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28 Nov 2021 21:43:34
Ideal Yankees 2022 Roster (Highly Unrealistic because not all of them can happen but these should be their targets)

C Salvador Perez
1B Matt Olson
2B Gleyber Torres
3B D.J. LeMahieu
SS Corey Seager
LF Joey Gallo
CF Ketel Marte
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton

Bench

C Gary Sanchez
IF Gio Urshela
OF Kevin Pillar
SS Andrelton Simmons

Rotation

Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
Luis Castillo
Jameson Taillon
Jordan Montgomery

Bullpen

Domingo German
Nestor Cortes Jr.
Chad Green
Jonathan Loaisiga
Joely Rodriguez
Clay Holmes
Josh Hader
Aroldis Chapman

Agree0 Disagree6

27 Nov 2021 15:05:57
Wow! Three great signing by the Mets. Cahna and Escobar were very good value signings. even with no other signings I like their lineup. who know they may still get Baez but

Now Mets need 2 starters.
Love to see Gausman and Stroman

1. CF - Marte
2. LF - Nimmo
3. SS - Lindor
4. 1b - Alonso
5. 3b - Escobar
6. 2b - McNeil
7. RF - Cahna
8. DH - Cano
9. C - McCann

6 man rotation?
deGrom*, Stroman, Gausman, Carrasco, Walker, Megill / Peterson

Agree1 Disagree1

27 Nov 2021 19:18:55
Not saying it's impossible, but adding Stroman AND Gausman would put their payroll around $250 million without addressing their bullpen. I think they get one of those guys, a cheaper back-end guy, and then allocate some money to their bullpen. Cohen isn't going to be too discouraged by any tax threshold it appears tho.

28 Nov 2021 00:04:41
Robinson Cano for Craig Kimbrel would clear $8M for Cohen, and probably falls more in line with what the White Sox can get for Kimbrel.

28 Nov 2021 03:15:31
Apparently the Sox currently have a choice between Cano and Lindor.

25 Nov 2021 14:00:58
Free Agents predictions for fun:

Correa: Tigers
C.Seager: Yankees
Bryant: Mets
Semien: Mariners
Freeman: Braves
Ray: Blue Jays
Scherzer: Dodgers
Gausman: Angles
Stroman: Mets
Marte: Astros
Story: Rangers
Taylor: Giants
Baez: Angels
Castellanos: Marlins
Suzuki: Mariners
Kershaw: Rangers
Jansen: Blue Jays
R. Iglesias: Angels
Rizzo: Yankees
Conforto: White Sox
J. Gray: Yankees
Schwarber: Red Sox
Cruz: Brewers
Canha: Guardians
Neris: Royals
Kluber: Twins
Rodon: Rays
Pineda: Twins
Grienke: Braves
Knebel: Phillies
McHugh: Dodgers
D. Duffy: Brewers
Raley: Astros
K. Seager: Blue Jays
Soler: Phillies
E. Rosario: Braves
Kikuchi: Cubs
Avi Garcia: Guardians
E. Escobar: Nationals
Pham: Reds
L. Garcia: Blue Jays
J. Kelly: Phillies
Pederson: A's
Simmons: Reds
Tepera: Mets
Gomes: Guardians
Villar: Nationals
Cobb: Giants
C. Hernandez: Red Sox
M. Duffy: A's
J. Iglesias: Astros
McCutchen: Padres
Galvis: Rockies
C. Frazier: Cubs
Pillar: Tigers
O. Herrera: Rangers
Tyler Anderson: Reds
Calhoun: Rockies
Bundy: Yankees
Cueto: Tigers
Chafin: Red Sox
Harrison: Guardians
Odor: A's
Solano: Orioles
Gardner: Phillies
Dickerson: Nationals
Vogt: White Sox
Tsutsugo: Pirates
Fowler: Mets
Eaton: Pirates
Moreland: A's
Carpenter: Rockies
Davies: Orioles
Smyly: Rockies
Wacha: A's
Kim: Reds
Hamels: Angels
Paxton: Orioles
JA Happ: Nationals
Lester: Mets
C. Martinez: Pirates
M. Franco: Dbacks
M. Gonzalez: Cubs
B. Anderson: Rangers
T. Shaw: Orioles

and some trade destinations:

Olsen: Dodgers
Chapman: Rays
Segura: White Sox
Kiermaier: Phillies
DeJong: Twins
Ahmed: Phillies
Margot: Braves
Wendle: Cubs
Gregorius: Dbacks

Manaea: White Sox
Bassitt: Giants
Kimbrel: Phillies
Sonny Gray: Mariners

Agree5 Disagree4

27 Nov 2021 16:03:33
I can’t fully express how laughably bad a Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura trade is for Philadelphia.

