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22 Dec 2023 17:44:51
Some Dylan Cease Trade Packages:

Baltimore Orioles:

Coby Mayo 3B/1B/RF
Joey Ortiz SS
Trace Bright RHP
Carlos Tavera RHP

New York Yankees:

Jasson Dominguez OF
Oswald Peraza SS
Luis Gil RHP
Luis Velasquez RHP

New York Mets:

Drew Gilbert OF
Jett Williams OF/SS
Dominic Hamel RHP
Nate Lavender LHP

Los Angeles Dodgers:

Emmett Sheehan RHP
Andy Pages OF
Ricky Vanasco RHP
Hunter Feduccia C

Cincinnati Reds:
Noelvi Marte INF
Chase Petty RHP
Hunter Hollan LHP
Hector Rodriguez OF

Boston Red Sox:

Ceddanne Rafaela UTL
Nick Yorke 2B
Wikelman Gonzalez RHP
Chase Meidroth 3B

Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver RHP
Hurston Waldrep RHP
Vaughn Grissom SS/2B
Luis Sanchez INF

Arizona Diamondbacks:

*With Eloy Jimenez also included*

Druw Jones OF
Tommy Troy 2B
Yu-Min Lin LHP
Spencer Giesting LHP
Wilderd Patiño OF

Believable2 Unbelievable4

04 Jan 2024 12:35:35
This sort of gigantic haul would make sense if the White Sox were trading away the 2022 version of Dylan Cease.

Cease has two years of team control and still maintains tremendous upside, but there's no chance a team is paying this sort of price for Cease after the 2023 season he had.

I think Cease makes more sense as a trade deadline guy, as teams will want to see what he's done and there may be more desperation.

Agree3 Disagree0

14 Jan 2024 17:16:13
Cease's 3.7 fWAR was the 18th best among pitchers in 2023. His 12.6 fWAR is the 8th best over the last 3 seasons.

His ERA was 2.38 runs higher in 2024 despite only 0.62 rise in FIP. He suffered a 70-point (! ) BABIP rise.

He was better in 2022, but he's still an ace.

Agree0 Disagree3

15 Jan 2024 19:12:40
Dylan Cease's projections put him around similar production to Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga.

He's a solid pitcher, but no one is gutting the top-end of their farm system for him.

Agree2 Disagree0

15 Jan 2024 22:07:19
He nets a top-50 player and another in the top 85-120.

Agree0 Disagree2

15 Jan 2024 22:14:30
"He's a solid pitcher" - yes, the 8th best in baseball over the last three years. Very solid indeed.

Agree0 Disagree2

16 Jan 2024 02:10:07
No one is paying that price for a player who projects to be as good as Marcus Stroman next year LMAOOOO.

They could still get a really good return for Cease if they realize that Cease is not going to repeat his 2022. All projections have him as worse than 2023. But if they want to demand 2022 prices, then they can screw up their shot at getting on with their rebuild.

That window closed FAST!

Agree0 Disagree0

16 Jan 2024 02:55:03
What about Cease, heading into his age 28 season, makes you so confident that his best days are behind him despite him being a consistent 1 or 2 starter over the past 3 seasons?


They should demand a price for a guy that has been the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons who still has a TON of upside. If they don't get it, then wait until the deadline. The guy has never been close to the IL. He struggled mightily through stretches last season and still wound up with a top-20 season for a SP. He's a stud.

He's 4.3 wins better than Stroman over the last three seasons & Steamer has Cease more than a half-win better than Stroman in '24. The comparison makes no sense - not sure what you're getting at.

Agree0 Disagree3

16 Jan 2024 03:42:02
Being projected as a a “half-win” better than Stroman for 2024 is kind of making my point. Teams aren’t giving up anywhere close to the return you’re suggesting for a guy who is barely projected to be better than Stroman or Imanaga.

You’re asking teams, who are already hesitant to give up massive returns by way of prospects, to give up huge returns for a guy coming off a pretty bad year and projected to be worse in 2024.

There is just no reason for any team to do that. And there’s no reason for the White Sox to further diminish Cease’s value. They HAVE to drop the asking price. There’s a good return out there for Dylan Cease. But it’s foolish if this is what they insist on.

Agree0 Disagree0

16 Jan 2024 12:19:14
It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million, there's a ton of surplus here. Are there only 17 pitchers coming off anything better than a "pretty bad year"?

plus the Sox holding Cease could hurt his value, or it could help. He could very well be more valuable in July than he is now if he returns to '22 form, and there's no reason to suggest why he can't do that.

