MLB rumours 4

07 Dec 2021 20:51:32
NY Mets finish Offseason:
(not saying they'll sign all but these are players they should consider)

manager: Buck Showalter, Matt Quatraro or Geren

Sign pitchers:
Starter - Rondon

Pen
R McHugh
L Deikman, Chafin, Hand

Bench Depth
Josh Harrison, Joc Pederson

02 Dec 2021 04:02:57
JBJ and lesser prospects for Hunter Renfroe.

To think, the Brewers missed their chance at acquiring Dallas Keuchel and his 18M salary!

Dang. Their loss.

02 Dec 2021 15:00:09
Could have saved two pretty good prospects! Good thing Milwaukee's farm system is already elite.

02 Dec 2021 20:42:54
But what they needed more than those prospects: an 18M #5 starter. Tough luck.

29 Nov 2021 16:36:11
White Sox-Braves trade:

Braves get: Craig Kimbrel

White Sox get: Ronald Acuna, Jr.


How could the Braves ever turn down getting a top 10 reliever in the league for a guy with a busted up ACL?

Chi Sox logic.

29 Nov 2021 18:52:57
Guys, Natedog is really struggling to cope right now. He's posting ridiculous trades and slapping my name on it, creating friends on this forum to agree with him because his takes are that bad, and his team even lost Kevin Gausman after I was correct about his market.

Let's support him in this time of need.

30 Nov 2021 16:25:28
Funny thing is, this is more realistic than literally any trade proposal Chi Sox has ever made.

Again, you know it's bad when the exact idea he came up was mocked openly by Mike Petriello on Twitter, along with other baseball guys.

30 Nov 2021 17:54:37
Which trade are you alluding to, Nathan?

30 Nov 2021 19:16:10
Jean Segura for Craig Kimbrel LMAOOOO.

01 Dec 2021 14:24:30
Kevin Gausman for $84 million LMAOOOO. Remember, he said he wanted to return to SF. I was reliably told by you.

01 Dec 2021 18:38:19
I mean, he said it in multiple interviews. Grant Brisbee, Alex Pavolovic, Kerry Crowley, and Andrew Baggerly ALL mentioned the comment.

He then further indicated that his feelings were hurt that the Giants weren't as hot on his trail as he wished they were.

It turns out, the Toronto Blue Jays offered more money than the Giants were, and more years (rumor mill circling that the Giants offered 4/ 90 to Gausman) .

So saying that Gausman wanted to return wasn't made up gobbledygook like we're used to seeing from you. It was a quote straight from the man himself.

01 Dec 2021 19:12:16
Gausman's quote to The Athletic:

“To be honest, I don’t think the Giants expected me to pitch as well as I did this year, ” Gausman told The Athleitc. “So I’m not putting my eggs into one basket. I’m trying to focus on what I can control right now, which is basically nothing. But yeah, I hope they’ll call me. And honestly, if they don’t, my feelings probably will be hurt because I felt I was a part of something special. ”

His quote to MLB's Maria Guardado:

"“I've kind of hopped around the last couple of years. I felt like I made some good relationships and then had to leave. I just know what I'm getting myself into, know what to expect. I talked from day one just about how great everybody treated me and my family here. That definitely was part of it, but I’ve really enjoyed my time here so far. I really liked all my teammates. "

He mentioned, on video, in an October 3rd Tweet from @NBCSGiants that he "grew up a Giants fan. "

But yes, please continue on how I was one year off on my contract prediction.

But hey, how'd that Joey Wendle for Craig Kimbrel trade go for the White Sox?

01 Dec 2021 19:47:34
So if you're keeping track at home, we have:

Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) .

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Wendle and Kiermaier.

We have: Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura (a trade literally mocked by a guy from MLB. com)

We have: Kevin Gausman to the White Sox.

We have: Dallas Keuchel for Jackie Bradley Jr.

And my woes were that I suggested the Giants don't offer more than a 4-year deal to Gausman.

More for the record:

"Although, 76 wins is a good current 2021 projection for Zaidi's Giants. So he may be right on track for a playoff berth in 2027."

You were only SIX SEASONS OFF, my guy. Jesus, what a take that was.

For someone with your history of being so laughably off on this kind of stuff, you sure do have a puffed up head.

But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here.

01 Dec 2021 21:26:09
You're trashing my offseason plan because the predictions haven't hit (not meant to be predictions btw, simply the path I would've pursued), yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO.

"Ketel Marte to the White Sox, in a trade that sends Upton to Arizona and Keuchel to the Angels (of course the White Sox get to steer clear of all dead money and take the best player in the deal. go figure) "

This was not in my offseason plan. This was a far-fetched idea that I brought up. 3-team deals with that many players hardly ever happen.

"But yes, I missed the contract on one player. Anything you need to do to distract yourself from how hilariously bad your predictions have been on here. "

It's not that you missed on one player - all of us will predict more wrong than we do right. However, it was you believing that I was crazy for proposing Gausman playing somewhere other than SF and for offering him 5 for $120 million (he signed for 5 for $110 million for the record; a lot closer than 4 for $84 million)

It may be time to switch over to your David Stearns account full time.

02 Dec 2021 00:15:13
I never once said you were "crazy. " My exact quote:

:Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on. "

I feel that's a pretty generous, healthy and contributive comment, don't you?

I also said, "It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse. "

Once again, I open the door to me being willing to be wrong.

Going along with a player's very word that he wants to return to the Giants seems like a pretty solid reason to predict he returns.

It's actually based in reality. Turns out, the interest from the Giants wasn't to Gausman's liking.

I never even remotely hinted that you were crazy. You're just looking for a win now LMAO. And I get it, with how hysterically bad your other ideas were, I'd be desperate too.

Maybe it's time you create a new account and forget the "Chi Sox" account ever existed.

02 Dec 2021 00:22:33
"yet the only thing you have "predicted" correctly in your Giants offseason plan is the Belt QO. "

So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint?

Also, for your ideas being, by your own account, "far fetched", you sure get a bit testy when people challenge it, don't you? Even you acknowledge the truth (which is rare, but we'll take what we can get), and yet, you can't handle when others disagree. Not that I'm surprised, but it'd be nice to see *SOME* improvement over the years.

Also, your super intelligent "Kimbrel for Segura" trade just got shot in the foot by Dave Dombrowski LMAO.

02 Dec 2021 03:27:21
Did he actually reference Kimbrel or are you talking about him saying they're "not necessarily looking for a closer at this point"?

I think the Phillies have a really solid team - one that could easily win a division in 2022 if they make a few improvements. They need a shortstop badly and their pen is quite obviously a glaring hole. They also lost Neris who'd pretty damn good in his own right. While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer.

Adding Kimbrel (even if it was for Segura) and let's say, Story, Rosario and a CF via trade makes them a lot more interesting.

"So what you're saying is that I'm 1/ 1, while you're batting about as well as Cesar Hernandez's White Sox stint? "

No, you missed on Gausman, Bundy, Verlander, and Neris too. They could still get Suzuki I guess, but I really think he'll be a Mariner. The Yarbrough trade is also theoretically still in play.

02 Dec 2021 13:53:50
"While I like Knebel as a reliever, I'd be very unhappy as a Phillie fan walking into next season with him as my closer. "

Yes, the Phillies should be unhappy with a closer who had a 2.45 ERA in 25 IP with the Dodgers in 2021. What they should really be looking for is to pay 160% more than Knebel for a guy who had a 5.09 ERA in 23 IP with the White Sox!

And they should give up their best middle infielder, which is also a glaring need, to acquire him!

I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero.

I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him.

Hahn would have been wiser to buy out his option and use the savings (15M) to just acquire a 2B via free agency. And if he really wanted to keep Kimbrel, I'm pretty sure he could have had him for a lot cheaper.

But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something--ANYTHING--for Craig Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt it.

02 Dec 2021 15:04:04
Player A: 5.59 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12.88 K/ 9, 3.72 BB/ 9, 1.86 HR/ 9. 0.3 WAR

Player B: 5.09 ERA. 4.56 FIP. 14.09 K/ 9, 3.91 BB/ 9, 1.96 HR/ 9

-- --

Player A is Heath Hembree.
Player B is Craig Kimbrel with the White Sox.

The Phillies could just sign Heath Hembree.

02 Dec 2021 15:34:14
"I will also continue to hammer the point that teams aren't dropping $16M on a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons, and they certainly aren't giving up anything of value for him. "

Lol, going from "absolutely not"

"But yeah, maybe there's a GM out there dumber than Rick Hahn right now who'll give up something"

to "well maybe"!

Also, let me know when we're going to stop grading relievers with ERA over 25 inning samples. Knebel, who has thrown 39 innings over the last 3 seasons, just got $10 million. But Kimbrel's lack of recent consistent track record kills his trade value? GTFOH. Kimbrel is a better pitcher and was never playing 2022 for much cheaper than $15 million.

Second base is not a glaring need for Philly, it's short. They have three guys that can play second for most of 2022.

"I will continue to hammer the point that Craig Kimbrel was completely and utterly terrible for the White Sox and that his value is essentially zero. "

His 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021. Please though, tell me more about the reliability of ERA, especially over tiny samples.

02 Dec 2021 22:13:42
"Hey man, I won't get lung cancer from these cigarettes, you're using a small sample size! " said the man dying of lung cancer.

What's hysterical is that I can't use the 23.0 IP of absolutely, pathetically bad pitching, because it's "too small of a sample size", but you can use the 36.2 IP, also a small sample size, to say Kimbrel is elite.

Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. Literally evidenced by BOTH relievers in this discussion:

The Phillies paid Corey Knebel based on his last 26 innings, and the White Sox acquired Kimbrel based on his previous 37 innings.

More examples:

The Brewers traded for Drew Pomeranz after seeing him in a relief role for 5.1 innings.

The Braves gave Drew Smyly 11M aftehr a season in which he pitched 26.1 innings.

That's just a few. There are PAGES worth of examples I could give.

If you don't think teams make decisions on small sample sizes, then you truly aren't paying attention.

Teams are absolutely going to be put off by Kimbrel's stint with the White Sox, especially when it fell completely in line with his 2019 and 2020 performances, and then considering the fact that he's owed 16M, they won't pay it.

But this shouldn't bother you too much. The White Sox clearly have a top 15 relief pitcher on their hands.

But hey, at least you have a 92nd percentile K-BB% to wash down the home runs Craig Kimbrel continues to serve up!

03 Dec 2021 15:20:47
"Teams use "small sample sizes" all the damn time in baseball. "

"a reliever who was good for exactly 4 months out of the past 3 seasons"

Bro, pick a side. Either small samples matter or they don't. If you're going to say that Kimbrel's last three months are detrimental to his outlook to the point where he is a useless baseball player, then that's just recency bias.

13 Dec 2021 13:43:58
The funny thing is: I haven't even brought up "small sample sizes" for Craig Kimbrel, or "recency bias". I brought up his LAST THREE EFFING SEASONS to you, and you're hellbent on focusing on what he did for 4 months with the Cubs. You know what we call that? Oh yeah, small sample size!

To quote you: "Bro, pick a side. "

Let's open up the past three seasons for Kimbrel, just once more for you:

2019: Absolutely terrible.
2020: Absolutely terrible.
2021 with Cubs (4 months) : Incredible.
2021 with White Sox (3 months) : Absolutely terrible.

Trust me, the last three months of 2021 fit the larger sampling WAYYYYY more than the first four.

The White Sox still paid a hefty price for Kimbrel's first half of 2021, because teams do this ALL THE TIME. They pay for small, recent samples.

You're trying to convince everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still an elite reliever ON SMALL SAMPLES all the while trying to downplay small samples.

So to recap:

If you believe that teams are looking at larger, recent samples: Craig Kimbrel is terrible.

If you believe that teams are looking at recent, small samples: Craig Kimbrel is absolutely terrible.

Craig Kimbrel used to be good in the same way Albert Pujols used to be really good. Now, they are exactly the same: washed up has-beens who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster.

The only difference is that the Dodgers simply signed Pujols to a league-minimum deal. The White Sox gave up Heuer and Madrigal for Kimbrel AND picked up his $16M option.

But here you are, thinking the White Sox are on par with the Dodgers! LOLOLOLOL.

13 Dec 2021 22:25:46
Again, his 26.5 K-BB% with the White Sox was in the 92nd percentile of pitchers who threw a minimum of 10 innings during the second half of 2021.

That K-BB% was better than every single Giants reliver in the 2nd half sans Littel. Apparently every single other Giants reliever that pitched at least 20 innings was "absolutely terrible" through the second half of 2021.

Kimbrel also pitched more innings with the Cubs in 2021 than he did in 2019 and 2020 combined. You conveniently left that detail out. Nothing new, however.

"But, but, but, HIS ERA! ", screamed the boomer stuck in 1995. His .295 BABIP was 32 points higher than his career average and his 19.5% HR/ FB was more than 8% higher than his career average.

Your logic is literally the epitome of recency bias. You equating Kimbrel's value to Albert Pujols shows that you really don't know what you're talking about. Quite the downfall for know-it-all Nate this offseason. Tremendously tough scene.

15 Dec 2021 13:32:07
And Kimbrel had a .203 BABIP in the first half, 58 points lower than his career average, but we're supposed to automatically assume that this kind of deviance is acceptable, but a 38 point deviance from his career BABIP, which falls in line with his most recent 3-year average is not?

Or how about his HR/ FB%?

Hey Siri, what was Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021? "Here's your answer: Craig Kimbrel's HR/ FB% from 2019 to 2021 was 19.1%. "

Hey, 19.2% seems strangely REALLLLLLYYYYY close to his average over the last three seasons, does it not?

But yeah, the 3.8% (a rate SIX TIMES lower than his 3-year average) is much, much more reliable! I mean, expecting us to take at wholesale value the really solid production that took place over 4 months, and not the really crappy performance that took place for 2.5 seasons isn't recency bias or anything?

No way! Clearly Craig Kimbrel is the pitcher we saw with the Cubs in 2021, not the Craig Kimbrel we saw with the Cubs in 2019, 2020, or with the White Sox in 2021. No way! What an aberration!

