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02 Dec 2021 04:02:57
JBJ and lesser prospects for Hunter Renfroe.

To think, the Brewers missed their chance at acquiring Dallas Keuchel and his 18M salary!

Dang. Their loss.

Believable3 Unbelievable0

02 Dec 2021 15:00:09
Could have saved two pretty good prospects! Good thing Milwaukee's farm system is already elite.

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02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.

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29 Nov 2021 16:36:11
White Sox-Braves trade:

Braves get: Craig Kimbrel

White Sox get: Ronald Acuna, Jr.

How could the Braves ever turn down getting a top 10 reliever in the league for a guy with a busted up ACL?

Chi Sox logic.

Believable7 Unbelievable3

29 Nov 2021 18:52:57
Guys, Natedog is really struggling to cope right now. He's posting ridiculous trades and slapping my name on it, creating friends on this forum to agree with him because his takes are that bad, and his team even lost Kevin Gausman after I was correct about his market.

Let's support him in this time of need.

Agree4 Disagree6

30 Nov 2021 16:25:28
Funny thing is, this is more realistic than literally any trade proposal Chi Sox has ever made.

Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys.

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30 Nov 2021 17:54:37
Which trade are you alluding to, Nathan?

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30 Nov 2021 19:16:10
Jean Segura for Craig Kimbrel LMAOOOO.

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01 Dec 2021 14:24:30
Kevin Gausman for $84 million LMAOOOO. Remember, he said he wanted to return to SF. I was reliably told by you.

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01 Dec 2021 18:38:19
I mean, he said it in multiple interviews. Grant Brisbee, Alex Pavolovic, Kerry Crowley, and Andrew Baggerly ALL mentioned the comment.

He then further indicated that his feelings were hurt that the Giants weren't as hot on his trail as he wished they were.

It turns out, the Toronto Blue Jays offered more money than the Giants were, and more years (rumor mill circling that the Giants offered 4/ 90 to Gausman) .

So saying that Gausman wanted to return wasn't made up gobbledygook like we're used to seeing from you. It was a quote straight from the man himself.

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01 Dec 2021 19:12:16
Gausman's quote to The Athletic:

“To be honest, I don’t think the Giants expected me to pitch as well as I did this year, ” Gausman told The Athleitc. “So I’m not putting my eggs into one basket. I’m trying to focus on what I can control right now, which is basically nothing. But yeah, I hope they’ll call me. And honestly, if they don’t, my feelings probably will be hurt because I felt I was a part of something special. ”

His quote to MLB's Maria Guardado:

"“I've kind of hopped around the last couple of years. I felt like I made some good relationships and then had to leave. I just know what I'm getting myself into, know what to expect. I talked from day one just about how great everybody treated me and my family here. That definitely was part of it, but I’ve really enjoyed my time here so far. I really liked all my teammates. "

He mentioned, on video, in an October 3rd Tweet from @NBCSGiants that he "grew up a Giants fan. "

But yes, please continue on how I was one year off on my contract prediction.

But hey, how'd that Joey Wendle for Craig Kimbrel trade go for the White Sox?

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01 Dec 2021 19:47:34
So if you're keeping track at home, we have:

Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) .

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Wendle and Kiermaier.

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura (a trade literally mocked by a guy from MLB. com)

We have: Kevin Gausman to the White Sox.

We have: Dallas Keuchel for Jackie Bradley Jr.

And my woes were that I suggested the Giants don't offer more than a 4-year deal to Gausman.

More for the record:

"Although, 76 wins is a good current 2021 projection for Zaidi's Giants. So he may be right on track for a playoff berth in 2027."

You were only SIX SEASONS OFF, my guy. Jesus, what a take that was.

For someone with your history of being so laughably off on this kind of stuff, you sure do have a puffed up head.

But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here.

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01 Dec 2021 21:26:09
You're trashing my offseason plan because the predictions haven't hit (not meant to be predictions btw, simply the path I would've pursued), yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO.

"Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) "

This was not in my offseason plan. This was a far-fetched idea that I brought up. 3-team deals with that many players hardly ever happen.

