone is clearly trying to emulate.

And ironically, in 3 years, Farhan has matched Rick Hahn's career playoff win totals. Absolutely remarkable how that works.


9.) 08 Apr 2022 00:10:31
I said: "I already conceded that I underestimated how quickly they could turn around their team. "

Then you said "Just acknowledge how hilariously bad your take on the Giants was. "

Make it make sense

Zaidi still hasn't built a sustainable roster in SF yet however. He has to prove that last year wasn't a flash in the pan. They replaced Posey with Bart and Bryant with Pederson. Not great for the lineup.

Belt, Crawford and Longoria may not have career years again. It's actually extremely likely that they don't. They really don't have a single game changing hitter in their lineup (No, Darin Ruf doesn't count) . They have ONE hitter projected to have a wRC+ over 110 (Belt) . This is tied with the Dbacks, Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, A's (LOL, great company) for the 2nd worst in baseball (only the Tigers have zero) . For reference, the White Sox and Blue Jays have 6 and the Dodgers have 7. No one else is higher than 5. We're talking about two massively different tiers here based on the best projections available. The Giants could legitimately have one hitter slug over .450.

And before you ho-hum projections in general, it's literally math my man. No need to get upset.

Their biggest FA signing has only pitched 173 innings over the last THREE seasons with a history of recurring shoulder and elbow issues. Acting like Zaidi has the same kind of roster as Hahn in Chicago is laughable. Zaidi deserves credit for piecing together last year's masterpiece, but acting like they are going to stroll to 90 wins again isn't wise IMO, but we're allowed to give him the benefit of the doubt after last year.


10.) 18 Apr 2022 15:15:56
"And before you ho-hum projections in general, it's literally math my man. No need to get upset. "

No, it's theory. And considering the projections were wrong at nearly every projection for the Giants in 2021, maybe they aren't as accurate as you're suggesting?

I mean, ZiPS was off by 30+ wins. They were 2.0 or more WAR UNDER on Crawford, Posey, Ruf, Webb, Gausman, DeSclafani, and Duggar and 1.5 WAR UNDER on Wade and Belt. That's 9 players. The next team to have that many misses for ZiPS was 5, and it was the Brewers.

For what it's worth, just two (2) players had projections 1.0 WAR or more OVER their actual performance: Yastrzemski and Dubon. That's also the lowest amount of any team last year.

So excuse me when I look at ZiPS projections and see the same make similar ZiPS projections two seasons in a row on the same players. But surely, ZiPS is gospel truth that can't be disputed, now can it?

Surely they weren't so historically off that Dan Szymborski should be laughed out of any room he walks into, right?

MLB front offices are clearly rejecting these projection systems, and it's evidenced by how they are spending their money and the roster decisions they are making. Maybe it's time that fans do as well?


11.) 18 Apr 2022 16:04:02
"They have ONE hitter projected to have a wRC+ over 110"

Ahh yes. The team that had EIGHT (8) from last year and brought back 6 of those players, they'll have just TWO in 2022?

Seriously, do you even bother looking up anything before you type it, or do you just run with it because it sounds good? And if you still, after all these years, think that ZiPS is a remotely decent projection system, especially after they were so historically off in 2021 for one team in particular that it was almost contemptuous, I really don't have much belief you'll continue to operate in good faith in these discussions.

No front office in baseball is even the slightest bit focused on ZiPS or any of the publicly available projection systems. In fact, I'd contend, simply by the way they operate, that teams have written off Szymborski's system altogether.


12.) 21 Apr 2022 06:15:43
Could you show me where I said I was referencing ZiPS?


 

 

16 Mar 2022 02:23:19
Projected MLB Standings:

AL East
Toronto- 93-69
Tampa Bay- 89-73
New York- 87-75
Boston- 81-81
Baltimore- 60-102

AL Central
Chicago- 90-72
Cleveland- 82-80
Detroit- 79-83
Minnesota- 75-87
Kansas City- 72-90

AL West
Houston- 92-70
Seattle 89-73
Los Angeles- 88-74
Texs- 77-85
Oakland- 61-101

NL East
New York- 94-68
Atlanta- 87-75
Philadelphia- 79-83
Miami- 75-87
Washington- 70-92