15 Dec 2021 21:07:54
Some other "elite pitchers" from the 90th percentile of K-BB%:

Hoby Milner, Scott Effross, Jason Adam.

And to think: the Cubs let Jason Adam walk, and the Brewers aren't even using Hoby Milner pitch in the majors.

Man, if only they knew that their K-BB ratios suddenly rendered their ERAs completely moot!

16 Dec 2021 20:26:53
"Guys, we know a much to high percent of everything Kimbrel pitches ends up in Gary, Indiana, but have you seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio? "

18 Dec 2021 15:50:56
We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important. What do you think is more sticky, K-BB% or ERA. (hint: It is 1000% the former) . If ERA is the first stat you reference to judge whether a pitcher has been successful or not, then I need to welcome you to the 21st century my man. It has quite literally zero predictive power in projecting the next season's ERA. This has been proven countless times.

Jason Adam had a .429 BABIP, Milner at .393, and Elfross was simply really good in his 14.2 innings despite be a no-namer. You pointing out these guys doesn't prove what you think it does, lol. These are solid pitchers.

You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. He literally threw more innings in 1 half of 2021 than in 2019 AND 2020 COMBINED! One can't be a small sample and the others a massive signal that he's washed. Referencing those 35 innings from 2019-2020 as "TWO WHOLE SEASONS" simply makes no sense. With that logic, his dominant 36 innings with the Cubs in 2021 would be just as good of a signal that he's an elite closer.

I know that you had a rude awakening to some advanced, yet relatively basic pitching stats (see: xFIP), so I tried to dumb it down even more to something as simple strikeouts vs. walks (i. e. the outcomes that any given pitcher has the most control of), and yet it appears that this kind of stuff is still pretty far over your head.

Good news for you though is that there's still a healthy subset of boomers who thing that ERA for pitcher evaluation still matters!

19 Dec 2021 12:34:15
"We are now to the point where you are arguing that the relationship of strikeouts to walks for a relief pitcher isn't important"

Good grief, no, we're not. We're to the point where you're PRETENDING that a pitcher with a *checks notes* 5.09 ERA is suddenly "elite" because of a K-BB%. You're grasping at straws and trying to pretend that teams only care about K-BB% and that we should just not address ANY of the other concerning statistics?

"You can't call Kimbrel's 2021 with the Cubs a small sample and then act like his 2019 + 2020 seasons provide more to the 3-year average. "

I literally used small samples, then you said I couldn't do that. So I went to a larger sampling, then you said I couldn't do that either. But now, you're okay with using *some* small samples, but not others.

So when will you just come right out and tell everyone that we're not allowed to address any statistics that are negative toward the Chicago White Sox?

That's essentially where we are in this discussion. You dodge any statistic that isn't favorable and try to pretend that it's unimportant, despite you having very clearly used ERA in the past to build up your own arguments. Did you also learn from your own ineptitudes or are you continuing to blow smoke?

If we're both being honest, we know it's the latter.

Here's the FACTS:

Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2019.
Craig Kimbrel was hilariously awful in 2020.

Then, he had a woefully unsustainable first half of 2021, with a 3.8 HR/ FB% and a .203 BABIP, both major deviations from his career numbers, but also his most recent 3-season sample.

Then, the White Sox paid a COMICAL return for Craig Kimbrel, one that was mocked by people everywhere, myself included. You continued to act like I was stupid and that Kimbrel would be this elite pitcher with the White Sox and continue his dominance.

So, he goes to the White Sox, and what does he do? He performs EXACTLY how he did in 2019 and 2020.

And yet, he's elite. He's not only elite by his Cubs small sampling. He's elite by his WHITE SOX SMALL SAMPLING.

Again, just acknowledge the truth: you don't like anyone telling you that your precious White Sox and your Savior, Rick Hahn, aren't as good as you thought.

But yes, every team should be emulating picking up aging relievers coming off horrible half-seasons and giving them $16M. I'm sure this will work out really well.

19 Dec 2021 12:35:22
Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022.

Feel free to return to this in October 2022.

20 Dec 2021 14:17:33
No, you're taking your own comments out of context. You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense.

Kimbrel's 2021 in total ended up being a 2.2 fWAR season, good for 6th among relievers. If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion. He put up a replacement level second half (where his usage was completely mis-managed by La Russa) after an all-star first half to finish with a top-10 RP season. I don't think it's crazy to say that a guy coming off a season in which he struck out 42.6% of batters faced and only walked 9.8% isn't completely washed. You can't exactly fluke your way into that over 60 IP.

Maybe the Giants should trade for Craig. He'd instantly be their best RP. In fact, the White Sox have literally 5 arms in their bullpen that would be the Giants best RP in an instant, LOL.

"Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022."

I will gladly eat crow if this happens.

20 Dec 2021 16:14:21
"You presented Kimbrel's 2019 (20.2 IP) as a "bad season", his 2020 (15.1 IP) as a "bad season", and then refer to his 2021 with the Cubs as a "woefully unsustainable first half", and I'll tell you for the third time that that makes absolutely zero sense. "

Shot.

"If the first and second half of his season weren't so contrasting and his struggles were mixed in to his first half success, this wouldn't be a discussion"

Chaser.

20 Dec 2021 16:38:36
And of course, if Craig Kimbrel wasn't hilariously bad with the White Sox in 2021, and kept even a little bit within his first half numbers, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

But that awful stint with the White Sox happened. And as I've been pointing out for a while now, it fell more in line with his 2019 and 2020 numbers than the first half did.

Statistically, it's far more likely that what Craig Kimbrel did in the second half is the more likely projection going forward and that his first half was a total aberration and is largely irrelevant as we project going forward.

I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. If lightning can strike in the same place twice, he's got a chance, and it's likely why his ZiPS projections are favorable (that and the 2021 Cubs numbers will skew the algorithm) .

But if this were any other pitcher on any other team, you'd be agreeing: Craig Kimbrel is most likely the pitcher he was in the second-half going forward.

And I think most teams will see that the same way.

And for the record, there's a small chance that Craig Kimbrel *could* be the Giants best reliever should they acquire him. But that's mostly because Farhan actually takes garbage players and makes them really good players.

Craig Kimbrel is, by definition, a garbage baseball player. So maybe he can do what Rick Hahn could not: make Craig Kimbrel decent.

Here's a trade:

Giants get: Kimbrel, Cespedes
White Sox get: Dilan Rosario.

The White Sox will have to attach a pretty intriguing prospect just to clear the salary. And like that, Dilan Rosario would be the best 2B option on the White Sox, and their best prospect.

20 Dec 2021 23:01:35
Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect.

"I'll agree that there's a chance that Kimbrel could do it again. "

Don't try and walk back your "Mark my words: Craig Kimbrel will an ERA above 5.00, and a negative WAR in 2022" claim now, Nate. Very sly of you to cover all of your bases tho. That Steamer projection making you a little nervous?

So, if I understand correctly, Kimbrel could bounce back to be a productive reliever (maybe even a high end one like Steamer projects), but only he happens to get traded to SF, which you are now realizing may not be such a crazy idea after all.

As a side note, we also know that MLB not only banned sticky stuff mid-season, but they also literally changed the baseballs. It's not *the* reason for Kimbrel's drop off, but it could have certainly played a role.

04 Apr 2022 15:09:34
"Very true, I forgot to factor in the Farhan Zaidi fairy dust effect. "

Darin Ruf. Check.
Mike Yastrzemski. Check.
LaMonte Wade Jr. Check.
Donovan Solano. Check.
Thairo Estrada. Check.
Tyler Rogers. Check.
Zack Littell. Check.
Kevin Gausman. Check.
Drew Smyly. Check.
Dominic Leone. Check.

If you don't think that Zaidi could have found a way to fix Craig Kimbrel's issues, then you're being ridiculous. There's a reason pitchers are nearly busting down doors trying to play in San Francisco.

28 Nov 2021 21:43:34
Ideal Yankees 2022 Roster (Highly Unrealistic because not all of them can happen but these should be their targets)

C Salvador Perez
1B Matt Olson
2B Gleyber Torres
3B D.J. LeMahieu
SS Corey Seager
LF Joey Gallo
CF Ketel Marte
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton

Bench

C Gary Sanchez
IF Gio Urshela
OF Kevin Pillar
SS Andrelton Simmons

Rotation

Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
Luis Castillo
Jameson Taillon
Jordan Montgomery

Bullpen

Domingo German
Nestor Cortes Jr.
Chad Green
Jonathan Loaisiga
Joely Rodriguez
Clay Holmes
Josh Hader
Aroldis Chapman

27 Nov 2021 15:05:57
Wow! Three great signing by the Mets. Cahna and Escobar were very good value signings. even with no other signings I like their lineup. who know they may still get Baez but

Now Mets need 2 starters.
Love to see Gausman and Stroman

1. CF - Marte
2. LF - Nimmo
3. SS - Lindor
4. 1b - Alonso
5. 3b - Escobar
6. 2b - McNeil
7. RF - Cahna
8. DH - Cano
9. C - McCann

6 man rotation?
deGrom*, Stroman, Gausman, Carrasco, Walker, Megill / Peterson

27 Nov 2021 19:18:55
Not saying it's impossible, but adding Stroman AND Gausman would put their payroll around $250 million without addressing their bullpen. I think they get one of those guys, a cheaper back-end guy, and then allocate some money to their bullpen. Cohen isn't going to be too discouraged by any tax threshold it appears tho.

28 Nov 2021 00:04:41
Robinson Cano for Craig Kimbrel would clear $8M for Cohen, and probably falls more in line with what the White Sox can get for Kimbrel.

28 Nov 2021 03:15:31
Apparently the Sox currently have a choice between Cano and Lindor.

25 Nov 2021 14:00:58
Free Agents predictions for fun:

Correa: Tigers
C.Seager: Yankees
Bryant: Mets
Semien: Mariners
Freeman: Braves
Ray: Blue Jays
Scherzer: Dodgers
Gausman: Angles
Stroman: Mets
Marte: Astros
Story: Rangers
Taylor: Giants
Baez: Angels
Castellanos: Marlins
Suzuki: Mariners
Kershaw: Rangers
Jansen: Blue Jays
R. Iglesias: Angels
Rizzo: Yankees
Conforto: White Sox
J. Gray: Yankees
Schwarber: Red Sox
Cruz: Brewers
Canha: Guardians
Neris: Royals
Kluber: Twins
Rodon: Rays
Pineda: Twins
Grienke: Braves
Knebel: Phillies
McHugh: Dodgers
D. Duffy: Brewers
Raley: Astros
K. Seager: Blue Jays
Soler: Phillies
E. Rosario: Braves
Kikuchi: Cubs
Avi Garcia: Guardians
E. Escobar: Nationals
Pham: Reds
L. Garcia: Blue Jays
J. Kelly: Phillies
Pederson: A's
Simmons: Reds
Tepera: Mets
Gomes: Guardians
Villar: Nationals
Cobb: Giants
C. Hernandez: Red Sox
M. Duffy: A's
J. Iglesias: Astros
McCutchen: Padres
Galvis: Rockies
C. Frazier: Cubs
Pillar: Tigers
O. Herrera: Rangers
Tyler Anderson: Reds
Calhoun: Rockies
Bundy: Yankees
Cueto: Tigers
Chafin: Red Sox
Harrison: Guardians
Odor: A's
Solano: Orioles
Gardner: Phillies
Dickerson: Nationals
Vogt: White Sox
Tsutsugo: Pirates
Fowler: Mets
Eaton: Pirates
Moreland: A's
Carpenter: Rockies
Davies: Orioles
Smyly: Rockies
Wacha: A's
Kim: Reds
Hamels: Angels
Paxton: Orioles
JA Happ: Nationals
Lester: Mets
C. Martinez: Pirates
M. Franco: Dbacks
M. Gonzalez: Cubs
B. Anderson: Rangers
T. Shaw: Orioles

and some trade destinations:

Olsen: Dodgers
Chapman: Rays
Segura: White Sox
Kiermaier: Phillies
DeJong: Twins
Ahmed: Phillies
Margot: Braves
Wendle: Cubs
Gregorius: Dbacks

Manaea: White Sox
Bassitt: Giants
Kimbrel: Phillies
Sonny Gray: Mariners

27 Nov 2021 16:03:33
I can’t fully express how laughably bad a Craig Kimbrel for Jean Segura trade is for Philadelphia.

27 Nov 2021 19:06:16
Rumor is it would be Kimbrel for Segura AND Alvarado, lol. Kimbrel is a top-10, top-15 RP and the Phillies have Stott knocking at the door. Given also how bad they need bullpen help, it makes sense for them. I know you absolutely hate Kimbrel tho.

28 Nov 2021 00:03:22
LOL. "#White Sox have interest in Jean Segura and Jose Alvarado from the #Phillies in a potential Craig Kimbrel trade. " From "MLB Nerds" twitter.

This is right up there with that Bennett Karoll "rumor" you believed. It's so outlandish that I'd expect even you to reject it.

IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects.

And if Rick Hahn really thinks he could pull this off (I don't believe he actually does, you just believed a made up rumor from a Twitter account with 3K followers), then he might be clinically insane.

I'm not the president of the Rick Hahn fan club, but even ole' Rick "Give Adam Eaton $8M" Hahn isn't this dumb.

28 Nov 2021 00:32:45
Also, in what world is Craig Kimbrel a "top 10 RP"? Did you take a time machine to 2016?

We're talking about a guy who, from 2019-2021 had a 3.67 ERA, and that's low because of 4 months of 2021.

Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021, his ERA from 2019-2021 is 5.64, with a FIP nearing 7.00, a 2.44 HR/ 9, and 5.19 BB/ 9.

Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. Not Rick Hahn. He picked up a 16M option on him!

28 Nov 2021 03:00:04
Kimbrel had the 6th best fWAR, 4th best K-BB%, 9th best xwOBA. He's pretty firmly in the top-10 to 15 RP conversation. lol. cry.

"Remove the name and the acquisition cost from the equation every contending team in baseball would DFA/ option that reliever. "

Guys with almost 33 K-BB% don't get DFA'd my man. It just simply isn't true. Try again.

