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20 Dec 2018 16:00:01
Dodgers trade verdugo, will Smith,Dennis Santana for kluber

Trade puig, Alex wood to reds for Homer Bailey, prospects. (To dump money)

Sign Harper 10 yr 350 mill with a player option after his 6th and 8th year and each year the money keeps increasing.

Sign veteran catcher.

Is this semi realistic?

Agree4 Disagree13

21 Dec 2018 02:47:17
Taking on Kluber, Bailey, and Harper is adding 75M in salary next year. Plus a veteran catcher at, let's say, 8M on average. After moving Wood and Puig, we're down to about 63M. That puts the Dodgers over 250M, estimated.

The owners have been very adamant about remaining under 200M next season. So I find this very unrealistic.

21 Dec 2018 14:02:46
Then they could also move Kemp and that would save them 23 mill.

21 Dec 2018 15:00:07
Who’s going to take him? I can’t imagine there are many interested parties and I can’t imagine the Dodgers are willing to attach a prospect to him just to get rid of him.

21 Dec 2018 21:59:39
The Reds took him, which is interesting. They only had to attach three very useful depth pieces to him.

AND, they are still expected to be over 180M in payroll. It'll be interesting to see what LA does.

21 Dec 2018 22:48:51
Apparently the Reds.

22 Dec 2018 20:52:00
I think the dodgers now either could trade for kluber or sign Harper.

If they trade Ryu or hill they could shed more salary and possibly get Harper and kluber.

Another possibility would be signing Pollock.

22 Dec 2018 23:38:06
If they want to stay under the luxury tax, they still don't have room for Harper.

23 Dec 2018 14:58:20
Part of the reason for the Puig/ Kemp trade was depth, they had way to many outfielders and they still have a logjam after this trade, so all the hype about them becoming front runners for Harper is overblown. Could they sign him, sure, will they, that remains to be seen.

20 Dec 2018 01:49:24
Angels sign Kikuchi
Skaggs-Calhoun-Jam Jones for Kluber

Rotation:
Kluber
Heaney
Kikuchi
Harvey
Barria.

Agree2 Disagree10

20 Dec 2018 06:42:14
That package wouldn't even get them Danny Salazar.

21 Dec 2018 19:43:49
I would like to see the angels sign kikuchi but that kluber trade is horrible.

19 Dec 2018 21:48:24
Blue jays get Jacob Webb and Grant Dayton
Braves get Brandon Drury.

Agree1 Disagree6

20 Dec 2018 01:34:40
I don't think Brandon Drury is very good, but I'd imagine the Blue Jays aren't trading him for that when he was the main guy they received for J. A. Happ.

20 Dec 2018 03:46:43
What would the Braves do with Drury?

19 Dec 2018 18:09:48
Rays remaining moves

TB: OF Sanchez (50FV), SP Baz (50FV), Fox (45FV), Linares (45FV)

MIA: C Realmuto

This package lacks a premier headliner like Kyle Tucker but is very rich in talent. All four prospects are on a similar trajectory and could impact the Marlins major league roster as early as 2020.

TB: C Zunino, 2B/3B Duffy

COL: SP Gray

With Realmuto on the roster, the Rays would look to flip Zunino to another club in need of everyday catcher. Duffy provides insurance at 2B and would be an option at 3B for 2020 if the Rockies are unable to extend Arrenado.

Sign DH Cruz for 1/15M with a vesting option (PA) for 2020

His agent has already said that Cruz thinks Tampa is the perfect fit for him but he is likely waiting to see if any better options present themselves, namely the Astros.

Sign RP Miller for 2/20M with option for 2021

Miller is a Florida native and currently lives in Tampa. The Rays give Miller the opportunity to close and lead a very talented young bullpen.

Sign Robbie Grossman for 1/4M

After being non-tendered by the Twins, the Rays could use the versatile switch hitter as a weapon against LHP in the outfield.

C Realmuto
1B Diaz/Choi
2B Wendle
SS Adames
3B Robertson
LF Meadows
CF Kiermaier
RF Pham
DH Cruz

C Perez
INF B Lowe
INF Choi/Diaz
OF Grossman

SP Snell
SP Morton
SP Gray
SP Glasnow

RP Font
RP Chirinos
RP Yarbrough
RP Roe
RP Stanek
SU Castillo
SU Alvardo
CL Miller

Agree1 Disagree4

19 Dec 2018 22:39:06
Both trades make sense. I think the price would have to come way down on Realmuto for that to be the return, though.