27 Nov 2021 19:06:16
Rumor is it would be Kimbrel for Segura AND Alvarado, lol. Kimbrel is a top-10, top-15 RP and the Phillies have Stott knocking at the door. Given also how bad they need bullpen help, it makes sense for them. I know you absolutely hate Kimbrel tho.

28 Nov 2021 00:03:22
LOL. "#White Sox have interest in Jean Segura and Jose Alvarado from the #Phillies in a potential Craig Kimbrel trade. " From "MLB Nerds" twitter.

This is right up there with that Bennett Karoll "rumor" you believed. It's so outlandish that I'd expect even you to reject it.

IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects.

And if Rick Hahn really thinks he could pull this off (I don't believe he actually does, you just believed a made up rumor from a Twitter account with 3K followers), then he might be clinically insane.

I'm not the president of the Rick Hahn fan club, but even ole' Rick "Give Adam Eaton $8M" Hahn isn't this dumb.

28 Nov 2021 00:32:45
Also, in what world is Craig Kimbrel a "top 10 RP"? Did you take a time machine to 2016?

We're talking about a guy who, from 2019-2021 had a 3.67 ERA, and that's low because of 4 months of 2021.

Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021, his ERA from 2019-2021 is 5.64, with a FIP nearing 7.00, a 2.44 HR/ 9, and 5.19 BB/ 9.

Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. Not Rick Hahn. He picked up a 16M option on him!

28 Nov 2021 03:00:04
Kimbrel had the 6th best fWAR, 4th best K-BB%, 9th best xwOBA. He's pretty firmly in the top-10 to 15 RP conversation. lol. cry.

"Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. "

Guys with almost 33 K-BB% don't get DFA'd my man. It just simply isn't true. Try again.

"Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021."

"Sans a 412 PA stretch from Darin Ruf, he really sucks. "

"IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects. "

If you actually, genuinely believe this statement and aren't trolling, you really just don't know the game. This is idiotic. C'mon dude.

Hahn is going to get really nice value for Kimbrel (if he is in fact traded), and you're going to be absolutely furious, which I find hilarious.

Also, nothing on here is as outlandish as you creating an additional account so someone would agree with you. That's just plain sad, David Stearns. And this isn't the first time, astonishingly.

It's still very telling that you think Hahn missing on Adam Eaton on a one-year flyer is a big "gotcha moment". If that's what your evidence is for him being a lousy GM in recent years, then you may want to re-evaluate your stance.

29 Nov 2021 14:43:45
Literally no one is crying, except maybe me crying laughing at you thinking that Craig Kimbrel, who, over the last 3 seasons, has been good for a span of 4 months, is somehow a Top 15 reliever in baseball.

And that you think that the best you can get for a Top 15 reliever is an overpaid middle infielder.

You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. He's an awful reliever and it was a comical mistake for Rick Hahn to pick up that option, and now, White Sox fans want out of it.

Hint: If you had a competent GM, it would have cost $1M to get rid of him. Heck, they could have easily signed a "Top 15 RP" for around 5-7M AAV, if even that.

But please, post another "rumor" from a Twitter account with 3K who pretends to have sources. I'm sure it's super substantive!

29 Nov 2021 16:34:08
"You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. "

Apparently referencing commonly used pitching stats and everyday comprehensive metrics like fWAR is now considered mental gymnastics. Your rationale is literally "trust me, bro - Kimbrel stinks'.

Your plummet on this site is unreal. You've resorted to fighting against numbers. It's a really tough scene.

Mind you, Nate, you are the same person who fought tooth and nail to argue that Darin Ruf was a better baseball player than Jose Abreu after a good 400 PA stretch.

30 Nov 2021 15:51:42
These projections are really going well for you LMAOOOO.

30 Nov 2021 18:37:22
Projections like these are tremendously difficult. Get one wrong, and a domino effect can start, especially with the top guys. That said, you correctly predicted only three a year ago. I predicted destinations for almost 100 players and you're laughing at them 5 days later, lol.

I've gotten Tsutsugo and Cobb correct and Knebel may be close.

30 Nov 2021 19:17:54
It probably helps that the Alex Cobb signing was rumored last week, well before this post, don't you think?

And no, it's not "that hard", I'm sitting comfortably in the top 20 over at the MLBTR contest.

In fairness, though, this is probably quite difficult for you. You seem to have a knack for not getting predictions right around here.

01 Dec 2021 14:38:49
Frazier to the Cubs, just like that.

You're top 20 on the MLBTR and you apparently posted my take in a renowned actuarial subreddit that proves me wrong.

