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27 Jul 2021 15:02:19
NY Mets Trades for post season push:

Trade for Max Scherzer
Mets send to Nationals
1. Mark Vientos
2. David Peterson

Trade for J. Baez and C. Kimbrel
Mets send to Cubs
1. Ronny Mauricio
2. Frank Kilome

Agree2 Disagree4

27 Jul 2021 15:27:07
If Nats could land Vientos that would be an incredibly solid get for Scherzer.

Love Mauricio as the headliner here, but there would have to be some other supplementary pieces like Alexander Ramirez or Jordan Palmer instead of Kilome with the direction the cubs have gone in most trades.

Not bad all around, feel like both these moves would put the Mets as serious contenders.

27 Jul 2021 17:31:56
MrOctober_24,

Nats trade
Agreed that Vientos and Peterson would be a goo hall for Nats especially since Scherzer is a rental. They would get a young position player and a decent MLB pitcher under control. It's costly but the Mets would go into the playoffs with arguably the best 1 - 2 punch in a rotation.

Cubs trade
I agree the secondary pieces would change. The only thing is that I don't think the mets will want to trade Palmer while trading Mauricio in this trade and Vientos in the Nats trade. After Mauricio the Mets don't have much SS prospect depth.
Mets would get Baez who could play SS until Lindor comes back then shift around to 2b, 3b when Lindor in healthy. Plus getting Kimbrel for this year and next year ---- he's been lock down.

27 Jul 2021 17:33:34
I highly doubt Nats would trade Turner.
Turner and Soto are the 2 players they will build around.

27 Jul 2021 17:37:35
There's a better chance that Chi Sox says something bad about Jose Abreu than the Cubs getting Ronny Mauricio for Baez + Kimbrel.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:13
Dan

There have been multiple legitimate sources that have stated the Nats are taking offers on Turner and Seattle is very interested.

27 Jul 2021 07:44:19
Here's what the White Sox should do this week:

Trade #1

White Sox get: RHP Ryan Tepera
Cubs Get: RHP Andrew Dalquist, INF Yolbert Sanchez

Trade #2

White Sox get: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar
Diamondbacks get: 1B/OF Gavin Sheets

Trade #3

White Sox get: Ian Kennedy RHP
Rangers get: DH Yermin Mercedes, RHP Kade McClure

Agree3 Disagree5

27 Jul 2021 11:15:10
Tepera trade isn’t bad at all. Would be a solid return for a rental and Sox would get a consistent bullpen arm. I like it.

27 Jul 2021 04:39:52
Official:

Athletics: Andrew Chafin

Cubs: Greg Diechmann OF (FV40+), Daniel Palencia P (FV40+)

FV according to Fangraphs. com.

Agree1 Disagree0

27 Jul 2021 13:38:50
It's an interesting return for Chafin. Very low floor, medium ceiling type players.

The real prize for the Cubs could be Palencia. If they can work on his stuff, he's got late-inning upside, in my opinion.

Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years.

27 Jul 2021 13:57:23
What…? Lol was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and likely would have been up early this year if they didn’t lose 2020 to c.v.. He has also improved his walk rate a ton and cut his strikeout %.

I agree he doesn’t have a high ceiling, but to make that statement you made in your last sentence is just incorrect. Especially when you hype up Dubon who is older and performing worse at the same level.

27 Jul 2021 14:20:08
Dubon is MLB-bench depth who can be played all over the field, something guys like Jed Hoyer have targeted in the past (see: Zobrist, Ben) .

Also, how is Dubon performing worse at the "same level"?

2021 AAA stats:
Dubon- 143 wRC+. .419 wOBA
Deichmann- 128 wRC+, .395 wOBA

They are performing at pretty similar rates. They are both low-ceiling, low-floor guys. Also, both have hilariously unsustainable BABIPs in AAA. Deichmann isn't going to have a .400 BABIP for the Cubs. A BABIP of even .350 pulls his wRC+ down to around league average (100).

I can see why the Cubs are intrigued by Deichmann. If he works out, it's brilliant. They got a great OF for the price of Andrew Chafin (who is also having a hilariously unsustainable year) . If he doesn't, well, they got a 26-year-old OF prospect who likely wasn't going to be much more than a 4th OF anyway.

It's a good trade. But I would lower your expectations for Deichmann by a significant amount.

27 Jul 2021 14:23:55
Also, my statement of "Deichmann will be one of those guys who runs out of options and gets DFA'd in a few years. " cannot be incorrect yet.

It's a prediction. One that neither you nor I have any indication whether it's right or wrong.

If you think Deichmann will be some stud in Chicago, by all means, predict away. I'm of the belief that he's not much of an improvement over someone like Michael Hermosillo, who the Cubs won't even roster.

I'm okay with being wrong, but Deichmann's types have been around for over a decade, and rarely do they stick around.

I'm not incorrect. You're not incorrect. It's called a "prediction". We'll deem what's correct in about 3-5 years.

27 Jul 2021 14:40:56
Ben Zobrist was a key piece in a World Series winning team and a 2 time all star BEFORE the Cubs acquired him. Just because Dubon can play multiple positions doesn’t put him in any relation with Zobrist.

When did I have expectations about GD? I just didn’t agree with what you said. I agreed his ceiling isn’t high, but to say he will be one of those guys to be DFA is just silly given the fact he has shown improvement and has potential to hit well.

27 Jul 2021 17:46:35
My point to Dubon was that positional flexibility is something that Hoyer is ON THE RECORD saying he values. If he can have a bench piece who plays infield and outfield, he can put more relievers on the roster.

Deichmann is a 26-year-old OF prospect, who doesn't hit lefties, at all, who is relying on a .401 BABIP to produce in AAA. He's not going to carry a .401 BABIP in Chicago, or anything close to it.

He'll likely be a 65-80 wRC+ guy, which isn't a starter, by any means, and likely shouldn't come off the bench, unless he becomes someone who can tee off on RHP. Unless something drastically changes, Deichmann is a platoon-guy, likely at the highest possible projection. And those guys get optioned and DFA'd literally every day in baseball.

He's an intriguing option, but saying he's likely to waste his option years and be DFA'd isn't that silly.

20 Jul 2021 14:57:35
Some Giants trades.

#1
Giants get: RHP Kenta Maeda, OF Brent Rooker

Twins get: OF Austin Slater, 3B Luis Toribio (#9, 45 FV), SS Dilan Rosario (#26, 40 FV), RHP Camilo Doval (MLB-ready RHP, 40 FV).

Zaidi is familiar with Maeda, and Rooker seems like a lot of the Zaidi acquisitions. Twins would be more than familiar with the Giants' system.

#2
Giants get: RHP Yimi Garcia

Marlins get: RHP Tyler Beede

Giants solidify their bullpen, while the Marlins get some controllable pitching. They get a fixer-upper in Tyler Beede. Zaidi gets Garcia, who he is more than familiar with.

#3
Giants get: Kris Bryant

Cubs get: OF Alexander Canario (#13, 45 FV), UTIL Mauricio Dubon

Giants go get a guy Scott Harris is familiar with to bolster the lineup. Cubs get a super-utility guy and an intriguing OF prospect.

Lineup vs. RHP
1B- Wade
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
3B- Bryant
SS- Crawford
LF- Dickerson
CF- Duggar
2B- Solano/Flores

vs. LHP
RF- Yastrzemski
3B- Bryant
C- Posey
1B- Ruf
LF- Rooker
SS- Crawford
2B- Flores/Solano
CF- Duggar

Rotation
Gausman, DeSclafani, Maeda, Cueto, Wood

Bullpen
CP- Garcia (R)
SU- Rogers (R)
SU- McGee (L)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)
RP- Jackson/Brebbia (R)

Agree10 Disagree8

21 Jul 2021 12:46:29
Maeda has multiple years of control left at only a 3mil a year price. Going to have to give up a higher touted prospect imo.

Beede / Garcia deal is fine.

Canario is a nice prospect, but if Joc Pederson brought a 40FV prospect, I imagine KB can land a 50 or multiple prospects.

Overall not bad offers just need to be adjusted based on the value of the players coming to the giants. I think the giants make out pretty nicely on all 3 and it’s favored towards them.

21 Jul 2021 14:20:58
The $3.125M is the baseline. It's an incentive based contract.

In order to only be paid $3.125M, Maeda has to have less than 15 starts and less than 90 IP. If you're only paying Maeda $3M, then he had a bad year, and likely, didn't play much at all. At 180IP and 30 games started, Maeda is paid around $11M. That changes the value by quite a bit.

As far as the Bryant trade, if the Cubs can get a 50-grade prospect out of Kris Bryant, then they should, by all means, make that trade. Personally, I don't see any team giving up that return for a rental. And I strongly doubt it'll be the Giants, unless they can secure an extension out of him.

21 Jul 2021 15:45:18
Then the Giants won’t be the trade partner for Bryant. Offer him a QO and receive a high comp pick. Better than settling. If anything, pair Bryant with a reliever (Kimbrel, Chafin, Tepera) and improve the return.

21 Jul 2021 17:04:07
If you think that Alexander Canario and Mauricio Dubon is "settling", then I think you'll be sorely disappointed by any Kris Bryant trade. I don't think this is necessarily the "best" trade, but I do think it falls in line with what's fair.

Keep in mind, compensatory pick rules changed, and the Cubs would get a pick in between rounds 2 and 3 if they lost Bryant after offering a QO (due to their market size, they wouldn't get a 1st Round Comp Pick) . Do you truly believe that a 45-grade prospect would be available by then? If they are, it's likely because they are wanting a massive signing bonus.

Point is: Canario and Dubon would be significantly more valuable than anyone the Cubs are finding in the 3rd round of the draft.

If the Cubs are offered a return involving a couple of 40-FV guys, sure, take your chances in the division and with the Comp Pick. But I see them getting more.

21 Jul 2021 18:50:34
“ If a team that loses a qualifying free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, and the lost player signs for at least $50 million, the team is awarded a compensatory pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for the team comes after Competitive Balance Round B. ”

I think Bryant will sign for over 50 million…lol

27 year old utility man Dubon?! No thanks. As stated before, Canario is a nice prospect, but he won’t lead a package for Bryant.

21 Jul 2021 19:11:00
I've watched my fair share of Maeda start this year, he's looked brutal. Not sure he's any better than what SF currently has in the rotation.

Also, If you think that package is definitely suitable for Bryant and mine wasn't for Story (who is less valuable, having a worse season/ career, and has a smaller market), you need to rethink your valuations and comments.

22 Jul 2021 01:32:55
If you think someone better than Canario is headlining a Bryant deal, I honestly don't know what to say.

You'll be thoroughly disappointed with the deal. Just going to say it.

And Chi Sox, no. I don't think Bryant and Story will receive that drastically different returns. Probably a 45 FV guy each, with Bryant likely fetching an intriguing MLB piece on top of it. (Slater or Dubon from the Giants would likely do the trick)

22 Jul 2021 15:32:37
Ah ok. Maybe all my trade was lacking then was intriguing MLB piece Danny Mendick.

22 Jul 2021 17:15:29
Buddy, your thought process is hilarious and precious.

1. State a wild claim. "Story can be had for a paltry return of 3 40 FV prospects. "

2. Beg the question. "Hey, since Story is only going to be had for 3 40 FV prospects, why is Kris Bryant's trade not much different than your Story trade ideas?

3. Condescend when you realize that begging the question isn't working.

It's an interesting strategy. I'm not sure it's working out for you all that well. But I admire the hustle.

22 Jul 2021 17:25:45
What your trade for Trevor Story was missing was actual players who will convince the Colorado Rockies to hand over Trevor John Story, and names that will beat out the offers of other baseball teams.

Impressively, your trade idea matched neither of those criteria.

22 Jul 2021 17:37:45
MrOctober, you should have kept reading. This is from MLB's Website:

"if the team that loses the free agent is a REVENUE-SHARING RECIPIENT, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2020 MLB Draft. "

Okay, so that paragraph doesn't pertain to the Chicago Cubs, who aren't a revenue-sharing recipient. So what rules pertain to them? Next paragraph:

"If the team that loses the player DOES NOT RECEIVE revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. "

This is where the Cubs' pick would be. The size of the contract doesn't matter. Kris Bryant could feel charitable and go to the Rays on a $1M contract. The Cubs would still be stuck in this spot, providing they don't exceed the luxury tax, of which, they then get a pick after the fourth round.

22 Jul 2021 23:24:58
Ramos + Sheets + Thompson > Canario.

I am truly sorry.

23 Jul 2021 04:37:06
Might want to reevaluate your player values after that Nelson Cruz trade.

24 Jul 2021 01:48:57
Why? Tampa Bay was in a serious roster crunch, and have about 3 billion prospects who are Rule 5 Eligible. Guys like Joe Ryan weren't making the roster in 2022.

Context matters in these deals. And trying to say, "Nelson Cruz got this, therefore, Kris Bryant will get this" is a fools errand and it has NEVER been a rule that ends up being consistent.