"But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here. "

It's not that you missed on one player - all of us will predict more wrong than we do right. However, it was you believing that I was crazy for proposing Gausman playing somewhere other than SF and for offering him 5 for $120 million (he signed for 5 for $110 million for the record; a lot closer than 4 for $84 million)

It may be time to switch over to your David Stearns account full time.

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02 Dec 2021 00:15:13
I never once said you were "crazy. " My exact quote:

:Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on. "

I feel that's a pretty generous, healthy and contributive comment, don't you?

I also said, "It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse. "

Once again, I open the door to me being willing to be wrong.

Going along with a player's very word that he wants to return to the Giants seems like a pretty solid reason to predict he returns.

It's actually based in reality. Turns out, the interest from the Giants wasn't to Gausman's liking.

I never even remotely hinted that you were crazy. You're just looking for a win now LMAO. And I get it, with how hysterically bad your other ideas were, I'd be desperate too.

Maybe it's time you create a new account and forget the "Chi Sox" account ever existed.

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02 Dec 2021 00:22:33
"yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO. "

So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint?

Also, for your ideas being, by your own account, "far fetched", you sure get a bit testy when people challenge it, don't you? Even you acknowledge the truth (which is rare, but we'll take what we can get), and yet, you can't handle when others disagree. Not that I'm surprised, but it'd be nice to see *SOME* improvement over the years.

Also, your super intelligent "Kimbrel for Segura" trade just got shot in the foot by Dave Dombrowski LMAO.

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02 Dec 2021 03:27:21
Did he actually reference Kimbrel or are you talking about him saying they're "not necessarily looking for a closer at this point"?

I think the Phillies have a really solid team - one that could easily win a division in 2022 if they make a few improvements. They need a shortstop badly and their pen is quite obviously a glaring hole. They also lost Neris who'd pretty damn good in his own right. While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer.

Adding Kimbrel (even if it was for Segura) and let's say, Story, Rosario and a CF via trade makes them a lot more interesting.

"So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint? "

No, you missed on Gausman, Bundy, Verlander, and Neris too. They could still get Suzuki I guess, but I really think he'll be a Mariner. The Yarbrough trade is also theoretically still in play.

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02 Dec 2021 13:53:50
"While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer. "

Yes, the Phillies should be unhappy with a closer who had a 2.45 ERA in 25 IP with the Dodgers in 2021. What they should really be looking for is to pay 160% more than Knebel for a guy who had a 5.09 ERA in 23 IP with the White Sox!

And they should give up their best middle infielder, which is also a glaring need, to acquire him!

I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero.

I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him.

Hahn would have been wiser to buy out his option and use the savings (15M) to just acquire a 2B via free agency. And if he really wanted to keep Kimbrel, I'm pretty sure he could have had him for a lot cheaper.

But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it.

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02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.

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02 Dec 2021 15:34:14
"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

Lol, going from "absolutely not"

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something"

to "well maybe"!

Also, let me know when we're going to stop grading relievers with ERA over 25 inning samples. Knebel, who has thrown 39 innings over the last 3 seasons, just got $10 million. But Kimbrel's lack of recent consistent track record kills his trade value? GTFOH. Kimbrel is a better pitcher and was never playing 2022 for much cheaper than $15 million.

Second base is not a glaring need for Philly, it's short. They have three guys that can play second for most of 2022.

"I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero. "

His 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021. Please though, tell me more about the reliability of ERA, especially over tiny samples.

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02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!

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28 Nov 2021 21:43:34
Ideal Yankees 2022 Roster (Highly Unrealistic because not all of them can happen but these should be their targets)

C Salvador Perez
1B Matt Olson
2B Gleyber Torres
3B D.J. LeMahieu
SS Corey Seager
LF Joey Gallo
CF Ketel Marte
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton


C Gary Sanchez
IF Gio Urshela
OF Kevin Pillar
SS Andrelton Simmons


Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
Luis Castillo
Jameson Taillon
Jordan Montgomery


Domingo German
Nestor Cortes Jr.
Chad Green
Jonathan Loaisiga
Joely Rodriguez
Clay Holmes
Josh Hader
Aroldis Chapman

Believable0 Unbelievable4

27 Nov 2021 15:05:57
Wow! Three great signing by the Mets. Cahna and Escobar were very good value signings. even with no other signings I like their lineup. who know they may still get Baez but

