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17 Nov 2018 15:32:31
Yankees Offseason

Trades

Trade #1

Indians get Sonny Gray, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Luke Voit, Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder

Yankees get Corey Kluber


Trade #2

Diamondbacks get Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Montgomery, Greg Bird, Austin Romine, Estevan Florial, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Luis Medina

Yankees get Paul Goldschmidt and Zach Greinke


Free Agency

Let J.A. Happ, Andrew McCutchen, Lance Lynn, and Adeiny Hechavarria walk.

Resign Zach Britton for 3 years and $42 million

Resign David Robertson for 2 years and $20 million

Resign Neil Walker for 1 year and $5 million

Sign Bryce Harper for 10 years and $350 million

Sign Patrick Corbin for 5 years and $100 million

Sign Andrew Miller for 2 years and $26 million

Sign Brian McCann for 1 year and $5 million


Roster

Lineup

CF Hicks
RF Judge
1B Goldschmidt
LF Harper
DH Stanton
C Sanchez
SS Gregorius
3B Andujar
2B Torres

Bench

C McCann
IF Walker
IF Torreyes
OF Gardner

Rotation

Kluber
Greinke
Severino
Corbin
Tanaka

Bullpen

Sabathia
Green
Robertson
Miller
Betances
Britton
Chapman

Believable0 Unbelievable3

17 Nov 2018 15:53:12
My goodness you truly are clueless. The only thing I could see as a start for Kluber is Sheffield, after that none of what you suggested would be in that package. The trade with the Diamondbacks won't happen. Yankees aren't interested in either player. Harper won't happen, Britton will likely not be back, Robertson has some heat over playoff shares so I don't think he will be back. Did you forget Gregorious will be out at least half the season with TJ surgery?

Agree2 Disagree0

17 Nov 2018 16:43:29
I don’t see why this is so bad. The Indians have said they are looking to reshuffle not rebuild. They need to get rid of some salary because of market constraints. They can still win that division with ease. That entire package is built around players that are young, cheap, controllable, and ready to help them win now. That is more beneficial to them than players with slightly higher ceilings in Class A ball.

To just simply say the Goldschmidt won’t happen is lazy. The Yankees have been linked to him all offseason. The Diamondbacks are losing a lot of key players this year and are likely rebuilding. He is going into his walk year so they can’t expect a huge haul and I have them taking back Greinke and his massive deal with them taking back Ellsbury who is owed far less money and for one less year.

As for Harper, I have them getting rid of Ellsbury and Frazier which leaves them with Gardner, Hicks, and Judge in the outfield with Stanton as the primary DH. Gardner is not an everyday player at this stage of his career and is much more suited to be a soft hitting, defense first fourth outfielder that provides some speed and leadership. That leaves left field open for Harper. I think he is a better fit than Machado because he is a lefty to balance out a righty heavy lineup. Just because you’ve heard the Yankees aren’t in on Harper doesn’t mean they aren’t. It just means Cashman rarely tips his hand.

Lastly, it has been reported that the Yankees have interest in bringing Britton back and he has interest in returning even if it means not being the closer. Same with Robertson and the playoff shares issue is really overblown. I did not forget that Didi is having Tommy John surgery. The roster listed above is when they are at full strength not opening day.

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17 Nov 2018 17:33:27
Trade 1: Why would the Indians want Luke Voit? They have Encarnacion and Alonso. There's no reason to take on Voit. Also, that's a lot of quantity for the Yankees (You have twelve rostered players being moved for three coming back) .

Trade 2: Greinke's remaining contract minus Ellsbury's makes Greinke about $19M a year. Why would the Diamondbacks even consider giving another team that kind of value?

And if I'm Arizona, I'm not taking 6 guys I have to give a 40-man roster spot to. After Rule 5 protections and the two spots I'm giving away (Greinke and Goldschmidt), I don't even have space on the 40-man roster for those guys.

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18 Nov 2018 15:54:31
The fact you don't see that is bad proves that you are clueless. A good trade for Kluber would be Sheffield or FLorial, possibly both, Frazier, and one or two others. Next, yes there has been chatter about the yankees and Goldschmidt, but they are interested. read the second post down. goo.gl/GS1w4x

Yes, in your scenario it is possible for them to get Harper, but I personally don't think they will. They could end up signing Pollack or another outfielder. I also don't think the playoff shares thing is overblown otherwise it would not have been made a story. Plenty of teams need closers and I believe both Robertson and Britton will be offered more money by other teams to close.