If you want, you could point to the Cubs giving up Gleyber Torres for Chapman. Why don't we see those deals? Because no one has the context the Cubs had in 2016. No one.

26 Jul 2021 18:53:13
Chi Sox - Per Fangraphs own rankings, a 45M FV prospect is worth 6M, a 40 FV is worth 2M.

Canario (45M) = 6M
Ramos + Thompson + Sheets = 6M.

Add in Dubon, and the Giants offer is significantly better.

I'm truly sorry.

26 Jul 2021 22:25:10
Nate, you wouldn't be referencing a FG article from 2018 now would you?

Remember, those values have no bearing on today's market. You said so yourself. So maybe the difference between Machado (or Bryant) and Story's values is in fact an addition of Dubon?

Wooooow, see how that works?

26 Jul 2021 22:29:53
My trade for Story was way too light you say, but when you take the value amassed from Sheets, Thompson and Ramos and add a AAAA-guy like Dubon, then, according to you, they could get a player worth more than a win better than Story season.

Interesting string of logic there.

27 Jul 2021 02:44:36
I'm literally referencing the BOARD and the numbers associated with the Farm Rankings Leaderboard, as they currently exist on the website, right now.

Seriously, this game you're playing is beyond petty, bro. You're literally trying to find ANYTHING to nitpick.

Go ask your mom to make you some Kool-Aid and play some Minecraft. You clearly need a break.

27 Jul 2021 05:42:02
You literally posted Abreu's splits vs. .500+ teams and sub-.500 teams, and I'm nit-picking?

Right.

27 Jul 2021 11:58:53
Umm, that's, I don't know, slightly relevant to the conversation.

Saying, "wow, you posted information from 2018 LULULLULULZ" and then being colossally wrong not only makes you look insanely dumb and petty, it also makes you look like an arrogant fill-in-the-blank.

Seriously. You're so incapable to accepting that you're wrong that you had to try and throw something super petty out there.

It makes it look worse when you were dead wrong LOLOLOLOLOL.

19 Jul 2021 04:18:38
Cubs/ Blue Jays

Blue Jays: Craig Kimbrel

Cubs: Jordan Groshans SS/ 2B, Eric Pardinho SP.

Agree1 Disagree10

19 Jul 2021 20:41:43
Drastic overpay by the Blue Jays.

29 Jul 2021 04:02:58
Yeah, the Jays won't give up those prospects for a player that probably won't even help them get to a WC game this year. I think you will see some higher end prospects moved in the off season for the Jays to make a serious run in the next couple years.

19 Jul 2021 04:09:36
Cubs/ Red Sox

Red Sox receive: Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel

Cubs receive: Bryan Mata SP, Gilberto Jimenez OF, Nick Yorke 2B, Brian Bello SP

Red Sox need to strengthen their bullpen and 1B has been arguably their worst producing position on their team. You aren’t going to win with a platoon of Danny Santana and Bobby Dalbec. Red Sox give up a number of quality prospects here but they have a crowded OF, and none of these guys will be reaching the majors to help them compete in the near future.

Cubs get a solid haul here with a lot of upside. Kimbrel’s value is at an all time high so they need to receive a legitimate package to move him. Tagging on Rizzo makes too much sense here and gets them an extra prospect and some more quantity.

Agree0 Disagree8

19 Jul 2021 21:24:21
Kimbrel's "value" isn't at an all-time high. You have two scenarios with his contract:

A) His option fails to vest and he's a free agent this winter, thus a rental
B) His option vests and his acquiring team is on the hook for a $16M reliever.

In situation A, I don't see a single team shelling out a Top 100 prospect (like the Blue Jays do above) for a rental. And I see it even less if teams have to pay him $16M next year.

Kimbrel's value is puffed up by the media, and while I suspect the Cubs will get something interesting for him, I think Cubs fans will be underwhelmed.

21 Jul 2021 12:47:41
Kimbrel’s value is most definitely the highest it will ever be going forward. He will land a respectable package of prospects. We will see when teams get desperate towards the deadline and the type of prospect haul he pulls.

21 Jul 2021 14:26:50
That's fair, but it still doesn't help your trade. In fact, it hurts it.

If Kimbrel will never be this valuable again, then why would teams give up a 50 FV prospect for him? I don't see the elite clubs making a desperate move for him.

I could see Kimbrel drawing in a 45 FV guy, but it'd likely be a fringier player, someone with 45 FV upside, but also could be a massive bust. Think someone like Jairo Solis from Houston or Rafael Marchan out of Philadelphia.

I'm willing to be wrong, because teams do crazy things at the trade deadline, but I don't see anyone desperate enough to blow it open for Craig Kimbrel. I just don't.

27 Jul 2021 03:34:39
Chafin gets a 40+ and another prospect but Kimbrel will only land a fringe 45? Loooool.

27 Jul 2021 04:23:05
Make that two 40+ prospects according to Fangraphs. Again, you may want to reevaluate the way you value players.

27 Jul 2021 17:49:43
But Adam Frazier, who is not a rental, got a 40 FV and 2 35+ FVs.

It's almost as if:

A. You can't compare trades and
B. Pitchers have ALWAYS gotten more at the trade deadline than position players.

27 Jul 2021 18:05:19
More context: Andrew Chafin is making south of 3M this year. The Cubs are likely taking on most of the remainder of that deal.

Craig Kimbrel will make almost DOUBLE that amount, just for the next 60 games of the regular season.

Kimbrel also has the potential of his option vesting. He only needs about 75 games finished (thanks to the pro-rated amount from the shortened season), and is currently at 46. In other words, a team that desperately needs him (enough to pony up a 50-FV prospect) could be on the hook for a 16M reliever in 2022.

A team that may not need him 29 of their next 60 games, thus his option not vesting ABSOLUTELY isn't going to give up a 50-FV prospect for him.

That contract, and the potential for Kimbrel's option to vest, is enough for teams to balk at the asking price.

Now, if the Cubs were to guarantee some serious money should his option vest (8-10M), then I could maybe see it.

14 Jul 2021 04:19:54
White Sox/Rockies

White Sox get:
Trevor Story SS

Rockies get:
Matthew Thompson RHP
Bryan Ramos INF
Gavin Sheets 1B/OF

Agree4 Disagree11

14 Jul 2021 15:55:22
LOL. AT this point, unless you're getting a lesser-touted rental like Eduardo Escobar, the White Sox are going to have to give up Kelley, Vera, or Cespedes.

Literally every team in baseball would best that offer for Trevor Story.

14 Jul 2021 17:47:20
Escobar is "lesser-touted" I guess, but I'm not so sure Arizona gets a lot less for him compared to what Colorado gets for Story. The former has been 16% better at the plate - I think that's notable. Story gives you the defensive advantage, for sure, but then again, what's the market for Story?

Everyone says Oakland, but will they pay the money?

OK, maybe the Yankees would be a fit, but will they even be buyers in a couple weeks? Are they bench Gleyber or Voit, or sending Stanton to LF every day?

The Mets at 2B? Maybe.

The Reds make sense if they feel like they're actually contenders, but they might need a SP more than anything.

Point is, I don't really see anyone shoveling out a "huge" package for a 92 wRC+ as a 2.5 month rental. And yes, I do know Story is on a 3.8-win pace and is a very good player even with below-average offensive production, which I why I'm offering 3 solid prospects.

Colorado simply needs to get more value then the comp pick they'd receive next summer from Story's departure. They get 3 good looking prospects who are collectively much more valuable than that pick. I'm not really surprised that you hate the group of 3, but evaluators love Ramos and what he has done this year, Thompson is projectable albeit still quite a project, and Sheets is clearly a ML ready bat without a long-term spot in Chicago.

Not even saying Kelley, Vera, or Cespedes would be completely off the table either. I just think the Rox would like this package.

14 Jul 2021 18:35:49
I was reliably told, by you, that 40 FV prospects were not "solid prospects. " When I brought up the Mark Melancon trade and said they got a great return, you scoffed at it, because Tristan Beck was a 40 FV.

Now, it's a solid return? It's incredible how you speak out of both sides of your mouth when it's convenient to the argument you're trying to make.

Also, if you think that the Chicago White Sox are the only team who make an offer for Trevor Story, you're out of your mind. And it doesn't even have to be a "huge" package. The return the Rockies are getting is super underwhelming.

That "MLB Ready" player has 47 plate appearances. Once again, you lambasted me for touting Darin Ruf over 100 PAs, but Sheets only needs 47? Seriously, your arguments are so lacking in awareness over what you've said before. It's almost like you just say a bunch of nonsense and hope no one remembers.

Ramos and Thompson are 40-grade prospects in single-A. They are definitely the guys who get tossed in as add-ons, and certainly not the main grabs you think they are. They are, by every account, run-of-the-mill prospects.

Thompson is not a "good looking prospect: by any means. He's nearly walking a batter per inning in Single-A and giving up an earned run per as well.

If this is the ONLY offer the Rockies get for Trevor Story, I could maybe see it. But we both know it won't be the only offer, and we both know that someone else will offer something better.

Perhaps, as you keep talking, TRY to remember what you've said before. Then you can either denounce it as the nonsense we both knew it was OR you can try and keep it up and stay consistent.

But you won't do either.

15 Jul 2021 02:52:46
I don't currently have either Ramos or Sheets as 40 FVs. You're obviously free to disagree with me as there's clearly no science to FV grades. Thompson has thrown all of 25 professional innings with control issues - denounce him and his future outlook through that stretch if that's how you evaluate prospects.

And I'm not saying Sheets headlines a major deal because of 47 solid PAs. I'm saying those PAs help confirm his status as a good pro hitter who's never had a wRC+ below 120 in any of his full pro seasons. It would be a nice piece for Colorado. Ramos, albeit young, has looked quite good in Kannapolis as the numbers confirm. It also not like Colorado is looking to reload for a 2022 run either.

The disconnect here (that is, if you're actually trying to break down a potential deal) is that you believe that Story will command a large return even after I outlined his thin market PLUS the fact that someone like Javy Baez could also be available with almost identical trade value.

I just don't agree with that. We could compare the Manny Machado to LAD deal.

Baltimore got Yusniel Diaz (45+), Dean Kremer (40), Breyvic Valera (40) Zach Pop (40) and Rylon Bannon (35) for Machado who had a 155 wRC+ at the time of the deal and was already worth almost 4 WINS through 96 games, that's 2 full wins better than Story.

All that said, I think the value lines up pretty well. You want too make the argument that Colorado demands Norge Vera or Cespedes for some reason, then so be it.

15 Jul 2021 13:38:05
Oh trust me, I'm well aware that you have Sheets and Ramos as 50-55 FV prospects.

Also, Story's market isn't THAT weak. You just think it is because it's the only way you can justify this hilariously bad trade. I'm by no means suggesting that Story will command some 50 FV prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone gives it up.

But if you don't think the Yankees, Reds, A's, or even the Brewers, Astros, Mets, Phillies, or even the Giants or Dodgers (less likely because of the division) wouldn't jump all over the chance to trade 3 40-grade prospects to get Trevor Story for a couple of months, then you're being unrealistic on purpose.

The Rockies will have no problem trading him, and I don't think they'll have to "settle" for a pathetic trade like you just proposed just because some guy on the interwebs thinks the "market isn't there. "

Story will be just fine. His x-stats are similar to his 6-win seasons. .337 xwOBA currently. He's got a BABIP that is 50 points lower than his career numbers. I'd imagine a handful of teams would gladly leverage some farm depth to see if they can get his old production.

It won't be just the White Sox on him. And it won't be just a couple ho-hum 40-FV prospects going back to Colorado.

15 Jul 2021 13:45:47
Let's explore your "market" ideas:

Oakland- They are likely out to begin with, per their own statements.

Yankees- Would they bench Torres? Considering he's hitting 82 wRC, it's very possible.

Mets- They could try Story at 3B. They are reportedly looking at updates there. It'd be an odd fit, but it's not the first time a team has put s player at a new spot mid-season after a trade.

Reds- Yes, they need SP. They also need a SS. And they have a lot of prospect capital to get both. ESPECIALLY if all it will take is a handful of 40-FV prospects to land Story. Believe it or not, but teams can make more than one trade.

This doesn't, again, account for the Brewers, who look for middle infielders like Derek Jeter looks for supermodels. Or the Dodgers who will gladly take the depth. Or the Astros who can't keep Correa or Bregman healthy. Or the Mariners, who are always wildcards for any trade. Or the Phillies, who may not get Bohm back this year.

If all it takes is the package you put forth, LOTS of teams will be in on Trevor Story.

15 Jul 2021 15:04:44
This is helping my point. You just set out scenarios where maybe, possibly, kinda sorta one could find a reason to believe that each team could make a move for Story.

The Reds and Yankees are really not that good. Neither are the Mets, but the NL East can't ever figure it out on a year-to-year basis. Plus the Yankees are adamant about not crossing the luxury tax threshold which a Story acquisition would do. *This team* is the one they're going to pay extra for? Oakland is out too because of money I guess?