Try sharing some links so we don't have to take your worthless word for the things you say.

"it's not "that hard""

You were 3 for 20 last year bub. LOL.

01 Dec 2021 19:23:11
"Nate Skomski" on the MLBTR leaderboard my dude. Dropped down after the Javier Baez deal, but overall, 7/ 25.

Go check r/ actuary, on a post back around November 4th. I've tried to submit the link multiple times and it never gets posted, but it was on there as of the time of posting this comment.

And while we're waiting for links, I need to see a reliable source on that Segura-for-Kimbrel "rumor". Not a tweet from MLB Nerds, not from Bennett Karoll, but from someone who actually has a history of journalism and making these calls.

Please, when you have one, send it my way.

01 Dec 2021 20:54:26
Knebel to Philly. Check.

01 Dec 2021 21:09:02
Nobody "credible" has mentioned Kimbrel for Segura (at least I don't think), but that doesn't mean I can't propose it. Me calling it a rumor based on anonymous account was my response to you over-hyperbolizing the proposal.

You claim Kimbrel is trash despite stats that say the exact opposite.

I checked r/ actuary - nothing there even remotely related to baseball. Maybe it magically got deleted. What did you title the post?

02 Dec 2021 14:17:20
"Correlation and Causation in Baseball Argument". That was the title of the post. So, if it's not there for you, I can't help you any further.

As far as Craig Kimbrel goes: the dude was good for exactly a 4-month stretch. 2019: hot garbage. 2020: hot garbage. Second half of 2021: hot garbage.

In other words, over the last 3 seasons, Kimbrel was good for about 38% of his innings, and absolutely terrible for the other 62%.

From 2019-2021, he was worth 1.2 WAR. His WAR in the first half of 2021 with the Cubs represented 183% of that total!

183% of his production was based on 38% of all his innings. The other 62%? He was worth -1.0 WAR.

You're trying to tell everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still great because he had a solid 4-month span of baseball, and you're hoping we don't look at what he did with the White Sox, or with the Cubs in 2019 and 2020. Kimbrel reverted to that same pitcher, almost overnight.

And for as good as Craig Kimbrel is, you and the other White Sox fans on Twitter and other places seem hellbent on getting rid of him! Just months ago, you were touting the importance of having a dominant bullpen, and now, you're suggesting they sacrifice that dominance for a role they can fill for dirt cheap in the likes of Donovan Solano or Josh Harrison (who probably have as much value as Segura, just on potential contract alone) .

You don't trade an elite, top-15 relief pitcher for a 32-year-old 2B making 14M a year.

For as cocky as you act on here, the fact you don't know this is quite embarrassing. I'm actually embarrassed for you.

02 Dec 2021 14:55:47
Here's a question for you:

If you're looking at investing in stock, and you see that the company made $1 billion last year, would you invest?

Before you answer, some further information. The company made $1 billion dollars from January to June, and exactly zero dollars from July to December. Still interested?

More information: the company was actually LOSING money, in fact, close to $500M from the two years prior. Now how interested are you?

I'd reckon you wouldn't be very interested, and for good reason.

This is Craig Kimbrel. He was really, really, really good for a brief period, but overall, he's been really bad. And trying to sell him like he made a billion dollars, thus he's worth a billion now is a really bad take, even for your standards, James.

02 Dec 2021 20:25:13
Nothing like a good ole' Natedog analogy to really drive home a bad take.

It is absolutely astonishing how you are saying that Kimbrel has only been good over a four month stretch and therefore is horrible but wholeheartedly believe that Darin Ruff is better than Jose Abreu. You will really believe anything as long as it benefits your argument and makes the Chicago White Sox look bad.

Kimbrel had a very good 2021 season.

16 Dec 2021 13:50:08
Darin Ruf wasn't just good for a "4-month period" (with that 4-month period being sandwiched in between really, really, really bad performance) . He was really bad for several years, went to Korea, figured out his swing, came back to the states and has been really good.

My point has never been that Darin Ruf has had a better career. I know you take any slight at a White Sox player very personally, but a little bit of reality is needed for you.

My argument was that IN THE YEAR TWENTY-TWENTY ONE A. D., Darin Ruf had an objectively better season. For one season. Not for his entire career. Not even for multiple seasons. For one season.

Feel free to disagree with that point. But your scarecrow argument to suggest I'm saying Darin Ruf is better, period, is hilarious.

But it's what we've come to expect from you.

You literally cannot handle that someone has, accurately, pointed out that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage, and that Rick Hahn stupidly a) traded really good and, now, very necessary talent for Kimbrel and then b) picked up an option that is likely 2-4x what he'd make on the open market on a 1-year-deal.

