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27 Jul 2021 16:43:12
Pirates/ Phillies

Phillies: Richard Rodriguez

Pirates: Rafael Marchan C (45FV), Yhoswar Garcia OF (40+FV)

Agree1 Disagree3

27 Jul 2021 17:36:10
This is a pretty fair deal.

27 Jul 2021 18:04:02
Reports have said there is some traction there. Not sure I’d want to target Rich Rod since they cracked down on the sticky stuff but if he can turn it around he would be a good option for Philly.

27 Jul 2021 18:10:05
Now, explain this:

Rodriguez, who is controlled through 2023, and is currently making less than 2M, he doesn't a 50 FV prospect, but Craig Kimbrel, who is a rental, at the best, or a 16M reliever in 2022 at worst, HE'S too good for a 45 FV prospect?

You understand that Rodriguez is likely to net a significantly greater return than Kimbrel, right?

If this is what you think Rodriguez gets (I agree with you), then it's highly unlikely Kimbrel even nets a fringy 45-FV prospect at all.

Can you at least try to be consistent?

27 Jul 2021 22:25:49
Kimbrel is also significantly better and a proven closer. I am consistent and we will see what unfolds in these next couple days but I doubt Rich Rod nets a greater return.

27 Jul 2021 22:28:52
Also, what’s up with you? Do you try to be condescending on every message you send for fun?

No wonder you and that ChiTown dude have beef lol I couldn’t imagine you having a civilized conversation with someone.

I’ve been back on this site for a week and all I’ve seen is your negativity and condescending attitude. No wonder this site is dead.

28 Jul 2021 01:00:51
Kimbrel's xFIP is 2.75 runs better that Rodriguez. As long as he's pitching like this, $16 million for next year as as much of a burden as you think.

28 Jul 2021 02:26:47
The question is: will he? The two seasons prior he was putrid, and there are multiple bits on his stat line that point to some pretty obvious regression.

I'm not saying Craig Kimbrel isn't valuable. But at 16M next year, he HAS to be every bit as good, and that's certainly not a sure bet.

Rodriguez's contract situation makes the dude pretty valuable.

28 Jul 2021 02:59:08
If the $16 million is that detrimental, then just buy him out. For a team going all in to win a championship this year, Kimbrel is leaps and bounds better that Rich Rod, and I actually really like the latter. Kimbrel is a top- five reliever in baseball.

22 Sep 2021 20:35:57
"Top 5 reliever in baseball"


27 Jul 2021 16:36:37
Mariners/ Nationals

Mariners: Trea Turner

Nationals: Noelvi Marte SS (50FV), George Kirby P (50FV), Juan Then P (45FV), Milkar Perez 3B (40FV)

Agree0 Disagree5

27 Jul 2021 15:02:19
NY Mets Trades for post season push:

Trade for Max Scherzer
Mets send to Nationals
1. Mark Vientos
2. David Peterson

Trade for J. Baez and C. Kimbrel
Mets send to Cubs
1. Ronny Mauricio
2. Frank Kilome

Agree2 Disagree4

27 Jul 2021 15:27:07
If Nats could land Vientos that would be an incredibly solid get for Scherzer.

Love Mauricio as the headliner here, but there would have to be some other supplementary pieces like Alexander Ramirez or Jordan Palmer instead of Kilome with the direction the cubs have gone in most trades.

Not bad all around, feel like both these moves would put the Mets as serious contenders.

27 Jul 2021 17:31:56

Nats trade
Agreed that Vientos and Peterson would be a goo hall for Nats especially since Scherzer is a rental. They would get a young position player and a decent MLB pitcher under control. It's costly but the Mets would go into the playoffs with arguably the best 1 - 2 punch in a rotation.

Cubs trade
I agree the secondary pieces would change. The only thing is that I don't think the mets will want to trade Palmer while trading Mauricio in this trade and Vientos in the Nats trade. After Mauricio the Mets don't have much SS prospect depth.
Mets would get Baez who could play SS until Lindor comes back then shift around to 2b, 3b when Lindor in healthy. Plus getting Kimbrel for this year and next year ---- he's been lock down.

27 Jul 2021 17:33:34
I highly doubt Nats would trade Turner.
Turner and Soto are the 2 players they will build around.

27 Jul 2021 17:37:35
There's a better chance that Chi Sox says something bad about Jose Abreu than the Cubs getting Ronny Mauricio for Baez + Kimbrel.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:13

There have been multiple legitimate sources that have stated the Nats are taking offers on Turner and Seattle is very interested.

