30 Nov 2018 17:59:17
Mets
Nolan Arenado

Rockies
Jeff McNeil
Andrew Giminez
Andrew Church


The Mets are looking for a RH power bat. The Rockies have a need at 2B. With LeMehieu a FA, the Rockies could use McNeil at 2B and call Rodgers up to play 3B.

1.) 30 Nov 2018
30 Nov 2018 18:52:54
If Arenado became available, the price would be about 10 times as much as you have the Mets paying.

2.) 01 Dec 2018
01 Dec 2018 11:12:18
Not so sure I agree with your sentiment at all.

Arrenado is set to make around 26M in his last year of arbitration, and even as a 5 win player, that's only 20M surplus.

As of September, McDaniels and Longenhagen declared that McNeil was considered a 50FV player. By the end of the year, McNeil had produced 2.7fWAR in half a season in the majors and is projected for 3 fWAR according to Steamer in 2019, with 6 years of control remaining.

Giminez is the Mets top prospect (#30 prospect according to Fangraphs) . If you conservatively consider McNeil to be in the 75-100 range, that's roughly 58M of surplus value alone.

That should be more than enough. Teams are smarter and more analytically inclined nowadays. To suggest it would take 10 times more than almost 3 times Arrenado's surplus value is laughable.

3.) 01 Dec 2018
01 Dec 2018 15:30:41
Surplus value is largely a farce. It's based solely on projections, which are subjective and vary from team to team, and is determined at a team level by positional availability, organizational depth, etc. For example: the Braves, who have Albies, likely won't value a 22-year-old 2B prospect as highly as the Mariners would.

Surplus value is good for one thing: putting a very, very subjective value on a prospect in a trade.

And your retort largely misses the point: trades aren't made in a vacuum.

If Arenado becomes available, the price tag rises, simply by the demand for a guy like him. You don't think teams like the Cardinals or the Phillies wouldn't go crazy, even a little stupid for a guy like Arenado? They'd blow past this price tag so quickly.

Not to mention, seeing what the Mets are (potentially) doing in the Cano trade, let's not pretend BVW has any idea what he's doing. If anything, it'd be HIM that does the extreme overpay.

4.) 02 Dec 2018
01 Dec 2018 20:40:35
Arenado is a 1 year rental which decreases his trade value.

5.) 03 Dec 2018
03 Dec 2018 14:27:10
thestatbook

Not sure if you realize he is a FA after the season. Show me a trade for an upcoming FA, in which a player received the value you're stating. McNeil and Giminez plus a lower prospect is right around what it would take. If you think a team is going to give "10x more", then you do not know how trades work.

6.) 03 Dec 2018
03 Dec 2018 15:22:43
Show me a player who hit 38 HR, 132 wRC+, was worth 5.7 WAR; isn't owed a ridiculous amount of money and also plays a position where the only decent FA options are Machado (super expensive) and Mike Moustakas (super over-rated) who has hit the trade market.

Show me that player and I'll concede my point.

Arenado, if he were traded (don't worry, he won't be), would be the best player up for grabs, and he'd be more desirable than Machado or Harper on any club if for nothing other than his clubhouse presence and his abilities. The guy is amazing.

The "10x more" was an exaggeration. I figure you know how those work? The point was, there's no way that's the best Arenado gets the Rockies.

Then again, this is all moot when you consider that the Rockies are probably going to sign Arenado to a long-term extension to keep him in Denver his whole career (this move was signaled last year when Arenado dumped Scott Boras and went with the Wasserman Group who have historically worked favorably to extend star players) .