Would the White Sox be the team that currently makes the MOST sense out these teams, even with then moving him to 2B? It actually kind of looks that way. Do I see it as a likely transaction? No. Actually, i'd be somewhat surprised if Escobar isn't back in Chicago by the end of the month, but Story is the more exciting grab.

You say lots of teams would outbid the package; then who and why and with what?

The other teams you mentioned:

The Brewers have 115 and 128 wRC+ in the middle infield respectively. Could they move Peterson to third to make it work? I guess.

The Dodgers could maybe possibly make sense, but then you're likely shifting Chris Taylor out of an everyday role. I wouldn't do that. They're also going to need a SP, especially if Bauer is unable to come back this year and 1 or 2 proven RPs. And we're talking in division.

The Astros have Bregman, Correa, Altuve and Gurriel on their infield. Unless one of them suffers a season-ending injury in the next couple of weeks, he ain't going to Houston, no matter how dinged up they are.

The Mariners in an acquire and attempt to resign kind of thing? I guess maybe, but let's be honest, they're not real championship contenders this year.

Now the Phillies I could actually see if they feel like they can track down the Mets and if they're done waiting on Bohm to produce this year.

Even if you don't consider this batch of teams a "weak" market, you can't say its a strong one. The package Colorado gets back is most likely headlined by 45 FV prospect, if that. Again, Machado only got a 45+ for a 4-win 1st half. And if the Cubs start testing the waters with Baez's name, then that only hurts Story's value.

15 Jul 2021 20:25:51
I'm saying that if all it takes is a package of middling prospects to get Trevor Story, lots of teams would take the gamble. Heck, the Giants don't exactly have a spot for him, but I'd bet you anything, if Zaidi could get him for 3 40-FV prospects, he'd do it almost immediately.

As far as specific teams, you can try and explain it away, but they all make sense.

The Brewers could match or best that offer and stick Story at 2B or 3B (or moved Adames somewhere) . They could certainly use the help.

The Dodgers would simply move Gavin Lux's 90 wRC+ to the bench (or realistically, OKC) and put Story there.

The Astros currently have Bregman healing a major injury, which put him on the 60-Day IL. And if all it takes is a measly group of ho-hum prospects, who the heck cares if he acts as a bit of depth and you move guys to the bench and mix-and-match? Again, if it's not going to take a significant prospect, why not?

The Mariners, who are just 3.5 games out of the Wild Card, might see a chance. Story would be an upgrade over Dylan Moore (75 wRC+) and possibly even J. P. Crawford going forward. He'd boost them at the right time, especially for a package of 40-grade dudes.

The Mets? You might not think they are good, but they are #1 in the NL East and hold a 6.5 game lead. They'll add depth, and Story would fit right in. They are reportedly looking at 3B additions, and could mix it up and try Story there.

The Phillies, again, could fit.

Heck, if all it took to land Trevor Story was 3 40-grade prospects, I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox did something, and moved Devers to 1B.

The point is, Henry, if it's not going to take very much to land Trevor Story, which you so adamantly believe (mostly because that's the only scenario in which the White Sox can land any player), then Story's market grows, exponentially.

Yours is a classic case, and you do it all the time, hilariously, where you try to pretend a team (in your case, the White Sox) is the ONLY team who could realistically land anyone, and you pretend that no one else can afford him, needs him, or should get him.

And then you try to downplay how good that player is, mostly because what is really going on is you're trying to cope with not wanting to give up the minimal talent the White Sox have in terms of farm system to acquire him.

The fact is, Story is going to command a pretty decent return. It's not going to be a top 100 prospect, but it's also not going to be led by a 40-grade kid, either.

For the White Sox, I think it HAS to start with Jared Kelley, and even then, I don't think that's the best offer the Rockies would get.

15 Jul 2021 20:59:18
Now, while totally futile, because we both know you'll nitpick on each of these (mostly to distract everyone from your laughably bad trade), but here's a deal I think each of those teams could make for Story. All of which, mind you, would top the White Sox offer:

Reds- Rece Hinds (45), Aristides Aquino, Graham Ashcraft (40)
Yankees- T. J. Sikkema (40+), Oswaldo Cabrera (40+), Everson Pereira (40+)
Mets- J. T. Ginn (45), Alexander Ramirez (40+), Junior Santos (40)
Brewers- Mario Feliciano (45), Tristan Lutz (40+)
Dodgers- Alex De Jesus (45), Robinson Ortiz (40+), Jerming Rosario (40)
Astros- Peter Solomon (40+), Freudis Nova (40+), Misael Tamaraz (40)
Mariners- Brandon Williamson (40+), Connor Phillips (40), Jonatan Clase (40)
Phillies- Mickey Moniak (45), Jamari Baylor (40+), Kendall Simmons (35+)

Again, these are hypothetical. I have no idea how any of these teams value the specific players. But you'll notice one thing in common: no trades include significant, blue-chip prospects. All of them include some sort of high-upside or current MLB guy, and none of them would hamstring their team, meaning the team could make the trade and not lose much sleep.

You currently offered: Thompson (40), Ramos (40), Sheets (40). EVEN if that would be the best Story returns, then every other team above would offer lesser packages, and do so excitedly. The White Sox wouldn't even be in the top 5 offers.

If the White Sox offered something like: Kelley (45), Bailey (40+), and Sheets (40), it might get the Rockies attention.

But the original trade, as you gave it, is neither good, nor would it be the "best". Because, again, if that's all it takes, then suddenly, others will feel differently about the "market".

To use an example, if a free agent says, "I demand $100M", then his market is only teams that have money and a need for his spot. But if he says, "I'll play for $5M a year", now, teams will change their plans and find a way to fit him in.

You've made Trevor Story a $5M player. Everyone will try for that if that's what his value really is.

16 Jul 2021 07:42:08
I'm curious as to how Manny Machado in 2018, an all around better player than Story, coming off a first half where he was worth almost 4 wins with a 155 wRC+, returns a 45+ POS, 2 40 Ps, a 40 POS and a 35+ POS, yet Story undoubtedly gets a 45 POS plus a 40+ POS and a 35+ POS, for example.

By these prospect values, Story's return is only worth $2 million less than Machado's for a full 2 wins less.

If I go out on some wild ride and promote Ramos to a 40+ FV to update FG rankings that haven't been touched in 8 months, I don't think it's that crazy for a guy that's hit some of his upside this year. I could make very reasonably make a strong case for the same promotion for Sheets. I think it's safe to say he's going to produce more than 0.2 fWAR (the mean 40 POS value) over the course of his career. He passes the eye test at the plate and has looked very comfortable thus far. The Rockies could give him an extended look, if anything, as a cheap pre-arb 1B for a team embarking on a long, dark rebuild.

If it's fathomable to promote those two guys (maybe you only want FanGraphs to update their playoff odds, not their prospect lists) and add Thompson, that puts the return's value around $9 million which, in my opinion, bears a much better relationship to the Machado deal given their production.

It's really getting to the splitting hairs point now because teams value all of these guys differently, but I don't think teams are going to start including 45s for Story, especially when keeping their heads above the .500 mark for some of them hasn't been that easy.

I'm willing to say I'm undervaluing Story here even though I love his upside. His road splits are still daunting, however.

16 Jul 2021 17:26:51
Yeah, when you're offering 3 40-FV prospects for Trevor Story, saying you're "undervaluing" him is a massive understatement.

For what it's worth, there's a lot of skepticism among guys at Fangraphs, most recently, Dan Szymborski, regarding Sheets. Not that Colorado's FO is that forward-thinking, but I doubt he gets them very excited, especially since they have enough corner-infield types that are already MLB-ready or near-MLB ready.

And yes, Story's value isn't that much lower than Machado's. I don't think teams are going to remotely care what Machado netted in a trade FOUR YEARS AGO. Those were two completely different teams with different needs and circumstances.

The Rockies, for whatever reason, haven't been interested in trading Trevor Story. I doubt they'll suddenly change course for a lackadaisical return. They'll just get the extra pick.

16 Jul 2021 19:02:48
Eh, I don't actually think the Rockies are really "ok" with not moving Story. Ideally they want to best that comp pick's value. I think they are just trying to improve their position as much as possible by giving buyers the impression that they're standing ok with standing pat. I think it's somewhat of a false narrative. Ten again, are we putting a lot of faith in that org to make the mot sound decision possible?

MLB orgs love negotiating through the media these days. They all have their favorite insiders that they like to purposely leak information to, so it's always interesting to try an dissect what is actually going on in reality.

Also, is the large amount of "skepticism" on Sheets just Szymborski literally saying the 3 words "I am skeptical" in a FG chat? because I'm struggling to a. ) figure out how that amounts to "lots of skepticism" or b. ) where exactly the other skepticism is.

And I guess you could say 2018 Baltimore and 2021 Colorado are different in terms of who's running them, but I actually think their situations are quite similar - so, like, the exact opposite of what you said.

17 Jul 2021 19:10:58
LOL. I said "most recently". There have been other chats where Sheets is brought up with less than excited responses from experts.

Also, the 40 FV that comes from Fangraphs is probably a pretty solid sign that there's a healthy dose of skepticism coming from the Fangraphs camp.

And just because you want to believe that 2018 Baltimore and 2021 Colorado are similar situations doesn't make it true. They are completely different organizations ran by different individuals. They have different organizational values and approaches. To assume that Colorado is seeking the same, better, or worse deal than Manny Machado is nothing more than you trying to justify your yet again putrid, yet laughable, trade idea.

It's really just a bad idea coming from you. And you refuse to just take it and move on.

18 Jul 2021 01:25:28
The comparison makes sense. I presented a pretty objective example. You have no real response, no insightful critique, but yet it’s putrid and laughable.

To assume Colorado is somewhat comparing a return to Machado makes perfect sense. They’d do really well to get as much as Baltimore got for Machado, it’s probably one of the first trades they bring up for comparison. It’s actually how a lot of contract discussions and trade value discourse is handled.

But by all means, tell me more about how it’s a bad idea, even though I lay out reasons x, y, z of why it’s a comparable situation. Nate doesn’t like the comparison for no specific reason, so we must throw it out the window folks, lol.

18 Jul 2021 18:12:32
I'm not saying it's a bad comparison, but I'm not saying it's a perfect one, either. The Machado trade was 4 years ago with completely different teams, front office folks, and situations. To suggest that any trade has to use the Manny Machado trade as a basis is pretty silly. It might, but it also might not.

You should probably go look up "objective". Because I'd argue that a player's value is 100% subjective, as was Machado's.

And I'd bet you next to anything that the Rockies don't care one bit what the 2018 Baltimore Orioles got for Manny Machado as they think about trading Trevor Story in 2021.

Once again, the example is subjective, entirely.

11 Jul 2021 19:37:47
Cubs/Giants

Giants Get:

Kris Bryant 3B/1B/LF/RF
Ryan Tepera RHP

Cubs Get:

Luis Toribio 3B/1B
Tristan Beck RHP
Mauricio Dubon UTL
Trevor McDonald RHP
Keaton Winn RHP

Giants get Bryant who they can plug & play at 4 different positions. His versatility is so valuable. It could also give them a leg up if they were planning on going after him this offseason.

What will be somewhat interesting in trades that they pursue will be that virtually all of their top prospects are underperforming.

The Cubs get a good package of players with Dubon & Beck being able to contribute sooner rather than later. Toribio should provide a nice upside bat.

They'll have an interesting deadline for sure. Bryant and Kimbrel will be gone (plus some of their other pen arms), but Rizzo and Baez I would guess won't. They're not going to want to rebuild, so an on-the-fly retool attempt is likely in the works.

Agree2 Disagree10

11 Jul 2021 22:31:09
If the Giants can get Bryant and Tepera for basically a bunch of 40-40+ FV prospects and an underwhelming Mauricio Dubon, I'd say they should do it.

11 Jul 2021 22:37:24
"What will be somewhat interesting in trades that they pursue will be that virtually all of their top prospects are underperforming. "

LULZ. You REALLLLLLLLY needed to find something to dig at the Giants, didn't you?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that their extremely regarded farm system is probably not going to be hurt because of a half-season of ho-hum production when most of the prospects missed a full season of baseball.

Now, if we want to talk about hilariously terrible farm systems that will absolutely handicap a team at the trade deadline, we should probably call upon Mr. 2nd Place Executive of the Year.

Dead last. by a fairly significant margin. Colorado has a better farm system than the White Sox. That should tell you a lot.

12 Jul 2021 15:09:01
It's not really a dig. The Giants do have a really good farm currently. It's just the reality of the situation. It likely won't deter moves, per say, but it can sometimes be a harder sell to a fan base when you trade a franchise cornerstone for a guy with like a 75 wRC+ in A-ball.

FWIW, FanGraphs has Toribio as a 45 FV. I thought about sending Kyle Harrison - maybe that's more likely with a little more of a quality over quantity approach.

12 Jul 2021 16:59:28
It might slightly affect trades, but I doubt that if the Giants offered a package around, say, Hunter Bishop, that teams with excellent player development departments are going to be scared off because of his 81 wRC+. They'll see way more than we see. They always do.