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16 Nov 2018 18:13:35
Yankees get: Carlos Carrasco
Indians get: Chance Adams, Domingo German, Erik Swanson, Clint Frazier


Braves get: Nicholas Castellanos
Tigers get: Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Cristian Pache, Max Fried


Red Sox get: Shane Greene
Tigers get: Blake Swihart, Chandler Shepherd, Kutter Crawford


Astros get: James Paxton
Mariners get: Corbin Martin, Yordan Alvarez, Dean Deetz, Joe Perez


A's get: Robbie Ray
D-backs get: Kyler Murray, James Kaprielian, Jesus Luzardo


Brewers get: Sonny Gray
Yankees get: Adrian Houser, Eduardo Garcia, PTBNL


Astros get: JT Realmuto
Marlins get: Seth Beer, Jairo Solis, Freudis Nova, Christian Javier, Max Stassi

Believable1 Unbelievable3

16 Nov 2018 22:39:42
That'd be a hard pass from Cleveland on the Carrasco deal.

Agree2 Disagree0

17 Nov 2018 15:20:52
That'd also be a hard pass from Atlanta on the Castellanos deal. He's not worth Mike Soroka, let alone three other very good pieces.

Agree2 Disagree1

16 Nov 2018 08:11:01
Here is an idea:

Mariners get Paul DeJong
Cardinals get Dee Gordon, Alex Colome


Mariners get a power-hitting SS and Cards get a speedy utility and an underrated bullpen asset.

Just a thought.

Believable0 Unbelievable5

16 Nov 2018 17:12:11
Not sure this makes sense as the Mariners already have an All-Star shortstop in Segura and the Cardinals do not have an in-house replacement at SS.

Agree0 Disagree1

16 Nov 2018 02:07:29
One trade and I'm addicted hahaha

I had another one in mind.

It involves a Cy Young candidate from the Indians. His name is not Corey Kluber. His name is Trevor Bauer.

The A's were without a doubt the surprise team of 2018. However, it will be hard to repeat the great run they had without Sean Manaea in their rotation. The A's have shown us that they can compete with a bunch of underrated stars, but Sean Manaea was one of the most important parts of their season. They are without him for 2019, so they need a replacement. Almost any 97-win team is a buyer that winter, at least on the trade market. They will have to give up a lot for Bauer. A 27-year-old all star with a WAR of 6.1, and an ERA of 2.21 doesn't come cheap, especially with 2 years of team control. The other thing to know is that Progressive Field, according to ESPN.com, is ranked the 4th most hitter-friendly park in the Majors. The Coliseum is ranked 28th. To sum this up: the A's will get a 27-year-old, right-handed, all-star flamethrower who put up a 6.1 WAR and a 2.21 ERA in the 4th-least pitcher friendly park in the majors, and will bring him to the 3rd-most pitcher-friendly park in the Majors which is the most pitcher-friendly park in the American League.


Everything we have heard (and seen) about the Indians has them selling (so far) this winter. We can't call the Luplow trade a buy. They have reportedly been in contact with a lot of teams regarding some of their stars. If they do go through with selling, they have several assets to deal. Their farm system is terrible. They need good, young, controllable talent for the long-term. They can't sustain their run for much longer anyway, and they'll come to regret it if they don't make the most of the opportunity and logical outcome to sell. Make no mistake, the White Sox are on the rise as the future of the AL Central.


To show how good Bauer is, let's compare his season to Jacob deGrom's:

11.34 K/9(Bauer) vs 11.16 K/9 (Degrom)
2.21 ERA vs 1.70. We'll move Bauer's ERA down 10% because the AL has the DH. 1.99 vs 1.70. Another 10% because deGrom pitches in Citi Field (most pitcher-friendly) and Bauer pitches in Progressive Field (4th-least pitcher-friendly).

1.80 ERA (Bauer) vs 1.70 ERA (deGrom)

DeGrom on average got 20 outs per start, Bauer on average got 19 outs per start. If Bauer had pitched a full season (he missed 6 starts), let's say he had the same amount of starts as deGrom (32). We will re-adjust Bauer's stats using the ballpark factor. We'll also give him 2 more wins and 1 more loss assuming he had 32 starts and kept going at the same rate.