"Sans the 4-month span of him playing with the Cubs in 2021."

"Sans a 412 PA stretch from Darin Ruf, he really sucks. "

"IF the Phillies trade for Craig Kimbrel, I could see Didi Gregorius heading out, but even then, the White Sox would need to add money or prospects. "

If you actually, genuinely believe this statement and aren't trolling, you really just don't know the game. This is idiotic. C'mon dude.

Hahn is going to get really nice value for Kimbrel (if he is in fact traded), and you're going to be absolutely furious, which I find hilarious.

Also, nothing on here is as outlandish as you creating an additional account so someone would agree with you. That's just plain sad, David Stearns. And this isn't the first time, astonishingly.

It's still very telling that you think Hahn missing on Adam Eaton on a one-year flyer is a big "gotcha moment". If that's what your evidence is for him being a lousy GM in recent years, then you may want to re-evaluate your stance.

29 Nov 2021 14:43:45
Literally no one is crying, except maybe me crying laughing at you thinking that Craig Kimbrel, who, over the last 3 seasons, has been good for a span of 4 months, is somehow a Top 15 reliever in baseball.

And that you think that the best you can get for a Top 15 reliever is an overpaid middle infielder.

You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. He's an awful reliever and it was a comical mistake for Rick Hahn to pick up that option, and now, White Sox fans want out of it.

Hint: If you had a competent GM, it would have cost $1M to get rid of him. Heck, they could have easily signed a "Top 15 RP" for around 5-7M AAV, if even that.

But please, post another "rumor" from a Twitter account with 3K who pretends to have sources. I'm sure it's super substantive!

29 Nov 2021 16:34:08
"You and I both know that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage. And the mental gymnastics you're doing to convince yourself otherwise is precious. "

Apparently referencing commonly used pitching stats and everyday comprehensive metrics like fWAR is now considered mental gymnastics. Your rationale is literally "trust me, bro - Kimbrel stinks'.

Your plummet on this site is unreal. You've resorted to fighting against numbers. It's a really tough scene.

Mind you, Nate, you are the same person who fought tooth and nail to argue that Darin Ruf was a better baseball player than Jose Abreu after a good 400 PA stretch.

30 Nov 2021 15:51:42
These projections are really going well for you LMAOOOO.

30 Nov 2021 18:37:22
Projections like these are tremendously difficult. Get one wrong, and a domino effect can start, especially with the top guys. That said, you correctly predicted only three a year ago. I predicted destinations for almost 100 players and you're laughing at them 5 days later, lol.

I've gotten Tsutsugo and Cobb correct and Knebel may be close.

30 Nov 2021 19:17:54
It probably helps that the Alex Cobb signing was rumored last week, well before this post, don't you think?

And no, it's not "that hard", I'm sitting comfortably in the top 20 over at the MLBTR contest.

In fairness, though, this is probably quite difficult for you. You seem to have a knack for not getting predictions right around here.

01 Dec 2021 14:38:49
Frazier to the Cubs, just like that.

You're top 20 on the MLBTR and you apparently posted my take in a renowned actuarial subreddit that proves me wrong.

Try sharing some links so we don't have to take your worthless word for the things you say.

"it's not "that hard""

You were 3 for 20 last year bub. LOL.

01 Dec 2021 19:23:11
"Nate Skomski" on the MLBTR leaderboard my dude. Dropped down after the Javier Baez deal, but overall, 7/ 25.

Go check r/ actuary, on a post back around November 4th. I've tried to submit the link multiple times and it never gets posted, but it was on there as of the time of posting this comment.

And while we're waiting for links, I need to see a reliable source on that Segura-for-Kimbrel "rumor". Not a tweet from MLB Nerds, not from Bennett Karoll, but from someone who actually has a history of journalism and making these calls.

Please, when you have one, send it my way.

01 Dec 2021 20:54:26
Knebel to Philly. Check.

01 Dec 2021 21:09:02
Nobody "credible" has mentioned Kimbrel for Segura (at least I don't think), but that doesn't mean I can't propose it. Me calling it a rumor based on anonymous account was my response to you over-hyperbolizing the proposal.

You claim Kimbrel is trash despite stats that say the exact opposite.

I checked r/ actuary - nothing there even remotely related to baseball. Maybe it magically got deleted. What did you title the post?

02 Dec 2021 14:17:20
"Correlation and Causation in Baseball Argument". That was the title of the post. So, if it's not there for you, I can't help you any further.

As far as Craig Kimbrel goes: the dude was good for exactly a 4-month stretch. 2019: hot garbage. 2020: hot garbage. Second half of 2021: hot garbage.

In other words, over the last 3 seasons, Kimbrel was good for about 38% of his innings, and absolutely terrible for the other 62%.

From 2019-2021, he was worth 1.2 WAR. His WAR in the first half of 2021 with the Cubs represented 183% of that total!

183% of his production was based on 38% of all his innings. The other 62%? He was worth -1.0 WAR.

You're trying to tell everyone that Craig Kimbrel is still great because he had a solid 4-month span of baseball, and you're hoping we don't look at what he did with the White Sox, or with the Cubs in 2019 and 2020. Kimbrel reverted to that same pitcher, almost overnight.

And for as good as Craig Kimbrel is, you and the other White Sox fans on Twitter and other places seem hellbent on getting rid of him! Just months ago, you were touting the importance of having a dominant bullpen, and now, you're suggesting they sacrifice that dominance for a role they can fill for dirt cheap in the likes of Donovan Solano or Josh Harrison (who probably have as much value as Segura, just on potential contract alone) .

You don't trade an elite, top-15 relief pitcher for a 32-year-old 2B making 14M a year.

For as cocky as you act on here, the fact you don't know this is quite embarrassing. I'm actually embarrassed for you.

02 Dec 2021 14:55:47
Here's a question for you:

If you're looking at investing in stock, and you see that the company made $1 billion last year, would you invest?

Before you answer, some further information. The company made $1 billion dollars from January to June, and exactly zero dollars from July to December. Still interested?

More information: the company was actually LOSING money, in fact, close to $500M from the two years prior. Now how interested are you?

I'd reckon you wouldn't be very interested, and for good reason.

This is Craig Kimbrel. He was really, really, really good for a brief period, but overall, he's been really bad. And trying to sell him like he made a billion dollars, thus he's worth a billion now is a really bad take, even for your standards, James.

02 Dec 2021 20:25:13
Nothing like a good ole' Natedog analogy to really drive home a bad take.

It is absolutely astonishing how you are saying that Kimbrel has only been good over a four month stretch and therefore is horrible but wholeheartedly believe that Darin Ruff is better than Jose Abreu. You will really believe anything as long as it benefits your argument and makes the Chicago White Sox look bad.

Kimbrel had a very good 2021 season.

16 Dec 2021 13:50:08
Darin Ruf wasn't just good for a "4-month period" (with that 4-month period being sandwiched in between really, really, really bad performance) . He was really bad for several years, went to Korea, figured out his swing, came back to the states and has been really good.

My point has never been that Darin Ruf has had a better career. I know you take any slight at a White Sox player very personally, but a little bit of reality is needed for you.

My argument was that IN THE YEAR TWENTY-TWENTY ONE A. D., Darin Ruf had an objectively better season. For one season. Not for his entire career. Not even for multiple seasons. For one season.

Feel free to disagree with that point. But your scarecrow argument to suggest I'm saying Darin Ruf is better, period, is hilarious.

But it's what we've come to expect from you.

You literally cannot handle that someone has, accurately, pointed out that Craig Kimbrel is hot garbage, and that Rick Hahn stupidly a) traded really good and, now, very necessary talent for Kimbrel and then b) picked up an option that is likely 2-4x what he'd make on the open market on a 1-year-deal.

That was a beyond stupid move from Hahn, regardless of what you think about Kimbrel's talent and future outlook. He's not worth 16M, and even you agree, as evidenced by the many trades you've tried to toss him into.

If he was truly an elite pitcher, you'd have no issue, whatsoever, with him getting 16M, or at the very least, you'd shoot for a little bit higher tier 2B in a trade.

16 Dec 2021 13:51:08
Correction: Craig Kimbrel had a very good 2021 season with the Chicago Cubs.

That was it. He went bankrupt in the second half.

While we're at it, can I interest you in buying stock in WeWork? They were really good for a season!

20 Dec 2021 14:19:16
We'll kick it over to DavidStearnsGM for comment: David?

18 Nov 2021 19:17:37
Uh Oh!

Wander Franco might be close to a pre-arb extension with Tampa Bay. Will Erik Neander have to address the associated racism that comes with giving an early-20s minority superstar $100 million?

This also reflects poorly on those that will continue to support the Rays - low moral character.

We thank Natedog for bringing this travesty to light.

18 Nov 2021 21:12:57
Dude, give it a rest.

18 Nov 2021 21:27:10
Learning from Rick Hahn, who revolutionized this racist act. Man, he truly has infested the league.

Next thing you know, these teams are going to hire drunk-drivers as managers!

19 Nov 2021 14:36:40
There it is, the admission that Hahn's success has had an effect on the league. We're done here.

21 Nov 2021 12:18:24
Yes, Hahn's racism has so far infected the Major Leagues.

Indeed, I agree. We're done here.

23 Nov 2021 17:02:29
Reportedly $223 million for Wander, wow. The racist Rays should have kept him at the league minimum for his own good and not forced him to sign this massive deal.

23 Nov 2021 18:14:02
You understand there’s a colossal difference between $50M and $223M, right?

24 Nov 2021 16:20:26
Approx. $173 million. What's your point?

17 Nov 2021 18:59:00
Brewers Offseason

1. Sign Collin McHugh (RHP) for 2 years, $15M.

2. Trade:

Milwaukee gets: Clint Frazier (OF) NY Yankees get: Cade Lemons (RHP)

3. Sign Kurt Suzuki (C) for 1 year, $2M

4. Trade:
Boston gets Josh Hader (LHP)
Milwaukee gets: Bobby Dalbec (1B); Gilberto Jimenez (OF); Connor Seabold (RHP)

5. Sign Shawn Armstrong (RHP) for 1 year, 1.5M.

6. Non-tender Daniel Vogelbach & Jandel Gustave

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Wong
SS- Adames
LF- Yelich
DH- Tellez
3B- Urias
1B- Dalbec
C- Narvaez
RF- Frazier
CF- Taylor

Bench
C- Suzuki
2B- Brosseau
2B- Peterson
CF- Bradley
RF- Cain

Rotation
1. Burnes (R)
2. Woodruff (R)
3. Peralta (R)
4. Houser (R)
5. Lauer (L)

Bullpen
CP- Williams (R)
SU- Suter (L)
SU- McHugh (R)
RP- Cousins (R)
RP- Gott (R)
RP- Perdomo (L)
RP- Ashby (L)
RP- Armstrong (R)

18 Nov 2021 16:38:09
I think they could do better for Hader, but I'm not very high on Dalbec.

19 Nov 2021 20:46:57
They also have $36 million worth of OFers on their bench, lol. But sure, trading the worse one for SP depth is insane.

21 Nov 2021 12:20:28
What's your issue Chi Sox? I haven't been condescending with you, no need to do so with me.

I stated that I don't see the Brewers taking on Dallas Keuchel, even if they are able to dump Bradley. I'm sorry not everyone here agrees with your self-proclaimed massive intelligence.

22 Nov 2021 02:06:12
Natedog, you're now arguing with me from a different account. You've done this before and I find it hilarious that you need to create additional accounts to make it look like people agree with the things you say. LMAO. It's laughably childish, but have fun I guess, kiddo.

You don't need to tell me that Natedog and DavidStearnsGM posting here at the same time of day or that both accounts write in the same tone is some kind of coincidence. You have some internal issues to address, it appears.

Anyway, I don't think it makes sense to claim that the Brewers wouldn't take Kuechel, but they'll put 2 $18 million outfielders on their bench? If Cain isn't even starting, getting Keuchel for Bradley is a no brainer for MIL. JBJ would hardly ever get into games in your scenario. Keuchel still has the upside to be a productive back-end starter.

15 Nov 2021 14:21:20
Giants Offseason

(Update since Posey retired)

Non-tender Alex Dickerson & Tyler Beede.

Re-sign 1B Brandon Belt (accepts QO)- 1/18.4M
Re-sign RHP Kevin Gausman 4/84M


Sign RHP Dylan Bundy 1/6.5M
Sign RHP Justin Verlander 2/32M
Sign OF Seiya Suzuki 5/75M
Sign RHP Hector Neris 2/15M


Trade LHP Nick Swiney & 1B Garrett Frechette to Tampa Bay for LHP Ryan Yarbrough

C- Casali
1B- Belt
2B- Flores/La Stella
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
LF- Wade/Suzki
CF- Slater/Duggar
RF- Yastrzemski

Bench
C- Bart
1B/OF- Ruf
2B/3B- Flores/La Stella
OF- Wade/Suzuki
OF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation
1. Webb (R)
2. Gausman (R)
3. Verlander (R)
4. Bundy (R)
5. Yarbrough (L)

Bullpen
CP- Doval (R)
CP- McGee (L)
SU- Rogers (R)
RP- Neris (R)
RP- Leone (R)
RP- J. Garcia (L)
RP- Littell (R)
RP- Alvarez (L)

Estimated 2022 Payroll- $168 Million

15 Nov 2021 17:50:36
Still think Gausman at 4/ 84 represents a substantial hometown discount. He's the best pitcher on the market over 4+ seasons, by a decent margin.

15 Nov 2021 21:15:44
Possibly. And I'd agree it's a hometown discount. He's made it very clear he wants to play in San Francisco, on several occasions.

16 Nov 2021 04:36:36
I think LAA comes after Gausman hard. Arte probably signs off on 5/ 110-120 easy. Trip to OC might not be too bad for $30 million extra.

16 Nov 2021 13:38:45
It's entirely possible Gausman moves on, especially if he gets an offer that he simply can't refuse.

But every indication, again, is that there's mutual interest in bringing him back. I just don't know if Zaidi is ready to drop 100M+ on Gausman. I'd rather him give it to Stroman.