I don't know how other teams view specific players within the Giants system. I'd imagine, based simply on comments made by evaluators and unnamed front office guys, it's pretty highly praised and they could do a lot of different things at the deadline, if Zaidi wanted.

I CAN tell you that Zaidi isn't trading Harrison for anything short of a controllable starter. Based on dozens of interviews, Zaidi is claiming Harrison to be one of his proudest accomplishments to date. He won't give him up for 3 months of Kris Bryant.

But what this really shows is that the Giants have an incredible amount of prospect depth to work with and they could realistically grab almost any player, if they chose to pay the price, and still have an elite farm system.

This is what Zaidi has done. On top of putting together the team with the best record in baseball with a bunch of guys he acquired through waiver claims and for players named Franklin Van Gurp and Tyler Herb.

It's super impressive.

13 Jul 2021 02:18:26
A kid with 12 solid starts in low A-Ball is one of Zaidi’s proudest accomplishments? Interesting.

13 Jul 2021 14:03:21
As per usual, you're out of your element. I'll help explain.

Harrison was consensus late 1st Round material. But he was committed to UCLA and was going to require serious money to be lured away from his college commit. (His advisee was Scott Boras) . Zaidi, who has spoken about this multiple times, talks about how the Giants knew of Harrison's signability issues and were being told that no one was giving him the money he was asking (2.5M), so he'd likely go to UCLA and enter the draft in a few years.

Zaidi knew the asking price before the draft and said that they knew they could sign Harrison in the third, and signed the other draftees slightly below slot value in order to do so.

He got a 45+ FV high school arm in the third round of a draft, and planned to do so from the start of the draft.

For a guy who has been universally praised for his drafting abilities, Zaidi brags about this move quite a bit in various podcast interviews.

13 Jul 2021 14:12:43
To put it more bluntly, the Giants didn't go underslot on 3 of their first 4 picks to give Kyle Harrison a 1.7M over-slot bonus just to trade him away for 3 months of Kris Bryant.

13 Jul 2021 18:52:06
That is done every year by virtually every team. Hahn did it yesterday to get Tanner McDougal in the 5th round and last year to get Jared Kelley in the 2nd. It's not some unique strategy.

13 Jul 2021 19:23:22
I never claimed it was a unique strategy. I said it was a player that Zaidi has been extremely proud of securing in the draft.

Zaidi probably references Harrison more than any prospect when talking about his farm system. He's not trading Harrison away for Kris Bryant. That much is clear.

But it sure is nice to see one of our teams both has a winning record AND a farm system with players other teams will want.

13 Jul 2021 19:33:17
Speaking of unique, Guyyyyth, can you believe that Rick Hahn traded away his really good players for other really good players? Can you believe he worked to build a core of solid players?

Guys, did you know that Rick Hahn invented the idea of pre-arb extensions? It certainly never happened before. Please don't look up Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner, they are irrelevant here. RICK HAHN IS SO UNIQUE GUYS.

And guys, did you know Rick Hahn invented baseball?

Again, I'm not even remotely pretending that Farhan Zaidi did something unique. I'm just suggesting that Zaidi worked overtime to get a guy he ALMOST took in the first round, and instead took 3 players ahead of him.

You suggested that the Giants would trade Harrison. I said Zaidi has cited him as one of his biggest accomplishments. You scoffed at it, so I explained it.

Meanwhile, Harrison has higher value than literally any prospect the White Sox currently have. It's kind of hilarious when you think about how much you try and trash Zaidi around here.

14 Jul 2021 04:17:42
You're picking the fight, so here you go.

Getting franchise cornerstones for ADAM EATON and JOSE QUINTANA is not ordinary! These were/ are not "really good players" after leaving the White Sox. He moved them at max value before they depreciated rapidly. GMs screw this up every year.

Also, I'm really sorry the top-4 White Sox prospects graduated this year and are all excelling in the bigs. I'm fairly optimistic they'll be able to replenish some good prospects at the top here even though they likely won't be picking at the top of the draft for the foreseeable future. They've already gotten some solid production from some mid-tier guys at the big league level this year.

Maybe it's hard for you to recognize what Rick Hahn has done this year from way out on the west coast, but it pretty crazy to realize that they still have the best record in the AL with the best pitching staff in baseball all things considered - i. e. the most WAR lost of any AL team this year. Hahn had a fantastic off-season sans Eaton, but even then he has had 4 or 5 good RF options to pick up the slack.

They'll be adding Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and a trade acquisition bat to a lineup that is already 4th in baseball in fWAR. Sheeesh.

And yeah, you (who picked them to finish sub-.500), me and pretty much the entire rest of the baseball community were wrong about San Fran. I'll hand up admit I was wrong there. I never doubted Farhan as a good GM, but I didn't think he had anywhere near the talent necessary to have the best record in baseball, and again, neither did you.

I never "trashed" Zaidi either. Find me anywhere saying he isn't a good GM. You held up him up as an all-time great because of a few good waiver claims. I said pump the brakes because he hasn't built a solid core yet to really compete for the AL West perennially. To his credit, he hadn't had the opportunity to do so and what he and the rest of his staff have gotten out of their club this year is extremely impressive.

But yeah, shame on me for not forecasting the mid-30s career resurgences of Posey, Crawford and Longoria.

Enjoy the mid-July victory lap I guess?

14 Jul 2021 16:13:07
"Enjoy the mid-July victory lap" is hilariously ironic for someone praising his White Sox for winning one playoff game in 2020. but did you know they were breaking records left and right?

"But yeah, shame on me for not forecasting the mid-30s career resurgences of Posey, Crawford and Longoria. "

LOL again. If you were paying attention, or had read literally any conversation with players since Spring Training of 2020, you'd notice that the Giants players have spoken ad nauseum about the changes made by the coaching staff. The resurgence wasn't necessarily "predictable", but it's not the least bit surprising for those who have been paying attention. Trust me, I'm not accusing you of doing that.

"Maybe it's hard for you to recognize what Rick Hahn has done this year from way out on the west coast"

LMAO, I live in Iowa. We get White Sox highlights on the evening news. I;m aware of how the White Sox are doing. It's impressive, until you see their record and run differential against .500 teams. You understand they have the worst record against .500 teams of any contender, right? Right? I'm guessing you're blissfully unaware of this tough reality. I'll keep you in my prayers as you cope with it.

"I said pump the brakes because he hasn't built a solid core yet to really compete for the AL West perennially. "

No, you said they were years away and did nothing but mock me when I cited Darin Ruf as a legitimate example for what the Giants were doing. Ruf would legitimately be the White Sox best offensive player right now.

I tried to tell you that what Zaidi was doing was legit. You thought you could get away with mocking it. So I'm rightly calling you out.

Yes, I'm equally surprised. The Giants are MUCH better than even I thought they'd be. But to think, he's doing it with placeholders, waiting for guys like Luciano, Bart, Ramos, Bishop, Matos, Harrison, Corry, Hjelle, etc. to make their way up and add more depth.

Turns out, Dominic, you don't need a young "core" to win baseball games. Yes, believe it or not, you can win games outside of the way Rick "The Messiah" Hahn invented.

We don't know how any of this will play out. Based on what we've seen however, it's probably a little better odds the Giants, who have a .585 record (the equivalent of the Rays) against .500 teams will win a playoff series over the team with a .400 record (equivalent to the Royals) .

Just come out and say that you weren't just wrong in your prediction, but that your mockery of my points, all of which can be seen in WHY the Giants are as good as they are was out-of-line and made you look like a fool.

Do that and I'll drop it.

14 Jul 2021 17:17:49
You literally picked the Giants to finish 80-82, lol. I had them right around .500 or somewhere in the 75 to 80-win range. You were just as wrong as I was on them for this season, quite clearly.

I can assure you that for those in the baseball community who don't claim to be know-it-alls, every one of us is extremely surprised with Longoria, Posey and Crawford. Saying that you aren't is laughable, even for the biggest Giants fans out there.

"It's impressive, until you see their record and run differential against .500 teams. You understand they have the worst record against .500 teams of any contender, right? "

You understand they've played a big chunk of games this year with - yes 2, position players of their projected opening day starting 9, right? There's a reason why FanGraphs gives the Sox an 11.5% chance to win the World Series and the Giants are waaaaaay down at 2.3%, less than the YANKEES hahaha. Plus they project the Giants ROS win% at .489 with the Sox at .538.

The Sox getting their full lineup back with their pitching staff is quite frankly a juggernaut as shown by the projections, but I told you this would happen over the winter!

Oh, and Darin Ruf is a weak-side platoon bench piece. He wouldn't be remotely close to the Sox best hitter lmaoooo. He's a nice player, but seriously, drop it with him.

The Sox are coming to Dyersville next month! Show them some respect, fellow Iowan!

14 Jul 2021 18:59:03
You can act surprised until you connect a couple of dots. Guys like Donnie Ecker have spoken about their approach to hitting and how they've been working on players since they took over in 2020. As you watch guys like Crawford, Longoria, or Posey, it's no longer surprising.

I'm not saying I projected it. No one did. But as I recall the interviews and then see it played out in person, it's not the least bit surprising. The guys at Fangraphs and The Athletic have spent time connecting those same dots. It's why the Giants are doing so well: coaching.

Why would I drop it with Ruf? He's hitting 205 wwRC+ vs lefties, but a formidable 118 wRC+ against righties. For what it's worth, he has more at bats against RHP than he does against LHP. If we went with only his RH v RH plate appearances, his wRC+ is still third on the White Sox.

For a "weak side platoon", his 1.5 WAR is higher than the everyday 1B and defending MVP Jose Abreu's 1.2 WAR. Over 650 PAs, Ruf's WAR would be 6.8, Abreu's? 2.2. Seriously. The MVP vs. "weak side platoon bench piece". The Giants are paying 1.25M for that production, the White Sox are paying 17M for theirs. That's over 50x the value.

At this point, it's sour grapes for you. You were REALLY confident in your mockery of the Darin Ruf point, and yet, here you are AGAIN. Dead wrong about it. You can't handle being hilariously wrong about it, so I'm making sure I keep bringing it up.

I eagerly await how you'll contradict yourself to try and prove me wrong LOL.

14 Jul 2021 19:20:21
As far as the rest of the season goes, yes, the White Sox got their tough games out of the way. To the tune of a .400 record against real baseball teams. We've established this, Geronimo.

I do find it funny that you're like, "no one saw this coming, not even you or any experts" as it comes to the Giants. But NOW, suddenly, in mid-July, you're so confident about it all. Now, the Giants' chances are slim.

And you understand those FG ROS rankings are based on what Fangraphs themselves acknowledge as pre-season and seldom-updated projections, right? You act like we're not taking into account the White Sox' lack of Jimenez or Robert. YOU'RE not taking into account the injuries to Belt, La Stella, Longoria, or others. ALl guys who the Giants expect back at different points.

It also doesn't account for another really pesky detail: the Giants could make several significant trades, the White Sox, because of their terrible farm system, cannot. So the rankings are based on what the Giants and White Sox have now, on July 14th.

But let's say it is correct. The Giants go .490 the remainder of the season. They win 93 games and make the playoffs with 92% odds. You still understand how hilariously wrong that makes you, right?

Yes, I projected them to go 79-83. YOU claimed that they weren't even going to contend, and that the Front Office saying so was "lip service. " You said they have a very, very long ways to go" and that they were a "mediocre-at-best" team.

The Giants, who according to you, were "mediocre" currently stand to win the exact same amount of games as the team you crowned as "up there with the Dodgers. "

There's no getting around any of this for you. The Giants are for real, and they can add just about whoever they want if they are willing to pay the price. The White Sox REALLY need Jimenez and Robert to both be healthy and productive, because, as I said, no one is giving up legit talent for Jared Kelley.

14 Jul 2021 22:55:54
"Yes, I projected them to go 79-83. YOU claimed that they weren't even going to contend"

Going 79-83 and not contending is, well, the same thing. I would also call it "mediocre-at-best". So when they win 92-games, you too will just as wrong as I and there rest of the nation was.

Soooo, contradiction?

The good thing about the White Sox is that they don't need to make significant trades because the prospects they would trade for a "significant piece" have graduated from "prospect-um" and are good enough on their own. It's fantastic. A 2B upgrade here (only because their young, 115 wRC+ guy sustained a season-ending injury) and a middle reliever there and they are ready to roll.

Now ask yourself, would you trade Darin Ruf for Jose Abreu because of a good 250 PA sample from Ruf, or roll with a .291/ .349/ .515 with a .364 wOBA and a 132 wRC+ career slash over 4524 PAs? Think hard.

And I love your scaling logic here. So really, all the Giants need to do is give Ruf 650 PAs and they have a 7-win player on their hands! Lmao, not quite how that works bud. But again, Ruf is a *nice* player for just over a mil. I don't have any problem with him. He's a really good piece to have.