Luis Castillo is a good package comp here. Very similar age, production, control.

Agree0 Disagree3

16 Jan 2024 13:19:46
"It's a 1-2 SP for $8 million"

That's not true, though, because you're ALSO giving up multiple of your top prosepcts to land Dylan Cease. So you're losing a ton of value there.

In each of these trades, you have teams giving up 18-24 years of team control for two years of control on Cease. At even 1.0 WAR per season of control, that's 18 WAR for, what, 5-6 WAR over the next two?

You're asking teams to pay 3-4 times what Cease is likely to give you? Yeah, that's ludicrous. No team is going to pay that right now.

Agree4 Disagree0

17 Jan 2024 13:55:17
Yes, this is how trades work my man. lol.

The team is acquiring a current frontline starter at a crazy low salary in exchange for prospects who may turn out to produce 18 WAR, but may also never make the major leagues. Don't overthink this for the sake of arguing.

Agree0 Disagree2

17 Jan 2024 16:35:52
Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections.

That's not "overhinking this for the sake of arguing. " It's telling you the reality: Dylan Cease is not as valuable as you think he is.

Then again, you thought Rick Hahn was the greatest GM of all-time, and we all saw how that ended. Maybe your opinions aren't as great as you think they are.

Agree1 Disagree0

17 Jan 2024 21:34:31
"Right, and I'm telling you, matter of factly, no team is going to give up 18-24 years of control of their BEST PROSPECTS for a guy who is barely better than Marcus Stroman by way of projections. "

The Mariners very recently did this exact thing for Luis Castillo.

The Astros traded their top 2 prospects for a 40 year old Verlander.

etc, etc.


He's the 8th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last three seasons that still possesses additional upside on essentially a 2-year, $20 million contract. You're lost, per usual.

Agree0 Disagree1

18 Jan 2024 17:30:58
You're willfully ignoring a crucial detail: Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo were both better pitchers than Marcus Stroman, by a considerable margin.

Dylan Cease is likely not that much better.

No one, I repeat NO ONE, cares what Dylan Cease's 2022 fWAR was. It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him, between the extremely low BABIP and the low HR/ FB%. They all can see that Cease isn't going to match the production again.

Again, the White Sox could get a really solid return for Dylan Cease. There's a solid return that is far less than what you're suggesting for him.

But if Chris Getz doesn't get real with the pricetag, he's going to pull a Rick Hahn and completely bungle the window of opportunity he has before him.

Agree1 Disagree0

19 Jan 2024 04:35:23
"It's becoming evident that 2022 was a pure fluke for him"

His '21 fWAR was higher, yet I'm the one who's "willfully ignoring a crucial detail". Again, he's the 8th best pitcher in baseball over the LAST THREE SEASONS. It's not a fluke.

Cease has made 97 start over the last three seasons and has put up a 12.6 fWAR. He will pitch 2024 at 28 years old.

In the 97 starts before Castillo was traded, he put up a 12.9 fWAR and he was traded at 29 years old. The return should be almost identical.

Those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Nate.

Agree0 Disagree2

20 Jan 2024 13:51:32
I don't know what part of "his 2022 stats don't matter" made you not only ignore that part, but you went FURTHER BACK in your assessment.

Teams absolutely will not care what Dylan Cease did in 2021, either. I seriously don't know why that's so hard for you.

He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher who was in the 32nd percentile in HardHit% and 23rd in EV. His chase rate went down. His velocity went down. The HardHit% and avg. EV went UP.

Things aren't trending the right way, and thus, we get a pretty lousy projection for him.

Could he buck that trend? Of course he could. But no team is going to give up the premium to bet against that trend.

As far as "fluke" goes, go look at his Statcast metrics. 2023 was directly in line with every other season he's had. 2022 was a fluke and, again, the projections pretty much seem to reflect this.

2021 was a higher fWAR because his K-rate was a full 1.18 K/ 9 higher and his walk-rate was lower. His K/ BB% was 2.4% better in 2021.

It's almost like, and hear me out, the trends have continued to get worse! Man, those damn facts always seem to bitecha', Geronimo.

Agree1 Disagree0

21 Jan 2024 15:47:01
I'm not denying that his '23 peripherals were worse, but calling a 4.4 WAR season a "fluke" when it was bookended by a 4.5-win season and a 3.7-win season is kinda funny. You're just talking.