NL Central
St. Louis- 97-65
Milwaukee- 93-69
Chicago- 77-85
Cincinnati- 70-92
Pittsburgh- 58-104

NL West
Los Angeles- 99-63
San Francisco- 90-72
San Diego- 84-78
Colorado-74-88
Arizona- 68-94

natedog

 

 

18 Oct 2021 14:34:27
Now that both the Giants and White Sox seasons are done, let's do a recap as to where we're at.

After 3 seasons (when Zaidi started and when, supposedly, we're limited to counting Rick Hahn's success), here's where the teams stand:

White Sox: 200-183, 2 playoff wins, 1 division title.
Giants: 213-171, 2 playoff wins, 1 division title.

This, mind you, is a Giants team that had the 106-win Dodgers in their division, and a White Sox team that had legitimately zero other .500 teams in their division.

And to remind you of your own assessment: the Giants were 3-5 years away, and the White Sox were on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

To be honest, Chi Sox, you might be better off deleting this site from your browsing history. It's hilarious how frequently you've proven yourself wrong over the past 18 months or so.

Maybe go learn how microwaves are made, because baseball hot takes aren't your thing.

natedog

1.) 19 Oct 2021 14:43:30
Finally, Chi Sox, there are seriously excellent odds that Farhan Zaidi will be the Executive of the Year, along with Kapler being NL Manager of the Year.

And just so you're clear: they did next to nothing to emulate Rick Hahn or try and match what he did. NOTHING.

And thank goodness he didn't. Otherwise, he would have dropped 8M on Adam Eaton and spinelessly let his owner hire a manager for him.

Maybe Rick Hahn can emulate Farhan Zaidi. After all, his core is only going to get older and he has legitimately baseball's worst farm system. He might need a few pointers. If he's lucky, maybe his team will even win 100+ games in a season for the first time in over 100 years.


2.) 20 Oct 2021 00:06:38
I can admit that I didn't see the Giants winning 107 games with career resurgences from Posey, Longoria and Crawford. Give cresit where credit is due. But then again, you didn't see this coming. We both projected them as third place finishers, as did 99% of baseball fans.

The whole organization deserves a ton of credit for doing what they did. Kapler deserves manager of the year and Zaidi deserves executive.

But as I figured, when you're throwing out someone like Camilo Doval, who was pitching in high-A just 50 innings prior, with your season on the line against the Dodgers in the postseason, it most likely isn't going to end well. There pen wasn't their ultimate issue in that series (they didn't hit enough), but it was at the end of game 5.

If the Sox had some competition from at least one other team in their division to keep that marginal value of a win on a daily basis higher than it was, they probably would have won more than the shameful 93 that they did. It would've also helped had they not had the most WAR lost from injuries in the major leagues. They otherwise probably would have been closer to 100. But again, when you effectively clinch in July, you rest guys, skip starts, etc.

You probably will see a lot of teams emulate the Giants this offseason tbh. Zaidi has turned them into one of the best orgs in baseball. Still, my point about Zaidi building a core like Hahn did still stands. Crawford, Posey, Belt, Longoria, Yaz etc. will be gone sooner rather than later. They are going to have the monetary resources to spend expeditiously in the coming offseason, but that almost always how teams SUPPLEMENT their young cores and then find success. Trying to do it the other way around is a lot more difficult.

I'll be very interested to see how they handle their flexibility.


3.) 20 Oct 2021 15:00:58
"when you're throwing out someone like Camilo Doval, who was pitching in high-A just 50 innings prior, with your season on the line against the Dodgers in the postseason"

Tell me you watched ZERO Giants games without telling me you watched ZERO Giants games. It's okay, you've shown your incompetence time and time again. I expect this from you. From his addition back onto the 26-Man roster, Camilo Doval gave up exactly one run, against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. 16.1 IP, 22 Ks, 1 ER since September 1st. He WAS the guy for the Giants, and he was dominant. I suspect he'll be a crucial part of the Giants bullpen for a long time.

"But then again, you didn't see this coming. We both projected them as third place finishers, as did 99% of baseball fans. "

Right, but I also didn't stupidly suggest that Zaidi would be contending by 2027, or that the Giants were soooo far away. There's a big difference there.