I don't see the Rays spending that much money, though. And I won't believe it until I actually see it.

19 Dec 2018 23:28:25
If you don't directly factor the 5M the Rays sent to SEA into the 2019 payroll, the Rays only sit at 46M right now. That means if you set the 2019 opening day payroll at 77M, same as 2018, the Rays have roughly 30 million still to play with. I think you would agree that with the addition of Morton and the connection they have maintained with Cruz and Realmuto, the Rays are "going for it" in 2019/ 20. Further, they are reportedly looking at adding a veteran closer, according to the local beat writer. What I have proposed is still under 70M.

The Realmuto trade is definitely a "bulk" trade. I just don't see them offering Franco or McKay as a headliner and it's already been reported that the Rays offered Sanchez for Goldschmidt. I could see the Rays offering the best aggregate value, but maybe the worst "headliner. "

20 Dec 2018 01:50:47
Your math is off. If it's 46M, then you'd be well over 70M after these additions.

46M + Cruz (15M) = 61M

61M + Miller (10M) = 71M

71M + Grossman (4M) = 75M

Realmuto (~6.1M) and Grey (~$2.3M) - Duffy (~2.6M) and Zunino (~4.2M) = 77.5M

Money for Encarnacion = 82.5M

You're over 80M. Cots Baseball Contract's projection puts them over 90M. That's without a veteran closer. That puts them over 100M. They've NEVER spent anything close to 100M.

So again, until they do it, I don't believe it.

20 Dec 2018 16:29:02
haha I have no idea what I was thinking. I'd like to blame it on being sick and being highly medicated. I have a minor in mathematics, making it even more sad.

The $5MM is accounted for in the budget as an expense and is not part of the "payroll". The Rays don’t work on a year to year budget, but a floating 3-5 year budget that if they spend less now they can spend it later or if they spend extra now they have to cut back in the future. So this does work against that in the books. This has been highly debated and it seems that this is the resolution we have come to.

Are your Cot's projections for 40 man roster at the end of the 2018 season? Typically, as I understand it, when projecting the "payroll, " aren't we generally just talking about the 25 man roster? I am just curious how you have them over 90 million without a close. Does that included everything else but the closer? Please provide a link if you can, I am curious to see this.

20 Dec 2018 17:46:44
1. No, Cot's is a projection for the current roster, taking into account Morton's salary.

2. The projections take into consideration players on league minimum contracts and projected arbitration salaries as well.

3. If you're going by Cot's current number of 55M (by the way, Cots, ran by Baseball Prospectus, is the best source for this info), and you add your numbers, you're already at 90M, that's before a closer.

4. Encarnacion's 5M is counted into the payroll. It's counted into the luxury tax, and the Rays were able to take it on because of "payroll flexibility", so for the purposes of this exercise, it counts as payroll.

5. As far as "who counts toward payroll", generally speaking, it's an aggregate of all the guys who appeared on the 25-man roster. I don't know what the exact figure is, but most teams pay a pretty standard average throughout the season of all the guys that rotate in and out of the major league roster.

6. As for how I got to that, I simply did the math as shown above. I took the 55M from Cots, added all your projected salaries, and then added a "veteran closer", who I'd guess will cost them 10-15M next season. That's over 100M after all the math gets complete. I just don't see it happening.

20 Dec 2018 23:03:14
Ahhh finally found it under "2018-23 payroll and tax tracker. " Totally forgot about the money they are sending to SF for Longoria as well. That probably accounts for some of the discrepancy. I always use the "mlbtraderumors" arbitration estimates as their formula/ methodology has proven to be very close to accurate. Thanks for the information though.

Also, you clear up some confusion, Miller is the "veteran closer" I was referencing. So that salary is already taken into account.

I was trying to keep everything under 80M, so it seems like my proposal needs some modifications. They could opt to trade for Jose Martinez instead of sign Cruz, they could sign a bounce back guy like Strickland or Parker to close games, and then obviously could just go with Heredia, making league min, over Grossman, The crux of the proposal was trading for Realmuto, adding a bat, and adding a reliever.

21 Dec 2018 02:39:13
Adding that caveat about Miller definitely clears up some confusion.

All in all, it's still over 90M as it stands. I just don't see it happening. Sternberg is way too cheap to pay that kind of money. And especially if he has to pay more to get his stadium, he won't.