Bauer - 32 GS, 14-7, 1.80 ERA, 273K, 202.2 IP 7.1 WAR --> (times by 1.18 because he missed a little bit of time.)
deGrom - 32 GS, 10-9 1.70 ERA, 268K, 217 IP 8.8 WAR



Now we can see how truly unbelievable and underrated Bauer's season was. So let's set the price incredibly high.


Without further ado:

A's get: Trevor Bauer,
Indians get: Jesus Luzardo, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson

I expect this is the VERY LEAST the Indians will CONSIDER for Bauer.

Believable3 Unbelievable5

16 Nov 2018 05:06:07
If the A's dangle Luzardo's name, absolutely, I could see this.

The problem is, I don't think they'll include Olson. They like that guy way too much, and probably for good reason.

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16 Nov 2018 17:13:20
Agreed, that's a high price. You have to remember that Bauer only has 2 years remaining before FA.

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15 Nov 2018 22:49:01
Hi Guys,

I'm new on here. I'm a baseball nut, and I love the offseason buzz just as much as the regular season.

I had a thought on the Mike Trout scenario. Could he go to the Braves for an absolute haul? I'm talking a ridiculous blockbusterous deal.

I feel like it's a win-win for both teams. The Braves won the NL East in 2018, but they're going to need to bolster their squad in a serious way because the Phillies are going all in. The Braves need an OF now that Markakis is gone as well.

The Angels are unlikely to compete and need good young prospects. This could be their opportunity to cash in and stop wasting Trout's prime.

Trout's fangraphs WAR has been over 8 every single year of his career except 2017 when it was 6.9. 6.9 is ridiculous anyway, but he did it in 114 games! His fangraphs WAR projections for next year is a ridiculous 9.3. His AVG/HR/RBI projections are 299, 39 HR, 116 RBI. That could only go up with a better lineup to in front of and behind, as well as hitting in SunTrust Park, ranked 7th according to ESPN.com as a hitters park, compared to Angel Stadium, ranked 19th.

I added in a Shortstop-for-Shortstop deal just to add in a kicker for both teams.

This is how the deal would look:

Braves get: Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons
Angels get: Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Dansby Swanson

Believable7 Unbelievable5

15 Nov 2018 23:50:27
If there were a Trout trade, I guess this would move the needle. I think the Angels would more talent, in some form.

Also, I don't think the Angels would consider a Simmons for Swanson swap. Simmons has been worth 10 wins over the past two seasons. He continues to be one of the best defensive SS in the league, and has even shown he can hit in the past few years. He's only 29, and his 28M remaining is an absolute steal.

Compare that to Swanson, who is younger, sure, but hasn't been remotely close to that good, and probably doesn't ever project to be that good.

I think the Braves would need to give up a lot just to get Simmons, let alone Trout.

Agree3 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 23:53:23
All in all, though, you put a lot of thought into this. Good legwork on the stats.

Agree3 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 19:36:20
Phillies Offseason

Sign
RF Bryce Harper 10 years $375 million

SP Patrick Corbin 5 years $130 million

Trade

PHI- Jean Segura
SEA- JP Crawford & Adonis Medina

PHI- Joshua Lowe & Austin Franklin
TB- Carlos Santana


C- Jorge Alfaro
1B- Justin Bour
2B- Cesar Hernandez
3B- Maikel Franco
SS- Jean Segura
LF- Rhys Hoskins
CF- Obdubel Herrera
RF- Bryce Harper

SP- Aaron Nola
SP- Patrick Corbin
SP- Jake Arrieta
SP- Nick Pivetta
SP- Vince Velasquez

Believable0 Unbelievable5

15 Nov 2018 21:39:25
They are trying to trade Santana so they can move Hoskins back to 1B. And they also placed Bour on waivers. So Hoskins at 1B and Williams at LF?

Agree2 Disagree3

14 Nov 2018 23:11:30
Could the Red Sox make these moves in the offseason?

Send Eduardo Rodriguez to Washington for Anthony Rendon? (Note 1)

Send Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, Jackie Bradley Jr, and Rafael Devers to Miami for JT Realmuto and Starlin Castro? (Note 2)

Sign Kelvin Herrera 2/12?

Re-sign Craig Kimbrel 4/80?

Sign Dallas Keuchel 5/115?

Sign Anibal Sanchez 2/16

How would this roster do?