"The White Sox REALLY need Jimenez and Robert to both be healthy and productive"

Wellll I mean that would be optimal, but then again, they're the best team in the AL without them sooooo.

And it's not me thinking the Giants' chances are slim, it's FanGraphs' algorithm.

15 Jul 2021 13:13:57
No, I wouldn't trade a guy who has been over 50 times as valuable as the other guy. I'd reckon Rick Hahn wouldn't, either.

That Darin Ruf has higher WAR, higher wRC+ from both sides of the plate, along with a myriad of other better rate stats shows just how incredibly valuable this "weak side platoon depth" truly is. And the fact that he's doing it all the while the Giants are sans their own excellent 1B is even more impressive.

His WAR/ 650 is simply to show what kind of production he's giving. He's got an identical WAR to Abreu, despite 2.5 times less plate appearances.

And if you'd prefer traditional stats, consider this. Over 650 PAs, here would be their totals, at the current rate:

Abreu- .253/ .786 OPS, 26 HR, 82 R, 120 RBI
Ruf- .267/ .959 OPS, 40 HR, 118 R, 100 RBI

So, I guess Abreu puts up more RBIs at the rate they are going?

If you want to argue that Darin Ruf is "weak side platoon depth", fine. But all it does is show exactly HOW MUCH depth the Giants currently have.

15 Jul 2021 13:22:46
As far as the ROS stuff. My comments about Jimenez and Robert have to do with them in the playoffs. No one cares that the White Sox beat up on the Orioles and Royals and Tigers without them.

They are .400 in games that matter. That's 2 out of 5 in an ALDS series, or losing the series, for those keeping track at home. Will Jimenez and Robert assist that? Of course, but without them, we've seen what the "Best team in the AL" does. Perhaps that's an indictment on the entire AL? I don't know.

"And it's not me thinking the Giants' chances are slim, it's FanGraphs' algorithm. "

Riiiiight. Trust me, I'm not accusing you of being able to develop your own unbiased algorithm. If it was you, the White Sox would have won 135 games.

The criticism to the algorithm is simply that it can't factor in things that are coming up. Again, it can't take into account the Giants getting back Longoria, La Stella, and Belt at some time in the second half. Just like it can't factor in the White Sox getting Jimenez or Robert back.

So that .490 ROS record is based on the existing roster, right now. Fangraphs themselves would acknowledge this. They can't predict the future and can't factor into things not yet known. This isn't that difficult for most people. I'll give a handicap to White Sox fans, since they are new to this.

And bear in mind, the Fangraphs "trusty algorithm" ALSO had the Giants as a mid-70 win team. So perhaps we shouldn't put significant stock into what they predict? Again, I find it funny that you were so confident in your criticism, and now, still being wrong, you're like, "well, NOW, now is the time I'll be correct! "

Maybe just start sitting these out.

15 Jul 2021 16:12:23
Yes, my point with Ruf is that you can take his best 250 PA stretch while not grabbing Abreu's best and say "see, Ruf is really good, his numbers are better than Abreu's! ", as if I'm arguing for Abreu's greatness in 2021. He's been playing hurt pretty much all season and has still thrown up a 117 wRC+, but that's not the point.

Then you scale by 650 PAs which is something Abreu regularly does and something Ruf has never gotten close to state-side and act like that is proving something. Ruf has been really good for SF because they have put him in positions to succeed i. e. not as an everyday guy, lots of pinch hit ABs, etc. Give him 650 PAs and he's not putting up a 7-win season; I can guarantee it. Herein lies your logical fallacy.

I could similarly argue that if the Sox simply threw Liam Hendriks 200 innings, he'd amass 320 Ks, 20 BBs with a 2.75 ERA and 2.66 FIP. But they don't because that's not how it works and why just multiplying stats over a PA or IP "full season" value is not a good way to show value. Hendricks is really good in his role and so is Ruf.

Ruf is a really good player to have; a piece of the puzzle. You are insinuating that Zaidi has uncovered a 7-win talent. It's just not the case. He's had a really good 243 PAs, like I said and Zaidi should be commended for the nice pickup. Has he been just as valuable as Abreu over this season's first half according to fWAR? Yes. Is he the more valuable player overall in the grand scheme of things? Absolutely not. So in reality, your effort to promote Ruf's value was to put him up against an iron horse of a player who hasn't played his best over his last 83 games. It's not telling the story you think it is.

It's not adding context to Ruf's performance either; it's a convenient selection bias and a misleading scaling tactic.

15 Jul 2021 21:23:59
"So in reality, your effort to promote Ruf's value was to put him up against an iron horse of a player who hasn't played his best over his last 83 games. It's not telling the story you think it is. "

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

So wait, because the Giants happened to put 3 damn good 1B on the same roster, thereby getting to employ them where they can extract maximum value, he's suddenly less than the guy who is struggling, mostly because his award-winning executive* (*award given by an out-of-print magazine who resorts to Bleacher Report writing) couldn't put depth behind him?

Let's put this way. Jose "full time iron horse" Abreu is working twice as much as Darin "weak-side platoon bench piece" Ruf and producing the exact same amount.

If we both worked the same job, and you earned the company $1,000 after 10 hours of work, but I produced $1,000 after just 4, who is getting the promotion? If the boss has any wits about him, I will. He won't care that I only worked 4 hours and handed over my work to someone else.

What you're telling me is a) Jose Abreu isn't the "iron man" you thought he was. Heck, if nothing else, his 2021 numbers, which are in line with his numbers from 2018-19, show that 2020 was an aberration, and not the "full story" and b) that perhaps the White Sox should find 1B depth to help mitigate for Abreu's faults.

I'll put it one more way: Jose Abreu has been given 2.5x more chances, and the most he could do was put up the same production of Darin Ruf.

The difference here is that Ruf's boss employs him where he'll succeed. Abreu's? Not as much.

Maybe that's less an indictment on Darin Ruf's value and more on the White Sox ability to extract value out of their players.

15 Jul 2021 21:39:48
If we value 1 WAR at 8M, here are the surplus values:

Jose Abreu: 1.2 WAR (x8M) = 9.6M. Minus his 2021 AAV salary (16.7M) . His value is -7.1M

Darin Ruf- 1.5 WAR (x8M) = 12M. Minus his 2021 salary (1.3M) . His value is 10.7M. For the guy who went on an on and on about surplus value, you seem to ignore it when it's inconvenient.

Point is, Edward, Darin Ruf is valuable to the Giants. Because his manager and GM know how to get the most out of him. They know when to use him and when to not use him. And they've put tremendously talented players around him to get great production when he's not useful.

Jose Abreu is not valuable to his team right now. And the White Sox have no choice but to use him at 1B, every night. They don't do this because he's insanely valuable. He's not. he's a full-timer putting up similar numbers to part-timers. They do it because they legitimately have no depth to put behind him. They don't have a choice but to use Abreu.

I'd bet you almost everything I have, if the White Sox had a "weak-side platoon bench piece" like Darin Ruf to help Abreu, Abreu wouldn't be getting as many PAs each year.

The Giants are forward-thinking. The White Sox hire Tony La Russa.
Don't fault Darin Ruf for that.

16 Jul 2021 07:01:58
Again, you're conveniently pulling Ruf's best career numbers while not doing the same for Abreu. It doesn't make sense. Why don't we compare Abreu's 2020 to Ruf's 2015 or 2016? Want to do a little project and scale the up for me? Didn't think so.

The reason I can say that is I never said Abreu's 1st half stretch was better than Ruf's, nor did I say that Abreu has been more valuable over the 1st half than Ruf. I never even brought up Abreu as deserving any kind of credit for his 2021 production. This is all in an effort by you to prove the point that Ruf is in fact a good player, a point I have NEVER DISPUTED lol. What is even going on?

We've established that Ruf has had a very nice 143 PA stretch this year and Abreu has been *only* 17% above average at the plate, but that Abreu is the overall better player in the grand scheme. Despite their 2021 first half production, no one on the face of the earth would take Ruf over Abreu in the long run (or even probably for this year's 2nd half), and that's what really matters.

Oh yeah, and ROS? THE BAT X has Ruf putting up a 112 wRC+ over just 81 PAs. Abreu? 130 wRC+ over 292 PAs.

How about Steamer? A generous 186 PA slate with a .238/ .318/ .421 slash with a .320 wOBA, 104 wRC+ and a 0.4 WAR, AKA what Ruf's production would likely look like as an every day guy.

For Abreu it's .268/ .328/ .487 with a .347 wOBA, 122 wRC+ and a 1.1 WAR.

Hopefully that gives you a little perspective.

16 Jul 2021 07:09:27
Hold on.

"Jose Abreu is not valuable to his team right now. And the White Sox have no choice but to use him at 1B, every night. They don't do this because he's insanely valuable. He's not. he's a full-timer putting up similar numbers to part-timers. They do it because they legitimately have no depth to put behind him. They don't have a choice but to use Abreu. "

This, even for you, is so laughably bad that it almost hurts.

Abreu is a career .291/ .349/ .515 hitter with a .364 wOBA and a 132 wRC+ with 21.6 fWAR over more than 4500 PAs.

Ruf is at .247/ .330/ .456 with a .340 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ with 2.6 fWAR over 1026 PAs

Like, c'mon. The White Sox "have no choice but to use Abreu"?

Gooooooooootcha.

The White Sox have Andrew Vaughn (112 wRC+), Gavin Sheets (127 wRC+, 120 in AAA), Jake Burger (177 wRC+, 155 in AAA), Jake Lamb (113 wRC+) and heck, even Yasmani Grandal (134 wRC+) who can all play 1B behind Abreu. This, Nate, is exactly what depth looks like. Just a brutal take there too. Is anyone marking these down?

Abreu plays because he's a very good player. He was literally the MVP last year, lol. A half season doesn't just make that fact vanish. The guy wears 97 MPH fastballs off the knee cap and plays the next day, an absolute warrior who doesn't get near the credit he deserves.

You act like me calling Ruf a "weak side bench piece" is some kind of insult. It's literally the role he's deployed in, lol.

Trust me, if you could one day meet Darin Ruf, I think he'd really appreciate your affinity for him.

16 Jul 2021 18:00:57
LOL. For someone who was mad because the stats don't tell the full story, you sure seemed to pick stats that don't tell the full story, didn't you?

Darin Ruf was a below-average 1B who was cast-off by MLB teams until figuring out his swing and approach in the KBO, then came back to the states and became valuable.

As for Abreu, I literally don't care what he did for a shortened-season. A simple look at his career numbers suggests that 2020 was a massive FLUKE. An ABERRATION.

2018- 114 wRC+, .337 wOBA
2019- 116 wRC+, .344 wOBA
2020- 166 wRC+, .411 wOBA
2021- 117 wRC+, .339 wOBA

Yeah, 3 of 4 seasons being eerily consistent pretty much proves that Abreu's 2020 season was a complete fluke.

Meanwhile, let's check in on Darin Ruf. Unlike most KBO guys, Ruf hasn't seen a decrease in his state-side numbers.

2017 (KBO) - 141 wRC+, .414 wOBA
2018 (KBO) - 153 wRC+, .433 wOBA
2019 (KBO) - 149 wRC+, .409 wOBA
2020 (MLB) - 140 wRC+, .379 wOBA
2021 (MLB) - 158 wRC+, .404 wOBA

Again, you can dismiss them for being KBO numbers, but how frequent do we see guys mashing in KBO and continue to do so in the majors? Almost never.

You keep writing his numbers off simply because he's a "platoon guy", when in reality, Abreu should probably be a platoon guy as well. 107 wRC+ against righties? Yeah, Jose Abreu is a platoon guy playing full time LOLOLOL.

Let's check in on those 2021 splits:

Ruf:
vs. LHP- 205 wRC+
vs. RHP- 118 wRC+

Abreu
vs. LHP- 145 wRC+
vs. RHP- 107 wRC+

Yes, the "weak side platoon player" has better numbers from both sides of the plate than the "full time MVP".

Now, let's check in with the Giants other 1B options vs. RHP:

Belt- 131 wRC+
Wade- 146 wRC+

Yeah, there's literally zero reason for the Giants to employ their guy who is above average vs. right-handed pitching when they've got guys who have nearly elite numbers against them.

That you pretend this is some "knock" on Darin Ruf. that somehow, his "value" is less because the Giants have multiple excellent pieces at 1B is hilarious.

Darin Ruf, by legitimately every stat possible in 2021, is the better 1B than Jose Abreu. This isn't even remotely arguable.

Sorry that this FACT bothers you. I guess you can go get off to that MVP trophy Abreu won. I hear it's pretty shiny. Is the shine distracting you from the truth I'm presenting?

I guess if you need a minute or two to cope with this new reality, you can take it. Go outside. Punch a few things. Scream into the abyss. Gather yourself. After enough time, I firmly believe that you'll come back and realize that Darin Ruf is, by every possible account, the better 1B in 2021.

In 2020, Jose Abreu was the better 1B. Prior to 2020, Abreu was the better 1B.