27 Jul 2021 07:44:19
Here's what the White Sox should do this week:

Trade #1

White Sox get: RHP Ryan Tepera
Cubs Get: RHP Andrew Dalquist, INF Yolbert Sanchez

Trade #2

White Sox get: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar
Diamondbacks get: 1B/OF Gavin Sheets

Trade #3

White Sox get: Ian Kennedy RHP
Rangers get: DH Yermin Mercedes, RHP Kade McClure

Agree3 Disagree5

27 Jul 2021 11:15:10
Tepera trade isn’t bad at all. Would be a solid return for a rental and Sox would get a consistent bullpen arm. I like it.

27 Jul 2021 04:39:52

Athletics: Andrew Chafin

Cubs: Greg Diechmann OF (FV40+), Daniel Palencia P (FV40+)

FV according to Fangraphs. com.

Agree1 Disagree0

27 Jul 2021 13:38:50
It's an interesting return for Chafin. Very low floor, medium ceiling type players.

The real prize for the Cubs could be Palencia. If they can work on his stuff, he's got late-inning upside, in my opinion.

Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years.

27 Jul 2021 13:57:23
What…? Lol was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and likely would have been up early this year if they didn’t lose 2020 to c.v.. He has also improved his walk rate a ton and cut his strikeout %.

I agree he doesn’t have a high ceiling, but to make that statement you made in your last sentence is just incorrect. Especially when you hype up Dubon who is older and performing worse at the same level.

27 Jul 2021 14:20:08
Dubon is MLB-bench depth who can be played all over the field, something guys like Jed Hoyer have targeted in the past (see: Zobrist, Ben) .

Also, how is Dubon performing worse at the "same level"?

2021 AAA stats:
Dubon- 143 wRC+. .419 wOBA
Deichmann- 128 wRC+, .395 wOBA

They are performing at pretty similar rates. They are both low-ceiling, low-floor guys. Also, both have hilariously unsustainable BABIPs in AAA. Deichmann isn't going to have a .400 BABIP for the Cubs. A BABIP of even .350 pulls his wRC+ down to around league average (100).

I can see why the Cubs are intrigued by Deichmann. If he works out, it's brilliant. They got a great OF for the price of Andrew Chafin (who is also having a hilariously unsustainable year) . If he doesn't, well, they got a 26-year-old OF prospect who likely wasn't going to be much more than a 4th OF anyway.

It's a good trade. But I would lower your expectations for Deichmann by a significant amount.

27 Jul 2021 14:23:55
Also, my statement of "Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years. " cannot be incorrect yet.

It's a prediction. One that neither you nor I have any indication whether it's right or wrong.

If you think Deichmann will be some stud in Chicago, by all means, predict away. I'm of the belief that he's not much of an improvement over someone like Michael Hermosillo, who the Cubs won't even roster.

I'm okay with being wrong, but Deichmann's types have been around for over a decade, and rarely do they stick around.

I'm not incorrect. You're not incorrect. It's called a "prediction". We'll deem what's correct in about 3-5 years.

27 Jul 2021 14:40:56
Ben Zobrist was a key piece in a World Series winning team and a 2 time all star BEFORE the Cubs acquired him. Just because Dubon can play multiple positions doesn’t put him in any relation with Zobrist.

When did I have expectations about GD? I just didn’t agree with what you said. I agreed his ceiling isn’t high, but to say he will be one of those guys to be DFA is just silly given the fact he has shown improvement and has potential to hit well.

27 Jul 2021 17:46:35
My point to Dubon was that positional flexibility is something that Hoyer is ON THE RECORD saying he values. If he can have a bench piece who plays infield and outfield, he can put more relievers on the roster.

Deichmann is a 26-year-old OF prospect, who doesn't hit lefties, at all, who is relying on a .401 BABIP to produce in AAA. He's not going to carry a .401 BABIP in Chicago, or anything close to it.

He'll likely be a 65-80 wRC+ guy, which isn't a starter, by any means, and likely shouldn't come off the bench, unless he becomes someone who can tee off on RHP. Unless something drastically changes, Deichmann is a platoon-guy, likely at the highest possible projection. And those guys get optioned and DFA'd literally every day in baseball.