"my point about Zaidi building a core like Hahn did still stands. "

And my point about Rick Hahn doing NOTHING revolutionary still stands. He didn't "revolutionize" the pre-arb deal. He didn't revolutionize the idea of trading good veterans for good prospects. He's done nothing that anyone is trying to emulate. In fact, his team had absolutely zero depth. None. He was so spineless that his owner wouldn't listen to his input on who the manager should be. So therein lay two serious reasons why Rick Hahn's teams CONTINUE their failure to launch.

But yeah, I'm sure Farhan Zaidi is desperate to emulate a GM (not a president of baseball ops, but an inferior role) who has an abundance of young talent and just finished 14 games behind his team where the average age of starters was over 30-years-old.

My prediction: Rick Hahn emulates Farhan Zaidi, by trying to find undervalued veterans with specific skillsets to help build cheap, but meaningful depth to his team.

That's right, it stands to reason that Rick Hahn will be the emulator.

"Crawford, Posey, Belt, Longoria, Yaz etc. will be gone sooner rather than later. "

I mean, it's not like the Giants don't have Luciano, Ramos, Matos, Bart, Bishop, Toribio, etc. And even if you don't think they'll be good, keep in mind, if the Giants can turn LaMonte Wade, Jr. (who they acquired for the thrice DFA'd Shaun Anderson) into a 117 wRC+ hitter, you'd be silly to think that they can't do it with damn-near anyone.

The Giants will be a very good team for the foreseeable future. The White Sox? We'll see.


4.) 20 Oct 2021 15:23:23
The Giants will likely do what they did the past two seasons: find good value 1-year contracts. Think Noah Syndergaard or Andrew Heaney types. They'll do the same with a few position players. I'd imagine they flex their spending muscles with a pitcher and probably go after Kris Bryant, but even that accounts for the organization: the Giants don't have a lock-down 3B prospect out there. And they need a lot of starting pitching.

But they also have intriguing options for pitching: Hjelle, Beck, Frisbee, Plassmeyer, Dabovich, Corry, Ragsdale. And even guys who made appearances in 2021: Santos, Kervin Castro, Sam Long, etc.

The Giants gameplan is, and has been, to win games in the in-between. And they just did, to the tune of MLB's best record. They had to add DeSclafani, Wood, and re-sign Gausman last winter. They have 4 open SP spots instead of 3 this time around, but more options internally.

And the thing is, Austin, the Giants also aren't unwilling to spend money. So they can do whatever they foreseeably wish to do. Seeing what Farhan Zaidi did with this rag-tag roster, I'm not the least bit worried about the future.

They've got a huge group of young, intriguing players for 2022, and a comical depth of riches financially. And yet, their best offseason acquisition will probably be some 48 wRC+ outfielder who they turn into a star.


5.) 20 Oct 2021 20:58:28
The fact that he was THE guy for the Giants in their biggest game of the year simply because of a good 16-inning stretch is my point. He was their best option when the Dodgers had Treinen, Jansen and Scherzer. Again, Doval's NOT why they lost that series or even that game necessarily, but he's a big reason why they got outplayed at the end of that game.

The Sox had the most WAR lost from injuries in the entire league in 2021, still won 93 games, and yet they have no depth? I'm not sure I follow. Their farm system is objectively weak, yes, but their depth propelled them in 2021. How did your saying go? "Tell me you didn't watch the White Sox without telling me you didn't watch the White Sox. "

But for you, you might even be able to extend that to - "Tell me you don't know baseball without telling me you don't know baseball. "

Also, do me a favor and stop slightly changing the context of my words in your replies, it's very tiresome and childish. Just like I never guaranteed that Cesar Hernandez would be better than Trevor Story like you insinuated, I never said that Hahn revolutionized the GM position, lmao. I simply said that he's done a pretty damn good job. Slow down, read, and fully comprehend hat you're reading. It goes a long way as you attempt to make sound, coherent arguments.

Hahn didn't revolutionize the pre-arb deal, he just started doing it a lot more than every other team and they've all worked out really well so far. If Zaidi is smart, he'll look to extend one or more of their top prospects at an opportune time like Hahn did. Likewise, Hahn and every other GM will likely take a page out of the Giants book in 2022. That's no secret. Again, what he was able to do in 2021 was tremendously impressive and no one is arguing against that.