In 2021, things have changed. It's okay. Things change. It's easier when you accept the change instead of fighting it. Just embrace it, Hubert. Darin Ruf is the better 1B.

Don't come responding until you're ready to live in the real world instead of White Sox fandom world.

Have a lovely day.

16 Jul 2021 19:06:37
"As for Abreu, I literally don't care what he did for a shortened-season. "

Then,

"Here's why Darin Ruf is better than Jose Abreu through 2021's first half"

Makes perfect sense.

16 Jul 2021 19:10:52
Also, you conveniently left out the first 4 years of Abreu's career where he was a 139 wRC+ hitter and only missed a total of 34 games.

Maybe you just forgot.

17 Jul 2021 19:14:49
Why do I care about what Jose Abreu did 4 years ago when we're talking about whose more valuable in 2021? Why is that remotely relevant?

In 2017, yes, Jose Abreu was more valuable than Darin Ruf. In 2020, yes, Jose Abreu was more valuable than Darin Ruf.

In 2021, Jose Abreu is not more valuable, or even as good, as Darin Ruf. This isn't my opinion. It's not "bias". The numbers literally tell us this is true.

And you just don't want to acknowledge it, mostly because you REFUSE to accept that you were wrong and admit that I'm 100% right on this.

17 Jul 2021 19:28:00
Just as another example to show how bad your writing Ruf off because he's a "platoon player", think of it this way.

If you have two restaurants, Company #1 serves only hamburgers, nothing else. They made 1 Billion dollars last quarter.

Company #2 serves a full menu and tons of options, but only made $500M last quarter.

You're trying to convince everyone and yourself that Company #2 is better because they do more, even though they make less. But in reality, no one cares that Company #2 makes a huge menu when most of the items are just average.

The Giants don't need Darin Ruf to make a bunch of items (although, as I've PROVEN, he's certainly capable) . They need him to be the Hamburger guy. If they want a Chicken Patty guy, they have someone else to fill that role.

The Giants are getting 3 times more production out of platoon 1B than the White Sox are out of their "reigning MVP" because they aren't asking Hamburger guys to be Chicken Patty guys, and they aren't asking Chicken Patty guys to be Hamburger Guys.

Maybe the White Sox should consider platooning Abreu. Perhaps they'd be better than 16-25 vs. decent baseball teams.

18 Jul 2021 01:31:50
The only problem with your comparison is that company 2 has made billions more over their existence while company 1 has ONLY done better than company 2 over a small 3 month stretch

Company 2 is the better company and the one you invest in long term, not the company with just a better short term streak.

Aaaannnnd as I type this Abreu fittingly pumps a ball 425 feet for a homer as the Sox extend their lead to 9-0 over the Astros ;)

18 Jul 2021 01:37:54
And for the 1millionth time, I’ve acknowledged that Darin Ruf is a a valuable player for the 2021 San Francisco Giants and a good find by Zaidi. Not sure what else you’re looking for. He isn’t a better player than Abreu even after having a better 1st half. Your argument here has never made a lick of sense. It’s really the end of the story.

18 Jul 2021 18:25:38
In 2021, he's OBJECTIVELY a better player than Jose Abreu. You won't concede the point, but then again, no one, literally no one, is accusing you of being reasonable.

Also, your rebuttal to the analogy was bad (or in your case, par for the course) . In this case, literally zero people care what Jose Abreu did prior to 2021. No one, except you.

What's also funny is that you're trying to sell Jose Abreu by his 2020 performance, and not his 2018 or 2019 performance, which, interestingly, mirrors his current performance. He had a season of incredible production, but that was a flash in the pan.

Meanwhile, Darin Ruf has been remarkably consistent for several seasons now, stretching even in the KBO (again, his ability to keep his KBO and MLB numbers the same is impressive) . You're actually buying a player who has a) shown his consistency, recently, and b) isn't revealing it's a massive, unbelievable fluke (unlike his competitor) .

You love to dismiss Ruf's 3-month stretch, but you desperately need Jose Abreu's huge 3-month stretch to keep your argument going.

Once again, the rules don't apply when they start hurting the White Sox.

Seriously, give it up.

18 Jul 2021 20:11:51
Right — we have the throw Abreu’s first 4 seasons out the window yet Ruf’s friggin KBO numbers are fair game. Lmao c'mon dude. Abreu was STILL 15-20 percent above average in his “down” years. That’s when you know you’re a damn good player. KBO is slightly better than AAA, it’s not the same as MLB at all.

Abreu — better career player and project better rest of career player, Ruf — objectively better so far in 2021. I haven’t dismissed Ruf’s numbers at all but keep pushing that for your own sanity.

Understand now? It’s really not that hard.

You say no one cares about Abreu’s career when in reality, a lot more do that Ruf’s 2021.

19 Jul 2021 21:12:55
Yes, because both of the last 4 years ACTUALLY DEFINE both players.

The numbers are available. Ruf's last 4 seasons are remarkably consistent.

Abreu's numbers, minus one outlier of a shortened-season, are remarkably consistent. The player Abreu was in 2018 and 2019--mediocre, slightly above average 1B--is the same player he's looking to be in 2021.

As for KBO, I've mentioned, TWICE, that the KBO are bad comparisons, which makes it all the more impressive that Darin Ruf is keeping pace with him. It should actually make us wonder, did the resurgence happen in Korea, or in San Francisco?

And no, in 2021, for the millionth flipping time, Abreu is not the better player. He SHOULD have higher numbers, simply because he plays 2.5x more than Darin Ruf, and yet, Ruf is outpacing him in almost every single stat, minus RBI.

Jose Abreu after 369 PAs - 1.4 WAR
Darin Ruf after 149 PAs- 1.6 WAR

Darin Ruf is producing at a rate of 286% greater than Jose Abreu. There's literally no objective way in which you can deny this reality, or try to pretend that, somehow, Jose Abreu is still, right now, the better player. He's literally not.

And I don't care about Jose Abreu's career when we're talking about 2021 production. It's 100% irrelevant to the conversation surrounding 2021.

If you used to have $1M in your account, but now, it's only 250K, but I have 750K, but never had a million, I still have more money than you. I'm CURRENTLY doing better than you. Why would anyone care that you once were better?

We're not talking about Darin Ruf vs. Jose Abreu in 2018. We're not even talking about Ruf vs. Abreu in 2023.

We're talking Ruf vs. Abreu in 2021. And OBJECTIVELY, meaning not based around feelings but actual facts, Darin Ruf is the better 1B right now, by a margin of almost 300% (3x) .

The fact that you continue to try and act like this isn't the case simply proves how insane unreasonable you truly are.

Then again, if I'm expecting the guy who thought he could get a legitimately good player for Jonathan Stiever, I'm probably setting my expectations a little too high.

Someone could project that the White Sox win 175 games in a season, and you'd defend it like the massive homer you truly are. It's actually adorable.

19 Jul 2021 23:27:39
Nate -- Darin Ruf has only produced better than Jose Abreu from April 2021 to July 2021. In every other non-ultra-granular time frame in their existences, Abreu has been better. Moving forward, even in for the rest of 2021, not one projection system likes Ruf more. In the grand scheme of player evaluation, this matters much more that a 3-month stretch.

When determining how good of a baseball player one is at a current time, are you telling me you ONLY consider their last 140 PAs? That's insane. Like, Jose Abreu is a better baseball player than Darin Ruf, even though Ruf has been .2 WAR better than Abreu this year. This is common knowledge. You can't just assume Ruf would produce the same WAR as Abreu given the same number of ABs because he's literally never shown the capability to do that. It's just not how it works. Ruf is not, nor will he ever be, a 7-win talent, and you're acting like he is.

Again, it's like me insinuating that Liam Hendriks would be a 7-win player if La Russa only pitched him 200 innings. It's not realistic.

I guess Ruf is also better overall than Yelich, Rizzo, and Stanton too bc of this 3.5 month stretch?

I still don't understand what continuously saying that "Ruf has been better than Abreu so far in 2021" does for any point? What IS the point? What does it justify Ruf as given I've already called him a good player?

20 Jul 2021 13:57:46
"Darin Ruf has only produced better than Jose Abreu from April 2021 to July 2021."

Coincidentally, the time frame for my "Darin Ruf is better" argument is is April 2021 to July 2021.

"When determining how good of a baseball player one is at a current time, are you telling me you ONLY consider their last 140 PAs? "

I mean, we COULD realistically do that. But considering that Abreu has less WAR in over 350 PAs than Ruf does in 150, I don't think it'd help your argument.

"Like, Jose Abreu is a better baseball player than Darin Ruf, even though Ruf has been .2 WAR better than Abreu this year. This is common knowledge. "

In what measurable way? How? Defend it beyond being a sloberry, annoying White Sox homer. Give me statistical justification for saying the guy who has been less productive over 350 PA than the guy over 150 is somehow better.

You keep saying he's better, but you give zero evidence of this claim. Again, we're talking 2021. Not 2020 (Abreu's FLUKE season), or even 2017. Keep it to 2021 and justify it. I've went above and beyond explaining why I believe Ruf is better. You just say "bUt MuH wHiTe SoX! "

Defend it.

"You can't just assume Ruf would produce the same WAR as Abreu given the same number of ABs because he's literally never shown the capability to do that. It's just not how it works. Ruf is not, nor will he ever be, a 7-win talent, and you're acting like he is. "

I didn't say Ruf was 7-WAR talent. I said that if we equalize their PAs to a similar number, Ruf's WAR is at a rate of 6.8 WAR (now 6.5). It's a pretty common practice, including ZiPS, which is what's used in those handy ROS projections you cited. It's not manipulative. We're literally just discussing the rate of production.

If you wish, we can literally just look at their current numbers, as I've relentlessly focused on. Darin Ruf is a better player, OBJECTIVELY, STATISTICALLY, FACTUALLY, LITERALLY than Jose Abreu, in 40% of the opportunities.

For someone who spent such time arrogantly defending "surplus value" on this site, THIS is value. Let's recap:

The Giants, in 2021, currently, are getting 1.5 WAR out of Darin Ruf, as a part-time, platoon first baseman. They are paying 1.25M for that production.

The White Sox, in 2021, CURRENTLY, are getting 1.5 WAR out of Abreu (hey look, Abreu finally caught up. It only took him 250% more time! ) as a full time first baseman. They are paying him $17M for this production.

If you could get 1.5 WAR, would you rather pay 1.5M or 17M? Without a thought, you'd pick Darin Ruf. EVERY GM would right now. Especially considering that Ruf allows you to find a LHH 1B, like the Giants currently have, who is putting up 0.7 WAR at the league minimum.

So, to bring it all together, Darin Ruf is the better 1B STATISTICALLY. He's the better 1B in terms of VALUE. He's the better 1B in terms of PAYROLL IMPLICATIONS.

But yeah, keep acting like Abreu is better simply because ZiPS projects him better going forward. FWIW, that comment shows you literally don't even care about how ZiPS works. Szymborski gets criticized for this all the time, and every time, his defense is that there's not enough history for the projections to give someone like Ruf the edge. It'll NATURALLY favor Jose Abreu, because that's how projection systems work.

And again, your own projection, Fangraph's own projections, shoot, even my own projections, really seemed to be WAYYYYYYY off on the 2021 Giants.

I'm really unsure why you're acting so confident that THIS TIME you'll be right.

20 Jul 2021 14:32:32
Also, if your argument that Jose Abreu is better in 2021, because of PROJECTIONS and not, I don't know, actual production, then it's clear that you're just trying to latch on to anything you can to make you sound right.

Again, we're talking the same projections that put the Giants around 75 wins and couldn't project a single thing that the Giants did (by your own admission) . So as I've pressed, why such dogged faith in them now?

If they failed so massively to project what the Giants would do April to July, why are you so dang sure they'll be able to accurately do so from August to October?

Again, it's just further proof you're trying to latch onto ANYTHING you can find to make sure you sound right.

So let's end this on two points:

1. Your brain goes into overdrive at the idea that someone thinks someone is better than a White Sox player. I've proven this relentlessly. You couldn't handle me criticizing Carson Fulmer and Cliff Politte (! ) on this site. LOLOLOLOL.

You legitimately can't handle it when someone doesn't LOVVVVVEEEE the White Sox as much as you.

2. You'll legitimately say anything. ANYTHING to help you feel and sound correct. Mind you, it doesn't have to be correct. Again, you couldn't actually stand any ground on your claim that Abreu is better in 2021 than Darin Ruf, so you lazily resorted to citing projection systems.

It's okay to grow from others, Kenneth. It really is. You can learn and adapt. I've even learned and adapted from things YOU said on here. For example, I've changed my view on how teams value players, in large part because of our conversation on this site.

I learned to focus more on Rick Hahn's international signings, especially those out of Cuba, because of things you said.

It is possible, and acceptable, to show a bit of humility and recognize when you're wrong. Jose Abreu can be worse than Darin Ruf and it doesn't make you a bad person. I might razz you a bit for it.

