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16 Oct 2019 20:46:56
Padres trade Renfroe, Patino, Baez, Owen Miller, Ornelas

Red Sox trade Betts.

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17 Oct 2019 00:11:53
Take out Patino and sure, not going to shell out that kinda guy for a rental. maybe you can add luchessi.

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17 Oct 2019 00:32:58
I think this is a bit overpay, honestly. I think the closest comp I could find was Goldschmidt's trade last winter, but there are factors that make it more difficult:

1. Betts is younger, four years younger than Goldy was when he was traded.

2. But Betts is going to be more expensive. He's on track to make nearly $12-13 million more than Goldschmidt made in his walk year.

3. Last four years for Betts- 30 WAR. 2015-18 for Goldschmidt- 22.8 WAR

I think, in many ways, you could probably expect the Red Sox to get a Goldschmidt-type return for Betts, which at that point, I'd hold on to him and trade other players if I'm Boston.

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17 Oct 2019 14:47:21
I think the Padres could do something more like Lucchesi, Patino, and Josh Naylor for Betts.

At which point, I question if Boston would move him. But I think it'll be underwhelming for the return.

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14 Oct 2019 13:19:13
Yankees Offseason


Designate Jacoby Ellsbury for Assignment


Trade

Indians get Luke Voit, Estevan Florial, Jonathon Loaisiga, Thairo Estrada, and Jonathan Holder

Yankees get Corey Kluber


Free Agency

Let Brett Gardner Walk

Aroldis Chapman Opts in

Resign Didi Gregorius for 3 years and $45 million

Resign Dellin Betances for 1 year and $8 million (plus incentives)

Resign Austin Romine for 3 years and $15 million


Roster

Lineup

1B LeMahieu
RF Judge
2B Torres
LF Stanton
C Sanchez
DH Andujar
SS Gregorius
3B Urshela
CF Hicks

Bench

C Romine
1B Ford
IF Wade
OF Tauchman

Rotation

Kluber
Severino
Paxton
Tanaka
German

Bullpen

Happ (Swingman)
Green (Opener/Middle Reliever)
Kahnle (Middle Reliever)
Ottavino (Middle Reliever)
Betances (7th Inning Setup Man)
Britton (8th Inning Setup Man)
Chapman (Closer)

Believable0 Unbelievable4

14 Oct 2019 15:44:53
What is this, year 4 of suggesting the Yankees DFA Ellsbury?

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16 Oct 2019 02:27:50
That’s all you got to say? What else are they going to do with him? He hasn’t played in two years. And if you remember I used to suggest trades for him exchanging salary dumps but obviously that’s no longer an option so what else is there? He’ll never play a game for them again. That’s the least significant part of the post and the only part you commented on because you had to not pick something. What about the rest of it?

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16 Oct 2019 18:14:53
I think if the Yankees were going to DFA Ellsbury, they'd have done it by now.

You want the rest of it? I think the Indians will get more for Kluber, and most likely in the form of a younger, higher impact guy as opposed to your quantity-over-quality trade. Voit is 29, Holder is a run-of-the-mill reliever, Estrada is bench-depth, and Florial can't hit.

None of those guys, in any combination, are particularly attractive pieces for a guy like Kluber.

Andujar for Kluber would get talks moving. Or Deivi Garcia + Clint Frazier would probably do the trick.

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16 Oct 2019 18:20:03
I also chose to "nit-pick" the Ellsbury thing because it's the only part of this that was worth commenting on.

The rest is trite copy pasta from you, just with a few names changed. Give us something new, and something with some proof that you understand reality and maybe you'll get the benefit of someone objectively interacting with your posts.

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17 Oct 2019 00:15:40
Garcia and Florial gets it done, maybe Another throw in.

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09 Oct 2019 13:45:31
A little different for this site, but I thought I'd go with manager predictions. Look, no one knows who anyone will hire.



Angels- Joe Maddon. He won't fix a thing, but it'll look like they are trying.

Cubs- David Ross. I just can't help but think they'll make a horrible decision for a manager, thus, David Ross is my prediction.