Lineup:
1. Benintendi LF
2. Betts CF
3. Martinez DH
4. Rendon 3B
5. Realmuto C
6. Castro 2B
7. Moreland 1B
8. Bogaerts SS
9. Holt RF

Bench:
1. Nunez IF
2. Pedroia 2B (if healthy)
3. Lin UT
4. Vasquez C

Rotation:
1. Sale
2. Keuchel
3. Price
4. Sanchez
5. Porcello

Bullpen:
1. Brasier RP
2. Hembree RP
3. Barnes RP
4. Poyner RP
5. Workman SU
6. Herrera SU
7. Kimbrel CL

Note 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez is a valuable LHP who has 3 more years of team control, the same amount as Max Scherzer. This one works well for both teams. The Nationals need another arm if they are truly looking to go deep into October in 2019, though I based this on the assumption they will sell. The Nationals also have Carter Kieboom who is nearly big-league ready, and could try to move him to 3rd.

The Red Sox need an upgrade at 3rd from Devers, and Anthony Rendon could be what the Red Sox are looking for. Boston might have to give up more though. Not sure. Rendon is a FA after next year.

Note 2 - The Marlins won't compete for at least 2 more years. But all of the players they get have at least 3 more years of team control. They get 4 good young players, and in the event they do compete in 2021 and beyond, it makes pieces like Lewis Brinson trade chips.

The Red Sox get their much needed catching upgrade, and Brock Holt as a superutility moves to RF to replace Bradley as he is better than JD defensively. Castro fills Holt's spot at second.

Quick note - There are trades involving the Red Sox on other sheets. I may or may not apply it to each of the teams I involve on these hypothetical offseasons.

Any thoughts? Also I realize these trades don't happen in a vacuum. It's all hypothetical.

Believable2 Unbelievable9

15 Nov 2018 01:46:00
the first trade isn't good for either team, I think more on both sides need to be added. the second one is terrible for the Red Sox. Herrera will probably sign for more money. Kuechel doesn't fit any where on the Red Sox. I could see Kimbrel coming back. Overall the team you listed is not as good as this years team.

Agree2 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 03:58:26
Rendon has been worth 6+ WAR in each of his past two seasons (17 over his last three seasons) .

It's going to take a hell of a lot more to acquire him. A return I'm not sure the Red Sox even have.

Agree3 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 04:21:59
Consider this:

Over the past three seasons, only one third baseman has put up a higher WAR than Rendon (17.3): Jose Ramirez (19.2). He's been better than Bryant (16.9), Arenado (16.4), and even Manny Machado (15.1). Over the past two seasons, the gap between Rendon and the #3 3B gets even wider (13.0 vs. Bryant's 11.3).

He's a pretty safe bet to be worth 5 wins, and put up a 130 wRC+, at the very least.

If the Red Sox offered that, it wouldn't get hung up on. Mike Rizzo would have to spend 20 minutes making sure it's not a prank call. That's so laughably terrible.

Agree3 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 05:31:59
BATMAN! :

1. Rendon-for-Rodriguez swap makes both teams better and fills each other's needs.

2. JT Realmuto AND Starlin Castro? That's great come on man. Even for that price. Realmuto has 2 years of team control as does Castro. We know about Chavis' PED use, Devers hasn't worked out for Boston, Travis is a good piece, and JBJ is good, but having a good catcher instead of Sandy Leon who hit 211 with a war of -0.5 or Christian Vazquez who hit 207 with a WAR of -0.8! They literally took a win away! Come on man!

3. Hererra won't sign for much more. Teams will target Britton, Kimbrel, Miller or even Cody Allen well ahead of Herrera.

4. So can I.

5. And um. HOW IS THIS WORSE THAN LAST YEAR?

Agree0 Disagree4

15 Nov 2018 07:12:09
The Nationals are not better off with E-Rod instead of Rendon.

They could literally sign any of a half dozen pitchers, or trade for someone without including him.

Heck, the Nats could land Rodriguez without Rendon, Soto, or Robles.

Agree3 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 10:52:56
thestatbook,

Rendon has put up a WAR of 14.1 over the last 3 years, and it was only 4.2 in 2018. Get your facts right before you tell them.

Anthony Rendon Profile

Rodriguez put up a WAR of 3.0 in just 23 starts - a little bit more than two-thirds of how many starts a pitcher has each year. The Nationals have more room for him on their staff. So for argument's sake let's say a pitcher has 33 starts a year. A 3.0 WAR over 23 starts puts him on pace for a 4.3 WAR over the course of 33 starts. He is another arm the Nationals need. Not to mention he is nearly 10 million dollars cheaper than Rendon. The Red Sox sign Keuchel and Anibal Sanchez making Rodriguez tradeable.

