MLB talk 2

16 Aug 2021 14:30:13
With a month and a half of season left, let's make some playoff predictions.

AL East- Rays
AL Central- White Sox
AL West- Astros
AL Wild Card #1- Boston
AL Wild Card #2- Yankees

NL East- Phillies
NL Central- Brewers
NL West- Giants
NL Wild Card #1- Dodgers
NL Wild Card #2- Reds

Playoffs
AL WC- Red Sox over Yankees
NL WC- Dodgers over Reds

NLDS 1v4- Giants over Dodgers in 5.
N.

02 Aug 2021 19:07:25
I felt it might be prudent for Chi Sox to see some updated stats on the Ruf vs. Abreu situation. The quote from her was, "my guess is that Abreu will now start to create a gap with Ruf. He's a notorious 2nd half hitter and he'll likely be getting 4 new lineup-mates for added protection."

So, let's get a check up on those numbers, post ASG break, shall we?

Jose Abreu- 67 PAs, .182/.765 (OPS), 112 wRC+, 3 HR

Darin Ruf- 48 PA (much higher than the 2:5 ratio), .310/1.015, 171 wRC+, 3 HR



More gemzz: "my guess is that Abreu will now start to create a gap with Ruf"

Current WAR, as of August 2nd:

Abreu- 1.4 (down 0.3 since last update)
Ruf- 1.9 (up 0.5 since last update)

Odd how the "notorious 2nd Half hitter is trending downwards, despite playing all but 6 of his 25 2nd Half games against playoff caliber teams. And the "obviously worse" Darin Ruf continues to actually create a gap, despite playing 40% of his 2nd half games against the Astros and Dodgers.

Once again, how are you so bad at this???

06 Aug 2021 15:58:20
Yeah Abreu hasn't looked good at the plate since the All-Star break, yet still has a 128 wRC+.

But he's clearly better then Ruf because over their last 2 games:

Abreu: 305 wRC+
Ruf: 9 wRC+

He's literally 296% better, Nate.

28 Aug 2021 01:11:01
LOL. It's cute how hard you try.

Hey, how are those White Sox doing? Will they even have the 5th best record in baseball entering October?

I was confidently told, by you, that they were basically the Dodgers and the cream of the crop in the American League.

I come back to one of my common refrains to you: How on earth are you so bad at this?

28 Aug 2021 17:24:56
The White Sox are looking pretty good. They've scored 27 runs in their last 2 games.

For all contending teams, no team's last 25 games mean less than the White Sox's.

Would you like to give us an update on the Abreu vs. Ruf fWAR race?

22 Sep 2021 20:03:14
Jose Abreu, in 619 plate appearances- 2.9 WAR
Darin "Weak Side Platoon Player" Ruf, in 300 PAs? 2.3 WAR.

That's right, a weak side platoon player has still almost matched the reigning MVP in WAR, despite being given LESS THAN 50% of the plate appearances.

Again, one should wonder how Darin Ruf would play in 600 plate appearances. you know it'd surpass Abreu by a laughable margin.

And just as a remnder, the White Sox paid Jose Abreu 17M to get 2.9 WAR. The San Francisco Giants paid Darin Ruf 1.275 to get 2.3 WAR.

It's not even been a close call. Darin Ruf has been the better player in 2021. He was the better player, despite having less than half of Abreu's plate appearances.

I'm sorry that you, once again, made a fool of yourself in this ongoing debate. I really am.

But if you try hard enough, I'm sure you can supply yourself with some hilariously convoluted, cherry-picked argument to tell me that Jose Abreu is better because he has 100+ RBIs or something.

I'm sure you'll think of something nonsensical. You always do.

25 Sep 2021 18:20:27
Classic Natedog. The goal posts shift to fit whatever narrative you’re looking for.

Remember when Ruf had a higher fWAR than Abreu for that short period of time? Your rationale was that Ruf was clearly better and all you needed as evidence was a higher fWAR. Now, as Abreu has predictably surpassed Ruf as the better overall player, your rationale has shifted to $/ WAR when comparing single-season 1 v. 1.

Ruf’s 2+ WAR as a weak side platoon piece is impressive, but he’s a bench role player on a team that has maximized his effectiveness.

Then you conveniently omit that fact that the Giants are paying Brandon Belt $16 million to just be the strong side of that platoon.

If Ruf could do what Abreu does over the same amount of PAs, why wouldn’t the Giants pay him that $2 million to do so? They could save a ton of money by not paying Belt AND acquire an additional roster spot. Spoiler alert, he wouldn’t be nearly as effective. Again, it would be like me projecting Liam Hendriks’ success over a starter’s workload of innings. It’s unrealistic.