His Statcast metrics fell off the table in '23, and yet he still put up a 3.7-wins season and was a top-20 pitcher in baseball. What does that say about how good he is? If those bounce back even a little bit in 2024, he's a 4+-win pitcher once again.

And you think that teams only care about 2023 performance when evaluating players? 2022 and 2021 can just be completely thrown out? That's ridiculous.

Take the Castillo return (which is clearly a pretty great comp) and work from there. Yet there's no pressure to trade him now. Even you agreed with that.

Agree0 Disagree0

21 Jan 2024 23:29:09
Castillo wasn't coming off a significant downward trend in his Statcast metrics when he was traded, Cease is. Hence why your comparison isn't working here.

The Cease situation is awkward. There's no pressure to trade him now, but every day he plays in a White Sox uniform is a day closer to free agency for his acquiring team. A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off.

The White Sox also have to bank on Cease bucking the projections by a rather hefty margin.

Could he get there? Of course he *could* (I'm not bankning on it) . But this is all getting to where I've been: there's no one who is making that trade NOW. And likely not many who will make that trade later on.

And no, teams aren't going to care about what a pitcher did THREE SEASONS AGO. They might factor it in when running their projections, but that's about it. Dylan Cease's 2021 numbers are about as irrelevant to teams as Brandon Crawford's 2021 numbers.

Teams aren't getting 2021 or 2022 Dylan Cease. They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore.

Agree0 Disagree0

22 Jan 2024 01:01:31
"A half-season less of team control is a pretty significant drop off. "

Right, and this is why Castillo and Cease, despite some concerns with Cease's stuff in '23, are more equivalent than you think given Cease has another half-season of control.

"They are getting 2024 Dylan Cease, who has 361 IP more and a full 1.0 mph drop in velocity since, along with all the other concerning drops in Statcast metrics.

2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease likely doesn't exist anymore. "

Yeah, that one mph of lost velo is long gone for the 28 year old who has never been on the IL. He's cooked.

Agree0 Disagree1

22 Jan 2024 12:51:52
"He's cooked. "

Look, I know you're more interested in arguing in bad faith (it's all you know how to do), but this is a bad look, even for you.

Saying there's not confidence he'll get to those 2021-2022 numbers again doesn't mean he's cooked. There's still, as you have put it, a solid pitcher there.

But teams aren't gutting the upper part of their farm system for a "solid pitcher. " Those prices are asking teams to believe they can get the 2021/ 2022 Dylan Cease again. Is there a team that feels that way? Possibly, but I'm not banking on it.

That's been my point. You have to reflect how teams will likely feel about Cease GOING FORWARD. The projections don't even believe he'll return to those old seasons in 2024. I seriously doubt teams will believe, especially when it costs them the return you're saying it will.

It's just not going to happen.

The White Sox have an avenue to get a really, really good return for Dylan Cease. But if this is what they continue to insist on, they are going to watch his value continue to tank.

But then again, this is what we should expect from the White Sox, who think that hiring the guy their FIRED GM hired was a good idea.

Agree1 Disagree0

26 Jan 2024 20:23:01
ZiPs has Cease twice as valuable as Stroman. LOL!

Agree0 Disagree1

29 Jan 2024 13:13:18
LOL. Nothing more "Chi Sox" than finding the most optimistic projection and running with it because it matches your view!

The irony is that the variance in projections upholds the point I'm making, not you. That Cease has range of 0.7 WAR on his projections (a non-insignificant total, according to you) is a pretty large blight against his trade value, no?

The fact that teams don't know which Dylan Cease they are getting is precisely why I don't think any of them are making anything remotely close to the trade you've hinted at.

Agree0 Disagree0

14 Dec 2023 03:20:15
Rest of Yankees Offseason (All in on 2024)

Trades

Trade #1

Guardians get Oswald Peraza, Spencer Jones, Will Warren, Luis Gil, Ron Marinaccio, and Ian Hamilton

Yankees get Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase


Trade #2

Brewers get Gleyber Torres, Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, and Everson Pereira

Yankees get Corbin Burnes



Free Agency

Resign Wandy Peralta for 2 years and $12 million

Resign Isiah Kiner-Falefa for 1 year and $5 million

Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 10 years and $300 million

Sign Jordan Hicks for 4 years and $36 million


Roster

Lineup

2B LeMahieu
RF Soto
CF Judge
3B Ramirez
DH Stanton
1B Rizzo
LF Verdugo
C Wells
SS Volpe

Bench

C Trevino
IF/OF Cabrera
IF/OF Kiner-Falefa
OF Grisham

Rotation

Cole
Burnes
Rodon
Yamamoto
Cortes Jr.