Also, let's look at the facts here:

Do the White Sox have a young, affordable, major league performant core currently? Yes.
Do the Giants have a young, affordable, major league performant core currently? No.
Do the Giants have a good looking farm system that COULD turn into a young affordable core? Yes.
Therefore, is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what Rick Hahn did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core? Precisely.

I don't blame you for being confident in the Giants ability to turn the group you mentioned into a solid core, but to say something like "no one is trying to emulate Hahn" is just objectively wrong. Every team is desperately trying to build a good young core - that's the first big step usually. The Sox haven't supplemented the core optimally yet, and that's been their new goal.

Your determination to not give the White Sox a lick of credit is unnecessary. You wanted them to lose so bad.

"He was so spineless that his owner wouldn't listen to his input on who the manager should be. "

I think you're confused. This isn't how organizational hierarchies work. Hahn reports to Jerry Reinsdorf and Zaidi reports to Charles Johnson. Hahn not being able to go over JR's head to hire the manager of his choice doesn't make him "spineless" lol. That's not how it works. Jerry literally owns the team. What he says, goes. He wanted to hire his buddy, TLR, so that's what happened. Hahn can't just tell his boss no, lmao. You might learn that after you graduate high school.

If Charles Johnson woke up today and after donating a couple more million to QAnon, called Zaidi and said "we're firing Kapler and hiring Buck Showalter today and that's that", guess what, Buck Showalter would be the new Giants manager tomorrow and Zaidi, like Hahn, would be left to twiddle his thumbs.


6.) 20 Oct 2021 21:05:32
"My prediction: Rick Hahn emulates Farhan Zaidi, by trying to find undervalued veterans with specific skillsets to help build cheap, but meaningful depth to his team. "

OMG, stop saying that Zaidi revolutionized acquiring undervalued veterans -- he literally just read Moneyball.

See how dumb that sounds?


7.) 25 Oct 2021 19:02:16
See, the difference is, I never actually said Zaidi revolutionalized anything. You literally used that phrase: "So, he's revolutionized the pre-arb extension idea and is trying to avoid what Theo Epstein (twice) couldn't do" (Dec 20, 2020).

Please know the difference, please and thank you.


8.) 25 Oct 2021 19:20:18
"The Sox had the most WAR lost from injuries in the entire league in 2021, still won 93 games, and yet they have no depth? I'm not sure I follow"

You see, Craig, when the White Sox play in a division that has the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and the Cleveland Baseball Team, a group of rabid rhesus monkeys could win 93 games. It's not that difficult to comprehend this. Reasonable people can do this. Then again, no one here is accusing you of being reasonable.

"Hahn didn't revolutionize the pre-arb deal"

Except you literally told me that Hahn revolutionalized the pre-arb deal. Those were your exact words. Verbatim. You even went as far as using that exact word. But now, you never said it? You'd make an excellent politician (don't take that as a compliment) .

"Therefore, is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what Rick Hahn did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core? Precisely. "

I'll fix that for you: "is Farhan Zaidi (and literally every baseball ops executive across the league) constantly attempting to do what EVERY SUCCESSFUL GM SINCE THE TURN OF THE MILLENIUM did by building a young, affordable, major league performant core?
Precisely. "

Willfully inserting Rick Hahn, as if he's the inventor, revolutionizer, or trailblazer of this strategy is the biggest homer thing to do. Rick Hahn is doing what Jeff Luhnow did, who did what Theo Epstein did, who did what Brian Sabean did. and other GMs who did this same thing. Building a core to win championships pre-dates Rick Hahn.

"If Zaidi is smart, he'll look to extend one or more of their top prospects at an opportune time like Hahn did. "

I'd argue he doesn't need to, simply based off how the Giants spend versus how the White Sox spend. It's pretty clear that Reinsdorf doesn't want to spend a lot of money on his teams. The Giants are willing to, and thus, they aren't afraid of paying arbitration costs or free agency costs. Locking players into long-term deals before they even reach the majors is a good strategy for the White Sox considering their context. But it's by no means necessary for the San Francisco Giants whose financial situation is almost without comparison in the league.