Now Mets need 2 starters.
Love to see Gausman and Stroman

1. CF - Marte
2. LF - Nimmo
3. SS - Lindor
4. 1b - Alonso
5. 3b - Escobar
6. 2b - McNeil
7. RF - Cahna
8. DH - Cano
9. C - McCann

6 man rotation?
deGrom*, Stroman, Gausman, Carrasco, Walker, Megill / Peterson

Believable1 Unbelievable1

27 Nov 2021 19:18:55
Not saying it's impossible, but adding Stroman AND Gausman would put their payroll around $250 million without addressing their bullpen. I think they get one of those guys, a cheaper back-end guy, and then allocate some money to their bullpen. Cohen isn't going to be too discouraged by any tax threshold it appears tho.

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28 Nov 2021 00:04:41
Robinson Cano for Craig Kimbrel would clear $8M for Cohen, and probably falls more in line with what the White Sox can get for Kimbrel.

Agree9 Disagree1

28 Nov 2021 03:15:31
Apparently the Sox currently have a choice between Cano and Lindor.

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25 Nov 2021 14:00:58
Free Agents predictions for fun:

Correa: Tigers
C.Seager: Yankees
Bryant: Mets
Semien: Mariners
Freeman: Braves
Ray: Blue Jays
Scherzer: Dodgers
Gausman: Angles
Stroman: Mets
Marte: Astros
Story: Rangers
Taylor: Giants
Baez: Angels
Castellanos: Marlins
Suzuki: Mariners
Kershaw: Rangers
Jansen: Blue Jays
R. Iglesias: Angels
Rizzo: Yankees
Conforto: White Sox
J. Gray: Yankees
Schwarber: Red Sox
Cruz: Brewers
Canha: Guardians
Neris: Royals
Kluber: Twins
Rodon: Rays
Pineda: Twins
Grienke: Braves
Knebel: Phillies
McHugh: Dodgers
D. Duffy: Brewers
Raley: Astros
K. Seager: Blue Jays
Soler: Phillies
E. Rosario: Braves
Kikuchi: Cubs
Avi Garcia: Guardians
E. Escobar: Nationals
Pham: Reds
L. Garcia: Blue Jays
J. Kelly: Phillies
Pederson: A's
Simmons: Reds
Tepera: Mets
Gomes: Guardians
Villar: Nationals
Cobb: Giants
C. Hernandez: Red Sox
M. Duffy: A's
J. Iglesias: Astros
McCutchen: Padres
Galvis: Rockies
C. Frazier: Cubs
Pillar: Tigers
O. Herrera: Rangers
Tyler Anderson: Reds
Calhoun: Rockies
Bundy: Yankees
Cueto: Tigers
Chafin: Red Sox
Harrison: Guardians
Odor: A's
Solano: Orioles
Gardner: Phillies
Dickerson: Nationals
Vogt: White Sox
Tsutsugo: Pirates
Fowler: Mets
Eaton: Pirates
Moreland: A's
Carpenter: Rockies
Davies: Orioles
Smyly: Rockies
Wacha: A's
Kim: Reds
Hamels: Angels
Paxton: Orioles
JA Happ: Nationals
Lester: Mets
C. Martinez: Pirates
M. Franco: Dbacks
M. Gonzalez: Cubs
B. Anderson: Rangers
T. Shaw: Orioles

and some trade destinations:

Olsen: Dodgers
Chapman: Rays
Segura: White Sox
Kiermaier: Phillies
DeJong: Twins
Ahmed: Phillies
Margot: Braves
Wendle: Cubs
Gregorius: Dbacks

Manaea: White Sox
Bassitt: Giants
Kimbrel: Phillies
Sonny Gray: Mariners

Believable2 Unbelievable4

27 Nov 2021 16:03:33
I can’t fully express how laughably bad a Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura trade is for Philadelphia.

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27 Nov 2021 19:06:16
Rumor is it would be Kimbrel for Segura AND Alvarado, lol. Kimbrel is a top-10, top-15 RP and the Phillies have Stott knocking at the door. Given also how bad they need bullpen help, it makes sense for them. I know you absolutely hate Kimbrel tho.