But if you want to continue to arrogantly keep building this stupid house of cards you're trying to build, then you're only going to become bitter when it all crashes down on you. You've built a persona of insulting and being arrogant towards people who don't view the White Sox the same way you do on this website. And now that someone spent WAYYYY more time proving his points, you have an option:

Learn from it or continue to arrogantly refuse to accept facts that don't put your favorite team in the best light.

It's more than okay to pick the first option. In fact, for your own sake, I'd personally recommend it.

21 Jul 2021 03:11:29
It's now been 5 or 6 times in this thread where I've conceded that Darin Ruf's 2021 season has (had) been better than Abreu. I've actually said it so many times that since we've started, Abreu has closed the fWAR gap with Ruf after a 165 wRC+ over his last 25 PAs. In that same time frame, Ruf has 8 PAs (this should be telling), and my guess is that Abreu will now start to create a gap with Ruf. He's a notorious 2nd half hitter and he'll likely be getting 4 new lineup-mates for added protection.

Alas, they are both good at what they do, respectively. Ruf is a good part-time platoon guy/ pinch hitter on a good NL team, and Abreu is good at being a franchise cornerstone and team captain for a good AL team.

My point in every single one of these rebuttals is that Abreu's 2021 so far represents 8% of his PAs, so I don't really care. If Ruf could put up a 120 wRC+ over 276 PAs in 88 games, someone would pay him to do that and a lot more than $1.5 million. The fact of the matter is, he can't, and that's ok. He's still a very nice puzzle piece, but he's not better than Jose Abreu.

Why? Because when you are determining who is a better player at any time, only looking at their last 140 PAs or even 350 PAs is a terrible methodology. Jose Abreu is better because he's amassed a 132 wRC+ over more than 4500 PAs and whose WORST offensive season was 114 wRC+. Abreu has 376 PAs this year, Ruf won't even get there this year and he's never even had 300 PAs in a season. Now, if you want to take the 60 games from last year and 94 games from this year and make that your sample size, I (and every single other rational baseball analyst) would say that's much more reasonable to determine who the better baseball player IS.

Abreu's been a 4-win player (638 PAs) while Ruf (259 PAs) is at 2.2 WAR. And if you want to say "omg only 40% of the PAs", well yeah, but for like the 5th time, it's not realistic that Ruf would ever get 638 PAs over 148 games.

There's my defense. That's all the proof I need.

If you asked any semi-intelligent baseball fan who the better player is overall, the reigning AL MVP would be literally everyone's pick but yours.

All you have to do is ask yourself, would you trade Darin Ruf straight up for Jose Abreu?

No? Exactly.

And i'm not partial to ZiPS. I was talking about literally any projection system you can find. They all like Abreu more ROS. There's no dogged faith in the projections, but you'd think at least one of them would like Ruf more given that he's clearly the better baseball player, right?

21 Jul 2021 03:38:46
Abreu tonight - 3 for 5 with a homer, double and triple. He's been on fire since you started this asinine comparison, but hey I say you keep it up.

21 Jul 2021 14:57:27
"All you have to do is ask yourself, would you trade Darin Ruf straight up for Jose Abreu? "

Why would I? I'm getting the same wins above replacement for $1.25M that Jose Abreu gives you at 1360% of the upcharge. Does surplus value not matter anymore? I'm not mocking you. I'm being dead serious.

Ask yourself this question: who is more likely to give his team value over the next 18 months?

Abreu will be owed just south of 20M in 2022, his age 35 season. At 7M per win, he needs to have a 2.8 WAR season. He's done that exactly one time since 2017. And it was a 60-game season. Once. 1. Uno.

Darin Ruf will get paid about 4-5M in arbitration. At the same rate, Ruf needs to have a 0.6 WAR season. He's done that each of his last two. In fact, he's pretty well shot right past it both times (after adjustments for 2020).

I'm not saying that Ruf would be traded for Abreu, but if surplus value is a thing, then Ruf, by literally every possible way to measure it, would be better. There's no argument you can make against that.

Abreu is more than likely, if his trend is any indication, going to present negative value. And that's probably fine for the White Sox. They are getting crazy value around the field, they can support the weight of Jose Abreu not being worth the money.


Player A- Has a 2.5 WAR season at age 35 and costs nearly 20M.
Player B- Has a 1.5 WAR season at age 35 and costs nearly 5M.

Savvy teams like the Giants or the Rays are always going to pick Player B. Because his contract allows them to give more money to get more production around him. Let's say both players' teams go and throw 30M at Kris Bryant next winter.

Player A's team has 50M locked into him and Bryant. Player B's team has 35M. That's now $15M that Player B's team could use to get a starter and a reliever. So now, for 50M, Player A's team got 2 guys. Player B's got 4.

Let's also say Kris Bryant has a 5 win season in 2022. Now, here's how it balances out:

Player A + Bryant - 7.5 WAR, 50M.
Player B + Bryant- 6.5 WAR, 35M.

All Player B's team needs is for his starter and reliever to have 0.5 WAR seasons each to match the production. That's it.

So yeah, Darin Ruf is the more valuable player when it comes to trades. And yeah, a smart baseball team wouldn't trade him, straight up, for Jose Abreu.

Unless, of course, you want to argue surplus value doesn't exist solely for the purpose of Jose Abreu, which wouldn't surprise me. Consistency isn't exactly your finest quality.

21 Jul 2021 16:35:59
And the idea that full-time production is inherently more valuable than part-time is so archaic, I honestly have to wonder how old you are.

This, for the most part, has been your argument. Abreu puts up 650 PAs and Darin Ruf doesn't, therefore, Abreu is more valuable. Ruf is a platoon player, and Abreu mans the position by himself, so Abreu is more valuable.

Forward-thinking teams don't care if the guy is a platoon player. To them, that doesn't make him less valuable. In fact, it might actually ENHANCE his value, because you aren't using him in spots where he's not that great.

Consider this: a team like the Rays or Giants aren't going to employ Jose Abreu full-time. If he were on the Giants, Zaidi would likely bench Abreu versus right-handed pitchers. His 119 wRC+ against RHH would take a back seat to someone like LaMonte Wade, Jr., who is hitting 156 against RHP. The ONLY reason the Giants would use Abreu on the daily might be due to sunk cost, but even then, they don't seem to operate in that regard.

Now, because the White Sox have a cheapskate owner, I'd imagine there is some sunk cost decision-making taking place. Abreu is their most expensive player. So I can't imagine them trying to tell Reinsdorf they are benching him for Sheets, who throughout the minors, has destroyed righties.

In other words, you're basing "value" on organizational philosophy and front-office decision making, as opposed to, I don't know, the actual production on the field.

The part-time vs. full-time argument is archaic. And in any Fortune 500 company (of which, sports teams would likely be included if they qualified), a full-timer being out-produced by a part-timer would result in the full=timer getting canned, especially when that full timer is making 9x as much money.

There's no context to justify that. None. Any MLB front office worth their salt would see Darin Ruf as more valuable, except maybe the Rockies. So congrats, you're as forward thinking as the Colorado Rockies!

Just accept that Darin Ruf is a) having a better 2021 and b) more valuable than Jose Abreu.

It's okay to accept things that are true. It's also so, so freeing.

21 Jul 2021 16:59:02
Abreu is on pace for exactly a 2.8-win season this year and over the last couple of weeks, he's gotten back to his MVP production. You're "fluke season" narrative is starting to take a hit.

Last year he was on pace for north of 6 wins in a normal year. Would he have gotten there? Maybe, maybe not. You, again, arbitrability pick post-2017 as your cut off point solely because 2018 was Abreu's worst season (again, an absolutely putrid 114 wRC+) and because in 2017, he was worth 4.3 wins and a 139 wRC+.

Your scenario for 2022 has Ruf producing at his 90th+ percentile while Abreu isn't. It's convenient for your argument's sake, but then again, who's shown more longevity thus far? ZiPS has Ruf at -0.7 fWAR next year. Oh wait, you don't like that one, it's not good for your argument.

Surplus value matters, but calculating it based on scaled results from 140 PAs is not how it works. You are really overthinking this. Your argument has also interestingly shifted from Ruf being "objectively better" to "but but but surplus value" after Abreu's .5-win couple of weeks (which is even better than his 2020 production rate) and Ruf's 71 wRC+ over the same span with half of his PAs as a pinch hitter.

Funny how that works.

21 Jul 2021 18:47:40
LOL. That "MVP" production was was 2.6 wins over 60 (SIXTY! ) games, not 162. We're 96 games in (36 more than the entirety of last year), and Abreu isn't even to his 2020 production.

And 2.8 WAR isn't even close to an MVP-level season. Unless you get a Ryan Tepera situation, where someone meant to click Jose Altuve, and instead clicked Jose Abreu, Abreu won't get a single MVP vote this year. Not one.

21 Jul 2021 18:49:12
A full-time player IS more valuable. The Giants have to not only pay the same for their first base production, they also have to use an extra roster spot for essentially the same production (again, save me the 2021 first half numbers as your only sample) . That spot could be used to platoon elsewhere, carry a pinch runner/ defensive replacement (i. e. Billy Hamilton) or an extra reliever, all of which valuable.

"Just accept that Darin Ruf is a) having a better 2021 and b) more valuable than Jose Abreu. "

Here we go again, this is objectively false. Remember your rationale? Abreu now has a higher WAR thru 2021, LMAO. So who really needs to accept new things, Nathan?

21 Jul 2021 19:06:06
"Your scenario for 2022 has Ruf producing at his 90th+ percentile while Abreu isn't. It's convenient for your argument's sake, but then again, who's shown more longevity thus far? ZiPS has Ruf at -0.7 fWAR next year. Oh wait, you don't like that one, it's not good for your argument. "

Right. We've established this, Adrian.

These projections also had Darin Ruf as a 0.2 WIN player and the Giants at 75 wins. So, pardon me for a second if I'm a bit skeptical that they can predict what a guy will do in 2022. For what it's worth, those same predictions also have Willians Astudillo at 1.6 WAR at 1B. The guy who, over his last 143 PAs has been worth -0.4 WAR. Yes, him. They project him to be worth 1.6 WAR in 2022.

Or Pat Valaika at 1.7 WAR. (Only 0.2 less than Nick Madrigal, FYI) . Valaika's past 413 PAs? -0.9 WAR. But yes, ZiPS 2022. Tell me more about how his next 450 will be worth 1.7.

Or Austin Allen (109 PAs, -0.2 WAR), will be worth 1.4 WAR, higher than Tucker Barnhart, Buster Posey, or even James McCann.

You want me to keep going? We could talk about how even ZiPS 2022 doesn't have any faith in Jose Abreu. Only 1.2 WAR. Ouchie. They currently believe that Willians Astudillo will have a better 2022 than Jose Abreu. Consider that. A guy so bad, even the 40-55 Minnesota Twins optioned to the Minors.

If we go by the ZiPS 2022 projections, Willians Astudillo is a better and more valuable 1B than Jose Abreu. I fully expect you to lobby for a Abreu-Astudillo trade now.

I mean, did you even bother looking at the names on those lists? The fact you even brought them up shows that you have no idea how the projections even work. Dan Szymborski has relentlessly and breathlessly referred to why certain players, especially those that go overseas for a while, are tough to project. ZiPS requires MLB numbers from 2019, for example, but Darin Ruf doesn't have 2019 MLB numbers (he was in KBO), so the system negatively grades him. It also negatively grades him on 2018. And 2017. So that's three full seasons that impacts a "projection".

More comical ZiPS 2022 projections:
Tim Beckham has the same WAR as Jazz Chisholm.
Nomar Mazara has a higher WAR (0.5) than Andrew Vaughn (0.2).
Rico Garcia (0.8) with a higher WAR than Garrett Crochet (0.4).

I can keep going if you want me to. So unless you want to admit that you think Rico Garcia, who has pitched 16 MLB innings to the tune of a 7.31 ERA is going to be twice as productive as the White Sox 2020 1st Round Draft pick, I'd kindly suggest you don't take much stock into ZiPS 2022.

21 Jul 2021 19:48:01
It's also hilarious that you're like, "YOU CAN'T USE THE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE! " and then in the very next breath, you try to use 73 PAs in July to disprove my case about how there's not enough to prove Darin Ruf is better.

By the way, in the month of July, let's take a look at the numbers, since you REALLY want to go there.

Abreu- 5 HR, .328 AVG/ 1.055 OPS, 181 wRC+
Ruf- 4 HR, .286 AVG/ 1.214 OPS, 214 wRC+.

Your "71 wRC+" argument comes after 10 (ten) plate appearances. Abreu's is 25 PAs. So, for sake of "fairness", let's look at their last 25 PAs. I don't think you'll like this at all.

Abreu- .318/ 1.355, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 253 wRC+
Ruf- .292/ 1.308, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 234 wRC+

You tried to sneak in a 25 PA vs. 10 PA comparison LOLOLOL. Each player's last 25 PAs seems awfully similar, do they not?

Seriously, give it up dude. You're spiraling downward in your attempt to sound really smart, but you continue to look bad.

It's actually hilarious how wrong you continue to be, and how desperate your arguments are.