"If Charles Johnson woke up today and after donating a couple more million to QAnon, called Zaidi and said "we're firing Kapler and hiring Buck Showalter today and that's that", guess what, Buck Showalter would be the new Giants manager tomorrow and Zaidi, like Hahn, would be left to twiddle his thumbs. "

Well, considering Charles Johnson has very, very little say in the day-to-day operations, and that the Giants ownership structure gives Larry Baer this control (and has checks and balances in place), this would never happen.

Speaking of not understanding hierarchical structures.


9.) 25 Oct 2021 19:31:59
"The fact that he was THE guy for the Giants in their biggest game of the year simply because of a good 16-inning stretch is my point. He was their best option when the Dodgers had Treinen, Jansen and Scherzer. Again, Doval's NOT why they lost that series or even that game necessarily, but he's a big reason why they got outplayed at the end of that game. "

Hello Motte, meet Bailey.


10.) 25 Oct 2021 20:26:07
Not to mention, it IS spineless to let your owner do the job he is paying you to do. Jerry Reinsdorf isn't the GM of the White Sox. And if Rick Hahn had a higher amount of T than the guys targeted in that Frank Thomas commercial, he would have been vociferous in his objection to the TLR hire. He wasn't. He publicly made it clear that he supported the decision.

And it's more likely than not, both based on his comments and common sense, that Hahn knew about La Russa's DUI arrest prior to him being hired. And if he didn't, the Hahn is incompetent to be a leader.

There's zero chance they interviewed, hired, on-boarded, and did all the administrative work on TLR and not have Rick Hahn know about this. Zero.

He allowed his boss to micro-manage him and then willfully shut his mouth regarding a DUI arrest that marred the hiring and looked bad on his organization. And he didn't resign? If he's as desirable and as worthy of emulation as you suggest, he'd be able to find a president of baseball ops job tomorrow, with an organization whose owner would listen to him.

And yet, Hahn allowed his team to proceed with hiring a multiple-offense DUI manager, allowed his boss to walk all over him, and still remains with that organization.

Yeah, I feel that "spineless" isn't the right word. It doesn't even come close to accurately defining the character of Rick Hahn. He's much, much worse than spineless.


11.) 26 Oct 2021 14:31:32
My point with the pre-arb extensions regarding Hahn was that find me another GM in the arbitration era who has not only done more extensions, but have them pretty much all work wonderfully for the club (so far) . He didn't invent it obviously, but he made it a point of emphasis more than anyone I can remember, unless you have a better example.

"Well, considering Charles Johnson has very, very little say in the day-to-day operations, and that the Giants ownership structure gives Larry Baer this control (and has checks and balances in place), this would never happen. "

Johnson, Baer, whoever. My point still stands. You called Hahn spineless because he doesn't have control over his boss - an awful take

You keep bringing up the AL Central, but the Giants literally went 32-6 against the Rockies and Diamondbacks.

"The Sox had no depth"

"Well, see, yes they did. A lot of their good players got hurt and they replaced them with above average players"

"Oh, dang, well, THEIR DIVSION SUCKED SO HAAA"

Ok, and? Shame on the White Sox for not having better competition in the AL Central? Their pythag win total was 97 and again, they had the most WAR lost due to injury by a wide margin. They could have easily been a 100-win team if they weren't playing literally two of their everyday bats through stretches in June/ July.

"Hello Motte, meet Bailey. "

After you learned about this in English class last month, you have been wearing it out. It doesn't apply here, unfortunately, because you said the Giants were just fine with their bullpen - actually you said it was maybe the best bullpen of all postseason teams. The bullpen didn't really need a Treinen or Jansen per you. That bullpen presented a wildly talented, but woefully unexperienced Doval with their season on the line, and it played out how one would expect. It's not a Jason Motte and Andrew Bailey, you were just wrong.

"he would have been vociferous in his objection to the TLR hire. "

Pretty much everyone believes he was. But seriously, you acting like Hahn presented this idea of hiring TLR to the organization is just wrong. Reinsdorf unilaterally decided this. La Russa is his buddy who he "wrongfully" fired back in the 80s and this was him "righting his wrong". The man is entitled - he has seven rings and anted to say he could hire his Hall of Fame buddy to manage his last era of White Sox teams.

"There's zero chance they interviewed, hired, on-boarded, and did all the administrative work on TLR and not have Rick Hahn know about this. Zero. "

Yeah he couldn't care that much because he owner didn't. Heck, Hahn was probably the one that sent Passan the police report.