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28 Nov 2021 00:03:22
LOL. "#White Sox have interest in Jean Segura and Jose Alvarado from the #Phillies in a potential Craig Kimbrel trade. " From "MLB Nerds" twitter.

This is right up there with that Bennett Karoll "rumor" you believed. It's so outlandish that I'd expect even you to reject it.

IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects.

And if Rick Hahn really thinks he could pull this off (I don't believe he actually does, you just believed a made up rumor from a Twitter account with 3K followers), then he might be clinically insane.

I'm not the president of the Rick Hahn fan club, but even ole' Rick "Give Adam Eaton $8M" Hahn isn't this dumb.

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28 Nov 2021 00:32:45
Also, in what world is Craig Kimbrel a "top 10 RP"? Did you take a time machine to 2016?

We're talking about a guy who, from 2019-2021 had a 3.67 ERA, and that's low because of 4 months of 2021.

Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021, his ERA from 2019-2021 is 5.64, with a FIP nearing 7.00, a 2.44 HR/ 9, and 5.19 BB/ 9.

Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. Not Rick Hahn. He picked up a 16M option on him!

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28 Nov 2021 03:00:04
Kimbrel had the 6th best fWAR, 4th best K-BB%, 9th best xwOBA. He's pretty firmly in the top-10 to 15 RP conversation. lol. cry.

"Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. "

Guys with almost 33 K-BB% don't get DFA'd my man. It just simply isn't true. Try again.

"Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021."

"Sans a 412 PA stretch from Darin Ruf, he really sucks. "

"IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects. "

If you actually, genuinely believe this statement and aren't trolling, you really just don't know the game. This is idiotic. C'mon dude.

Hahn is going to get really nice value for Kimbrel (if he is in fact traded), and you're going to be absolutely furious, which I find hilarious.

Also, nothing on here is as outlandish as you creating an additional account so someone would agree with you. That's just plain sad, David Stearns. And this isn't the first time, astonishingly.

It's still very telling that you think Hahn missing on Adam Eaton on a one-year flyer is a big "gotcha moment". If that's what your evidence is for him being a lousy GM in recent years, then you may want to re-evaluate your stance.

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29 Nov 2021 14:43:45
Literally no one is crying, except maybe me crying laughing at you thinking that Craig Kimbrel, who, over the last 3 seasons, has been good for a span of 4 months, is somehow a Top 15 reliever in baseball.

And that you think that the best you can get for a Top 15 reliever is an overpaid middle infielder.

You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. He's an awful reliever and it was a comical mistake for Rick Hahn to pick up that option, and now, White Sox fans want out of it.

Hint: If you had a competent GM, it would have cost $1M to get rid of him. Heck, they could have easily signed a "Top 15 RP" for around 5-7M AAV, if even that.

But please, post another "rumor" from a Twitter account with 3K who pretends to have sources. I'm sure it's super substantive!

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29 Nov 2021 16:34:08
"You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. "

Apparently referencing commonly used pitching stats and everyday comprehensive metrics like fWAR is now considered mental gymnastics. Your rationale is literally "trust me, bro - Kimbrel stinks'.

Your plummet on this site is unreal. You've resorted to fighting against numbers. It's a really tough scene.

Mind you, Nate, you are the same person who fought tooth and nail to argue that Darin Ruf was a better baseball player than Jose Abreu after a good 400 PA stretch.

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30 Nov 2021 15:51:42
These projections are really going well for you LMAOOOO.

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30 Nov 2021 18:37:22
Projections like these are tremendously difficult. Get one wrong, and a domino effect can start, especially with the top guys. That said, you correctly predicted only three a year ago. I predicted destinations for almost 100 players and you're laughing at them 5 days later, lol.

I've gotten Tsutsugo and Cobb correct and Knebel may be close.

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30 Nov 2021 19:17:54
It probably helps that the Alex Cobb signing was rumored last week, well before this post, don't you think?

And no, it's not "that hard", I'm sitting comfortably in the top 20 over at the MLBTR contest.

In fairness, though, this is probably quite difficult for you. You seem to have a knack for not getting predictions right around here.

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01 Dec 2021 14:38:49
Frazier to the Cubs, just like that.