That was a beyond stupid move from Hahn, regardless of what you think about Kimbrel's talent and future outlook. He's not worth 16M, and even you agree, as evidenced by the many trades you've tried to toss him into.

If he was truly an elite pitcher, you'd have no issue, whatsoever, with him getting 16M, or at the very least, you'd shoot for a little bit higher tier 2B in a trade.

16 Dec 2021 13:51:08
Correction: Craig Kimbrel had a very good 2021 season with the Chicago Cubs.

That was it. He went bankrupt in the second half.

While we're at it, can I interest you in buying stock in WeWork? They were really good for a season!

20 Dec 2021 14:19:16
We'll kick it over to DavidStearnsGM for comment: David?

18 Nov 2021 19:17:37
Uh Oh!

Wander Franco might be close to a pre-arb extension with Tampa Bay. Will Erik Neander have to address the associated racism that comes with giving an early-20s minority superstar $100 million?

This also reflects poorly on those that will continue to support the Rays - low moral character.

We thank Natedog for bringing this travesty to light.

Agree7 Disagree0

18 Nov 2021 21:12:57
Dude, give it a rest.

18 Nov 2021 21:27:10
Learning from Rick Hahn, who revolutionized this racist act. Man, he truly has infested the league.

Next thing you know, these teams are going to hire drunk-drivers as managers!

19 Nov 2021 14:36:40
There it is, the admission that Hahn's success has had an effect on the league. We're done here.

21 Nov 2021 12:18:24
Yes, Hahn's racism has so far infected the Major Leagues.

Indeed, I agree. We're done here.

23 Nov 2021 17:02:29
Reportedly $223 million for Wander, wow. The racist Rays should have kept him at the league minimum for his own good and not forced him to sign this massive deal.

23 Nov 2021 18:14:02
You understand there’s a colossal difference between $50M and $223M, right?

24 Nov 2021 16:20:26
Approx. $173 million. What's your point?

17 Nov 2021 18:59:00
Brewers Offseason

1. Sign Collin McHugh (RHP) for 2 years, $15M.

2. Trade:

Milwaukee gets: Clint Frazier (OF) NY Yankees get: Cade Lemons (RHP)

3. Sign Kurt Suzuki (C) for 1 year, $2M

4. Trade:
Boston gets Josh Hader (LHP)
Milwaukee gets: Bobby Dalbec (1B); Gilberto Jimenez (OF); Connor Seabold (RHP)

5. Sign Shawn Armstrong (RHP) for 1 year, 1.5M.

6. Non-tender Daniel Vogelbach & Jandel Gustave

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Wong
SS- Adames
LF- Yelich
DH- Tellez
3B- Urias
1B- Dalbec
C- Narvaez
RF- Frazier
CF- Taylor

Bench
C- Suzuki
2B- Brosseau
2B- Peterson
CF- Bradley
RF- Cain

Rotation
1. Burnes (R)
2. Woodruff (R)
3. Peralta (R)
4. Houser (R)
5. Lauer (L)

Bullpen
CP- Williams (R)
SU- Suter (L)
SU- McHugh (R)
RP- Cousins (R)
RP- Gott (R)
RP- Perdomo (L)
RP- Ashby (L)
RP- Armstrong (R)

Agree5 Disagree0

18 Nov 2021 16:38:09
I think they could do better for Hader, but I'm not very high on Dalbec.

19 Nov 2021 20:46:57
They also have $36 million worth of OFers on their bench, lol. But sure, trading the worse one for SP depth is insane.

21 Nov 2021 12:20:28
What's your issue Chi Sox? I haven't been condescending with you, no need to do so with me.

I stated that I don't see the Brewers taking on Dallas Keuchel, even if they are able to dump Bradley. I'm sorry not everyone here agrees with your self-proclaimed massive intelligence.

22 Nov 2021 02:06:12
Natedog, you're now arguing with me from a different account. You've done this before and I find it hilarious that you need to create additional accounts to make it look like people agree with the things you say. LMAO. It's laughably childish, but have fun I guess, kiddo.

You don't need to tell me that Natedog and DavidStearnsGM posting here at the same time of day or that both accounts write in the same tone is some kind of coincidence. You have some internal issues to address, it appears.

Anyway, I don't think it makes sense to claim that the Brewers wouldn't take Kuechel, but they'll put 2 $18 million outfielders on their bench? If Cain isn't even starting, getting Keuchel for Bradley is a no brainer for MIL. JBJ would hardly ever get into games in your scenario. Keuchel still has the upside to be a productive back-end starter.

15 Nov 2021 14:21:20
Giants Offseason

(Update since Posey retired)

Non-tender Alex Dickerson & Tyler Beede.