Giants- Raul Ibanez. I wouldn't be shocked if they look internally (Meulens or Wotus), but I think Zaidi goes for something new. Ibanez would be an interesting fit.

Mets- Joe Girardi. The little brother syndrome is in full effect in Flushing Meadows. Nothing will change, but at least they got a good name, right?

Pirates- Hensley Meulens. For a team that has as much focus on international scouting (South Korea, South Africa, India, Lithuania, etc. ), Meulens would be an absolutely incredible candidate for their club.

Phillies (who ultimately fire Kapler) - Buck Showalter. I can't think of a more perfect candidate to lead a team with as much talent as Philadelphia. Get him a bullpen and move out of the way.

Royals- Mike Matheny. Because why not? They need someone to drag them along for a while. Matheny is Rick Renteria 2.0.

Believable1 Unbelievable1

09 Oct 2019 13:51:34
Forgot the Padres- Ron Washington. I'd imagine Preller would need to find someone who would actually enjoy working for him. Going with Washington (who was manager when Preller was in Texas) would probably work.

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09 Oct 2019 23:48:19
Wouldn’t mind wash but I hear he isn’t into any of the analytics so I throw him out. I hope it’s one of Maddon, Girardi, or Showalter. We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet.

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10 Oct 2019 05:07:45
I might have to consider adding a prediction for the Dodgers after this, which would certainly be Joe Maddon. And then this whole thing blows up.

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10 Oct 2019 13:08:03
For the Giants, Ibanez has stated he currently doesn't want to manage.

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10 Oct 2019 13:40:56
"We need experience and someone with his own style that won’t be a puppet. "

Also: I hope it's one of Maddon

Maddon is a GM's wet dream because he doesn't challenge the GM.

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15 Oct 2019 17:55:47
Angels- Joe Maddon
Cubs- Joe Girardi
Giants- Gabe Kapler
Mets- Carlos Beltran
Pirates- Derek Shelton
Phillies- Buck Showalter
Royals- Mike Matheny
Padres- Jayce Tingler.

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15 Oct 2019 23:21:54
Everything looks good I just hope the pads don’t get Tingler!

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07 Oct 2019 02:49:41
Tigers trade: LHP Matthew Boyd
Cardinals trade: OF Tyler O'Neill, 1B/OF Jose Martinez, 3B Nolan Gorman

Believable6 Unbelievable4

09 Oct 2019 03:27:35
The Cardinals system isn't very deep, and Gorman is the best they've got (I'd accept an argument for Dylan Carlson) .

I just can't see them giving up either of them at this point.

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09 Oct 2019 13:53:41
For what it's worth, I don't think it's a crazy ask for Boyd. And I think there'll be a team that overpays for him this winter, but I don't see the Cardinals being that team.

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09 Oct 2019 23:51:47
I can’t see why Boyd gets so much attention. Is it that he has so many years of club control or his high SO rate? Honestly he didn’t do anything that tells me you need to give up any top prospects for him. I could see a major league piece and a mid level prospect and that’s about it.

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10 Oct 2019 13:44:39
It's the years of control, plus his peripherals. His xFIP was quite a bit better than his ERA. He had a .307 BABIP against him, and most think that's going to come down quite a bit.

He's an extremely good pitcher and he improved in almost every area they wanted him to improve last year (huge spikes in K-rates, swing and miss rate, ground ball rate) . I'd look to the Tigers getting a pretty legit haul for him.

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05 Oct 2019 01:09:25
Padres receive: Kris Bryant

Cubs receive: Taylor Trammell OF (MLB #28 prospect), Luis Patino RHP (MLB #30 prospect), Adrian Morejon LHP (Padres #7 prospect)

Believable0 Unbelievable3

05 Oct 2019 04:06:31
Are you really a Cubs fan?

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05 Oct 2019 06:44:13
Sorry cubbies fan, you can’t get anything by “thestatbook” lol I’m sure he’ll tell you all about why that can’t happen and why they need to throw in tatis if they want Bryant.

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08 Oct 2019 03:43:08
Where I should I send the rent money, ryeguy?

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08 Oct 2019 03:59:27
And, ryeguy (sourdough is better, btw), I tend to look at what the cost is beyond the "fairness" or silly "surplus value" arguments people make on here.