If the Nationals do trade Rendon but plan to contend again in 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez could be their guy. Not to mention his value will go DOWN from here as well.

Agree0 Disagree4

15 Nov 2018 13:29:57
Just noticed that you have them signing Anibal Sanchez, I think he proved he needs to stay in the National League. He was quite terrible for the Tigers his entire tenure there. You are still a fool for thinking Herrera will only sign for 6 million a year, he's one of the better relief pitchers and will get more. It just doesn't seem like your listed team will be any better than this year's team. For the Rodriguez/ Rendon sway, its rare there is a one for one trade, and I would think both sides would want more than one player, especially the Nationals for Rendon.

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15 Nov 2018 15:51:05
I use Fangraphs WAR. There’s a difference there. So my facts are correct.

You also have no idea how WAR is calculated. It’s not a counting stat, so tallying a “rate” doesn’t work that way. The point is, one year of Rendon is significantly more valuable than 3-4 of E-Rod.

I don’t know why you think of these silly, extremely unlikely (that’s putting it very generously) trades: Acuna, Berrios, Scherzer, Benintendi.

It’s not even that they are unlikely. They aren’t good. And you acting like you should do these for every team is hilarious. I mean, do what you want if it makes you happy. But these trades are terrible and ridiculous.

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15 Nov 2018 19:33:12
hey thestatbook, i feel like flappybird is someone who use to be on here all the time. the terrible posts seem familiar and his defense for these also seems familiar, don't you think?

Agree4 Disagree0

15 Nov 2018 20:29:19
I agree. I’ve been trying to figure out who, though.

These are absolutely terrible.

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15 Nov 2018 20:45:59
I was going to say crazysull, but sull is a Red Sox fan and this guy has stated he is a Yankees fan.

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15 Nov 2018 22:28:07
"You also have no idea how WAR is calculated. It’s not a counting stat, so tallying a “rate” doesn’t work that way. "

You just love bulling people on here, don't you?

WAR is a counting stat, in a sense. WAR is the aggregate of rate based statistics measured over time. The more IP or PA in which you accrue positive rates, the higher your corresponding WAR will be. And yes, you can prorate WAR, assuming the base rates remain constant.

Maybe explain this to other posters instead of trying to insult them. Just a thought.

Agree1 Disagree8

15 Nov 2018 23:41:55
No, it's not a counting stat. Literally no sabermetrics guys consider it one. It's a "rate" because of win concentration and because of run environments. It's also a rate because it's not like 1 game = x, 2 games = x, etc. Games only help because it helps them accrue stats. Those same games also allows them to lose value (more on that in a few) .

In order to mete it out on a per start/ game basis requires not just the player to continue playing the same way, at the same rate, with no deviation, but it requires the entire LEAGUE to do so. The chances of the entire run environment to remain constant is so small, you may as well call it impossible.

Besides, it's manipulative. The argument assumes that 'if Rodriguez did "X", then his WAR would be "Y. "'

The problem is: His WAR is "Y" because he failed to do "X". What is stoping teams like the Giants from saying, "You should buy on Steven Duggar because, had he played 162 games, he was worth almost 3 wins! "? It's exceptionally manipulative.

It's also manipulative because it assumes there would be no deviation in any of those "phantom" games. He's only going to be very good in them. That's about as manipulative, speculative, and wrong as it gets.

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16 Nov 2018 02:10:36
I will put out the disclaimer I'm a Red Sox fan.

E-Rod does not get you Rendon. If it does, I'm all for it though. But it won't.

I wouldn't move all of that for Realmuto. The Sox have three capable catchers on the roster, if not any stars. I don't understand why I keep seeing people all over the internet saying that Devers "hasn't worked out for Boston. " The kid just turned 22 last month! He's nowhere close to the player he will become. You probably would have jettisoned Xander in his second year too.

I'm a JBJ fan, and I think his defense in center field is almost as important to the performance of that pitching staff the last few years as anyone on the roster, but if they can pull something big back in a trade coming off that playoff performance, they have to at least listen. This isn't that move though.

If Holt is your everyday starter in RF, you aren't as good as this season. He is very valuable as a supersub, not as much as an every day starter.

Herrera and Kimbrel I'm good with even at the more expensive pricetag it will take to get Herrera than you've shown. The two starters. no thanks. Sanchez is done, especially in the AL, and Keuchel will get way too much considering his last couple of seasons have been very meh.