You're top 20 on the MLBTR and you apparently posted my take in a renowned actuarial subreddit that proves me wrong.

Try sharing some links so we don't have to take your worthless word for the things you say.

"it's not "that hard""

You were 3 for 20 last year bub. LOL.

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01 Dec 2021 19:23:11
"Nate Skomski" on the MLBTR leaderboard my dude. Dropped down after the Javier Baez deal, but overall, 7/ 25.

Go check r/ actuary, on a post back around November 4th. I've tried to submit the link multiple times and it never gets posted, but it was on there as of the time of posting this comment.

And while we're waiting for links, I need to see a reliable source on that Segura-for-Kimbrel "rumor". Not a tweet from MLB Nerds, not from Bennett Karoll, but from someone who actually has a history of journalism and making these calls.

Please, when you have one, send it my way.

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01 Dec 2021 20:54:26
Knebel to Philly. Check.

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01 Dec 2021 21:09:02
Nobody "credible" has mentioned Kimbrel for Segura (at least I don't think), but that doesn't mean I can't propose it. Me calling it a rumor based on anonymous account was my response to you over-hyperbolizing the proposal.

You claim Kimbrel is trash despite stats that say the exact opposite.

I checked r/ actuary - nothing there even remotely related to baseball. Maybe it magically got deleted. What did you title the post?

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02 Dec 2021 14:17:20
"Correlation and Causation in Baseball Argument". That was the title of the post. So, if it's not there for you, I can't help you any further.

As far as Craig Kimbrel goes: the dude was good for exactly a 4-month stretch. 2019: hot garbage. 2020: hot garbage. Second half of 2021: hot garbage.

In other words, over the last 3 seasons, Kimbrel was good for about 38% of his innings, and absolutely terrible for the other 62%.

From 2019-2021, he was worth 1.2 WAR. His WAR in the first half of 2021 with the Cubs represented 183% of that total!

183% of his production was based on 38% of all his innings. The other 62%? He was worth -1.0 WAR.

You're trying to tell everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still great because he had a solid 4-month span of baseball, and you're hoping we don't look at what he did with the White Sox, or with the Cubs in 2019 and 2020. Kimbrel reverted to that same pitcher, almost overnight.

And for as good as Craig Kimbrel is, you and the other White Sox fans on Twitter and other places seem hellbent on getting rid of him! Just months ago, you were touting the importance of having a dominant bullpen, and now, you're suggesting they sacrifice that dominance for a role they can fill for dirt cheap in the likes of Donovan Solano or Josh Harrison (who probably have as much value as Segura, just on potential contract alone) .

You don't trade an elite, top-15 relief pitcher for a 32-year-old 2B making 14M a year.

For as cocky as you act on here, the fact you don't know this is quite embarrassing. I'm actually embarrassed for you.

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02 Dec 2021 14:55:47
Here's a question for you:

If you're looking at investing in stock, and you see that the company made $1 billion last year, would you invest?

Before you answer, some further information. The company made $1 billion dollars from January to June, and exactly zero dollars from July to December. Still interested?

More information: the company was actually LOSING money, in fact, close to $500M from the two years prior. Now how interested are you?

I'd reckon you wouldn't be very interested, and for good reason.

This is Craig Kimbrel. He was really, really, really good for a brief period, but overall, he's been really bad. And trying to sell him like he made a billion dollars, thus he's worth a billion now is a really bad take, even for your standards, James.

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02 Dec 2021 20:25:13
Nothing like a good ole' Natedog analogy to really drive home a bad take.

It is absolutely astonishing how you are saying that Kimbrel has only been good over a four month stretch and therefore is horrible but wholeheartedly believe that Darin Ruff is better than Jose Abreu. You will really believe anything as long as it benefits your argument and makes the Chicago White Sox look bad.

Kimbrel had a very good 2021 season.

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18 Nov 2021 19:17:37
Uh Oh!

Wander Franco might be close to a pre-arb extension with Tampa Bay. Will Erik Neander have to address the associated racism that comes with giving an early-20s minority superstar $100 million?

This also reflects poorly on those that will continue to support the Rays - low moral character.

We thank Natedog for bringing this travesty to light.