If your team had a guy who is ranked 9th among hitters since 2016; who has won rookie of the year and MVP; and who helped bring a WS to Chicago, you probably wouldn't want to trade him for a handful of prospects, no matter how highly ranked they are.

You'd want young, controllable MLB talent.

It makes sense that you don't understand this; the Padres haven't had anyone to be excited about or play decent baseball in San Diego since this year (and even that's not going to sustain itself) . So you don't understand that guys have value based on bringing success to your team, but why would the Cubs trade Bryant for this?

He was a full win better than any player in San Diego this year (and should positively regress next season) . He's a generational talent and the Cubs won't trade him.

And look, I know the Padres won't trade Tatis. I'm not stupid. But they also won't acquire someone like Bryant or Lindor without giving him up. I can pretty much guarantee that. The Cubs and Indians have too much talent on their big league teams to waste it by trading superstars for project pieces.

Turn off The Show and come back to reality, please.

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08 Oct 2019 18:49:47
This would be a good trade for the Cubbies. Cubs desperately need a CFer and they need young, controllable pitching. Bryant and Boras are going to want much more than he is worth, especially with his injury history I wouldn’t do it. San Diego just signed Machado and I don’t want Bryant running around the OF too often so not sure how this makes sense for SD.

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08 Oct 2019 22:47:26
You're not sure that the Padres acquiring a guy who was objectively better than any player on their roster in 2019 for a handful of guys who are basically lotto tickets at this point is good for San Diego?

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08 Oct 2019 22:56:09
There is plenty of talent on the San Diego prospect list. Impact talent. not just tatis is what my point is. Just because you know tatis and have seen him play your all over him and saying how the padres would have to give him up in a trade. But wait till you see Patino and I’m sure you’ll be saying the same for him too. or Gore, or Abrams or urias etc. The padres could acquire ANYONE they want without giving up tatis in a trade. that's MY POINT.

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09 Oct 2019 00:20:12
I suppose you can shift Machado to short and put Tatis at 2nd. I really like Trammell (who could impact in 2020) and Patio is really polished for 19 year old. If I’m SD I don’t want to make this trade for 2 seasons of KB.

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09 Oct 2019 03:22:56
No, no they cannot. I didn't realize that the Padres' blatant incompetency is creeping into their fans' mindsets, but here we are.

The Padres won't be acquiring top 10 players in the majors for guys that are 2-3 years away from the majors. The Cubs and Indians want guys who are both good (so not Urias) and also can contribute positively right away (again, not Urias, or Trammell, or Patiño) .

If you refuse to accept a Tatis trade, fine, then give up Paddack and Gore. Otherwise, be okay with someone like Matt Boyd or Caleb Smith. And be ready to give up marquee talent even just for those guys.

I think you vastly under-estimate how tough it is to acquire premium talent via trades (there's a reason we rarely see guys like Lindor traded), and you vastly over-estimate the strength of the Padres' system.

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09 Oct 2019 23:45:19
GORE, PATINO, URIAS, and TRAMMELL will all be in he bigs this season, so that’s that.

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10 Oct 2019 13:46:38
Well, perhaps, but that's because the Padres have zero risk bringing them up. It's not like they will be competing any time soon. That team has more holes than a Jussie Smollett hoax.

They likely wouldn't be more than a September call up in Chicago or Cleveland. So there's that.

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13 Sep 2019 06:10:30
As a pads fan we need to establish some sort of consistency in the middle of the lineup from the left side of the plate so here goes and tell me what you guys think:

Pads receive: SS Francisco Lindor

Indians receive: SS/2B Luis Urias, SS CJ Abrams, and SP Adrian Morejon.

I know pads already have tatis at short but I know they can figure out where to play who whether it be putting lindor or tatis at 2b. They got to figure it out and make some moves because they aren't looking too promising for a 2020 contention that was promised to the fans.