16 Nov 2021 14:14:56
Agree to disagree there I guess. No chance in heck I'd take Stroman over Gausman.

Reports are that LAA is going over the QO to sign Synderaard. Major desperation mode - I think one of Gausman, Stroman or Ray is going there as well.

16 Nov 2021 14:51:39
I think my greater fear is that the Giants would be paying to get second half Kevin Gausman, which is why I don't want them going more than 4 years on him.

17 Nov 2021 13:32:33
This offseason should be interesting. To date, the biggest free agent contract they've handed out under Zaidi was to Tommy La Stella. It's clear they'll blow straight through that this winter, but I remain unconvinced that they are going to start giving out 100M contracts just yet.

18 Nov 2021 14:36:42
The Steamer projections for Stroman versus Gausman show why we shouldn't trust Steamer.

Gausman 2022: 191 IP, 10.02 K/ 9, 2.54 BB/ 9, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP.
Stroman 2022: 182 IP, 7.39 K/ 9, 2.64 BB/ 9, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP.

The problem I see is that Stroman's numbers, most importantly his ERA and FIP are elevated by 50 to 100 points, respectively from his 2021 numbers, and the last time Stroman was that bad over a full season was 2016. He was hurt in 2018. They don't reflect his career numbers very well.

Gausman's projections are elevated from 2021 as well, but they fall more in line with his career numbers.

Stroman's projections are obviously hurt by a gap in the algorithm, not having any numbers to input in 2020 due to his opt out, but it's odd to me that a guy who had 3.22 and 3.02 ERA seasons over his last two (and wasn't dealing with injuries) would somehow be projected as a 4.12 ERA guy the next season.

I think both are excellent pitchers. But I'd lean toward Stroman, mostly because he has a lengthier track record of success.

18 Nov 2021 17:20:03
Stroman's GB% is dropping and his 2021 BABIP was a career-low. For a pitcher that's so quality of contact-driven, that's a cause for concern. If he goes to a less defensively-efficient team (i. e. one that doesn't have Lindor and Baez up the middle), we could see the effect. I think he's a high-3s, low-4s ERA guy into his early 30s.

Remember that Steamer is merely a formula. It's not making any subjective determinations.

22 Nov 2021 13:34:41
Except when Darin Ruf is a -0.7 WAR player next year. Then you're more than willing to accept it as a determination.

22 Nov 2021 14:30:59
It would be better for your argument on Ruf if Steamer WAS making subjective determinations. Math tells us that you're severely overrating his future outlook.

29 Nov 2021 03:17:27
Yeah, 4/ 84 for Gausman was unsurprisingly never close, lol.

01 Dec 2021 20:03:36
Did Gausman go to the White Sox for 5/ 120?

Asking for a friend.

02 Dec 2021 03:21:10
Nope, but 5/ 120 was a lot closer than 4/ 84.

02 Dec 2021 14:38:32
4/ 84 is 21M AAV.

5/ 120 is 24M AAV.

He signed for 22M AAV.

Therefore, I was closer. Next argument.

11 Nov 2021 21:06:37
White Sox Offseason 2021-2022

1.Sign Kevin Gausman (5 years, $120 million)

2. Sign Stephen Vogt (1 years, $1.5 million)

3. Sign Blake Parker (1 year, $1.5 million)

4. Trade #1:

White Sox Get:
OF Kevin Kiermaier
INF Joey Wendle
RHP Phoenix Sanders

Rays Get:
RHP Craig Kimbrel
2B/3B Bryan Ramos
OF Misael Gonzalez

5. Trade #2:

White Sox Get:
2B/OF Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Get:
1B/OF Andrew Vaughn
RHP Jared Kelley
OF Micker Adolfo
RHP Theo Denlinger

6. Trade #3:

White Sox Get:
OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
$4 million cash

Brewers Get:
LHP Dallas Keuchel

7. Trade #4

White Sox Get:
RHP Tyler Kinley

Rockies Get:
DH Yermin Mercedes
LHP Gil Luna

Lineup:
Tim Anderson SS
Yoan Moncada 3B
Luis Robert RF
Ketel Marte 2B
Jose Abreu 1B
Yasmani Grandal C
Eloy Jimenez DH
Kevin Kiermaier CF
Jackie Bradley Jr. / Adam Engel (platoon) LF

Bench:
Joey Wendle INF
Adam Engel / Jackie Bradley OF
Stephen Vogt C
Romy Gonzalez UTL

Rotation:
Lucas Giolito
Lance Lynn
Kevin Gausman
Dylan Cease
Michael Kopech

Bullpen:
Liam Hendriks
Aaron Bummer
Garrett Crochet
Blake Parker
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose Ruiz
Tyler Kinley
Phoenix Sanders / Ryan Burr

Payroll = ~$179 million

Thoughts?

14 Nov 2021 19:21:55
Gausman has stated that he grew up a Giants fan and wants to play for them, I think it's best to project he'll play there until the Giants move on.

But also, 5/ 120 seems like an overpay for him.

14 Nov 2021 19:24:42
Also, that's Milwaukee paying $6.5M for Kimbrel, after the salaries clear. If the Brewers are honestly considering if they are willing to pay Josh Hader $10M, then there's very little chance they'll take on $6.5M for Kimbrel.

15 Nov 2021 13:01:17
Kimbrel goes to Tampa, not Milwaukee. Milwaukee makes Hader available every off season just in case someone wants to offer a massive overpay.

Also I really don't think $24 million over 5 years will end up being an overpay for Gausman. He should get the biggest deal for any FA SP on a 5 or 6 year deal.

15 Nov 2021 13:13:20
You're right, I misread the trade. I think it's even less likely the Brewers would want Keuchel. Bradley was a bad signing, but there's a better chance he'll be worth his salary than Keuchel would.

And I watched enough of Gausman to say that if the guy is going to get $20-25M, I want it on a 4-year deal. He has a higher chance of being a bust than most of the top-flight SP options on the market, in my opinion.

This isn't to say he's not good, just that I would proceed with caution. His 2nd Half was pretty rough, once teams figured out that splitter.

15 Nov 2021 13:47:12
You really think it's more likely that Bradley is worth $17.5 million than Keuchel is worth $18 million (or even $22 million with the added cash)? . I don't. I think there are more signs pointing to a Kuechel bounce back than Bradley, even if I'm not too confident in ether.

Milwaukee could use some SP depth too, more than they need to see if Bradley can bounce back.

15 Nov 2021 16:28:43
Milwaukee has a really solid rotation as it stands. They could use depth, but I'm not sure dropping 18M on pitching depth is ideal for them.

15 Nov 2021 17:40:15
Logic here is that Milwaukee would essentially pay Keuchel $22 million for 2022 who's projected 1.2 WAR by Steamer ($18.3 million per win)

They get rid of paying JBJ $17.5 million for 2022 who's projected 0.1 WAR by Steamer. ($175 million per win) .

They're buying a win above replacement for roughly $4.5 million, which is a little less than market value.

15 Nov 2021 21:19:07
I guess my point is: who is more likely to overcome a really bad season: JBJ or Keuchel? JBJ has elements to his game that are more likely, in my opinion, to overcome his projection. I don't think Keuchel reaches 1 WAR next season.

If the Brewers are that hamstrung by JBJ's salary, they could find more creative ways of clearing that salary. But they could find significantly better value for equal production than Keuchel.

15 Nov 2021 22:46:22
IDK where you're getting that JBJ is making 17.5M in 2022. Spotrac, B-R, Cots all have him at around 9.5-11M (B-R and Cots are 11M) . That's a sizable difference.

16 Nov 2021 04:31:55
I'd say the $8 million buyout for 2023 is fairly inevitable, no? It becomes a $4 million decision as otherwise he'd make $12 million, so I guess if he gets back to 2020 JBJ it's a possibility, but nothing in his profile suggests that.

So "paying him $17.5 million for 2022" isn't technically true, but that will probably be what he makes for just playing the 2022 season.

16 Nov 2021 13:42:59
You were including the buyout into that number. That's where the gap was. Thanks for clarifying that.

I have no reason to believe that JBJ will be better than his projection other than pure prediction on my behalf.

But I think if I'm given the choice between paying Jackie Bradley, Jr. $17.5M to play centerfield or Dallas Keuchel to be a #5 starter for me, I'd rather stick with JBJ. You can find a #5 starter for very cheap.

Not to mention, the Brewers already have a full rotation and could easily turn to Aaron Ashby, or even Brent Suter if they found themselves in a bind. No need to give Dallas Keuchel a boatload of money for a position of strength.

17 Nov 2021 16:59:43
Chi Sox,

Bradley's 8M buyout would go toward the 2023 payroll, not 2022. And the Brewers are unlikely to add a lot of payroll next year (their projection is already $140M) . Adding Keuchel makes the Crew add 18M for 2022, instead of being able to spread that total out over two seasons. They can address the 8M buyout and how to afford that in 2023.

17 Nov 2021 17:10:20
One last thing, you say that the White Sox are projected to pay Keuchel 18.3M per win, while the Brewers are paying JBJ $175M per win.

So why, exactly, are you suggesting the White Sox make this trade? I'm guessing, based on your history, that it's not because you think the White Sox just want to extend a hand of benevolence to the Brewers.

You're literally suggesting that the White Sox platoon a "$17.5M player" with a projected 0.1 WAR. Somehow, I'm not believing that you buy the projection on JBJ.

17 Nov 2021 17:12:00
Then again, the White Sox gave Adam Eaton $8M last season. So I'm not exactly accusing them of being able to make good decisions.

18 Nov 2021 14:41:42
Yes. The whole "my guy is clearly more valuable, but give me your guy instead" argument lacks conviction.

The question at hand is which would the Brewers rather have:

A replacement-level player on a 2-year, 17.5M deal (which is essentially what JBJ is) or the same on a 1-year, 18M deal?

A team with unlimited budget would take Keuchel. A small-market team would take JBJ.

18 Nov 2021 17:11:41
I think it would be better for both parties if Keuchel is with a different club in 2022. He's was not happy about not making the PS roster and his comments in 2020 about having to "teach the rest of the team how to win", given the circumstances surrounding when he got his ring, came off poorly to most of his teammates. Therefore I think from the Sox's standpoint it's worth it to take on a worse player and save only $4.5 million in the process to offload Keuchel.

Keuchel was also awful in 2021 and still was worth half a win. I think he'll be worth at least a win in 2022. The Sox have better replacement options for Keuchel and the Brewers have better replacement options for Bradley.

The logic that Bradley is on a 2-year, $17.5 million deal is incorrect. If Bradley plays 2022 and 2023 with the Brewers, he'll make $21.5 million, not $17.5 million. Bradley makes $17.5 million ONLY if he ONLY plays 2022 with the Brewers.

The Brewers would be paying $4.5 million for Keuchel, not $18 million, below market value. We have to be able to understand that Bradley is likely a replacement level player at best and the idea of a sunk cost. Whether you factor in Bradley's buyout to this year's books or next year's isn't that big of deal in my opinion. The money owed is the money owed. While they get Cain off the books in '23, they will also have more significant arb raises due to their best players (Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. )

18 Nov 2021 18:59:05
I said "essentially". Jackie Bradley, Jr. will make 9.5M in 2022, and his 8M buyout (which is a 99% sure thing at this rate) would factor into the 2023 payroll. That's 17.5M paid out over two years. Or one year of playing, and one year of dead money. However you prefer to look at it, the Brewers aren't paying out 17.5M in one season. They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal.

Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ.

So your justification makes sense for the White Sox, but not for Milwaukee, as they obviously don't like paying Bradley the money he's getting, why would they pay Keuchel his? At the very least, they can play Bradley at a position where depth is needed. The Brewers don't need a starting pitcher, especially not one as bad as Dallas Keuchel.

I think it's better that the Brewers try to see if there's any juice left in the Jackie Bradley Jr. lemon before they move on to another expensive, aging player.

David Stearns passes. Trust me, I'm David Stearns.

19 Nov 2021 14:49:09
"They can space that out over two seasons, which is ideal. "

For a team not battling the luxury tax threshold, does his really matter? I would guess not. Getting out of that money sooner may be preferable given the heftier arb raises due in 2023.

"Dallas Keuchel is as much a sunk cost for the White Sox as Jackie Bradley, Jr. is for the Brewers. And it's quite apparent you feel that way, as you're willing to trade Keuchel for JBJ. "

I outlined why I feel that while Keuchel is most likely at least 1 WAR better than JBJ in 2021, the trade still makes sense from the White Sox's standpoint. They could better use the LH premium OF defender anyway. Just read above. Keuchel is the better player - saying he's as much of a sunk cost as Bradley just really isn't true.

Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this. Keuchel's upside as a 5th starter is much greater than JBJ's, and it only costs $4.5 million. They have Tyrone Taylor who's a much better player at this point and needs PAs.

21 Nov 2021 12:30:41
"Stearns and the Brewers would probably be all over this"

Man, you really say something and then think it's uber intelligent, don't you? I say that because reading through these comments, it's common for both you and Natedog.

Look, would the Brewers love to get rid of the money they owe Jackie Bradley Jr.? Of course they would. But you're suggesting that Keuchel is going to be this guy that's totally worth taking on an extra 4.5M. I don't agree.

The best rate I've seen projected is that teams are spending around 6.5M per WAR in baseball right now. Keuchel needs to have a 2.8 win season to get net-zero. Per you, he's projected at 1.1 WAR in 2022. He's overpaid by 250%.

So while he may have a better outlook for 2022, according to you, he's not a guy the Brewers need. Just going by Steamer, Keuchel isn't even projected to be a top 7 starting pitcher for the Brewers in 2022.

I'd rather see if JBJ can do something. Keuchel has no spot on the Brewers.

Sorry that I refuse to praise your excellent baseball knowledge. I await your further hostile and condescending responses.

22 Nov 2021 02:13:33
Keuchel getting to 2.8 WAR in 2022 is much more likely than JBJ getting to 2.8 WAR. I don't think this is even a hot take. Keuchel's floor is probably 1 WAR, barring injury. JBJ could have to seriously fight to be replacement level.