" If he's as desirable and as worthy of emulation as you suggest, he'd be able to find a president of baseball ops job tomorrow, with an organization whose owner would listen to him. "

If he didn't already build a damn good team in Chicago, he'd probably be seriously considering the Mets or Padres jobs tbh.

You're seriously overthinking this. When you own a baseball team, you decide what goes and what doesn't. Right after Renteria was fired last year, Hahn said that he was looking for a "younger manager with recent postseason success" before JR said F that and hired TLR.

Go into work tomorrow Nate and tell your boss (or literally the owner of the company) what he or she's going to do for the day and how things are going to run from now on - let me know how that goes for you. Or are you too spineless?


12.) 28 Oct 2021 18:44:58
"You keep bringing up the AL Central, but the Giants literally went 32-6 against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. "

They also went 10-9 against the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers. Interesting how you failed to point that one out. How many 100+ win teams were in the AL Central? Oh wait, they didn't have a second team finish over .500? Oh, whoops.

Imagine having a division with the Twins, Royals, AND the Tigers and having just one above-.500 team. That's pretty bad.


13.) 28 Oct 2021 18:59:35
"Go into work tomorrow Nate and tell your boss (or literally the owner of the company) what he or she's going to do for the day and how things are going to run from now on - let me know how that goes for you. Or are you too spineless? "

Well, considering I'm part owner of the business my father and I run (a business telecommunications company), this wouldn't really apply. But let's apply it anyway. If my father started hiring sales representatives without consulting me first, I'd absolutely speak up. Not just because I'm part-owner, but also because sales was delegated to me. That's my realm. There's also a mutual respect between the other owner (my father) and I.

This doesn't seem to be the case in the Chicago White Sox front office. I'd guess it has part to do with a doofus owner and part to do with a limp-wristed, panty-waisted GM.

But if my father (who founded the company) overstepped into my delegated area, and then proceeded to withhold information about that new hire having a criminal record, then I'd 100% step down.

Once again, Rick Hahn didn't do this. He has no right to speak up about TLR's issues and still be willfully and gainfully employed by that organization. None.

Once again, it's a serious, serious character issue on Hahn's part. His boss tried to hide the manager's DUI arrest (which, again, wasn't his first offense) and allowed it to potentially hold negative ramifications on Rick Hahn, Kenny Williams, and others within the organization (none of whom have the financial leverage that Reinsdorf has) .

A man with scruples would have resigned and refused to work in such an environment. Not Rick Hahn. He stuck around and even came around to praise TLR on many, many different occasions.

I firmly believe he's a bad person for it. But you continue to worship him at his altar. Says a lot about you, to be honest.


14.) 28 Oct 2021 20:03:40
Right, I think we should shame the White Sox due to the incompetency of Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit and Minnesota in 2021. It's entirely Rick Hahn and the White Sox's fault for their poor play.

"Imagine having a division with the Twins, Royals, AND the Tigers and having just one above-.500 team. That's pretty bad. "

You realize this leaves just one other team right? LOL. The AL Central race probably would have been at least a little different if Cleveland didn't lose their entire starting rotation to injury in the middle of the season.


15.) 29 Oct 2021 19:58:39
You're not being serious, are you? So I guess Cashman should resign because of Aroldis Champman and Dombrowski because of Odubel Herrera and their domestic violence issues. How about Chaim Bloom? He rehired the architect of the Astros cheating scandal. How about Al Avila in Detroit? How could Alex Anthopolis GM such a blatantly racist Atlanta Braves organization? How could Zaidi work for someone like Charles Johnson? He must support QAnon.

Right, right, right but Rick Hahn has moral issues because his boss went over his head to hire his friend who's a borderline alcoholic.

We don't know for sure what was said regarding TLR's hire behind closed doors. For all we know, Hahn could have been adamant that it would be a terrible move. What we do know is that before he was hired and AFTER La Russa was interviewed, Hahn expressed publicly that, again, they were looking for a quote "young manager with recent postseason success. " Heck, when they posted the "Welcome back to Chicago! " Tony La Russa hiring announcement graphics on Twitter, A. J. Hinch's signature was accidentally pasted next to TLR's name. Who do you think most of the org figured was going to be hired until the eleventh hour?