He's an intriguing option, but saying he's likely to waste his option years and be DFA'd isn't that silly.

20 Jul 2021 14:57:35
Some Giants trades.

Giants get: RHP Kenta Maeda, OF Brent Rooker

Twins get: OF Austin Slater, 3B Luis Toribio (#9, 45 FV), SS Dilan Rosario (#26, 40 FV), RHP Camilo Doval (MLB-ready RHP, 40 FV).

Zaidi is familiar with Maeda, and Rooker seems like a lot of the Zaidi acquisitions. Twins would be more than familiar with the Giants' system.

Giants get: RHP Yimi Garcia

Marlins get: RHP Tyler Beede

Giants solidify their bullpen, while the Marlins get some controllable pitching. They get a fixer-upper in Tyler Beede. Zaidi gets Garcia, who he is more than familiar with.

Giants get: Kris Bryant

Cubs get: OF Alexander Canario (#13, 45 FV), UTIL Mauricio Dubon

Giants go get a guy Scott Harris is familiar with to bolster the lineup. Cubs get a super-utility guy and an intriguing OF prospect.

Lineup vs. RHP
1B- Wade
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
3B- Bryant
SS- Crawford
LF- Dickerson
CF- Duggar
2B- Solano/Flores

vs. LHP
RF- Yastrzemski
3B- Bryant
C- Posey
1B- Ruf
LF- Rooker
SS- Crawford
2B- Flores/Solano
CF- Duggar

Gausman, DeSclafani, Maeda, Cueto, Wood

CP- Garcia (R)
SU- Rogers (R)
SU- McGee (L)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)
RP- Jackson/Brebbia (R)

Agree10 Disagree8

21 Jul 2021 12:46:29
Maeda has multiple years of control left at only a 3mil a year price. Going to have to give up a higher touted prospect imo.

Beede / Garcia deal is fine.

Canario is a nice prospect, but if Joc Pederson brought a 40FV prospect, I imagine KB can land a 50 or multiple prospects.

Overall not bad offers just need to be adjusted based on the value of the players coming to the giants. I think the giants make out pretty nicely on all 3 and it’s favored towards them.

21 Jul 2021 14:20:58
The $3.125M is the baseline. It's an incentive based contract.

In order to only be paid $3.125M, Maeda has to have less than 15 starts and less than 90 IP. If you're only paying Maeda $3M, then he had a bad year, and likely, didn't play much at all. At 180IP and 30 games started, Maeda is paid around $11M. That changes the value by quite a bit.

As far as the Bryant trade, if the Cubs can get a 50-grade prospect out of Kris Bryant, then they should, by all means, make that trade. Personally, I don't see any team giving up that return for a rental. And I strongly doubt it'll be the Giants, unless they can secure an extension out of him.

21 Jul 2021 15:45:18
Then the Giants won’t be the trade partner for Bryant. Offer him a QO and receive a high comp pick. Better than settling. If anything, pair Bryant with a reliever (Kimbrel, Chafin, Tepera) and improve the return.

21 Jul 2021 17:04:07
If you think that Alexander Canario and Mauricio Dubon is "settling", then I think you'll be sorely disappointed by any Kris Bryant trade. I don't think this is necessarily the "best" trade, but I do think it falls in line with what's fair.

Keep in mind, compensatory pick rules changed, and the Cubs would get a pick in between rounds 2 and 3 if they lost Bryant after offering a QO (due to their market size, they wouldn't get a 1st Round Comp Pick) . Do you truly believe that a 45-grade prospect would be available by then? If they are, it's likely because they are wanting a massive signing bonus.

Point is: Canario and Dubon would be significantly more valuable than anyone the Cubs are finding in the 3rd round of the draft.

If the Cubs are offered a return involving a couple of 40-FV guys, sure, take your chances in the division and with the Comp Pick. But I see them getting more.

21 Jul 2021 18:50:34
“ If a team that loses a qualifying free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, and the lost player signs for at least $50 million, the team is awarded a compensatory pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for the team comes after Competitive Balance Round B. ”

I think Bryant will sign for over 50 million…lol

27 year old utility man Dubon?! No thanks. As stated before, Canario is a nice prospect, but he won’t lead a package for Bryant.

21 Jul 2021 19:11:00
I've watched my fair share of Maeda start this year, he's looked brutal. Not sure he's any better than what SF currently has in the rotation.