Keuchel can easily slide into Brett Anderson's role/ innings. There's a spot there. Yet you have JBJ as Milwaukee's 5th outfielder and are telling me that Keuchel has no spot.

05 Nov 2021 12:28:04
NY Mets 2022 - 2023

Mets are stuck with Cano for 1 more year and deGrom is a huge ????
My strategy is a 2 year process with major focus of shoring up pitching with this offseason and give Baty, Vientos and Mauricio another year of devopelment

Mets move this offseason
1. Extend QO to Thor, Stroman and Conforto (I suspect that only Thor may accept then look to sign long term after a healthy year)

2. Sign 2 of these starters -
Gausman, Rondon, Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Stroman

3. Resign Loup

4. Sign Chris Taylor

2022
1. CF - Nimmo
2. SS - Lindor
3. 1B - Alonso
4. LF - D. Smith
5. 3b - Chris Taylor
6. RF - McNeil
7. C - McCann
8. 2b - Cano

Starters
Degrom? (if healthy need 6man rotation)
Rondon*
Ray* (2 from list above)
Thor
Walker
Carrasco

Pen
Diaz, May, Lugo, Loup, Castro, David Peterson, Trevor Williams, Drew Smith

2023 lineup
1. CF - Nimmo
2. SS - Lindor
3. RF - Chris Taylor
4. 1B - Alonso
5. 3b - Baty
6. LF - Vientos / McNeil
7. 2b - Mauricio / McNeil
8. C - McCann

05 Nov 2021 13:09:14
Offering Syndergaard a QO would be very surprising.

05 Nov 2021 13:52:10
Will the Mets even have a guy leading the front office to make these moves?

05 Nov 2021 14:54:04
What happens if Stroman, Syndergaard and Conforto all accept the QO?

05 Nov 2021 16:00:02
Stroman can't be offered a QO, on conditions of him being offered one already. (Giants are in the same boat with Gausman)

05 Nov 2021 19:02:54
facts on the front office. lol

good call on stroman. QO doesn't apply.

if both thor and conforto accept its not a bad things.

07 Nov 2021 12:06:21
I'm kinda blown away by Syndergaard getting a QO. He should accept (and I suspect he will) .

07 Nov 2021 07:04:23
When will Mets, realize if they ever want truly win . Rather try buy all best players, the reason the braves been so good for so long was they drafted and develop there own players and then when they where all ready supplement there roster with right pieces to when the World Series . This goes the same to the Yankees and red Sox and all other teams, teams that win develops there own player then when they are truly ready have a Core player on there team they had one or two pieces, if look The braves back when they won all those division titles and fact the been so good now and won the series was they had Bulk of the roster they develop their own players and then supplement the pieces that they need to win. . Instead going for the quick fix do it right way and Mets and other teams might have better chance in the future, I know this not a Popular. View but it’s how it works, stop trying buy a championship it doesn’t work .

04 Nov 2021 05:05:01
Rays offseason.

1. Pick up Mike Zunino's $7 million option

2. Non-Tender Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough & Cody Reed

3. DFA Mike Brosseau

4. Trade Xavier Edwards 2B/SS, Derek Shenton 3B and Dietrich Enns LHP to Oakland for Matt Chapman 3B.

5. Trade Kevin Kiermaier OF, Joey Wendle INF and Chris Mazza RHP to Chicago White Sox for Craig Kimbrel RHP, Bryan Ramos 2B/3B and Misael Gonzalez OF.

6. Trade Tyler Glasnow RHP and Manuel Margot OF to Los Angeles Dodgers for Bobby Miller RHP, Kody Hoese 3B, Jose Ramos OF and Edwin Rios 1B.

7. Trade Matt Wisler RHP to Philadelphia for Christian Hernandez RHP and Jamari Baylor SS/OF

8. Sign Steven Matz to a 1 year, $8 million contract

9. Sign Jose Quintana to a minor league deal with a major league ST invite ($2 million of on ML roster)

Lineup:
Yandy Diaz 1B
Brandon Lowe 2B (L)
Wander Franco SS (S)
Randy Arozarena RF
Austin Meadows DH (L)
Mike Zunino C
Josh Lowe LF (L)
Matt Chapman 3B
Brett Phillips (L) / Jordan Luplow CF

Bench:
Jordan Luplow/Brett Phillips OF (L)
Francisco Mejia C (S)
Taylor Walls INF (S)
Esteban Quiroz INF (L)

Rotation:
1. Shane McClanahan
2. Drew Rasmussen
3. Steven Matz (L)
4. Luis Patino
5. Shane Baz

Depth: Jose Quintana (L), Josh Fleming (L), Tobias Meyers, Tommy Romero, Yonny Chirinos (injured)

Bullpen Options:
Craig Kimbrel
Pete Fairbanks
J.P. Feyereisen
Andrew Kittredge
Ryan Thompson
JT Chargois
Adam Conley (L)
Brendan McKay (L)
Jeffrey Springs (L)
Jalen Beeks (L)
Nick Anderson (injured)
Colin Poche (L)
Louis Head (R)
Brent Honeywell Jr.
Tanner Dodson
Ryan Sherriff (L)

Payroll = ~$70 million

03 Nov 2021 16:05:45
Random note:

The Braves were 31-37 against teams with a winning record in the 2021 regular season.

Interesting.

05 Nov 2021 14:03:45
Yes, it happens. First time since 2015 that a team with a losing record against .500 teams made it to the World Series.

Maybe Rick Hahn should start emulating Alex Anthopoulos. He seemed to figure out how to win a WS despite losing his best player (and didn't make any excuses for it) .

05 Nov 2021 14:28:17
Emulate Anthopoulos more racist pre arb extensions like those of Albies and Acuna? How dare he.

05 Nov 2021 14:33:27
This is a good example of how history shows (look it up) that there is zero causation between win% against .500+ opponents in the regular season and playoff success.

This is just a narrative that Nate made up to bash the Sox and he wasn't really concerned whether or not it was rooted in reality. It only took a couple months for it to be proven bs.

05 Nov 2021 16:00:41
Birds of a feather stick together!

07 Nov 2021 12:17:56
"It only took a couple months for it to be proven bs. "

So you have one case of something happening (once in over 5 years, and for not even the 10th time in the last 20), and my point was correct over 90% over the past 2 decades.

But yes, it's all blown to pieces because of one outlier example.

You're what we in the insurance world call, "stupid".

08 Nov 2021 10:47:42
No it wasn't because of one instance. The R^2 of playoff win% regressed on vs. > .500 win% in the regular season is between .2 and .3 SINCE 1960.

If you're simply checking off if the team had a .500 or better record against > .500 teams and whether or not they won the world series, well then that's not really how correlations work, but it's good for pushing the ole narrative.

08 Nov 2021 10:49:05
In other words, only 20-30% of the variance in playoff success is explained by regular season win% vs. > .500 teams.

Not a lot.

08 Nov 2021 13:41:59
Hey man, whatever you got to do to convince yourself that the White Sox stood a chance this year!

Because, let's be honest, that's what all this boils down to. You'd be more than happy to trot out these facts if the shoe was on the other foot. We both know you would. Here was my quote, for posterity sake: "I went from 2014-2019, and out of 24 teams who made it to the LCS in their respective leagues, just THREE (3) had losing records against .500 teams"

Also, the point wasn't the World Series. It'd help if you could understand how to read for a change. It was advancing to the LCS. We actually had two instances this year. And it's still remains less than 10 times in the last 20 years. That's not even 5%.

95% of all the teams to advance to the ALCS or NLCS over the past two decades had a winning record against .500 teams.

10 Nov 2021 04:14:33
Well when you pick a random dependent variable to fit what ever narrative you’re pushing, otherwise known as the Natedog Special, you can really “prove” anything to be true.

06 Nov 2021 16:04:38
"Oh my gosh guys! His evidence was wrong one time! Therefore, it's wrong all the time! "

The Braves 2021 World Series was an outlier to the rule, and not the norm, but please, try to convince yourself that the White Sox, who can't beat good teams despite playing in the easiest division in professional sports, can win a WS. (Hint: they won't. )

That's really the root of this. You're trying to find every possible measure to convince yourself that Rick Hahn has a club that'll win a World Series. Meanwhile, the Braves, with baseball's lowest win total and absent their best player (who is objectively a top 5 player in baseball) won it all without him.

But the White Sox were absent Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez during non-crucial times and still use it as an excuse.

We can officially chalk up Alex Anthopoulos as yet another in the long line of superior GMs to Rick Hahn.

09 Nov 2021 13:49:44
Also, if you can't see why there's a direct correlation between how you play against .500 teams in the regular season to help understand how you might play against them in the postseason (every postseason team has a .500 record or better), then I'm really not sure how to help you.

It's probably one of the most obvious correlations one can consider when predicting postseason success.

And when teams with losing records against .500 teams make the playoffs, they have less than a 10% chance of moving on to the next round.

Notice I never said "zero". Not once. We can obviously find outliers. The Braves being one.

Also, most of the Vegas Oddsmakers factor in head-to-head record as well as record/ success versus similar teams. Hence why the White Sox, Braves, and Red Sox were the underdogs in every series they played.

It's hilarious that you're trying to demean a statistically proven principle, mostly out of trying to dunk on someone online. What's even funnier is that you, once again, missed dearly.

You're really, really, really trying to find a time to be right on this website. We can all see it's bothering you. Maybe one day, you'll get a prediction right. And when that day comes, you'll be about 10 predictions behind. But I'll still let you do your victory lap.

I'm rooting for you. Despite all statistical evidence, I still have faith you'll get an accurate prediction on here!

15 Nov 2021 13:21:08
"Also, if you can't see why there's a direct correlation between how you play against .500 teams in the regular season to help understand how you might play against them in the postseason (every postseason team has a .500 record or better), then I'm really not sure how to help you. "

Literally data tells us there is no substantial correlation, but OK dude. Like I said, only 20-30 % of the variance in playoff win% is explained by regular season win% vs. > .500+ teams. That's since 1960, pal.

"It's probably one of the most obvious correlations one can consider when predicting postseason success. "

Maybe in your head, Nate. You can convince yourself that anything is true. Probably is, there's objective evidence that proves your theory wrong.

"It's hilarious that you're trying to demean a statistically proven principle"

LOL, your "analysis" was to look at SEVEN seasons and used the arbitrary dependent variable of "advancing to the CS" as if that's the prefect barometer for a successful postseason. There is nothing "statistically proven", LMAOOOO. We've established that the reality in your head very rarely coincides with everyone else's.

Please don't get frustrated when someone takes freely available info, plugs it into a simple linear regression model, and proves your theory completely false. It seriously took 5 minutes. Also, the "correlation doe not equal causation" phrase is really kicking your butt.

You're out of your element.

18 Nov 2021 13:41:00
" your "analysis" was to look at SEVEN seasons and used the arbitrary dependent variable of "advancing to the CS" as if that's the prefect barometer for a successful postseason"

I mean, advancing past the first round of the playoffs likely indicates some sort of success in the playoffs, don't you agree?

And you can use the "correlation doesn't prove causation" fallacy all you want. That's what it is: a fallacy. I'm literally proving that there's a correlation between the two things, you insufferable dweeb.

How one plays PLAYOFF CALIBER teams in the regular season has direct impact on how one plays those same teams in the PLAYOFFS.

It's literally no different than suggesting that a team that struggles against right-handed pitching will probably struggle against Lance Lynn. It's the exact same correlative principle. There's obviously greater chance for variations, given the specifically small sampling, but it's a good starting point.

Again, Vegas Oddsmakers legitimately use things like a team's record against that team, or a team's overall record versus similar teams when setting odds.

The "correlation doesn't prove causation" argument might hold true if I was talking about two unrelated things. For example, if I said, "every team who has knowingly hired a DUI manager has lost in the first round" and then another team hires a similar manager, it would be dumb of me to apply that principle.

But if you can't see the correlation between facing playoff caliber teams in the regular season and playing them in the postseason, then I really can't help you.

Again, it's the EXACT STATISTIC that Vegas Oddsmakers use to determine favorites and underdogs, among other betting lines. Fangraphs legitimately uses a team's record versus .500 teams to help determine their ROS, postseason, and WS odds.

This isn't some out-of-the-blue idea I've concocted here, Gabriel. This is a tried and true correlation that is used by baseball experts everywhere.

No one, not even myself, said it's foolproof. That would be dumb.

But you tried to throw it in some "linear regression model" to make it sound really, really smart. I think you should know by now that no one on this site believes you in the slightest. I've beaten the brakes off of you for long enough around here, as have others, that you should probably give up any hope of sounding accurate.

18 Nov 2021 13:51:38
For what it's worth, your linear regression model argument got posted to an insurance/ actuary subreddit. It's getting quite the attention, and not in the good way, Leonard.

"That would be THE correlation most would look for when setting odds" said one comment.

Again, it's clear that you have never spent a minute doing actuaries or oddsmaking of any kind. Further evidence of this is you taking ZiPS and Steamer projections and thinking they are hard truths. You don't actually understand how this works, and, again, are just trying to pretend like the White Sox aren't an unmitigated joke of a baseball team.

They are. And you're, once again, completely wrong.

But this is what I've come to expect from you. And I eagerly await how you'll make it seem like you're the expert around here.

Read the room: no one is buying it, kiddo. No one.

Maybe get a prediction right, even just one, and maybe stop being a hilarious White Sox homer for two seconds, and maybe people will start buying into what you're saying. Chances are low, but it might not hurt to try.

18 Nov 2021 14:25:42
"I mean, advancing past the first round of the playoffs likely indicates some sort of success in the playoffs, don't you agree? "

Sure, but rather than using a subjective, binary barometer for postseason success, using win% is much better analysis.

"How one plays PLAYOFF CALIBER teams in the regular season has direct impact on how one plays those same teams in the PLAYOFFS. "

" This is a tried and true correlation that is used by baseball experts everywhere. "

Just keep saying these things and maybe it will eventually become true. The data directly says otherwise. Could you maybe show me how it's a "tried and true correlation", or do we all just need to believe you because you're always correct? What you're saying is objectively false. There's no way to spin it.