I'm one of the biggest TLR haters out there in terms of Sox fans and I don't even drink because of potential problems like DUIs which is an awful action, but to act like La Russa is a horrible human being given what others have done and still remain affiliated with MLB is a terrible take, but you may just be trolling at this point. At least I hope so for your sake.


16.) 05 Nov 2021 14:02:22
"but to act like La Russa is a horrible human being given what others have done and still remain affiliated with MLB is a terrible take"

You know two things can be true at the same time, right? I think it's important that you understand this. TLR willingly, knowingly getting behind the wheel while intoxicated on more than one occasion, which risks the lives of every person around him, puts him solely in the "horrible human being" category. He's there along with Chapman or Herrera.

And also, if you think a guy donating to candidates who support a stupid conspiracy theory is the same as a guy who risks killing people by drinking and driving, then you're the one trolling here.

As far as Giants ownership goes, Charles Johnson doesn't even have a voice within the Giants front office. That's handled by Larry Baer and Greg Johnson (who states that he doesn't hold his father's political views) . He's literally principal owner, meaning he put up the most money and has the largest stake should the team get sold. He's rarely even in the board meetings (again, his son does that on his behalf) .

Meanwhile, Rick Hahn WAS in the meetings. Regardless of what he may or may not have voiced prior to TLR's hiring, he still willingly stuck around with a club that employed him. He can voice whatever he feels now, but he still stayed with the White Sox. That much won't change.

But hey, TLR was never accused of beating his spouse. He just risked killing people behind the road. He's not that bad of a guy, right? Right?

I really hope you have a few more scruples about you this this, Dominic, but you're doing your damnedest to convince me otherwise.


 

 

22 Sep 2021 21:18:18
One last bit for Chi Sox, you asked if there was any correlation between success vs. .500 teams and success in the playoffs. There is.

I went from 2014-2019, and out of 24 teams who made it to the LCS in their respective leagues, just THREE (3) had losing records against .500 teams:

2015 Mets
2014 Royals
2014 Giants

Surprisingly, all 3 of these teams made it to the World Series, and one (2014 Giants) even won the Series.

But that's just 12% of the teams. From 2016-2019, there were zero of those 16 teams.

Make of that what you wish, but there is a direct, recent correlation between beating good teams in the regular season and success in the playoffs.

So the White Sox's 25-29 record against .500 teams isn't stellar.

Also, let's make something clear: the White Sox 25 wins against teams with .500 records IS THE LOWEST TOTAL IN BASEBALL.

The White Sox are a mediocre team who hasn't played anyone. And when they do play teams, they don't do very well. They currently hold a -15 run differential against those teams.

Let's check in on the "3 years from contention Giants"

They are 43-34 against .500 teams, with a +29 run differential. In other words, they are 44 runs better against good teams than the White Sox.

The Giants are an objectively better team than the Chicago White Sox.

I'll stop posting so you can read these updates through your tears.

natedog

1.) 23 Sep 2021 19:30:54
It shouldn't be difficult to make the correlation, though. The only teams you're playing in the postseason are teams with winning records. So it stands to reason that success against these teams in the regular season is a good indicator of success against them in the postseason.

So, where do the White Sox and Giants rank, individually, against .500 or better teams, let's go take a looksy.

Offense-
Giants: 100 wRC+. .317 wOBA, 116 HR (ranked 3rd)
White Sox: 94 wRC+, .307 wOBA, 51 HR (ranked 12th)

Rotation-
Giants: 388.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, .303 wOBA, 3.92 FIP (ranked 6th)
White Sox: 280.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, .282 wOBA, 3.43 FIP (ranked 3rd)

Bullpen-
Giants: 1285 TBF, 3.47 ERA, .288 wOBA, 4.15 FIP (ranked 3rd)
White Sox: 837 TBF. 4.76 ERA, .334 wOBA, 4.22 FIP (ranked 26th)

The difference in innings pitched and total batters faced is hilarious. The Giants have over 400 more batters faced in this scenario, and more than 100 starting pitcher innings.

The White Sox also have the lowest total of plate appearances against .500 teams of anyone in baseball, with 1999. They simply aren't facing good baseball teams, which is probably good for them. They are really bad when they actually have to.