Believable7 Unbelievable0

18 Nov 2021 21:12:57
Dude, give it a rest.

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18 Nov 2021 21:27:10
Learning from Rick Hahn, who revolutionized this racist act. Man, he truly has infested the league.

Next thing you know, these teams are going to hire drunk-drivers as managers!

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19 Nov 2021 14:36:40
There it is, the admission that Hahn's success has had an effect on the league. We're done here.

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21 Nov 2021 12:18:24
Yes, Hahn's racism has so far infected the Major Leagues.

Indeed, I agree. We're done here.

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23 Nov 2021 17:02:29
Reportedly $223 million for Wander, wow. The racist Rays should have kept him at the league minimum for his own good and not forced him to sign this massive deal.

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23 Nov 2021 18:14:02
You understand there’s a colossal difference between $50M and $223M, right?

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24 Nov 2021 16:20:26
Approx. $173 million. What's your point?

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17 Nov 2021 18:59:00
Brewers Offseason

1. Sign Collin McHugh (RHP) for 2 years, $15M.

2. Trade:

Milwaukee gets: Clint Frazier (OF) NY Yankees get: Cade Lemons (RHP)

3. Sign Kurt Suzuki (C) for 1 year, $2M

4. Trade:
Boston gets Josh Hader (LHP)
Milwaukee gets: Bobby Dalbec (1B); Gilberto Jimenez (OF); Connor Seabold (RHP)

5. Sign Shawn Armstrong (RHP) for 1 year, 1.5M.

6. Non-tender Daniel Vogelbach & Jandel Gustave

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Wong
SS- Adames
LF- Yelich
DH- Tellez
3B- Urias
1B- Dalbec
C- Narvaez
RF- Frazier
CF- Taylor

C- Suzuki
2B- Brosseau
2B- Peterson
CF- Bradley
RF- Cain

1. Burnes (R)
2. Woodruff (R)
3. Peralta (R)
4. Houser (R)
5. Lauer (L)

CP- Williams (R)
SU- Suter (L)
SU- McHugh (R)
RP- Cousins (R)
RP- Gott (R)
RP- Perdomo (L)
RP- Ashby (L)
RP- Armstrong (R)

Believable5 Unbelievable0

18 Nov 2021 16:38:09
I think they could do better for Hader, but I'm not very high on Dalbec.

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19 Nov 2021 20:46:57
They also have $36 million worth of OFers on their bench, lol. But sure, trading the worse one for SP depth is insane.

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21 Nov 2021 12:20:28
What's your issue Chi Sox? I haven't been condescending with you, no need to do so with me.

I stated that I don't see the Brewers taking on Dallas Keuchel, even if they are able to dump Bradley. I'm sorry not everyone here agrees with your self-proclaimed massive intelligence.

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22 Nov 2021 02:06:12
Natedog, you're now arguing with me from a different account. You've done this before and I find it hilarious that you need to create additional accounts to make it look like people agree with the things you say. LMAO. It's laughably childish, but have fun I guess, kiddo.

You don't need to tell me that Natedog and DavidStearnsGM posting here at the same time of day or that both accounts write in the same tone is some kind of coincidence. You have some internal issues to address, it appears.

Anyway, I don't think it makes sense to claim that the Brewers wouldn't take Kuechel, but they'll put 2 $18 million outfielders on their bench? If Cain isn't even starting, getting Keuchel for Bradley is a no brainer for MIL. JBJ would hardly ever get into games in your scenario. Keuchel still has the upside to be a productive back-end starter.

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15 Nov 2021 14:21:20
Giants Offseason

(Update since Posey retired)

Non-tender Alex Dickerson & Tyler Beede.