Bullpen

Hicks
Effross
Gonzalez
Peralta
Loaisiga
Kahnle
Holmes
Clase

Believable3 Unbelievable3

14 Dec 2023 14:37:41
Guardians Trade: This is most certainly a brain on drugs.

Agree5 Disagree1

14 Dec 2023 17:41:11
At this point, I think you're trolling us. That Guardians/ Yankees trade is awful.

There's no possible way you think Cleveland would do that.

Agree4 Disagree2

07 Nov 2023 19:35:34
Mets Offseason

Trade Alonso

Sign Ohtani

Starting P
1. Sign Yamamoto
2. Trade for 1 of Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes

Relief P
1. Yuki Matsui
2. Yariel Rodríguez
3. One of Matt Moore / Craig Kimbrel / Robertson

Position Players
CF - Jung Hoo Lee


Lineup
CF - Jung Hoo Lee
RF - Marte
1b - McNeil
DH - Ohtani
SS - Lindor
LF - Nimmo
C - Alvarez
2b - Maurico
3b - Baty

Bench
Vinetos 1b/3b
Navarez C
DJ Stewart OF
Guillorme IF

Starters
Glasnow
Yamamoto
Senga
Quintana
Luccessi

Pen
Diaz CL
Kimbrel R
Yariel Rodríguez R
Brooks Raley L
Yuki Matsui L
Peterson LR
Megil LR

Believable3 Unbelievable3

08 Sep 2023 16:28:38
NY METS Offseason

Sign
1. Yamamoto
2. Jack Flaherty
3. Josh Hader
4. Matt Moore

Lineup
CF - Nimmo
SS - Lindor
LF - McNeil
1b - Alonso
RF - JD Stewart
DH - Marte
3b - Baty / Vientos
C - Alvarez
2b - Mauricio

Rotation
1. Senga
2. Yamamoto
3. Quintana
4. Flaherty
5. Peterson / Luccesi / Megill

Pen
CL - Diaz
CL - Hader
Ottovino
Raley
Moore
Reid-Foley

Wild Card Team???? Yes or No

Believable4 Unbelievable5

09 Sep 2023 15:31:27
1. That rotation is atrocious, possibly the worst in the majors, top to bottom.

2. I don't see why Josh Hader steps into a 8th Inning/ platoon closer role. He's highly unlikely to go where he's not going to be THE closer.

3. Alonso probably gets traded.

What a mess for the Mets.

Agree3 Disagree4

01 Aug 2023 19:06:49
ACTUAL TRADE:

Astros / Mets

Astros:
Justin Verlander


Mets:
Drew Gilbert OF
Ryan Clifford OF

I projected Verlander + cash for Clifford. This sellers market allowed Mets to land Clifford AND Gilbert! Great return for Mets. They are transforming that farm system.

Believable2 Unbelievable1

01 Aug 2023 12:59:21
Trade Deadline Moves

Giants get: OF Teoscar Hernandez

Mariners get: SS Diego Velasquez, RHP Spencer Miles

**This is definitely an overpay for San Francisco, but they might have to get a little desperate to infuse some offense really quick.**


Giants get: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Tigers get: RHP Mason Black, LHP Juan Sanchez, C Onil Perez

**Scott Harris would know the Giants system very well, as he was their GM for a few years. I have zero clue what he would target, but I could easily see a deal being worked out between these two teams.**

Believable1 Unbelievable2

02 Aug 2023 03:04:21
Very suprised Teoscar and Eduardo didn’t get moved. I know Eduardo wanted to stay out East to be close to family but those were two names I was sure would get dealt.

Agree2 Disagree1

02 Aug 2023 15:22:26
I'm guessing the Mariners still feel they can compete for a Wild Card spot.

I'm disappointed the Giants didn't do much, but I also get it. They have Estrada and Haniger coming back really soon, so they may not have had much roster space for the moves.

And the price for starting pitching was insane.

I can be okay with them standing pat, keeping the young talent and still going for it.

Agree2 Disagree1

03 Aug 2023 01:54:35
Yeah the market was crazy for pitchers. Sellers market forsure.

Mariners are always half in and half out. I’m not sure if they know what they want to do.

Giants are a weird team too but always find a way to win. They have talent in AAA that can come up to.