Also, If you think that package is definitely suitable for Bryant and mine wasn't for Story (who is less valuable, having a worse season/ career, and has a smaller market), you need to rethink your valuations and comments.

22 Jul 2021 01:32:55
If you think someone better than Canario is headlining a Bryant deal, I honestly don't know what to say.

You'll be thoroughly disappointed with the deal. Just going to say it.

And Chi Sox, no. I don't think Bryant and Story will receive that drastically different returns. Probably a 45 FV guy each, with Bryant likely fetching an intriguing MLB piece on top of it. (Slater or Dubon from the Giants would likely do the trick)

22 Jul 2021 15:32:37
Ah ok. Maybe all my trade was lacking then was intriguing MLB piece Danny Mendick.

22 Jul 2021 17:15:29
Buddy, your thought process is hilarious and precious.

1. State a wild claim. "Story can be had for a paltry return of 3 40 FV prospects. "

2. Beg the question. "Hey, since Story is only going to be had for 3 40 FV prospects, why is Kris Bryant's trade not much different than your Story trade ideas?

3. Condescend when you realize that begging the question isn't working.

It's an interesting strategy. I'm not sure it's working out for you all that well. But I admire the hustle.

22 Jul 2021 17:25:45
What your trade for Trevor Story was missing was actual players who will convince the Colorado Rockies to hand over Trevor John Story, and names that will beat out the offers of other baseball teams.

Impressively, your trade idea matched neither of those criteria.

22 Jul 2021 17:37:45
MrOctober, you should have kept reading. This is from MLB's Website:

"if the team that loses the free agent is a REVENUE-SHARING RECIPIENT, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2020 MLB Draft. "

Okay, so that paragraph doesn't pertain to the Chicago Cubs, who aren't a revenue-sharing recipient. So what rules pertain to them? Next paragraph:

"If the team that loses the player DOES NOT RECEIVE revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. "

This is where the Cubs' pick would be. The size of the contract doesn't matter. Kris Bryant could feel charitable and go to the Rays on a $1M contract. The Cubs would still be stuck in this spot, providing they don't exceed the luxury tax, of which, they then get a pick after the fourth round.

22 Jul 2021 23:24:58
Ramos + Sheets + Thompson > Canario.

I am truly sorry.

23 Jul 2021 04:37:06
Might want to reevaluate your player values after that Nelson Cruz trade.

24 Jul 2021 01:48:57
Why? Tampa Bay was in a serious roster crunch, and have about 3 billion prospects who are Rule 5 Eligible. Guys like Joe Ryan weren't making the roster in 2022.

Context matters in these deals. And trying to say, "Nelson Cruz got this, therefore, Kris Bryant will get this" is a fools errand and it has NEVER been a rule that ends up being consistent.

If you want, you could point to the Cubs giving up Gleyber Torres for Chapman. Why don't we see those deals? Because no one has the context the Cubs had in 2016. No one.

26 Jul 2021 18:53:13
Chi Sox - Per Fangraphs own rankings, a 45M FV prospect is worth 6M, a 40 FV is worth 2M.

Canario (45M) = 6M
Ramos + Thompson + Sheets = 6M.

Add in Dubon, and the Giants offer is significantly better.

I'm truly sorry.

26 Jul 2021 22:25:10
Nate, you wouldn't be referencing a FG article from 2018 now would you?

Remember, those values have no bearing on today's market. You said so yourself. So maybe the difference between Machado (or Bryant) and Story's values is in fact an addition of Dubon?

Wooooow, see how that works?

26 Jul 2021 22:29:53
My trade for Story was way too light you say, but when you take the value amassed from Sheets, Thompson and Ramos and add a AAAA-guy like Dubon, then, according to you, they could get a player worth more than a win better than Story season.

Interesting string of logic there.

27 Jul 2021 02:44:36
I'm literally referencing the BOARD and the numbers associated with the Farm Rankings Leaderboard, as they currently exist on the website, right now.

Seriously, this game you're playing is beyond petty, bro. You're literally trying to find ANYTHING to nitpick.

Go ask your mom to make you some Kool-Aid and play some Minecraft. You clearly need a break.

27 Jul 2021 05:42:02
You literally posted Abreu's splits vs. .500+ teams and sub-.500 teams, and I'm nit-picking?


27 Jul 2021 11:58:53
Umm, that's, I don't know, slightly relevant to the conversation.

Saying, "wow, you posted information from 2018 LULULLULULZ" and then being colossally wrong not only makes you look insanely dumb and petty, it also makes you look like an arrogant fill-in-the-blank.