Notice how you went from "Abreu is better overall" to "Abreu has been sooo much better over the last 25 PAs" (which is demonstrably false) .

And "well, ZiPS 2022 says Ruf is only a -0.7 WAR player next year" (I literally don't care about projections, especially ones for 2022, when we're discussing 2021).

You should honestly sit a couple plays out. You're trying WAYYY to hard and getting absolutely nowhere.

22 Jul 2021 01:55:22
Hey, Abreu is now the better player by your standards. Your argument is dead. You still actually think that Darin Ruf is better at baseball than Jose Abreu. Can we get a sanity check?

And guess what, Einstein, 25:10 is the same as 381:143. Yeah, math is hard. You want to go by a small sample size, I'll raise you and just go proportionally smaller. 25 PAs is all it took for Abreu to overtake Ruf in WAR, lol. You still don't understand that you don't get to compare Abreu to Ruf ABs 1:1 because That. Will. Never. Happen. For the third time, it's the same as me comparing Liam Hendriks or Kimbrel innings to any established SP and saying "well yeah Hendriks is on a 320 K pace".

Slow down, breathe a little bit. Let's try to comprehend what I'm teaching you about sample size and player comparison by player type. You're quite clearly struggling.

"Notice how you went from "Abreu is better overall" to "Abreu has been sooo much better over the last 25 PAs" (which is demonstrably false) . "

Nope. I said since this thread was started. It isn't my fault Ruf hasn't played more than 10 PAs since then. But that's what what platoon guys and pinch hitters do. Abreu is both better overall in 2021 AND since July 11.

22 Jul 2021 13:12:13
"It's now been 5 or 6 times in this thread where I've conceded that Darin Ruf's 2021 season has (had) been better than Abreu. "

Shot.

"Abreu is both better overall in 2021 AND since July 11."

Chaser.

22 Jul 2021 13:27:39
And no, you used the July 11th mark because it was the ONLY THING you could find.

You've also referenced it three times, so we can all tell you're super excited about a 1-week span of baseball games.

So, if you're trying to use it to justify that you can't determine anything from it, then what's your point? Where do we draw the line?

To write off the platoon PAs simply because they are less than your guys' is silly, because it fails to comprehend the nature of platooning. If you'd prefer, we can rope in LaMonte Wade, Jr. to give us the fuller picture, but to write off 10 HR in 150 PAs, or 1.5 WAR in that same span, which is damn impressive, by literally any standard, because you don't think it's very many PAs is silly.

Think of it this way: Ruf is getting a win every 100 plate appearances. Abreu is getting one every 226. So, here me out:

The Giants don't need Darin Ruf to have 400 plate appearances to be worth what Jose Abreu is worth. They simply don't.

Also, your Hendriks vs. a starting pitcher argument is, yet again, pure nonsense. No one is expecting Liam Hendriks to have a higher WAR than a pitcher.

BUT, at the end of the year, if Hendriks had a higher WAR than, say, Alex Wood, would you sit back and say, "Alex Wood is the better pitcher? "

No, you'd argue, breathlessly, that the White Sox pitcher is better. And you would conveniently forget this argument.

You'd also be right. Who on earth cares that in span, Hendriks will have 70 IP and Wood has around 140? Why would that matter? If nothing, it makes Wood look worse, because he had double the chances to provide value.

Jose Abreu has had 2.5x more chances to provide value than Darin Ruf, and yet, he has 0.2 WAR more than him.

I repeat: The Giants don't need Darin Ruf to have 400 plate appearances for him to be as good as Jose Abreu.

Sit on that for a moment.

22 Jul 2021 15:09:53
Since this conversation has gone on WAYYY too long, I'll conclude with this.

If you're tasked with building a baseball team and you have to pick from 2 34-year-old first basemen, and you're presented with the following data, which would you pick:

Player A: 2.9 WAR
Player B: 1.9 WAR

At the very first glance, you'd pick Player A. We all would. But as you honestly take a deeper look, you see more added information:

Player A: 2.9 WAR, 650 PAs.
Player B: 1.9 WAR, 200 PAs.

Your view would begin to shift. More information is discovered:

Player A: 2.9 WAR, 650 PAs. Salary: 17.667M
Player B: 1.9 WAR, 200 PAs. Salary: 1.275M

Now, there's literally zero questions. You're picking Player B. Because not only is he giving you 1 Win per 100 PAs (compared to one every 232), but he's doing so at 7% of the cost. For another $16M, you can more than make up for that 1-win difference between the two.

You began by stating that the stat lines don't tell the full story. And you're right. They don't tell us that Darin Ruf has been ridiculously efficient in his plate appearances. They don't tell us that Jose Abreu, by that comparison, has been an abject disappointment in 2021.

But the story it does tell is that Darin Ruf is clearly the guy you're picking, if you have to pick the two. Literally, if Rick Hahn could choose between Jose Abreu and Darin Ruf in 2021, if he was worth his salt (I'm not convinced), he'd pick Darin Ruf.

To get 1 Win per 100 plate appearances, and only have to pay a million bucks? Or get 1 win every 226, and pay $17M.

If this is a difficult decision, then it's evident you can't be taken seriously. It's also clear that you're more interested in standing on your own arrogance as opposed to trying to learn and adapt.

Wait a second. Holding onto bad arguments. Valuing archaic ideas like full-time vs. platoon. Unwilling to change from your point of view. Ridiculous White Sox homer.

AM I TALKING TO TONY LA RUSSA?

22 Jul 2021 17:15:01
"And no, you used the July 11th mark because it was the ONLY THING you could find. "

No, it's literally when this conversation started.

You started this thread by saying that Ruf was the better baseball player because he, at that current time, had the higher fWAR, and therefore he was an objectively better player. I conceded that point, and it was all you said you needed to prove your overall point. I argued that more than a half season's numbers should be used to judge player quality, but you didn't agree. I still feel that way. I wouldn't now argue that Abreu is clearly better than Ruf because of solely 2021 number IF that wasn't the original logic you used against me.

Then as time went on, Abreu played everyday like he always does and Ruf played 60% less, which is exactly the rate at which Abreu has outpaced Rug in PAs this season. Abreu, in the matter of like 10 days, gained .5 fWAR and passed Ruf. Now, yes, I can say that Abreu is both the better player overall (remember, I am only using your original logic the same way you did) because of him having a higher fWAR, and since July 11th. I'm not making the argument that the "since July 11th" numbers matter, that was more of an irony thing.

My next question to you would have been, if 140ish PAs of Ruf outproducing Abreu was enough for you to call him the better overall player, is 100 too little? How about 75? 50? 25? Where is the line drawn? That also adds to the context of me bringing up "since July 11".

Abreu is an accomplished and consistent hitter. This is evidenced by you calling his 125 wRC+, near 3-win paced season an "abject disappointment" and his worst season being at 114. He has set a high bar for himself, and his haters I guess.

If the Giants didn't have Brandon Belt (who they are paying almost just as much as Abreu only to hit RHP) and LaMonte Wade, then Ruf wouldn't be as valuable as he is to the Giants. Credit to Zaidi for having those options and being able to deploy them all optimally, but that's not speaking to the quality of player that Ruf is. If the Giants had no one to play 1B against RHP, Ruf mashing lefties wouldn't matter as much. If your argument is then that Ruf also has a 116 wRC+ against RHP too, then why don't the Giants play him everyday and see what happens? They could move Belt or Wade and use the roster spot to improve elsewhere. They won't because they're smarter than that and they know that Ruf playing everyday would not be nearly as good.

"Literally, if Rick Hahn could choose between Jose Abreu and Darin Ruf in 2021, if he was worth his salt (I'm not convinced), he'd pick Darin Ruf. "

This is just not true. Both Hahn and Zaidi would pick Abreu over Ruf because with the latter, you have to find another 1B who plays the other 60-70% of the time and is therefore the more crucial piece to the success of production at 1B. Luckily for them, they have, and reasons like that are why they have won 63% of their games

So, the Giants have paid ~$9 million for ~2.1 WAR of production at 1B this year so far (all while using 3 roster spots), while the Sox have paid ~$8.5 million for 1.7 WAR from one guy. Zaidi's brilliance has saved the team $715k/ WAR compared to employing Abreu. I'd then probably argue the value of 2 roster spots is worth more than $715k over 95 games.

Hahn and Zaidi would take Abreu in a heartbeat, and it's not close. Ruf is good at what he does, but what he does isn't enough for full-time 1B production.

23 Jul 2021 04:24:30
If you and I ran a 5K, and I ran it in 18 minutes, while you ran it in 30 minutes, you would argue that you were the better runner because you were able to run for 30 minutes and I didn't show that I could.

"Oh, Ruf has the same WAR in significantly less PAs? Well, it's because he's not good enough to play that many PAs! "

I hope you understand how incredibly pathetic you sound. It's actually become quite sad.

Have a good one, Patrick. Enjoy the swift exit to whatever AL East team the White Sox play.

23 Jul 2021 12:41:33
Oof, throw a couple more facts at Statbook and he'll continue to use the same extraneous analogy in different forms hoping that'll save him before settling with

"yeah, but, but the WHITE SOX WILL LOOSE! "

Talk about pathetic.

Ruf doesn't have the same WAR though, Nathan, and is therefore the worst overall player. Please refer to your own logic in the above thread.

Thank you.

26 Jul 2021 14:57:40
You know, Chi Sox, I noticed you stopped throwing out there how excited you were over meaningless PAs against the Twins, I wondered, how good is Abreu against decent teams.

And how good is Darin Ruf against decent teams?

Because it's really, really easy to tee off against the Royals, Tigers, Twins and Orioles. And the results were staggering.

Here were the splits:
Abreu vs. .500 teams- .169/ .603 OPS, 9 HR, .268 wOBA, 68 wRC+
Abreu vs. sub-.500 teams- .343/ 1.020 OPS, 9 HR, .426 wOBA, 170 wRC+

Now, for the "weak side platoon bench piece", Mr. Darin Ruf:
Ruf vs. .500 teams- .280/ .973, 6 HR, .417 wOBA, 164 wRC+
Ruf vs. sub-.500 teams- .241/ .918, 4 HR, .383 wOBAm 142 wRC+

When playing potentially playoff caliber teams, Darin Ruf hits 164 wRC+, Abreu hits nearly 100 points less (68).

So the question is: who do you want at bat against a good baseball team?

If you say Jose Abreu, you're lying to yourself.

26 Jul 2021 22:20:44
Abreu can't control who he plays, Nate. The Royals, Tigers and Twins are all in division. He's going to play each of those teams 19 times. Naturally, better pitching, which is usually on better teams, is tougher to hit.

Who would have thought?

If you think Ruf hitting better this season against .500 or better teams is some kind of gotcha, I don't know what to tell you. I'm sure if Abreu was a trade candidate, teams would look at his numbers and say "well gosh darn, you know, he really struggles against .500 or better teams, we better not acquire him. "

Do yourself a favor and google "selection bias".

27 Jul 2021 12:06:37
"Abreu can't control who he plays, Nate. "

Neither can Darin Ruf. And yet, he's mashing good pitching, whereas Jose Abreu is not.

And yes, a player's ability to hit decent pitching is ABSOLUTELY going to be a factor in front offices. If I have the Dodgers, Padres, Brewers, and the Mets still on the schedule, I don't want to spend big prospects on a guy who has hit 68 wRC+ against those caliber teams. And I certainly would be hesitant to add that bat for the postseason.

If you don't think teams are looking at how players perform against good teams, I honestly don't know what to tell you.

Heck, the Giants literally got a great return for a pitcher with a 6+ ERA because of THREE (3) solid relief starts against the Cubs and Phillies. He had 4 total relief appearances that year for the Giants.

27 Jul 2021 12:12:57
Let's put it another way, if the Dodgers, for example, were looking at acquiring Jose Abreu, mostly to help bail Rick Hahn out of that terrible contract, he would probably be more interested in how Abreu plays against teams like the Giants and Padres and not so much the Rockies and Diamondbacks.

Once again, I'm sorry that the information given doesn't mix with your need for Jose Abreu to be this incredible baseball player.

I'm sorry that it, once again, proves you completely wrong.

And I'm sorry that your pathetic attempts to dismiss this information is falling on deaf ears. Anyone with brain cells to rub together can see how desperate you are.

ALL I'm doing is continuing to put information (read: stats) that shows that Ruf is better than Abreu right now.

All you're doing is using silly, subjective things like, "if they were both up as trade candidates. " or "well, Abreu was MVP last year". Never a single stat. Not one. Except a string of stats from 25 randomly selected plate appearances to try and prove my stats wrong, apparently.

It's literally the most pathetic attempt you've made on this site. And that says a lot, considering who I'm dealing with.

Look, Brandon, life is a heckuva lot easier when you just take a deep breath, run a few laps, and shake off the angry feels over facts you don't like.

Go give it a shot. Maybe watch some rhythmic gymnastics in the Olympics and give baseball a break. This isn't looking good for you.

Toodles.

 


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