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16 Nov 2018 22:41:39
thestatbook;

"No, it's not a counting stat. Literally no sabermetrics guys consider it one. "

Rather than argue in circles, I decided to outsource this question to a couple baseball writers that I regularly correspond with via email.

Here is my question and the response from Eno Sarris, Baseball Analytics Writer for the Athletic, former Editor and Writer for Fangraphs, and Mike Podhorzer, Fangraphs writer and author of "Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance"

Me - “Could you settle an argument for me in reference to WAR? So would you characterize WAR as more of a counting stat or rate state? My position is that it is more of a counting stat, because it's the aggregate of rate stat effects accrued over time. Aside from weighing the sample size for a rate stat and whether or not it has stabilized, time is really not a variable. I know there are rate stats involved in calculating WAR, but I think it is more of the positive or negative effect those rate stats have had during any given amount of time. So you are essentially "counting" negative and positive attributions of rate stats in the context of runs and wins, right? While the peripheral conditions may change, that is just interdependent on the variable of time. Point being, it's tough to define haha. Is there a better way you would explain this? ”

Eno - "It's interesting. I think of it as a counting stat, but its one of the rare counting stats that can be negative going forward, which makes it act as a rate stat in a way. But the very basic component of WAR is runs, and runs is a counting stat. Because of the 'replacement' concept, it can be negative going forward, is all. Does that help? "


Mike - "It's most certainly a counting stat since WAR can rise or fall with more playing time. Even if the player performs exactly the same, more playing time will change it. That wouldn't be the case if it were a rate stat. There are no rate stats in WAR, you can't turn rate stats into a counting stat. You might think FIP is part of WAR, but it's really the counting stats used to calculate FIP. "

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17 Nov 2018 22:41:54
I would disagree with both on their stances of what constitutes WAR as a "counting stat". It's an aggregate of stats compared to a league average aggregate of stats, adjusted for positions, ballparks, run environments, etc, then weighed against "replacement" level.

If you want to simplify it to "it goes up and down, and thus it's a counting stat", sure. But we can hopefully all agree this is an extremely simplified answer with no explanation of the nuance involved (I can't blame Eno or Mike for giving you the simple answer, they have better things to do with their time) .

If you don't want to call it a "rate", that's also fine. Call it a value stat, then.

But to call it a counting stat, on the notion that it "goes up and down" is no better than calling an airplane a car because it has wheels.

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17 Nov 2018 22:45:25
And the "counting stat" vs. "rate stat" argument still doesn't settle the issue at hand:

It's utterly manipulative, and shows a massive misunderstanding of how WAR works when you think you can just say "had player A played X games, his WAR would be Y"

Because, again, it assumes that all variables remain constant: at the player level, the "replacement level", the run environment, and all other circumstances.

In fact, Mike even hinted at something (perhaps intentionally, who knows) that would make such an argument rather silly: the more games played, the more variations you can have. If anything, an estimation of WAR on MORE games would be a very, very difficult thing to project, and anyone suggesting it is blowing smoke.

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17 Nov 2018 23:12:12
The other problem with considering WAR a "counting stat" is that the folks who created it have even said there are areas in which it can't be differentiated.

"WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. "

What we would traditionally consider a "counting stat" (HR, RBI, SB, W, K, BB, etc), there's a distinguishable difference. The difference between a guy who hit 30 HR and one who hit 31 is 1 home run. That's a tangible, measurable thing. While it says nothing of value, it's distinguishable. We can compare the two and say one hitter was better in that department.

6.4 and 6.1 are not the same thing, I would imagine you agree. And the difference is 0.3. But if we can "distinguish", then what are we counting. What exactly constitutes "0.1" wins above replacement? How do we count that, and if it's countable, it should be distinguishable at the minute levels.

WAR is a value stat. It doesn't "count" anything tangible.