Re-sign 1B Brandon Belt (accepts QO)- 1/18.4M
Re-sign RHP Kevin Gausman 4/84M


Sign RHP Dylan Bundy 1/6.5M
Sign RHP Justin Verlander 2/32M
Sign OF Seiya Suzuki 5/75M
Sign RHP Hector Neris 2/15M


Trade LHP Nick Swiney & 1B Garrett Frechette to Tampa Bay for LHP Ryan Yarbrough

C- Casali
1B- Belt
2B- Flores/La Stella
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
LF- Wade/Suzki
CF- Slater/Duggar
RF- Yastrzemski

Bench
C- Bart
1B/OF- Ruf
2B/3B- Flores/La Stella
OF- Wade/Suzuki
OF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation
1. Webb (R)
2. Gausman (R)
3. Verlander (R)
4. Bundy (R)
5. Yarbrough (L)

Bullpen
CP- Doval (R)
CP- McGee (L)
SU- Rogers (R)
RP- Neris (R)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- J. Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)

Estimated 2022 Payroll- $168 Million

Agree5 Disagree1

15 Nov 2021 17:50:36
Still think Gausman at 4/ 84 represents a substantial hometown discount. He's the best pitcher on the market over 4+ seasons, by a decent margin.

15 Nov 2021 21:15:44
Possibly. And I'd agree it's a hometown discount. He's made it very clear he wants to play in San Francisco, on several occasions.

16 Nov 2021 04:36:36
I think LAA comes after Gausman hard. Arte probably signs off on 5/ 110-120 easy. Trip to OC might not be too bad for $30 million extra.

16 Nov 2021 13:38:45
It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse.

But every indication, again, is that there's mutual interest in bringing him back. I just don't know if Zaidi is ready to drop 100M+ on Gausman. I'd rather him give it to Stroman.

16 Nov 2021 14:14:56
Agree to disagree there I guess. No chance in heck I'd take Stroman over Gausman.

Reports are that LAA is going over the QO to sign Synderaard. Major desperation mode - I think one of Gausman, Stroman or Ray is going there as well.

16 Nov 2021 14:51:39
I think my greater fear is that the Giants would be paying to get second half Kevin Gausman, which is why I don't want them going more than 4 years on him.

17 Nov 2021 13:32:33
This offseason should be interesting. To date, the biggest free agent contract they've handed out under Zaidi was to Tommy La Stella. It's clear they'll blow straight through that this winter, but I remain unconvinced that they are going to start giving out 100M contracts just yet.

18 Nov 2021 14:36:42
The Steamer projections for Stroman versus Gausman show why we shouldn't trust Steamer.

Gausman 2022: 191 IP, 10.02 K/ 9, 2.54 BB/ 9, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP.
Stroman 2022: 182 IP, 7.39 K/ 9, 2.64 BB/ 9, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP.

The problem I see is that Stroman's numbers, most importantly his ERA and FIP are elevated by 50 to 100 points, respectively from his 2021 numbers, and the last time Stroman was that bad over a full season was 2016. He was hurt in 2018. They don't reflect his career numbers very well.

Gausman's projections are elevated from 2021 as well, but they fall more in line with his career numbers.

Stroman's projections are obviously hurt by a gap in the algorithm, not having any numbers to input in 2020 due to his opt out, but it's odd to me that a guy who had 3.22 and 3.02 ERA seasons over his last two (and wasn't dealing with injuries) would somehow be projected as a 4.12 ERA guy the next season.

I think both are excellent pitchers. But I'd lean toward Stroman, mostly because he has a lengthier track record of success.

18 Nov 2021 17:20:03
Stroman's GB% is dropping and his 2021 BABIP was a career-low. For a pitcher that's so quality of contact-driven, that's a cause for concern. If he goes to a less defensively-efficient team (i. e. one that doesn't have Lindor and Baez up the middle), we could see the effect. I think he's a high-3s, low-4s ERA guy into his early 30s.

Remember that Steamer is merely a formula. It's not making any subjective determinations.

22 Nov 2021 13:34:41
Except when Darin Ruf is a -0.7 WAR player next year. Then you're more than willing to accept it as a determination.

22 Nov 2021 14:30:59
It would be better for your argument on Ruf if Steamer WAS making subjective determinations. Math tells us that you're severely overrating his future outlook.

29 Nov 2021 03:17:27
Yeah, 4/ 84 for Gausman was unsurprisingly never close, lol.

01 Dec 2021 20:03:36
Did Gausman go to the White Sox for 5/ 120?

Asking for a friend.

02 Dec 2021 03:21:10
Nope, but 5/ 120 was a lot closer than 4/ 84.

02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.