Seriously, in this instance, there's nothing subjective in me saying that there is not a strong correlation at all between regular season success vs. > .500 teams and postseason win%. This is quite literally objective data on a completely un-tuned, statistics 101 linear regression model.

"Further evidence of this is you taking ZiPS and Steamer projections and thinking they are hard truths. "

You're trying to say that I take too much stock in projection systems (I don't, they're merely helpful guides)

but then you say, well there's a correlation between this because IT WAS ON REDDIT, LMAO.

"Again, it's the EXACT STATISTIC that Vegas Oddsmakers use to determine favorites and underdogs, among other betting lines. "

That's fantastic, Nate. I'm not talking about oddsmaking, I'm talking about WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN REAL LIFE.

You're frustrated, and I get it. This kind of stuff isn't your forte. My evidence is 60 years of data and your evidence is Reddit.

18 Nov 2021 21:25:01
"You're trying to say that I take too much stock in projection systems (I don't, they're merely helpful guides) "

You literally tried to suggest that because Darin Ruf was projected at -0.7 WAR in 2022, per ZiPS, that he wasn't good. You conveniently never brought the argument back up when I proceeded to point out that Rico Garcia would also be better than Michael Kopech. Curious move.

"but then you say, well there's a correlation between this because IT WAS ON REDDIT, LMAO. "

No, I said I put your comment, formula included, on a subreddit with actuaries, who help insurance companies make decisions on data, and most everyone on it, people with DECADES OF STATISTICAL EXPERIENCE laughed at.

Again, just admit: you don't like the data because it doesn't benefit your stance that the Chicago White Sox are basically the greatest team ever. Because we both know that ANY STATS, anything you can find to prove your point, you'd use.

You'd even make the exact same correlation if helped your argument.

Heck, when you say things like "Don Cooper resurrected pitcher's careers", we know you'll say almost anything, so long as it works favorably toward the White Sox.

You also don't like this because it, once again, points to me being right. You're struggling with this reality, Damion. You were TORN UP INSIDE when the Giants acquired Kris Bryant for the exact key prospect as I predicted.

Or when I suggested that Craig Kimbrel was going to be a disaster for the White Sox.

Or when I said that Darin Ruf was better in 2021 than Jose Abreu.

Or when I suggested that, after 3 seasons, Farhan Zaidi would have the Giants in a better position than Rick Hahn has the White Sox. (He has more regular season and as many postseason wins in the last 3 seasons, his first 3, mind you. )

So I can see why you're struggling here. You tried to make up some fancy schmancy numbers, and they don't prove your point. But you NEED one. You're aching to get just one thing right on this here website.

So if you want, I can concede this one to you. Just to make you feel better. I'm feeling as benevolent as Rick Hahn giving up Dallas "Cy Young" Keuchel to teams for their sunk cost players.

Or maybe, just maybe, I'm as drunk as Tony La Russa on the day of his press conference.

I'll let you decide. But you can have this one. Don't say I never did anything nice for you.

19 Nov 2021 15:16:08
Could you link me to that subreddit? I'd be curious to see the context you put my comments in and what exactly their responses were. 0% of my evidence in that model was opinionated. Disagreeing with the result (different from my methodology) isn't really an option.

re: Ruf. Gnerally, guys that are projected to be almost a win BELOW replacement shouldn't be stacked up with reigning MVPs, or players with a career 132 wRC+ over almost 5000 PAs. Like I said, use it as a helpful guide. When a player is projected to be almost 3 wins better than another player, that's telling. When you start to micro-analyze projections within .3 wins or so of one another (i. e. Garcia vs. Kopech), that's where you start to misuse the intentions of the systems.

"Again, just admit: you don't like the data because it doesn't benefit your stance that the Chicago White Sox are basically the greatest team ever. Because we both know that ANY STATS, anything you can find to prove your point, you'd use. "

Huh? The data is objective. My results have nothing to do with the White Sox.

"You were TORN UP INSIDE when the Giants acquired Kris Bryant for the exact key prospect as I predicted. "

Could you show me where you're getting the inclination that I was torn up inside about KB going to SF?

"Or when I said that Darin Ruf was better in 2021 than Jose Abreu. "

He wasn't, we already proved this. The case is closed.

"Heck, when you say things like "Don Cooper resurrected pitcher's careers", we know you'll say almost anything, so long as it works favorably toward the White Sox. "

He did help resurrect some pitcher's careers, not an untrue statement. He led the greatest starting pitching performance in the history of the World Series.

Hey, at the very least, I know you keep everything I say very close to heart. Good effort on the "gotcha" examples tho.

22 Nov 2021 14:32:57
Still waiting on that link bub.

28 Nov 2021 03:03:14
Narrator:

"Nate's evidence was in fact, fake. The subreddit doesn't exist. "

11 Feb 2023 06:10:42
can anyone describe about projection system.

29 Oct 2021 02:19:10
Giants Offseason

Pick up Posey's option
Re-sign Brandon Belt 1/18.4 (qualifying offer)
Re-sign Kevin Gausman, 4/84
Re-sign Alex Wood 2/20

Non-tender Alex Dickerson

Sign:
Noah Syndergaard, 2/20
Mark Canha, 3/45
Chris Taylor, 4/72
Hector Neris, 2/16

Trade:
Acquire RHP Elieser Hernandez from MIA for C Joey Bart

Acquire RHP Cole Sulser from BAL for RHP Manuel Mercedes and LHP Nick Swiney

Lineup (with DH)
2B- Taylor/La Stella
RF- Yastrzemski
C- Posey
1B- Belt
DH- Ruf
LF- Canha
SS- Crawford
3B- Longoria
CF- Duggar/Slater

Rotation:
Webb - Gausman - Syndergaard - Wood - Hernandez

Bullpen
Doval (R) - Rogers (R) - Sulser (R) - McGee (L) - Leone (R) - Neris (R) - Alvarez (L) - J. Garcia (L)

29 Oct 2021 04:53:16
Why offer Belt the QO when you have an elite everyday 1B for ~$2.5 million already? Just banking on recouping a draft pick if he declines and signs elsewhere?!

29 Oct 2021 13:07:35
If they get the DH (which I think will happen), there's plenty of ABs to go around. Having TWO first basemen who have over 140 wRC+ is always a great problem to have.

29 Oct 2021 15:42:31
Exactly. In this scenario with the DH in the NL, it's going to fascinating to watch Ruf put up a 5 WAR season at 36 y/ o. Does he get MVP votes? Kapler will finally be able to unleash the beast from his shackles.

29 Oct 2021 17:56:18
It'll be great to see "weak side platoon player" Darin Ruf outperform Jose Abreu AGAIN. For the second year in a row.

But hey, the White Sox will pay nearly 8 times that amount to get worse production.

And therein lies the difference between the Executive of the Year and the runner-up: extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment.

But hey, I think giving up legitimately good talent for Craig Kimbrel, and giving 18M to Dallas Keuchel, 8M to Adam Eaton, and extending Jose Abreu so he can be worse than a part-time, weak-sided platoon first basemen in 200% of the plate appearances, I guess that's really good right?

I mean, at least he made sure that he never hits arbitration with any of his players! That's worthy of a Hall of Fame spot if you ask me.

29 Oct 2021 19:30:10
I commend the Giants GM for finding a superstar playing in Korea, and here you go again attacking Rick Hahn. This has to be getting personal.

Don't forget about Hahn being an abhorrent human being because of his inability to overrule his boss. Oh, and he allowed the team to compete against the Cleveland In*ians, thereby condoning their team name. Awful. That could hurt his HOF chances due to the character clause.

He also traded a generational talent for James Shields - don't sell him short.

"extracting comical amounts of value out of guys like Darin Ruf for almost no money or long-term commitment"

Hahn has literally never done this one single time. He was granted good players from a genie who he very easily traded for highly regarded prospects. Then those new players became good in the majors based on pure luck alone. In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us.

01 Nov 2021 14:39:34
"In fact, Zaidi started this "sign bad players, make them good" trend. Let's recognize greatness before us. "

I mean, the Los Angeles Dodgers are kinda the team they are because Andrew Friedman let Zaidi do what he did in Los Angeles.

That's right, one of the most talented baseball teams in MLB History is where they are because of Farhan Zaidi. So as much as you exaggerate, it's probably more true than you're comfortable with.

01 Nov 2021 15:34:19
I laugh about you mocking me for the Indians nickname. You're the only one getting your panties in a twist over it. Frankly, I don't really care. I think baseball has a lot more issues than a poorly contrived caricature of a people group.

Some of them include:

-Allowing low-character individuals to keep having jobs in baseball. Rick Hahn was literally okay with his team hiring TLR, he even praised it later on. He also reportedly really wanted A. J. Hinch, who led one of the biggest cheating scandals in baseball history.

-Taking advantage of low-income and disadvantaged minorities through pre-arbitration deals that limit those individuals' ability to make more money later on. What would Tim Anderson make through arbitration right now? More or less than 9M? (Hint: the answer is WAY, WAY more than 9M) . The White Sox knew that Anderson, Moncada, and Jimenez would get way more expensive for them down the road, so they took advantage of them and offered them upfront money knowing those players had next to no leverage to turn down those offers. It's interesting how they didn't do this with Lucas Giolito or Andrew Vaughn. Could it be that those guys come from upper-class households and thus had leverage in turning down deals? No way. That could never be the case.

Now, I'm not suggesting that the White Sox are the only team doing this. I would never. But according to you, they "revolutionized" it.

Once again, look through the players that have historically sign these deals. Other than ones with high-variance and low-expectations (i. e. Scott Kingery, Evan White), the over-whelming majority are non-white players or players from lower economic environments.

I don't think that's merely coincidental. And before you say it, yes, the Giants have their history with doing this, although they have typically reserved this practice for pitchers (i. e. Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum), and they haven't done it for several seasons now.

To the White Sox, this is what Hahn gets praised for: taking advantage of zero-leverage players.

But yes, let's cover our eyes and think that a team's nickname is the big problem!

02 Nov 2021 04:51:44
Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. This scandal will be greater than the Astros.

Guys like Moncada and Robert were obviously struggling after the respective $32 million and $26 million signing bonuses they got out of Cuba were running out. Hahn clearly took advantage. I suppose maybe in snooty San Francisco those would be considered low socioeconomic incomes, but otherwise I think those guys were able to narrowly get by pre-extensions. Luis Robert’s new Naruto-wrapped Lamborghini Aventor is a good signal of that, I’d say. Poor guys.

I guess Hahn’s moral compass is much worse than yours when your alternative is to pay the organization’s minority players the least amount possible for as long as possible.

Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? I guess the Giants said thanks to their rivals for giving them the most influential executive in baseball history by losing to them when it counted. That was nice.

05 Nov 2021 13:14:38
"Did Zaidi get a ring last year from the Dodgers as a result of him being the only reason why they won? "

He didn't. But reportedly, he received a nice gift from Andrew Friedman as a recognition of what he helped build. No indication of what that was. To be clear, Zaidi has taken teams he runs to more World Series than Rick Hahn EVER will. 2017 and 2018, he was there. 2020, just 2 seasons removed, the Dodgers were back.

Again, this is more than Ol' Ricky can say.

05 Nov 2021 13:32:57
"Yes. I distinctly remember the White Sox holding their young players at gun point without food and water for long periods of time and forcing them to sign $70 million contracts. "

Yeah, maybe refrain from mocking Charles Johnson and his stupid donations when you yourself don't understand the nature of systemic racism that is rampant in the game, especially through pre-arb deals.

The idea that "they aren't hurting" is so hilariously off that you can't possibly think you're being serious.

If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time.

The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. They knew those guys couldn't afford the risk of going year-to-year in arbitration and possibly facing non-tender if they tank. So they offered money way, way lower than the projected value to those players, knowing they'd accept.

Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here?

The White Sox are literally taking minority, low-economic class players and limiting their earning potential through pre-arb deals that are 100% to the benefit of the team, long term. They do this, again, knowing that the players have no leverage to turn it down.

They are willingly and actively manipulating and limiting the earning potential of minority players. In fact, it's almost a sure bet that if the White Sox have a young, talented minority baseball star, they'll sign them to one of these deals.

And I fully expect them to do the same with Cespedes and Oscar Colas.

They LOVE manipulating the earning power of minority players. It's just what they do.

05 Nov 2021 13:37:24
That nice gift was an early trip to Cabo while the Dodgers went to the NLCS.

05 Nov 2021 16:05:40
What did TLR do to celebrate his one playoff win? My guess: probably did a bunch of Jaegerbombs and drove Robert's Lambo all across the greater Chicago area.

It's just what he does.

05 Nov 2021 17:51:09
Joking about DUI? Ahhhh.

07 Nov 2021 12:08:56
I mean, which would you rather see: someone joking about a guy getting multiple DUIs, or someone willingly hiring a guy with multiple DUIs.

You have a hard time seeing the forest for the trees, so I'm not surprised by you feigning some level of disgust here.

The White Sox just comically overpaid for another under-performing white guy, and they won't pay minorities even close to their value in arbitration. They also knowingly and willing hired Tony La Russa.

Maybe point your anger that way.

08 Nov 2021 10:51:15
The Giants better not sign a single white player this season. Seeing that most and their good players are already white, you have to question whether their intentions. Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear?

08 Nov 2021 14:00:16
LOL. Are you being intentionally obtuse, or is this something that comes naturally for you? I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here, but you're making me lose faith.

If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game, I really don't know if I can help you. And you should probably stop trying to move this to Charles Johnson, who literally HAS NOT MADE A SINGLE DIRECTIVE TO THE GIANTS IN OVER A DECADE. Greg Johnson made it explicitly clear that Charles Johnson just acts as principal owner and hasn't been in a board meeting in years. His voice is worthless to the Giants.

Even Zaidi and many within the Giants front office spoke up in regards to Johnson's questionable campaign donations. Zaidi then assured that he's not heard a directive from Charles since he started, and Bobby Evans confirmed the same thing.

Unlike Jerry Reinsdorf, who willingly hired a horrible human being and his entire front office just went along with it.