Re-sign 1B Brandon Belt (accepts QO)- 1/18.4M
Re-sign RHP Kevin Gausman 4/84M

Sign RHP Dylan Bundy 1/6.5M
Sign RHP Justin Verlander 2/32M
Sign OF Seiya Suzuki 5/75M
Sign RHP Hector Neris 2/15M

Trade LHP Nick Swiney & 1B Garrett Frechette to Tampa Bay for LHP Ryan Yarbrough

C- Casali
1B- Belt
2B- Flores/La Stella
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
LF- Wade/Suzki
CF- Slater/Duggar
RF- Yastrzemski

C- Bart
1B/OF- Ruf
2B/3B- Flores/La Stella
OF- Wade/Suzuki
OF- Duggar/Slater

1. Webb (R)
2. Gausman (R)
3. Verlander (R)
4. Bundy (R)
5. Yarbrough (L)

CP- Doval (R)
CP- McGee (L)
SU- Rogers (R)
RP- Neris (R)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- J. Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)

Estimated 2022 Payroll- $168 Million

Believable5 Unbelievable1

15 Nov 2021 17:50:36
Still think Gausman at 4/ 84 represents a substantial hometown discount. He's the best pitcher on the market over 4+ seasons, by a decent margin.

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15 Nov 2021 21:15:44
Possibly. And I'd agree it's a hometown discount. He's made it very clear he wants to play in San Francisco, on several occasions.

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16 Nov 2021 04:36:36
I think LAA comes after Gausman hard. Arte probably signs off on 5/ 110-120 easy. Trip to OC might not be too bad for $30 million extra.

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16 Nov 2021 13:38:45
It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse.

But every indication, again, is that there's mutual interest in bringing him back. I just don't know if Zaidi is ready to drop 100M+ on Gausman. I'd rather him give it to Stroman.

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16 Nov 2021 14:14:56
Agree to disagree there I guess. No chance in heck I'd take Stroman over Gausman.

Reports are that LAA is going over the QO to sign Synderaard. Major desperation mode - I think one of Gausman, Stroman or Ray is going there as well.

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16 Nov 2021 14:51:39
I think my greater fear is that the Giants would be paying to get second half Kevin Gausman, which is why I don't want them going more than 4 years on him.

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17 Nov 2021 13:32:33
This offseason should be interesting. To date, the biggest free agent contract they've handed out under Zaidi was to Tommy La Stella. It's clear they'll blow straight through that this winter, but I remain unconvinced that they are going to start giving out 100M contracts just yet.

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18 Nov 2021 14:36:42
The Steamer projections for Stroman versus Gausman show why we shouldn't trust Steamer.

Gausman 2022: 191 IP, 10.02 K/ 9, 2.54 BB/ 9, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP.
Stroman 2022: 182 IP, 7.39 K/ 9, 2.64 BB/ 9, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP.

The problem I see is that Stroman's numbers, most importantly his ERA and FIP are elevated by 50 to 100 points, respectively from his 2021 numbers, and the last time Stroman was that bad over a full season was 2016. He was hurt in 2018. They don't reflect his career numbers very well.

Gausman's projections are elevated from 2021 as well, but they fall more in line with his career numbers.

Stroman's projections are obviously hurt by a gap in the algorithm, not having any numbers to input in 2020 due to his opt out, but it's odd to me that a guy who had 3.22 and 3.02 ERA seasons over his last two (and wasn't dealing with injuries) would somehow be projected as a 4.12 ERA guy the next season.

I think both are excellent pitchers. But I'd lean toward Stroman, mostly because he has a lengthier track record of success.

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18 Nov 2021 17:20:03
Stroman's GB% is dropping and his 2021 BABIP was a career-low. For a pitcher that's so quality of contact-driven, that's a cause for concern. If he goes to a less defensively-efficient team (i. e. one that doesn't have Lindor and Baez up the middle), we could see the effect. I think he's a high-3s, low-4s ERA guy into his early 30s.

Remember that Steamer is merely a formula. It's not making any subjective determinations.

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22 Nov 2021 13:34:41
Except when Darin Ruf is a -0.7 WAR player next year. Then you're more than willing to accept it as a determination.

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22 Nov 2021 14:30:59
It would be better for your argument on Ruf if Steamer WAS making subjective determinations. Math tells us that you're severely overrating his future outlook.

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29 Nov 2021 03:17:27
Yeah, 4/ 84 for Gausman was unsurprisingly never close, lol.

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01 Dec 2021 20:03:36
Did Gausman go to the White Sox for 5/ 120?

Asking for a friend.

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02 Dec 2021 03:21:10
Nope, but 5/ 120 was a lot closer than 4/ 84.

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02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.

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