Seriously. You're so incapable to accepting that you're wrong that you had to try and throw something super petty out there.

It makes it look worse when you were dead wrong LOLOLOLOLOL.

19 Jul 2021 04:18:38
Cubs/ Blue Jays

Blue Jays: Craig Kimbrel

Cubs: Jordan Groshans SS/ 2B, Eric Pardinho SP.

Agree1 Disagree10

19 Jul 2021 20:41:43
Drastic overpay by the Blue Jays.

29 Jul 2021 04:02:58
Yeah, the Jays won't give up those prospects for a player that probably won't even help them get to a WC game this year. I think you will see some higher end prospects moved in the off season for the Jays to make a serious run in the next couple years.

19 Jul 2021 04:09:36
Cubs/ Red Sox

Red Sox receive: Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel

Cubs receive: Bryan Mata SP, Gilberto Jimenez OF, Nick Yorke 2B, Brian Bello SP

Red Sox need to strengthen their bullpen and 1B has been arguably their worst producing position on their team. You aren’t going to win with a platoon of Danny Santana and Bobby Dalbec. Red Sox give up a number of quality prospects here but they have a crowded OF, and none of these guys will be reaching the majors to help them compete in the near future.

Cubs get a solid haul here with a lot of upside. Kimbrel’s value is at an all time high so they need to receive a legitimate package to move him. Tagging on Rizzo makes too much sense here and gets them an extra prospect and some more quantity.

Agree0 Disagree8

19 Jul 2021 21:24:21
Kimbrel's "value" isn't at an all-time high. You have two scenarios with his contract:

A) His option fails to vest and he's a free agent this winter, thus a rental
B) His option vests and his acquiring team is on the hook for a $16M reliever.

In situation A, I don't see a single team shelling out a Top 100 prospect (like the Blue Jays do above) for a rental. And I see it even less if teams have to pay him $16M next year.

Kimbrel's value is puffed up by the media, and while I suspect the Cubs will get something interesting for him, I think Cubs fans will be underwhelmed.

21 Jul 2021 12:47:41
Kimbrel’s value is most definitely the highest it will ever be going forward. He will land a respectable package of prospects. We will see when teams get desperate towards the deadline and the type of prospect haul he pulls.

21 Jul 2021 14:26:50
That's fair, but it still doesn't help your trade. In fact, it hurts it.

If Kimbrel will never be this valuable again, then why would teams give up a 50 FV prospect for him? I don't see the elite clubs making a desperate move for him.

I could see Kimbrel drawing in a 45 FV guy, but it'd likely be a fringier player, someone with 45 FV upside, but also could be a massive bust. Think someone like Jairo Solis from Houston or Rafael Marchan out of Philadelphia.

I'm willing to be wrong, because teams do crazy things at the trade deadline, but I don't see anyone desperate enough to blow it open for Craig Kimbrel. I just don't.

27 Jul 2021 03:34:39
Chafin gets a 40+ and another prospect but Kimbrel will only land a fringe 45? Loooool.

27 Jul 2021 04:23:05
Make that two 40+ prospects according to Fangraphs. Again, you may want to reevaluate the way you value players.

27 Jul 2021 17:49:43
But Adam Frazier, who is not a rental, got a 40 FV and 2 35+ FVs.

It's almost as if:

A. You can't compare trades and
B. Pitchers have ALWAYS gotten more at the trade deadline than position players.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:19
More context: Andrew Chafin is making south of 3M this year. The Cubs are likely taking on most of the remainder of that deal.

Craig Kimbrel will make almost DOUBLE that amount, just for the next 60 games of the regular season.

Kimbrel also has the potential of his option vesting. He only needs about 75 games finished (thanks to the pro-rated amount from the shortened season), and is currently at 46. In other words, a team that desperately needs him (enough to pony up a 50-FV prospect) could be on the hook for a 16M reliever in 2022.

A team that may not need him 29 of their next 60 games, thus his option not vesting ABSOLUTELY isn't going to give up a 50-FV prospect for him.

That contract, and the potential for Kimbrel's option to vest, is enough for teams to balk at the asking price.

Now, if the Cubs were to guarantee some serious money should his option vest (8-10M), then I could maybe see it.


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