Agree1 Disagree0

31 Jul 2023 21:45:32
ACTUAL TRADE:

Mariners / Diamondbacks

Mariners:
Josh Rojas INF
Dominic Canzone OF
Ryan Bliss INF

Diamondbacks:
Paul Sewald CP

Great return for mariners. Sellers market forsure.

My projection was Sewald to CHC for Canario, BJ Murray Jr, and Michael Arias. Mariners go a little older but already MLB level bats with Rojas/ Canzone. Seems like Teoscar might be in the move!

Believable1 Unbelievable0

31 Jul 2023 20:25:31
ACTUAL TRADE:

Rays/ Guardians

Rays:
Aaron Civale P

Guardians:
Kyle Manzardo 1B

Hefty hefty price for Civale.

Believable3 Unbelievable1

01 Aug 2023 12:39:23
If there's a system that can handle paying the hefty price, it was Tampa Bay.

Civale was much more important.

Good trade for both teams, IMO.

Agree2 Disagree1

31 Jul 2023 01:09:57
TRADE:

Angels / Rockies

Angels:
Randal Grichuk OF
CJ Cron 1B

Rockies:
Jake Madden RHP
Mason Albright LHP

Angels going ALL in.

Believable3 Unbelievable2

30 Jul 2023 20:14:19
TRADES:

Cardinals / Rangers

Cardinals:
Tekah Roby P
John King P
Thomas Saggesse INF

Rangers:
Jordan Montgomery SP
Chris Stratton RP

Cardinals / Blue Jays

Cardinals:
Sem Robberse P
Adam Kloffenstein P

Blue Jays:
Jordan Hicks CP

Seems like light returns overall for the Cards but all players are rentals.

Believable1 Unbelievable3

30 Jul 2023 22:53:27
Moving from your own ideas to actual trades.

I don't blame ya, considering your Soto idea LMAOOO.

Agree3 Disagree4

30 Jul 2023 23:03:09
What are you talking about? I have posted every trade that has gone down so far. Again, this site is meant for conversations and ideas. I’m not sure how long you’ve been here it used to be very fun and active. Relax on the toxicity and let’s move forward.

Agree2 Disagree4

30 Jul 2023 18:09:22
Mariners / Cubs

Mariners:
Alexander Candelario OF
BJ Murray Jr INF
Michael Arias RHP

Cubs:
Paul Sewald CO.

Believable3 Unbelievable6

30 Jul 2023 15:56:46
Blue Jays - Angels Blockbuster Trade

Blue Jays trade to Angels

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Santiago Espinal
Cavin Biggio

Angels trade to Blue Jays

Shohei Ohtani

Believable2 Unbelievable1

30 Jul 2023 19:26:17
Vlad is a really big price to pay if Ohtani isn’t signing an extension upon the two teams agreeing.

Agree1 Disagree0

30 Jul 2023 03:24:16
Astros / Mets

Astros:
Justin Verlander RHP
25 million

Mets:
Ryan Clifford 1B/ OF

Mets look to buy another ascending prospect.

Believable1 Unbelievable3

30 Jul 2023 03:22:00
Rangers / Mets

Rangers:
Max scherzer RHP
36.5 Million

Mets:
Luisangel Acuna INF/ CF

Seems like a hefty price for Rangers. Rangers going all in and Cohen buys a quickly ascending prospect.

Believable2 Unbelievable1

29 Jul 2023 05:19:48
Yankees / Padres

Yankees:
Juan Soto OF
Nick Martinez RP

Padres:
Everson Pereira OF
Oswald Peraza INF
Drew Thorpe RHP
Chase Hampton RHP.

Believable2 Unbelievable4

29 Jul 2023 22:04:40
Good lord this is hilariously bad. I can't even express how quickly the Padres would say no to this.

Agree5 Disagree3

30 Jul 2023 03:19:43
Thorpe and Hampton are sky rocketing up rankings boards. Pereira is having an unbelievable year. Peraza was a top 50 prospect before the Yankees inept management.


With that being said, would make more sense for Padres to just resign him. But if they don’t/ can’t….

Agree1 Disagree3

30 Jul 2023 03:28:48
“I don’t think this offer from the Yankees would be enough to get Soto from the Padres. Yankees would have to include (names) and add (players) to make it closer”.

You see how this site can be used to have a constructive conversation and give actual valuable input. That’s the point of this site. You should try that and we may see some more people actually post.

Agree4 Disagree3


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