Believable0 Unbelievable14

17 Sep 2019 16:34:54
I'm about 105% sure that the Indians would want Tatis if they are giving up Lindor.

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19 Sep 2019 17:45:55
You’re ridiculous there’s no way in heck they’d have to give up tatis, they’d be lucky to get that package, I was honestly going above what the padres would give. Lindor will be traded because they don’t want to pay, and won’t pay. So to get 3 guys in the top 50 would be a complete overpay.

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26 Sep 2019 03:23:39
Well, I tried to find the most ridiculous trade return it would take to get Lindor.

The Indians wouldn't trade him for anything short of verifiable superstars, all with 5+ years of control remaining, and probably 3 of them.

It's a ridiculous conversation I'm ashamed I'm even wasting my time on.

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26 Sep 2019 23:22:19
Well i will def remind you of this convo when he gets traded at the winter meetings for lesser than what I’ve proposed.

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30 Sep 2019 03:21:03
Okay, since you're doubling down with nonsense, let's answer this with some objectivity.

Lindor isn't even 26 yet. He's been worth 27 wins in his career. He's the cornerstone of the Indians' organization. He's 5th since 2016 in WAR. He also has two years of control remaining, and he'll be 27 when he walks into free agency. So he's still incredibly young.

It's already incredibly rare that a player of Lindor's status and talent is traded.

But's say he is, what would you think is a fair return for a guy like Lindor?

I'll tell you what is NOT a fair return: a post-prospect with over 300 career PAs and a wRC+ of 80. Urias isn't terrible, but the Indians likely want someone with significantly more upside than Urias for a guy who ranks as a top 10 hitter over the past 4 seasons.

So, who would it take?

Well, this was a tough one to gauge, because, again, we rarely see players like this traded. Chris Sale comes to mind, but he was a pitcher, so teams are far less willing to assume the risk.

However, with Sale, the #1 prospect, and a top pitching prospect.

With Lindor, his return would likely surpass that, as the risk is far less, and the deviance from his statistical norms is far less. So we have to consider a trade that is a grade above the Sale trade.

The Indians also wouldn't want to lose their window of competitiveness. Trading Lindor because they don't want to pay means they want someone who can contribute immediately. And someone who carries very little risk. That won't be Urias, who can't hit his way of a paper bag in the majors. It's not Trammell, and the Padres don't have anyone else at the top of their list that's MLB ready.

Tatis would certainly have to be the guy. And even then, it won't be Tatis on his own. I'd imagine something like Tatis, Hudson Potts, and Luis Patino.

That's absurd, but you're asking for a generational talent. It's going to cost something absolutely absurd.

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01 Oct 2019 04:07:14
Ok. so Lindor has 2 years of control left. He made 10.8 mil this year and is expected to double to about 20 mil in 2020 and who knows what in 2021 (maybe 25mil) my point here is that ownership DOES NOT want to pay him that much and has said that they won’t . so he will be traded that’s almost a certainty.

So let’s move on to Chris Sale since you brought him up. When Sale was traded he had 3 YEARS LEFT of club options worth a TOTAL of 38 mil. Once again when Boston acquired him he had 3yr/ 38 mil. For a top flight ace at the time that’s absolutely a bargain. So yes, Boston would have to give an arm and a leg. Not for Lindor who’s owed roughly 45 mil for only 2 years for a team who doesn’t want to pay him that.

Just saying.

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01 Oct 2019 13:40:01
2 years of Lindor, a top 10 hitter, is far less of a risk for a team than 3 of a pitcher.

You're talking something equivalent, if not more, just based on the premium position (SS), the fact that there's far less risk, and the age. Sale was 2 years older than Lindor when he was traded.

The Indians won't be giving away Lindor, and to use a refrain I commonly use on this site, if the cost for Lindor is what you're saying, I guarantee you, all other 29 teams would be interested and willing to pay that price.

Needless to say, the Padres aren't aquiring Lindor without including Tatis. Move along now.

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01 Oct 2019 17:20:50
My question to you is why in the world would the padres give up tatis, a player that might already be better than Lindor for Lindor lol. makes no sense. My idea was hey if you can add to your already good infield why not.

So if the Yankees wanted Lindor which I bet you they’re going to be interested, you’re going to sit there and tell me they’d have to give Torres for him!? Yankees would laugh in their faces. Be realistic bro.