The Giants will likely sign white players. They'll probably sign minority players. They just picked up Jay Jackson's 2022 option, despite them not exactly needing him in 2022, if you want just one example.

This isn't to say that the Giants don't have their own set of issues, but they've also acknowledged it and publicly stated their desire to get better and work against their own prejudices.

Meanwhile, Rick Hahn just overpaid Craig Kimbrel by 100-200% of his actual value, but desperately seeks to underpay his own minority players. There's not a single public statement made from him about systemic racism. Not one.

He's one of just three GMs/ PBOs who haven't made a statement of anything across the game. And his own personnel decisions when it comes to which players they acquire, play, and for how much, make it evidently clear why that's the case.

08 Nov 2021 14:22:05
"Are they even targeting minorities? Or is Charles Johnson's directive clear? "

Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach?

Man, his directive was heard loud and clear by the organization. They clearly don't employ any minorities!

Seriously, you sound ridiculous.

But as they say, a hit dog will holler. And you are definitely hollering right now.

10 Nov 2021 04:40:43
“ If you can't see how pre-arb deals for Latino and minority players are evidence of systemic racism throughout the game”

This will remain the most idiotic take on this site for a long, long time. You are literally arguing for the alternative which guarantees that players are paid the league minimum for the first 3 season followed by 3 seasons where they are paid a % of their marginal revenue product. The club assumes ZERO risk from year to year.

The players have all the power in the world to turn down these massive extensions no matter their race, because at worst, they’re paid a league minimum value that is more than 88% of American households make. They can still get plenty of food on the table. Usually, players in the position to accept these deals are well on their way to making millions of dollars through their arb years. They don’t need the extension to become millionaires.

People inherently don’t want their compensation to vary from year to year based on performance, it’s why the compensation smoothing phenomenon is real. These deals greatly benefit both sides at the moment they are signed, but this should be obvious because THAT’S WHY THEY’RE MUTUALLY AGREED UPON IN THE FIRST PLACE. Some work out great for the players and some work out great for their teams.

“Should someone tell Charles Johnson he employs multiple black players (Jackson, Davis, Wade)? Or nearly a dozen Latino players? Or a Muslim president of baseball operations? Or a black coach? Or a, gasp, female coach? ”

LOL! This is the Giants version of, “I have a black friend, I can’t be racist. ”

Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team?

06 Nov 2021 14:26:03
"The White Sox know that Robert, Moncada Jimenez, Anderson didn't have the leverage to turn down $50M. "

Again, Moncada and Robert had humungous signing bonuses in their back pockets. They had all of the leverage in the world. The White Sox guaranteed Tim Anderson $25 million after 398 games of an 86 wRC+. He wasn't considering if he was ever going to be worth $100 million+ at the time, he was trying to survive in the league and the Sox guaranteed him life changing money. He'll end up making $52 million from the contract. How obtuse and out of touch can you be?

Since TA's extension he's hit .322/ .349/ .495 with a 127 wRC+ and is one of the faces of baseball. It's not racism, lmao, it's a smart investment. If Anderson was confident enough in himself that he'd ascend to stardom like this, he could simply turn it down and still make more than 99% of Americans do over the course of 6 years. He also got a $2.2 million signing bonus out of a junior college, so he would have been a very wealthy human being either way.

"If I told you that I could either pay you $100M over the next 6 years, or $50M, but I'm willingly pushing to pay you $50M, you'd be rightfully livid. You wouldn't care that $50M is "enough to live on" when you could literally make 50-100% more money over the same period of time. "

What? the $100 million is not guaranteed. You could could play terribly and get non-tendered or sustain a career-altering injury and walk away only having made 1-3 years of league minimum. Both sides are taking a risk with a pre-arb extension. If it was as easy as choosing $100 million or $50 million, there would never be a contract extension. But it's not that simple. Players in general would rather have their contracts be guaranteed year to year rather than it being based on their performance even if means sacrificing some total dollars. It's called compensation smoothing.

Don't mention Chris Sale or Aaron Bummer tho and their pre-arb extensions with the White Sox. They don't fit your convoluted narrative so they don't count in this instance.

The Braves did the same thing with Albies and Acuna, is their FO racist too? How about the Brewers with Freddy Peralta? Yankees and Aaron Hicks? Cleveland and Jose Ramirez? Cardinals and Carlos Martinez? Philly and Odubel Herrera?

Boston tried to extend Mookie Betts tried numerous times but he bet on himself and it paid off. All of the player listed above, including the Sox players could have done the exact same thing.

So now if any club signs a minority player to an extension, they are racist. And again, your alternative is to pay them the league minimum for as long as possible before only giving them a percentage of their market value through arbitration. Which option is manipulating earning power again?

"Again, ask why Lucas Giolito, who grew up in an area where the average household AGI is over $400K or Andrew Vaughn (avg. household AGI is over $150K) weren't signing those deals? Or Dylan Cease ($128K)? Sense a theme here? "

They are trying to extend all three, but none of them are as wealthy as Robert or Moncada were before they signed their extensions. But again, you're advocating that the team guarantee the white players more money. You're shooting your own argument in the foot.

This is a terribly embarrassing argument by you. How you continue to get worse is beyond me, and everyone else on this site.

14 Nov 2021 19:36:47
"Of their projected started nine, the Giants have one minority player. Pretty despicable if you ask me. You voluntarily support this team? "

Once again, a hit dog sure does holler. Your desperate attempts to hide the systemic racism that is RAMPANT in the White Sox front office, as well as the incredibly low moral character of their executives. I'd probably try and use a lot of words to try and defend it as well, especially if I knew how horrendous they truly were.

Seriously, I'm beginning to think your character is that of TLR's with these defenses.

I kind of feel bad for you.

15 Nov 2021 13:31:39
You're saying that I'm hiding the theoretical systematic racism in the contract extension market (a tremendous stretch at that, and you still have yet to address my rebuttal of the alternative to an extension for these minority players), yet your team's blatantly racist owner is off the hook because "oh, he's not really involved".

It's very convenient for you.

You're not looking for a discussion, you're looking to point the racism finger, which is usually reserved for someone who lacks other defendable arguments.

TBH, an argument that the current CBA contractual control structure is "racist" would have been better than the contract extension market where both sides literally have to agree.

17 Nov 2021 16:34:44
LOL. Yes, we're talking about the DECISION MAKERS in these cases.

Charles Johnson doesn't make any decisions for Giants personnel issues. Rick Hahn and apparently, Jerry Reinsdorf do.

Charles Johnson doesn't get a pass for being a grimy creep, but when we're talking about racism as it pertains to a ballclub, you might be able to deduce that a non-involved owner shouldn't be considered, don't you think?

Again, your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit.

You're supporting a racist team who also doesn't care that their manager is a drunk and risked people's lives. Maybe focus on that before trying to throw complete non-sequiturs into the fold.

18 Nov 2021 14:49:57
Ok Nate, we can just pretend that the Giants' largest shareholder makes absolutely zero decisions regarding what the organization does. That totally makes sense. I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making?

It's just one big racist family business out in San Fran.

Surely they have a saint of a CEO, right? Nope. Larry Baer gets physical with his wife on occasion, but soon Nate will tell us that he also doesn't have anything to do with the team's operations or decision-making.

What was that you said? "your character is that of trying to throw someone else into the mix to try and minimize your awfulness. It's a bad look for you, but I'm not surprised in the least bit. "

The irony, LMAO.

Maybe I should start making the argument that TLR doesn't actually make any of the calls from the dugout, that it's Miguel Cairo and Tony is just there for show. That way he's off the hook!

01 Dec 2021 19:33:30
" I'm sure the team's chairman, Johnson's son, shares some of the same views as his daddy too. Does he also have nothing to do with decision making? "

He has, on MULTIPLE OCCASIONS, made it known that he doesn't hold any of the same political views as his father. We've been over this. And when Charles was making those donations, it was pointed out that he is merely a silent partner, who continues to just rake in the money. Nothing more. He literally hasn't been a part of the board meetings, whose minutes are publicly available, in years.

As for Larry Baer, he served a several month, unpaid suspension for his actions. He has sought the help he needs, and been very forthright, publicly, about his short-comings.

Did Tony La Russa even get a punishment from his own team? Nope. They tried to HIDE THE INFORMATION and pretend like they didn't know. They paraded him like he was this excellent manager.

Do you need reminded that their second choice was a guy CAUGHT IN ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHEATING SCANDALS IN BASEBALL HISTORY?

The White Sox couldn't wait to hire a piece of _____ as their team's manager. Hahn had his choice. Jerry had his.

Turns out, the drunk driver got picked over the cheater. But yes, that's so much better than a silent partner.

27 Oct 2021 04:46:10
A 3-team, 10 player trade? Yes.

White Sox, Diamondbacks, Angels

White Sox Get:
Ketel Marte 2B/OF

DBacks Get:
Justin Upton OF
Griffin Canning RHP
Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF
Wes Kath 3B
Yolbert Sanchez SS
Micker Adolfo OF

Angels Get:
Nick Ahmed SS
David Peralta OF
Dallas Keuchel LHP

Thoughts?

28 Oct 2021 15:05:36
The CWSox would love getting Ketel Marte. no doubt.

The rest of the deal is a mish-mash of distastefulness.

-Why would the Angels consider losing a young/ controllable SP. but would take back Old Man Keuchel? .

-The DBax are going full rebuild at this point. but would want a $ 28 MM salary from Justin Upton. Why would they want to see Amed leave and have his replacement as Sanchez?

It's a confusing deal for the DBax and Angels. but the CWSox definitely get their guy.

28 Oct 2021 18:32:22
I'm not sure that Vaughn + Sanchez is enough to cover the $28M of unnecessary salary going to Arizona.

Not to mention, Griffin Canning isn't very good, and young pitching is something the Diamondbacks have quite a bit of, and most of them exist as better options than Canning.

And Adolfo will be out of options, so the Diamondbacks, who are rebuilding, would likely want a player they can option out if they should choose to. They can't do so with Adolfo.

28 Oct 2021 18:35:10
As for the Angels, I think they might consider trading Ohtani for longer than they'd consider this deal.

They'll have a myriad of options via free agency for SS, OF, and starting pitching. Paying almost 35M for 3 past-prime players, when much, much better options exist elsewhere would be silly.

28 Oct 2021 19:35:50
So Upton is essentially a sunk cost at this point. He hasn't been a league average hitter since 2018 and is a liability in the outfield. So he's going to sit on the bench or be a weak-side platoon piece as one of the highest AAVs in baseball. By offloading 100% of his money and acquiring Ahmed, Peralta and Keuchel for only another $6 million TOTAL, they would be filling three of their needs - 1. An above avg. defensive SS, 2. a left handed OFer who isn't exciting, but has much better upside than Upton IMO, and #. a back end starter (You could argue they need to add 4 SPs to be competitive) who, yes was objectively bad in 2021, but they can think of it as paying him $2 million in 2022 for a rebound. That defensive INF with Keuchel's GB% would be a nice pairing theoretically.

Again, it's a $6 million addition for all three guys in 2022, so you can defiantly go out and sign two more SPs (Scherzer, Ray, etc. ) and a versatile bat (a la Chris Taylor) .

By taking on Upton for 2022 in this deal, they actually still net $20 million in savings, so it's not just the prospects in exchange for taking on $.

And I disagree about Adolfo, Nate. Arizona is exactly the team where he makes sense as they would be able to give him opportunities to see if his raw talent can manifest into Major League production. If he stinks, they can just outright him likely without fear that he'd be claimed.

28 Oct 2021 19:39:09
To be honest, I expect to see a lot of posts from Chi Sox where the White Sox conveniently find a taker for Dallas Keuchel and also get something good for him.

So let's remind the world of Dallas Keuchel's stats:
ERA- 5.28
FIP- 5.22
K/ 9- 5.28
K/ BB- 1.61

Now, for his rank among all starters with 100 innings pitched minimum (129 players in total)

ERA- 114th
FIP- 120th
K/ 9- 128th
K/ BB- 128th

He's literally one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And yet, the White Sox can both dump him off to the Angels AND get Ketel Marte as a part of that package, without taking on any money themselves.

How awfully convenient!

28 Oct 2021 20:14:25
If you read above (this often needs to be reiterated with you, Nate) -- like I said, Keuchel was bad in '21, so thanks for finding evidence to confirm what I already said? LAA would essentially be paying next to nothing for him. They have no use for Upton, Keuchel has an opportunity to bounce back to be a serviceable veteran left-hander with plenty of postseason experience, whether you think that's likely or not.

The Sox are also giving up some good young players here. They, along with LAA, are filling holes inexpensively. Arizona is getting 5 controllable players and save money in total while getting it off their books quicker.

So saying an Ohtani trade is more likely is completely asinine and right up your alley.

29 Oct 2021 01:57:44
"Post season experience"

He had an 8.10 ERA in the 2020 playoffs and was so bad in 2021 that the White Sox didn't even let him pitch in the postseason. Unless the White Sox are paying down 12-15M of Keuchel's salary, I see zero reason why the Angels would want to shell out 18M for a #5 (at best) starting pitcher hoping he might bounce back.

I also posted my Keuchel stats before your rebuttal was posted, so I'm curious how you expected me to read what you said?

29 Oct 2021 02:06:33
Also

"So Upton is essentially a sunk cost at this point. He hasn't been a league average hitter since 2018 and is a liability in the outfield. So he's going to sit on the bench or be a weak-side platoon piece as one of the highest AAVs in baseball. "

So, exactly why would Arizona want him? If anything, Arizona is more likely to OFFLOAD money, not take more on. And I don't think that Andrew Vaughn suddenly makes it worth it to take on $28M of sunk cost AND give up their most valuable asset.

The more and more I look at this, the more I think it's actually pretty bad for Arizona.

I think this return WITHOUT Upton is pretty close. With Upton, the White Sox probably need to give up Cespedes and possibly Crochet as well.

29 Oct 2021 04:38:53
Arizona does offload money in total. Please read.

29 Oct 2021 04:44:50
And the good thing about the return for ARI is Vaughn isn’t the only asset they get back. Kath and Sanchez are good prospects.