11 Nov 2021 21:06:37
White Sox Offseason 2021-2022

1.Sign Kevin Gausman (5 years, $120 million)

2. Sign Stephen Vogt (1 years, $1.5 million)

3. Sign Blake Parker (1 year, $1.5 million)

4. Trade #1:

White Sox Get:
OF Kevin Kiermaier
INF Joey Wendle
RHP Phoenix Sanders

Rays Get:
RHP Craig Kimbrel
2B/3B Bryan Ramos
OF Misael Gonzalez

5. Trade #2:

White Sox Get:
2B/OF Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Get:
1B/OF Andrew Vaughn
RHP Jared Kelley
OF Micker Adolfo
RHP Theo Denlinger

6. Trade #3:

White Sox Get:
OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
$4 million cash

Brewers Get:
LHP Dallas Keuchel

7. Trade #4

White Sox Get:
RHP Tyler Kinley

Rockies Get:
DH Yermin Mercedes
LHP Gil Luna

Lineup:
Tim Anderson SS
Yoan Moncada 3B
Luis Robert RF
Ketel Marte 2B
Jose Abreu 1B
Yasmani Grandal C
Eloy Jimenez DH
Kevin Kiermaier CF
Jackie Bradley Jr. / Adam Engel (platoon) LF

Bench:
Joey Wendle INF
Adam Engel / Jackie Bradley OF
Stephen Vogt C
Romy Gonzalez UTL

Rotation:
Lucas Giolito
Lance Lynn
Kevin Gausman
Dylan Cease
Michael Kopech

Bullpen:
Liam Hendriks
Aaron Bummer
Garrett Crochet
Blake Parker
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose Ruiz
Tyler Kinley
Phoenix Sanders / Ryan Burr

Payroll = ~$179 million

Thoughts?

Agree8 Disagree2

14 Nov 2021 19:21:55
Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on.

But also, 5/ 120 seems like an overpay for him.

14 Nov 2021 19:24:42
Also, that's Milwaukee paying $6.5M for Kimbrel, after the salaries clear. If the Brewers are honestly considering if they are willing to pay Josh Hader $10M, then there's very little chance they'll take on $6.5M for Kimbrel.

15 Nov 2021 13:01:17
Kimbrel goes to Tampa, not Milwaukee. Milwaukee makes Hader available every off season just in case someone wants to offer a massive overpay.

Also I really don't think $24 million over 5 years will end up being an overpay for Gausman. He should get the biggest deal for any FA SP on a 5 or 6 year deal.

15 Nov 2021 13:13:20
You're right, I misread the trade. I think it's even less likely the Brewers would want Keuchel. Bradley was a bad signing, but there's a better chance he'll be worth his salary than Keuchel would.

And I watched enough of Gausman to say that if the guy is going to get $20-25M, I want it on a 4-year deal. He has a higher chance of being a bust than most of the top-flight SP options on the market, in my opinion.

This isn't to say he's not good, just that I would proceed with caution. His 2nd Half was pretty rough, once teams figured out that splitter.

15 Nov 2021 13:47:12
You really think it's more likely that Bradley is worth $17.5 million than Keuchel is worth $18 million (or even $22 million with the added cash)? . I don't. I think there are more signs pointing to a Kuechel bounce back than Bradley, even if I'm not too confident in ether.

Milwaukee could use some SP depth too, more than they need to see if Bradley can bounce back.

15 Nov 2021 16:28:43
Milwaukee has a really solid rotation as it stands. They could use depth, but I'm not sure dropping 18M on pitching depth is ideal for them.

15 Nov 2021 17:40:15
Logic here is that Milwaukee would essentially pay Keuchel $22 million for 2022 who's projected 1.2 WAR by Steamer ($18.3 million per win)

They get rid of paying JBJ $17.5 million for 2022 who's projected 0.1 WAR by Steamer. ($175 million per win) .

They're buying a win above replacement for roughly $4.5 million, which is a little less than market value.

15 Nov 2021 21:19:07
I guess my point is: who is more likely to overcome a really bad season: JBJ or Keuchel? JBJ has elements to his game that are more likely, in my opinion, to overcome his projection. I don't think Keuchel reaches 1 WAR next season.

If the Brewers are that hamstrung by JBJ's salary, they could find more creative ways of clearing that salary. But they could find significantly better value for equal production than Keuchel.

15 Nov 2021 22:46:22
IDK where you're getting that JBJ is making 17.5M in 2022. Spotrac, B-R, Cots all have him at around 9.5-11M (B-R and Cots are 11M) . That's a sizable difference.