But hey, at least Rick Hahn was once the runner-up in Sporting News' Executive of the Year. He's got that going for him!


2.) 25 Sep 2021 19:10:33
“Make of that what you wish”, ya, no chance of random variance in a sample of 24 teams, lol. I appreciate your research effort, however.

As you showed, they’re only 4 games under .500 with only a -15 run differential. They’ve played the other postseason teams very tightly. 10 of those 29 losses have been by 1-run.

If this is your evidence that there’s no way that they do anything in the postseason this year, then so be it. Others share your same sentiment.


3.) 27 Sep 2021 18:10:48
Assuming the Yankees and Red Sox end up as the Wild Card teams (which seems likely at this juncture), here's how the White Sox played against the playoff teams:

10-16, -39 Run Differential. Five of those wins were by just one run, as well.

Their first round opponent has 402 record with a +12 RD against the White Sox, and that's actually hurt by a 10-1 game in which the Astros threw their 3 worst relievers on the roster.

And again, this isn't just "my evidence". It's literally not happened once since 2016. Can it happen? Sure. But if you're betting on it, your best bet is to go against the White Sox.

Based on your predictions after the trade deadline, it might benefit you to switch it up a bit.


4.) 28 Sep 2021 00:19:15
LOL - "The Astros threw the worst 3 relievers on the roster"

In the 4 games the Astros won in Houston, the Sox deployed Ruiz, Burdi, Heuer, Foster, and Burr for 13 of the 15.1 relief innings.

Oh, and FYI, 4 of the losses, just like 5 of the wins against the AL postseason teams, were by one run.

Cherry picking facts per usual.


 

 

 

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06 Apr 2022 21:36:07
LOL. That group hit a combined 135 wRC+ and .371 wOBA, along with 78 HR (19 per hitter) on an .874 OPS.

So yeah, they probably should be. Because that's really damn good.

natedog

 

 

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06 Apr 2022 14:23:58
While we're at it, if there's ever been a fit for the White Sox, Kyle Crick is it.

Losing your season because you broke your hand fighting a teammate? Between him and Tim Anderson's violence issues, Reese McGuire's perversion, and Tony La Russa's substance-abuse issues, the White Sox sure do know how to pick 'em.

natedog

 

 

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06 Apr 2022 14:01:51
Well, if all else fails, I can pull the old "bUt ThE iNjUrIeS" excuse like White Sox fans did last year (and likely will this year) .

But hey, look at your team, they are going to have Vince Velasquez start games. Good thing you've got that deep bullpen and offense. 8-0 deficits after the 3rd inning may be tough to overcome.

Wade will be back in the lineup as early as next week, and La Stella as well (he may be okay for Opening Day, at least off the bench) . And in the meantime, the Giants run Estrada/ Flores in the infield and Joc Pederson as Slater's platoon partner? That's not a bad thing.

This is what you get when you build tremendous depth all around the field.

Meanwhile, the White Sox's depth includes Vince Velasquez and Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation and Kyle Crick in the bullpen LOL.

But I look forward to the excuses when you're using Reese "Choking the Chicken" McGuire as the starting catcher by mid-May.

The Twins and Tigers got better. The White Sox have Vince Velasquez as a starting pitcher. Should be comical to watch.

natedog

 

 

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04 Apr 2022 15:09:34
"Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect. "

Darin Ruf. Check.
Mike Yastrzemski. Check.
LaMonte Wade Jr. Check.
Donovan Solano. Check.
Thairo Estrada. Check.
Tyler Rogers. Check.
Zack Littell. Check.
Kevin Gausman. Check.
Drew Smyly. Check.
Dominic Leone. Check.

If you don't think that Zaidi could have found a way to fix Craig Kimbrel's issues, then you're being ridiculous. There's a reason pitchers are nearly busting down doors trying to play in San Francisco.

natedog

 

 

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14 Mar 2022 18:23:28
The Rays are most likely wanting to get out from that money, not just reinvest it into an overpriced, overrated relief pitcher.

The Rays don't exactly *need* Craig Kimbrel, so taking on more or equal money for him wouldn't even make sense.

(Also, your regular reminder that Craig Kimbrel is simply not a good pitcher anymore. )

natedog

 

 

 

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