LAA is only taking on net $6 million, for THREE guys that fit. They could do this and still theoretically go after Scherzer and Ray, or one of those and try to build a bullpen on the fly.

29 Oct 2021 13:12:21
There's zero reason for the Diamondbacks to offload money for USEFUL players only to take on 28M (which is more than they shed) for dead money.

It literally makes zero sense.

And getting a 1B prospect who looked completely outmatched in his rookie season along with some high variance middling prospects probably isn't worth giving up Ketel Marte AND taking on 28M of dead money.

This isn't to say that Kath and Sanchez don't have positive outlooks, but this is Arizona selling very, very low on Ketel Marte (and the White Sox conveniently buying very, very low) .

29 Oct 2021 13:14:19
Frankly, if you wanted this to look remotely fair, I'd do the following:

1. Move Upton to the White Sox.
2. Replace Wes Kath with Jared Kelley
3. Keep Keuchel on the White Sox.

The White Sox dodging 46M in salary and still getting Ketel Marte is so laughably one-sided that it's hard to take this seriously at all.

29 Oct 2021 13:19:08
"LAA is only taking on net $6 million"

But they could take on that "net 6 million" with better, more useful players, could they not?

Why pay $18M for Dallas Keuchel when they could pay significantly less for a better pitcher? They could just not acquire Keuchel and instead get Scherzer (35M) and a very good pitcher for 8-14M a year and save at least 4M.

The same is true for both Ahmed and Peralta. There are far, far better options out there for the Angels. Why lock yourself into some of the worst options?

It makes no sense for them. They could just spend that money on better players.

29 Oct 2021 15:37:08
"But they could take on that "net 6 million" with better, more useful players, could they not? "

No, probably not. Not a league average corner OF bat, a 5th starter and one of the best defensive SS in the game. Even with all three coming off of down years, Peralta, Keuchel and Ahmed would cost at least $15 million on the open market.

"The same is true for both Ahmed and Peralta. There are far, far better options out there for the Angels. Why lock yourself into some of the worst options? "

The beautiful thing is that they're not locking themselves out of anything. You're acquiring depth for $6 million. By filling LF and SS, they can allocate all of their resources to where they should -- the rotation and the bullpen. Then if they still want to still add a bat, they could go after Bryant or Taylor as a versatile ​bat.

Do you really think they're going to be the mix for one of the top tier SS? I don't. Who's to be had after that?

"there's zero reason for the Diamondbacks to offload money for USEFUL players only to take on 28M (which is more than they shed) for dead money. "

Math is hard:

Peralta is owed $8 million
Ahmed is owed $18 million
Marte is owed $30 million

Upton is owed $28 million

Can we agree that $56 million > $28 million? Or are we going to disagree wth that too? Even without Marte, they'd be taking on an extra $2 million to not owe anything in 2023.

"And getting a 1B prospect who looked completely outmatched in his rookie season along with some high variance middling prospects probably isn't worth giving up Ketel Marte AND taking on 28M of dead money. "

Vaughn had a 107 wRC+ through August (prior to landing on the IL with a back injury) playing a position he'd never played after a mere 245 minor league PAs. This includes the mid-June to mid-August stretch where he hit .303/ .367/ .528 with a 144 wRC+ in 200 PAs. If that's completely over matched to you, then OK I guess.

You want to argue for Kelley over Kath? Fine, but some clubs would value Kath over Kelley I think. I think another valid argument would be that LAA needs to send a better piece than Canning to ARI.

For the sake of a thought experiment, Nate, if a salary floor was part of the new CBA, would that change your opinion of this deal, particularly for Arizona?

29 Oct 2021 18:23:50
"For the sake of a thought experiment, Nate, if a salary floor was part of the new CBA, would that change your opinion of this deal, particularly for Arizona? "

No, it wouldn't. Just because owners would be forced to spend a minimum amount of $$$ doesn't mean they are just going to throw it any player with two thumbs.

I could see them taking on Upton for one reason, and one only:

They "buy" a prospect or a package of prospects, but keep Ketel Marte. They then get to get good young talent, meet their salary threshold, and then find a better, more advantageous deal for Ketel Marte.

The Diamondbacks would get Andrew Vaughn for Ketel Marte, straight up, if not even more going back their way. There'd be no reason to include Upton or Keuchel (both of whom are "dead money" at this point in their careers) .

29 Oct 2021 19:37:44
"The Diamondbacks would get Andrew Vaughn for Ketel Marte, straight up, if not even more going back their way. There'd be no reason to include Upton or Keuchel (both of whom are "dead money" at this point in their careers) . "

Taking on Upton nets Arizona value, they aren't sacrificing it. You are struggling to wrap your head around the math. They are getting a nice return for Marte alone and are cutting payroll commitments by 100% overall. They leave the deal with Bumgarner's $23 million as the only $ committed for 2023.

01 Nov 2021 15:03:26
"Taking on Upton nets Arizona value, they aren't sacrificing it. "

Remaining money: Ahmed + Peralta = 26M; Justin Upton = 28M.

The Diamondbacks, who are looking to shed money, are taking on MORE money, and worse, more money on a player who is objectively worse than the two they are "shedding".

Ahmed + Peralta 2022 WAR = 2-3 (esitmated)
Justin Upton 2022 WAR = 0.5

So the Diamondbacks lose 2-3 wins, by dumping "one of the best defensive SS in the game" and a "league average corner OF bat" (both of whom could, according to you, get $15M on the open market) and instead, they get Justin Upton at a cost of $2M more?

This doesn't factor in the cost of a player to fill the roster spot that has to play SS in Arizona in 2022. So let's just add $4M more.

To replace the "cost cutting" of Ahmed and Peralta, the Diamondbacks add $6M in payroll.

Not to mention, the Diamondbacks can do a whole lot more than "break even" on Ketel Marte. Someone will overpay, significantly for him. The dude was literally a nearly 3-win player in less than 400 PAs and is on an insanely team-friendly deal through 2024.

You seem to think that Mike Hazen is just interested in breaking even on that trade. I promise you, he's not, and he won't have to.

01 Nov 2021 15:11:43
A White Sox-Diamondbacks trade that would be more likely, for Marte:

White Sox get: Ketel Marte; Drew Ellis
Diamondbacks get: Andrew Vaughn; Yoelqui Cespedes, Yolbert Sanchez, Jared Kelley

That represents a pretty decent overpay, but the White Sox are literally getting an MVP-caliber 2B/ CF for $8M (the exact same amount Hahn paid Adam Eaton last year LOL) . It also allows them to keep Jose Abreu at 1B for the foreseeable future.

It allows the Diamondbacks to accelerate their rebuild with 3 prospects (including Vaughn, who technically isn't a prospect anymore) to be ready by 2023, where they'll have no financial commitments beyond Bumgarner and Ahmed, both of whom they could clear by then.

To be clear, the Diamondbacks are taking on 100% of the risk here. Not one of those prospects, including Vaughn, is a can't-miss type player. Not a single one. And because we're talking about the White Sox system here, it's obvious that this deal would be outdone by at least a dozen teams, probably closer to 20, all of whom would see Marte as an obvious upgrade over what they currently have.

So yeah, the moral of the story here is: The White Sox aren't, ever, getting Ketel Marte for the hilariously one-sided trade you proposed.

03 Nov 2021 02:33:27
If Vaughn isn’t “can’t miss”, then exactly who is? I’d say he’s a top-5 “safe hitter” prospect. And FWIW, I wouldn’t call any prospect “can’t miss”. He was a consensus top-20 prospect for a reason.

You were also ignoring the money owed to Marte. The Diamondbacks leave this deal committed to less money than when they entered. You are still clearly confused. They also wouldn’t have Ahmed’s $10 million on the books for 2023, where, like you said, then could at least start buying some interesting players.

Even if Marte isn’t included in the calculation, you’re taking on a front-loaded sum that’s only $2 million more than you’re giving up and getting Canning (or if you don’t like him, then a pitching prospect of your liking) as compensation.

But your big addition is to add a 35+ OFer in Cespedes? In exchange for Wes Kath? Kath is probably their best hitting prospect. Your package isn’t so much different from mine and one could easily argue that mine was better.

05 Nov 2021 13:51:23
Ketel Marte is completely underpaid. Yeah, an underpaid minority player. I can see why the White Sox would desperately want him.

And also absolutely not want the vastly overpaid minority player that is Justin Upton. They'd just rather overpay white players like Adam Eaton, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and possibly even Hendriks and Lynn.

Acting like Ketel Marte's contract is something undesirable for Arizona is hilarious and yet, completely within what I expect from you. Any team employing him is getting a 4-5 win potential player for 8M. Again, the White Sox paid that same amount to DFA Adam Eaton midway through the season. That's what kind of value we're talking about here.

"Even if Marte isn’t included in the calculation, you’re taking on a front-loaded sum that’s only $2 million more than you’re giving up and getting Canning (or if you don’t like him, then a pitching prospect of your liking) as compensation. "

You're, once again, missing the point. The issue is that if the Diamondbacks are going to sell low on Marte by also dealing out Ahmed and Peralta, then why would they also take on $28M?

Their goal is to clear any and all money, future or present. Taking on $28M now AND selling low on their most valuable trade asset does nothing but hurt them.

It continues to make less and less sense for the Diamondbacks the more you try and sell this trade.

05 Nov 2021 14:38:32
"And also absolutely not want the vastly overpaid minority player that is Justin Upton. They'd just rather overpay white players like Adam Eaton, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and possibly even Hendriks and Lynn. "

hahaha. I can see the Jeff Passan tweet now:

"To fight racism, the White Sox are trading Lucas Giolito, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Aaron Bummer to the Angels for Justin Upton and his guaranteed $28 million. "

05 Nov 2021 16:09:56
I can see the Bob Nightengale tweet now:

"Sources: Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen taking on a $28M bench player and some mediocre young players to sell really low on Ketel Marte. "

The thing is, even old Bobby N would be more believable than you. That's pretty sad, even by your standards.

05 Nov 2021 17:55:40
I think it's funny that you hope for Marco Luciano's sake, Zaidi doesn't offer him life changing money through a pre-arb extension where everybody wins because he's 100% guaranteed to sign a $100 million contract after his 6 seasons of control.

This is a new level of stupid.

07 Nov 2021 12:13:30
Why would I care one bit that the Giants get a deal on Marco Luciano (or hope for it)? I don't. I'd love to see Luciano get paid as much as he possibly can over the course of his career.

It's literally not my money and I never root for owners. So I want to see players make the most of their money. (I'll still mock it when teams overpay for talent, a la Rick Hahn. )

See, I'm not racist. I don't love cheering on dudes who legitimately take advantage of minority players. It seems you have zero qualms with this issue. But yet, QAnon, that's the squeaky wheel! Yeah, perhaps a little introspection could go a long way, Brandon.

08 Nov 2021 11:03:20
You arguments are just patently awful.

So if both parties enter into a risky proposition, i. e. The Sox handing an 86 wRC+ hitter $25 million guaranteed to a hitter who they are confident will become worth that contract because of his raw talent, there are two possible outcomes.

1. Tim Anderson continues to hit to a 86 wRC+ or worse and is worth no where near that contract. In this case you argue good for TA for maximizing on his potential.

or

2. Anderson turns into a star and the Sox are racist for handing him life changing money at a time where he was 14% worse than that the average performer in his field.

Your argument is as dumb as they come.

"See, I'm not racist. I don't love cheering on dudes who legitimately take advantage of minority players. "

No, you just cheer for a club that hardly employs any minority players.

08 Nov 2021 14:17:21
"No, you just cheer for a club that hardly employs any minority players. "

Minority players on current 40-Man Rosters:

White Sox: 13. Anderson, Moncada. Abreu, Grandal, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Lopez, Ruiz, Mercedes, Severino, Zavala.

Giants: 14. Wade, Flores, Estrada, Castro, Doval, Garcia, Alvarez, Jackson, Gonzalez, Nunez, Dubon, Davis, Santos, Marte.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Seriously, do you just say nonsense and pray that it's true? The Giants legitimately employ more minorities than the White Sox, and it's not just players. They have a black coach (Richardson), AAPI coaches (Correa, Uematsu), and even a female coach (Nakken) . For crying out loud, they have a Muslim man of Pakistani descent leading their front office.

This might be your most ridiculous take yet. And that's truly saying something.

The Giants very well may be one of the most diverse organizations in baseball history.

Seriously, I don't know whether to laugh at you or just feel bad for you. I think I'll find a mixture of both and settle for that. So pathetic.

13 Nov 2021 11:55:37
Exactly, the Giants have some role players and roster filler minority players while the Sox's core was built with minority players. It really begs the question whether or not the Giants are comfortable with minority players as the face of their franchise moving forward.

It's a tough look as they search for the next Aubrey Huff in free agency, lol.

14 Nov 2021 19:30:39
"It's a tough look as they search for the next Aubrey Huff in free agency, lol. "

Yes, the same Aubrey Huff who is essentially banned from the clubhouse, stadium, and scrubbed from all of their recent history, yes, that's who they are looking for!

But hey, you should probably hope Tony La Russa doesn't fall off the wagon. He's been known to do that, and the White Sox literally don't care the least bit!

15 Nov 2021 13:33:27
He was banned and "scrubbed from recent history" after he stopped providing the organization with value, Nate. Open your eyes.

17 Nov 2021 16:37:51
"He was banned and "scrubbed from recent history" after he stopped providing the organization with value"

So you agree that he was banned? And yet you tried to backdoor a pathetically stupid argument into the conversation, why?

Literally, the Giants refuse to have any further association with an awful, terrible human being like Aubrey Huff.

Meanwhile, Tony La Russa is STILL EMPLOYED BY THE WHITE SOX! And they literally hired him knowing he had DUI charges, and didn't care, in the slightest.

What your sad, feeble attempt proved was that the Giants disassociate with awful human beings and the White Sox do not.

So thanks for clearing that up/.

18 Nov 2021 16:14:09
Again, when Huff was performing on the field and winning World Series, employing him for three years was no big deal. This shouldn't be surprising though considering who runs the team.

The Giants do not disassociate with awful human beings given that they are run by the Johnson family and Larry Baer.