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01 Oct 2019 18:01:55
The Padres obviously won't give up Tatis.

And no, in literally no world is Tatis currently better than Lindor. Don't even try to justify it, because I will destroy you in an argument. At this point, you're being a homer, and you're embarrassing yourself.

The last time a team traded away a guy who was top 10 in WAR over a 4 year span, again, was Chris Sale. And that trade included the #1 prospect in baseball, as well as a few other really good pieces (Kopech, for one) .

Neither the Padres nor the Yankees have a guy like Moncada in their farm right now. Those guys are both on their MLB rosters (Tatis and Torres) . The Indians aren't going to take a high-risk guy who has struggled in a pretty high amount of PA's (Urias) for Lindor.

So who would you think they'd realistically take? And again, Lindor is going to command MORE than Sale, due to position, risk factor, and age.

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01 Oct 2019 18:12:09
Or, let me put it this way, let's say in a few years, Fernando Tatis is as good or better than Lindor. For the purposes of this thought experiment, let's say he's exactly the same: 27.0 WAR, similar hitting stats, all that jazz. He's also two years away from free agency, and roughly the same age (Tatis is a full year younger than Lindor) .

If a team came and offered a package led by the following stat line, would you say yes?

.221/ .318/ .331, 6 HR, 1 SB, 79 wRC+ with 302 plate appearances (about a half a season)?

Keep in mind, he's the BEST player you're getting in return for your verifiable super star player. Would you say yes?

Of course you don't. There's zero reason to, and if that's the best you were offered for Tatis, you'd decide you're better off holding on to him and paying him.

You don't think that if Lindor were made available, that the Dodgers wouldn't offer Gavin Lux + Dustin May for him? Most MLB teams would gladly trade young stars from their MLB roster for him.

All of this is to day: your proposal is among the silliest I've ever seen on here. It's not even remotely close to what the Indians would ask or get for him and you should probably be more worried about Tatis' regression next season than this fairytale proposal.

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02 Oct 2019 00:49:13
I think your out of you’re mind if you’re going to say that the dodgers would give up May and lux for Lindor. It’s alright if you don’t like urias that’s all good but he doesn’t have 300 abs he has 215 this year and a handful last year. You’re acting as if he’s had a full year in the bigs. ( A full year is 630 at bats buddy) and saying that Cj abrams is nothing along with Morejon is quite foolish. Get off your high horse and stop acting like you know what you’re talking about. Like I said You’ll hear from me in couple months when he’s traded for less.

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02 Oct 2019 16:13:20
Honest question: do you know how to read?

I said 300 plate appearances in his career. He has 302. I even said earlier that it equated to a half a season. Seriously, it's all right there.

And also, yes, the Dodgers would probably trade Lux and May for a guy who has literally been A TOP 5 PLAYER PER WAR! We're not talking about them trading for Will Myers here. This is a guy that, since 2016, the following players have been better than him: Trout, Betts, Rendon, Yelich. That's it. He'd be the most sought after trade candidate we've seen in years.

And you think he can be had for some scraps from your farm system? I promise you, the trade (it won't happen, but whatever) will be one of the biggest and involve some names that would make fans cringe to hear included.

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02 Oct 2019 16:48:22
Also, if 630 at bats is a full season, then only 9 players in baseball played a full season. A full-season is closer to about 500-550 at this rate, especially with all the guys in baseball looking to get at-bats.

None of this actually matters, except when you try to condescend someone, you should probably make sure you have accurate information.

Urias has career 302 plate appearances. He has 263 career ABs. They literally sent him down to the minors because he wasn't performing all that well. He came back in the second half and played okay (90 wRC+), but certainly not to the level of wowing anyone.

He's a post-hype prospect who never lived up to his prospect ranking. He's a 55 FV player, which gets people excited until you see that his skills haven't manifested themselves in any form. That 50-grade speed has resulted in 1 stolen base. His 50-grade hit tool led him to a .223 BA. His BABIP in the majors is far more telling, especially when you compare it to that of his minors. Since you're a Padres fan, I'll explain using smaller words: he's the typical player who plays really well in the minor-leagues, but not very well in the majors.