So, by using literally the exact same logic that you used when the facts fit your narrative, Abreu is a better baseball player than Ruf due to his current superior fWAR value.

30 Jul 2021 20:26:03
Nate you were spot on for KB. Giants with an absolute steal. Cubs made out really solid on Kimbrel, Rizzo, Baez but the return for KB was subpar. I was wrong about that one.

31 Jul 2021 03:24:45
I was wrong about Kimbrel, for what it's worth. Someone DID offer a huge return for him.

I'd be very curious to know what other teams offered for him, and if anyone offered anywhere close to Hahn's offer.

01 Aug 2021 13:59:08
Pepiot and Miller from the Dodgers was reported by multiple “insiders” as being discussed. Whether that’s what the Cubs wanted or what was actually on the table is anyone’s guess.

26 Jul 2021 14:02:10
Interesting package that Pittsburgh got for Frazier. First reaction is "wow, that's light" - 1 40 and 2 35+s per what FanGraphs had preseason.

But from what Heyman reported, Pittsburgh loved Marcano (wanted him in the Musgrove deal). Ultra-high contact guy, but only has a 101 wRC+ in AAA this year. I guess they see his 90th percentile outcome as what Frazier is now, but more than likely he's a utility type.

Milliano has 59 punchies in 30 innings in A-ball but also 25 walks. Only 21 y/o, must have exciting stuff and an interesting relief prospect.

Suwinski has really broken out at AA this year and is only 22.

If this was the best offer they got for Frazier, than teams must be scared of a BABIP fall off for Frazier, with Pitt included because they could've just held him and dealt in the offseason.

Still, with versatility, offensive and defensive value, and the extra season of control, I would've thought they got more. He's not going to be a .325 hitter, but launch angle optimization is a true talent in my opinion. .290-.300 with an .800 OPS is what I think San Diego is getting for maybe 2 40s and a 40+.

26 Jul 2021 18:41:41
I think most teams probably saw straight through Frazier's season.

Unless, of course, Pittsburgh feels like Marcano is some 60-grade prospect.

06 Jul 2021 15:10:25
Man, this site got quiet. Especially Chi Sox. Has anyone checked in on him lately? Is he coping with the fact that the Giants, who according to him were 5-6 years away from contending, have the league's best record?

Or that Darin Ruf is hitting better than literally every guy on the White Sox right now?

Now that I look at it, their best hitter right now would barely be ahead of LaMonte Wade, Jr. (who the Giants got for the recently DFA'd Shaun Anderson) .

Wade, mind you, is ranked 7th on the Giants hitting.

It's remarkable that Zaidi is outperforming the #2 GM of the Year (2020 Edition) with his rebuilding club. Rick Hahn should take some lessons.

12 Jun 2021 23:39:08
{Ed's Note - Ed001 has posted a new article entitled, Shocks Part 1 - Mike Tyson v Buster Douglas

10 Mar 2021 15:18:45
{Ed's Note - Ed001 has posted a new article entitled, Sporting Villains Torture And Concrete Footballs, How Not To Motivate The Iraq Team By Uday Hussein

18 Feb 2021 15:29:20
As Spring Training begins, here are my projected standings for the 2021 season:

AL East
NY Yankees- 96-66
Toronto- 93-69
Tampa Bay- 88-74
Boston- 76-86
Baltimore- 60-102

AL Central
Chicago- 93-69
Minnesota- 92-70
Cleveland- 85-77
Kansas City- 71-91
Detroit- 63-99

AL West
Oakland- 91-71
LA Angels- 88-74
Houston- 87-75
Seattle- 74-88
Texas- 64-98

NL East
Atlanta- 92-70
NY Mets- 90-72
Philadelphia- 81-81
Miami- 75-87
Washington- 75-87

NL Central
St. Louis- 91-71
Chicago- 84-78
Milwaukee- 82-80
Cincinnati- 78-84
Pittsburgh- 58-104

NL West
LA Dodgers- 102-60
San Diego- 90-72
San Francisco- 79-83
Arizona- 76-86
Colorado- 56-106

Playoffs:
AL WC- Toronto over Minnesota
NL WC- San Diego over NY Mets

ALDS
NY Yankees over Toronto, 3-1
Oakland over Chicago, 3-0

NLDS
LA Dodgers over San Diego, 3-2
Atlanta over St. Louis, 3-0

ALCS
NY Yankees over Oakland, 4-2
Atlanta over LA Dodgers, 4-3

World Series
Atlanta over NY Yankees 4-3

18 Feb 2021 16:20:11
And no, Chi Sox, I'm not trolling when I suggest the Athletics sweep the White Sox in the first round of the playoffs.