16 Nov 2021 04:31:55
I'd say the $8 million buyout for 2023 is fairly inevitable, no? It becomes a $4 million decision as otherwise he'd make $12 million, so I guess if he gets back to 2020 JBJ it's a possibility, but nothing in his profile suggests that.

So "paying him $17.5 million for 2022" isn't technically true, but that will probably be what he makes for just playing the 2022 season.

16 Nov 2021 13:42:59
You were including the buyout into that number. That's where the gap was. Thanks for clarifying that.

I have no reason to believe that JBJ will be better than his projection other than pure prediction on my behalf.

But I think if I'm given the choice between paying Jackie Bradley, Jr. $17.5M to play centerfield or Dallas Keuchel to be a #5 starter for me, I'd rather stick with JBJ. You can find a #5 starter for very cheap.

Not to mention, the Brewers already have a full rotation and could easily turn to Aaron Ashby, or even Brent Suter if they found themselves in a bind. No need to give Dallas Keuchel a boatload of money for a position of strength.

17 Nov 2021 16:59:43
Chi Sox,

Bradley's 8M buyout would go toward the 2023 payroll, not 2022. And the Brewers are unlikely to add a lot of payroll next year (their projection is already $140M) . Adding Keuchel makes the Crew add 18M for 2022, instead of being able to spread that total out over two seasons. They can address the 8M buyout and how to afford that in 2023.

17 Nov 2021 17:10:20
One last thing, you say that the White Sox are projected to pay Keuchel 18.3M per win, while the Brewers are paying JBJ $175M per win.

So why, exactly, are you suggesting the White Sox make this trade? I'm guessing, based on your history, that it's not because you think the White Sox just want to extend a hand of benevolence to the Brewers.

You're literally suggesting that the White Sox platoon a "$17.5M player" with a projected 0.1 WAR. Somehow, I'm not believing that you buy the projection on JBJ.

17 Nov 2021 17:12:00
Then again, the White Sox gave Adam Eaton $8M last season. So I'm not exactly accusing them of being able to make good decisions.

18 Nov 2021 14:41:42
Yes. The whole "my guy is clearly more valuable, but give me your guy instead" argument lacks conviction.

The question at hand is which would the Brewers rather have:

A replacement-level player on a 2-year, 17.5M deal (which is essentially what JBJ is) or the same on a 1-year, 18M deal?

A team with unlimited budget would take Keuchel. A small-market team would take JBJ.

18 Nov 2021 17:11:41
I think it would be better for both parties if Keuchel is with a different club in 2022. He's was not happy about not making the PS roster and his comments in 2020 about having to "teach the rest of the team how to win", given the circumstances surrounding when he got his ring, came off poorly to most of his teammates. Therefore I think from the Sox's standpoint it's worth it to take on a worse player and save only $4.5 million in the process to offload Keuchel.

Keuchel was also awful in 2021 and still was worth half a win. I think he'll be worth at least a win in 2022. The Sox have better replacement options for Keuchel and the Brewers have better replacement options for Bradley.

The logic that Bradley is on a 2-year, $17.5 million deal is incorrect. If Bradley plays 2022 and 2023 with the Brewers, he'll make $21.5 million, not $17.5 million. Bradley makes $17.5 million ONLY if he ONLY plays 2022 with the Brewers.

The Brewers would be paying $4.5 million for Keuchel, not $18 million, below market value. We have to be able to understand that Bradley is likely a replacement level player at best and the idea of a sunk cost. Whether you factor in Bradley's buyout to this year's books or next year's isn't that big of deal in my opinion. The money owed is the money owed. While they get Cain off the books in '23, they will also have more significant arb raises due to their best players (Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. )

18 Nov 2021 18:59:05
I said "essentially". Jackie Bradley, Jr. will make 9.5M in 2022, and his 8M buyout (which is a 99% sure thing at this rate) would factor into the 2023 payroll. That's 17.5M paid out over two years. Or one year of playing, and one year of dead money. However you prefer to look at it, the Brewers aren't paying out 17.5M in one season. They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal.

Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ.

So your justification makes sense for the White Sox, but not for Milwaukee, as they obviously don't like paying Bradley the money he's getting, why would they pay Keuchel his? At the very least, they can play Bradley at a position where depth is needed. The Brewers don't need a starting pitcher, especially not one as bad as Dallas Keuchel.

I think it's better that the Brewers try to see if there's any juice left in the Jackie Bradley Jr. lemon before they move on to another expensive, aging player.

David Stearns passes. Trust me, I'm David Stearns.

19 Nov 2021 14:49:09
"They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal. "

For a team not battling the luxury tax threshold, does his really matter? I would guess not. Getting out of that money sooner may be preferable given the heftier arb raises due in 2023.

"Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ. "

I outlined why I feel that while Keuchel is most likely at least 1 WAR better than JBJ in 2021, the trade still makes sense from the White Sox's standpoint. They could better use the LH premium OF defender anyway. Just read above. Keuchel is the better player - saying he's as much of a sunk cost as Bradley just really isn't true.

Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this. Keuchel's upside as a 5th starter is much greater than JBJ's, and it only costs $4.5 million. They have Tyrone Taylor who's a much better player at this point and needs PAs.

21 Nov 2021 12:30:41
"Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this"

Man, you really say something and then think it's uber intelligent, don't you? I say that because reading through these comments, it's common for both you and Natedog.

Look, would the Brewers love to get rid of the money they owe Jackie Bradley Jr.? Of course they would. But you're suggesting that Keuchel is going to be this guy that's totally worth taking on an extra 4.5M. I don't agree.

The best rate I've seen projected is that teams are spending around 6.5M per WAR in baseball right now. Keuchel needs to have a 2.8 win season to get net-zero. Per you, he's projected at 1.1 WAR in 2022. He's overpaid by 250%.

So while he may have a better outlook for 2022, according to you, he's not a guy the Brewers need. Just going by Steamer, Keuchel isn't even projected to be a top 7 starting pitcher for the Brewers in 2022.

I'd rather see if JBJ can do something. Keuchel has no spot on the Brewers.

Sorry that I refuse to praise your excellent baseball knowledge. I await your further hostile and condescending responses.

22 Nov 2021 02:13:33
Keuchel getting to 2.8 WAR in 2022 is much more likely than JBJ getting to 2.8 WAR. I don't think this is even a hot take. Keuchel's floor is probably 1 WAR, barring injury. JBJ could have to seriously fight to be replacement level.

Keuchel can easily slide into Brett Anderson's role/ innings. There's a spot there. Yet you have JBJ as Milwaukee's 5th outfielder and are telling me that Keuchel has no spot.

05 Nov 2021 12:28:04
NY Mets 2022 - 2023

Mets are stuck with Cano for 1 more year and deGrom is a huge ????
My strategy is a 2 year process with major focus of shoring up pitching with this offseason and give Baty, Vientos and Mauricio another year of devopelment

Mets move this offseason
1. Extend QO to Thor, Stroman and Conforto (I suspect that only Thor may accept then look to sign long term after a healthy year)

2. Sign 2 of these starters -
Gausman, Rondon, Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Stroman

3. Resign Loup

4. Sign Chris Taylor

2022
1. CF - Nimmo
2. SS - Lindor
3. 1B - Alonso
4. LF - D. Smith
5. 3b - Chris Taylor
6. RF - McNeil
7. C - McCann
8. 2b - Cano

Starters
Degrom? (if healthy need 6man rotation)
Rondon*
Ray* (2 from list above)
Thor
Walker
Carrasco

Pen
Diaz, May, Lugo, Loup, Castro, David Peterson, Trevor Williams, Drew Smith

2023 lineup
1. CF - Nimmo
2. SS - Lindor
3. RF - Chris Taylor
4. 1B - Alonso
5. 3b - Baty
6. LF - Vientos / McNeil
7. 2b - Mauricio / McNeil
8. C - McCann

Agree0 Disagree0

05 Nov 2021 13:09:14
Offering Syndergaard a QO would be very surprising.

05 Nov 2021 13:52:10
Will the Mets even have a guy leading the front office to make these moves?

05 Nov 2021 14:54:04
What happens if Stroman, Syndergaard and Conforto all accept the QO?

05 Nov 2021 16:00:02
Stroman can't be offered a QO, on conditions of him being offered one already. (Giants are in the same boat with Gausman)

05 Nov 2021 19:02:54
facts on the front office. lol

good call on stroman. QO doesn't apply.

if both thor and conforto accept its not a bad things.

07 Nov 2021 12:06:21
I'm kinda blown away by Syndergaard getting a QO. He should accept (and I suspect he will) .

07 Nov 2021 07:04:23
When will Mets, realize if they ever want truly win . Rather try buy all best players, the reason the braves been so good for so long was they drafted and develop there own players and then when they where all ready supplement there roster with right pieces to when the World Series . This goes the same to the Yankees and red Sox and all other teams, teams that win develops there own player then when they are truly ready have a Core player on there team they had one or two pieces, if look The braves back when they won all those division titles and fact the been so good now and won the series was they had Bulk of the roster they develop their own players and then supplement the pieces that they need to win. . Instead going for the quick fix do it right way and Mets and other teams might have better chance in the future, I know this not a Popular. View but it’s how it works, stop trying buy a championship it doesn’t work .

 


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