Frankly, I think Charlie Morton is the most they'll do, and I bet he's gone by August when Sternberg wants his money back.

21 Dec 2018 02:42:47
Also, you don't want Strickland. The Giants could have gotten away with paying him less than 2M in arbitration this winter, and instead, they let him go.

That'll send signals across the league. If the Giants, who are looking for cheap depth, don't want a former closer at 2-3M, then most teams will opt to stay away.

He's a clubhouse nightmare. He ruined Michael Morse's career in that Bryce Harper brawl, he tanked his season punching a wall, and was a notorious pain in the ass in the locker room. For a team that puts up with Bumgarner and Samardzija, it says a lot they got rid of him.

You should loathe the day the Rays sign Strickland.

18 Dec 2018 14:41:09
Mets Remaining Offseason Moves

Trade

Mets
Michael Beltre

Reds
Juan Lagares
Jason Varges
$7 million (CIN pays $10 mil)

Reds need a CF and SP. Both players have 1 year remaining and the Mets are covering 40% of their salaries. This trade seems to benefit both parties. The Mets can use the savings on Pollock



Sign
AJ Pollock 3 years $55 million (4th year club-option for $18 million with $3 million buyout)

Agree3 Disagree6

18 Dec 2018 00:17:56
White Sox/Royals

White Sox Get:
Whit Merrifield INF/OF

Royals Get:
Dane Dunning RHP (#59)
Blake Rutherford OF (#77)
Luis Alexander Basabe OF
Konnor Pilkington LHP

If the White Sox get Harper or Machado (or both haha) and want to accelerate this rebuild, Merrifield would be fantastic get. He can literally play anywhere and has 4 years of control remaining. KC is at least 3 years from contention with their spending restrictions.

Merrifield could play either 3rd or center
depending on other FA signings.

Royals get some good prospects - especially Dunning who in all likelihood debuts in 2019.

Agree5 Disagree4

17 Dec 2018 03:30:48
Yankees get Walker Buehler and Yasiel Puig.

Dodgers get Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar.

Yankees then go out and sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

Agree2 Disagree13

17 Dec 2018 05:35:19
someone has pipe dreams.

18 Dec 2018 15:31:27
Why wouldn’t the Dodgers just sign Bryce Harper and keep Buehler?

16 Dec 2018 20:03:27
Indians get Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar
Yankees get Corey Kluber and Jason Kipnis.

Agree2 Disagree8

17 Dec 2018 13:21:17
It would take a lot more than that to get Kluber. Plus they aren't looking to trade him now that they shed other salaries.

14 Dec 2018 20:08:14
Braves

Sign Zach Britton 3/45

TRADE
Atlanta
Madison Bumgarner

San Francisco
Kyle Wright
Drew Waters


TRADE
Atlanta
Yasiel Puig

Los Angeles
Derian Cruz




C Brian McCann
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Josh Donaldson
SS Dansby Swanson
LF Ronald Acuna Jr
CF Ender Inciarte
RF Yasiel Puig

C Tyler Flowers
IF Charlie Culberson
OF Adam Duval
UT Johan Camargo


SP Madison Bumgarner
SP Mike Foltynewicz
SP Kevin Gausman
SP Sean Newcomb
SP Julio Terehan

SU Arodys Vizcaino
CL Zach Britton

Agree4 Disagree5

17 Dec 2018 16:32:37
You’ll have to give up a lot more for Bum.

14 Dec 2018 16:17:27
Random FA signing ideas

Red Sox sign Daniel Murphy. There's rumors there is interest in Brock Holt. If he is moved Murphy would be the ideal pickup for Boston. His bat is still great, even if his defense has deteriorated from not great to less great. I see him more as a 1B platoon with Pearce getting spot starts at 2B, but he would be a good insurance policy for Pedroia as well. Moreland might be worth something on the trade market as there isn't a ton in the way of 1B out there.

Mets sign Grandal.
This one seems too simple to me. d'Arnaud and Plawecki are clearly not the answer for New York. I like Realmuto, but I like Syndergaard AND Grandal more. Those two have arguably been the top two catchers in the league the last few years, both offensively and defensively. The fact Grandal didn't play in the playoffs is cause for some concern, but the Mets could use that in negotiations...and getting TO the playoffs is far from a bad goal for them in the first place.

Agree2 Disagree5

 


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