There will still be a lot of reports about how good Urias is, so if you want to try and find those, by all means. But remember: those articles are tainted with the fact that the authors have something to prove. They spent 2-3 years talking up this guy, if they are wrong on him, people start to doubt things.

The numbers don't lie. His peripherals are not good. That doesn't mean he won't be. He's only 22. Some players figure it out, others don't. So who knows?

But if you're trading a top 5 hitter in baseball, I'd imagine you'd want a guy with a little more promise than what Urias has shown. I just don't know who the Indians would want from the Padres organization that a) is MLB-ready and b) could immediately fill Lindor's spot and give positive production immediately.

Now, I could see Urias being moved, but without Tatis (who they obviously won't trade)

MacKenzie Gore, Luis Urias, Hudson Potts, Luis Patino.

That's a ton, but it's probably worth it. Then again, giving up Tatis (who is going to regress hardcore next season) for Lindor is worth it, but you're a Padres fan and probably can't see the truth if it smacked you in the face.

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02 Oct 2019 18:25:13
They sent him down after a week or so because they just signed kinsler and wanted to justify that. they figured give urias more time to develop. Only reason why he was sent down. Some guys take more time to grasp big league pitching than others. I’m not comparing urias to tatis because tatis is way better but my point is that’s the type of package they will get. A top 30 prospect, a top 40 and another top 100 . that’s plenty.

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02 Oct 2019 20:21:45
Well, let's put it this way, if he were hitting 135 wRC+ and playing stellar defense, they wouldn't have sent him down.

His wRC+ in the first half was 19. That's 81 percent worse than the average hitter in batter.

And no, Lindor will probably command two 20 ten prospects, along with MLB ready, controllable talent.

But nice try. I'll send your game check in the mail.

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02 Oct 2019 22:34:43
Was good going back with you and once again we shall see at the winter meetings.

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03 Oct 2019 00:57:33
I wouldn't get your hopes up.

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10 Sep 2019 15:30:45
Yankees Offseason


Designate Jacoby Ellsbury for Assignment


Trade

Indians get Luke Voit, Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Estevan Florial, and Jonathan Loaisiga

Yankees get Francisco Lindor


Free Agency

Let Brett Gardner, Cameron Maybin, and Edwin Encarnacion walk

Aroldis Chapman opts in

Resign Dellin Betances for 1 year and $10 million

Sign Gerrit Cole for 6 years and $180 million


Roster

Lineup

1B LeMahieu
RF Judge
SS Lindor
LF Stanton
C Sanchez
DH Andujar
2B Torres
3B Urshela
CF Hicks

Bench

C Romine
1B Ford
IF Wade
OF Tauchman

Rotation

Cole
Severino
Paxton
Tanaka
German

Bullpen

Happ (Swingman/Spot Starter)
Green (Opener/Middle Reliever)
Kahnle (Middle Reliever)
Ottavino (Middle Reliever)
Betances (7th Inning Setup Man)
Britton (8th Inning Setup Man)
Chapman (Closer)

Believable0 Unbelievable7

17 Sep 2019 16:36:25
What's up the pathetically terrible (but equally hilarious) Lindor trades on here lately?

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15 Aug 2019 13:33:32
White Sox Offseason


Chicago only has roughly $35 million in payroll taken up for 2020. With the young cheap talent they have, they can go out and make some moves.


Free Agents
SP Gerrit Cole 6 year $200 million
OF Marcel Ozuna 5 year $150 million
DH Jose Abreu 3 year $60 million


C- James McCann
1B- Zack Collins (Vaughn Midseason)
2B- Nick Madrigal
3B- Yoan Moncada
SS- Tim Anderson
LF- Eloy Jiminez
CF- Luis Robert
RF- Marcel Ozuna
DH- Jose Abreu

SP- Gerrit Cole
SP- Lucas Giolito
SP- Reynaldo Lopez
SP- Dylan Cease
SP- Michael Kopech

Believable13 Unbelievable6

08 Oct 2019 18:54:34
They will not have to go anywhere near 3/ 60 for Abreu. Think more 2/ 20 or 1 with a mutual option.

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