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14 Nov 2018 21:58:38
Yankees Offseason Review:

Yankees-Giants (Read Note #1)

Yankees trade:
- SP Sonny Gray
- SP Chance Adams
- SP Erik Swanson

Giants trade:
- 2B Joe Panik
- RP Hunter Strickland


Yankees-Cardinals (See Note #2)

Yankees trade:
- 3B Miguel Andujar
- 2B/SS Tyler Wade

Cardinals trade:
- SP Jack Flaherty
- RP Mike Mayers

Yankees-Marlins (See Note #3)

Yankees trade:
- SP/RP Luis Cessa

Marlins trade:
- Cash considerations


Note 1: It's been stated by Brian Cashman himself that Sonny Gray will be traded this offseason. There will be plenty of suitors for Gray, but I think the Giants make sense here. Buying low on Sonny Gray, without parting with any major prospects would be a plus. The Giants get a solid starting pitcher with some upside left and also acquire 2 young starting pitching prospects. The Yankees address their infield issue by acquiring Panik and ease the pain of losing Robertson in FA by acquiring Strickland.

Note 2: The Cardinals need an upgrade at 3rd, and with Gorman being far from contributing from the majors, the team is in need of a 3rd baseman. While not a good defender, Miguel Andujar's bat makes up for his lack of defense. The Yankees, meanwhile, acquire a young starting pitcher with tremendous upside in Jack Flaherty. Tyler Wade is in the deal because he offers defense and versatility, while also not being eligible for arbitration for a couple seasons. Mike Mayers is a solid bullpen piece for the Yankees as they add to their already elite bullpen.

Note 3: The Yankees get rid of Luis Cessa, who has no more minor league options. The Marlins acquire a young arm that needs a change of scenery. They can put Cessa in their rotation, or at the very least in their bullpen.


Yankees Offseason Signings:

3B/SS Manny Machado - 8 years, $295M (opt out clause after 3rd season)
SP Patrick Corbin - 5 years, $95M
1B Lucas Duda - 1 year Minor League Contract

Yankees Offseason Resigning:

RP Zach Britton - 4 years, $52M
SS/3B Adeiny Hechavarria - 1 year, $3.5M

Yankees Offseason Roster Cuts:

RP AJ Cole

Yankees Lineup:

C: Gary Sanchez
1B: Luke Voit
2B: Joe Panik
SS: Gleyber Torres
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Brett Gardner/Clint Frazier
CF: Aaron Hicks
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Giancarlo Stanton

Yankees Bench:

C: Austin Romine
SS/3B: Adeiny Hechavarria
OF: Clint Frazier/Brett Gardner

Yankees Rotation:

1. Luis Severino
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Jack Flaherty
4. Masahiro Tanaka
5. CC Sabathia

Yankees Bullpen:

Aroldis Chapman
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Zach Britton
Hunter Strickland
Mike Mayers
Stephen Tarpley
Tommy Kahnle

Believable1 Unbelievable8

15 Nov 2018 04:01:20
A few things to consider on Panik:

1. He's projected at half the cost of Gray. So the Giants are taking on twice the cost for a project piece.

2. Adding in three years of Strickland (coming off a season with an injury) is worth way, way more than Chance Adams. I've stated numerous times that I bet Adams is DFA'd in the next year or so. He's just not good, at all. I don't know why Zaidi would give up an extremely valuable asset for a horrible one.

Agree2 Disagree2

15 Nov 2018 07:14:19
And can we agree that Tyler Wade is nothing more than an add in. Once he reaches arbitration, he won’t be tendered a contract by anyone. He’s not good at baseball.

Agree3 Disagree1

13 Nov 2018 19:08:44
A couple trade ideas for y'all. Let's not nit-pick on the secondary pieces for these trades.

1) St. Louis gets: David Peralta. Arizona gets: C Andrew Knizner, LHP Luke Weaver, 2B Max Schrock.

St. Louis gets an OF coming off a huge season with several seasons of control. Arizona retools and gets a young catcher.

2) Boston gets: RHP Jose Leclerc. Texas gets: 3B Michael Chavis, RHP Tanner Houck, and 1B Sam Travis.

Boston gets perhaps the most underrated reliever in baseball. Texas gets several good young players.

3) NY Yankees get: James Paxton. Seattle gets: 3B Miguel Andujar, RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Michael King

New York gets their #2 starter. Seattle gets Andujar, who plays DH for them. (I'm about 90% sure New York lands Machado)

4) LA Dodgers get: Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland gets: Yasiel Puig, RHP Dustin May, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and LHP Alex Wood.

Dodgers get an elite arm. The return isn't "flashy", but it's very, very good for Cleveland.

5) Houston gets: JT Realmuto. Miami gets: RHP Forrest Whitley, OF/1B Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Rogelio Armenteros.

Houston takes advantage of the fact the NL East teams don't want to help a division foe. Miami gets a great return.

5) Brewers get: Joe Panik. Giants get: OF Domingo Santana.

Straight arbitration player swap. A lot of talk about the Brewers non-tendering Schoop. Which creates a need for 2B. Santana has nowhere to play, Giants can save money in the OF and find a replacement 2B elsewhere.

Believable2 Unbelievable6

13 Nov 2018 22:07:36
Trade 1 - Pretty good. I think that Arizona wants one of Nolan Gorman or Dakota Hudson. That's key not a nit-picker haha. Peralta was one of the best OF in the NL last year offensively so I think the return features at least one of those two.

Trade 2 - No matter how much Boston wants Jose Leclerc, Boston has to offer more than that. Someone on the big league roster with 2-3 years of control - like Brian Johnson. Boston gets their missing piece though.

Trade 3 - I can't see the Yankees trading Andujar no matter how desperate they are for pitching. And I don't think they want Machado. I think he lands in Philly. If the Yankees sign him, it's possible that they take on 2 of the 3 biggest contracts ever, making it very difficult to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Especially at those back-end years of each deal. I think they also want money to spend on Mike Trout after 2020.

Trade 4 - The Astros are actually a great potential landing spot for Realmuto, but I don't think they would include Yordan Alvarez. A 277, 21 HR, 74 RBI doesn't attract 2 top 100 prospects. Especially with just 2 years of control and Cole and Verlander being Free Agents after next year. Garrett Stubbs deserves a shot in the bigs as well. 310 in Triple A is incredibly respectable, he is one of the most underrated catching prospects in the game.

Trade 5 - I really like trade 5. All good.

Agree0 Disagree1

13 Nov 2018 22:10:23
By trade 5 I meant the Panik for Santana swap. I missed the Carrasco deal, I like that as well.

Agree0 Disagree0

13 Nov 2018 22:31:35
I think these are all pretty reasonable trades and I do agree with you that the Yankees are probably going to sign Machado. There has been a lot of connections and stuff on them. All the trades help each team with their needs. If the Marlins do trade Realmuto, they probably will, it is going to have be better than what they got for Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna.

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13 Nov 2018 23:35:04
I just don't see the Yankees outbidding teams like LA, Atlanta or Houston for elite pitching with what's remaining in the farm system.

They have 3 50+ FV prospects remaining (Sheffield, Florial, Abreu) . So unless they are willing to gut all they have left, and not be able to make another big trade later, Andujar just seems to be the right guy.

But if you want a trade of Sheffield, Florial, and Abreu for Paxton, I'd be okay with that.

Agree0 Disagree0

13 Nov 2018 23:36:56
Batman, I think the Realmuto trade is going to be fairly close to the Yelich deal, but it'll have to be better because of the weak market for catchers.

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14 Nov 2018 02:45:50
I agree with you statbook, it will be hard for them to outbid other teams. they still have a much better farm system than they did a few years ago, just most of their top talent is in the lower minors now.

Agree0 Disagree0

16 Nov 2018 12:35:33
OF Pederson instead of Puig.

Agree0 Disagree1

13 Nov 2018 15:40:08
TB: 2B Joey Wendle and RP Chih-Wei Hu

LAD: SP Ross Stripling

With the Dodgers facing some financial limitations and with a plethora of starting pitching options on their roster, they could prefer a cost-saving upgrade. Their starting options are Kershaw, Ryu, Hill, Stripling, Buehler, Urias, Wood, and Maeda, 5 of which are set to make 80 million alone.

Wendle and Stripling are both entering their age 29 seasons after breaking out this past year.

Under control for 5 more years, Wendle finished the year with a 148 wRC+ in the second half and 3.7 fWAR overall. Wendle would give the Dodgers a classic lead off hitter and the type of positional flexibility that the Dodgers appreciate just as much as the Rays.

With four years of control remaining, Stripling was able to finally have sustained success as a starter after spending most of his time in the bullpen and at AAA since breaking into the majors. In the second half, however, he dealt with some leg and back issues that forced the Dodgers to leave him off their postseason roster.

In a vacuum, I think the trade makes a ton of sense for both sides.

Believable3 Unbelievable6

16 Nov 2018 00:41:36
I like it as far as value. It appears to be a pretty even deal. I'm just not sure there's room for Wendle on the roster though. I guess they could try and use him in a Kike Hernandez type of role. Chih-Wei Hu is a good kick-in to replace Stripling. Even though the Dodgers could potentially have some difficult roster decisions, I like the value of the deal for both teams.

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